👋 Hi! I'm Illya Gerasymchuk 💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭 🏠 Homepage: https://illya.sh 🧠 Thoughts: https://illya.sh/thoughts/ 📝 Blog: https://illya.sh/blog/ 💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭 ⏰ 2026-01-14 12:15 Putin Instructed Central Bank of Russia To Buy Gold In 2005 In 20 years, Russia's share of gold in their central bank's international reserves account increased by a factor of ≈12.1 times. At the start of 2026, gold represents ≈43% of Bank of Russia's (BoR) international reserves. Back in 2005, gold accounted for a mere ≈3.5% of the same reserves account. The move to gold was mainly motivated by the desire to diversify away from the U.S. Dollar and the explicit goal of increasing BoR's holdings of gold relative to foreign exchange assets. On November 22nd 2005 Putin stated: ➖ "I believe it's necessary for the Central Bank to pay more attention to precious metals within the territory of the Russian Federation when forming gold and foreign-currency reserves. Those reserves are even called 'gold and foreign-currency' reserves. There's nothing to be shy about here." Since Vladimir Putin instructed Bank of Russia to start buying more gold, gold is up ≈840%, i.e. almost 10 times. In the same period, S&P 500 TR increased ≈726%, or almost 9 times. This means that Putin's strategy outperformed the U.S. stock market index by ≈14%. Perhaps the president of Russia should start his own investment fund? ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2026-01-13 12:05 You can read the full article on gold revaluation, its low-level mechanics and impact on the U.S. here ⬇️ https://illya.sh/threads/gold-revaluation-will-not-solve-the-us-debt-problem ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2026-01-13 12:02 If you want to invest in copper miners, just go with the Global X Copper Miners ETF This is especially true if your main goal is getting exposure to the price action in the copper mining segment without spending too much time on it. Not saying that you shouldn't invest in individual equities, but don't invest in a company just because someone mentioned their ticker on the internet. Diversifying makes all of the sense in these cases in terms of risk/reward. This exchange-traded fund is domiciled in the U.S., but also available to retail EU investors via an equivalent UCITS product, so you should be able to find it listed by your preferred broker. Fund information: ➖ Ticker: COPX ➖ U.S. ISIN: US37954Y8306 ➖ EU ISIN: IE0003Z9E2Y3 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2026-01-12 17:45 So silver didn't top for the cycle, 2011 didn't repeat and instead less than 2 weeks later it hit another all time high Imagine my surprise 😄 More all time highs are coming and, as I've written before, you can safely ignore any calls for long-term top. You can't find a top on chart without understanding what drives the price on that chart in the first place. Luckily for you - I've written a lot of explanations on that when it comes to gold and silver 📖 Quoting from 2025-12-30 01:40: ┌─ Silver didn't even break its 4 hour trend support on the pullback and many are already calling that it has topped for the cycle 😂 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2026-01-10 15:56 Congratulations to Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae in their first steps at becoming a central bank Looks like it's not just the Fed doing MBS-targeted QE now. Why control the Fed, when you can just move the Fed? 😆 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2026-01-08 12:13 Venezuela's Central Bank Monetary Gold Holdings Constitute ≈20% of Their Balance Sheet Gold is also ≈47% of Venezuela's international reserve assets. This comes directly from Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV), which reports a total of ≈53 tonnes of gold worth ≈0.6 Trillion VES (Venezuelan Bolívar, also known as Bs), or ≈5.58 billion USD. In 2021, Reuters reported that ≈31 tonnes of Venezuela's Centeal Bank gold was stored in the UK, under the custody of Bank of England (BoE). A quick search didn't yield precise figures for 2026, as it appears that that information is not reported publicly in detail. The access to that gold at BoE is currently blocked, over a legal dispute regarding who has the authority/control over that gold - Maduro-appointed BCV board or Guaidó-appointed board. Thus, a significant portion of Venezuela's gold is abroad and frozen, which matters in terms of geopolitical risk. BNV's 20% are relatively high gold amounts against the central bank's total balance sheet size, surpassing U.S.'s Fed (≈16%), China's PBoC (≈5%) and just above European Union's ECB + Eurosystem (≈19.1%), but well behind Russia's BoR (≈36%). ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2026-01-06 13:03 Bulgraria has been pegged to Euro since 1999 🇧🇬 Bulgaria has adopted Euro as its official currency and legal tender on January 1st 2026. As you may have expected, there is now a lot of discourse about how this is bad for Bulgaria, because Euro is bad and Bulgaria has now given up their "monetary sovereignty". What the ones pushing that narrative have not expected is for the Bulgarian lev (BGN) to be a proxy for Euro for almost 3 decades now. So it's not very clear which sovereignty Bulgaria gave up on January 1st 2026, when it became a full Eurozone member. Since 1997 Bulgaria has operated under a currency board arrangement (CBA), which is an exchange rate regime where a country commits to keep its local currency to a fixed exchange rate against an anchor currency. Under CBA, the adhering country fixes the exchange rate of its local currency to an anchor currency, its national central bank fully backs its monetary liabilities with foreign reserves (to create local currency the national central bank must have foreign currency assets to back it up, thus ensuring stable convertibility), and the country foregoes its right to adapt discretionary monetary policy (e.g. inflation rate targeting). On July 1st 1997, Bulgaria introduced the currency board, pegging lev (BGL) to the Deutsche Mark (DM). On January 1st 1999, Bulgaria switched the anchor currency from Deutsche Mark to Euro, with the exchange rate fixed at €1 = 1.95583 BGN (≈0.5 BGN/EUR). So the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) neither had the sovereignty to manage the broad and base supplies of its local currency (Bulgarian lev/BGL/BGN), nor to freely pursue monetary policies since July 1st 1997. Given this, any discourse about how Bulgaria's entry into the Eurozone implies a dramatic change to its monetary sovereignty is likely unfounded. It didn't happen overnight - it's been an almost 30 year long process. Joining the Eurozone does, however, remove the pegging frictions for Bulgaria, and allows them to fully integrate into the monetary union. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2026-01-05 13:54 The U.S. Violated International Law By Attacking Venezuela and Capturing Maduro Both the U.S. and Venezuela are signees & parties of the UN Charter, making it a legally binding treaty for both countries. This means that both of the countries are forbidden from using force against sovereign states, as per Article 2(4), which states: ➖ "All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations." Crossing the border with military force to seize someone is clearly a "use of force" against that state, meaning it's a violation of the provision. There are some exceptions to Article 2(4), such as self-defense in responding to an armed attack (Article 51), prior authorization for force by the UN Security Council and . United State's actions do not fall under those exceptions. As such, USA is in violation of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, making their actions illegal under the international law. Even if the U.S. that they are not in violation of their national laws, they would still be violating the international law. Vienna Convention on The Law of Treaties (VCLT) is the "treaty about treaties", by outlining base rules for how treaties are made, interpreted, applied and ended. Article 27 of VCLT states: ➖ "A party may not invoke the provisions of its internal law as justification for its failure to perform a treaty." Regarding VCLT, the U.S. signed it in April 1970, but they didn't ratify it/they're not a party in it, meaning it's not a directly legally binding treaty for the U.S. However, U.S. courts often treat VCLT as an authoritative guide to customary international law of treaties. Additionally, Article 103 of the UN Charter puts the obligations outlined in the UN Charter above any other treaty obligations, meaning that Article 2(4) must be respected: ➖"In the event of a conflict between the obligations of the Members of the United Nations under the present Charter and their obligations under any other international agreement, their obligations under the present Charter shall prevail." If the U.S. takes military action against Cuba, Cambodia, Denmark (Greenland) or any other sovereign in a similar manner, it would equally be a violation of the international law. Interestingly enough, in 1945 the U.S. helped to draft the same UN Charter that it is now violating. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2026-01-04 16:11 It's NOT about paying the debt, but BEING ABLE to pay the debt This is true for corporations, individuals and governments: ➖ For corporations, debt provides a tax shield (interest payments is an accounting expense) ➖ For individuals, it allows to front-run price increase in a monetary debasement/inflationary economy ➖For governments, it allows for more flexibility in pursuing their macroeconomic, social, geopolitical and monetary policy goals. Why do you think central banks have gold and foreign currencies in their balance sheet backing up their local currency? It's about having enough assets and liquidity to cover your liabilities. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2026-01-04 16:09 Gold is special because it's nobody's liability ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2026-01-04 15:47 Misinformation About Venezuela's Gold Reserves Is Spreading 🇻🇪 It appears that once a large finance account on X posts misinformation about Venezuela's gold reserves, many other large-following X accounts repost it without even bothering to verify the information. Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV) doesn't have anywhere close to 161 tonnes of gold - those are numbers from 2017. BCV's balance sheet report, alongside the auxiliary notes released with it (specifically Note 7) from June 30th 2025 point at ≈53 tonnes of gold, which is less than a third of the claimed 161 tonnes of gold figure. I know this for a fact, because I checked that balance sheet statement myself. On my feed, the incorrect 161 tonnes figure started with @KobeissiLetter post earlier today, from there, it continues to spread throughout numerous accounts, many of which have followings in the millions. My goal is not to criticize or attack the accounts spreading this incorrect information, but to incentivize checking the information yourself before reposting/spreading it. In a follow-up post I'll do a more detailed breakdown of BCV's balance sheet, especially in terms of gold, so stay tuned. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2026-01-04 09:48 As or 2026, Venezuela has ≈53 tonnes of gold, not 161 I've taken these numbers directly from Banco Nacional de Venezuela (BCV) balance sheet for 30th June 2025. I am now seeing claims about Venezuela having 161 tonnes of gold, which are incorrect. The 161 tonnes likely refers to the 2017 amounts BCV held. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2026-01-03 19:47 In 2017, Venezuelan Central Bank (Banco Central de Venezuela/BCV) held ≈162 tonnes of monetary gold in its balance sheet By 2025, that number was reduced by ≈67%, down to ≈53 tonnes. I'll do a more detailed breakdown of Venezuela's gold holdings relative their balance sheet size in a follow-up post. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2026-01-03 08:27 Ruble was the best performing major currency of 2025, and it's easy to understand why What Russia did is replace USD-denominated securities (treasuries, bonds, etc) with gold. Gold is almost 40% of Russia's Central bank balance sheet, compare it to ≈20% for European Union, ≈16% for U.S. and ≈5% for China. This leaves Russia's central bank with a massive balance sheet capacity for the future and supports the Ruble price. There's also the National Wealth Fund, which commits to buying gold when Urals oil is sold/traded above a certain price. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2026-01-02 18:37 The big play on precious metals mining stocks is that production costs remain (much) smaller than the metal's spot price For gold - the cost to produce/mine 1 oz is roughly $2000. Then, those same miners sell it for more than $4000. Instant >$2000 profit per ounce (again, rough numbers) 😄 So from the current levels, assuming production costs increase less than the spot price of the metal - miners win big. I believe this will be the case. I wrote a more detailed article explains gold mining costs and miner profits here: https://illya.sh/threads/1-oz-of-gold-production-cost-and-miner-profit ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2026-01-02 15:09 LLMs & AI Agents Didn't Replace Programming - They Evolved It I've been programming with LLMs since 2022, implementing systems of varied complexity, both professionally and exploratory/hobby projects. And I will continue to do so in 2026. However, it's important to be aware of its limits. Vibe/agent coding for critical systems doesn't work well (yet). You'll also be disappointed if you're trying to do something with financial markets (e.g. Machine-Learning based models). Vibe coded apps also frequently come with security vulnerabilities (for many apps this may be an acceptable compromise). I don't think you'd be comfortable with driving a vehicle with all of its software vibe-coded, or with all code written by an agentic system, without thorough human investment. LLMs are good at solving problems that have been solved many time before, but this abstraction quickly breaks apart if you delve with them into less developed topics, which frequent tend to be more complex. Pattern matching based prediction is very powerful, but you need enough patterns to learn from, alongside the correct context. Additionally, vibe-coding a large codebase is one thing, while maintaining that same codebase is another. Autopilot in commercial airplanes didn't deprecate carbon-based human pilots, but it did deprecate pilots who didn't commit to learning and integrating autopilot during the flight. So is programming really dead, or has it merely evolved? 🤔 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2026-01-01 20:37 Bulgarian Lev has been pegged to Euro since 1999 Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) has been operating under a currency board arrangement (CBA) regime since 1997. First, it was pegged to the Deutsche Mark, then to the Euro. They also redenominated their currency from Old Bulgarian Lev (BGL) to New Bulgarian Lev (BGN). Under CBA, BNB's monetary liabilities must be fully covered by foreign reserves. In other words, if Bulgaria's Central Bank wanted to increase the base money supply of their national currency (i.e. monetary liabilities on BNB's balance sheet), they needed to foreign reserve assets backing them up at a fixed rate of 1 EUR ≈ 1.96 BGN. In practice, ≈90% of BNB's reserves were Euro-denominated, which makes sense, since BGN is pegged to the Euro. For those claiming that by adopting the Euro as its official currency on January 1st 2026 Bulgaria has given up its monetary sovereignty - how exactly? BNB has been extremely limited in pursuing discretionary monetary policies since 1997. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-12-31 18:26 Gold hasn't even touched its daily level uptrend support and finance accounts on X are already calling for a top I have been writing my price thesis on gold for 2 years now, and since my call in December 2023 gold's price is up ≈125%. In the last day or 2025 my call is that this uptrend will continue. Regarding local tops, it's worth noting that gold has been in one for over 2 months now. Additionally, closes below a seemingly arbitrary 4H support line drawn on a chart does not imply any significant top or trend reversal. Gold can go down to $3900 and still be in an uptrend! TA & charting is supportive, as it gives you hints about what the market is doing, but on its own it can't provide you with a high-confidence prediction of the future. If you lack the foundation on the basis of the price action of an asset, you'll find it much more challenging to distinguish a dip from a longer-term trend reversal. I've written several articles explaining why gold's price will keep going up, in terms of currency debasement, refinancing cycles, global liquidity and geopolitical pressures. You can access those threads/articles on my website free or cost. They'll provide you with a solid basis for understanding gold, where its price headed and why. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-12-31 17:51 The same X accounts that were telling you to buy the Bitcoin dip on October 1st 2025, are now telling you to sell Silver on December 31st 2025 Since October 1st: ➖Bitcoin down ≈40% ➖Silver up ≈80% Their silver top calls will age as well, as the Bitcoin dip calls earlier this year 😄 The markets gave you an early 2026 present in the form of a systemic commodity price correction - and it's up to you to take it or not Happy 2026 🥳 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-12-31 15:13 Uranium, nuclear energy, electrical grid, lithium and copper have been added to my list Electrification will continue to increase, and that requires not only the production of electricity, but also the setup of all of the electrical infrastructure. AI runs on electricity, data centers need electricity and strong demand for electric lithium-battery powered vehicles (EVs) is here to stay for at least another decade. You can invest in them using your favorite broker - there's plenty of ETFs, ETCs and equities. For Uranium and nuclear energy - there are several ETFs that give you exposure to producers, distributors and infrastructure (e.g. nuclear plant maintenance). Electrical grid investments can be done by acquiring equity in companies that expand and maintain it. Not recommending any particular investment instruments, but the attached image provides you with a starter list. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-12-30 16:11 Gold hasn't even touched its daily support line from October 2025 In fact, gold price could fall under $4300 and still be above that support (green line on the chart). This discounts all theories suggesting a long-term top at current price levels. Gold's price action clearly suggests the continuation of the uptrend into 2026. This dip is a buying opportunity ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-12-30 01:40 Silver didn't even break its 4 hour trend support on the pullback and many are already calling that it has topped for the cycle 😂 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-12-29 22:50 M2 Money Supply Is A Bad Measure of Global Liquidity If you're using M2/M3 as a measure of global liquidity, you're under accounting for at least half of "global money supply". Here's some USD-centric data: ➖ U.S. M2 supply: ≈$23T ➖ U.S. Money Market Funds: ≈$8T ➖ U.S. Repo Markets: ≈$13T These are USD/U.S. focused figures, so they don't account for global liquidity per se (e.g. PBoC's balance sheet is larger than Fed's), but they do show how M2 falls short of being an accurate proxy for the measure of global monetary/currency supply. I've written several articles on global liquidity and how to measure it. You can read them free of cost in the threads section of my website. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-12-29 18:51 Silver is up ≈193% in 2025, but it only takes a ≈16% pullback for large finance accounts on X to suggest it has topped 😄 No, it's not the top for Silver yet and it's not hitting $50 this week The current pullback in the price of silver & silver miners is a buying opportunity ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-12-29 16:09 Today's gold, silver and their miners sell-off is a buying opportunity Treat it as an early new year's gift for 2026 🥳 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-12-29 16:05 China Is Hoarding Commodities While the U.S. is pumping a crypto & AI bubble, China is pumping their commodity reserves. Not only PRC is limiting silver exports, but they're also lowering the cost of commodity-related imports. The net result will be more positive commodity import/export ratio, i.e. more physical commodities within China, which will be used for strategic and industrial needs (China is the world's number one producer). It also means that there will be less commodities available outside of PRC, and since the global demand won't decrease - that's further positive price pressure on the commodity sector. I have been writing about gold, silver and other commodities for over 2 years. The same bullish narrative remains valid. These geopolitical developments provide further confirmation. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-12-06 15:51 Laptop as a Meshtastic LoRa Node Using ESP32, BLE and Python Meshtastic exposes a BLE interface and comes with a nice Python library. So I connected to the ESP32 with a LoRA module over bluetooth, and was able to send and receive messages from a Python script running on a laptop. Essentially, the laptop uses the microcontroller as a proxy for the sub-GHz antenna (EU_868/≈868 MHz in Europe), enabling it to send and receive LoRa messages via Meshtastic's firmware. So effectively Bluetooth Low Energy is used as a proxy protocol for LoRa. There were two nodes in the mesh - one connected to the laptop and another to a smartphone. Both nodes had the same channel name, Pre-Shared Key (PSK) and ordering (channel id) setup. The laptop node was using Python to connect to the mesh via BLE and exchange messages. The smartphone was connected to the other node, and the official Meshtastic app was used to send and receive messages. The setup is as follows: 💻 Laptop (Python) ⇅ BLE 📡 Node A (ESP32 + LoRa) ≈≈≈ 868 MHz LoRa mesh ≈≈≈ 📡 Node B (ESP32 + LoRa) ⇅ BLE 📱 Phone (Meshtastic app) So you don't really need to program the ESP32 to make it a "smart" LoRa node. You can program all of the logic on your usual dev machine, and use BLE as a proxy for LoRa packets over Meshtastic. This is a great approach for iterative development, prototyping, proof of concepts and even final products. Of course, you can also put the smart node code on a Raspberry Pi, Arduino or even the microcontroller itself. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-12-05 09:00 Added Semantic Categorization Via Embeddings To Articles/Threads On My Website You can now filter my articles by topic at https://illya.sh/threads/topics/ Qwen3-Embedding-0.6B is used to vectorize and embed all of the articles/threads, which are then tagged/categorized based on natural language tags for the category. This allows me to define a new category by defining a new Python class with the topic/category name, description, URL path, and the query sting to embed and query against the thread embeddings. From there, all of the content is generated statically. Everything runs 100% locally/offline. Model weights are pre-downloaded once - that's the most time-consuming part. The motivation for implementing this has to with the content's volume. I have written over 180 articles/threads, but until now there was no categorization. So if you wanted to read an article on a particular topic, you'd either have to google it, ask an LLM or go through the list manually yourself. Now, there is an index with topics, which help navigating the content semantically. Navigate to https://t.co/bXb1JWKD4d, select a topic, and you will be presented paginated list of all threads/articles matching that topic. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-12-04 19:22 A few months ago I wrote about LoRA meshes So I got a pair of ESP32 devices with a LoRA radio module. They already came pre-flashed with Meshtastic Took minutes to setup the mesh and send/receive messages. In my tests, the range was Impressive for such a small device at ≈$10 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-26 15:06 Central Banks were more influenced by farming than you probably think Historically interest, collateral, liquidity, inflation and monetary policies were shaped by the needs, risks and patterns of agricultural economies ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-24 15:34 A Primer On Strategy/MSTR Business, Financials, Liquidity and Solvency There's a lot of misinformation how Strategy/MicroStrategy operates, its business model and what MSTR can and can't do. This served as a motivation for me to write 4 short, primer-style articles on MSTR: 1️⃣ MSTR’s business model, describing how the company operates as a "Bitcoin treasury" and what does it mean for its solvency. You can read it here: https://illya.sh/threads/microstrategy-is-dependent-on-refinancing-capacity-not 2️⃣ Why MicroStrategy can’t replay its debt using equity/stock. You can read it here: https://illya.sh/threads/microstrategy-cant-repay-its-debt-in-equity-stock 3️⃣ How Strategy pays for its interest, which currently accounts to ≈$40M/year. You can read it here: https://illya.sh/threads/how-microstrategy-pays-interest-on-its-debt   4️⃣ How Strategy's marketing is misleading regarding MSTR’s risk, liquidity and solvency. You can read it here: https://illya.sh/threads/strategy-invents-financial-metrics-and-everybody-applauds I suggest reading them in the same order as above, but they're self-isolated. It's a short read, and together they will give you a good understanding on how Strategy operates (its business model), what are its main risks, what MSTR can and cannot do regarding debt repayments, and why you probably shouldn’t trust their marketing campaigns, including the statements made by Michael Saylor on X and various podcasts/videos where he appears. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-23 16:11 How the 1916 Fed Act Made Treasuries Prime Collateral Before 1916, the Fed would only lend to banks against "eligible paper", which included self-liquidating commercial loans and agricultural loans. The Federal Reserve Act 1916 amendment expanded the Fed's legal power to allow for lending to commercial banks against U.S. Treasuries (government bonds). This effectively turned U.S. government debt into collateral backing Fed's liabilities. This paved the way for the U.S. Treasuries to become the most used form of collateral in short-term wholesale debt markets (e.g. repo/repurchase agreements) today. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-23 13:58 1 oz of Gold: Production Cost and Miner Profit 1 oz of gold costs ≈$1500 to mine (AISC), ≈10$ to transport and refine and another ≈$400 in various other expenses. In total, that sums to about ≈$1910 to get 1 ounce of gold from the ground to bullion gold bar. Currently, gold trades at ≈$4100/oz (when you're reading this it's probably much higher 😄). This means there is about $4100-$1910=$2190 of margin on each ounce of refined gold. Almost all of this margin on the sale of an ounce of gold is pocketed by gold miners. Let's compute the profit per ounce of gold from the perspective of a miner. Gold miners generally sell gold to refineries at a fixed haircut over the spot price. This haircut is generally very small, ≈$10 which accounts mainly for refining and treatment costs. So with the numbers above (also see attached image), gold miners are making a profit of $4100-$(1500+400+10)=$2190 (the same number we computed above). The larger the premium/gap of gold's spot price over its production costs, the larger is the profit for the miners. As the cost of labor and industrial production increases due to global monetary debasement, so will gold production costs. The same monetary debasement, combined with strong demand for gold will push its price further up. In the next 2-3 years, I expect gold price to increase by a larger proportion than gold mining costs, as gold is under several positive price pressure points (central banks, USD alternatives, monetary debasement, etc). Thus, the margin over mining costs should remain high, leading to a sustained high profit per ounce of gold for miners. This is why gold mining stocks are currently a great investment. The same is true for other miners, such as silver. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-23 01:34 1 oz of Bullion Gold Costs ≈$1910 to Produce Gold's current spot price is ≈$4100. There's a ≈$2190 price gap between what gold costs to buy and what it costs to mine & refine. The majority of that $2190 profit per 1 ounce of gold goes to the miners. Gold refiners earn just a few dollars per ounce in profit. This is why mining stocks are currently such a good investment idea. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-21 20:38 Updated OpenGraph Images On Thoughts & Threads At My Website Before the OG image was always a "screenshot" of the starting text. Now, if the post or article has an attached image (most of them do), it gets used instead. Here's an example: https://illya.sh/threads/how-microstrategy-pays-interest-on-its-debt ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-21 14:07 Strategy Invents Financial Metrics And Everybody Applauds 👏 MSTR's own website states that their reports do not reflect the financial reality: "None of BTC Rating, BTC Credit, or BTC Risk are measures of financial results or liquidity, or key performance indicators." Strategy's software business also operates at a ≈$60M loss, but on their website and socials they decide to ignore a part of expenses and market it as profit. So they create their own non-standard accounting and credit metrics and advertise those. Strategy has a consistent pattern of misrepresenting their financials to look more favorable in their public marketing campaigns. A lot of it is in the form of Michael Saylor's videos, podcast appearances and posts on X. A lot seem to think that just because someone says something in a video or a social media post it must be true. Words can be deceiving, numbers not so much. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-20 16:41 In Net Terms, Bitcoin is a Geopolitical Liability, Not an Asset This is because Bitcoin is vulnerable to attacks targeting its consensus and network availability. A sufficiently resourceful adversary can yield the Bitcoin network inoperable and/or untrustable A nation state adversary can take the Bitcoin network down, at least a significant portion of it. And it doesn't require them having access to quantum computers or compromising the underlying cryptographic primitives in other manner. This is why sovereign strategic Bitcoin reserves, including BTC as a Central Bank reserve asset is not a good idea, at least in the current state and design of the Bitcoin protocol. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-20 08:56 How MicroStrategy Pays Interest On Its Debt? The short answer is that MSTR finances its debt service via a mixture of: ➖ Software business cashflow ➖ Existing reserves & short-term investments ➖ Capital market instruments, such as issuing new equity or debt ➖ Asset liquidation (Bitcoin sales) MSTR's annual coupon payments sum up to ≈$34.6M/year. Currently, virtually all of MSTR's financial debt is in convertible bonds/senior notes. Those bonds come with small coupons, so relatively small interest payments. More specifically, here is how MicroStrategy's/Strategy's outstanding outstanding convertible bond maturity, principal, coupon rate and total yearly interest look like: 2028 | $1.01B @ 0.625% | $6.3M 2029 | $3.0B @ 0% | $0M 2030A | $0.8B @ 0.625% | $5M 2030B | $2.0B @ 0% | $0M 2031 | $0.604B @ 0.875% | $5.3M 2032 | $0.8B @ 2.25% | $18M (Format: | @ | ) If you sum up the interest payments you’ll get ≈$34.6M/year in total. The yearly revenue of MSTR's software services business is almost ≈$500M/year. However, their software portion of the business actually operates at ≈60M/year loss, when using U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). Strategy advertises their software portion of the business as being in profit, but they "manipulate" those numbers a little. This "manipulation" involves MSTR not counting stock-based compensation as expenses. So when you hear Strategy advertising profit from their software business - they're not using a legally recognized and standardized measure of profit (in the U.S. it's GAAP). So they take the GAAP software profit and then add some things back at their discretion (i.e. they don't count some expenses), thus turning a negative profit (loss) into a positive one. This means that while their software business revenue can help them with having liquidity for interest payments - it doesn't cover those costs (since they operate at loss, it actually increases the total cost!). Thus, Strategy finances their interest rate payments with a mixture of: ➖ Existing reserves & short-term investments ➖ Capital market instruments, such as issuing new equity or debt (main source) ➖ Asset liquidation The software revenue provides significant cashflow (compared to interest rate costs), so it can help with having cash readily available to make an interest payment (liquidity), but it doesn't effectively cover them, thus requiring financing from other sources. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-18 14:54 Strategy (MSTR) pays interest on its debt via a mixture of capital markets, software business cashflow, existing reserves & investments and Bitcoin sales. MSTR's annual coupon payments are not that high - ≈$40M/year. The convertible bonds that they issue come with small coupons (e.g. 0%, 0.625%, %0.875, 2.25%) Given MSTR's software business revenue of ≈$500M/year, but it actually operates at a ≈$60M loss after expenses are accounted for. So effectively, strategy pays interest expenses from the same corporate funds bucket that they rase to purchase Bitcoin in capital markets. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-17 12:44 Europe's Gold Imports and Exports Explained Europe has gold mines in Finland, Sweden, Türkiye and Romania among others. Together they account for <2% of world output (≈70 tones of gold/year). Europe is heavily dependent on gold imports, with >90% of the gold for its needs being imported. Switzerland is the world's largest gold refining and transit hub, with at least ≈50% of all of the newly minted gold passing through Swiss refineries. Refining and re-exporting is by far the largest driver of European gold imports. Europe imports ≈3900 tones of gold per year, but only keeps 10% of it. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-16 23:01 MicroStrategy Can't Repay Its Debt In Equity/Stock Most of MicroStrategy's debt is in the form of convertible bonds, meaning that by default the principal and the coupons get repaid the cash. The "convertible" part means the bondholder can choose to convert the bond into shares/equity instead, and then MSTR chooses how settle the conversion of the bond's value in cash, equity or mix. So MSTR cannot force the debt settlement/repayment in stock/equity - that's simply an option that the bondholders/investors have. The repayment can always be in cash assuming that MSTR is solvent, as most of the debt is unsecured, meaning that there is no specific collateral pledged against that debt. In case of insolvency, unsecured debt holders are treated as general creditors of the company, and are repaid out of the remaining assets only after secured debt holders are repaid, but before equity holders. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-16 16:41 MicroStrategy Is Dependent On Refinancing Capacity, Not Bitcoin Price MSTR won't have to sell Bitcoin if BTC price goes down, they'll have to sell Bitcoin if they're unable to acquire funding along the maturity of their debt wall. MicroStrategy is essentially a leveraged trade on Bitcoin, based on the following cycle: 1️⃣ Acquire funding via debt or equity 2️⃣ Buy Bitcoin 3️⃣ Repeat This cycle works for as long as MSTR is able to obtain funding. Once funding becomes unavailable (i.e. market isn't willing to lend at favorable interest rates), funding must come from asset liquidation (i.e. the sale of Bitcoin). The availability of funding is mostly dependent on Bitcoin's price. As long as Bitcoin price and trend is favorable around the dates when the debt wall matures - MSTR should be able to continue their leveraged trade. MSTR share price vs Bitcoin NAV is also important. If MSTR trades a premium over Bitcoin's NAV it allows Microstrategy to short their own equity and long Bitcoin. However, an unfavorable Bitcoin price action environment (e.g. during a bear market) that coincides with debt repayment obligations may trigger the unwinding of this leveraged position, forcing MSTR to sell Bitcoin, thus putting further downwards price pressure on Bitcoin, which lowers Microstrategy's equity even more, which makes lender even less likely to lend. The end result is an even more degraded funding capacity, which at the limit leads to bankruptcy. Debt starts maturing from 2028 (≈$1B), but the most significant portion of ≈70%/$5.8B matures in 2029-2030. This is where the price of Bitcoin is of great importance for Microstrategy's solvency. So don't expect Microstrategy to have pressure to sell significant amounts of Bitcoin before at least 2027, even if the Bitcoin price stays low. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-15 17:12 Just wait until Bitcoin hype accounts find out that Czechia has not adapted the Euro, so it's not a part of the Eurozone. Thus, the Czech National Bank (CNB) is a part of European System of Central Banks (ESCB), but not a full Eurosystem central bank, so it's not represented in and not bound by the ECB Governing Council's monetary policy decisions. No Eurozone National Central Bank (NCB) is holding Bitcoin in their reserves, and ECB's current policy rejects the idea of BTC as a reserve asset. Watch what they do, not what Bitcoin hype media says. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-14 23:08 In my post ranking gold as a percentage of central bank balance sheet size I wrote renminbi/yen, when I meant renminbi/yuan Yen is, of course, the Japanese, not PRC's local currency. I will correct this under threads & thoughts on my website, but it will remain with this typo on X (you can't update the post after 1 hour) ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-14 19:14 Russia will buy Silver as a strategic reserve until 2027 I'm not speculating on anything, this comes directly from the Russian legislation, namely the Federal Law № 419-ФЗ (in Russian/cyrilic: Федеральный закон от 30 ноября 2024 г. № 419-ФЗ) whose budget tables for 2025–2027 allocate ≈51.5 billion rubles (≈$640M) per year as budget for the "acquisition of state reserves of precious metals and precious stones". Silver falls explicitly under the definition of "precious metals". More specifically, under Russian framework law № 41-ФЗ the term "precious metals" ("драгоценные металлы") is explicitly defined as gold, silver, platinum and the metals of the platinum group. In addition to the above, in the official explanatory note (пояснительная записка) to the draft of Federal Law № 419-ФЗ the Russian Ministry of Finance explicitly states that the plan is to acquire refined gold, refined silver, refined platinum and refined palladium for strategic goals. More specifically, the aim is to increase the share of "highly liquid valuables" in the State Fund of Precious Metals and Precious Stones of the Russian Federation (Госфонд России). ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-14 16:00 You can read the article here: https://illya.sh/threads/how-does-the-federal-reserve-set-interest-rates 📖 Quoting from 2025-11-13 22:12: ┌─ In July I wrote a primer on the mechanics by which the Fed steers the prevailing interest rates in the economy. │ │ It covers the ON RRP, IORB, Discount Rate and SRF channels, explaining how together they set a corridor with upper and lower limits for the effective rate. │ │ Prior to today the article reading experience was subpar, due to the amount of supporting images - the thread is composed of several shorter posts, and each one came with an image. │ │ I've made it a lot more readable by removing most of the images └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-14 14:03 This is how The Soviet Union kickstarted Eurodollar markets in the 1950's Eurodollars are USD deposits held at banks outside the U.S. Originally, they were held mostly in European jurisdictions, thus the "Euro" in the name. URSS needed U.S. dollars for international trade, but they didn't trust keeping balances directly in New York, as they feared that U.S. would freeze or seize those deposits. So URSS placed their USD deposits in European banks, often via Soviet-linked banks. Those European banks then re-deposited or lent out those dollars to other banks and institutions. I've written extensively how the policies of the current U.S. administration are a negative for the USD. Asian countries have been progressively moving away from USD, and this is a sign from Europe in that direction (but don't expect heavy de-dollarization in the near future). Overall, I view this as a net positive for the sovereignty of EU/Europe as a whole. A more developed financial system infrastructure is crucial for attracting the use of Euro, which is already the 2nd most used currency in the world. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-13 23:09 As I've written earlier today, Silver will encounter corrections These are all buying opportunities - as is the whole price range within current larger pullback. The price bottoms I written about remain unchanged. The uptrend will resume The same is true for gold 📖 Quoting from 2025-11-13 11:48: ┌─ My prediction on Silver's bottom was correct: ≈$43-45 ✅ │ │ The uptrend goes on. The price will encounter more corrections along the way, but the bottoms I described previously remain valid. │ │ Like for gold, I would re-analyze critically all sources that were claiming that the bullrun for silver is over. └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-13 22:12 In July I wrote a primer on the mechanics by which the Fed steers the prevailing interest rates in the economy. It covers the ON RRP, IORB, Discount Rate and SRF channels, explaining how together they set a corridor with upper and lower limits for the effective rate. Prior to today the article reading experience was subpar, due to the amount of supporting images - the thread is composed of several shorter posts, and each one came with an image. I've made it a lot more readable by removing most of the images ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-13 11:48 My prediction on Silver's bottom was correct: ≈$43-45 ✅ The uptrend goes on. The price will encounter more corrections along the way, but the bottoms I described previously remain valid. Like for gold, I would re-analyze critically all sources that were claiming that the bullrun for silver is over. 📖 Quoting from 2025-10-21 21:20: ┌─ silver could pullback to ≈$40 before continuing its uptrend │ │ this represents a ≈27% correction from the top │ │ this is the lowest possible bottom for this move - it probably won't go this low. if it does, the move will happen fast, so have your buy limit orders ready. next week is FOMC interest rate decision. the Fed will cut the rates by another 25bps, and other things equal - it's positive price pressure for silver │ │ if the price breaks below $47, it will likely fall closer to $45. expect a stronger support in the $43-45 area │ │ overall, any prices in the vicinity of September 15th 2025 prices is a GREAT buying opportunity │ │ * keep in mind the total 75 bps interest rate cut by the Fed this year is already in progress of being priced in - the market doesn't wait for the official announcement. this is one of the reasons why you had so much upside price volatility in the last month └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-12 16:47 My prediction on gold's bottom was correct: ≈$3900 ✅ You can direct anyone who is saying that gold and silver have topped to my posts. If you think that gold and silver have topped - I'm really curious to hear your thesis. I've laid mine out extensively in prior writings. 📖 Quoting from 2025-10-24 15:14: ┌─ GOLD: look for rejection at ≈$4155 │ │ if gold's price get rejected at that price level again - you'll likely see the fall to ≈$3900 target I described in my previous post │ │ it's a good idea to have the limit buy orders ready 😄 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-10 16:26 Gold as a percentage of balance sheet size in Central Banks (ranked): 🇯🇵 Japan (MoF + BoJ): ≈2.4% 🇨🇳 China (PBoC): ≈4.5% 🇺🇸 U.S. (Fed gold certificates): ≈15.9% 🇪🇺 European Union (ECB + Eurosystem): ≈19.4% 🇷🇺 Russia (BoR): ≈36.1% All of the above will expand their balance sheets, but it's mostly China & Russia actively buying more gold. Conclusions you can take from here: ➖ China's gold holdings are relatively small when compared to their Central Bank's balance sheet size, and given their efforts to promote renminbi as the invoice currency worldwide, you can expect PBoC to continue their gold purchases for the medium-long term. The gold share must at least double to come close to the current reserve currency - the U.S. dollar. All reserve currencies started on a gold and/or silver standard - and the pressure towards this direction won't be different for renminbi/yuan. When the USD became the world reserve currency with the Bretton-Woods agreement - gold certificates accounted for ≈40% of the Fed's balance sheet. ➖ Russia has built up a massive balance sheet capacity for the future. Once the international trade markets with Russia re-open, there will be a plenty of reserves to back-up a massive wave of Ruble credit. Expect Russian capital markets to rally then. ➖ European Union has a healthy relative position. Given that the Euro is currently the closest alternative to the U.S. Dollar - it's a good idea to both, expand gold reserves and promote capital markets. The latter is an explicit goal via the Capital Markets Union (CMU). Given that EU will further expand the balance sheet, it's necessary to increase the gold reserves - repricing won't be enough. Gold will make Euro more attractive, and with it the FX holdings of Euro by sovereigns. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-06 15:07 Bitcoin is not just for speculative gambling Nation state-linked companies are already settling their transactions in Bitcoin. Sure, they're using Bitcoin only as an intermediary, not as the end settlement unit of account, but this takes Bitcoin's utility far beyond gambling. Just because Bitcoin isn't replacing gold as money, doesn't mean that it's a failure. Just because Bitcoin bitcoin collapsed below 100K, doesn't mean it won't come back higher (liquidity cycles suggest it will). Extremes are better for engagement, but reality is very inclusive. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-05 21:25 My article on how all reserve currencies started on a gold and/or silver standard: https://illya.sh/threads/all-reserve-currencies-achieved-reserve-status-under-gold-or 📖 Quoting from 2025-11-05 21:14: ┌─ My article on Gold vs Bitcoin, and how Bitcoin needs Gold, but Gold doesn't need Bitcoin: https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-needs-gold-gold-doesnt-need-bitcoin.html └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-05 21:14 My article on Gold vs Bitcoin, and how Bitcoin needs Gold, but Gold doesn't need Bitcoin: https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-needs-gold-gold-doesnt-need-bitcoin.html 📖 Quoting from 2025-11-02 14:59: ┌─ Gold is within the fabric of money, not just Central Banks │ │ A lot of posts on X frame Central Banks as malevolent institutions, and by some form of conspiracy they hold gold in their reserve accounts. And apparently not holding gold is a step towards monetary freedom - even more if you forego an atomic element (Au) for a cryptographic computer algorithm (Bitcoin). │ │ A more productive approach is asking why do Central Banks chose gold over all other commodities and assets. Every single world reserve currency, without exception, started on a gold and/or silver standard. Gold has been used as money for over 5000 years. │ │ I've written several articles on what makes gold so special and how Bitcoin is not a replacement for gold. I'll leave them linked below └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-05 20:10 European Investment Funds Explained: UCITS, AIFs, AIFMD and the ELTIF Regime As I’ve previously written, I am working on a framework for tokenizing European Long Term Investment Fund operation (ELTIF 2.0) on a public, smart-contract enabled blockchain like Ethereum. You can read more about it here: https://illya.sh/threads/tokenizing-european-long-term-investment-funds-eltif-2-0-on This is financial markets legislation heavy topic, and it involves several regulations and directives, each one meticulously outlining rules and exceptions which together form a framework for operating various investment funds in the European Union. I come across many negative commentaries regarding EU regulations in general, but not so many explaining those regulations. In general, there is not much information covering this topic on the internet, and if you ask ChatGPT to explain it - it will likely take you several iterations and back-and-forth to understand it. Since this falls under my current area of work - I thought that it would be useful to share the knowledge, and provide a clear and concise starting point for anyone looking into investment funds legislation and practical application in the European Union. So first of all let’s start with the definition of a “fund”. EU law doesn’t have a unanimous definition for what constitutes a fund. Instead, it defines rules for two collective investment schemes: 1️⃣ Undertakings for Collective Investment In Transferable Securities (UCITS) defined in Directive 2009/65/EC 2️⃣ Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs) defined in AIFMD Directive 2011/61/EU UCITS is defined as an undertaking whose sole purpose is collective investment in transferable securities and other liquid financial assets, with the holders of UCITS units/shares being able to redeem/repurchase them on demand out of UCITS’s assets/holdings. The strict list of eligible assets is defined in Article 50 of Directive 2009/65/EC and it includes: 1️⃣ Transferable securities, which are securities that are negotiable/tradable on capital markets, such as shares/equities and bonds. 