# Illya Gerasymchuk | Financial Markets, Macro, Bitcoin & Commodities

Articles by Illya Gerasymchuk on finance, central banks, liquidity flows, financial market structure, commodities, Bitcoin, crypto markets, machine learing and agentic AI systems.

## Author
- Name: Illya Gerasymchuk
- URL: https://illya.sh/
- Contact: mailto:hello@illya.sh

## Canonical Sections
- Thoughts: https://illya.sh/thoughts/
- Threads: https://illya.sh/threads/
- Thought Topics: https://illya.sh/thoughts/topics
- Thread Topics: https://illya.sh/threads/topics

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## Latest Thoughts (30)
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/portugal-real-estate-credit-not-immigration-drives-the
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/if-you-like-seatbelts-youll-like-addw
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/iran-to-require-rial-for-hormuz-toll-payments
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/are-us-financial-policies-mirroring-the-1720-mississippi
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/physical-spot-dated-brent-indeed-surpassed-100-per-barrel
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/iran-war-escalates-once-again-and-the-market-moves
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/although-s-p-500-is-unlikely-to-open-green-today-due-to
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-i-guess-brent-will-go-above-100-barrel-once-again-over
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/iran-is-the-legal-owner-of-frozen-assets
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/straight-of-hormuz-reopens-partially-and-markets-signal-de
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/bond-markets-signal-an-escalation-in-iran-war
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/bitcoin-cant-become-a-reserve-asset-without-protocol-changes
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/why-physical-oil-trades-above-paper-oil
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/iran-ceasefire-has-already-been-broken
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/iran-wont-accept-bitcoin-for-hormuz-tolls
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/as-i-correctly-explained-there-would-be-no-attacks-on-iran
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/unsurprisingly-the-deadline-for-iran-attack-had-been
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-iran-attack-deadline-will-be-extended
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/no-gold-is-not-in-a-bear-market
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-best-part-about-carefully-instructing-an-agent-to
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/dont-expect-60-oil-in-2026
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/and-just-like-that-highest-oil-prices-since-2022-just-a-few
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/going-long-on-bitcoin-now-at-68k-is-very-risky-and-maybe
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/crue-oil-united-states-acts-russia-benefits-once-again
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/reordering-of-a-5-billion-row-duckdb-table-completed
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/update-the-5-billion-row-table-reordering-in-duckdb-has-been
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/brent-crude-oil-breaks-above-90-and-its-headed-higher
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/who-wouldve-thought-that-reordering-5-billion-rows-in-a
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/2-billion-rows-and-counting-added-to-the-duckdb-table
- https://illya.sh/thoughts/using-duckdb-to-train-a-neural-network-on-500gb-of-price

## Latest Threads (30)
- https://illya.sh/threads/portugal-real-estate-credit-not-immigration-drives-the
- https://illya.sh/threads/if-you-like-seatbelts-youll-like-addw
- https://illya.sh/threads/iran-wont-accept-bitcoin-for-hormuz-tolls
- https://illya.sh/threads/are-us-financial-policies-mirroring-the-1720-mississippi
- https://illya.sh/threads/so-i-guess-brent-will-go-above-100-barrel-once-again-over
- https://illya.sh/threads/bond-markets-signal-an-escalation-in-iran-war
- https://illya.sh/threads/iran-is-the-legal-owner-of-frozen-assets
- https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-cant-become-a-reserve-asset-without-protocol-changes
- https://illya.sh/threads/iran-ceasefire-has-already-been-broken
- https://illya.sh/threads/as-i-correctly-explained-there-would-be-no-attacks-on-iran
- https://illya.sh/threads/the-iran-attack-deadline-will-be-extended
- https://illya.sh/threads/dont-expect-60-oil-in-2026
- https://illya.sh/threads/crude-oil-prices-continue-to-increase
- https://illya.sh/threads/crue-oil-united-states-acts-russia-benefits-once-again
- https://illya.sh/threads/using-duckdb-to-train-a-neural-network-on-500gb-of-price
- https://illya.sh/threads/random-forest-cat-an-ml-trading-factory
- https://illya.sh/threads/why-high-oil-prices-are-bad-for-usd-hint-china-credit
- https://illya.sh/threads/using-neural-networks-to-find-imbalances-in-limit-order
- https://illya.sh/threads/out-of-sample-permutation-feature-importance-for-random
- https://illya.sh/threads/vibe-coding-vulnerabilities-with-claude-code
- https://illya.sh/threads/proxy-model-from-polymarkets-15-minute-bitcoin-price
- https://illya.sh/threads/primary-dealers-failures-to-settle-implications-for-risk
- https://illya.sh/threads/the-random-forest-that-guides-my-model-factory-needs
- https://illya.sh/threads/china-banned-gold-silver-as-money-in-1983
- https://illya.sh/threads/gold-outperformed-bitcoin-in-the-last-8-years
- https://illya.sh/threads/how-usa-profited-70-on-gold-in-1-year
- https://illya.sh/threads/central-bank-of-russia-denies-return-to-usd-payments
- https://illya.sh/threads/overfitting-in-machine-learning-models-visualized
- https://illya.sh/threads/fact-check-russia-moving-back-to-usd
- https://illya.sh/threads/my-trading-ml-factory-yielded-22-return-on-gold-on-a-daily