Tariffs, trade policy & market impact
Updates on tariff announcements, trade negotiations and their effects on FX, commodities and risk assets.
🇷🇺 Russia is immune to US tariffs
Russia's international reserves are as follows:
- 0.007% US Treasury bonds
- 35% Gold
Russia exports <1% to the US. Russia is a net exporter
This makes them protected from US sovereign risk (USD devaluation) & trade risk
Sure, if you:
Put tariffs
Lower interest rates
Remove tariffs
the maket will skyrocket
But that also means increased:
Asset bubble
Inflation
Public debt/deficit
Tariff income won't offset it
Monitor the hedge fund's shorts on risky assets, and when the
One of the core ideas behind the tariffs is to solve US's the trade deficit by incentivizing other countries to import from the US - I'm deriving this from the 'tariff' formula
So by importing more from US - you get lower/no tariffs
That won't work. Over the medium term the
Do not browse insider trading SEC filings on EDGAR directly
There's a Python library called edgartools - much better, cleaner & you can directly extract the data
Now go find alpha factors that you can use next time worldwide tariffs are set
Insider Trading Before Tariffs
If you're curious about how insiders were buying/selling their equity positions, head over to @SECGov's EDGAR & check for Form 4 & 3 filings
Here's the latest one from $AAPL
Tariffs are just a distraction from the fact that orange juice futures are down over 50% 🍊
This tariffs-induced volatility is the dream of every trader
Clearing houses are banking from fees & comissions
Finally, risky-assets/DeFi/crypto volatility coming to your favorite regulated exchange
What's even the point of all the regulations in TradFi?
🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 BRICS & Tariffs
Amid the collective chaos there is a group of nations set to benefit from President Trump's tariffs
HINT: it's not the USA ❌🇺🇸
BRICS got geopolitical justification for their existence
Tariff-free zone + local currency trade acts as insurance http
🇮🇳 India has accumulated a massive trade deficit
India imports from China, Russia & then exports to USA & UAE. The imports are also similar to exports & a lot of it is re-exports
This deficit isn't sustainable of course https://t.co
Who's selling silver? 😭
📉 CDFs are down 15% on the day 🤯
I guess it's a tariffs freebie 🤷♀️
🚨 Financial Stress Index Tariffs Update
Trump/US tariffs so far:
⬇️ Equity valuation down
⬆️ Volatility up
⬆️ Safe assets up
⬆️ Credit spread up
📈 A perfect setup for the increase of OFR's Financial Stress Index
Let's see - it's updated with a 2 day delay
🤯 USD/EUR down 3 cents overnight
🇺🇸 An immediate response to Trump/USA import tariffs
This is Bitcoin-level volatility in FOREX
Volatility is a measure of risk. What does this mean for the US Dollar?
🚨 Bitcoin Reacts To US Tariffs:
As expected, a massive BTC sell-off post Trump's tariffs announcement
The price peaked during the speech, and then dumped down more than 6% so far + US dollar index is down
A move away from riskier assets & USD into Gold & foreign currencies https://
🚨 🇷🇺🇨🇳🇪🇺🇯🇵 reacting to US tariffs
The initial FOREX response to tariffs is a net outflow from #USD
US dollar fell against major currencies. The Euro fell against both the Chinese Yuan/renminbi & the Russian Ruble
Interesting, but expected having #RUB & #Yuan gain from this https://
🔴 $BTC, $DXY & $XAU during Trump's tariffs speech
Interesting to observe the negative correlation between Bitcoin & US Dollar Index
Gold wasn't clearly correlated with either. This makes sense - the tariffs lead to uncertainty regarding the reserve currency & central bank… https://t.co
🚨Trump's Tariffs Update - 🇨🇳, 🇯🇵, 🇰🇷
Not only tariffs are tanking the US economy, but their strongest partners are looking elsewhere
Unsurprisingly, Asia will find other buyers for their products - they have the upper hand, not 🇺🇸 or 🇪🇺 - a result of perpetual import deficits…
Bad news for #USD 👎
The value of a currency is a direct reflection of the organic demand for it. Sanctions will decrease the demand for US Dollar, via disincentives
Plus, it's the US consumer that will be paying for the tariffs, not the BRICS countries 🤷♀️