2️⃣ Money market instruments 3️⃣ Deposits with credit institutions 4️⃣ Certain financial derivatives As per Article 5, a UCITS must be managed by “management company”, which is defined as a company whose regular business is to manage UCITS (Article 2(1)(b)), or set up as a self-managed investment company under Articles 29-31. As per Article 6(1) this management company must be authorized. Before a UCITS is authorized its’s management company must be authorized. Alternative Investment Fund (AIF) is defined in Directive on Alternative Investment Fund Managers (AIFMD) to encompass all undertakings that raise capital from investors, invest according to a clearly defined investment policy for the benefit of the investors, and do not require UCITS authorization. In this sense, AIF is a functional classification, and it explicitly captures other collective investments that do not fall under the UCITS definition, as per Directive 2009/65/EC. As a general rule, anything that’s a collective investment undertaking, but not a UCITS is an AIF. That definition comes directly from AIFMD Article 4. An AIF must always be managed by an Alternative Investment Fund Manager (AIFM). Under Article 4(1)(b) of AIFMD, an AIFM is defined as “legal persons whose regular business is managing one or more AIFs”. Article 5 from AIFMD further reinforces this idea by requiring every AIF to have a single AIFM legally responsible for its compliance. This management entity can either be external (external AIFM) or the AIF may be managed internally with the AIF itself obtaining AIFM authorization. Article 6(1) mandates that no entity may manage an AIF, unless they are authorized as an AIFM (i.e. the managing entity must be authorized). The AIFM in an AIF is equivalent to the “management company” in UCITS. European Long Term Investment Fund (ELTIF), defined in Regulation (EU) 2015/760, and later amended by Regulation (EU) 2023/606 , is a type of Alternative Investment Fund (AIF). All ELTIF are AIF, but in order for an AIF to be ELTIF, it must meet the requirements outlined in the regulation and is subject for authorization. As such, under the EU law, ELTIF is not a distinct class of funds/collective investment schemes, but rather a legal label that an AIF can apply for. Since an ELTIF is an AIF, it is also managed by an AIFM. So what distinguishes an ELTIF from a “regular” AIF? In short, it’s the type of assets that the collective investment undertaking holds. Among others, an ELTIF must invest ≥55% of its capital into eligible assets, which include real assets (e.g. real estate) and STS securitizations. Moreover, an ELTIF cannot invest into commodities, the use of financial derivatives is only allowed for hedging and there are limits on borrowing/leverage. So why would one bother with the ELTIF label? Well, having the ELTIF label means your collective investment undertaking product is available to retail (i.e. to non-professional investors) EU-wide. An ELTIF allows you to offer illiquid investments to retail in the whole European Union In conclusion - EU law defines a fund as a collective investment undertaking, and it can be of two types: UCITS or AIF. An ELTIF is a type of AIF, which comes with retail EU passport benefits. This article doesn’t aim to be exhaustive, but rather to be used as the basis for forming a mental model on the legal structure of funds in the European Union, and how the ELTIF fits into the framework. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-04 21:35 more mobile phones can also be produced - that doesn't mean that price of existing phones will go down building new houses does not reduce the demand for highly desired areas - physical space is limited moreover, those new houses will be built with the same credit/funding that will further drive real estate prices up. there is a reason banks eagerly finance at least 75% of the property value ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-04 20:07 Illya's Threads and Thoughts Now Uses Slugs In URLs I've extended my static site with short (thoughts) and longer-form (threads) posts to have their URLs structured in the form of a slug. Before, each individual thought’s and thread's HTML page name (and by extension, its URL) was based on the timestamp of the post. Now, it’s based on the first line of the post. So now the URLs are nicer looking, more human readable, and much more SEO and LLM friendly. For example https://illya.sh/threads/@1761122490-0 becomes https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-needs-gold-gold-doesnt-need-bitcoin You will notice that the former URL still functions via a redirect to the new slug-based URL. This is because there were already thousands of pages indexed in search engines, and a smaller amount of third-party links (mostly other platforms, comments, direct shares and intra-links). This was on the future TODO list since pretty much the start of the project, but it was purposefully delayed until the amount of content justified it. Also ChatGPT kept bugging me to update to slugs for a better SEO From an architectural perspective everything is still fully static, automated and straightforward: ➖ The slug is constructed by getting the first line of the post, sanitizing it and adding dashes. It can have up to 60 characters in length ➖ The redirects are static. There is a Python list with hardcoded IDs for all previously generated threads and thoughts ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-03 20:30 Coffee outperformed Gold in the last 5 years Would it be sound to conclude that coffee beans are better money and investment than gold, and that Central Banks should hold coffee & its derivatives in reserve assets? Bitcoin has less than 20 years of price action, and it started trading at a negligent price. Gold has been money for over 5000 years and its earliest recorded price per ounce is of ≈100 days of labor A better question is whether Bitcoin will continue to consistently outperform gold over the next 20 years. *Consistency* is key - it must be at least a store of value, including shorter-term. If you get caught in the typical >50% price drops - you may pay a high opportunity cost. It's not just whether Bitcoin will increase more in price than gold in the next 20 years, but also how severe and long-lasting Bitcoin's corrections are. Imagine you buy Bitcoin today and it goes into a bear market with a significant value loss in the next 4 years. In those 4 years - many investment opportunities may arise, such as in real estate, equities, commodities or bonds. If your capital is locked in Bitcoin throughout that period - that's an opportunity cost. Gold doesn't come with those shortcomings. There is a reason why all world reserve currencies started on a gold and/or silver standards. There is no free lunch in the markets. Higher return is almost unanimously correlated with higher risk. Quantitatively Bitcoin is high risk- it's not a matter of opinion. This doesn't mean that Bitcoin is a bad idea, but it also doesn't mean that Bitcoin is a better idea than gold. It does, however mean, that Bitcoin isn't a replacement for gold. And now you understand what makes gold so special. You don't have to believe me - believe centuries of price action and human history. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-02 21:03 Anyone can buy 1 JPEG, but not everyone 2 JPEGs for 8 billion people (there are 2 fungible copies) Everyone on earth is in this race to accumulate JPEGs, but 99% haven't realized it yet ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-02 19:31 A U.S. dollar note doesn't care who you are or where you're from - the laws of physics are fair for everyone Neither does gold, nor a coffee bean or a rock. In fact, this is true for most inanimate objects. There is nothing special about that property. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-02 19:07 More Bitcoin has been seized than Gold If you think that Bitcoin is harder to seize than gold, you are probably wrong. At least according to the data. In the history of Bitcoin's existence, much much more Bitcoin has been seized than Gold. You don't need to compromise cryptographic primitives to seize Bitcoin. Apparently this isn't a very well known fact in the Bitcoin Maxi world 😄 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-02 14:59 Gold is within the fabric of money, not just Central Banks A lot of posts on X frame Central Banks as malevolent institutions, and by some form of conspiracy they hold gold in their reserve accounts. And apparently not holding gold is a step towards monetary freedom - even more if you forego an atomic element (Au) for a cryptographic computer algorithm (Bitcoin). A more productive approach is asking why do Central Banks chose gold over all other commodities and assets. Every single world reserve currency, without exception, started on a gold and/or silver standard. Gold has been used as money for over 5000 years. I've written several articles on what makes gold so special and how Bitcoin is not a replacement for gold. I'll leave them linked below ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-01 15:24 Multiple governments have seized Bitcoin In fact, more Bitcoin has been seized than gold in the U.S. It's really not hard to google this, but here are some examples: - Silk Road takedown (2013–2015) - ≈175K BTC - "Individual X" Silk Road stash (2020) - ≈75K BTC - Bitfinex-hack recovery (2022) - >94K BTC - Movie2K piracy case - ≈50K BTC - Finland Customs seizures - ≈2K BTC - Netherlands money-laundering case - ≈2.5K BTC - China PlusToken crackdown ≈200K BTC Regarding gold - yes, it was seized in the past in the US, but it was at a much smaller scale than you imagine. The publicly documented, conservative floor for government-seized BTC is ≈700K BTC (≈$77B today), which is already above the $58–110B value range for U.S. public gold coin surrendered in 1933–34. If your argument is that Bitcoin is better than gold, because it's more private/seizure resistant - you are wrong. If you think that by holding Bitcoin you're immune to U.S. government policies you're also wrong, as more than 90% of all Bitcoin buying volume comes from USD or USD derivatives (including stablecoins). ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-11-01 12:13 Why would a Central Bank hold Bitcoin in reserves? 1. Even assuming that Bitcoin is an inflation hedge - it still doesn't mean that Central Banks should hold it. What would be the purpose of that? Central Banks are not commercial institutions - they hold assets for very specific reasons (e.g. FX rate stabilization). 2. You may have misunderstood me. I said that Bitcoin isn't money - but that by itself doesn't mean that Central Banks shouldn't hold it. FIAT currencies aren't money either. Neither are government bonds. BUT - those bonds or currencies generally don't crash >50% on cycle tops. So it's the fact that it's not money, combined with the other points I mentioned here and in the article that i linked 3. Kaspa isn't money. It certainly hasn't been long enough to be classified as money, nor it has enough intrinsic value. It carries the same set of technology risks as other cryptocurrencies- and even without looking at the chart - I can tell you that it's correlated to the rest of the crypto market. I am a big fan of crypto, but we need to keep it real 😄 Thousands of accounts on X with large following shill Bitcoin/Crypto non-stop, with little reasoning behind it. They either do it for pay, engagement or a mix of both. You don't have to look far - usually just search for "gold" on their profile and you'll find something like this (see screenshot). If you want to understand how Bitcoin is not gold, it will never be gold, and it will never replace gold - read this article: https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-needs-gold-gold-doesnt-need-bitcoin.html ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-30 21:42 Is the rotation from Gold to Bitcoin in the room with us? 😉 Over the past 2 weeks hundreds of X accounts with large following have been posting about an imminent rotation from gold to Bitcoin, once gold reaches a correction level. Their main argument seemed to be based on Bitcoin's historic price correlation - essentially "here are some select occurrences from the past where this happened, so it will happen now". Many of them went as far as claiming that gold has topped in this cycle (it hasn't). Local top for gold was reached, but rotation didn't happen. As I've been alluding to over this same timeframe - the reality in financial market is seldom this simplistic. In general, you should be very wary of market thesis that are too abstract, or fail to consider the macro picture. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-30 11:30 Tokenizing European Long-Term Investment Funds (ELTIF 2.0) on a Public Blockchain Currently I'm working on a practical framework for tokenizing European Long Term Investment Fund (ELTIF) instruments on a smart contract-enabled public blockchain like Ethereum. While there have been some ELTIF tokenization initiatives by some funds in the EU - they all used non-public (e.g. in-house) distributed ledger technology (DLT) solutions, with scarce public information on the implementation details. The idea of fully on-chain ELTIF is attractive for several reasons: ➖ It taps into trillions of USD of readily available on-chain liquidity ➖ It reduces processing, compliance, distribution and infrastructure costs ➖It's fully compliant with the existing EU legislation In terms of DeFi, bridging the real world financial system on-chain enables investment vehicles, which are fully compliant with the legal systems in the EU, and by extension most jurisdictions. This increases the value of the whole DeFi ecosystem, by making it more attractive for institutional and retail investment. To date, there isn't a clear and practical framework for operating an ELTIF fund on a public, permissionless DLT. Such a framework must encapsulate not only the legal aspects (those already exist - the relevant regulations themselves!), but also the technical details of operating the ELTIF fund via smart contracts, while remaining fully compliant with the EU legislation. This is the gap that I’m aiming to address. I’ll be focusing on real-estate based ELTIFs - where the fund pools money from investors, invests it into real estate and collects yield from rents and appreciation, as it goes inline with my current area of work. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-29 19:21 So the Fed will fully resume Treasury purchasing, as a part of their balance sheet expansion starting December 1st 2025 Not only all maturing Treasuries will be rolled over at auctions, but also all Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) principal will be reinvested into Treasury bills (<1 year duration) This will lower the duration of the assets on the Fed's balance sheet and contribute to debt monetization But that's not a surprise. 3 months ago I explained why interest rate cuts and the end of QT/start of QE is imminent ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-29 17:53 How exactly does Bitcoin break U.S. dollar control, when >90% of Bitcoin's buying volume is USD-derived (including stablecoins)? ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-26 11:34 IMPORTANT message from finance cat: "I hope you bought gold, silver and their miners. - October 2025" ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-25 07:54 All reserve currencies achieved reserve status under gold or silver standards And some still think that Bitcoin will be the next reserve currency. Judging by the actions of the sovereigns positioning their local monetary units for reserve currency position that is highly unlikely 😁 More specifically, China & BRICS are heavily buying gold, and they have openly discussed partly gold-backed currencies several times. In the EU, the ECB is very clear on their stance against adding Bitcoin to their reserves. Bitcoin doesn't exhibit the characteristics necessary for a reserve currency. If you believe that it does, then you need to start by explaining how it would integrate into the current financial system. Do not forget to consider Central Banks, wholesale debt markets and refinancing cycles. A potential role that Bitcoin may take is as collateral, for example in money markets. The problem is, that you will be inadvertently running into very large haircuts and low LTVs. So unless Bitcoin concisely keeps yielding higher highs, you'd be better off by using higher-quality collateral, such as government bonds or even equities. Another point comes down to risk. The more Bitcoin is used the more risky it becomes. Sure, you can say that the network also growth with usage, but in case Central Banks start holding Bitcoin - it becomes a geopolitical liability. It will become a matter of time before disruptive attack and compromise of private keys. Also, >90% of the buy volume of Bitcoin is in USD or its derivatives, such as USD-pegged stablecoins. So it's USD that's mostly invested there, not euros, renminbi or others. This makes Bitcoin extremely exposed to USD currency risk. Gold and silver have a much more modest exposure to the risks above. You don’t have to believe me - just look at the history. Since 500 BCE it's mostly been gold and/or silver - and Bitcoin doesn't change that. Accounts on X that relentlessly promote the idea of Bitcoin being money, and better money than gold fail to address these points. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-24 22:47 a kind reminder that higher oil prices benefit Russia and Ruble U.S. puts sanctions on Russia --> Oil price increases --> Ruble price increases This is driven by how Russia's National Wealth Fund (NWF) operates, plus the fact that both NWF and Russia's Central Bank have almost no exposure to USD 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-29 21:34: ┌─ 🇷🇺 oil up is GOOD news for Russia & Ruble │ │ every surplus above $60/barrel of Urals oil increases FX reserves in NWF (Yuan or gold) - an interplay between MoF and CBR │ │ exporters pay taxes in Ruble - so higher buying pressure │ │ mark my words: │ 👉 you'll see USD/RUB exchange rate fall └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-24 15:14 GOLD: look for rejection at ≈$4155 if gold's price get rejected at that price level again - you'll likely see the fall to ≈$3900 target I described in my previous post it's a good idea to have the limit buy orders ready 😄 📖 Quoting from 2025-10-24 08:04: ┌─ gold's lowest possible bottom for current correction is ≈$3900 (area) │ │ the uptrend will resume soon. given the FOMC meeting next week - if that bottom arrives it should be very soon - within the next week │ │ * this is trend analysis done in 5 mins, but likely a correct one 😄 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-24 08:04 gold's lowest possible bottom for current correction is ≈$3900 (area) the uptrend will resume soon. given the FOMC meeting next week - if that bottom arrives it should be very soon - within the next week * this is trend analysis done in 5 mins, but likely a correct one 😄 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-23 13:14 gold is up 20,000% since 1832 and for most of its history its price has been fixed by the government ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-23 13:05 You can email JPEG You can teleport JPEG You can divide JPEG into a billion pieces and send them across the world at 2:22 AM JPEG invented civilization 2.0 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-23 10:59 and gold is up over 50% since January 20th 😄 silver is up over 60% 2025 is a fun year! ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-23 10:14 if you think they crypto will replace banks, you don't understand what banks are and how they work banks are credit institutions. it doesn't matter if they process transactions in COBOL, Bitcoin or Solidity DLTs can and will save on costs, but that will also open opportunities for banks to expand further it's not about the underlying technology - the credit can be issued on-chain via tokens, but there will still be heavy regulations and authorization requirements DLTs/blockchains won't magically replace banks ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-22 20:59 but Bitcoin is also taxed and surveilled - the ledger is public and attributable 😄 most of Bitcoin's trading volume is in central-bank issued currencies. actually, it's mostly the USD - so Bitcoin is highly susceptible to U.S. currency risk so yes, bitcoin is risky. that's the premise of no free lunch in financial markets 😄 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-22 14:24 if AI will want something it would be gold, not Bitcoin AI can create another Bitcoin protocol and program the node logic, but AI won't be able to create gold AI will also need to gold for the signal connectors in the electronics that the AI runs on It's chemistry/physics vs computer code. You can write new code, but you can't create new Au (without it being very, very expensive) ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-22 11:29 no, the U.S. will not pay off its debt with tariffs i think this is obvious for everyone now. if not - go read my past posts ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-22 11:24 it's over for gold i've already contacted central banks to dump it too it's not a store of value or safe haven anymore gold is only up 12% in the last month... clear bear market................. 😄 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-22 11:00 gold and silver miners gold and silver miners gold and silver miners gold and silver miners gold and silver miners gold and silver miners gold and silver miners don't forget to set your limit buy orders maximum bottom is around early September 2025 prices it's getting closer ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-22 09:41 Bitcoin needs gold. Gold doesn't need Bitcoin TL;DR: Bitcoin is a protocol that runs on computers. Computers rely heavily on electronics. Gold is widely used in electronics. Bitcoin depends on gold. Bitcoin quite literally runs on gold. ≈99% of physical machines hosting Bitcoin nodes contain at least trace amounts of gold. The same is true for the overall electric grid infrastructure that delivers electricity to Bitcoin nodes. While gold isn't strictly required for electronics, it's widely used to due to organic demand. Gold's ROI in signal connectors is very strong, because you need little gold to mitigate a large amount of failure risk. All of this is due to the unique chemical nature of gold, which alongside its scarcity is at the base of gold's intrinsic value. Gold is a chemical element in the periodic table - its atomic symbol is Au. Physical gold is essentially Au atoms connected to other Au atoms in a cubic pattern. This structure is very stable, and at the same time soft/malleable. Gold is used in electronics because it provides stable, low and predictable contact resistance and corrosion immunity at low currents/voltages, including under vibration. Electronics is of course just one of the use-cases of gold. Among others, it has been used as money for more than 5000 years. Even if Bitcoin does become money in the future, it won't be the only form of money (plus, you can always tokenize gold!). And especially not for the near long-term future. Digital currencies are at their infancy, and they almost always depend on stable electrical grid and network connection to function properly. This includes Bitcoin. Gold doesn't have this risk. It was used as money before electricity and networks existed, and it can continue to be used alongside them This is not to say that Bitcoin is a bad idea, but gold has a higher intrinsic value by definition ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-21 21:20 silver could pullback to ≈$40 before continuing its uptrend this represents a ≈27% correction from the top this is the lowest possible bottom for this move - it probably won't go this low. if it does, the move will happen fast, so have your buy limit orders ready. next week is FOMC interest rate decision. the Fed will cut the rates by another 25bps, and other things equal - it's positive price pressure for silver if the price breaks below $47, it will likely fall closer to $45. expect a stronger support in the $43-45 area overall, any prices in the vicinity of September 15th 2025 prices is a GREAT buying opportunity * keep in mind the total 75 bps interest rate cut by the Fed this year is already in progress of being priced in - the market doesn't wait for the official announcement. this is one of the reasons why you had so much upside price volatility in the last month 📖 Quoting from 2025-10-21 20:34: ┌─ 1 month ago I wrote that silver could extend its current move to ≈60% from the ≈$34.5 price level │ │ silver topped exactly there at ≈$54.5 │ │ now my next notes: │ │ treat the pullback and any price consolidation action as a buying opportunity │ │ during the next 6 months long positions entered in this area will be in profit. likely sooner, but 180 days provides a higher confidence timeline └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-21 20:34 1 month ago I wrote that silver could extend its current move to ≈60% from the ≈$34.5 price level silver topped exactly there at ≈$54.5 now my next notes: treat the pullback and any price consolidation action as a buying opportunity during the next 6 months long positions entered in this area will be in profit. likely sooner, but 180 days provides a higher confidence timeline 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-22 20:01: ┌─ silver's current move is already up >25%. it's better to have a pullback somewhere around the current level │ │ it can move up even further, extending the total move to ≈60%, but then you’ll get a larger and longer lasting pull back │ │ when silver moves in smaller increments, it has shorter-lasting consolidations/pullbacks. so this is what i mean by "better" └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-21 14:31 gold has formed a double top on the 4H chart 📈 that's why I wrote that buy orders below the current prices are a good idea i'd prioritize buying opportunities in silver + gold & silver miners on this pullback gold is also a great idea, but you'll get more volatility/relative upside in others 📖 Quoting from 2025-10-21 12:20: ┌─ the promised gold & silver sale is here │ │ if you didn't set your limit buy orders for silver, gold & miners - it's not too late yet │ │ currently in late-September price ranges for many. it's also a good idea to position some buy targets below the current price levels │ │ keep watching the gold price - it's the main driver for all │ │ FOMC meeting is next week └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-21 12:20 the promised gold & silver sale is here if you didn't set your limit buy orders for silver, gold & miners - it's not too late yet currently in late-September price ranges for many. it's also a good idea to position some buy targets below the current price levels keep watching the gold price - it's the main driver for all FOMC meeting is next week 📖 Quoting from 2025-10-20 01:44: ┌─ ⏰ don't forget to setup your buy limit orders for gold, silver and their miners └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-20 01:44 ⏰ don't forget to setup your buy limit orders for gold, silver and their miners 📖 Quoting from 2025-10-19 19:08: ┌─ hope you enjoyed Friday's gold, silver & miners sell-off │ │ now await for the markets to re-open │ │ it begins in a few hours 👀 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-20 00:54 yes, you always have access to the Bitcoin network until the electric grid is disrupted, a sufficiently strong solar storm occurs, a denial of service attack happens, ... i can continue the list ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-20 00:43 Bitcoin isn't private - at best it's anonymous and this is by design. it's just cryptography/math - not much to argue about but gold transactions aren't private either. most of the time they're not even anonymous. you must have some level of trust with the counterparty - either directly or via intermediary. a lot of the times this is required by law at retail level, there is much more privacy and anonymity with Bitcoin that with gold gold has clearly more intrinsic value than bitcoin, but bitcoin is one of the most significant advancements in money. although bitcoin isn't money 😄 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-19 23:52 it's not about lowering gold and nobody is panicking pro-crypto shill is about gold now because gold has has been the most notable asset post-interest rate cuts by the Fed not long ago it was about dumping ETH for BTC, and by default it's about inflation/currency debasement gold has been impressive. but this is very expected. during gold's last consolidation i've written extensively about how it's setting up very strong support and will make the uptrend continuation even more decisive. every dip was indeed a buying opportunity ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-19 23:16 looks like crypto twitter has not discovered Mendeleev's periodic table yet 😂 gold has existed for ≈13 billion years for at least 5,000 of those 13,000,000 years it has been money authenticity of gold bars can be tested easily. no need to make up problems that don't exist ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-19 19:08 hope you enjoyed Friday's gold, silver & miners sell-off now await for the markets to re-open it begins in a few hours 👀 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-19 14:12 my vibe meter on Bitcoin is off the charts 📈* the algorithm on X has been pushing a lot of pro-BTC content over the past month, and it's becoming more and more irrational: accounts with millions of followers recycling 2024 news about "new" gold reserves in China, false news about China legalizing Bitcoin and calls for gold going down to $2000 every pro-Bitcoin account seems to be calling a long-term gold top (LOL!) and heavy rotation into Bitcoin. actually a lot of BTC shill content is about BTC being better than gold - and the arguments for it aren't very sound. i've written several posts explaining this. BTC crowd seems very obsessed about gold - especially when it comes to showing how it's inferior to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not gold - and it will never be gold - they're very different assets. that doesn't mean that BTC ownership is a bad idea - but it's important important to approach it rationally a large part of this seems coordinated/paid campaigns. liquidity always needs an exit so Bitcoin should continue with some more downside in the near future * this sentiment is based on vibes, but it's backed by technicals & fundamentals at its base. you can find in-depth explanations in my past posts and threads ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-18 15:30 governments are already converting from physical currencies to digital currencies and it makes sense - it's cheaper, more traceable and more controllable. digital currencies are programmable - purely physical are not i wrote a thread about how virtually central banks are moving to digital currencies - via retail & wholesale CBDCs: https://illya.sh/threads/@1756336264-1.html ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-18 14:30 sell your gold and buy Bitcoin dealers/market makers need exit liquidity central banks need a lower purchase price you've been warned! 😄 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-18 13:28 BTC went from $0.004 to $110,000 USD in 16 years, but gold was never this cheap in over 5000 years Going back to the start of recorded price systems - gold's starting price per gram is ≈100 days of labor! This was in 2112 BCE, which was ≈4K years ago So using earliest records of starting price - 1g of gold would cost ≈25K$ is today's USD 🤯 NOTE: this is an imprecise estimation - but it's useful to bring the gold vs bitcoin price increase argument in perspective. During most of gold's USD history its price has been fixed by the government/law. Will Bitcoin be here in 5K years? No - not in its current form. Gold (Au) hasn't changed in 13 billion years Bitcoin promo accounts love to compare BTC to gold, and they frequently cite that BTC is up much more than gold over the last 16 years. The number is big - from its inception Bitcoin is up millionth of percent What the pro-crypto accounts fail to point out is that mathematically their conclusions are misleading. They almost always use USD as the base currency for comparison, but ignore the fact that gold was used as money several millennia before U.S. was even conceived. As such, such comparisons fail short They also seem to selectively omit the massive volatility - gold doesn't go down 80% every other day/cycle top The gold prices here I computed are estimates - don't take them as hard quantitive data. Read this in the context of comparing the price of gold and Bitcoin. If someone's argument is that Bitcoin is better than gold because it had a higher percentual return in 16 years - it likely lacks substance ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-18 11:28 1. Bitcoin is not money. Calling it money won't make it money 2. Digital currency designs existed before bitcoin - and double spending wasn't an unsolvable problem 3. Again, bitcoin is not money and all it takes is for your government to declare it illicit to censor it. Bitcoin is not private - you will be tracked if needed & in many ways it's much easier than with banks I'm a big fan of Bitcoin, DeFi & crypto in general, but that doesn't mean reality should be skewed Remember that lot of accounts posting non-stop pro-BTC/crypto content are paid for it - directly or indirectly. Another large portion of them are automated/bots. Keep it real 😎 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-17 22:22 now crypto twitter seems to think that gold & silver have topped 😂 i don't think CT understands what gold & silver are ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-17 22:09 deep work in loud, distracting places is a skill that you can learn and it's a very useful skill ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-12 17:15 FYI you can ask the bank to lend you ≈75%LTV of the future property before restoration works start so assuming you have a real estate project for restoration - the bank estimates the future value (after the immovable property is restored) and lends ≈75% of that expected future value. if you lease the property instead of buying - banks can generally finance 100% in restoration projects the bank may also agree for a lower installment payment schedule while the works are ongoing/the property business is being setup - e.g. for the first two years of the loan you're only paying interest installment portion without amortizing the outstanding principal amount otherwise you'll need another way to finance the restoration costs, and I doubt the contracting company will agree to only receive payment once your loan gets approved ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-10 02:15 no, permissioned assets running on blockchains are NOT sheep in wolves' clothing blockchains need to integrate with our existing legal systems - and the permissioned aspect is often required by law i'm currently looking into implementing a real estate European Long Term Investment Fund (ELTIF) on-chain with smart contracts the EU regulations governing such funds explicitly require a permissioned control. for example, an ELTIF must be managed by an Alternative Investment Fund Manager (AIFM), as per Directive 2011/61/EU (AIFMD). so there must always be an AIFM behind the token/smart contacts. it can't just be "ownerless" decentralized contracts. by design that someone also bears legal responsibility you're also legally not allowed to allow retail investments into the fund without KYC, which is also a permissioned component in order to be able to have the unit's funds tradable on-chain without qualifying as a trading venue under MiFID II (so you don't need additional licenses), you may want to use ELTIF RTS, which under certain conditions exempt your ELTIF smart contracts from being classified as a multilateral system. to qualify for this exception, the law requires the manager to operate windows, decide on execution prices, etc - i.e. the fund's units get traded in a permissioned manner these are just some of practical examples. as you see, there are many reasons for using a permissioned design in your blockchain assets permissionless is great, but practical value is more important. we need more solutions that work with the existing legal and financial system infrastructure ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-08 21:58 ≈less than 50% of total land is buildable this is if you want to be accurate for the near-long future don't expect massive building in mountains, glaciers and deserts 😄 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-08 21:18 neither supply nor demand are static if you renew a building in a high demand area you're removing an abandoned/old property from an area, which makes the area "nicer", thus it becomes more attractive = more demand you're also probably will be renting more than the area average (it's a new construction now) imagine doing this in an almost central part of a high demand city so renting a building can actually bring prices in the area up instead of down still - more building is better!! it does put downwards pressure on the real estate prices - but you're looking in the wrong place. you should be looking at credit instead. i wrote an article to get you started here: https://illya.sh/threads/@1757632740-1.html ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-08 16:31 people are calling Christine Lagarde ignorant on Bitcoin, but don't explain how how exactly are her statements on Bitcoin ignorant? it's not nice to insult someone, and it certainly doesn't explain how Bitcoin has the same amount and class of intrinsic value as gold - a commodity that has been money for over 5K years what is even the purpose of a central bank holding BTC in their balance sheet today? speculative investments are not a part of their mandates and moving in that direction would be contradictory to their legally established goals commercial banking is not the same as central banking ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-04 13:40 decentralized digital Euro will not work, because the ECB needs to have full control over it retail CBDCs are direct central bank liabilities on the balance sheet. so "neutral market infrastructure" would not work, because the ECB needs to have full control over it. you can also imagine how many regulations need to be accounted for by the implementation it most likely won't use a public blockchain for base implementation, and it's definitely not like stablecoins 😄 digital euro also needs to support offline payments, which isn't currently widely supported in DeFi. Zero Knowledge Proofs enable some potential solutions for this, but I don't believe that that's with what the ECB is going with now ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-03 19:58 we are approaching a local top for silver and gold according to my market vibe meter usually i'd write a longer post with an explanation & technicals, but today i'm writing of off vibes 😄 my twitter/x feed has been filled with so much euphoria regarding silver & gold that it starts to resemble those accounts which constantly promote Bitcoin you also have to contextualize how extended gold and silver's moves have been. the graph shows monthly candles this isn't a bearish post on gold though - still expecting $4000/oz in November 2025 😄 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-10-01 11:18 no, "The West" is not manipulating gold and silver prices silver and gold had retracements many times before, but I guess when it falls on Chinese holidays it becomes "western manipulation"? ≈32% of global gold demand in 2025 comes from China (estimate for jewelry + bar & coin). China is a major buyer of gold - so a lot of demand there a more reasonable explanation is a demand dip, due to the holiday in PRC. also the US government shutdown. although I agree the idea of a magic red button saying DUMP GOLD located somewhere in the west is more exciting 😄 it's also not clear what would be the purpose of manipulating the price of gold down, as that would be benefiting China - they can buy it cheaper! PBoC has been buying gold for years, and they will continue to do so. PBoC doesn't announce targets publicly - and they're flexible on their purchases, so again, lowering the gold price would likely allow them to buy it at a cheaper price ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-30 10:57 Bitcoin is not a good collateral for a loan, here's why: 1️⃣ You can only get ≈50% LVT credit 2️⃣ You pay higher interest than on mortgages/real estate-backed loans 3️⃣ You get liquidated from ≈80% LVT So if your strategy is to purchase assets and use them as collateral for loans, you may be better off with real estate: 1️⃣ You can get more than 75% LTV credit 2️⃣ You'll pay lower interest for a mortgage/real estate-collateralized loan than for a BTC collateralized loan 3️⃣ No liquidations when real estate is collateral. If property (collateral value) falls, you may be requested a cure, but forced sales must go though courts. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-30 10:23 and there you go 😄 once the short-term suport line was broken, silver's price fell down to another support 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-30 00:19: ┌─ silver's current short-term support line is in green │ │ it will be touched soon │ │ watch it closely! └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-30 00:19 silver's current short-term support line is in green it will be touched soon watch it closely! ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-29 15:32 the vast majority, if not all of tariffs set be the US will be removed in the next 4 years latest - by the next US administration. it will be an easy way to mitigate price inflation a bit, and mobilize the overall US economy tariffs are a net negative - i've said it from the very start. it's a lot more obvious now ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-29 15:13 ILLYA GERASYMCHUK: "There are 60M millionaires and only 281M kg of gold. Do the math" ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-29 09:54 the majority of real estate purchases in Portugal are done with credit. moreover, each property itself can be used as a collateral to get more credit - at least 75% of the property's value. so not only you can purchase the property, earn a yield via rents, but also get a credit/loan for 75% of value of the property in Portugal, ≈90% of all credit/loans against real estate, go into investing into more real estate. so each collateraized property, can contribute ≈2x of its value as buying pressure for the real estate market as a whole (1x when the property is first purchased, and 0.75x-1x when the property is used as collateral to get a loan against it) so effectively real estate itself is driving real estate prices up. banks happily finance real estate acquisitions, and lend against real estate collateral. then, most of that credit goes into purchasing more real estate, thus pushing the prices up so the main drivers behind increasing real estate prices in Portugal are: the real estate itself, i.e. the property itself funding rate/cost of credit (highly influenced by ECB policy rates) low relative transaction volume/market cap, making it easier to move the median the first two points are generally universal across the globe. i've previously written an article about what makes real estate such a special asset from the point of view of financing. you can read it here: https://illya.sh/threads/@1757632740-1.html the relatively low total transactional volume, which has increased almost x3 in the past decade - makes it "easier" for buying pressure to push the housing prices up of course, other factors contribute as well. Portugal is highly demanded area for cultural and geographical reasons - i.e. locals are welcoming and Portugal has a huge coastal area. there is also high inflation, regulatory challenges and supply chain limitations the bottom line is that real estate purchase and rent prices in Portugal will continue to increase over medium-long term 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-27 11:19: ┌─ portugal golden visa real estate investments are less than 3% of total housing transactions │ │ portuguese real estate market volume is ≈30B€/year, golden visa purchases accounted for ≈556M€/year │ │ 3% of total volume of the housing market is unlikely to be the primary driver of the national median prices increase │ │ so next time someone tells you that one of the main drivers behind increasing Portuguese real estate prices are golden visa investments - their argument is likely to lack substance └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-28 18:07 if you buy a car with Bitcoin, you're still subject to capital gains tax under the US law cryptocurrencies are property - so you're taxed on the USD value of the car at the time of purchase minus the cost of your original crypto purchase (so you're only taxed on the gain/profit) so if the processing fee of a payment with Ethereum is larger than it would be by selling Ethereum for USD first (e.g. transfer ETH to an exchange --> sell --> transfer to your bank account), then you end up paying more with Ethereum than you would with USD. it make sense, because you'd be removing an intermediary (i.e. you sell ETH for USD yourself) in either case, the seller receives USD for the car, not ETH or BTC. the intermediary most likely doesn't keep ETH/BTC on their balance sheet either, they just proxy your order to the market and charge a spread ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-28 17:43 central banks have rejected holding Bitcoin in their reserves including Fed, ECB, PBoC and many others what would even be the purpose of a central bank holding BTC on their balance sheet? so that they can stabilize the value of the currency against Bitcoin? what would be the practical benefit from it now? cross-border crypto trade in non-stablecoins is negligible. Bitcoin is extremely volatile, which would make central-bank issued currency more volatile - this goes exactly against the direct mandate of most central banks - price stability. a more volatile currency will also lead to a more volatile bond market, which will make government funding more volatile, and thus a high risk/uncertain economy and i'm not even going to touch on the security risks. okay, maybe briefly 😄: ➖ governments are one of the only entities that can realistically perform a successful 51% attack on Bitcoin. well, with central banks owning BTC will make such attacks much more attractive - including at the geopolitical level. the same goes for denial of service family of attacks ➖ what if the central bank's wallets get hacked/compromised? i'm not talking about quantum computers breaking RSA, but operational level mistake or compromise so for the next 10 years, I view central banks holding Bitcoin on their balance sheet as a negative sign for their currency. of course, the protocol and the bitcoin network will evolve/change over time, and with so may my stance i believe cryptocurrencies, and more specifically distributed layer technologies/blockchain architectures can bring immense value to our financial system as a whole, but that doesn't mean that we should have central banks speculating on that today. it makes much more sense to increase gold reserves instead ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-28 15:40 virtually every corporation that accepts Ethereum/Bitcoin for payments doesn't actually process the payment in crypto they immediately covert it to USD or another FIAT, and not actually hold the BTC, ETH, etc the convertion is generally done via an intermediary, so the company you're buying never even touch or care about the crypto asset. they want the same government-backed currencies that we use now the intermediary will also generally charge a fee, around ≈1% of the transaction value. so buying directly with crypto is likely to be more expensive than directly with FIAT. if you just sell the crypto for FIAT and pay directly in USD, EUR, etc it will likely be cheaper. so what's the point of paying more? don't be fooled by headlines or articles that suggest otherwise ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-27 11:19 portugal golden visa real estate investments are less than 3% of total housing transactions portuguese real estate market volume is ≈30B€/year, golden visa purchases accounted for ≈556M€/year 3% of total volume of the housing market is unlikely to be the primary driver of the national median prices increase so next time someone tells you that one of the main drivers behind increasing Portuguese real estate prices are golden visa investments - their argument is likely to lack substance ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-27 00:08 when mega caps like gold explode by ≈50% in a year and you don't think that that's a warning sign for US equities/risk asset - you probably should look back at history 😄 Bitcoin and Intel have do have one thing in common - direct monetary intervention from the US government ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-26 20:41 How Banks Create Money When Purchasing Assets I have previously written about the unique legal powers given to commercial banks and credit institutions in general, that allow them to create new currency, thus increasing its supply. For banks, this also extends to their open market operations, such as when they buy securities and other assets from the open market. If the bank’s counterparty happens to be a non-bank, or more generally an entity without an account at the central bank, then the bank will create new currency to pay for that transaction. I described this in my thread/article titled "when a bank buys an asset from a non-bank it creates broad money": https://illya.sh/threads/@1755863018-1.html I received a question about it via e-mail, so I’m writing a follow-up with clarifications. The flow that I was describing the thread linked above is what happens when a bank buys an asset from a non-bank. Let’s assume the bank ABC wants to buy an asset from you. Let’s forget about US government bonds for now, let’s say the bank wants to buy 100 shares of Tesla from you. The current market price for 1 Tesla share is ≈$450, so the ABC bank would pay you $45000 and you will give the bank the 100 shares. Let’s also assume you have an account in that bank (this is not mandatory!) Let’s say that right before the bank makes a purchase from you (a microsecond before that transaction/sale happens) there is a total of $1 million ($1000000) of US dollars in circulation. The moment right after the transaction is made, and the bank crediting your account with $45000, the total money in circulation would become $1 000 000 + $45000 = $1 045 000. The main point here is that those $45000 didn’t exist in circulation before. They were not taken from someone else’s account, nor from internal bank reserves. Those $45000 were created “out of thin air”, and that money was credited into your account. I say “credited” because it’s from the point of view of the bank - your deposit account at the bank is a liability to the bank - it sits on the liabilities side of the balance sheet - a credit increases liabilities. Now, I referred to “money in circulation”, but I actually meant Broad Money. There is another form of money - called Broad Money. There is a great paper from the Bank of England that describes them, alongside how commercial banks create money: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy.pdf . But in short, Broad Money is the money available for use by the larger economy (individuals, companies, etc), while Base Money is physical currency and currency held in reserve accounts at the central bank - the reserve accounts portion doesn’t touch the broader economy directly. If instead a bank ABC purchases an asset from another bank DEF - then the total money does not change. The bank ABC would just debit their reserve account at the central bank and credit the reserve account of the bank DEF. So money moves accounts, but total quantity does not change. In the same manner, when a commercial bank buys bonds directly from the government, there is no creation of “new money” - the money moves within the central bank’s reserve accounts. The general rule is: if the transacting entities have reserve accounts in the central bank the transaction is made within the central bank’s reserve accounts. Commercial banks, governments and sometimes select financial institutions (like in the US) have reserve accounts at the central bank, so transactions within them move Base Money The following article on how commercial banks work will be very helpful to understand how they operate and create money: https://illya.sh/threads/@1754426330-1 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-25 20:20 you can read the full article/thread explaining why September is generally a bad month for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies here: https://illya.sh/threads/@1755867104-1.html 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-25 20:12: ┌─ my article on repo rates and BTC price was referenced on bitcoin.com │ │ apparently it's been there for a month, but i only noticed now │ │ it's a short read - and explains the negative price pressure that quarter-ends, and especially September bring on the price of liquidity sensitive assets like Bitcoin │ │ it give you a concrete perspective on the current cryptocurrency price dump, even with decreasing funding rates └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-25 20:12 my article on repo rates and BTC price was referenced on bitcoin.com apparently it's been there for a month, but i only noticed now it's a short read - and explains the negative price pressure that quarter-ends, and especially September bring on the price of liquidity sensitive assets like Bitcoin it give you a concrete perspective on the current cryptocurrency price dump, even with decreasing funding rates ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-25 12:41 even if silver goes down to $30/oz it will still be in an uptrend 🤯 (weekly chart) ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-24 20:35 in a 6 months timeline, gold's current price dip is a buying opportunity ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-24 20:16 illya's threads & illya's thoughts are also on substack i don't actively use substack, but i also import my thoughts & threads RSS feeds there illya's threads on substack: https://illyathreads.substack.com/ illya's thoughts on substack: https://illyathoughts.substack.com/ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-24 20:09 previously, there was only a web version at https://illya.sh/threads/ now there is also RSS, just like for illya's thoughts 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-24 19:25: ┌─ added RSS feed to illya's threads/articles: https://illya.sh/threads/feed.xml │ │ so now you can subscribe my longer-form articles directly in your RSS reader └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-24 19:25 added RSS feed to illya's threads/articles: https://illya.sh/threads/feed.xml so now you can subscribe my longer-form articles directly in your RSS reader ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-24 14:46 (silver) a breakdown below the bottom orange line will likely push the price further down, at least to ≈$43.35 so now, watch the orange trend line/triangle 👀 1h candles 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-24 00:45: ┌─ silver's key short-term trend support is the green light from the chart │ │ we can only talk about potential pullbacks or consolidations once it's broken │ │ watch it closely 👀 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-24 12:44 silver and gold move differently, which why I generally refrain from referring to these commodities in conjunction, even though a lot of what I write about gold also applies to silver both, gold and silver are currently great investments, but they exhibit a different risk profile silver is a lot more volatile, meaning its moves are amplified in both directions if you’re planning to hold in the treasury/balance sheet it can play a big difference, as you’ll generally be less liquid with your silver holdings - in the sense that you may find it in a significant pullback from a previous high if you try to liquidate it ad-hoc, especially short-term ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-24 09:50 So the US government funds & contracts OpenAI, buys 10% of Intel, gets a stake in NVIDIA and places Oracle to oversee TikTok Then, these companies invest one into another That’s a bubble within a bubble 🤯 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-24 00:45 silver's key short-term trend support is the green light from the chart we can only talk about potential pullbacks or consolidations once it's broken watch it closely 👀 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-23 20:03 expect silver to correct down by ≈18% if the correction starts at the current level, that would bring the price down to ≈$36.22 but you may want to place orders above if you want to enter, somewhere from $37.5 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-23 09:36 gold moves up by ≈13% on breakouts, thus ≈$4000/oz gold in November 2025 this means that the current move would bring the gold price up to ≈$3978, which should happen at the start of November, around November 4th 2025 so far, gold has completed ≈6% of the current move - which means there's another ≈7% to move up from the current gold price of ≈$3715 this makes ≈$4000 the top of the next consolidation range. once that price is approached - expect a larger pullback, and potentially a longer consolidation phase, which could last ≈90 days. this means that after the top of the current move is hit (≈$4000) you may have to wait for another ≈3 months before a new all time high it's important to note that the top of the target range is close to $4000, so gold may not cross $4K before the aforementioned pullback. this means that it may take gold another 4 months before gold firmly sits over $4000/oz ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-22 20:01 silver's current move is already up >25%. it's better to have a pullback somewhere around the current level it can move up even further, extending the total move to ≈60%, but then you’ll get a larger and longer lasting pull back when silver moves in smaller increments, it has shorter-lasting consolidations/pullbacks. so this is what i mean by "better" ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-22 10:58 real estate/land has been used as a store of value for as long as we have written records - at least 5000 years 😄 even 5K years ago lad had been owned, taxed, transferred, leased and used as collateral physical space is limited and virtually everybody needs a house/shelter. this has been true for hundreds of thousands of years and it won't become a lie anytime soon so yes, real estate/land will continue to be used as a store of value ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-22 10:02 US government's intervention into the private sector like with NVIDIA and Intel is negative for US equities long-term it makes the stock market even more exposed to US government credit risk and the overall USD dominance short-term the price goes up, but so does the leverage ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-21 17:12 lower interest rates means less attractive repo and deposit rates, thus expect more capital movement into assets, as the yields on MMF/deposits become less attractive overall positive pressure on asset prices for the next 3 years - gold, silver and real estate (real estate is more region specific) are great assets to hold i'd be wary of US equities while it's not the top yet and they'll still move higher - you need to be on the lookout the cycle top, which will manifest in some form in the medium long-term in the next two years it's reasonable to expect a significant downturn in US equities, which may or may not be longer-lasting. it largely depends on the specific QE & other government policies taken to modulate liquidity and yields so if you're heavily exposed to US equities, it's a good idea to monitor it closely, as there's a risk of a significant downturn the biggest downside risk to US equities comes from FX, namely from the value and dominance of the US dollar: ➖ while a weaker USD is positive for cross-border USD credit/liquidity, it also makes imports more expensive for the US - and US is a net importer. increased import prices will put negative pressure on the whole economy, including publicly-traded companies ➖ less dominance/demand of USD will not only lead to less total USD abroad available to invest into the US equities, but also lead to the further development of non-USD financial markets because the capital that moves away from USD will need to get invested somewhere. China is the most obvious candidate to benefit from these developments, especially when it comes to equities and renminbi demand. i believe the EU is in a unique position to attract a lot of that USD-exiling demand, but that would require opening-up the markets and regulatory adaptations in that direction ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-20 18:00 $4000/oz gold by the end of 2025? yes, very much possible, but also beware of consolidation ranges which may extend for months the remaining ≈50bps of rate cuts this year are very much in the process of being priced-in moreover the USD isn't likely to strengthen significantly over the next 3 months and additional liquidity will be injected from US, China, EU, Japan & others all positive price pressure on gold the question isn't wether gold will hit $4000 (it will!), but wether it will reach that price in the next 3 months. it could also settle in a consolidation range with the top just below $4K remember that December is the tax year end pretty much worldwide, so balance sheets will be re-organized. US Treasury will also be running auctions on notes and bills every month until the end of 2025. and that collateral is needed by the wholesale debt markets/money market funds, so it will be bought up. these two could put downward pressure on the price of gold within the next 3 months within the next 8 months gold will almost certainly reach $4000. so if it doesn't happen by December 31st 2025, it will be soon after i'we written out my gold price thesis extensively in my previous posts, and closely followed the previous consolidation. you can read that to understand how to interpret data from price pressure, global liquidity and technical analysis standpoint i will eventually cover these points in more detail, so stay tuned to future posts ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-20 14:24 the market reacted exactly as I anticipated in a prior post a lower median in the FOMC dot plot indeed pushed asset prices up. and you had plenty of time after the Fed's dot plot was published to enter into that leg look at gold, silver and S&P500 😄 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-20 14:05: ┌─ September 2025 FOMC dot plot suggests lower rates than in June 2025 │ │ the new implied median for end of 2025 is ≈3.6%, which is lower than the ≈3.9% June figure │ │ this means you should expect the Fed to cut another 50 bps/0.5% in the next 3 months - likely in two 25bps iterations └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-20 14:05 September 2025 FOMC dot plot suggests lower rates than in June 2025 the new implied median for end of 2025 is ≈3.6%, which is lower than the ≈3.9% June figure this means you should expect the Fed to cut another 50 bps/0.5% in the next 3 months - likely in two 25bps iterations 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-17 09:10: ┌─ how will asset prices react to Fed's interest rate decision? │ │ if the FOMC members suggest rates lower than in the June 2025 - expect an upwards rally in assets │ │ if the FOMC members suggest higher or non-decreasing near future rates - expect a downward rally/profit taking in assets └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-19 22:36 but definitely expect volatility 😄 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-19 22:35: ┌─ while the mortgage will eventually bubble pop/de-leverage to a significantly lower level, it's unlikely to happen within the next year or two, as many seem to suggest │ │ as I've written here - there are still many tools that can push mortgage rates down shorter-term └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-19 22:35 while the mortgage will eventually bubble pop/de-leverage to a significantly lower level, it's unlikely to happen within the next year or two, as many seem to suggest as I've written here - there are still many tools that can push mortgage rates down shorter-term 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-19 22:31: ┌─ so as a takeaway: expect volatility within the mortgage rates in the US │ │ ➖ upwards pressure: financial downturns in other sectors, organic de-leveraging │ │ ➖ downwards pressure: QE, Fed facilities, government policies └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-19 22:31 so as a takeaway: expect volatility within the mortgage rates in the US ➖ upwards pressure: financial downturns in other sectors, organic de-leveraging ➖ downwards pressure: QE, Fed facilities, government policies 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-19 22:27: ┌─ the US mortgage bubble will likely pop alongside other bubbles, due to a high degree of interdependence and correlation within the financial sector │ │ the mortgage bubble can both, trigger and be triggered by burst of other bubbles │ │ so you'll see a cross-border systemic downturn └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-19 22:27 the US mortgage bubble will likely pop alongside other bubbles, due to a high degree of interdependence and correlation within the financial sector the mortgage bubble can both, trigger and be triggered by burst of other bubbles so you'll see a cross-border systemic downturn 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-19 22:18: ┌─ of course, that doesn't resolve the underlying supply/demand imbalance at the risk level implied by the leverage │ │ so the bubble is still there, and eventually it will eventually pop └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-19 22:18 of course, that doesn't resolve the underlying supply/demand imbalance at the risk level implied by the leverage so the bubble is still there, and eventually it will eventually pop 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-19 22:11: ┌─ the same is true for government policies or programs - those are also likely to push mortgage rates lower short-term │ │ at the very least, extended government guarantees synthetically reduce the risk - the US government is a more trusted backer than the issuer of the MBS └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-19 22:11 the same is true for government policies or programs - those are also likely to push mortgage rates lower short-term at the very least, extended government guarantees synthetically reduce the risk - the US government is a more trusted backer than the issuer of the MBS 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-19 22:08: ┌─ mortgage-rates targeted QE, such as the mass purchase of mortgage backed securities (MBS) by the Fed will drive the mortgage yields down short-term, but also further leverage that market sector in the process └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-19 22:08 mortgage-rates targeted QE, such as the mass purchase of mortgage backed securities (MBS) by the Fed will drive the mortgage yields down short-term, but also further leverage that market sector in the process 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-19 22:04: ┌─ so expect a 2008 QE-1 style balance sheet expansion by the Fed targeting mortgage securities via OMO │ │ there will also likely be additional government policies and programs, such as increasing the scope and volume of explicit government guarantees on mortgage securities └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-19 22:04 so expect a 2008 QE-1 style balance sheet expansion by the Fed targeting mortgage securities via OMO there will also likely be additional government policies and programs, such as increasing the scope and volume of explicit government guarantees on mortgage securities 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-19 21:56: ┌─ in the US, there's been a real estate bubble in the building since 1990's (pun intended). it was about to burst/de-leverage several times, but it was refueled via QE and government guarantees among others, thus delaying it └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-19 21:56 in the US, there's been a real estate bubble in the building since 1990's (pun intended). it was about to burst/de-leverage several times, but it was refueled via QE and government guarantees among others, thus delaying it 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-19 21:55: ┌─ in the longer-term mortgage rates in the US will likely increase, but not because of interest rate cuts └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-19 21:55 in the longer-term mortgage rates in the US will likely increase, but not because of interest rate cuts 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-19 20:50: ┌─ in fact, mortgage rates in the US have been on a downtrend for a while - way before the rate cut │ │ the markets have also gradually priced-in the September for a while, as you could observe in FedFunds futures │ │ current area is also a monthly support, upwards pressure is expected └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-19 20:50 in fact, mortgage rates in the US have been on a downtrend for a while - way before the rate cut the markets have also gradually priced-in the September for a while, as you could observe in FedFunds futures current area is also a monthly support, upwards pressure is expected 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-19 20:42: ┌─ reducing the cost of capital by 25bps wouldn't affect mortgage that much - as it doesn't eliminate the existing risk in the market (i.e. existing mortgages) │ │ to lower mortgage rates the Fed will likely do a mortgage-targeted QE, like with MBS in 2008 QE1 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-19 20:42 reducing the cost of capital by 25bps wouldn't affect mortgage that much - as it doesn't eliminate the existing risk in the market (i.e. existing mortgages) to lower mortgage rates the Fed will likely do a mortgage-targeted QE, like with MBS in 2008 QE1 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-18 20:03 ≈$39.6 is a great area to long silver during the pullback similar to gold, there is also a strong support below, which will further fuel buying pressure adapt the exact price to your ticker/derivative. chart below shows how to identify it (dashed line) ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-18 18:06 ≈$3515 is a great price area to long gold during the pullback you'll need to adjust the exact price to your ticker/derivative, but in the chart you can see how to find the relevant support (assuming your asset mirrors gold spot/futures) and remember the strong support below ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-17 20:13 that 1 hour candle on gold 😂😂 and a new all time high within all that move ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-17 19:07 and there you go - the Fed cut the rates by 25 bps 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-17 17:28: ┌─ there will NOT be a 50 bps rate cut │ │ there is nothing to predict or speculate: │ │ 1. open FedWatch │ 2. observe │ │ that's where institutions are hedging │ │ 30 day FedFunds futures implied target rate will NOT be wrong │ │ you'll see in a bit 😉 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-17 17:28 there will NOT be a 50 bps rate cut there is nothing to predict or speculate: 1. open FedWatch 2. observe that's where institutions are hedging 30 day FedFunds futures implied target rate will NOT be wrong you'll see in a bit 😉 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-17 13:51 what's up with the "urging" the Fed to cut by 50 bps today? the rate cut is known NOW - and it will be no more & no less than 25 bps/0.25%. there is absolutely nothing to speculate about here i assure you that your urges won't affect what the market already priced in 😄 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-17 12:12 these dynamics create an incentive for further upward price pressure: ➖ purchase prices raise due to low rates and ample financing ➖rent prices raise because purchase prices become too high 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-17 12:11: ┌─ i've previously written an article about what makes real estate so special in terms of funding/re-funding capacity │ │ banks finance ≈75% LTV on real estate purchases, and you can use existing properties as additional collateral │ │ 🧵read it here: https://illya.sh/threads/@1757632740-1.html └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-17 12:11 i've previously written an article about what makes real estate so special in terms of funding/re-funding capacity banks finance ≈75% LTV on real estate purchases, and you can use existing properties as additional collateral 🧵read it here: https://illya.sh/threads/@1757632740-1.html 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-17 12:10: ┌─ it's not just the Fed, the ECB is also lowering rates into higher inflation │ │ this puts upwards pressure on both, real estate purchase and rent prices │ │ so you can expect both - house prices and rents - to increase throughout the next 2 years └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-17 12:10 it's not just the Fed, the ECB is also lowering rates into higher inflation this puts upwards pressure on both, real estate purchase and rent prices so you can expect both - house prices and rents - to increase throughout the next 2 years ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-17 09:10 how will asset prices react to Fed's interest rate decision? if the FOMC members suggest rates lower than in the June 2025 - expect an upwards rally in assets if the FOMC members suggest higher or non-decreasing near future rates - expect a downward rally/profit taking in assets 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-17 09:00: ┌─ during the Sept 17th 2025 FOMC meeting, the Fed will publish a new dot plot with the suggested interest rates for 2025, 2026, 2027 and longer-term └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-17 09:00 during the Sept 17th 2025 FOMC meeting, the Fed will publish a new dot plot with the suggested interest rates for 2025, 2026, 2027 and longer-term 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-17 08:58: ┌─ so the most likely outcome is a 25bp/0.25% rate cut on September 17th 2025, and then at least one more cut in 2025 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-17 08:58 so the most likely outcome is a 25bp/0.25% rate cut on September 17th 2025, and then at least one more cut in 2025 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-17 08:58: ┌─ a cut larger than 25bp is highly unlikely, since the current CME's 30 Day Federal Funds Futures price strongly implies a 4.0%-4.25% target rate │ │ this is 25bp/0.25% below the current target rate of 4.25%-4.5% └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-17 08:58 a cut larger than 25bp is highly unlikely, since the current CME's 30 Day Federal Funds Futures price strongly implies a 4.0%-4.25% target rate this is 25bp/0.25% below the current target rate of 4.25%-4.5% 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-17 08:57: ┌─ based on the current Fed policy guidance available since June 2025, by the end of 2025 the Fed Funds rate should be ≈3.9% │ │ current one is 4.25%-4.50%, so we either get a larger than 25bp cut or several rate cuts this year └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-17 08:57 based on the current Fed policy guidance available since June 2025, by the end of 2025 the Fed Funds rate should be ≈3.9% current one is 4.25%-4.50%, so we either get a larger than 25bp cut or several rate cuts this year 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-17 08:57: ┌─ watch the Fed's projection dot plot, not the Fed Funds rate │ │ the 25bp/0.25% cut on September 17th 2025 will happen, and it's mostly priced in │ │ it's the future interest rate policy guidance that can amplify a market move either way └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-17 08:57 watch the Fed's projection dot plot, not the Fed Funds rate the 25bp/0.25% cut on September 17th 2025 will happen, and it's mostly priced in it's the future interest rate policy guidance that can amplify a market move either way ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-16 14:26 👋 hello, $3700 gold 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-08 14:54: ┌─ just as charted: with the yellow line resistance broken gold has risen over 6% │ │ this thread covers the whole consolidation move, where i explained how it's a bullish precursor │ │ the original goal of this thread was to follow gold until it breaks $3.5K, and now we're 0.15K above 😄 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-16 12:57 after ECB's realized gains are booked to PnL, the ECB splits up the net profit as: ➖ up to 20% to the general reserve fund, which can be used to offset future PnL losses ➖ the rest distributed to the NCB's, proportional to the National Central Bank's paid-up shares 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-16 12:55: ┌─ thus, unrealized gold gains accumulate on the ECB's liability side, under the revaluation account, and the only way they can be debited (e.g. to cover expenses, or credit an NCB's reserve account) is: │ │ 1️⃣ when the ECB sells the gold, thus turning an unrealized gain into a realized one │ │ 2️⃣ offset future losses in the gold bucket └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-16 12:55 thus, unrealized gold gains accumulate on the ECB's liability side, under the revaluation account, and the only way they can be debited (e.g. to cover expenses, or credit an NCB's reserve account) is: 1️⃣ when the ECB sells the gold, thus turning an unrealized gain into a realized one 2️⃣ offset future losses in the gold bucket 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-16 12:52: ┌─ this means the ECB can only use unrealized gold gains to cover/offset future unrealized losses on gold │ │ these unrealized gains can neither offset an operational, nor a loss in another security bucket, such as FX └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-16 12:55 once a gain is realized, the corresponding proportion is debited to the revaluation account and credited to an income account/ booked to P&L at the end of the year PnL is closed into equity by increasing equity reserves and/or NCB liabilities ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-16 12:52 this means the ECB can only use unrealized gold gains to cover/offset future unrealized losses on gold these unrealized gains can neither offset an operational, nor a loss in another security bucket, such as FX 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-16 12:51: ┌─ moreover, as per Eurosystem's accounting framework unrealized gains are non-distributable and may only offset future unrealized losses on the same item └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-16 12:51 moreover, as per Eurosystem's accounting framework unrealized gains are non-distributable and may only offset future unrealized losses on the same item 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-16 12:49: ┌─ ECB's legal framework forbids the use of gold revaluation proceeds to pay expenses or operating losses │ │ unrealized gains are not recognized as income and are instead credited to the revaluation account │ │ revaluation account is under liability/equity on the ECB's balance sheet └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-16 12:49 ECB's legal framework forbids the use of gold revaluation proceeds to pay expenses or operating losses unrealized gains are not recognized as income and are instead credited to the revaluation account revaluation account is under liability/equity on the ECB's balance sheet ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-15 21:09 to clarify: European Central Bank didn't increase its gold holdings, but the gold that ECB already owns (≈506 tonnes) increased in value, since gold's market price increased ECB reevaluates gold at the end of every year and credits or debits the revelation account accordingly 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-15 20:52: ┌─ 🇪🇺 ECB gained €10.5B on gold from 2023 to 2024 │ │ 2025 YTD running gains add another net positive ≈€10B & likely to be higher by the year end's gold revaluation │ │ that's an implied ≈8% yield on gold appreciation - much more than the ECB earned from other asset buckets └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-15 20:52 🇪🇺 ECB gained €10.5B on gold from 2023 to 2024 2025 YTD running gains add another net positive ≈€10B & likely to be higher by the year end's gold revaluation that's an implied ≈8% yield on gold appreciation - much more than the ECB earned from other asset buckets ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-15 00:33 leverage and the carry trades eventually unwind at some point there isn't enough on-demand liquidity and mass defaults, losses and insolvency occur this is when the cycle tops/bubble pops 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-15 00:32: ┌─ the financial system is heavily dependent on refinancing │ │ this is true for both, governments and the public sector - especially the financial institutions │ │ ≈70% of all new credit is used for refinancing/repaying of existing maturing debt rather than novel financing └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-15 00:32 the financial system is heavily dependent on refinancing this is true for both, governments and the public sector - especially the financial institutions ≈70% of all new credit is used for refinancing/repaying of existing maturing debt rather than novel financing 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-14 22:52: ┌─ in addition to being a store of value, gold is also acting as an investment │ │ it's up ≈40% YTD │ │ this is gold catching up to inflation and accumulated leverage └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-14 22:52 in addition to being a store of value, gold is also acting as an investment it's up ≈40% YTD this is gold catching up to inflation and accumulated leverage 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-14 22:51: ┌─ the financial system infrastructure, including monetary policies of the central banks are correlated │ │ they're heavily exposed to the same set of assets - a lot of which are USD-denominated │ │ this is of course extremely pro-cyclical └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-14 22:51 the financial system infrastructure, including monetary policies of the central banks are correlated they're heavily exposed to the same set of assets - a lot of which are USD-denominated this is of course extremely pro-cyclical 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-14 22:51: ┌─ gold is a great asset to hold for the next 5 years │ │ it's a hedge against the credit & refinancing bubble of the US equity markets + government debt │ │ but not only against USD - all FIAT & risk assets including crypto └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-14 22:51 gold is a great asset to hold for the next 5 years it's a hedge against the credit & refinancing bubble of the US equity markets + government debt but not only against USD - all FIAT & risk assets including crypto ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-14 14:28 since i've written this, gold is up ≈16% ≈25% if you count from the tariffs announcements on April 7th i will re-iterate that in order to protect the EUR the ECB should increase their onshore gold holdings 📖 Quoting from 2025-04-03 17:28: ┌─ 🇪🇺 The best countermeasure that EU can take is swapping US securities for Gold │ │ Gold is inversely correlated with USD. Such a decision can be done today and it will: │ │ 1️⃣be a response to the US │ 2️⃣increase value of EUR │ 3️⃣minimize consumer impact │ │ Anything else will hurt the economy └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-13 15:01 this makes immovable property a good hedge against inflation and economic downturn price adjusts to value & while the composition of demand may change (e.g. shift towards smaller/cheaper units) - the demand for property will inherently remain high 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-13 14:55: ┌─ given that housing is a core necessity for most combined with the willingness of banks to finance against immovable property creates a high persistent demand for real estate └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-13 14:55 given that housing is a core necessity for most combined with the willingness of banks to finance against immovable property creates a high persistent demand for real estate 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-13 14:40: ┌─ as the immovable property appreciates, so do your assets and financing capacity. with a more valuable collateral asset - the bank will give a larger loan │ │ increasing real estate purchase prices push rent prices up as well. so may increased interest rates, since it's harder to buy └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-13 14:40 as the immovable property appreciates, so do your assets and financing capacity. with a more valuable collateral asset - the bank will give a larger loan increasing real estate purchase prices push rent prices up as well. so may increased interest rates, since it's harder to buy 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-13 14:38: ┌─ so by using real estate as collateral you're just tapping into the existing low interest liquidity/credit line │ │ at the same time the property earns a yield (e.g. via rents) and generally appreciates └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-13 14:38 so by using real estate as collateral you're just tapping into the existing low interest liquidity/credit line at the same time the property earns a yield (e.g. via rents) and generally appreciates 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-13 14:37: ┌─ this is why a 7 day Treasury bill-backed repo agreement may have 2% haircut and a 0.1% spread, while a 20 year immovable property collateralized loan a 25% haircut and a 2% spread │ │ the T-bill is more liquid, less volatile and the loan term is much shorter └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-13 14:37 this is why a 7 day Treasury bill-backed repo agreement may have 2% haircut and a 0.1% spread, while a 20 year immovable property collateralized loan a 25% haircut and a 2% spread the T-bill is more liquid, less volatile and the loan term is much shorter 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-13 14:12: ┌─ collateralized lending comes with smaller interest rates/financing cost because it's low risk for the lender │ │ if you default - the lender keeps your collateral │ │ haircuts and spread are set sufficiently high to cover liquidity, term and market risks └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-13 14:12 collateralized lending comes with smaller interest rates/financing cost because it's low risk for the lender if you default - the lender keeps your collateral haircuts and spread are set sufficiently high to cover liquidity, term and market risks 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-13 13:45: ┌─ ≈80% of lending in financial markets is collateral-based │ │ financial institutions use government bonds as collateral for short-term loans │ │ you're using immovable property as collateral for a generally longer term-loan └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-13 13:45 ≈80% of lending in financial markets is collateral-based financial institutions use government bonds as collateral for short-term loans you're using immovable property as collateral for a generally longer term-loan 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-12 00:19: ┌─ real estate is a great asset because banks lend ≈75% of its value │ │ so if your property is worth $100K, you can borrow $75K against it at a low rate │ │ the immovable property is used as collateral └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-12 00:19 real estate is a great asset because banks lend ≈75% of its value so if your property is worth $100K, you can borrow $75K against it at a low rate the immovable property is used as collateral ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-08 14:54 just as charted: with the yellow line resistance broken gold has risen over 6% this thread covers the whole consolidation move, where i explained how it's a bullish precursor the original goal of this thread was to follow gold until it breaks $3.5K, and now we're 0.15K above 😄 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-04 14:07: ┌─ now everyone is talking about gold 😄 │ │ i've been writing about an imminent new all time high and uptrend continuation for 3 months now - you can check back up on this thread │ │ every long call in this thread has been accurate │ │ gold is a very special asset this cycle └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-07 19:49 remember that real estate runs on credit - and in the most basic approach - the bank happily finances 75% of the value of the property. this is true even if you're just starting as you accumulate collateral/properties it becomes easier and easier, as you can cross-collateralize 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-07 19:46: ┌─ this increase will be more accentuated in lower per-capita GDP countries - as cross-border capital flows in to fill the price gap │ │ lower GDP + highly desired location is the recipe for higher yields 😄 │ │ you can observe this in countries like Portugal in the table below └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-07 19:46 this increase will be more accentuated in lower per-capita GDP countries - as cross-border capital flows in to fill the price gap lower GDP + highly desired location is the recipe for higher yields 😄 you can observe this in countries like Portugal in the table below 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-07 19:39: ┌─ EU real estate prices will continue to increase │ │ with investment capital moving away from US to the EU, a significant portion of it will will flow into housing, thus pushing sale and rent prices up │ │ specially true for high-demand areas, like coastal & large cities └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-07 19:39 EU real estate prices will continue to increase with investment capital moving away from US to the EU, a significant portion of it will will flow into housing, thus pushing sale and rent prices up specially true for high-demand areas, like coastal & large cities ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-06 00:24 i wrote a thread explaining the business model of banks here: https://illya.sh/threads/@1755863018-1.html the information in it is important to understand the balance sheet dynamics of gold reevaluation 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-06 00:11: ┌─ in order to understand the mechanics of gold revaluation - it's important to understand the unique legal position of banks to issue broad money, and that their mode of operation differs greatly from non-credit issuance businesses └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-06 00:11 in order to understand the mechanics of gold revaluation - it's important to understand the unique legal position of banks to issue broad money, and that their mode of operation differs greatly from non-credit issuance businesses 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-06 00:10: ┌─ soon i'll write a thread on how central banks/governments reevaluate gold and how the monetary gains can be used to cover central bank and/or government debt │ │ i'll add a link to it in this thread once it’s ready └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-06 00:10 soon i'll write a thread on how central banks/governments reevaluate gold and how the monetary gains can be used to cover central bank and/or government debt i'll add a link to it in this thread once it’s ready 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-06 00:08: ┌─ in practice, some level of sanitization (direct or indirect) will occur, and that Treasury debt/safe collateral would likely be reintroduced back via Treasury issuance and/or Fed facilities within a year └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-06 00:08 in practice, some level of sanitization (direct or indirect) will occur, and that Treasury debt/safe collateral would likely be reintroduced back via Treasury issuance and/or Fed facilities within a year 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-06 00:06: ┌─ so assuming no sanitization - an initial reduction of liquidity may occur └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-06 00:06 so assuming no sanitization - an initial reduction of liquidity may occur 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-06 00:05: ┌─ while the haircut may also fall (upward pressure on liquidity), the volume reduction (downward pressure on liquidity) is likely to have more weight, due to global refinancing/liquidity needs └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-06 00:05 while the haircut may also fall (upward pressure on liquidity), the volume reduction (downward pressure on liquidity) is likely to have more weight, due to global refinancing/liquidity needs 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-06 00:03: ┌─ so if the US Treasury revaluated gold and used all those proceeds to repurchase/retire debt it will likely have an initial negative effect on the liquidity, due to contraction in safe collateral └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-06 00:03 so if the US Treasury revaluated gold and used all those proceeds to repurchase/retire debt it will likely have an initial negative effect on the liquidity, due to contraction in safe collateral 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-06 00:02: ┌─ NCCBR participants are generally subject to regulations and balance sheet constraints - so don't think that null/negative haircuts means the collateral can be rehypothecated infinitely │ │ these bilateral arrangements is where financial institutions manage their liquidity needs └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-06 00:02 NCCBR participants are generally subject to regulations and balance sheet constraints - so don't think that null/negative haircuts means the collateral can be rehypothecated infinitely these bilateral arrangements is where financial institutions manage their liquidity needs 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-06 00:00: ┌─ NCCBR users are mostly institutions part of the financial market infrastructure - such as dealers and hedge funds │ │ they use NCCBR to manage their balance sheets and regulatory obligations. so a high need for Treasury collateral may drive the the haircuts negative └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-06 00:00 NCCBR users are mostly institutions part of the financial market infrastructure - such as dealers and hedge funds they use NCCBR to manage their balance sheets and regulatory obligations. so a high need for Treasury collateral may drive the the haircuts negative 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-06 00:00: ┌─ NCCBR are essentially bilateral OTC agreements - no central counterparty or tri-party custodian └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-06 00:00 NCCBR are essentially bilateral OTC agreements - no central counterparty or tri-party custodian 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-05 23:59: ┌─ in non-centrally cleared bilateral repos (NCCBR) the Treasury haircut is mostly 0%, and a significant portion has negative haircuts - meaning that more money is lent in the repo that the market value of the Treasury collateral └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-05 23:59 in non-centrally cleared bilateral repos (NCCBR) the Treasury haircut is mostly 0%, and a significant portion has negative haircuts - meaning that more money is lent in the repo that the market value of the Treasury collateral 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-05 13:40: ┌─ current tri-party repo haircut average for Treasury collateral is 2%, supervisory is 4% (Capital Adequacy Requirements) │ │ with a 2% haircut the collateral funding multiplier is 50x, with a 4% haircut - 25x │ │ the smaller the haircut - the larger the maximum rehypothecated credit └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-05 13:40 current tri-party repo haircut average for Treasury collateral is 2%, supervisory is 4% (Capital Adequacy Requirements) with a 2% haircut the collateral funding multiplier is 50x, with a 4% haircut - 25x the smaller the haircut - the larger the maximum rehypothecated credit 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-05 00:50: ┌─ thus, a 30 year Treasury bond trading at par (i.e. market value = face value = $1000) can create up to $50K of new liquidity/credit! │ │ you cannot leverage as much with reserve money. so a $1000 bond can create more liquidity than $1000 cash/reserves └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-05 00:50 thus, a 30 year Treasury bond trading at par (i.e. market value = face value = $1000) can create up to $50K of new liquidity/credit! you cannot leverage as much with reserve money. so a $1000 bond can create more liquidity than $1000 cash/reserves 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-05 00:47: ┌─ maximum liquidity added by bond = market value/haircut │ │ so a Treasury security worth $1000 with a haircut of 2%, can create up to $50000 in new credit/liquidity │ │ computed using the formula above: 1000/0.02=50000 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-05 00:47 maximum liquidity added by bond = market value/haircut so a Treasury security worth $1000 with a haircut of 2%, can create up to $50000 in new credit/liquidity computed using the formula above: 1000/0.02=50000 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-05 00:43: ┌─ to estimate the maximum liquidity that can be added by a bond divide the market value by its haircut (e.g. effective repo haircut on that bond) └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-05 00:43 to estimate the maximum liquidity that can be added by a bond divide the market value by its haircut (e.g. effective repo haircut on that bond) 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-05 00:40: ┌─ collateral gets reused/rehypothecated, reserves don't │ │ dealers re-pledge/re-use Treasuries, e.g. through repo and reverse repo. thus, the financing capacity of Treasury bills, notes and bonds exceeds their market value └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-05 00:40 collateral gets reused/rehypothecated, reserves don't dealers re-pledge/re-use Treasuries, e.g. through repo and reverse repo. thus, the financing capacity of Treasury bills, notes and bonds exceeds their market value 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-05 00:38: ┌─ retiring debt with gold revaluation would change the composition of liquidity: │ │ ➖ less US government bonds (safe collateral) │ ➕ more base money (reserves) and/or broad money (deposits) │ │ so the end result is more base and/or broad money, but less prime/repo-eligible collateral └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-05 00:38 retiring debt with gold revaluation would change the composition of liquidity: ➖ less US government bonds (safe collateral) ➕ more base money (reserves) and/or broad money (deposits) so the end result is more base and/or broad money, but less prime/repo-eligible collateral 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-05 00:34: ┌─ persistent deficits & refinancing needs will add $1 trillion of new debt in less than a year │ │ so gold revaluation is insignificant for US federal government's debt problem └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-05 00:34 persistent deficits & refinancing needs will add $1 trillion of new debt in less than a year so gold revaluation is insignificant for US federal government's debt problem 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-05 00:30: ┌─ assuming all of the gold revaluation gains get credited to the Treasury's general account to retire government debt (e.g. by re-purchasing US Treasury bonds from the market) - that would cover a mere ≈3% of outstanding US government debt └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-05 00:30 assuming all of the gold revaluation gains get credited to the Treasury's general account to retire government debt (e.g. by re-purchasing US Treasury bonds from the market) - that would cover a mere ≈3% of outstanding US government debt 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-04 23:29: ┌─ gold revaluation proceeds are not necessarily used to cover sovereign debt │ │ central banks of Italy, Germany, Lebanon, South Africa & Curaçao and Sint Maarten reevaluated gold in the past, with some using the proceeds to finance the government, while others the central bank └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-04 23:29 gold revaluation proceeds are not necessarily used to cover sovereign debt central banks of Italy, Germany, Lebanon, South Africa & Curaçao and Sint Maarten reevaluated gold in the past, with some using the proceeds to finance the government, while others the central bank 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-04 23:16: ┌─ gold revaluation will NOT solve the US debt problem │ │ the gain would cover less than 3% (≈1 trillion USD) of the outstanding national debt │ │ most recently it took ≈9 months for the US government to accumulate $1T in new debt │ │ previously, $1T in new debt was added in ≈100 days └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-04 23:16 gold revaluation will NOT solve the US debt problem the gain would cover less than 3% (≈1 trillion USD) of the outstanding national debt most recently it took ≈9 months for the US government to accumulate $1T in new debt previously, $1T in new debt was added in ≈100 days ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-04 14:07 now everyone is talking about gold 😄 i've been writing about an imminent new all time high and uptrend continuation for 3 months now - you can check back up on this thread every long call in this thread has been accurate gold is a very special asset this cycle 📖 Quoting from 2025-09-02 15:51: ┌─ gold reached $3500 new all time high 🥳 │ │ indeed once the yellow resistance trend line was broken - we saw a new all time high │ │ the extended consolidation built up a strong future support └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-09-02 15:51 gold reached $3500 new all time high 🥳 indeed once the yellow resistance trend line was broken - we saw a new all time high the extended consolidation built up a strong future support 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-28 23:47: ┌─ gold continues its uptrend towards the new $3500 all time high │ │ i've previously written how gold's price action suggests a consolidation before the next ATH │ │ the last main resistance is the upper yellow trend line. once it's claimed as support expect gold to shoot to new highs └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-29 20:01 real world and financial asset tokenization is ongoing worldwide, with transactions mostly settled in CBDCs government and corporate bonds are the most common RWA to be tokenized ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-28 23:47 gold continues its uptrend towards the new $3500 all time high i've previously written how gold's price action suggests a consolidation before the next ATH the last main resistance is the upper yellow trend line. once it's claimed as support expect gold to shoot to new highs 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-22 18:21: ┌─ quick update on gold: │ │ everything according to the plan - the thesis remains valid. now just wait and let the price action unfold 😄 │ │ use these trend lines as a guide └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-28 09:13 >80% of central banks plan to operate the DLT/blockchain for wholesale CBDCs themselves, hinting an in-house blockchain solution, and not a public and permissionless ledger 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-28 09:12: ┌─ however, even if CBDCs are implemented using blockchain - it's unlikely to be a public, permissionless blockchain like Ethereum └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-28 09:12 however, even if CBDCs are implemented using blockchain - it's unlikely to be a public, permissionless blockchain like Ethereum 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-28 09:07: ┌─ >50% of central banks in both, advanced and emerging economies are considering using DLT for wholesale CBDCs │ │ this means that wholesale CBDC is likely to be implemented using some form of blockchain technology - much more likely than the retail CBDC └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-28 09:07 >50% of central banks in both, advanced and emerging economies are considering using DLT for wholesale CBDCs this means that wholesale CBDC is likely to be implemented using some form of blockchain technology - much more likely than the retail CBDC 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-28 09:05: ┌─ only 6% of advanced economies (AE) central banks and 40% of emerging economies (EM) central banks are considering distributed ledger technology (DLT) as an implementation layer for retail CBDCs │ │ here, consider DLT = blockchain └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-28 09:05 only 6% of advanced economies (AE) central banks and 40% of emerging economies (EM) central banks are considering distributed ledger technology (DLT) as an implementation layer for retail CBDCs here, consider DLT = blockchain 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-28 00:11: ┌─ 91% of central banks are working on CBDCs, but not on a public blockchain │ │ 85 out of 93 central banks (≈94% of global economic output) are engaged in some form of CBDC work │ │ however, don't expect CBDCs to be implemented on permissionless blockchains like Ethereum └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-28 00:11 91% of central banks are working on CBDCs, but not on a public blockchain 85 out of 93 central banks (≈94% of global economic output) are engaged in some form of CBDC work however, don't expect CBDCs to be implemented on permissionless blockchains like Ethereum ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-27 22:17 thus, wholesale CBDC is a tokenized/digital version of central bank reserves used by the financial market infrastructure (FMI) and banks it also lives on the liability side of the central bank 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-27 22:12: ┌─ wholesale CBDC will be used by financial institutions only, such as commercial and central banks for interbank and market settlement │ │ wholesale CBDC will only be transacted between select financial institutions - it's not something you'd use as a regular business or consumer └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-27 22:12 wholesale CBDC will be used by financial institutions only, such as commercial and central banks for interbank and market settlement wholesale CBDC will only be transacted between select financial institutions - it's not something you'd use as a regular business or consumer 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-27 22:11: ┌─ retail CBDC is the digital version of currency - a liability of the central bank in the balance sheet └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-27 22:11 retail CBDC is the digital version of currency - a liability of the central bank in the balance sheet 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-27 22:08: ┌─ retail CBDC will be used for day-to-day payments, similar to the ones you do with with a credit card. this is the type of CBDC you can use for business and consumer transactions, such as paying for a supermarket purchase └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-27 22:08 retail CBDC will be used for day-to-day payments, similar to the ones you do with with a credit card. this is the type of CBDC you can use for business and consumer transactions, such as paying for a supermarket purchase 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-27 22:07: ┌─ wholesale CBDC vs retail CBDC - what's the difference? │ │ there's two types of central bank digital currencies (CBDC): retail CBDC and wholesale CBDC │ │ ➖ retail CBDC = used for ordinary transactions. digital version of the cash │ │ ➖ wholesale CBDC = used for interbank/financial institution settlement. tokenized central bank reserves └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-27 22:07 wholesale CBDC vs retail CBDC - what's the difference? there's two types of central bank digital currencies (CBDC): retail CBDC and wholesale CBDC ➖ retail CBDC = used for ordinary transactions. digital version of the cash ➖ wholesale CBDC = used for interbank/financial institution settlement. tokenized central bank reserves ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-26 01:56 retail CBDC is central bank money, so converting bank deposits into digital Euro changes the composition of the monetary base - fewer commercial bank reserves at the central bank, more central bank CBDC liabilities retail CBDC conversions settle in reserves 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-25 23:51: ┌─ ECB plans to limit the amount of digital Euro CBDC a wallet can hold │ │ this means you will be limited the amount of digital EUR you can own │ │ this applies only to retail European Central Bank CBDC, not wholesale. the idea is to prevent excessive outflows of deposits from banks └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-25 23:51 ECB plans to limit the amount of digital Euro CBDC a wallet can hold this means you will be limited the amount of digital EUR you can own this applies only to retail European Central Bank CBDC, not wholesale. the idea is to prevent excessive outflows of deposits from banks ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-24 13:59 same for wall street, main street, hawkish, dovish, bull, bear, cat bounce - whattt ????? this is neither about civil engineering nor wildlife reserve 🤨 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-24 13:53: ┌─ finance has A LOT to learn from engineering - especially in terms or standardization 😭 │ │ e.g. you're reading a british author, you may find "high street banks". it makes you think that there are also low street banks, or at least middle street banks, but noooo └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-24 13:53 finance has A LOT to learn from engineering - especially in terms or standardization 😭 e.g. you're reading a british author, you may find "high street banks". it makes you think that there are also low street banks, or at least middle street banks, but noooo ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-23 13:47 TGA fluctuations must be offset by another asset or liability from Fed's balance sheet ⬆️ TGA increase = liability down or asset up ⬇️ TGA decrease = liability up or asset down found this balance sheet model in Fed's notes, and it's a good visual aid to this thread 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-22 14:04: ┌─ Standing Repo Facility (SRF) is a policy rate set by the Fed, according to the target rate. so unless the target rate is decreased, SRF rate is unlikely to be reduced │ │ this situation is putting pressure on the Fed to decrease interest rates and start QE soon └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-22 18:21 quick update on gold: everything according to the plan - the thesis remains valid. now just wait and let the price action unfold 😄 use these trend lines as a guide 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-08 19:53: ┌─ gold tariffs put further upside pressure for gold towards a new all time high on spot │ │ this is in addition to the global monetary, geopolitical and fiscal positive price pressures │ │ a significant part of the markets will be closed for the weekend. there could be a gap on reopen └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-22 14:04 Standing Repo Facility (SRF) is a policy rate set by the Fed, according to the target rate. so unless the target rate is decreased, SRF rate is unlikely to be reduced this situation is putting pressure on the Fed to decrease interest rates and start QE soon 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-22 14:02: ┌─ the funding could also come from Fed’s facilities, like the SRF or OMO │ │ however, current SRF rate is 4.5%, which is above the yield on T-bills, and Fed is still officially in QT, so no large-scale, longer-term liquidity injections via open market operations └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-22 14:02 the funding could also come from Fed’s facilities, like the SRF or OMO however, current SRF rate is 4.5%, which is above the yield on T-bills, and Fed is still officially in QT, so no large-scale, longer-term liquidity injections via open market operations 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-22 13:58: ┌─ moreover, currently the US Treasury is issuing debt and cash at ON RRP is running low. MMF, dealers and banks purchase those T-bills. if they do not have cash in ON RRP, it will be financed by outflows from bank reserve accounts into TGA └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-22 13:58 moreover, currently the US Treasury is issuing debt and cash at ON RRP is running low. MMF, dealers and banks purchase those T-bills. if they do not have cash in ON RRP, it will be financed by outflows from bank reserve accounts into TGA 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-22 13:58: ┌─ this is one of the reasons why September is historically a bad month for Bitcoin └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-22 13:58 this is one of the reasons why September is historically a bad month for Bitcoin 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-22 13:51: ┌─ repo rates increase and borrowing decreases in quarter-ends │ │ this includes the upcoming month of September. in addition, September 15th the corporate tax limit in the US │ │ this reduces global liquidity, so asset prices tend to fall └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-22 13:51 repo rates increase and borrowing decreases in quarter-ends this includes the upcoming month of September. in addition, September 15th the corporate tax limit in the US this reduces global liquidity, so asset prices tend to fall ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-22 13:27 this is also why commercial banks purchasing government debt securities, such as Treasury bills may be effectively monetizing that debt 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-22 13:25: ┌─ generally speaking: │ │ ➖ transaction between central bank accounts = base money reallocated, decreased or increased │ │ ➖ transaction between non-central bank accounts = broad money reallocated, decreased or increased └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-22 13:25 generally speaking: ➖ transaction between central bank accounts = base money reallocated, decreased or increased ➖ transaction between non-central bank accounts = broad money reallocated, decreased or increased 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-22 13:19: ┌─ effectively this means that if both parties involved in the transaction have an account at the central bank, they will will use it to settle payments └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-22 13:19 effectively this means that if both parties involved in the transaction have an account at the central bank, they will will use it to settle payments 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-22 13:18: ┌─ reserve accounts at the central bank are important to understand the mechanics of how asset purchase happens. generally speaking, if an institution has an account at the central bank - reserve or other deposit account, they will use it whenever possible to settle payment └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-22 13:18 reserve accounts at the central bank are important to understand the mechanics of how asset purchase happens. generally speaking, if an institution has an account at the central bank - reserve or other deposit account, they will use it whenever possible to settle payment 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-22 13:08: ┌─ also note that it's not just commercial banks that have accounts at the central bank. it varies by jurisdiction, but other entities also have accounts at the central bank │ │ for example, in the US the Treasury has an account at the Fed - the Treasury General Account (TGA) └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-22 13:08 also note that it's not just commercial banks that have accounts at the central bank. it varies by jurisdiction, but other entities also have accounts at the central bank for example, in the US the Treasury has an account at the Fed - the Treasury General Account (TGA) 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-22 13:08: ┌─ if it's the central bank buying assets from other banks, such as in QE - then the central bank also creates the deposit "out of thin air", thus effectively paying for the assets to the commercial bank with a newly created deposit into their reserve account. base money increases └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-22 13:08 if it's the central bank buying assets from other banks, such as in QE - then the central bank also creates the deposit "out of thin air", thus effectively paying for the assets to the commercial bank with a newly created deposit into their reserve account. base money increases 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-22 13:06: ┌─ when banks buy assets from other banks - new deposits do not get created, as the payment happens by moving funds between the commercial bank's reserve accounts at the central bank │ │ thus, it's base money movements/reallocation, not creation └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-22 13:06 when banks buy assets from other banks - new deposits do not get created, as the payment happens by moving funds between the commercial bank's reserve accounts at the central bank thus, it's base money movements/reallocation, not creation 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-22 13:06: ┌─ let's say the bank bought a T-bill from you for $1000. for this, they "created $1000" and deposited them into your account. bank’s balance sheet: │ │ ➖ Assets: +$1000 (the T-bill) │ ➖ Liabilities: +$1000 (the deposit/payment to you) │ │ the key here is that you are a NON-bank └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-22 13:06 let's say the bank bought a T-bill from you for $1000. for this, they "created $1000" and deposited them into your account. bank’s balance sheet: ➖ Assets: +$1000 (the T-bill) ➖ Liabilities: +$1000 (the deposit/payment to you) the key here is that you are a NON-bank 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-22 13:04: ┌─ here, the bank's assets increase by the value of the T-bill and liabilities increase by the amount that they paid you for it. in the balance sheet the T-bill will have the same value as what the bank paid you/deposited into your account └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-22 13:04 here, the bank's assets increase by the value of the T-bill and liabilities increase by the amount that they paid you for it. in the balance sheet the T-bill will have the same value as what the bank paid you/deposited into your account 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-22 13:03: ┌─ the bank doesn't need to have the money to pay you for the T-bill, as that money will be created and deposited into your account │ │ on the bank's sheet side it works: its assets and liabilities increase in the same amount └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-22 13:03 the bank doesn't need to have the money to pay you for the T-bill, as that money will be created and deposited into your account on the bank's sheet side it works: its assets and liabilities increase in the same amount 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-22 12:43: ┌─ when a bank buys an asset from a non-bank it creates broad money │ │ if a commercial bank buys a US Treasury bill from you, it will pay you by create a new deposit into your account │ │ so effectively the bank pays you by creating new digital currency and crediting it into your account └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-22 12:43 when a bank buys an asset from a non-bank it creates broad money if a commercial bank buys a US Treasury bill from you, it will pay you by create a new deposit into your account so effectively the bank pays you by creating new digital currency and crediting it into your account ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-21 12:57 most of auctioned Treasury bills in 2025 are bought domestically foreign investors are net sellers, so the new T-bill supply is being absorbed by US-based institutions so most of short-term US debt is being absorbed by the US economy and not by foreign investors ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-20 20:54 🇨🇳 China is considering Yuan-backed stablecoins, which will lower short-term CGB yields that's assuming the stablecoin issuers will proxy short-term government bonds, like in the US i wrote a thread explaining that. you can read it here: https://illya.sh/threads/@1755378840-1.html ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-20 20:43 the specific QE policies will vary, but it will probably include an MBS-style QE like in QE1 2008. this will lower mortgage rates short-term I explained why in this thread: https://illya.sh/threads/@1754148538-1.html 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-20 20:43: ┌─ the next burst in global liquidity/larger financial crisis will only happen after several more rounds of QE │ │ the next round of QE is close, but hasn’t even started yet and rates were not cut. however, the next big debt refinancing is underway └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-20 20:43 the next burst in global liquidity/larger financial crisis will only happen after several more rounds of QE the next round of QE is close, but hasn’t even started yet and rates were not cut. however, the next big debt refinancing is underway 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-20 20:42: ┌─ still, at some point QE's won't be able to prevent a prolonged negative impact on the market - the top of the cycle or close to it │ │ we're not there yet └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-20 20:42 still, at some point QE's won't be able to prevent a prolonged negative impact on the market - the top of the cycle or close to it we're not there yet 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-20 20:36: ┌─ eventually, the carry will unwind and debt needs to be refinanced │ │ more QE-like measures will be taken, but eventually it won't be enough to prevent deleveraging/burst. this means defaults, margin calls, etc. the latter will likely be addressed by another form of QE └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-20 20:36 eventually, the carry will unwind and debt needs to be refinanced more QE-like measures will be taken, but eventually it won't be enough to prevent deleveraging/burst. this means defaults, margin calls, etc. the latter will likely be addressed by another form of QE 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-20 20:36: ┌─ in conjunction, this creates an upward pressure in the global liquidity for the near future │ │ of course, this also builds up on leverage in the form of market-wide carry trades, and duration mismatching in the form of rolling over of debt by the Treasury └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-20 20:36 in conjunction, this creates an upward pressure in the global liquidity for the near future of course, this also builds up on leverage in the form of market-wide carry trades, and duration mismatching in the form of rolling over of debt by the Treasury 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-20 20:35: ┌─ i explained how weaker US dollar increases cross-border USD liquidity in this thread: https://illya.sh/threads/@1755216337-1.html └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-20 20:35 i explained how weaker US dollar increases cross-border USD liquidity in this thread: https://illya.sh/threads/@1755216337-1.html 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-20 20:35: ┌─ weaker USD, means appreciation of FX currencies and since many cross-border bank loans are collateralized with a local currency - solvency ratios improve, thus increasing balance sheet capacity for more USD credit │ │ this means an increase in broad money └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-20 20:35 weaker USD, means appreciation of FX currencies and since many cross-border bank loans are collateralized with a local currency - solvency ratios improve, thus increasing balance sheet capacity for more USD credit this means an increase in broad money 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-20 20:35: ┌─ i covered more this aspect of QE in my thread about how to use yield spreads to reason about future Bitcoin price and cycles │ │ you can read it here: https://illya.sh/threads/@1755595543-1.html └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-20 20:35 i covered more this aspect of QE in my thread about how to use yield spreads to reason about future Bitcoin price and cycles you can read it here: https://illya.sh/threads/@1755595543-1.html 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-20 20:35: ┌─ once Fed does QE, reserve account balances increase, thus directly increasing base money │ │ broad money either increases indirectly or directly if the Fed credits a non-bank institution └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-20 20:35 once Fed does QE, reserve account balances increase, thus directly increasing base money broad money either increases indirectly or directly if the Fed credits a non-bank institution 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-20 20:34: ┌─ once Fed cuts interest rates, more borrowing will occur, thus expanding broad money │ │ it will also lower T-bill yields short-term, as the prices are bid up due to a lower risk-free rate └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-20 20:34 once Fed cuts interest rates, more borrowing will occur, thus expanding broad money it will also lower T-bill yields short-term, as the prices are bid up due to a lower risk-free rate 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-20 20:33: ┌─ a lot of these US treasury purchases will be financed with short-term rolling debt (e.g. repo) │ │ the newly issued Treasuries themselves will be used as collateral to borrow cash, many times over via rehypothecation └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-20 20:33 a lot of these US treasury purchases will be financed with short-term rolling debt (e.g. repo) the newly issued Treasuries themselves will be used as collateral to borrow cash, many times over via rehypothecation 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-20 20:29: ┌─ it's NOT yet the top of the cycle for equities, cryptocurrencies and other risk assets. here’s why │ │ 1️⃣ US Treasury is issuing more debt │ │ 2️⃣ in the next months I expect the Fed to cut rates and/or introduce some form of QE │ │ 3️⃣ weaker USD means more cross-border USD credit └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-20 20:29 it's NOT yet the top of the cycle for equities, cryptocurrencies and other risk assets. here’s why 1️⃣ US Treasury is issuing more debt 2️⃣ in the next months I expect the Fed to cut rates and/or introduce some form of QE 3️⃣ weaker USD means more cross-border USD credit ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-19 20:56 it's NOT the top yet - i'll post a thread with an explanation soon stay tuned 👀 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-19 11:18 cryptocurrency prices perform well when yield spreads are low/decreasing and bad when yield spreads are high/increasing this is specifically true when you analyze it at a higher timeframe - think monthly timescale instead of daily one. and the larger the spike/change 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-19 11:17: ┌─ eventually this carry trade unwinds, and yield spreads soar. balance sheet constrains, existing positions get too expensive too roll-over/re-finance that’s where you get the big(er) financial crisis │ │ and then you get more QE/lower rates to address that └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-19 11:17 eventually this carry trade unwinds, and yield spreads soar. balance sheet constrains, existing positions get too expensive too roll-over/re-finance that’s where you get the big(er) financial crisis and then you get more QE/lower rates to address that 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-19 11:14: ┌─ US Treasury debt is likely to be among the assets purchased by those same banks that received QE funds from the central bank. so central bank's QE injection may be used to purchase US Treasury debt at auctions, thus effectively monetizing the government debt 😁 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-19 11:14 US Treasury debt is likely to be among the assets purchased by those same banks that received QE funds from the central bank. so central bank's QE injection may be used to purchase US Treasury debt at auctions, thus effectively monetizing the government debt 😁 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-19 11:11: ┌─ even if it doesn't happen directly at the start - eventually QE also increases broad money, due to reduced balance sheet constraints and an increase in cash reserves, which needs to be invested ASAP. this leads to more lending and asset purchases └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-19 11:11 even if it doesn't happen directly at the start - eventually QE also increases broad money, due to reduced balance sheet constraints and an increase in cash reserves, which needs to be invested ASAP. this leads to more lending and asset purchases 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-19 10:58: ┌─ initially QE may only increase base money supply - as commercial banks reserve balances get credited by the Central Bank │ │ if the Central Bank purchases assets from non-bank financial institutions, then broad money increases directly as well, as deposits increase └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-19 10:58 initially QE may only increase base money supply - as commercial banks reserve balances get credited by the Central Bank if the Central Bank purchases assets from non-bank financial institutions, then broad money increases directly as well, as deposits increase 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-19 10:44: ┌─ the US Treasury may also issue more debt to increase the supply of safe assets, thus offsetting the compression shock │ │ end result: more safe assets/prime collateral provided to markets. remember that the newly issued treasuries are likely to be rehypothecated several times └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-19 10:44 the US Treasury may also issue more debt to increase the supply of safe assets, thus offsetting the compression shock end result: more safe assets/prime collateral provided to markets. remember that the newly issued treasuries are likely to be rehypothecated several times 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-19 10:40: ┌─ the global financial system depends on the abundance of this collateral, otherwise - defaults, margin calls, etc │ │ i wrote a thread/article explaining how US Treasuries are the dominant collateral in short-term wholesale debt markets (e.g. repo). read here: https://illya.sh/threads/@1751726431-1.html └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-19 10:40 the global financial system depends on the abundance of this collateral, otherwise - defaults, margin calls, etc i wrote a thread/article explaining how US Treasuries are the dominant collateral in short-term wholesale debt markets (e.g. repo). read here: https://illya.sh/threads/@1751726431-1.html 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-19 10:36: ┌─ QE also removes safe collateral from the market, mainly US Treasury bills, notes and bonds. this safe collateral is the backbone of wholesale debt markets, where financial institutions, including commercial and central banks finance and re-finance their positions └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-19 10:36 QE also removes safe collateral from the market, mainly US Treasury bills, notes and bonds. this safe collateral is the backbone of wholesale debt markets, where financial institutions, including commercial and central banks finance and re-finance their positions 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-19 10:30: ┌─ however, eventually yield spreads will raise with high velocity. this is the larger financial crisis part of the cycle. there you will also see lower rates and more QE └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-19 10:30 however, eventually yield spreads will raise with high velocity. this is the larger financial crisis part of the cycle. there you will also see lower rates and more QE 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-19 10:30: ┌─ in the short-term, lower rates and/or QE means easier funding conditions, so more positions will get to be refinanced └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-19 10:30 in the short-term, lower rates and/or QE means easier funding conditions, so more positions will get to be refinanced 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-19 10:28: ┌─ the yield spreads may also start an almost vertical uptrend on a monthly timescale - this usually means a financial crisis to some degree │ │ that's probably not happening in the next 3 months though, as you can expect Federal Reserve to decrease interest rates and/or employ QE └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-19 10:28 the yield spreads may also start an almost vertical uptrend on a monthly timescale - this usually means a financial crisis to some degree that's probably not happening in the next 3 months though, as you can expect Federal Reserve to decrease interest rates and/or employ QE 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-19 10:25: ┌─ here's what yield spreads are saying about Bitcoin │ │ ≈3-3.40 is an important historical band which served as support bottom several times, including during COVID, and partly during the 2008 GFC │ │ so far it looks like a trend-reversal in the short-term, with the spreads heading up └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-19 10:25 here's what yield spreads are saying about Bitcoin ≈3-3.40 is an important historical band which served as support bottom several times, including during COVID, and partly during the 2008 GFC so far it looks like a trend-reversal in the short-term, with the spreads heading up ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-19 08:54 i just ran across meshtastic now, so cannot attest to the feasibility of implementing LoRA networks with it - but from the documentation it looks straightforward you can even write your code in Python! 🐍 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-19 08:54: ┌─ electromagnetic waves propagate at a ≈constant speed (speed of light), which means that you can estimate the distance between two communicating end nodes, or between a node and a relay │ │ similar approaches are used mitigate against range extender attacks for remote car unlocking └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-19 08:54 electromagnetic waves propagate at a ≈constant speed (speed of light), which means that you can estimate the distance between two communicating end nodes, or between a node and a relay similar approaches are used mitigate against range extender attacks for remote car unlocking 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-19 08:52: ┌─ you can use something like meshtastic to easily setup a network of end nodes and relays │ │ this also enables additional use-cases, like verifiable geolocation/proximity, and locale-restricted access └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-19 08:52 you can use something like meshtastic to easily setup a network of end nodes and relays this also enables additional use-cases, like verifiable geolocation/proximity, and locale-restricted access 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-19 08:52: ┌─ there should be more blockchains running over mesh technologies like LoRA │ │ this way you can keep the consensus and payments running even when internet is down │ │ polynomial commitments (ZK) can be used to store-and-forward transactions └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-19 08:52 there should be more blockchains running over mesh technologies like LoRA this way you can keep the consensus and payments running even when internet is down polynomial commitments (ZK) can be used to store-and-forward transactions ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-19 08:01 stablecoins are good for short-term interest rates i wrote a thread explaining why 📖 read it here: https://illya.sh/threads/@1755378840-1.html ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-18 21:20 so when market signals a higher risk appetite - Bitcoin tends to see inflows when market is more risk-averse - bitcoin tends to see outflows, alongside other risk assets you can use the US Treasury/riskier bonds yield spreads to understand BTC's trend direction. it's an alpha 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-18 21:14: ┌─ if you overlay Bitcoin's price history over those yield spreads, you will notice a significant level of correlation │ │ ⬆️ Bitcoin appreciates when spreads are lowering and/or low │ │ ⬇️ Bitcoin depreciates when spreads are increasing and/or high │ │ makes sense - Bitcoin is a risk asset └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-18 21:14 if you overlay Bitcoin's price history over those yield spreads, you will notice a significant level of correlation ⬆️ Bitcoin appreciates when spreads are lowering and/or low ⬇️ Bitcoin depreciates when spreads are increasing and/or high makes sense - Bitcoin is a risk asset 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-18 21:12: ┌─ thus, you interpret yield spreads between US Treasuries and riskier bonds as: │ │ 📈 increasing/high yield spread = risk-off │ 📉 lowering/low yield spread = risk-on └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-18 21:12 thus, you interpret yield spreads between US Treasuries and riskier bonds as: 📈 increasing/high yield spread = risk-off 📉 lowering/low yield spread = risk-on 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-18 21:09: ┌─ a lower yield spread means that the market requires less return per unit of risk │ │ lower yield spreads means that US Treasuries have a small premium over riskier bonds, thus the market is attributing a smaller premium to safe assets - a "risk-on" signal └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-18 21:09 a lower yield spread means that the market requires less return per unit of risk lower yield spreads means that US Treasuries have a small premium over riskier bonds, thus the market is attributing a smaller premium to safe assets - a "risk-on" signal 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-18 21:07: ┌─ yield spread between a safe asset and a riskier one is an expression of the required return per unit of risk │ │ higher yield spreads, means risker bonds are significantly cheaper than US Treasury bonds, thus the market is valuing safe assets with a premium - a "risk-off" signal └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-18 21:07 yield spread between a safe asset and a riskier one is an expression of the required return per unit of risk higher yield spreads, means risker bonds are significantly cheaper than US Treasury bonds, thus the market is valuing safe assets with a premium - a "risk-off" signal 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-18 21:04: ┌─ yield spreads between US Treasuries and riskier bonds mirror the price of Bitcoin │ │ in practice, there is a correlation between them: │ │ 📈 yield spreads up = ⬇️ BTC down │ 📉 yield spreads down = ⬆️ BTC up │ │ why? because those spreads are proxy for market's risk appetite └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-18 21:04 yield spreads between US Treasuries and riskier bonds mirror the price of Bitcoin in practice, there is a correlation between them: 📈 yield spreads up = ⬇️ BTC down 📉 yield spreads down = ⬆️ BTC up why? because those spreads are proxy for market's risk appetite ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-18 20:04 it's totally okay to use exceptions for error handling it depends on how you're using abstractions. e.g. EAFP in Python there are very few dogmas in software engineering - as the best architecture always depends on the operating context, environment and constraints ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-17 17:26 these regulatory constraints are synchronized to a significant degree across all jurisdictions this means that the financial regulations in EU & USA will have an analogous functional effect (although not the same!). so you can expect similar frameworks across several countries 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-17 16:56: ┌─ since all dealers are subject to functionally similar regulatory constraints, they're also subject to functionally similar set of balance sheet constraints │ │ this is important to remember in the context of global liquidity, especially in terms of pro-cyclical effects └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-17 16:56 since all dealers are subject to functionally similar regulatory constraints, they're also subject to functionally similar set of balance sheet constraints this is important to remember in the context of global liquidity, especially in terms of pro-cyclical effects 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-17 16:52: ┌─ bank dealers are subject to Basel III, non-bank dealers to other similar regulations │ │ non-bank dealers don't have HQLA or leverage ratio (Basel), but they have net capital haircuts and other leverage/margin requirements │ │ so all dealers are subject to a similar set of regulations └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-17 16:52 bank dealers are subject to Basel III, non-bank dealers to other similar regulations non-bank dealers don't have HQLA or leverage ratio (Basel), but they have net capital haircuts and other leverage/margin requirements so all dealers are subject to a similar set of regulations 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-17 16:42: ┌─ market makers and other dealers are also subject to regulatory balance sheet constraints │ │ many of them are banks, so frameworks like Basel III apply. non-bank dealers have similar regulations │ │ this means dealers are also subject to HQLA, haircuts, leverage limits and alike └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-17 16:42 market makers and other dealers are also subject to regulatory balance sheet constraints many of them are banks, so frameworks like Basel III apply. non-bank dealers have similar regulations this means dealers are also subject to HQLA, haircuts, leverage limits and alike ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-17 16:14 essentially many T-bill sales flood the market at once, so their price falls, thus causing a yield increase selling T-bills is more urgent than buying - the stablecoin issuer cannot split it across auctions & dealers as easily, so the market yield change is larger on outflows 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-17 16:05: ┌─ stablecoin outflows proxy T-bill sales or reduced rolling │ │ redemption/burn requires the stablecoin issuer to sell NOW, so large volumes means dealers/market makers will require a yield concession to warehouse those T-bills, as they are subject to balance sheet constraints └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-17 16:05 stablecoin outflows proxy T-bill sales or reduced rolling redemption/burn requires the stablecoin issuer to sell NOW, so large volumes means dealers/market makers will require a yield concession to warehouse those T-bills, as they are subject to balance sheet constraints 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-17 15:34: ┌─ this is because a stablecoin mint/creation on-chain is the proxy for a T-bill purchase by the company issuing that stablecoin (e.g. Circle, Tether) │ │ so stablecoin inflows proxy T-bill purchases, which raises their price and lowers the yield └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-17 15:34 this is because a stablecoin mint/creation on-chain is the proxy for a T-bill purchase by the company issuing that stablecoin (e.g. Circle, Tether) so stablecoin inflows proxy T-bill purchases, which raises their price and lowers the yield 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-16 22:14: ┌─ stablecoin inflows lower 3M Treasury bill yields, while outflows raise yields by a larger amount │ │ LP-IV estimates: │ ⏩ $3.5B inflows lower yields by ≈3 bp │ ⏪ $3.5B outflows raise the yields by ≈8 bp │ │ inflow = mint │ outflow = redemption/burn └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-16 22:14 stablecoin inflows lower 3M Treasury bill yields, while outflows raise yields by a larger amount LP-IV estimates: ⏩ $3.5B inflows lower yields by ≈3 bp ⏪ $3.5B outflows raise the yields by ≈8 bp inflow = mint outflow = redemption/burn ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-16 15:28 Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has a lot of interesting papers, articles and data on global liquidity and financial system it's bank-focused, but connected to the broader scope, like the non-bank financial institution (NBFI) credit flows i posted about earlier ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-16 13:01 i wrote a thread explaining why weaker USD means more credit/loans issued in USD, thus driving up global liquidity you can read it here: https://illya.sh/threads/@1755216337-1.html 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-16 12:42: ┌─ USD cross-border bank credit grew by $800 billion in Q1 2025 │ │ expect further increases for Q2 2025, due to the weak US dollar └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-16 12:44 it's not just the governments and financial institutions who are dependent on debt refinancing - the private non-financial sector as well remember than more than 70% of credit issuance is for servicing/refinancing of existing debt 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-16 12:44: ┌─ credit continues to expand in the non-financial sector as well │ │ the attached graph also shows a turning point in 2008 - that's how the GFC was handled - by issuing more credit 😁 │ │ you can also see a steeper increase during COVID └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-16 12:44 credit continues to expand in the non-financial sector as well the attached graph also shows a turning point in 2008 - that's how the GFC was handled - by issuing more credit 😁 you can also see a steeper increase during COVID ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-16 12:42 USD cross-border bank credit grew by $800 billion in Q1 2025 expect further increases for Q2 2025, due to the weak US dollar ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-16 12:39 renminbi has become dominant in credit growth since 2022 a move from US dollar & Euro denominated credit to Chinese Yuan-denominated credit ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-16 12:37 USD dominates in cross-border bank credit to non-bank financial institutions in 2025 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-16 12:30 in Russia, besides the Bank of Russia there's also the National Wealth Fund (NWF), which is operated by the Ministry of Finance in China, there's policy banks, such as China Development Bank which are supported by PBoC's facilities 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-16 11:44: ┌─ this collateral (US Treasury bonds) can then be used on wholesale debt markets to issue more credit │ │ moreover, this collateral can be leveraged/rehypothecated, thus increasing liquidity │ │ still, in the USA the Fed continues to dominate in importance └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-16 11:44 this collateral (US Treasury bonds) can then be used on wholesale debt markets to issue more credit moreover, this collateral can be leveraged/rehypothecated, thus increasing liquidity still, in the USA the Fed continues to dominate in importance 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-16 11:43: ┌─ so it may not only be central bank setting the rates and affecting liquidity │ │ for example, when US Treasury auctions bonds, they're both, temporarily reducing the effective amount of USD in circulation and providing more high-quanlity collateral └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-16 11:43 so it may not only be central bank setting the rates and affecting liquidity for example, when US Treasury auctions bonds, they're both, temporarily reducing the effective amount of USD in circulation and providing more high-quanlity collateral 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-16 11:41: ┌─ by "central bank" I'm frequently referring to the broader set of the legal framework behind the macro monetary policy │ │ in most countries central banks plays a key role, but they frequently co-exist in a larger network of institutions └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-16 11:41 by "central bank" I'm frequently referring to the broader set of the legal framework behind the macro monetary policy in most countries central banks plays a key role, but they frequently co-exist in a larger network of institutions ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-15 21:39 bank credit continues to grow, and it will continue to grow it will almost certainly break the 7% annual growth resistance central banks will expand balance sheets and lower interest rates to refinance the existing public and private debt data source: BIS 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-15 21:35: ┌─ outstanding cross-border bank credit reached a record of $34.7 trillion │ │ the latest increase was driven by increased lending to non-bank financial institutions (NBIFs), with most of the credit being issued in USD or EUR └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-15 21:35 outstanding cross-border bank credit reached a record of $34.7 trillion the latest increase was driven by increased lending to non-bank financial institutions (NBIFs), with most of the credit being issued in USD or EUR ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-15 14:45 so a weaker US dollar tends to increase global USD liquidity in the SVAR, one standard deviation of US dollar's appreciation leads to a fall in cross-border USD lending. it reaches its bottom after 6 months and then eventually recovers after 2.5 years if no new shocks arrive 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-15 01:09: ┌─ bank's leverage ratios improve due to collateral appreciation, thus allowing them to borrow more USD │ │ collateral here is the non-USD local currency, such as Yuan └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-15 01:09 bank's leverage ratios improve due to collateral appreciation, thus allowing them to borrow more USD collateral here is the non-USD local currency, such as Yuan 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-15 01:05: ┌─ weaker US dollar means more USD credit issuance abroad - here's why │ │ foreign banks frequently borrow USD through wholesale markets with a local currency denominated collateral │ │ when USD depreciates against a local currency, offshore USD credit now has a reduced debt service └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-15 01:05 weaker US dollar means more USD credit issuance abroad - here's why foreign banks frequently borrow USD through wholesale markets with a local currency denominated collateral when USD depreciates against a local currency, offshore USD credit now has a reduced debt service ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-15 00:25 offsetting losses with future profits is explicitly allowed under Article 33 of Statute of ESCB & ECB ESCB = ECB + EU National Central Banks (NCBs) so this applies to both, the European Central Bank, and all EU National Central Banks 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-14 21:00: ┌─ equity is the residual claim on assets after all liabilities are paid │ │ equity = assets - liabilities │ │ so the ECB just covers the loss with their equity. this equity reduction is carried forward to be offset by future profits └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-15 00:11 i wrote a thread about what it means for the US dollar to be the reserve currency from the perspective of demand and liquidity you can read it here: https://illya.sh/threads/@1754940239-1.html 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-14 20:28: ┌─ this is nothing unusual though - many governments do this, and it's mostly towards stabilizing the exchange rate with USD │ │ to a large extent this is a result US dollar's reserve currency status and its dominance in use for all sorts of financial transactions └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-14 21:00 equity is the residual claim on assets after all liabilities are paid equity = assets - liabilities so the ECB just covers the loss with their equity. this equity reduction is carried forward to be offset by future profits 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-14 20:58: ┌─ ECB says that the loss will remain on the balance sheet and will be offset by future profits │ │ the loss happened because ECB spent more than earned. they did so by using cash, selling assets or increasing liabilities │ │ the net effect is the same: reduction in equity └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-14 20:58 ECB says that the loss will remain on the balance sheet and will be offset by future profits the loss happened because ECB spent more than earned. they did so by using cash, selling assets or increasing liabilities the net effect is the same: reduction in equity 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-14 20:55: ┌─ 🇪🇺 ECB's "business model" is as follows: │ │ ➕ income: ECB creates money and invests it into financial assets (e.g.: FX, bonds, funds) │ │ ➖expenses, such as operational expanses (e.g. staff), facility and open market operation expenses (e.g. TARGET) │ │ profit/loss = income - expenses └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-14 20:55 🇪🇺 ECB's "business model" is as follows: ➕ income: ECB creates money and invests it into financial assets (e.g.: FX, bonds, funds) ➖expenses, such as operational expanses (e.g. staff), facility and open market operation expenses (e.g. TARGET) profit/loss = income - expenses 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-14 20:53: ┌─ ECB recorded an €8 billion loss in 2024 - what happens in that case? │ │ that's a balance sheet question. to understand what happens we need to look into the operational or "business" model of the European Central Bank └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-14 20:53 ECB recorded an €8 billion loss in 2024 - what happens in that case? that's a balance sheet question. to understand what happens we need to look into the operational or "business" model of the European Central Bank ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-14 20:28 this is nothing unusual though - many governments do this, and it's mostly towards stabilizing the exchange rate with USD to a large extent this is a result US dollar's reserve currency status and its dominance in use for all sorts of financial transactions 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-14 20:21: ┌─ 🇯🇵 Yen's exchange rate stabilization is a responsibility of the Minister of Finance (MoF) │ │ MoF is also the holder of Japan's international reserves - not the Bank of Japan │ │ so in Japan the government has significant responsibility for USD/JPY └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-14 20:21 🇯🇵 Yen's exchange rate stabilization is a responsibility of the Minister of Finance (MoF) MoF is also the holder of Japan's international reserves - not the Bank of Japan so in Japan the government has significant responsibility for USD/JPY ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-14 11:23 and there it is - a new BTC all time high in Euro 🇪🇺🥳 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-13 23:54: ┌─ and soon the Eurozone will join the new BTC all time high party 🇪🇺🥳 │ │ Bitcoin still hasn't seen a new high in EUR since January 2025 │ │ this happened to due the relative appreciation apprtetiation of Euro against US dollar └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 23:54 and soon the Eurozone will join the new BTC all time high party 🇪🇺🥳 Bitcoin still hasn't seen a new high in EUR since January 2025 this happened to due the relative appreciation apprtetiation of Euro against US dollar 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-13 23:51: ┌─ and there you go, Bitcoin reached a new all time high 😄 │ │ notice how precisely it respect the trend lines └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 23:51 and there you go, Bitcoin reached a new all time high 😄 notice how precisely it respect the trend lines 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-11 22:34: ┌─ bitcoin went up 6% from the weekly support line │ │ until the end of this month, bitcoin will either see a new all time high or retest the ≈$0.1095M support │ │ this is the daily timescale of the same chart - the blue and red lines are weekly, green is daily │ │ just a quick check-up └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 21:18 so according to this, since Treasuries yield more than ON RRP the wholesale cash moved from ON RRP into Treasuries when the US Treasury spends them - they flow right back into broad money indeed, currently T bills yield from 4.29%, while ON RRP is at 4.25% interesting take! ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 20:50 the US treasury is doing exactly that - issuing short-term debt to retire/repurchased long-term debt that's effectively refinancing longer-term debt with shorter-term debt. this shorter-term debt will also need to be refinanced, but now much sooner 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-13 02:02: ┌─ this is why duration matching is key for financial institutions │ │ this is also the reason why it's generally not a good idea for governments to refinance long-term debt with short-term debt │ │ this shortens the duration of both - government liabilities and market's assets └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 17:34 gold is in the same price range as when the US dollar index was ≈97.7 on July 25th 2025 if DXY hits ≈97.1 - expect gold to retest ≈$3440. this time with a stronger support build up by price action this could definitely be what pushes gold to a new all time high 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-12 22:52: ┌─ re-iterating on the 1.5 month old thread 😄 │ │ inflation is still here to stay and gold is still yet to do something - but it sure will └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 02:02 this is why duration matching is key for financial institutions this is also the reason why it's generally not a good idea for governments to refinance long-term debt with short-term debt this shortens the duration of both - government liabilities and market's assets 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-13 00:30: ┌─ duration matching protects: │ │ ➖ liquidity via cashflow modulation, by helping liability cashflows match asset cashflows │ │ ➖ solvency via asset and liability value modulation, by reducing asset value loss when yields fall and reducing liability value loss when yields raise └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 01:49 and the crypto market cap has now been sitting at $4 trillion for the 3rd day 🤝 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-20 09:40: ┌─ 🚀 and indeed the crypto cap increased even more │ │ now, await for a solid $4 Trillion │ │ it's almost like it's correlated with global liquidity flows - or perhaps I'm just really good at guessing 😳 │ │ i wrote a lot about this in the past - so read up for details if inerested! └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 00:30 duration matching protects: ➖ liquidity via cashflow modulation, by helping liability cashflows match asset cashflows ➖ solvency via asset and liability value modulation, by reducing asset value loss when yields fall and reducing liability value loss when yields raise 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-13 00:29: ┌─ duration matching protects liquidity and solvency by modulating yield shift effects on the value of assets and liabilities └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 00:29 duration matching protects liquidity and solvency by modulating yield shift effects on the value of assets and liabilities 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-13 00:28: ┌─ since a 30 year bond discounts 30 years of cashflows and those cashflows directly incorporate this compounding yield - its price moves more with yields than a comparable, shorter time to maturity bond └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 00:28 since a 30 year bond discounts 30 years of cashflows and those cashflows directly incorporate this compounding yield - its price moves more with yields than a comparable, shorter time to maturity bond 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-13 00:27: ┌─ regarding 1 year vs 30 year bond - imagine yields rise by 2%: │ │ ➖ the price of the bond maturing in 1 year declines by discounting those 2% from 1 year of cashflows │ │ ➖ a 30 year bond discounts for 30 years of cashflows └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 00:27 regarding 1 year vs 30 year bond - imagine yields rise by 2%: ➖ the price of the bond maturing in 1 year declines by discounting those 2% from 1 year of cashflows ➖ a 30 year bond discounts for 30 years of cashflows 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-13 00:25: ┌─ the longer the bond's time to maturity - the more compounding of unfavorable yields the bond's price must incorporate │ │ the more technical term is discounting, but compounding of unfavorable yields may help in bulging the mental model for what happens └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 00:25 the longer the bond's time to maturity - the more compounding of unfavorable yields the bond's price must incorporate the more technical term is discounting, but compounding of unfavorable yields may help in bulging the mental model for what happens 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-13 00:24: ┌─ larger modified duration value means that the bond's price is more sensitive to changes in bond yields │ │ this makes sense. the longer the time to maturity - the longer the risk and term premia comes into play └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 00:24 larger modified duration value means that the bond's price is more sensitive to changes in bond yields this makes sense. the longer the time to maturity - the longer the risk and term premia comes into play 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-13 00:23: ┌─ modified duration quantifies how much a bond’s price will change for a 1% change in bond yields │ │ while the bond pays fix sums - its market value/price varies, so its yield is not fixed └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 00:23 modified duration quantifies how much a bond’s price will change for a 1% change in bond yields while the bond pays fix sums - its market value/price varies, so its yield is not fixed 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-13 00:23: ┌─ that's a problem because the market price of the bond may have fallen significantly and the rest of the bond payment - 1.5% coupon + principal needs to be re-financed at potentially unfavorable rates └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 00:23 that's a problem because the market price of the bond may have fallen significantly and the rest of the bond payment - 1.5% coupon + principal needs to be re-financed at potentially unfavorable rates 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-13 00:22: ┌─ the bank's only option now is to sell the UST bond they hold at the market price, and use the proceeds to settle the 1.5% semiannual coupon liability └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 00:22 the bank's only option now is to sell the UST bond they hold at the market price, and use the proceeds to settle the 1.5% semiannual coupon liability 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-13 00:22: ┌─ now the bank has an issue - the 1.5% liability payment is in 6 months, while 4% yield from the asset financed by that liability only gets paid in 1 year │ │ while the bank will have the money to pay in the future - it doesn't have it now └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 00:22 now the bank has an issue - the 1.5% liability payment is in 6 months, while 4% yield from the asset financed by that liability only gets paid in 1 year while the bank will have the money to pay in the future - it doesn't have it now 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-13 00:20: ┌─ what would happen if the bank issued bonds with a semi-annual coupon instead? │ │ semi-anual coupon means that bondholders get 2 ≈1.5% interest payments in the year: at 6 months, and maturity │ │ remember: the UST bond only has one payment - at maturity in 1 year (think zero-coupon) └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 00:20 what would happen if the bank issued bonds with a semi-annual coupon instead? semi-anual coupon means that bondholders get 2 ≈1.5% interest payments in the year: at 6 months, and maturity remember: the UST bond only has one payment - at maturity in 1 year (think zero-coupon) 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-13 00:18: ┌─ assume that both start simultaneously and mature in 1 year without any periodic payments │ │ this means that today the bank borrows $100M at 3% APY and invests it at 4% │ │ in exactly 1 year the bank receives $104M from the UST bond, repays $103M to bondholders and keeps $1M profit └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 00:18 assume that both start simultaneously and mature in 1 year without any periodic payments this means that today the bank borrows $100M at 3% APY and invests it at 4% in exactly 1 year the bank receives $104M from the UST bond, repays $103M to bondholders and keeps $1M profit 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-13 00:18: ┌─ let's say the bank issued bonds (liability) at 3% and acquired UST bonds (asset) with a 4% yield │ │ both assets and liabilities have a transaction amount of $100 million │ │ the bank uses the loan (issued bond) to purchase higher yield UST bonds, thus profiting a ≈1% spread └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 00:18 let's say the bank issued bonds (liability) at 3% and acquired UST bonds (asset) with a 4% yield both assets and liabilities have a transaction amount of $100 million the bank uses the loan (issued bond) to purchase higher yield UST bonds, thus profiting a ≈1% spread 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-13 00:10: ┌─ let's develop on this simple bank example │ │ assume a brand-new bank with an empty balance sheet, no revenue, no deposits, no cashflow and no regulations │ │ the bank is about to finance its first asset - a UST bond with a liability - bonds issued by the bank └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 00:10 let's develop on this simple bank example assume a brand-new bank with an empty balance sheet, no revenue, no deposits, no cashflow and no regulations the bank is about to finance its first asset - a UST bond with a liability - bonds issued by the bank 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-13 00:02: ┌─ this newly acquired UST bond was financed with some liability of the bank │ │ let's say the bank itself issued bonds with a smaller coupon than UST’s │ │ thus, the bank used a liability to finance and asset and earns a spread └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 00:02 this newly acquired UST bond was financed with some liability of the bank let's say the bank itself issued bonds with a smaller coupon than UST’s thus, the bank used a liability to finance and asset and earns a spread 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-13 00:00: ┌─ a bank may buy a US Treasury bond (UST) and hold it as an asset. at some point, that bond matures, thus terminating its existence └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-13 00:00 a bank may buy a US Treasury bond (UST) and hold it as an asset. at some point, that bond matures, thus terminating its existence 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-12 23:58: ┌─ most of financial institution's assets have an expiration date │ │ these assets are mostly composed of loans, debt securities and money market instruments │ │ still, all come with an expiration date └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-12 23:58 most of financial institution's assets have an expiration date these assets are mostly composed of loans, debt securities and money market instruments still, all come with an expiration date 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-12 23:57: ┌─ when liabilities become due you must ensure that assets can cover them │ │ this means ensuring that cashflow and asset monetization provides enough liquidity to settle the debt, plus a desired spread └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-12 23:57 when liabilities become due you must ensure that assets can cover them this means ensuring that cashflow and asset monetization provides enough liquidity to settle the debt, plus a desired spread 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-12 23:56: ┌─ duration matching protects solvency and liquidity when yields shift │ │ assets are financed by liabilities and equity. financial institutions like banks usually have small equity - so liabilities finance assets └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-12 23:56 duration matching protects solvency and liquidity when yields shift assets are financed by liabilities and equity. financial institutions like banks usually have small equity - so liabilities finance assets ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-12 22:52 re-iterating on the 1.5 month old thread 😄 inflation is still here to stay and gold is still yet to do something - but it sure will 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-21 17:51: ┌─ although gold already did a lot since this post - this is just the beginning ✨ │ │ persistent high inflation is here to stay │ │ FIAT currencies will continue to devalue, specially with the massive government debit refinancing & further interest rate cuts └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-11 23:00 i also wrote a thread explaining the importance of USD-denominated government debt for short-term funding/credit markets remember that most of credit is issued to refinance existing debt and not for new financing you can read it here: https://illya.sh/threads/@1751726431-1 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-11 21:08: ┌─ i wrote about how reverse repurchase agreements work and their importance in the global financial system in this thread: │ https://illya.sh/threads/@1751561045-2 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-11 22:34 bitcoin went up 6% from the weekly support line until the end of this month, bitcoin will either see a new all time high or retest the ≈$0.1095M support this is the daily timescale of the same chart - the blue and red lines are weekly, green is daily just a quick check-up 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-04 18:28: ┌─ Bitcoin is still in a weekly uptrend it must either go up or down to ≈$109500 - a strong weekly support │ │ two factors in play here: │ │ 1️⃣ USD index - inverse correlation │ 2️⃣ Global liquidity- correlation │ │ keep watching central bank's open market operations & balance sheets └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-11 22:00 on a weekly timeframe a stronger future support is developing for gold within the red box it's a part of a multi-month uptrend 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-11 13:33: ┌─ you can see how accurately gold price has been respecting the trend lines and channels you've seen in my graphs for months now 😄 │ │ gold tariffs ping-pong introduced volatility, but like i wrote in my other posts - its upside price pressure │ │ a new all time-high will arrive └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-11 21:08 i wrote about how reverse repurchase agreements work and their importance in the global financial system in this thread: https://illya.sh/threads/@1751561045-2 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-11 20:32: ┌─ the US will be able to sustain their debt financing for as long as US government debt and US dollar dominate in demand │ │ for as long as USD is the reserve currency - the US can finance its debt │ │ in other words, as long as there's enough buyers and users - it's all good! 😁 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-11 20:32 the US will be able to sustain their debt financing for as long as US government debt and US dollar dominate in demand for as long as USD is the reserve currency - the US can finance its debt in other words, as long as there's enough buyers and users - it's all good! 😁 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-11 20:31: ┌─ debt includes all form, tenor and issuers of USD-denominated debt are included, both public and private │ │ examples: US Treasuries, corporate bonds, commercial bank credit, epos, FX swaps, central-bank lines └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-11 20:31 debt includes all form, tenor and issuers of USD-denominated debt are included, both public and private examples: US Treasuries, corporate bonds, commercial bank credit, epos, FX swaps, central-bank lines 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-11 20:30: ┌─ intermediation started with paper records, physical bank counters and now has mostly moved to technological - via computer systems └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-11 20:30 intermediation started with paper records, physical bank counters and now has mostly moved to technological - via computer systems 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-11 20:30: ┌─ while hybrid intermediation systems don’t strictly need to be technological - in practice they vastly are as most of financial activity happens through computer and information systems └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-11 20:30 while hybrid intermediation systems don’t strictly need to be technological - in practice they vastly are as most of financial activity happens through computer and information systems 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-11 20:29: ┌─ base money issuance and management is a responsibility of the US government - so it's always intermediated, even if by government-controlled systems └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-11 20:29 base money issuance and management is a responsibility of the US government - so it's always intermediated, even if by government-controlled systems 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-11 20:29: ┌─ hybrid intermediation systems include all means of facilitating the issuance, servicing and transactions of USD and USD-denominated securities, including equities, bonds and derivatives └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-11 20:29 hybrid intermediation systems include all means of facilitating the issuance, servicing and transactions of USD and USD-denominated securities, including equities, bonds and derivatives 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-11 20:28: ┌─ balance sheet capacity is heavily dependent on regulations (e.g. Basel III & local) │ │ hybrid intermediation systems facilitate access to the payment and credit channels │ │ SWIFT, FedWire and digital private USD claims like stablecoins & PayPal facilitate USD's movement and usage └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-11 20:28 balance sheet capacity is heavily dependent on regulations (e.g. Basel III & local) hybrid intermediation systems facilitate access to the payment and credit channels SWIFT, FedWire and digital private USD claims like stablecoins & PayPal facilitate USD's movement and usage 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-11 20:27: ┌─ liquidity means availability, thus it comes down to being able to: │ │ 1️⃣ access USD credit │ 2️⃣ settle payments in USD │ │ this means balance sheet capacity and hybrid technological intermediation systems in place └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-11 20:27 liquidity means availability, thus it comes down to being able to: 1️⃣ access USD credit 2️⃣ settle payments in USD this means balance sheet capacity and hybrid technological intermediation systems in place 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-11 20:25: ┌─ demand is created legal/regulatory environment and open market forces │ │ legal/regulatory environment includes international bilateral agreements and national laws │ │ open market forces influence the evaluation of USD against other currencies and assets └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-11 20:25 demand is created legal/regulatory environment and open market forces legal/regulatory environment includes international bilateral agreements and national laws open market forces influence the evaluation of USD against other currencies and assets 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-11 20:23: ┌─ USD is the world's reserve currency, but what does that mean? │ │ for USD to be a reserve currency it must dominate in: │ │ 1️⃣ USD-denominated credit issuance (demand) │ 2️⃣ USD use a means of settlement for payments (liquidity) │ │ this dominance must be at least relative to alternatives └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-11 20:23 USD is the world's reserve currency, but what does that mean? for USD to be a reserve currency it must dominate in: 1️⃣ USD-denominated credit issuance (demand) 2️⃣ USD use a means of settlement for payments (liquidity) this dominance must be at least relative to alternatives ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-11 19:04 gold tariffs have been cancelled - just like I wrote in my thread on Friday (link below) you can read about the gold tariffs, their impact on the market and why they were likely to get removed here 👇 https://illya.sh/threads/@1754662712-1.html ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-11 18:54 it's official: gold tariffs have been cancelled - just like I wrote last Friday 😄 in fact, rumors started less than 30 mins after i wrote the previous post in the thread - and the full removal of tariffs on gold has been confirmed just now 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-08 19:22: ┌─ gold tariffs are unlikely to stay for a long period of time │ │ expect them to be removed and/or heavily reduced soon │ │ just the fact that they happened adds longer-term upside pressure on its price │ │ of course, the markets will be volatile 😄 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-11 13:33 you can see how accurately gold price has been respecting the trend lines and channels you've seen in my graphs for months now 😄 gold tariffs ping-pong introduced volatility, but like i wrote in my other posts - its upside price pressure a new all time-high will arrive 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-08 19:59: ┌─ new all time high for gold is near 😄 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-11 13:08 it took quite a bit of Python scripting and image editing to produce this cipher profiling graph 😄 161 TLS 1.2 ciphersuites were getting profiled by C code, which was then consumed by Python to produce the bars with algorithm names all had to be aligned and readable 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-10 17:21: ┌─ converting PDF to HTML is tricky due to formatting, but I managed to produce an acceptable HTML version │ │ for highest fidelity use the PDF or Web PDF │ │ an LLM/AI Agent visiting the page should also be able to access and read the full thesis content, including HTML version └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-10 17:21 converting PDF to HTML is tricky due to formatting, but I managed to produce an acceptable HTML version for highest fidelity use the PDF or Web PDF an LLM/AI Agent visiting the page should also be able to access and read the full thesis content, including HTML version 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-10 17:15: ┌─ added Transport Layer Security for Internet of Things/TLS for IoT master thesis page │ │ i wrote this master thesis as a part of my engineering degree (MSc Software Engineering and Distributed Systems) │ │ you can read it in HTML and PDF │ │ here's the link │ 👇 │ https://illya.sh/tls-for-iot-msc-thesis/ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-10 17:15 added Transport Layer Security for Internet of Things/TLS for IoT master thesis page i wrote this master thesis as a part of my engineering degree (MSc Software Engineering and Distributed Systems) you can read it in HTML and PDF here's the link 👇 https://illya.sh/tls-for-iot-msc-thesis/ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-10 13:30 so did Russia really buy more gold? yes! despite CBR's gold reserves remaining unchanged - Russia's NWF has increased its gold reserves Russia's National Wealth Fund interoperates with the Russian Central Bank, government deficits and the broader economy 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-10 13:21: ┌─ IMF's 2024 annual report on SDDS compliance pointed out that Russia hasn't been meeting its requirements to the full extent, since they didn't disclose all of the required macro-financial data │ │ SDDS = Special Data Dissemination Standard └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-10 13:21 IMF's 2024 annual report on SDDS compliance pointed out that Russia hasn't been meeting its requirements to the full extent, since they didn't disclose all of the required macro-financial data SDDS = Special Data Dissemination Standard 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-10 13:14: ┌─ if you noticed - the IMF template reported by Russian Central Bank is missing entries │ │ so they're actually supposed to report those values (or N/A - if it doesn't apply), but since the 2022 sanctions they have concealed some of the values └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-10 13:14 if you noticed - the IMF template reported by Russian Central Bank is missing entries so they're actually supposed to report those values (or N/A - if it doesn't apply), but since the 2022 sanctions they have concealed some of the values 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-10 13:09: ┌─ IMF's guidelines mandate for the data to be either reported in Excel spreadsheet or SDMX │ │ IMF pls update the specs to require publishing in HTML - i will happily provide you with XML to HTML scripts 😄 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-10 13:09 IMF's guidelines mandate for the data to be either reported in Excel spreadsheet or SDMX IMF pls update the specs to require publishing in HTML - i will happily provide you with XML to HTML scripts 😄 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-10 13:03: ┌─ and yes, to get this data i had to download an excel file from Russian Central Bank's website. that's a norm in banks's international balance sheet reporting │ │ HTML hasn't been discovered there yet 😄 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-10 13:03 and yes, to get this data i had to download an excel file from Russian Central Bank's website. that's a norm in banks's international balance sheet reporting HTML hasn't been discovered there yet 😄 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-10 12:57: ┌─ a clarification: the table is CBR's gold holdings in USD - so the value goes up if price of gold goes up and gold stock remains at least unchanged │ │ troy ounce holdings are released in an IMF-templated PDF report, but with a lag │ │ CBR's latest data is 79.4 M troy ounces of gold └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-10 12:57 a clarification: the table is CBR's gold holdings in USD - so the value goes up if price of gold goes up and gold stock remains at least unchanged troy ounce holdings are released in an IMF-templated PDF report, but with a lag CBR's latest data is 79.4 M troy ounces of gold 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-03 17:16: ┌─ both Russia & China increased their gold holdings since I wrote this 😄 │ │ indeed - central banks are continuing to buy the gold dips └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-10 12:00 China will win the AI race, but not because they're releasing better & more efficient models and are ahead of other sovereigns in terms of practical AI infrastructure and systems. These are side-effects AI/ML is about maths - and Asia dominates in that regard ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-09 18:40 regarding the IPO/privatization of Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac i wrote a thread explaining the role, function and use during QE of those GSE also their history and how they were used to lower mortgage rates after the 2008 GFC you can read it it here ⬇️ https://illya.sh/threads/@1754148538-1.html ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-09 15:44 stablecoin issuers would get this new credit, purchase treasury bonds and increase the supply of their stablecoin a new direct line from newly issued credit into treasuries 😄 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-09 15:37: ┌─ stablecoin issuers could intermediate the issuance process, so you don't need to get all credit institutions on-chain from the start │ │ non-algorithmic stablecoin issuance already happens off-chain and presumes trust in a third party │ │ this would just be faster. more liquidity └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-09 15:37 stablecoin issuers could intermediate the issuance process, so you don't need to get all credit institutions on-chain from the start non-algorithmic stablecoin issuance already happens off-chain and presumes trust in a third party this would just be faster. more liquidity 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-09 15:30: ┌─ now imagine when credit institutions can tokenize new credit and allow automated stablecoin issuance backed by that credit │ │ in practice it's code in smart contract that wraps one token with another │ │ i created a similar project on an Ethereum hackathon ⬇️ │ https://github.com/iluxonchik/eth-lisbon-hackathon-23 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-09 15:30 now imagine when credit institutions can tokenize new credit and allow automated stablecoin issuance backed by that credit in practice it's code in smart contract that wraps one token with another i created a similar project on an Ethereum hackathon ⬇️ https://github.com/iluxonchik/eth-lisbon-hackathon-23 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-09 00:41 i wrote a thread about the rumored tariffs on gold and what that means for the gold price also what's coming next you can read the thread here ⬇️ https://illya.sh/threads/@1754662712-1.html ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-08 19:59 new all time high for gold is near 😄 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-08 19:58: ┌─ this just adds further validity towards the consolidation before further upside for gold │ │ i've shared these gold charts since the beginning, while incorporating new trends as they emerge │ │ the price action has supported this throughout. notice the strong multi-trend support └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-08 19:58 this just adds further validity towards the consolidation before further upside for gold i've shared these gold charts since the beginning, while incorporating new trends as they emerge the price action has supported this throughout. notice the strong multi-trend support 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-08 19:53: ┌─ gold tariffs put further upside pressure for gold towards a new all time high on spot │ │ this is in addition to the global monetary, geopolitical and fiscal positive price pressures │ │ a significant part of the markets will be closed for the weekend. there could be a gap on reopen └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-08 19:53 gold tariffs put further upside pressure for gold towards a new all time high on spot this is in addition to the global monetary, geopolitical and fiscal positive price pressures a significant part of the markets will be closed for the weekend. there could be a gap on reopen 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-08 19:42: ┌─ 🚀 gold futures NEW all time high above $3500 │ │ futures price is usually above spot. today's increase was caused by tariffs on gold used in COMEX & CME. i wrote a thread about that today │ │ i will keep this thread active at least until the spot price reaches a new ATH 😄 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-08 19:42 🚀 gold futures NEW all time high above $3500 futures price is usually above spot. today's increase was caused by tariffs on gold used in COMEX & CME. i wrote a thread about that today i will keep this thread active at least until the spot price reaches a new ATH 😄 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-07 21:45: ┌─ gold back to $3400 - trend lines & channels on the chart │ │ you can see where it's headed next 😄 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-08 19:22 gold tariffs are unlikely to stay for a long period of time expect them to be removed and/or heavily reduced soon just the fact that they happened adds longer-term upside pressure on its price of course, the markets will be volatile 😄 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-08 18:16: ┌─ the tariffs are not on all gold imports - just on a specific configuration - 100oz/1kg bars │ │ this alone won't skyrocket the price of gold, but it adds to the existing breakout pressure └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-08 18:16 the tariffs are not on all gold imports - just on a specific configuration - 100oz/1kg bars this alone won't skyrocket the price of gold, but it adds to the existing breakout pressure 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-08 18:12: ┌─ tariffs on gold decentivize gold imports │ │ higher import tax is a disincentive. not sure what' the benefit to having less gold come into US │ │ there's plenty of buyers in Asia who will happily take it. soon you will see more central banks expanding their balance sheets with gold └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-08 18:12 tariffs on gold decentivize gold imports higher import tax is a disincentive. not sure what' the benefit to having less gold come into US there's plenty of buyers in Asia who will happily take it. soon you will see more central banks expanding their balance sheets with gold 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-08 18:10: ┌─ when you see gold hitting a new all time high very soon - just remember that it wasn't caused by a single event │ │ gold has a growing buying pressure for monetary, geopolitical and fiscal reasons │ │ I've written about it in depth, so search through my post history if interested └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-08 18:10 when you see gold hitting a new all time high very soon - just remember that it wasn't caused by a single event gold has a growing buying pressure for monetary, geopolitical and fiscal reasons I've written about it in depth, so search through my post history if interested 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-08 18:09: ┌─ it's not only futures of course - the broader physical supply chain of gold is also affected │ │ the more imminent impact is on users of 1kg/100oz gold bars. in the future markets the effect is much more visible and quantifiable - so it will start the price movement from there └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-08 18:09 it's not only futures of course - the broader physical supply chain of gold is also affected the more imminent impact is on users of 1kg/100oz gold bars. in the future markets the effect is much more visible and quantifiable - so it will start the price movement from there 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-08 18:05: ┌─ the demand from 100oz/1kg gold bars will be shifted to its other forms - whose prices will increase │ │ this will increase gold's spot premium in the US, putting upside pressure on the global spot price └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-08 18:05 the demand from 100oz/1kg gold bars will be shifted to its other forms - whose prices will increase this will increase gold's spot premium in the US, putting upside pressure on the global spot price 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-08 18:04: ┌─ it's mostly 100oz/1kg gold bullion markers that will be affected - so you're looking at futures │ │ expect a larger basis trade (futures price higher than spot), which will eventually close down │ │ with tariffs in place spot is being pushed up towards futures └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-08 18:04 it's mostly 100oz/1kg gold bullion markers that will be affected - so you're looking at futures expect a larger basis trade (futures price higher than spot), which will eventually close down with tariffs in place spot is being pushed up towards futures 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-08 15:18: ┌─ gold tariffs means more upside price pressure │ │ US tariffs don't apply to all gold imports - only to 100 oz and 1 kg bullion bars, which are mostly used for CME/COMEX futures │ │ 400 oz London Good Delivery bars are tariff-free - those are used by dealers, central banks and ETFs └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-08 15:18 gold tariffs means more upside price pressure US tariffs don't apply to all gold imports - only to 100 oz and 1 kg bullion bars, which are mostly used for CME/COMEX futures 400 oz London Good Delivery bars are tariff-free - those are used by dealers, central banks and ETFs ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-07 21:45 gold back to $3400 - trend lines & channels on the chart you can see where it's headed next 😄 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-04 15:01: ┌─ 🚀 gold approaching $3400. $3300 was a good price for longs - like I wrote a week ago │ │ currently gold is one of the only assets where leverage entails a much lesser risk │ │ upside price pressure is coming from several points └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-07 19:58 further deprecation of USD against Ruble now back to July 4th 2025 levels 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-04 14:54: ┌─ 5 days ago I wrote that USD/RUB rate will fall. 5 days later it's down ≈2% │ │ despite oil being down - gold is up │ │ Ruble has hedge from multiple sides └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-07 12:24 8 month later after my initial post USD index is down ≈8% 📖 Quoting from 2024-12-02 16:34: ┌─ Bad news for #USD 👎 │ │ The value of a currency is a direct reflection of the organic demand for it. Sanctions will decrease the demand for US Dollar, via disincentives │ │ Plus, it's the US consumer that will be paying for the tariffs, not the BRICS countries 🤷‍♀️ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-05 22:01 Basel III defines capital, leverage, liquidity and net stable funding ratios they're in the form of formulas, and regulations require minimum thresholds to be met I previously wrote about Basel III and its importance in financial markets here ⬇️ https://illya.sh/threads/@1753631798-1.html 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-05 21:48: ┌─ banks are also subject to regulations when issuing loans │ │ and no - it's not the fractional reserve system │ │ in many sovereigns, like the USA the reserve requirements sit at 0% │ │ there are other regulatory requirements limiting loan issuance └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-05 21:48 banks are also subject to regulations when issuing loans and no - it's not the fractional reserve system in many sovereigns, like the USA the reserve requirements sit at 0% there are other regulatory requirements limiting loan issuance 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-05 21:47: ┌─ the bank has the legal right to increase the money supply AKA 'print money' │ │ so to give you a $100 loan the bank can just create those $100 and give give them to you │ │ pretty neat arrangement, huh? 😁 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-05 21:47 the bank has the legal right to increase the money supply AKA 'print money' so to give you a $100 loan the bank can just create those $100 and give give them to you pretty neat arrangement, huh? 😁 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-05 21:47: ┌─ banks are credit institutions which means they can create broad money │ │ while a non-credit institution or a regular business can issue loans - they must fund it (e.g. raise money, use excess profits) │ │ they can't just create those $100, thus expanding the monetary supply └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-05 21:47 banks are credit institutions which means they can create broad money while a non-credit institution or a regular business can issue loans - they must fund it (e.g. raise money, use excess profits) they can't just create those $100, thus expanding the monetary supply 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-05 21:46: ┌─ so the bank funds the loan by creating $100 and crediting them to your account │ │ those $100 that they credited you did not exist before - the bank created that money on demand │ │ those $100 are not physical cash - they're an entry in a digital ledger (i.e. in a computer system) └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-05 21:46 so the bank funds the loan by creating $100 and crediting them to your account those $100 that they credited you did not exist before - the bank created that money on demand those $100 are not physical cash - they're an entry in a digital ledger (i.e. in a computer system) 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-05 21:45: ┌─ a loan for the bank ends up earning more than the lent amount │ │ this is because the borrower repays the principal (loan amount) + interest └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-05 21:45 a loan for the bank ends up earning more than the lent amount this is because the borrower repays the principal (loan amount) + interest 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-05 21:44: ┌─ why is a loan an asset to the bank? │ │ because the loan earns an interest over its lifetime. this the the fixed or variable interest rate associated with the loan │ │ with time, that loan brings periodic cashflows repaying the principal and the interest └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-05 21:44 why is a loan an asset to the bank? because the loan earns an interest over its lifetime. this the the fixed or variable interest rate associated with the loan with time, that loan brings periodic cashflows repaying the principal and the interest 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-05 21:43: ┌─ deposits are liabilities to the bank - as they are owed to depositors/customers │ │ so the $100 cash loan that the bank issues to you becomes a deposit in that same bank, and thus a liability for the bank │ │ you can move those $100 outside of the bank at any time/on short notice └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-05 21:43 deposits are liabilities to the bank - as they are owed to depositors/customers so the $100 cash loan that the bank issues to you becomes a deposit in that same bank, and thus a liability for the bank you can move those $100 outside of the bank at any time/on short notice 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-05 21:41: ┌─ in the bank’s balance sheet: │ │ ⬆️ +$100 assets - the loan they just issued │ │ ⬆️ +$100 liabilities - the $100 your account was credited with │ │ your loan is an asset to the bank - and your loan itself funds the $100 deposit that you get in your account └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-05 21:41 in the bank’s balance sheet: ⬆️ +$100 assets - the loan they just issued ⬆️ +$100 liabilities - the $100 your account was credited with your loan is an asset to the bank - and your loan itself funds the $100 deposit that you get in your account 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-05 21:39: ┌─ the bank needs a liability to fund an asset │ │ when a bank gives you a loan it gains both an asset and a liability in the same amount │ │ let's say you get a loan for $100 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-05 21:39 the bank needs a liability to fund an asset when a bank gives you a loan it gains both an asset and a liability in the same amount let's say you get a loan for $100 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-05 21:38: ┌─ how banks work? bank's business model is very simple: │ │ 1️⃣ Take liability │ 2️⃣ Use liability to buy asset │ 3️⃣ Pocket the spread/carry │ │ all of the bank's assets are financed by its liabilities └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-05 21:38 how banks work? bank's business model is very simple: 1️⃣ Take liability 2️⃣ Use liability to buy asset 3️⃣ Pocket the spread/carry all of the bank's assets are financed by its liabilities ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-05 20:05 updated Illya's Threads url to https://illya.sh/threads/ now it gets it own subdirectory - so the URLs are shorter and it's more modular to manage the sitemaps this way later I'll also add an RSS feed for threads, just like the one for thoughts at https://illya.sh/thoughts/feed.xml 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-05 01:05: ┌─ ask ChatGPT what are the latest Illya's Threads and it will tell you 😄 │ │ should also work with Grok, Claude, Gemini and any other agentic AI with web access │ │ this is again JSON-LD magic - LLMs seem to love it │ │ i only added threads a few hours ago - it's already indexed & working └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-05 01:05 ask ChatGPT what are the latest Illya's Threads and it will tell you 😄 should also work with Grok, Claude, Gemini and any other agentic AI with web access this is again JSON-LD magic - LLMs seem to love it i only added threads a few hours ago - it's already indexed & working 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-04 23:08: ┌─ here's how the thread reading experience looks like │ │ the aim is clean article view - with timestamps as visual separators between posts/thoughts │ │ if you click on the timestamp it takes you to the individual post/thoughts └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-04 23:08 here's how the thread reading experience looks like the aim is clean article view - with timestamps as visual separators between posts/thoughts if you click on the timestamp it takes you to the individual post/thoughts 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-04 20:44: ┌─ Illya's Thought Threads is available under https://illya.sh/threads/ │ │ there you can access them in a nice reader view │ │ order is most recently updated first - so a fresh addition to a thread bumps it up in the timeline of threads └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-04 20:44 Illya's Thought Threads is available under https://illya.sh/threads/ there you can access them in a nice reader view order is most recently updated first - so a fresh addition to a thread bumps it up in the timeline of threads 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-04 20:43: ┌─ this isn’t how you usually write threads on X - where it’s more common to do it via nested replies │ │ I don’t want to fix my use-case to X’s rules, but also want to provide an intuitive reading experience └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-04 20:43 this isn’t how you usually write threads on X - where it’s more common to do it via nested replies I don’t want to fix my use-case to X’s rules, but also want to provide an intuitive reading experience 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-04 20:43: ┌─ the way I do it is by quoting the logically connected post, thus forming a chain of related posts │ │ if you build a DAG with temporal order & display posts from oldest to newest you get a thread of posts, forming a small article └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-04 20:43 the way I do it is by quoting the logically connected post, thus forming a chain of related posts if you build a DAG with temporal order & display posts from oldest to newest you get a thread of posts, forming a small article 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-04 20:42: ┌─ so everything that I post on other social media, like X/Twitter also gets posted to my microblog at https://illya.sh/thoughts/ │ │ frequently an idea evolves into a series of posts - a thread/small article └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-04 20:42 so everything that I post on other social media, like X/Twitter also gets posted to my microblog at https://illya.sh/thoughts/ frequently an idea evolves into a series of posts - a thread/small article 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-04 20:40: ┌─ 🚀 added threads to my posts/thoughts & now you can read them as articles │ │ the static microblog now generates a series of quoted posts as threads, where posts are displayed from oldest to newest └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-04 20:40 🚀 added threads to my posts/thoughts & now you can read them as articles the static microblog now generates a series of quoted posts as threads, where posts are displayed from oldest to newest ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-04 18:28 Bitcoin is still in a weekly uptrend it must either go up or down to ≈$109500 - a strong weekly support two factors in play here: 1️⃣ USD index - inverse correlation 2️⃣ Global liquidity- correlation keep watching central bank's open market operations & balance sheets ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-04 15:01 🚀 gold approaching $3400. $3300 was a good price for longs - like I wrote a week ago currently gold is one of the only assets where leverage entails a much lesser risk upside price pressure is coming from several points 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-01 21:45: ┌─ gold price is back up to its price 2 weeks ago │ │ so it indeed was a good idea to long it at the pullback └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-04 14:54 5 days ago I wrote that USD/RUB rate will fall. 5 days later it's down ≈2% despite oil being down - gold is up Ruble has hedge from multiple sides 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-01 18:14: ┌─ if you've read my previous posts you know that gold is ≈36% of Russia's international reserves │ │ this is taken straight from the Bank of Russia's balance sheet statement │ │ 100% of it is stored in Russia, thus no counterparty risk │ │ critical component of Ruble's strength └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-03 18:42 🇨🇳 China's gold holdings are at their highest level in 43 years gold is now 6% of PBoC international reserves. but that's still below the world average of ≈14%. expect that gap to continue to shorten further see my drawings on this nice chart spanning over 47 years i found ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-03 17:16 both Russia & China increased their gold holdings since I wrote this 😄 indeed - central banks are continuing to buy the gold dips 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-26 15:52: ┌─ central banks will continue to buy gold │ │ you'll be able to confirm that in their upcoming balance sheets reports. pay special attention to China & Russia │ │ enjoy the dip, because smart money is! └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-03 17:06 China sold US treasuries and bought gold - just like I wrote over 3 months ago gold now accounts for ≈6% of PBoC international reserves, while US treasury holdings are ≈40% from their peak in 2013 off-ramp from USD debt to alternative assets continues its progress 📖 Quoting from 2025-04-23 12:02: ┌─ 🇨🇳China has been increasing their gold reserves YTD │ │ Gold price keeps going up - major central banks continue to load up │ │ Gold is a hedge against USD. Tariffs are a medium of USD weaponization │ │ 👉 Expect US securities sell-off for gold by People's Bank of China └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-03 16:28 the 70% USD dominance here is as calculated by the Fed across the chosen 5 chosen buckets - with the end result being a weighted composite measure so don't read this as a literal 70% of all cross-border transactions 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-03 16:24: ┌─ 🇺🇸 USD dominance is alluring, accounting for ≈70% of currency usage worldwide │ │ even countries that do relatively little trade with US have most of their transactions done in US dollars │ │ ex: 🇮🇳 India invoices 86% of its exports in USD, while only 15% of its exports being to US └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-03 16:24 🇺🇸 USD dominance is alluring, accounting for ≈70% of currency usage worldwide even countries that do relatively little trade with US have most of their transactions done in US dollars ex: 🇮🇳 India invoices 86% of its exports in USD, while only 15% of its exports being to US ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-02 17:39 legally mortgage backed securities are bonds since they are tradable debt securities but they're not a plain bond, due to the option of borrower's early repayment Macaulay or modified duration used for Treasuries doesn't work - you need effective/option-adjusted duration 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-02 17:33: ┌─ the duration formula for MBS assumes for some pre-payments │ │ if those happen at a smaller rate - the duration increases └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-02 17:33 the duration formula for MBS assumes for some pre-payments if those happen at a smaller rate - the duration increases 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-02 17:28: ┌─ raising yields means lower incentives to re-finance mortgages which reduces the amount of pre-payments │ │ thus, the duration increases when yields are raising - so even a higher price decrease └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-02 17:28 raising yields means lower incentives to re-finance mortgages which reduces the amount of pre-payments thus, the duration increases when yields are raising - so even a higher price decrease 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-02 17:19: ┌─ optionality/convexity premium in mortgage backed securities is interesting │ │ when market yields fall the price should rise, but since borrowers take advantage of lower mortgage rates to make early payments - the price does not raise as much, due to lowered duration └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-02 17:19 optionality/convexity premium in mortgage backed securities is interesting when market yields fall the price should rise, but since borrowers take advantage of lower mortgage rates to make early payments - the price does not raise as much, due to lowered duration 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-02 17:00: ┌─ Fed's balance sheet expansion with agency MBS reduced risks in liquidity, market depth and optionality/convexity │ │ this is a crucial point to understand - it wasn't just the Fed buying agency MBS, but the explicit government guarantee that accompanied it │ │ thus, the yields fell └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-02 17:00 Fed's balance sheet expansion with agency MBS reduced risks in liquidity, market depth and optionality/convexity this is a crucial point to understand - it wasn't just the Fed buying agency MBS, but the explicit government guarantee that accompanied it thus, the yields fell 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-02 16:52: ┌─ Ginnie & Fannie Mae conservatorship in Sept 2008 made agency MBS default risk free │ │ essentially, the US Treasury covers all losses from GNMA and FNMA up to $200 billion each │ │ from the total $400B budget ≈$170B are still available │ │ once exhausted it will surely be increased └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-02 16:52 Ginnie & Fannie Mae conservatorship in Sept 2008 made agency MBS default risk free essentially, the US Treasury covers all losses from GNMA and FNMA up to $200 billion each from the total $400B budget ≈$170B are still available once exhausted it will surely be increased 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-02 16:28: ┌─ to lower the mortgage rates the Fed can purchase agency MBS - likely they did in QE 1 2008 │ │ buying mortgage backed securities raises their price and provides liquidity for dealers. this directly pushes down the yields │ │ expect some MBS QE to come in the near future └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-02 16:28 to lower the mortgage rates the Fed can purchase agency MBS - likely they did in QE 1 2008 buying mortgage backed securities raises their price and provides liquidity for dealers. this directly pushes down the yields expect some MBS QE to come in the near future ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-02 00:59 gold hasn't broken the weekly uptrend - note the higher highs buying pressure today pushed the price up ≈2.5% TA is an excellent tool to gauge the price action 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-01 21:45: ┌─ gold price is back up to its price 2 weeks ago │ │ so it indeed was a good idea to long it at the pullback └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-01 21:45 gold price is back up to its price 2 weeks ago so it indeed was a good idea to long it at the pullback 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-28 15:41: ┌─ consider this gold pullback as a free gift to further extend your long position 🥳 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-01 18:14 if you've read my previous posts you know that gold is ≈36% of Russia's international reserves this is taken straight from the Bank of Russia's balance sheet statement 100% of it is stored in Russia, thus no counterparty risk critical component of Ruble's strength 📖 Quoting from 2025-08-01 17:58: ┌─ 🇺🇸🇷🇺 USD/RUB rate already fell to July 24th close, below 80 │ │ although it's also important to note that there are several factors at play - USD index is also down today │ │ despite oil down - gold is up. this is about the monetary policy of Russia and their balance sheet structure └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-08-01 17:58 🇺🇸🇷🇺 USD/RUB rate already fell to July 24th close, below 80 although it's also important to note that there are several factors at play - USD index is also down today despite oil down - gold is up. this is about the monetary policy of Russia and their balance sheet structure 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-29 21:34: ┌─ 🇷🇺 oil up is GOOD news for Russia & Ruble │ │ every surplus above $60/barrel of Urals oil increases FX reserves in NWF (Yuan or gold) - an interplay between MoF and CBR │ │ exporters pay taxes in Ruble - so higher buying pressure │ │ mark my words: │ 👉 you'll see USD/RUB exchange rate fall └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 11:06 and this is how the Federal Reserve steers the federal funds rate/interest rates in the market within the target range 🏦✨ follow the quoted posts to read the full thread/article 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 10:43: ┌─ together, ON RRP, IORB, Discount Rate and SRF create a corridor for rates, which stay within the target 4.25%-4.50% │ │ 👉 by "firms" i mean select non-bank financial institutions - think dealers, market makers & other wholesale debt institutions └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 10:43 together, ON RRP, IORB, Discount Rate and SRF create a corridor for rates, which stay within the target 4.25%-4.50% 👉 by "firms" i mean select non-bank financial institutions - think dealers, market makers & other wholesale debt institutions 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 10:40: ┌─ current rates set by FED: │ │ 1️⃣ ON RRP - 4.25% (floor) - firms won't lend below │ 2️⃣ IORB - 4.40% (supplementary floor) - banks won't lend below │ 3️⃣ Discount Rate - 4.50% (ceiling) - banks won't borrow above │ 4️⃣ SRF - 4.50% (supplementary ceiling) - banks & firms won't borrow above └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 10:40 current rates set by FED: 1️⃣ ON RRP - 4.25% (floor) - firms won't lend below 2️⃣ IORB - 4.40% (supplementary floor) - banks won't lend below 3️⃣ Discount Rate - 4.50% (ceiling) - banks won't borrow above 4️⃣ SRF - 4.50% (supplementary ceiling) - banks & firms won't borrow above 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 10:38: ┌─ so how does the FED currently targets an interest rate range between 4.25%-4.50%? │ │ let's consolidate everything with an example using current, real-world data └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 10:38 so how does the FED currently targets an interest rate range between 4.25%-4.50%? let's consolidate everything with an example using current, real-world data 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 10:36: ┌─ SRF has been introduced in 2021, due to occasional spikes of short-term funding rates outside of the corridor │ │ this is because banks avoid using the discount rate - as that is often seen as a sign of financial distress by the broader market └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 10:36 SRF has been introduced in 2021, due to occasional spikes of short-term funding rates outside of the corridor this is because banks avoid using the discount rate - as that is often seen as a sign of financial distress by the broader market 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 10:34: ┌─ thus, Standing Repo Facility (SRF) further reinforces the upper part of the target interest rate corridor │ │ in other words, it strengthens the cap on short-term interest rates └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 10:34 thus, Standing Repo Facility (SRF) further reinforces the upper part of the target interest rate corridor in other words, it strengthens the cap on short-term interest rates 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 10:32: ┌─ Standing Repo Facility (SRF) allows banks & other financial institutions to do collateral-backed loans from the FED overnight │ │ the institution provides high quality collateral (e.g. treasury bond) and gets a loan against it - at the set rate └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 10:32 Standing Repo Facility (SRF) allows banks & other financial institutions to do collateral-backed loans from the FED overnight the institution provides high quality collateral (e.g. treasury bond) and gets a loan against it - at the set rate 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 10:30: ┌─ it't called discount window for historical reasons │ │ discounting means buying treasuries at a slightly lower price - i.e. at a discount │ │ window comes from the fact that these were sold at counter/teller windows at the bank └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 10:30 it't called discount window for historical reasons discounting means buying treasuries at a slightly lower price - i.e. at a discount window comes from the fact that these were sold at counter/teller windows at the bank 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 10:30: ┌─ the discount rate is set higher or at the typical market rates to disincentivize its use │ │ it's really meant to serve as an emergency lending source - only when other financing routes are exhausted: regular interbank markets, wholesale markets and SRF among others └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 10:30 the discount rate is set higher or at the typical market rates to disincentivize its use it's really meant to serve as an emergency lending source - only when other financing routes are exhausted: regular interbank markets, wholesale markets and SRF among others 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 10:28: ┌─ Discount Rate is the rate at which the FED lends directly to banks through its discount window │ │ think of it as an emergency lending facility which the banks can use whenever they need funds │ │ since banks can always get a loan at that rate - it caps the short-term interest rates └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 10:28 Discount Rate is the rate at which the FED lends directly to banks through its discount window think of it as an emergency lending facility which the banks can use whenever they need funds since banks can always get a loan at that rate - it caps the short-term interest rates 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 10:27: ┌─ the majority of liquidity is actually created in wholesale short-term debt markets │ │ ON RRP addresses exactly that sector, thus setting the lower bound of the target interest rate corridor for the broader financial sector └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 10:27 the majority of liquidity is actually created in wholesale short-term debt markets ON RRP addresses exactly that sector, thus setting the lower bound of the target interest rate corridor for the broader financial sector 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 10:26: ┌─ ON RRP further reinforces the the floor for the market-wide interest rates │ │ since it's accessible to a broader set of financial institutions - not only banks. those now also have little incentive to lend below the ON RRP rate └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 10:26 ON RRP further reinforces the the floor for the market-wide interest rates since it's accessible to a broader set of financial institutions - not only banks. those now also have little incentive to lend below the ON RRP rate 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 10:11: ┌─ Overnight Reverse Repo Rate (ON RRP) defines the rate at financial institutions can lend money overnight to the FED │ │ in return the FED provides treasury bonds as a collateral │ │ ON RRP is accessible to both banks & non-banks (e.g. money market funds) └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 10:11 Overnight Reverse Repo Rate (ON RRP) defines the rate at financial institutions can lend money overnight to the FED in return the FED provides treasury bonds as a collateral ON RRP is accessible to both banks & non-banks (e.g. money market funds) 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 10:10: ┌─ since banks can always deposit cash into their reserve account account at the FED and earn the IORB rate they have little incentive to lend at rates below IORB │ │ effectively, this sets the floor (lower bound of the corridor) for interest rates for banks └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 10:10 since banks can always deposit cash into their reserve account account at the FED and earn the IORB rate they have little incentive to lend at rates below IORB effectively, this sets the floor (lower bound of the corridor) for interest rates for banks 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 10:09: ┌─ Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) is the rate FED pays banks on their excess reserves │ │ commercial banks have reserve accounts at the FED. regulations define the minimum amounts - any excess earns the IORB interest rate set by the FED └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 10:09 Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) is the rate FED pays banks on their excess reserves commercial banks have reserve accounts at the FED. regulations define the minimum amounts - any excess earns the IORB interest rate set by the FED 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 10:08: ┌─ the 4 key interest rates set by the FED are: │ │ 1️⃣ Overnight Reverse Repo Rate (ON RRP) │ 2️⃣ Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) │ 3️⃣ Discount Rate - also known as Lending Rate │ 4️⃣ Standing Repo Facility (SRF) │ │ we'll cover them in this order below └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 10:08 the 4 key interest rates set by the FED are: 1️⃣ Overnight Reverse Repo Rate (ON RRP) 2️⃣ Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) 3️⃣ Discount Rate - also known as Lending Rate 4️⃣ Standing Repo Facility (SRF) we'll cover them in this order below 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 10:05: ┌─ now let's understand each one of the 4 key rates set by the federal reserve to keep the market rates within the target range │ │ namely, what each one of those rates represents and how together they act as ceiling or floor for the interest rate corridor └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 10:05 now let's understand each one of the 4 key rates set by the federal reserve to keep the market rates within the target range namely, what each one of those rates represents and how together they act as ceiling or floor for the interest rate corridor 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 09:59: ┌─ so when banks and other financial institutions need to lend capital - they can do it at a rate within the target range │ │ of course, their balance sheet capacity must allow for that - but that's another topic which I already covered in some detail in my other posts😁 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 09:59 so when banks and other financial institutions need to lend capital - they can do it at a rate within the target range of course, their balance sheet capacity must allow for that - but that's another topic which I already covered in some detail in my other posts😁 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 09:58: ┌─ now you should have a clear mental model of how the Federal Reserve sets the interest rates in the market │ │ a target range is defined, and then several different interest rates are set explicitly to steer the real interest rate into that target range └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 09:58 now you should have a clear mental model of how the Federal Reserve sets the interest rates in the market a target range is defined, and then several different interest rates are set explicitly to steer the real interest rate into that target range 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 09:56: ┌─ think of these 4 rates as defining a corridor with an upper and a lower bound - currently 4.25% and 4.50% │ │ the average market interest rate will sit somewhere in between └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 09:56 think of these 4 rates as defining a corridor with an upper and a lower bound - currently 4.25% and 4.50% the average market interest rate will sit somewhere in between 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 09:55: ┌─ in the Federal Open Market Committee Meetings (FOMC), the Federal Reserve sets a target range - currently 4.25%–4.50%, and then it uses the ON RRP, IORB, discount rate and SRF to steer the average rate in the market └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 09:55 in the Federal Open Market Committee Meetings (FOMC), the Federal Reserve sets a target range - currently 4.25%–4.50%, and then it uses the ON RRP, IORB, discount rate and SRF to steer the average rate in the market 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 09:53: ┌─ the rates define the interest rate corridor in the following manner: │ │ 1️⃣ Overnight Reverse Repo Rate - floor │ 2️⃣ Interest on Reserve Balances - supplementary floor │ 3️⃣ Discount Rate - ceiling │ 4️⃣ Standing Repo Facility - supplementary ceiling └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 09:53 the rates define the interest rate corridor in the following manner: 1️⃣ Overnight Reverse Repo Rate - floor 2️⃣ Interest on Reserve Balances - supplementary floor 3️⃣ Discount Rate - ceiling 4️⃣ Standing Repo Facility - supplementary ceiling 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 09:51: ┌─ together, ON RRP, IORB, discount rate and SRF define an interest rate corridor, composed by: │ │ 1️⃣ lower bound (floor) - the lowest possible interest rate │ 2️⃣ upper bound (ceiling) - the highest possible interest rate │ │ the other market rates fluctuate between this floor and ceiling └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 09:51 together, ON RRP, IORB, discount rate and SRF define an interest rate corridor, composed by: 1️⃣ lower bound (floor) - the lowest possible interest rate 2️⃣ upper bound (ceiling) - the highest possible interest rate the other market rates fluctuate between this floor and ceiling 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 09:50: ┌─ the FED sets a target interest rate range and 4 main explicit interest rates: │ │ 1️⃣ Overnight Reverse Repo Rate (ON RRP) │ 2️⃣ Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) │ 3️⃣ Discount Rate - also known as Lending Rate │ 4️⃣ Standing Repo Facility (SRF) │ │ more on them later (keep reading 😁) └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 09:50 the FED sets a target interest rate range and 4 main explicit interest rates: 1️⃣ Overnight Reverse Repo Rate (ON RRP) 2️⃣ Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) 3️⃣ Discount Rate - also known as Lending Rate 4️⃣ Standing Repo Facility (SRF) more on them later (keep reading 😁) 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 09:48: ┌─ the federal reserve does not set a single interest rate │ │ instead, the FED sets a target interest rate range (the federal funds target range) alongside 4 main explicit interest rates └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 09:48 the federal reserve does not set a single interest rate instead, the FED sets a target interest rate range (the federal funds target range) alongside 4 main explicit interest rates 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 09:40: ┌─ how can the FED even set market-wide rates? 🤔 │ │ after all - there is no single rate that the whole market unanimously uses │ │ different types of lending have different rates in the market, as it's a (somewhat) open market └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 09:40 how can the FED even set market-wide rates? 🤔 after all - there is no single rate that the whole market unanimously uses different types of lending have different rates in the market, as it's a (somewhat) open market 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 09:39: ┌─ How Does the Federal Reserve Set Interest Rates? │ │ some think that they define a single rate - namely the overnight lending rate - i.e. the rate at which the banks lend to each other overnight │ │ but that's not the case ❌ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 09:39 How Does the Federal Reserve Set Interest Rates? some think that they define a single rate - namely the overnight lending rate - i.e. the rate at which the banks lend to each other overnight but that's not the case ❌ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 09:38 i'll be explaining the details of how the Federal Reserve achieves their fed funds target rate in the next posts i'll be quoting them in sequence - so you can follow the trail of quoted posts and read them like a thread/article starting with the next post. let's dive in! 🚀 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-31 09:35: ┌─ the FED left the interest rates unchanged - at the 4.25%-4.50% target │ │ while they communicated that previously - so it's no surprise - understanding how they achieve that level of short-term rates means understanding the important central bank in the world 🏦 │ │ so i'll explain it! └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-31 09:35 the FED left the interest rates unchanged - at the 4.25%-4.50% target while they communicated that previously - so it's no surprise - understanding how they achieve that level of short-term rates means understanding the important central bank in the world 🏦 so i'll explain it! ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-30 18:48 if you can actually take a loan of €10m - just get a bunch of properties in Portugal (I see the flag 🇵🇹😄) and rent them out you'll be able to comfortably get ≈50 properties - yielding you around €50K MRR plus all of the equity and appreciation that you're earning ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-30 18:40 🇺🇸🇮🇳 US imports for India account for mere 2.7% of its total imports - only $87 billion you can see how selective and small the tariff applications are - and even those will eventually be dropped nothing about China 🇨🇳 👀 fully consistent with what I wrote 2 weeks ago 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-14 18:43: ┌─ i understand that these are secondary tariffs, but there is a grand total of 0% chance of that going in action for any substancial amount of time │ │ 🇨🇳 China is Russia's main trading partner. do you really think the US economy can sustain 100% tariffs on their main import source? └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-30 18:28 🚨🛢️aaand crude oil is trading above $70 told you over a month ago that more upside is to come 😉 NOTE: it's up ≈8% over the past 5 days while the US dollar index is up over 2% - so it's more in real terms scroll back to my June posts to know what's coming next 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-16 13:41: ┌─ 'The market is never wrong' │ │ A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything & prices accordingly - even before the official news │ │ Okay. │ │ Now wait & watch crude oil & gold raise up even more in price very soon │ │ This isn't a joke └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-30 10:09 don't learn to code - there is AI don't learn to drive - there is AI don't learn to read - there is AI don't learn to write - there is AI don't learn to speak - there is AI … don't learn - there is AI follow me for more terrible advice 😂 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-29 21:34 🇷🇺 oil up is GOOD news for Russia & Ruble every surplus above $60/barrel of Urals oil increases FX reserves in NWF (Yuan or gold) - an interplay between MoF and CBR exporters pay taxes in Ruble - so higher buying pressure mark my words: 👉 you'll see USD/RUB exchange rate fall 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-29 20:39: ┌─ 🚨🛢️ crude oil up to almost $70 │ │ and this while the US dollar index is also up │ │ over a month and a half ago I told you that it's going to resume the uptrend - and this thesis has been confirmed again and again │ │ wait & watch what comes next - I wrote about that as well 😁 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-29 20:39 🚨🛢️ crude oil up to almost $70 and this while the US dollar index is also up over a month and a half ago I told you that it's going to resume the uptrend - and this thesis has been confirmed again and again wait & watch what comes next - I wrote about that as well 😁 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-13 17:51: ┌─ 🛢️ crude oil price is heading back up - just like I wrote earlier │ │ significant geopolitical events introduce volatility - but my thesis on increasing oil, gold & other precious metals + commodities has little to do with that │ │ 👉 it's about global liquidity flows & bond markets └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-29 12:21 you can imagine how much I'm excited to read this chapter 🤩 Michael Howell (@crossbordercap) really cooked with this one 🔥 highly technical, quantitative and focused on data interpretation, not politics (not sure about copyright so blurred the image) ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-29 11:35 Trump administration is China's best friend 🇺🇸❤️🇨🇳 not only China gets to accumulate gold, attract global market share, but also massively benefit from the crypto bubble China has HUGE exposure (and control) to Bitcoin. US does the work, while China benefits. sounds familiar🤷‍♀️ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-29 11:28 🇷🇺 3 months of Ruble gains against USD erased in 5 days 😄 but also contextualize it with the overall increase in the US Dollar Index over the past 2 days 👋 hello, volatility 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-28 21:46: ┌─ 3 days ago the Russian Central Bank cut down the key interest rate by 200bp down to 18% │ │ the only way from here is further down - and if you look at the Russian bond yields that's exactly what they're telling │ │ but honestly you don't need advanced quant to reach this conclusion 😂 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-29 11:13 🚨 this doesn't mean that you shouldn't invest into US stocks or that you can't make money there yes, it's a bubble - but that's the state of the global financial system. some areas are less of a bubble than others also, US economy won't crash overnight like many predict here 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-29 10:42: ┌─ 🇨🇳 i guess the "China just steals western technologies" theory goes down the drain 🥱 │ │ 👉 notice how there are no billion-dollar valuations on mere promises │ │ that's something important that people need to understand about US equity markets - most valuations are fictitious └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-29 10:42 🇨🇳 i guess the "China just steals western technologies" theory goes down the drain 🥱 👉 notice how there are no billion-dollar valuations on mere promises that's something important that people need to understand about US equity markets - most valuations are fictitious ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-29 08:48 🇪🇺 in the EU, Bitcoin still hasn't reached a new all time high but a little bit more depreciation of EUR against USD can finally bring the FIAT party to the Europeans as well 😂 although in these cases being late to the party is better ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-28 21:54 🇷🇺 Bank of Russia explicitly states 12-13% as the average target key interest rate for 2026 and that's exactly what the bond market is pricing in that's what i mean by this not requiring advanced quantitative or technical analysis 😄 multiple factors in play 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-28 21:46: ┌─ 3 days ago the Russian Central Bank cut down the key interest rate by 200bp down to 18% │ │ the only way from here is further down - and if you look at the Russian bond yields that's exactly what they're telling │ │ but honestly you don't need advanced quant to reach this conclusion 😂 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-28 21:46 3 days ago the Russian Central Bank cut down the key interest rate by 200bp down to 18% the only way from here is further down - and if you look at the Russian bond yields that's exactly what they're telling but honestly you don't need advanced quant to reach this conclusion 😂 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-15 09:52: ┌─ 🇷🇺 and indeed Bank of Russia cuts interest rates down to 20% │ │ 3 months ago I wrote about how the Russian bond market was pricing in those cuts │ │ a month ago the prediction materialized ✅ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-28 21:42 🇷🇺 Russian 3Y bond yield is down ≈20% over the last 3 months 😳 of course - this isn't a surprise to you if you've been following my posts. i wrote extensively about this the biggest reason behind the sharp drop today is the recent 200bp key interest rate cut down to 18% 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-14 13:12: ┌─ not all bonds are the same 🇺🇸🇯🇵🇪🇺🇷🇺 │ │ while US, EU & Japan yields are soaring 📈 │ │ Russian bond yields are falling 📉 │ │ 🇷🇺 10Y bond yield down 8% since March │ │ just like i wrote more than 3 months ago │ │ check my posts for a detailed expiation & what's coming next │ │ 👇 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-28 19:17 btw the gold depreciation today is due to the appreciation of USD 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-28 15:41: ┌─ consider this gold pullback as a free gift to further extend your long position 🥳 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-28 18:17 when your favorite altcoin goes up in price soon remember one thing: 👉 it likely has to do more with liquidity flows than an increase in the inherent value of your preferred project rule of thumb: if everything is systemically up - it's liquidity flows 😄 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-28 15:41 consider this gold pullback as a free gift to further extend your long position 🥳 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-17 12:54: ┌─ gold is currently the only asset whose leveraged long position can be hedged by adding more to the long on pullbacks 😄 │ │ * one of the only - and ofc technically that's not a hedge - but you can read my previous posts to understand what I mean │ │ substance over matter 😉 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-28 10:40 👉 Digital Money ≠ E-Money 👈 🏦 Digital Money - claim on central bank money recorded on a public ledger. A form of public money. No credit risk. Think CBDC 💳 E-Money - claim on commercial bank money. A form of private money. Has credit risk. Think PayPal balance ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-27 19:05 balance sheet capacity is defined by regulations in a world dominated by debt refinancing rather than new credit issuance - the ability to take on more assets and liabilities is more important than interest rates 👉 debt rollover capacity is more important than cost of capital 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-27 17:19: ┌─ NOTE: Basel III is legally non-binding │ │ so for a step 2 you'd want to look into the transposed legislations │ │ 🇪🇺 EU: Capital Requirements Regulation & Capital Requirements Directive │ │ 🇺🇸 USA: split throughout Code of Federal Regulations │ │ (just ask ChatGPT/LLM & read from there 😄) └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-27 18:29 🇺🇸🤝🇨🇳 US/China tariffs paused for another 90 days if you read my post from two weeks ago - this isn't a surprise to you once again - the US is dependent on China financially, economically & infrastructurally threats of 100% tariffs against Russia will NOT materialize 🇷🇺 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-14 18:43: ┌─ i understand that these are secondary tariffs, but there is a grand total of 0% chance of that going in action for any substancial amount of time │ │ 🇨🇳 China is Russia's main trading partner. do you really think the US economy can sustain 100% tariffs on their main import source? └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-27 17:19 NOTE: Basel III is legally non-binding so for a step 2 you'd want to look into the transposed legislations 🇪🇺 EU: Capital Requirements Regulation & Capital Requirements Directive 🇺🇸 USA: split throughout Code of Federal Regulations (just ask ChatGPT/LLM & read from there 😄) 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-27 17:12: ┌─ start by asking ChatGPT or another LLM with the Basel III PDF(s) attached │ │ read from there, iterate with questions and validate your understanding │ │ you'll probably need to come back to it a few times │ │ don't overthink it, a basic prompt like this one is sufficient │ │ 👇 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-27 17:12 start by asking ChatGPT or another LLM with the Basel III PDF(s) attached read from there, iterate with questions and validate your understanding you'll probably need to come back to it a few times don't overthink it, a basic prompt like this one is sufficient 👇 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-27 16:56: ┌─ regulations may sound boring - but they're crucial to understand money, liquidity and financial system as a whole │ │ they become fun once contextualized - and govern the rules of credit │ │ i'd suggest starting with Basel III - namely liquidity coverage ratio & capital ratio └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-27 16:56 regulations may sound boring - but they're crucial to understand money, liquidity and financial system as a whole they become fun once contextualized - and govern the rules of credit i'd suggest starting with Basel III - namely liquidity coverage ratio & capital ratio ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-20 09:40 🚀 and indeed the crypto cap increased even more now, await for a solid $4 Trillion it's almost like it's correlated with global liquidity flows - or perhaps I'm just really good at guessing 😳 i wrote a lot about this in the past - so read up for details if inerested! 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-13 16:42: ┌─ 🚀 crypto inflows materialized as expected │ │ but wait - it's not over yet │ │ more upside to come 👀📈 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-20 09:33 yes - US, China, EU & others will print a lot more as well 😄 that BTC was seized as a part of criminal proceedings. German Code of Criminal Procedure (111p), allows such sales if there's a risk of significant value loss crypto is extremely volatile & 0.1% insignificant 🤷‍♀️ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-20 09:11 the idea is that the more effort it takes to understand something - the more deeply you address your real knowledge gaps, thus the more value you get as for the back-and-forth interactions i mostly just dictate my question - as ambiguous or as imprecise it may be 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-20 08:58: ┌─ 📚chatgpt ratio is great a book quality metric in post-LLM era │ │ this is how I value the quality of the books that I read. the more time i spend querying LLMs - the more valuable the book is │ │ sometimes i spend over an hour to absorb a paragraph - that's how i know it's a goldmine └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-20 08:58 📚chatgpt ratio is great a book quality metric in post-LLM era this is how I value the quality of the books that I read. the more time i spend querying LLMs - the more valuable the book is sometimes i spend over an hour to absorb a paragraph - that's how i know it's a goldmine ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-20 08:52 💧a liquid asset is one with low credit and duration risk but the duration of the assets should be compared to the duration of the liabilities - assets are funded by liabilities + equity duration of assets & liabilities should be as close as possible to minimize duration risk ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-18 11:04 not all money (credit) is the same there's a quality dimension to it as well credit issued by a central bank is higher quality than the one issued by commercial banks - no credit risk central bank money is an unambiguous means of settlement for debt - think of legal tender ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-17 12:54 gold is currently the only asset whose leveraged long position can be hedged by adding more to the long on pullbacks 😄 * one of the only - and ofc technically that's not a hedge - but you can read my previous posts to understand what I mean substance over matter 😉 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-12 15:37: ┌─ 🚀 you can already feel a new ATH for gold │ │ the loading screen is at 96% │ │ [🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩⬛] 96% │ │ and it won't stop there │ │ price action is showing immaculate breakout vibes 🤩⬇️ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-15 16:09 🇺🇸😳 30Y US bond yield above 5% 📖 Quoting from 2025-05-02 16:20: ┌─ WOW │ │ US 10 Year bond yields are up 2.24% today └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-15 09:52 🇷🇺 and indeed Bank of Russia cuts interest rates down to 20% 3 months ago I wrote about how the Russian bond market was pricing in those cuts a month ago the prediction materialized ✅ 📖 Quoting from 2025-04-21 15:15: ┌─ 🇷🇺 Russian Central Bank key interest rate is at 21% │ │ 3Y Russian Federation bonds are at ≈16.5% yield │ │ The market is pricing in upcoming rate cuts │ │ @AskPerplexity and @grok will tell you that Ruble & Russian economy are in a bad state. The reality is different └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-14 18:43 i understand that these are secondary tariffs, but there is a grand total of 0% chance of that going in action for any substancial amount of time 🇨🇳 China is Russia's main trading partner. do you really think the US economy can sustain 100% tariffs on their main import source? 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-14 18:29: ┌─ a reminder that Russia doesn't trade with USA anymore 🇺🇸🤝🇷🇺 │ │ so it's not clear what 100% or 9999% tariffs on Russia will achieve │ │ Russia's been offloading US securities for gold since 2018 │ │ Russia's exports to the US are less than 1% of the total └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-14 18:29 a reminder that Russia doesn't trade with USA anymore 🇺🇸🤝🇷🇺 so it's not clear what 100% or 9999% tariffs on Russia will achieve Russia's been offloading US securities for gold since 2018 Russia's exports to the US are less than 1% of the total 📖 Quoting from 2025-04-08 12:02: ┌─ 🇷🇺 Russia is immune to US tariffs │ │ Russia's international reserves are as follows: │ - 0.007% US Treasury bonds │ - 35% Gold │ │ Russia exports <1% to the US. Russia is a net exporter │ │ This makes them protected from US sovereign risk (USD devaluation) & trade risk └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-14 13:12 not all bonds are the same 🇺🇸🇯🇵🇪🇺🇷🇺 while US, EU & Japan yields are soaring 📈 Russian bond yields are falling 📉 🇷🇺 10Y bond yield down 8% since March just like i wrote more than 3 months ago check my posts for a detailed expiation & what's coming next 👇 📖 Quoting from 2025-04-10 23:37: ┌─ Ruble is a gold success story ✨ │ │ Sanctions, tariffs, raising M2 - it doesn't care │ │ Central Bank Of Russia sold off their US bonds & loaded up on gold │ │ ⬇️ US bond prices are down │ ⬆️ Gold is up │ ⬆️ Ruble is up against USD │ │ Expect this playbook to be repeated by others └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-14 12:17 🛢️🤭 crude oil almost back to "the market is never wrong" price i warned about the pullback being temporary a month ago perhaps surprising for some - but very expected if you analyze the fundamentals the scale of the pullback was your sign number 1 more upside to come 👀 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-13 17:51: ┌─ 🛢️ crude oil price is heading back up - just like I wrote earlier │ │ significant geopolitical events introduce volatility - but my thesis on increasing oil, gold & other precious metals + commodities has little to do with that │ │ 👉 it's about global liquidity flows & bond markets └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-14 11:33 🚀 silver price reaching 14 year ATHs 🍷 adding this to list of my predictions that aged like fine wine the upside price action won't stop here. i explained the reasons for it and what comes next in my previous posts stay tuned 📻 📖 Quoting from 2025-04-04 20:54: ┌─ Silver back to August 2020 price │ │ After a tariffs-induced pullback of 15% today, silver is now at start of COVID prices │ │ So much inflation that still isn't priced in │ │ It will recover. And a lot! └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-14 11:25 👀 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-12 15:37: ┌─ 🚀 you can already feel a new ATH for gold │ │ the loading screen is at 96% │ │ [🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩⬛] 96% │ │ and it won't stop there │ │ price action is showing immaculate breakout vibes 🤩⬇️ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-13 17:51 🛢️ crude oil price is heading back up - just like I wrote earlier significant geopolitical events introduce volatility - but my thesis on increasing oil, gold & other precious metals + commodities has little to do with that 👉 it's about global liquidity flows & bond markets 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-16 13:41: ┌─ 'The market is never wrong' │ │ A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything & prices accordingly - even before the official news │ │ Okay. │ │ Now wait & watch crude oil & gold raise up even more in price very soon │ │ This isn't a joke └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-13 16:42 🚀 crypto inflows materialized as expected but wait - it's not over yet more upside to come 👀📈 📖 Quoting from 2025-05-23 21:03: ┌─ ⚡️ Crypto market cap down 2.6% today │ │ Explains the overall pullback across prices. Some went into gold & bonds (yields are down today) │ │ Could head a little lower - but definitely temporary. Expect inflows/increase soon └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-12 15:37 🚀 you can already feel a new ATH for gold the loading screen is at 96% [🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩⬛] 96% and it won't stop there price action is showing immaculate breakout vibes 🤩⬇️ 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-22 12:08: ┌─ gold's behavior during the current 'bullrun' has been consistently to flip previous week's resistance to new support │ │ in the chart - the green vertical lines are weekly levels │ │ gold's current price action suggests it's flipping another resistance for support │ │ Road to $3500 🚀 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-10 22:16 Bitcoin all time high in the EU is delayed ⏱️ but that's actually a good sign for 🇪🇺😄 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-10 21:56 🇩🇪😱 Germany lost $2.75 billion on Bitcoin ok, let's look at the numbers: 1️⃣ German's yearly public budget spending is ≈$2 trillion 2️⃣ $2.75 billion is 0.138% of $2 trillion 3️⃣ okay then 🤷‍♀️ *this is also assuming they didn't invest that money into something productive ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-10 10:35 🇨🇳 China's reverse repo liquidity injections predict Bitcoin bullruns it works like this: 📈 high PBoC injections = increasing bitcoin price 📉 low PBoC injections = sideways or decreasing so every time China injects Yuan/reminbi, BTC price goes up 😁 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-10 09:53: ┌─ 🇨🇳 china injects liquidity mainly via reverse repurchase agreements │ │ 🏦 chinese central bank buys government bonds from commercial banks, selling them back later. this new cash is re-invested yielding a spread │ │ 💹 essentially, they allow banks to earn a yield on their bonds └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-10 10:29 🇨🇳 PBoC provides commercial & policy banks with liquidity via reverse repo open market operations this MASSIVE liquidity eventually flows out of china into the global economy so it has a very direct effect on asset prices wherever your are 😄 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-10 09:53: ┌─ 🇨🇳 china injects liquidity mainly via reverse repurchase agreements │ │ 🏦 chinese central bank buys government bonds from commercial banks, selling them back later. this new cash is re-invested yielding a spread │ │ 💹 essentially, they allow banks to earn a yield on their bonds └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-10 09:53 🇨🇳 china injects liquidity mainly via reverse repurchase agreements 🏦 chinese central bank buys government bonds from commercial banks, selling them back later. this new cash is re-invested yielding a spread 💹 essentially, they allow banks to earn a yield on their bonds 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-10 09:41: ┌─ 🇺🇸🇨🇳 USA & China are the global liquidity drivers in financial markets │ │ since 2000, each injected ≈$6 trillion of public money into markets. that's ≈40% of global liquidity 🤯 │ │ in 2025 - China is leading with injections └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-10 09:41 🇺🇸🇨🇳 USA & China are the global liquidity drivers in financial markets since 2000, each injected ≈$6 trillion of public money into markets. that's ≈40% of global liquidity 🤯 in 2025 - China is leading with injections 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-10 09:34: ┌─ weaker USD + FED rate cuts & QE allow China to print Yuan/renminbi without a capital runoff │ │ easing monetary conditions in the US means more capital in circulation globally - not just in PRC │ │ thus, relative inflation is kept under more control │ │ 🇨🇳🇺🇸 china's CPI is below US's ⬇️ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-10 09:34 weaker USD + FED rate cuts & QE allow China to print Yuan/renminbi without a capital runoff easing monetary conditions in the US means more capital in circulation globally - not just in PRC thus, relative inflation is kept under more control 🇨🇳🇺🇸 china's CPI is below US's ⬇️ 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-10 08:54: ┌─ 🇨🇳 china's central bank uses USD value as a key driver in economic policies │ │ the monetary easing policy is adjusted by PBoC based on the dollar's trend - up or down │ │ weaker USD + expected liquidity USD injections = Yuan/renminbi injections └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-10 08:54 🇨🇳 china's central bank uses USD value as a key driver in economic policies the monetary easing policy is adjusted by PBoC based on the dollar's trend - up or down weaker USD + expected liquidity USD injections = Yuan/renminbi injections ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-09 10:31 for LLM Engine Optimization add JSON-LD it made my thoughts microblog easy to parse and navigate by all major LLMs - including ChatGPT, Grok & Gemini this is an easy LEO strategy with immediate results. and it's very easy to add - you can vibe-code it here's an example ⬇️ 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-08 17:50: ┌─ ask ChatGPT what are Illya Gerasymchuk's latest thoughts │ │ and it will tell you 😄 │ │ now you can use LLMs to read my microblog thoughts - who needs HTTP, RSS or plan text? │ │ made possible by adding structural metadata to HTML └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-09 05:55 JSON-LD is a must for LEO/SEO it's metadata for LLM in HTML - so essentially for the web once I added it to my microblog/thoughts feed - ChatGPT was able to read & navigate it flawlessly before it would only retrieve partial information & fail to navigate from page to page 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-08 18:24: ┌─ here's how it works from a new ChatGPT chat │ │ i didn't provide any URLs - and it correctly found my website (indexing), and was able to retrieve the verbatim data from there and correctly link it │ │ JSON-LD adds structure metadata that LLMs can read - instead of your 'messy' HTML, JS & CSS └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-08 18:24 here's how it works from a new ChatGPT chat i didn't provide any URLs - and it correctly found my website (indexing), and was able to retrieve the verbatim data from there and correctly link it JSON-LD adds structure metadata that LLMs can read - instead of your 'messy' HTML, JS & CSS 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-08 17:50: ┌─ ask ChatGPT what are Illya Gerasymchuk's latest thoughts │ │ and it will tell you 😄 │ │ now you can use LLMs to read my microblog thoughts - who needs HTTP, RSS or plan text? │ │ made possible by adding structural metadata to HTML └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-08 17:50 ask ChatGPT what are Illya Gerasymchuk's latest thoughts and it will tell you 😄 now you can use LLMs to read my microblog thoughts - who needs HTTP, RSS or plan text? made possible by adding structural metadata to HTML ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 19:10 this is why funding repo rates are a very useful indicator if you're just arriving here - read the previous posts 😄 you can also follow along the quoted posts from below. just click on it ⬇️ 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 19:08: ┌─ smaller busts precede larger busts │ │ whichever is the ultimate resolution of the bubble - repricing will occur │ │ for some assets this will be good, for others - not so much │ │ even in the same asset class different assets perform differently (think manufacturing vs tech stock) └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 19:08 smaller busts precede larger busts whichever is the ultimate resolution of the bubble - repricing will occur for some assets this will be good, for others - not so much even in the same asset class different assets perform differently (think manufacturing vs tech stock) 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 19:08: ┌─ these boom & bust leverage/debt cycles have been the norm in modern financial markets: │ │ 1️⃣ each cycle gets refiled with more debt/leverage - boom │ 2️⃣ eventually, the debt cannot repaid - bust │ 3️⃣ go to boom └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 19:08 these boom & bust leverage/debt cycles have been the norm in modern financial markets: 1️⃣ each cycle gets refiled with more debt/leverage - boom 2️⃣ eventually, the debt cannot repaid - bust 3️⃣ go to boom 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 19:06: ┌─ while the bubble will pop - the side-effects can be minimized │ │ historical behavior & current financial signals do not indicate that this will be the case └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 19:06 while the bubble will pop - the side-effects can be minimized historical behavior & current financial signals do not indicate that this will be the case 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 19:06: ┌─ when it pops - massive leverage unwinding will occur │ │ here - equities & crypto will collapse in price, so will bonds. gold, silver & precious metals go up │ │ worldwide systemic defaults will follow │ │ the whole world is dependent on the US financial system, both public & private └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 19:06 when it pops - massive leverage unwinding will occur here - equities & crypto will collapse in price, so will bonds. gold, silver & precious metals go up worldwide systemic defaults will follow the whole world is dependent on the US financial system, both public & private 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 18:34: ┌─ this will also further fuel the asset bubble & devaluate USD │ │ so it doesn't mean that stock & crypto will go up perpetually - it's a cycle │ │ of course, at some point the debt bubble will pop - but it's unlikely to happen tomorrow 😄 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 18:34 this will also further fuel the asset bubble & devaluate USD so it doesn't mean that stock & crypto will go up perpetually - it's a cycle of course, at some point the debt bubble will pop - but it's unlikely to happen tomorrow 😄 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 18:33: ┌─ central bank liquidity injection includes direct & indirect QE, interest rates & policies │ │ end result is the same - more liquidity/cash in the system │ │ this means inflation & gold up │ │ at least short-term: equities up, crypto up └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 18:33 central bank liquidity injection includes direct & indirect QE, interest rates & policies end result is the same - more liquidity/cash in the system this means inflation & gold up at least short-term: equities up, crypto up 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 18:33: ┌─ using FED's SRF for liquidity means cash/liqudity is scarce │ │ there is a lot of short-term debt to be refinanced or default │ │ default is not an option. thus, expect liquidity injections from the central bank └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 18:33 using FED's SRF for liquidity means cash/liqudity is scarce there is a lot of short-term debt to be refinanced or default default is not an option. thus, expect liquidity injections from the central bank 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 18:32: ┌─ repo funding rates are predictors within this global, multi-factor liquidity context │ │ you can use them to understand liquidity flows in the near future │ │ this is also because repo markets are short-term debt instruments - so the signal is also more short-term └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 18:32 repo funding rates are predictors within this global, multi-factor liquidity context you can use them to understand liquidity flows in the near future this is also because repo markets are short-term debt instruments - so the signal is also more short-term 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 18:31: ┌─ regarding liquidity flows - repo markets are just one of the sources │ │ so it's more useful when you combine it with others, such as the central bank policies, how much short-term debt is maturing, and the overall leverage level └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 18:31 regarding liquidity flows - repo markets are just one of the sources so it's more useful when you combine it with others, such as the central bank policies, how much short-term debt is maturing, and the overall leverage level 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 18:30: ┌─ if regulatory ratios are breached, they must be restored │ │ there is only so much a dealer/market maker can do │ │ so you can deduce their next action with a high degree of certainty │ │ then, deduce its implication on the liquidity flow & into which sector the funds are flowing └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 18:30 if regulatory ratios are breached, they must be restored there is only so much a dealer/market maker can do so you can deduce their next action with a high degree of certainty then, deduce its implication on the liquidity flow & into which sector the funds are flowing 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 18:28: ┌─ so the market operations of dealers/market-markers is quite predictable │ │ you just have to look at their business & regulatory model - from there it's almost plain math under regulatory constraints └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 18:28 so the market operations of dealers/market-markers is quite predictable you just have to look at their business & regulatory model - from there it's almost plain math under regulatory constraints 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 18:28: ┌─ dealers/market makers are legally limited in their balance sheet │ │ there are ratios that they must respect, or face legal consequences (e.g. fines) │ │ check Basel III & Leverage Ratios for more info - I also wrote about it in my past posts │ │ committee recommendations develop into law └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 18:28 dealers/market makers are legally limited in their balance sheet there are ratios that they must respect, or face legal consequences (e.g. fines) check Basel III & Leverage Ratios for more info - I also wrote about it in my past posts committee recommendations develop into law 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 18:24: ┌─ in a monthly maturity/tenor timescale - the repo funding rate has very direct effects │ │ this makes sense - if your bond is maturing in ≈1 month, every day is significant │ │ so you see more immediate effects from federal reserve's SRF operations / repo funding fee increases └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 18:24 in a monthly maturity/tenor timescale - the repo funding rate has very direct effects this makes sense - if your bond is maturing in ≈1 month, every day is significant so you see more immediate effects from federal reserve's SRF operations / repo funding fee increases 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 18:23: ┌─ shorter-term US bonds yields react IMMEDIATELY to repo funding rate │ │ notice the huge green candle on June 30th - the same day of FED's SRF $11B volume │ │ June 30th is when the FED SRF volume recorded ≈$11B │ │ this is a 1 month treasury bill ⬇️ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 18:23 shorter-term US bonds yields react IMMEDIATELY to repo funding rate notice the huge green candle on June 30th - the same day of FED's SRF $11B volume June 30th is when the FED SRF volume recorded ≈$11B this is a 1 month treasury bill ⬇️ 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 18:20: ┌─ persistently high(er) funding repo rates will push the treasury yields up │ │ eventually, the bonds would be sold for cash │ │ again - think of the timescale: funding rates refer to much shorter periods └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 18:20 persistently high(er) funding repo rates will push the treasury yields up eventually, the bonds would be sold for cash again - think of the timescale: funding rates refer to much shorter periods 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 18:19: ┌─ repo funding rates don't affect US treasury yields immediately due to time scale │ │ treasury bond yield expectation is over 10 years, and repo rates are a short-term debt funding mechanism │ │ so the rates shock would need to be prolonged/pronounced to affect treasury rates └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 18:19 repo funding rates don't affect US treasury yields immediately due to time scale treasury bond yield expectation is over 10 years, and repo rates are a short-term debt funding mechanism so the rates shock would need to be prolonged/pronounced to affect treasury rates 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 18:17: ┌─ funding rates on repo markets & bond yields are not the same │ │ different timescales: │ 1️⃣ repo - short-term / ≈day(s),week(s) │ 2️⃣ treasury bonds - ≈10 years │ │ so even if a funding rate raises for a few days, the longer-term bond yields may not be affected └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 18:17 funding rates on repo markets & bond yields are not the same different timescales: 1️⃣ repo - short-term / ≈day(s),week(s) 2️⃣ treasury bonds - ≈10 years so even if a funding rate raises for a few days, the longer-term bond yields may not be affected 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 18:16: ┌─ note that FED's SFR doesn't lower the treasury yields per se │ │ it's more correct to say that it puts downward pressure on them, in the form of a $500B buffer │ │ & note that treasuries probably wouldn't be the first in line for liquidation └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 18:16 note that FED's SFR doesn't lower the treasury yields per se it's more correct to say that it puts downward pressure on them, in the form of a $500B buffer & note that treasuries probably wouldn't be the first in line for liquidation 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 18:15: ┌─ how does SRF lower UST bond yields? │ │ if you have a US bond and you need cash, your options are: │ │ 1️⃣ borrow cash against bond in repo markets │ 2️⃣ sell the bond │ │ this $500B liquidity pool for US bonds prevents their sell-off in the open market, which would raise their yields └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 18:15 how does SRF lower UST bond yields? if you have a US bond and you need cash, your options are: 1️⃣ borrow cash against bond in repo markets 2️⃣ sell the bond this $500B liquidity pool for US bonds prevents their sell-off in the open market, which would raise their yields 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 17:56: ┌─ with SRF the FED sets an upper limit on repo market rates │ │ most of the collateral is US Treasury bonds │ │ this exerts downward pressure on bond yields - by preventing sell-offs └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 18:11 not only US treasuries are accepted as collateral for SRF dealers/market makers can use: 1️⃣ US. Treasuries 2️⃣ agency debt 3️⃣ agency mortgage-backed securities agency debt instruments aren't issued by US Treasury, but by government sponsored enterprises (GSE) & federal agencies 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 18:06: ┌─ current SRF minimum bid rate is 4.5% │ │ that's the annualized rate that the federal reserve sets requires dor overnight repo loans via Standing Repo Facility │ │ dealers/market makers can borrow cash against US treasuries for 1 day at ≈4.5% annualized directly from the FED └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 18:06 current SRF minimum bid rate is 4.5% that's the annualized rate that the federal reserve sets requires dor overnight repo loans via Standing Repo Facility dealers/market makers can borrow cash against US treasuries for 1 day at ≈4.5% annualized directly from the FED 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 18:01: ┌─ in practice, FED's SRF is used when there is a scarcity of liquidity/cash │ │ the market has US bonds & needs cash, so lenders increase rates │ │ SRF sets a daily rate. if that rate is smaller than in the smaller repo market - the dealers instead borrow USD directly from the FED └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 18:01 in practice, FED's SRF is used when there is a scarcity of liquidity/cash the market has US bonds & needs cash, so lenders increase rates SRF sets a daily rate. if that rate is smaller than in the smaller repo market - the dealers instead borrow USD directly from the FED 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 17:56: ┌─ with SRF the FED sets an upper limit on repo market rates │ │ most of the collateral is US Treasury bonds │ │ this exerts downward pressure on bond yields - by preventing sell-offs └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 17:56 with SRF the FED sets an upper limit on repo market rates most of the collateral is US Treasury bonds this exerts downward pressure on bond yields - by preventing sell-offs 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 17:54: ┌─ SRF provides daily $500B liquidity limit for overnight repo operations │ │ a rate is published daily & dealers lend borrow against US bonds │ │ dealers/market makers use SRF when the rate in the open repo market gets too high │ │ SRF = Standing Repo Facility └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 17:54 SRF provides daily $500B liquidity limit for overnight repo operations a rate is published daily & dealers lend borrow against US bonds dealers/market makers use SRF when the rate in the open repo market gets too high SRF = Standing Repo Facility 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-07 17:49: ┌─ 🚨FED just injected $11B of liquidity │ │ 👉 TL;DR: interest rate cuts & QE incoming │ │ $11B is insignificant - but it's an early sign: there is a lack of liquidity/cash │ │ if undressed, will lead to systemic defaults. existing debt needs to be refinanced │ │ the fix/what's next? see TL;DR └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-07 17:49 🚨FED just injected $11B of liquidity 👉 TL;DR: interest rate cuts & QE incoming $11B is insignificant - but it's an early sign: there is a lack of liquidity/cash if undressed, will lead to systemic defaults. existing debt needs to be refinanced the fix/what's next? see TL;DR ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-05 19:49 btw I'm not saying Ethereum won't reach 1 million USD per ETH, but rather pointing out that comparing Ethereum to the bond market and oil is a stretch it's also more accurate to account for the whole crypto cap in this context 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-05 19:43: ┌─ $29,000 per lb of orange juice. │ │ You're early. │ │ 🍊😄 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-05 19:43 $29,000 per lb of orange juice. You're early. 🍊😄 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-05 19:06 all of this very bullish for gold & other commodities it's not just gold & silver - you may have seen the recent appreciation of platinum those commodities have still have price to catch up on & that has been signaled by their volatility gold up 40% on the year isn't normal 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-05 18:35: ┌─ so today it may not be wise to assume that the FED will hike interest rates into double digits to lower the CPI/inflation │ │ rather - the interest rates are headed down, bc of challenge in refinancing debt │ │ that's what I meant by focusing on historical patterns from this century └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-05 18:35 so today it may not be wise to assume that the FED will hike interest rates into double digits to lower the CPI/inflation rather - the interest rates are headed down, bc of challenge in refinancing debt that's what I meant by focusing on historical patterns from this century 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-05 18:32: ┌─ ex: in the 1980's US fought high inflation by raising interest rates towards ≈20% │ │ if the FED did that today - the global financial markets, alongside the US would be destroyed. there wouldn't be enough liquidity to refinance the debt └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-05 18:32 ex: in the 1980's US fought high inflation by raising interest rates towards ≈20% if the FED did that today - the global financial markets, alongside the US would be destroyed. there wouldn't be enough liquidity to refinance the debt 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-05 18:27: ┌─ using historical behavior can be a great alpha - but you should probably focus on the patterns from this century │ │ perpetually low ≈0% interest rates have been a norm only post ≈2009 (but the bubble started before) │ │ so you want to look at the behavior in that environment └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-05 18:27 using historical behavior can be a great alpha - but you should probably focus on the patterns from this century perpetually low ≈0% interest rates have been a norm only post ≈2009 (but the bubble started before) so you want to look at the behavior in that environment 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-05 18:22: ┌─ this is the general model, and think of these events as adding pressure towards the described outcome, rather than an axiom │ │ there are other events than can steer the pressure towards a different outcome, and the final outcome is a combination of all 😄 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-05 18:22 this is the general model, and think of these events as adding pressure towards the described outcome, rather than an axiom there are other events than can steer the pressure towards a different outcome, and the final outcome is a combination of all 😄 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-05 18:19: ┌─ this new liquidity will reach financial markets first, before reaching the "real economy" │ │ equity, cryptocurrencies all go up in prices. bubble further fueled. you know what (eventually) happens to all bubbles │ │ Gold & Co. is a great hedge └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-05 18:19 this new liquidity will reach financial markets first, before reaching the "real economy" equity, cryptocurrencies all go up in prices. bubble further fueled. you know what (eventually) happens to all bubbles Gold & Co. is a great hedge 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-05 18:12: ┌─ once FED lowers interest rates, it's likely to put downward pressure on yields - assuming term premia doesn't increase by more │ │ in the end, the yields will be higher than in the last 20 years, for the same FED funds rate │ │ QE/liquidity injections will further devalue USD └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-05 18:12 once FED lowers interest rates, it's likely to put downward pressure on yields - assuming term premia doesn't increase by more in the end, the yields will be higher than in the last 20 years, for the same FED funds rate QE/liquidity injections will further devalue USD 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-05 18:06: ┌─ liquidity abundance leads to the narrowing of spread between riskier and safe assets (mostly government bonds) │ │ safe assets fall in price, with their yields increasing towards the riskier ones │ │ US bond yields are high under tighter monetary conditions - liquidity is pro cyclical └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-05 18:06 liquidity abundance leads to the narrowing of spread between riskier and safe assets (mostly government bonds) safe assets fall in price, with their yields increasing towards the riskier ones US bond yields are high under tighter monetary conditions - liquidity is pro cyclical 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-05 15:51: ┌─ the higher use of lower quality collateral has pro-cyclical effects │ │ if the price of collateral falls during economic downturn - you'll get a lot of margin calls & insolvencies. this will further put pressure on short-term funding mechanisms, which already lack HQ collateral └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-05 16:34 the 14 year old dormant bitcoin wallet transactions are likely OTC operations if you want to buy/sell >$1B worth of bitcoin, you're not going to do it through coinbase 😄 i've encountered numerous alternative explanations - some very creative 🪒 remember: occam's razor ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-05 15:51 the higher use of lower quality collateral has pro-cyclical effects if the price of collateral falls during economic downturn - you'll get a lot of margin calls & insolvencies. this will further put pressure on short-term funding mechanisms, which already lack HQ collateral 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-05 15:40: ┌─ US Treasuries are by far the most popular collateral type in secured short-term funding markets (e.g. the repo market) │ │ outstanding volume of these markets is larger than M2 │ │ notice the increase in usage of less safe assets as a collateral │ │ not enough UST for its demand ⬇️ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-05 15:40 US Treasuries are by far the most popular collateral type in secured short-term funding markets (e.g. the repo market) outstanding volume of these markets is larger than M2 notice the increase in usage of less safe assets as a collateral not enough UST for its demand ⬇️ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-05 14:44 📡 quoted thoughts are neatly rendered visually it's like the quote block that you find in e-mail 🏞️ quoted post images are also rendered and you can click on the hyperlink which will take you directly to the quoted thought RSS is indeed a useful standard 😄 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-05 14:29: ┌─ 📡🌇 images are also included in the RSS feed │ │ so if a thought/post has an attached image - it will also be displayed in the RSS entry │ │ the image is included in 2 different ways - so should be compatible with your favorite RSS reader │ │ here's how it looks like ⬇️ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-05 14:29 📡🌇 images are also included in the RSS feed so if a thought/post has an attached image - it will also be displayed in the RSS entry the image is included in 2 different ways - so should be compatible with your favorite RSS reader here's how it looks like ⬇️ 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-05 01:56: ┌─ 📡 so if you open the though's feed in an RSS reader you can see all the posts │ │ without a need for centralized services. the RSS can be served via various mediums │ │ everything is static so very SEO/LLM friendly │ │ + as a bonus you'll probably have integrated search as well 😄 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-05 01:56 📡 so if you open the though's feed in an RSS reader you can see all the posts without a need for centralized services. the RSS can be served via various mediums everything is static so very SEO/LLM friendly + as a bonus you'll probably have integrated search as well 😄 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-04 22:40: ┌─ 🚀📡 added an RSS feed to my thoughts │ │ so now you can follow the RSS feed, instead of reading the content from X or HTML webpage. any RSS reader should work │ │ implemented statically generated RSS feed of all the content posted under the microblogging platform └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-04 22:40 🚀📡 added an RSS feed to my thoughts so now you can follow the RSS feed, instead of reading the content from X or HTML webpage. any RSS reader should work implemented statically generated RSS feed of all the content posted under the microblogging platform ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-03 17:53 gold did exactly this during the 2008 GFC its share in collateral usage in global repo markets increased and in 2025 we're seeing the same trend, with gold share in repo market collateral increasing 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-03 17:52: ┌─ as more markets develop over gold - so will its usage as collateral in short-term/repo credit markets │ │ it will likely become a more frequent choice for collateral/hedge during the multipolar transition. specially if bond yields continue to exhibit increased volatility └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-03 17:52 as more markets develop over gold - so will its usage as collateral in short-term/repo credit markets it will likely become a more frequent choice for collateral/hedge during the multipolar transition. specially if bond yields continue to exhibit increased volatility 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-03 17:51: ┌─ (re)monetization of gold is already in progress │ │ central banks have been consistently buying gold for many years │ │ this is especially true for Russia & China └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-03 17:51 (re)monetization of gold is already in progress central banks have been consistently buying gold for many years this is especially true for Russia & China 📖 Quoting from 2025-03-21 12:45: ┌─ Over 10 years the Russian Central Bank has increased gold holdings by x4.5 │ │ 🇷🇺 Gold is now 35% of all international reserves held by Russia 🤯 │ │ 🇺🇸 Comparatively, for USA the number is 5% │ │ This is why Russia and Ruble have been so resilient to sanctions └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-03 17:51 transition into multipolarity brings risks & volatility into financial markets some FX currencies & bonds go up - others down the demand for safe assets is not going away anywhere the debt still needs to be refinanced 🤷‍♀️ 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-03 17:50: ┌─ now you might think that gold would be a perfect collateral for repos, but currently: │ │ it's too volatile - price may drop > 10% on systemic risks │ │ there is no lender of last resort (you can't print gold or have swap lines for it 😀) └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-03 17:50 now you might think that gold would be a perfect collateral for repos, but currently: it's too volatile - price may drop > 10% on systemic risks there is no lender of last resort (you can't print gold or have swap lines for it 😀) 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-03 17:49: ┌─ most of debt is issued for re-financing of existing debt, not for new debt │ │ repo markets are the backbone of that. and since they're collateralized loans - there is a huge demand for collateral/safe assets └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-03 17:49 most of debt is issued for re-financing of existing debt, not for new debt repo markets are the backbone of that. and since they're collateralized loans - there is a huge demand for collateral/safe assets 📖 Quoting from 2025-05-27 15:22: ┌─ 90% of all newly issued debt is for refinancing of existing debt, not new debt/financing │ │ Thus, new debt is extremely inflationary & asset bubble-nurturing │ │ The financial system is extremely leveraged at a high risk │ │ We need to fix this. DeFi is the tool └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-03 17:49 remember those HUGE repo markets that I talked about? US bonds/treasuries are the favorite collateral for those transactions and that's why they're not going away anytime soon but of course, the financial system is slowly diversifying 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-03 17:46: ┌─ repo markets are HUGE - about the size of USD M2! │ │ they underpin the global financial system │ │ however, there's not many DeFi protocols addressing this part of the market │ │ i may pick it up in the near future │ │ if you're working on something similar - hit me up! └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-03 17:48 overall blockchain DeFi lacks development for short-term lending markets short-term market volumes are larger than M2 & Co. yes, you can lend on AAVE, but rates vary greatly 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-03 17:46: ┌─ repo markets are HUGE - about the size of USD M2! │ │ they underpin the global financial system │ │ however, there's not many DeFi protocols addressing this part of the market │ │ i may pick it up in the near future │ │ if you're working on something similar - hit me up! └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-03 17:46 repo markets are HUGE - about the size of USD M2! they underpin the global financial system however, there's not many DeFi protocols addressing this part of the market i may pick it up in the near future if you're working on something similar - hit me up! 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-03 17:44: ┌─ in the end, you get your UST bond back │ │ and it makes sense for you to repurchase the bond (collateral) even if the price falls │ │ as long as the price fall is < ≈haircut (2% in our case) └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-03 17:44 in the end, you get your UST bond back and it makes sense for you to repurchase the bond (collateral) even if the price falls as long as the price fall is < ≈haircut (2% in our case) 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-03 17:44: ┌─ so if you have a UST bond worth $100: │ │ lender applies a haircut (e.g. 2%) - 100*(1-0.02)=$98 │ lender sets a repurchase price (e.g. $98.013) │ │ so you use your $100 bond to get a $98 loan, for which you must repay with a fee (interest) $98.013 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-03 17:44 so if you have a UST bond worth $100: lender applies a haircut (e.g. 2%) - 100*(1-0.02)=$98 lender sets a repurchase price (e.g. $98.013) so you use your $100 bond to get a $98 loan, for which you must repay with a fee (interest) $98.013 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-03 17:44: ┌─ repurchase agreements are almost always over-collateralized │ │ the borrower undervalues the collateral by a percentage (haircut) - this is a buffer against price volatility │ │ the purchase and repurchase price are computed over the post-haircut value └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-03 17:44 repurchase agreements are almost always over-collateralized the borrower undervalues the collateral by a percentage (haircut) - this is a buffer against price volatility the purchase and repurchase price are computed over the post-haircut value ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-02 21:13 Basel framework treats "capital" as a funding source that can absorb losses, rather than an owned asset assets are funded by liabilities and equity, so assets are not a funding source Tier 1 capital is the first-line of losses absorption for a bank so gold can't be in "Tier" 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-02 20:43: ┌─ 🚨🏦 claims that gold is a Tier 1 asset under Basel III are FALSE: │ │ 1. gold is NOT a Tier capital under Basel - it's on the liability, not asset side │ │ 2. gold had 0% risk weight since Basel I (no haircut) │ │ 3. gold is still NOT considered a high quality liquid asset (HQLA) └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-02 20:53 🏦 under Basel III gold is subject additional funding requirements there's a 85% required stable funding (RSF) factor on gold under net stable funding ratio (NSFR) so for every $1B of gold that a bank holds - $850M must be funded with longer term retail or wholesale funding 📖 Quoting from 2025-07-02 20:43: ┌─ 🚨🏦 claims that gold is a Tier 1 asset under Basel III are FALSE: │ │ 1. gold is NOT a Tier capital under Basel - it's on the liability, not asset side │ │ 2. gold had 0% risk weight since Basel I (no haircut) │ │ 3. gold is still NOT considered a high quality liquid asset (HQLA) └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-02 20:43 🚨🏦 claims that gold is a Tier 1 asset under Basel III are FALSE: 1. gold is NOT a Tier capital under Basel - it's on the liability, not asset side 2. gold had 0% risk weight since Basel I (no haircut) 3. gold is still NOT considered a high quality liquid asset (HQLA) ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-02 18:14 volatility is at best - a part of a the risk an increase in volatility doesn't necessarily mean an increase in risk e.g.: shortages in global liquidity put mismatched liabilities at a loss. safe assets raise in price the high risk already existed while there was low volatility ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-07-01 14:36 pre-market tesla is already down to a weekly support back from July 2023 the narrative that equities price is mainly linked with EBIDTA or other revenue/profit metrics is false it's all about where the credit flows ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-29 14:05 check the correlation between FED swap line volumes and Bitcoin price large spikes in swap volume trigger an uptrend in Bitcoin understanding these global liquidity flows helps to visualize them as a part of the larger system and understand where it's likely to move next 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-29 13:57: ┌─ new currency in circulation is just one of the side-effects │ │ and that transition is neither direct, nor instant │ │ before these funds effectively become new currency, they flow into financial markets - that's why you see the stock market going up first │ │ the same for risky assets └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-29 13:57 new currency in circulation is just one of the side-effects and that transition is neither direct, nor instant before these funds effectively become new currency, they flow into financial markets - that's why you see the stock market going up first the same for risky assets 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-29 13:54: ┌─ FED swap line operations reach ≈$600 bn │ │ while the swaps are closed/repaid in less than a year, ≈80% of the repayment comes from newly issued wholesale debt │ │ thus, ≈80% of the swap volume eventually becomes new currency in circulation │ │ and then you wonder about inflation 😄 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-29 13:54 FED swap line operations reach ≈$600 bn while the swaps are closed/repaid in less than a year, ≈80% of the repayment comes from newly issued wholesale debt thus, ≈80% of the swap volume eventually becomes new currency in circulation and then you wonder about inflation 😄 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-29 13:43: ┌─ 💧FED swap lines = infinite liquidity pool │ │ 👉 here's how: │ │ 1️⃣ central banks exchange their foreign currency for USD, 7-80 days later, they reverse the exchange at the same rate + fee │ │ 2️⃣ central banks then lend these new USD to commercial banks │ │ thus, USD demand is met └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-29 13:43 💧FED swap lines = infinite liquidity pool 👉 here's how: 1️⃣ central banks exchange their foreign currency for USD, 7-80 days later, they reverse the exchange at the same rate + fee 2️⃣ central banks then lend these new USD to commercial banks thus, USD demand is met ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-29 11:01 💬 each comment is automatically saved with a 7-day expiration - all locally in user storage so essentially an automatic draft try it yourself: go to one of my posts/thoughts, press/click comment emoji, write the comment, close the tab. the comment will be there on re-open 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-28 09:51: ┌─ 🚀 added stateless comments on posts │ │ i wanted to add comments to my statically-generated thoughts site, but didn't want to depend on storage or server-side logic │ │ solution: send comments via e-mail, X/twitter or telegram │ │ demo in reply ⬇️ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-28 09:51 🚀 added stateless comments on posts i wanted to add comments to my statically-generated thoughts site, but didn't want to depend on storage or server-side logic solution: send comments via e-mail, X/twitter or telegram demo in reply ⬇️ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-26 19:55 central bank balance sheets are an underrated resource for understanding the global liquidity moves if you're following my posts - you already know that rising US bond yields, ruble & gold falling USD i've been warning about it for months 90's style data = massive alpha 😂⬇️ 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-26 15:52: ┌─ central banks will continue to buy gold │ │ you'll be able to confirm that in their upcoming balance sheets reports. pay special attention to China & Russia │ │ enjoy the dip, because smart money is! └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-26 17:35 beware that a lot of accounts with massive leverage trades are paid advertisements wether it's by the exchange or larger parts of the industry. don't forget that smart money needs a counterparty 😉 a lot of them, specially the larger are definitely hedging behind the scenes ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-26 17:32 expected? yes ✅ normal? no ❌ gold shouldn't be up 50% in a year and you shouldn't ignore what that means i wrote this back in 2013. as the current highs are consolidated - it will move up further maybe when you're reading this the above has already played out 😄 📖 Quoting from 2023-12-11 23:23: ┌─ If you only understood how cheap gold is now. To put it in perspective, its current FIAT price only reflects inflation prior to 2011 🤯 │ │ Any direct or indirect inflation following that time period has not yet been accounted for │ │ You don't have to trust me. Trust the price action └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-26 15:52 central banks will continue to buy gold you'll be able to confirm that in their upcoming balance sheets reports. pay special attention to China & Russia enjoy the dip, because smart money is! ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-26 14:25 USD decline prediction was spot-on ✅ 2 months later and US dollar index just bounced off from 97 the past 6 months have been a downtrend for $DXY 📖 Quoting from 2025-04-17 15:22: ┌─ 🚨US Dollar Index going to ≈98.3 │ │ Current price is a strong monthly level │ │ The next destination is low 98's └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-25 18:44 🚀 added a share action to every post so now you can press to open the share dialog it only shares the url, but the preview image of the URL contains the post/thought text definitely plan to open-source this at some point (the repo just needs some cleanup) example in reply ⬇️ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-25 14:28 reverse repurchase agreement is just the other side (seller) side of a repurchase agreement (buyer) repurchaser provides collateral and receives a loan reverse repurchaser receives the collateral and issues a loan at maturity the repurchaser repurchases the collateral ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-25 13:15 initial raise, now followed by a pullback large geopolitical events do such moves, however don't you for a minute think that the thesis is now invalidated 😄 both of these commodities will continue their uptrend 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-16 13:41: ┌─ 'The market is never wrong' │ │ A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything & prices accordingly - even before the official news │ │ Okay. │ │ Now wait & watch crude oil & gold raise up even more in price very soon │ │ This isn't a joke └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-22 23:07 and this is how the gold market opened green candle straight to $3400 🚀 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-22 22:58: ┌─ gold futures market opens in 2 mins!! │ │ are you ready? └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-22 22:58 gold futures market opens in 2 mins!! are you ready? 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-21 18:42: ┌─ soooo… new gold ATH next week? │ │ look at gold's price chart with weekly candles - it's unbelievable 🤯 │ │ gold is going up like a risky asset - but it in fact is a reflection of risk │ │ now it looks like a breakout from another consolidation phase 📈 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-22 14:34 now it's official 😄 ethereum price fell to $2180 📉 interestingly, the majority sentiment of large following X accounts seemed to be bullish please note, I wrote the original post more than a week ago - back then the market sentiment was extremely bullish 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-13 16:55: ┌─ While Ethereum has built a strong-ish support in the current area, it currently looks more likely to fall towards the ≈$2180 monthly support │ │ Do not underestimate what the new all time highs in gold are telling you └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-22 14:20 UN's Model Double Taxation Convention has a clear key benefit over OCED's since UN's model gives more taxing rights for the source state - it's the one that makes sense for developing economies imagine a developed nation benefiting from cheaper labor in the source state - who created the workforce in the first place, and having their tax base eroded in favor of resident state so the resident state would get double benefit: 1️⃣ cheaper labor 2️⃣ higher tax income for the government on the other hand you could argue for OCED's model favoring a higher volume of investment, thus effectively distributing more wages throughout the economy. this channels the funds more directly to the consumers, which would end up increasing their purchasing power more than if it had to go through the government first but then again, you must remember the global market is NOT a free market economy. existing legislation overall favors more developed countries, so protective measures for developing countries in the international tax law may make a lot of sense ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-22 12:10 btw here I'm looking at PAXG (Paxos Gold) token essentially, a 1:1 gold-backed ERC-20 token there is also XAUT from Tether whenever TradFi markets are closed - it's your go-to for alpha insights can't believe that in 2025 there is still such a thing as market closure 🤯 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-22 12:08: ┌─ gold's behavior during the current 'bullrun' has been consistently to flip previous week's resistance to new support │ │ in the chart - the green vertical lines are weekly levels │ │ gold's current price action suggests it's flipping another resistance for support │ │ Road to $3500 🚀 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-22 12:08 gold's behavior during the current 'bullrun' has been consistently to flip previous week's resistance to new support in the chart - the green vertical lines are weekly levels gold's current price action suggests it's flipping another resistance for support Road to $3500 🚀 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-22 10:08: ┌─ all eyes on gold futures 👀 │ │ COMEX gold futures trading open in 13h │ │ markets are closed now, but blockchain never sleeps │ │ on-chain gold-backed token futures may give you a heads-up - they're up ≈1.3% from yesterday │ │ interesting to see gold moves after open │ │ spoiler: higher price └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-22 11:16 i warned about ethereum's price downfall towards the monthly support over a week ago - back when everyone was still bullish now, another large liquidation price zone is approaching ≈$2240 what do you think will be the price action after monthly level rebound? trend up or down? ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-22 11:13 i warned about ethereum's price fall towards the monthly support over a week ago - back when everyone was still bullish now, another large liquidation price zone is approaching ≈$2240 what do you think will be the price action after monthly level rebound? trend up or down? 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-13 16:55: ┌─ While Ethereum has built a strong-ish support in the current area, it currently looks more likely to fall towards the ≈$2180 monthly support │ │ Do not underestimate what the new all time highs in gold are telling you └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-22 10:45 here's some ethereum alpha for the next hours ⬇️ ETH is approaching a large liquidation area at ≈2240 USD the closer we get to the price - the more long closures & liquidations first price down due the selling pressure, then expect a rebound up & I already wrote what's next 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-13 16:55: ┌─ While Ethereum has built a strong-ish support in the current area, it currently looks more likely to fall towards the ≈$2180 monthly support │ │ Do not underestimate what the new all time highs in gold are telling you └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-22 10:08 all eyes on gold futures 👀 COMEX gold futures trading open in 13h markets are closed now, but blockchain never sleeps on-chain gold-backed token futures may give you a heads-up - they're up ≈1.3% from yesterday interesting to see gold moves after open spoiler: higher price 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-21 18:42: ┌─ soooo… new gold ATH next week? │ │ look at gold's price chart with weekly candles - it's unbelievable 🤯 │ │ gold is going up like a risky asset - but it in fact is a reflection of risk │ │ now it looks like a breakout from another consolidation phase 📈 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-22 09:34 money market funds yield close to the risk free rate (think of FED funds rate in the US, or ECB deposit rate in the EU), while offering less risk due to shorter maturity essentially, you provide a collateral (highly liquid - usually sovereign debt) and get a loan against it 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-22 09:27: ┌─ record $7 trillion USD in money market funds (mmf) │ │ this risk-averse liquidity is bound to flow into into other financial assets at some point │ │ mmf consists of short-term collateralized loans - credit that is NOT captured by M2 │ │ last two outflows coincided with bitcoin bullrun └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-22 09:27 record $7 trillion USD in money market funds (mmf) this risk-averse liquidity is bound to flow into into other financial assets at some point mmf consists of short-term collateralized loans - credit that is NOT captured by M2 last two outflows coincided with bitcoin bullrun ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-22 09:07 NotebookLM explains International Tax Law to a Software Engineer okay, from now on I'm referring to soft law as API spec 😂 although if you think about it - with AI/LLMs you can program APIs in natural languages (e.g. English) brb dumping OECD MTC to Gemini for smart contracts ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-22 00:20 and ethereum's downtrend continues on… towards the monthly support area 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-22 00:05: ┌─ okay looks like it started before I could finish typing 😂 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-22 00:05 okay looks like it started before I could finish typing 😂 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-22 00:03: ┌─ look at that buy pressure exhaustion 😫 │ │ ethereum's about to go back into red (or yellow, in my chart) └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-22 00:03 look at that buy pressure exhaustion 😫 ethereum's about to go back into red (or yellow, in my chart) 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-21 23:36: ┌─ ethereum's resumed downfall towards monthly ≈$2180 support may be resumed in the next hour │ │ this is a 5 minute-candle chart - but contextualize my argument within the greater trend └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-21 23:36 ethereum's resumed downfall towards monthly ≈$2180 support may be resumed in the next hour this is a 5 minute-candle chart - but contextualize my argument within the greater trend 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-21 22:56: ┌─ ethereum's price will very likely retrace upwards once it reaches the core monthly support area │ │ the buying pressure there would be immense │ │ the same is true for bitcoin's support └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-21 22:56 ethereum's price will very likely retrace upwards once it reaches the core monthly support area the buying pressure there would be immense the same is true for bitcoin's support 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-21 22:44: ┌─ and a week later Ethereum indeed falls sharply towards the monthly support 😄 │ │ read up my other posts for more detail - if you're interested in the rationale behind this move └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-21 22:44 and a week later Ethereum indeed falls sharply towards the monthly support 😄 read up my other posts for more detail - if you're interested in the rationale behind this move 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-13 16:55: ┌─ While Ethereum has built a strong-ish support in the current area, it currently looks more likely to fall towards the ≈$2180 monthly support │ │ Do not underestimate what the new all time highs in gold are telling you └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-21 22:14 silver was another spot-on prediction ✅ 2.5 months later the price is up ≈25% silver's price uptrend will continue when silver's price increase is in the magnitude of risky assets - it's clearly telling you something listen to it 🦻 📖 Quoting from 2025-04-04 20:54: ┌─ Silver back to August 2020 price │ │ After a tariffs-induced pullback of 15% today, silver is now at start of COVID prices │ │ So much inflation that still isn't priced in │ │ It will recover. And a lot! └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-21 18:52 both, gold & crude oil are finishing their consolidation before a further upside bookmark this one for later 💾 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-16 13:41: ┌─ 'The market is never wrong' │ │ A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything & prices accordingly - even before the official news │ │ Okay. │ │ Now wait & watch crude oil & gold raise up even more in price very soon │ │ This isn't a joke └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-21 18:48 hello hello looks like there wasn't much momentum behind ethereum's pullback the selling pressure is strong price downside towards $2180 incoming 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-20 19:23: ┌─ 🎯 Ethereum heading down towards $2180 │ │ exactly as I've been writing for several days │ │ so many accounts with huge following were promising you an immediate bull run │ │ now you know which ones you can mute 😄 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-21 18:42 soooo… new gold ATH next week? look at gold's price chart with weekly candles - it's unbelievable 🤯 gold is going up like a risky asset - but it in fact is a reflection of risk now it looks like a breakout from another consolidation phase 📈 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-13 16:29: ┌─ 🤯 Gold may just go straight to $3500 in the next few hours │ │ Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-21 17:51 although gold already did a lot since this post - this is just the beginning ✨ persistent high inflation is here to stay FIAT currencies will continue to devalue, specially with the massive government debit refinancing & further interest rate cuts 📖 Quoting from 2025-05-26 15:56: ┌─ All time high for gold incoming… └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-21 17:28 ChatGPT reaffirms its preference for .txt over .html ✅ if your webpage/landing page is loaded with pretty effects and CSS - remember that that is just a layer of obscurity for the LLM host a plain text version as well - it's simple & effective ≈something akin to llms.txt 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-21 17:13: ┌─ grok confirms what I said regarding .txt format ✅ │ │ LLM AI models would LOVE if you website provided the key content in plain text │ │ the good news is that you can vibe-code that feature │ │ text is the universal medium of information, for both, humans and large language models └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-21 17:13 grok confirms what I said regarding .txt format ✅ LLM AI models would LOVE if you website provided the key content in plain text the good news is that you can vibe-code that feature text is the universal medium of information, for both, humans and large language models 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-21 16:56: ┌─ although google clearly isn't a fan of plain text 😭 │ │ maybe it is: │ - 0️⃣ performance │ - 0️⃣ accessibility │ - 0️⃣ best practices │ - 0️⃣ SEO │ │ but it still is: │ - 💯 accessibility │ │ i mean... you can access a text file from literally anywhere │ │ + your favorite LLM will thank you 🥰 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-21 16:56 although google clearly isn't a fan of plain text 😭 maybe it is: - 0️⃣ performance - 0️⃣ accessibility - 0️⃣ best practices - 0️⃣ SEO but it still is: - 💯 accessibility i mean... you can access a text file from literally anywhere + your favorite LLM will thank you 🥰 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-21 16:28: ┌─ 💡FYI there is plain text version of my X posts: │ https://illya.sh/thoughts/thoughts.txt │ │ a .txt file which you can access on any device - including smart watch & IoT │ │ no need for JavaScript, CSS or HTML rendering - saves electricity 😄🔋⚡️ │ │ text is an LLM-native format - so AI models can easily access, index & reason └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-21 16:46 that's something that I intend to open-source, but the repo needs a bit of a cleanup i've been using it on production, while actively adding new feature for a few months now it's build so you can customize & evolve for your needs fully with AI LLM-driven creativity era ✨ 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-21 16:41: ┌─ this was fully vibe-coded │ │ i wanted to have a place to backup my X posts - own them under my own domain & be SEO/LLM discovery friendly by having all of content generated statically │ │ it's written in Python & comes with Cursor rules so you can add features without writing code └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-21 16:41 this was fully vibe-coded i wanted to have a place to backup my X posts - own them under my own domain & be SEO/LLM discovery friendly by having all of content generated statically it's written in Python & comes with Cursor rules so you can add features without writing code 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-21 16:28: ┌─ 💡FYI there is plain text version of my X posts: │ https://illya.sh/thoughts/thoughts.txt │ │ a .txt file which you can access on any device - including smart watch & IoT │ │ no need for JavaScript, CSS or HTML rendering - saves electricity 😄🔋⚡️ │ │ text is an LLM-native format - so AI models can easily access, index & reason └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-21 16:28 💡FYI there is plain text version of my X posts: https://illya.sh/thoughts/thoughts.txt a .txt file which you can access on any device - including smart watch & IoT no need for JavaScript, CSS or HTML rendering - saves electricity 😄🔋⚡️ text is an LLM-native format - so AI models can easily access, index & reason ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-20 19:29 always important to remember that gold isn't crypto and volatility is a lot more conservative there 😄 you're talking central banks balance sheet assets - not so much speculative, hedging or portfolio management yet, $3500 gold is just around the corner 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-13 16:29: ┌─ 🤯 Gold may just go straight to $3500 in the next few hours │ │ Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-20 19:23 🎯 Ethereum heading down towards $2180 exactly as I've been writing for several days so many accounts with huge following were promising you an immediate bull run now you know which ones you can mute 😄 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-18 13:48: ┌─ 🎯 Ethereum fell below $2500 │ │ first part of my thesis has already played out - a retracement instead of a breakout │ │ weekly candles show constant rejection │ │ now await for what comes next ⏰ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-19 17:20 🛢️crude oil back above $75 just like I've been warning these past few days ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-18 13:51 watch. the. move. 🚀 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-18 13:49 FYI the new BRICS banknote that has been circulating on social media today is NOT real it's merely symbolic - NOT legal tender before a joint currency, there will still be more bilateral trade in local currencies unless those notes were to tokenize gold ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-18 13:48 🎯 Ethereum fell below $2500 first part of my thesis has already played out - a retracement instead of a breakout weekly candles show constant rejection now await for what comes next ⏰ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-18 01:21 everybody has been so focused on oil price, that they largely ignored the decrease in US bond yields across the curve this trend has been consistent throughout the month interpretation 🧠: short-term sign of run to safety, specially when combined with gold price ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-17 17:20 🛢️ Crude oil back above $72 per barrel Just as I wrote yesterday 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-16 23:52: ┌─ Oil & Gold back on the rise │ │ Just as I wrote earlier today └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-16 23:52 Oil & Gold back on the rise Just as I wrote earlier today 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-16 13:41: ┌─ 'The market is never wrong' │ │ A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything & prices accordingly - even before the official news │ │ Okay. │ │ Now wait & watch crude oil & gold raise up even more in price very soon │ │ This isn't a joke └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-16 19:27 Contract-as-product approach That's an interesting way to name it! ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-16 17:39 aaand crude oil futures are back above $70 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-16 13:41: ┌─ 'The market is never wrong' │ │ A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything & prices accordingly - even before the official news │ │ Okay. │ │ Now wait & watch crude oil & gold raise up even more in price very soon │ │ This isn't a joke └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-16 16:33 BTW I soon realized this wasn't an actual ATH for gold yet - but it is coming The historical chart is showing closing prices, not maximum So I inadvertently compared current price with closing historical price Good news - more time for you to accumulate gold before new ATH 😄 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-13 14:38: ┌─ 🚀📈 NEW Gold ATH is in - $3440 per oz │ │ I've been warning about this for a while │ │ You had a little over a month since my original post to load up └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-16 13:49 💾⏰ Just like with my post about the price of gold a few months ago - feel free to save & set a reminder for this one The prediction will be correct once again 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-16 13:41: ┌─ 'The market is never wrong' │ │ A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything & prices accordingly - even before the official news │ │ Okay. │ │ Now wait & watch crude oil & gold raise up even more in price very soon │ │ This isn't a joke └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-16 13:47 Shekel is headed down - to sub 4₪/€ Inflation will be a huge problem soon as well There's always gold 🤷‍♀️ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-16 13:41 'The market is never wrong' A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything & prices accordingly - even before the official news Okay. Now wait & watch crude oil & gold raise up even more in price very soon This isn't a joke ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-13 16:55 While Ethereum has built a strong-ish support in the current area, it currently looks more likely to fall towards the ≈$2180 monthly support Do not underestimate what the new all time highs in gold are telling you ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-13 16:44 Falling US Dollar index played out exactly as expected 2 months later and it's down another full point 📖 Quoting from 2025-04-19 12:47: ┌─ 🇺🇸 USD index bearish/in a downtrend │ │ 5Y timeframe weekly chart shows lower highs & lows │ │ Ever since Trump took office, every $DXY weekly candle has been red │ │ Greatest USD economy in history 🫠 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-13 16:39 Interestingly, the yields on US bonds are up across the yield curve - for both, short & long-term maturities The market - understandably - associated gold, rather than government debt with safety ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-13 16:29 🤯 Gold may just go straight to $3500 in the next few hours Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-13 14:38 🚀📈 NEW Gold ATH is in - $3440 per oz I've been warning about this for a while You had a little over a month since my original post to load up 📖 Quoting from 2025-04-25 11:00: ┌─ Now that gold is down & below $3.3K, it's a good time to say this: │ │ 🎉 New ATH coming very soon 🎉 │ │ In the time of political, civil & economic ambiguity - there is only one recourse - Au │ │ Lower interest rates & QE are coming soon - FIAT down, gold up │ │ 💾 Save this & check back └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-13 02:06 I hope you used the earlier advice to prepare for a new gold ATH The turn around the corner has begun 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-12 00:24: ┌─ 🚀 Are you ready? │ │ New all time high for gold is just around the corner │ │ And there will already be a strong resistance in the ≈$3300 area, due to the recent accumulation │ │ Low(er) interest rates + high(er) CPI will then push it up even further └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-13 01:57 As expected - 3 months was all that crude oil needed to spike back up Other commodities like gold, silver & others are up since as well ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-13 01:52 While Gold & Oil are up, Ethereum and Bitcoin are down As expected. A practical reminder that BTC, ETH & altcoins are NOT reserve assets I am big believer in crypto & DeFi - but it's important to remain rational, even if you are entertained ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-12 00:24 🚀 Are you ready? New all time high for gold is just around the corner And there will already be a strong resistance in the ≈$3300 area, due to the recent accumulation Low(er) interest rates + high(er) CPI will then push it up even further ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-12 00:06 Risk-free rate returns with quant trading strategies may be fairly easy to achieve even with parameter-optimized Bollinger Bands Not surprising, but unless the return can beat the mid/long-term bond yields - it's also not very useful 😄 Unless… leverage, of course ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-10 19:38 The Ruble thesis remains valid Up ≈13% on the USD in the past quarter 📖 Quoting from 2025-04-14 10:21: ┌─ 🚨 Ruble is up 30% on USD 2025 YTD │ │ 82-68 is a strong support - including pre-Ukraine war liquidity │ │ A small pullback is very likely to happen, but in the medium-long term it's heading towards the 68 │ │ Once sanctions are dropped by US & EU - RUB will skyrocket └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-10 17:10 🤯👉 Quant trading secrets they don't want you to know On the bright side - the Sharpe Ratio may soon underflow, thus turning it very positive Still counts, right? 😂 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-06 21:54 There you go 😄 📖 Quoting from 2025-06-06 21:13: ┌─ Observe └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-06 21:13 Observe ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-02 16:15 USD/EUR price action is developing exactly as described 😄 Once price went below the pink trend support line it fell through to 0.8785 exactly, before resuming a steeper downtrend after a failed breakout 📖 Quoting from 2025-05-30 18:11: ┌─ If USD/EUR falls below the pink trend line, it's a fall to ≈0.8785 │ │ From here the downtrend towards ≈0.8689 (monthly level) is setup to be resumed & likely under a tighter channel (up: pink, bottom: green) - so a faster downfall of USD against EUR │ │ Stay tuned 📻 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-06-01 19:31 🚀 .txt mirror for my X tweets/posts: https://illya.sh/thoughts/thoughts.txt TL;DR: 👉 plaintext version of my thoughts/tweets 👉 accessible on every device - even smart watch & IoT 👉 LLM-friendly format 👉 UTF-8 encoded text with emojis UI looks like this: ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-30 18:11 If USD/EUR falls below the pink trend line, it's a fall to ≈0.8785 From here the downtrend towards ≈0.8689 (monthly level) is setup to be resumed & likely under a tighter channel (up: pink, bottom: green) - so a faster downfall of USD against EUR Stay tuned 📻 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-29 02:38 🇺🇸 Cancelled tariffs means refunds, which means a larger budget deficit Rising bond yields means that deficit is (even) more expensive to refinance The FED will soon need inject liquidity via QE + lower interest rates ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-27 15:22 90% of all newly issued debt is for refinancing of existing debt, not new debt/financing Thus, new debt is extremely inflationary & asset bubble-nurturing The financial system is extremely leveraged at a high risk We need to fix this. DeFi is the tool ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-27 14:55 Michael Saylor doesn't need to expose MSTR's wallets for a proof of reserves All you need is Zero Knowledge Proof attesting that MicroStrategy has access to private key(s) holding a total of X BTC With ZKPs - no Bitcoin addresses are exposed ✨ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-26 15:56 All time high for gold incoming… ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-25 21:34 Sustained high bond yields combined with QE will lead to an inflation of equity and risk asset prices Here's how 👇 1️⃣ High yields = high required base return 2️⃣ Inflow of QE funds into equities & crypto 3️⃣ Equities & cryptocurrency prices increase Further fuel for the bubble ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-25 20:51 ⚡️ US Bond yields directly affect USD liquidity Here's how 👇 1️⃣ Repo + reverse repo market provides $5 trillion of liquidity 2️⃣ US bonds represent ≈70% of collateral 3️⃣ Lower bond prices means smaller loans, leading to a liquidity squeeze ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-25 18:04 🏦 Quantitative Easing (QE) by a Central Bank (CB) increase both - its assets & liabilities 👇 QE = CB buys securities from commercial banks 👆 This involves: 1️⃣ Transfer of securities to CB (asset UP) 2️⃣ Credit the bank's reserve account (liability UP) ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-25 16:40 👉 M2 Supply ≠ Liquidity 👈 M2 is only a part of the total liquidity 🔎 Here's an example: Repurchase agreements market adds ≈$17T in the form of security-backed short-term credit, thus increasing available currency M2 does not account for the repo market ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-23 21:03 ⚡️ Crypto market cap down 2.6% today Explains the overall pullback across prices. Some went into gold & bonds (yields are down today) Could head a little lower - but definitely temporary. Expect inflows/increase soon ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-22 19:14 🚀📚 Learn ANYTHING with AI fast: 1️⃣ Screenshot what you don't understand (e.g. book page) 2️⃣ Open ChatGPT*, attach screenshot & dictate your question - no matter how vague/unclear it is 3️⃣ Recurse & iterate until you understand Always validate your understanding * any LLM ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-22 13:06 Gold is having its 'calm before the storm' moment 😄 New all time high is coming very soon to all markets close to you ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-22 12:52 Of course - context is always needed In 2002 Fed Funds Rate was x3 smaller At that time, rates were higher overall To find rates as small as in 2002, you'd need to go back to the 1960's 😳 For 15 years now, US had effectively been under QE financing - cheap debt 🏦🫧 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-22 12:44 🤯 The year is 2002… US bond yields are at the same high levels as they were in 2002… That's 23 years ago In 2002 US national debt was x6 SMALLER than now 5.1% now is not the same as 5.1% before - it's worse. Much more debt to refinance & pay interest ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-21 22:14 Who's ready for a new gold ATH? 🙋 You don't have to guess - just look at the systemic raising bond yields across all maturities & multiple sovereigns ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-21 20:20 🇨🇭Not all European bonds are crashing The yields on the 10 year Swiss bond is actually down ≈40% over the past 3 months, although up ≈12% over 6 months ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-21 20:12 🚨🇺🇸 30Y bond yield is up 132 bp in 1h 30 year US bond is not only trading above 5%, but had its price fall by ≈1.34% in the short span of 60 minutes And you thought crypto & meme coins were volatile 😂 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-21 12:48 A month ago me and Gemini 2.5 Pro Deep Research had a disagreement 🇯🇵 Gemini said Japan will continue with QT, while I think they will be back to QE soon With Japanese bond yields at ATHs - which one of the scenarios do you find more likely? 😁 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-21 11:58 🇺🇸 US bond yields are at their ≈2006 levels 🏦 Current FED Funds rate is about the same as it was in '06 💰 The US Dollar Index is significantly higher today than in '06 High volatility in the bond market became a norm. Volatility & risk go hand-in-hand Concerning! ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-20 19:21 🚀 Updated My Thoughts Section Now, each thought has: 👉 A unique shareable page/link 👉 OpenGraph images with the exact text of the thought So you don't even need to open the page when reading the thought - it's in the link's preview Example: ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-20 14:31 🇺🇸 Good morning, It's another green day for US bond yields ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-20 13:06 🇷🇺 Russian Bond Yield Curve Is Inverted An inverted yield curve is usually a bad sign (e.g. recession) However, 🇷🇺's fundamentals are healthy Why inverted? 🇷🇺 Central Bank's 21% key interest rate, or rather the expectation of it going down, is what's pushing this shape ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-19 13:20 Here's why bond yields skyrocketing worldwide ⬇️ Countries own a lot of US debt (bonds) Moody's downgraded the US credit rating Now, countries are at a higher risk of default, because the US debt they own is now less valuable = higher chance of country's default (simplified) ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-19 12:58 Btw I've since learned that gold is only ≈10% of total reserves of the Portuguese Central bank - that's low It's 80% of their international reserves - those are basically regulation-defined ratios that banks must maintain (look into BASEL rules if curious) ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-19 12:52 It's very okay to leverage, as long as you are sufficiently hedging the risk. In practice this means that you are explicitly quantifying & accepting a certain percentage of risk in exchange for a certain return/alpha ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-19 12:41 Ever since I wrote this about Japan's easing monetary policy - the yields on 🇯🇵 30 year bonds are up more than x2 Japan heavily relies on debt. Today, Japan has to pay 123% more for that debt than they did 2 years ago Solutions: 1️⃣ Default 2️⃣ Inflate Yen Hello inflation 👋 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-19 12:07 Regarding global skyrocketing bond yields - it depends where you're looking 😄 Sovereign bond yields up: 🇺🇸🇯🇵🇬🇧🇪🇺 Sovereign bond yields down: 🇷🇺🇨🇳 I've been posting numerous explanations for of this - all very expected ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-19 09:49 The 5 year gold char is wild 📈 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-19 09:46 30Y US bond yield just crossed 5% 😳 Scraping the ≈5.22% from 2023 👉(Soon) highest yield in >17 years! Last time yields were consistently this high was 2007. But a lot of QE policies came in force after the 2007-2011 crisis, so rates were naturally higher back then ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-18 18:15 There is also ex-ante Information Ratio, i.e. the expected future IR, based on: 1️⃣ How accurate your forecasts are (IC) 2️⃣ Num independent investments (BR) 3️⃣ How effectively your strategy can be executed(TC) 👉 Allows you to model risk-adjusted prediction of investment returns ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-17 15:00 Information Ratio is a risk-adjusted measure of how good your portfolio performs against the market average/benchmark 📈 Risk=how much your portfolio return deviates from benchmark 💡IR=1: for every 1% of risk there is 1% return 👉Look for IR>1 🔑 metric in quantitative finance ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-12 18:47 🤯 Of course temporary, but still - Gold down 3% today Outflows into equities However, some gold-linked currencies like Ruble are up 2.5% Volatility is a measure of risk. Gold volatility is an expression of the baseline systemic risk ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-12 15:46 It's a mystery why US bond yields are skyrocketing Higher yield = higher risk, BUT the US has been doing nothing, but irradiating confidence, respect & cooperation 🤯 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-12 15:40 🇷🇺 Russian Central Bank currently has interest rates at 21% Yet the yield on a 10Y bond is 15.6% I've previously written that the market is both, pricing in upcoming low(er) rates & paying a premium to stay in Ruble Today, I found the targets for 2025 & 2026 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-12 15:32 🇷🇺 Budget deficit financing through the National Reserve Fund instead of bond issuance is one of the reasons why Ruble and the Russian bond yields have been doing so good 🇺🇸 $DXY is up - but not against $RUB 🇷🇺 Fundamentals speak louder than words ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-12 15:20 🇺🇸🇨🇳This makes no sense: 1️⃣ USA gets themselves into a net importer, 130% debt to GDP & higher refinancing costs 2️⃣ 🇺🇸 became so dependent on China, that 🇺🇸 economy can't survive with the tariffs 3️⃣ Now, the (not so good) student is lecturing the teacher? Why would 🇨🇳 listen? ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-12 14:40 🇺🇸 2Y bond up 3% percent to a 4% yield 😳 10Y yield also up & approaching 4.5% At least USD index is back above 100 for now ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-10 15:00 ⚡️You can now create GOLD from lead⚡️ 1g gold = two quintillion dollars ($2 × 10¹⁸) 1 gold ring contains x170 billion more gold that LHC produced over 4 years Oh, and that newly minted Au fragments into other particles almost immediately 😁 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-09 22:13 🇷🇺 Russia announced that they will cover their 2025 budget deficit not through the issuance of debt via government bonds, but via the National Reserve Fund - funded by natural resource surpluses 👉 Good news for the Ruble, of course 👉 Bond yields went down - 10Y is down ≈-3% ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-09 15:38 How does the Russian government get the oil & gas revenue? 👉 Heavy taxation 👈 So no matter if you're public or private - you pay for per extracted unit of natural resource This income is directly tied to the budget & NWF - which is then debited or credited, base on target ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-09 14:40 🇷🇺 TIL Russia has a National Wealth Fund Excess oil & gas profits are credited to NWF NWF funds are used to finance government deficit, instead of relying on debt issuance of Ruble (government bonds). Inflation-free deficit financing 🇪🇺 We need this in the EU for Euro ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-09 01:00 Note: the actual raising of the flag happened on April 30th, but May 9th is the day of celebration of Red Army's WW II victory It's celebrated today throughout slavic & ex-Soviet countries ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-09 00:58 ⭐️ May 9th 1945: The Red Army, lead by Zhukov, raises the Soviet flag over Reichstag Nazi Germany has been defeated ≈73 million Soviets were killed or injured for the world's freedom. Today, we celebrate their lives С Днём Победы! 🥳 🇷🇺🇺🇦🇧🇾🇺🇿🇰🇿🇬🇪🇦🇿🇱🇹🇲🇩🇱🇻🇰🇬🇹🇯🇦🇲🇹🇲🇪🇪 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-02 16:32 🇪🇺👩‍⚖️ EU Securitisation TL;DR Securitisation of subprime loans was a key factor in 2007-11 financial crisis EU Regulation 2017/2402 aims to address that by detailing how risk should be managed mathematically & how to distribute it among the parties in securitisation operations ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-02 16:20 WOW US 10 Year bond yields are up 2.24% today ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-02 13:18 Google + Zero Knowledge Proofs = ❤️🔐 ZKPs will allow you to prove your age to other apps via Google Wallet - e.g. a proof that you are >18 AFAIK you'll upload your ID, Google BE verifies & signs it Integrate with @MinaProtocol schemes & Android goes on the 22KB blockchain 😳 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-01 20:56 ⚠️It's important not to interpret the net notional futures positions simply as short - bearish, long - bullish There are several reasons why futures may be short & the sentiment is still bullish - e.g. basis trade, funding fee (for perpetual futures). Same for long/bearish ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-01 20:47 I've said this before, but I'm still amazed daily by how much LLMs have augmented the learning process A much more efficient way of information retrieval. Don't overthink the prompts - type or dictate your question, however unclear it is - neural networks will figure it out 🧠 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-05-01 20:29 Covered bonds are issued by a financial institution (e.g. bank) & include a claim on both issuer's assets & an additional collateral in the form of a pool of assets Investor has double recourse on issuer's default event: 1️⃣ Issuer's assets 2️⃣ Collateral pool ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-28 21:17 🚨🇺🇸 USD Index UPDATE - it's down: As expected - USD index is back down - falling sharply below 98 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-28 16:34 🚨Gold UP - exactly as expected 😁 Today's uptrend continues ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-28 11:05 Catastrophe bonds (cat bonds) work by having an investor pool deposit 100% of collateral and earn ≈risk free rate + premium paid by the insured If the covered event occurs, investors lose a proportionate part of their principal, as the insured gets repaid from the collateral ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-28 00:51 Basis/carry yield in expiring futures ≈ funding rate in perpetual futures Both converge futures price with spot via an arbitrage incentive - long undervalued, short overvalued Profits are realized once at expiry for basis, and periodically for funding rate (e.g. every 8h) ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-27 22:47 ⏰ Reminder to do a deep dive into funding rates, if you still haven't You can earn a yield on futures though delta neutral positions ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-27 21:03 Promissory notes are very simple legal documents, generally 1 page Unlike bonds, it has no coverants, no trustee & no collateral Financial markets are defined by legal documents with math formulas/values Promissory notes are very simple legal documents. It looks like this ⬇️ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-27 20:56 Commercial paper is unsecured short-term debt issued by large, creditworthy companies In practice, it's a short-term promissory note - so something a company would use for short-term financing, perhaps for meeting working capital needs ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-27 15:52 🚨 ETH & BTC shorts update: Short positions on Bitcoin & Ethereum are gradually reducing Institutional net position on cryptocurrencies is still short, but only a half from the start of the year ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-27 13:36 I asked ChatGPT o3 what will happen to the economy of the US, if USD index goes down & Treasury bond yields go up It correctly pointed out that for a heavily indebted net importer - these are not good news However, the risk is far beyond than just stagflation ⬇️ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-27 13:25 CME publishes daily data on physical settlement on gold futures The problem is that it's PDFs with numbers Some interesting alpha factors can be extracted from this 💡 Maybe making a website to visualize, interpret & combine that data would be useful 👀 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-26 15:02 Many boast about US's higher GDP than EU without looking at the bigger picture US/EU balance: 🇺🇸 is a net importer from the 🇪🇺 World: 🇪🇺: Net exporter 🇺🇸: Net importer Debt to GDP: 🇪🇺: 81% 🇺🇸: 123% Exports as % of GDP: 🇪🇺: 52% 🇺🇸 : 11% 👉 You must always contextualize GDP 👈 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-26 14:48 🚨GDP is a useless metric… …unless you combine it with additional context If $1 billion is credited into an economy, a significant portion of that will make it into GDP, thus increasing it. That debt may be low quality/default You need Debt to GDP, exports to GDP, etc ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-26 10:29 Rest of April was relatively uneventful 😴 ≈50% of all gold physical delivery notices were filed on March 28th I've learned that these are typical proportions for 1st notice day Last intent/notice day is on April 29th 📆 YTD April is the 2nd largest month in terms of volume ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-26 10:15 ⚠️ Regarding CME COMEX 100 Gold Futures: 👉 Notice period begins 2 business days before the first day of the contract month 📅 So these are YTD values are starting from March 28th, not April 1st (DLV665-T) The core idea remains the same - this is just a technicality of TradFi ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-25 14:39 Let's see how China's US bond holdings evolve from hereon 🇨🇳🇺🇸 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-25 11:30 Regarding the 1492 'gold top' & 533 years breakeven - the information is misleading These price extrapolations made a lot of assumptions & simplifications Perhaps most importantly, pre-1700's gold prices were fixed by the government - not a trade/free market derived price ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-25 11:00 Now that gold is down & below $3.3K, it's a good time to say this: 🎉 New ATH coming very soon 🎉 In the time of political, civil & economic ambiguity - there is only one recourse - Au Lower interest rates & QE are coming soon - FIAT down, gold up 💾 Save this & check back ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-24 12:08 Correlation between Ruble & Gold 🇷🇺🥇: Gold up ➡️ Ruble up Gold down ➡️ Ruble down Gold sideways ➡️ Ruble sideways Russia could make RUB gold-backed, make RUB convertible to gold on demand & position RUB as a 'trustless'/money-backed currency Already halfway through there ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-23 22:45 🇷🇺 Ruble is correlating with gold This also explains the recent fall in price. Gold went down against USD & so did RUB Such a retracement after multiple consecutive ATHs is expected Fundamentals are still on the side of gold 🧠 Remember: gold is 35% of Russia's int'l reserves ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-23 20:08 🇷🇺 Ruble outflows into USD 🇺🇸 A lot of liquidity moved from RUB back into USD. This is also telling by the rebounded USD index But gold will appreciate further. Russian Central Bank's massive gold reserves will pay off ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-23 13:05 Upwards retracements for US Dollar Index are normal $DXY fell to ≈98.3 as I previously predicted That whole area is a monthly support level, thus a source & trigger for massive amounts of liquidity It's not only FOREX, but also the world reserve currency ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-23 12:19 🇺🇸🇨🇳Here's why trade war with China will hurt the US The economic relationship between US & China is: 1️⃣US pays USD for Chinese goods 2️⃣China re-invests USD back into US bonds Thus, the same USD comes back to US! Tariffs = less imports = less US bond investment = higher yield ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-23 12:02 🇨🇳China has been increasing their gold reserves YTD Gold price keeps going up - major central banks continue to load up Gold is a hedge against USD. Tariffs are a medium of USD weaponization 👉 Expect US securities sell-off for gold by People's Bank of China ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-23 11:47 🇯🇵Article 13 of Accounting Rules of the BOJ defines special valuation rules for securities: 1️⃣ Yen bonds at amortized cost 2️⃣ Foreign currency bonds at market value 3️⃣ Stocks, ETFs, J-REITs at MA cost Since gold is not a security, it falls under Article 3 - book value ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-23 11:40 Generally accepted principles of corporate accounting are: - Historical cost - asset value is recorded at book/acquisition value - Prudence/Conservatism - decrease the asset value in the balance sheet if it has fallen in value. Unrealized gains are ignored 🇯🇵BOJ abides by them ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-23 11:34 🇯🇵Article 3 of Accounting Rules of the Bank of Japan states that "generally accepted principles of corporate accounting" shall be used for BOJ's accounting This defines the framework of how assets and liabilities are values in the central bank's balance sheet ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-23 11:30 🇯🇵 BOJ's gold holdings have been constant for 10 years But gold value has skyrocketed - does that mean Japan has been selling gold? No. Articles 3 & 13 of Accounting Rules of BOJ imply that gold holdings are recorded at book value/purchase value, rather than market/spot price ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-23 11:13 🇯🇵 Gemini 2.5 Pro Deep Research says Bank of Japan will continue with QT I say they will switch (back) to QE soon By QE I mean expansion of balance sheet, combined with low/negative key interest rates Let's see who's right ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-23 11:04 🇯🇵Bank of Japan just released their 10 day account/balance sheet statements 💰2025 YTD: - Gold holdings stable - Foreign currencies down - Cash up - JGB down - Total assets down Signs of QT, but it won't last. Soon, the balance sheet will expand again. High exposure to USD. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-23 10:29 A moment of appreciation for how the US Treasury reports the major sovereign holders of securities in this plain HTML table Clear, lightweight and works on every device There's also a plain text version, but it's not as neatly formatted ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-22 23:21 🚨 Short-term USD risk is up Premium/yield is a measure a risk Imagine you're purchasing a stock of a company. The CEO of that company makes hostile comments towards its financial division Does the required return to cover the risk of that company increase or decrease? ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-22 20:29 🚀 Updated https://illya.sh/thoughts/ - Dark/Light mode automatic + toggleable (click on profile image) - More compact design - Large image preview (on click) fixed on mobile My latest X posts are now also live ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-22 17:42 🚀 Pushed an update to my homepage at https://illya.sh/ Added a link to https://illya.sh/thoughts/ to which I have been exporting a lot of my tweets Making 'My Thoughts' button exactly like I wanted took a few iterations and custom contexting with Gemini 2.5 Pro ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-21 15:15 🇷🇺 Russian Central Bank key interest rate is at 21% 3Y Russian Federation bonds are at ≈16.5% yield The market is pricing in upcoming rate cuts @AskPerplexity and @grok will tell you that Ruble & Russian economy are in a bad state. The reality is different ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-21 08:06 🚨UPDATE: Gold has now reached $3400 All time highs, followed by more all time highs Remember: gold is not increasing in value, but rather the underlying currencies are falling in value Expect this trend to continue ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-21 05:52 🇺🇸UPDATE: USD Index in fact did NOT enjoy this #DXY down over 1% today, currently at 98.3 It's almost like aggressively weaponizing the currency erodes the trust in it. Who knew! ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-21 04:03 3 days later… and $DXY is at ≈98.3 😁 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-21 00:32 The US Dollar index will not enjoy this 😬 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-20 11:16 🇷🇴 National Bank of Romania's gold reserves are ≈13% of their international reserves as of March 2025 I like how they added the paragraph in red 😁 Gold reserves unchanged - value raising. Get used to this trend ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-20 11:08 🇷🇴 I like how Romania's Central Bank has this image breaking down their international reserves on their homepage However, I didn't understand why it links to November 2024 data, when March 2025 data is already available 😁 Gold reserves are ≈12% here ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-19 22:39 Christ is risen! Happy Easter! ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-19 22:35 Ford F-150 sold 2285 units in China 🇨🇳 Great Wall Cannon (长城炮) - 80K Unlike the US or most of the world - China has effective factories & supply chains - offering them a myriad of domestic alternatives China doesn't need Ford. Ford needs China due to imported parts ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-19 13:26 🇷🇺 Russian residents are net creditors to the world In Balance of Payments, financial account tracks transactions involving financial assets and liabilities Positive value = more capital leaving country than entering Sanctions make it almost impossible to invest in Russia ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-19 12:47 🇺🇸 USD index bearish/in a downtrend 5Y timeframe weekly chart shows lower highs & lows Ever since Trump took office, every $DXY weekly candle has been red Greatest USD economy in history 🫠 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-19 02:33 🇷🇺 Russian government gets a lot of revenue from natural resource exports, such as oil and gas This means the government has a lot of Rubles to deposit at the Central Bank 👉A big help towards the CBR maintaining negative net claims on the government Result = strong Ruble 📈 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-19 02:12 🇷🇺 Another reason for a strong Ruble is the consistent negative net claims on general government on the balance sheet of Russian Central Bank Russian government deposited more in the central bank than borrowed from it - meaning NO monetary financing of budget deficit ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-19 01:21 🇷🇺 Ruble correlates with gold, becoming a hedge against USD USD falls against both, Ruble & gold Russian Central Bank has been continuously increasing their gold holdings, which are currently more than 1/2 the size of their foreign currency reserves & 35% of int'l reserves ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-19 01:08 I've referred to gold being 35% of Russian Central Bank's foreign currency reserves, when I in fact meant international reserves The core idea is unchanged - this is a technicality. Central Bank of Russia reports: International Reserves = Foreign Exchange Reserves + Gold ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-18 09:09 🇺🇸🇷🇺 USD is TANKING against Ruble … on a daily basis 😳 It's only partially tariffs. This has been a trend even prior to them Russia loaded up on Gold & sold off their US securities. Trade with US is negligible Russia self-administered an immunity shot ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-18 08:52 🇵🇹 Portugal's Central Bank is LOADED with gold 👉 Gold reserves are >80% of total assets Props to @bancodeportugal for a healthy balance sheet ratio From now on - only gold-sprinkled pastéis de nata! ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-17 21:09 🇺🇸🇷🇺 USD/RUB dipped under 82 😳 Combine that with $DXY downtrend & a concerning picture for USD emerges ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-17 15:22 🚨US Dollar Index going to ≈98.3 Current price is a strong monthly level The next destination is low 98's ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-17 13:47 Grok summarized US tariffs effect very well As well as what will happen to the US economy, and by extension, US Dollar - the most important currency in the world ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-17 11:01 🚨68-82 is the next range for USD/RUB A lot of liquidity in that area & expect selling pressure. But there is also selling pressure on the USD RUB is already up 30% YTD, so expect some pullbacks in the white box region ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-17 10:56 🚨 Ruble falls below 82 against USD I've been writing for a long time about Ruble & the Russian economy, but it's still crazy to watch it play out live REMEMBER: Russia is still under heavy sanctions, and it's virtually impossible to purchase RUB. Once they're dropped: 📈 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-16 20:48 🥱 Gold hitting another ATH At this point it's boring lol ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-16 19:19 Nice catch! Indeed, the adjusted March deficit is higher. It also means the adjusted February's deficit is lower By 'adjusted' I mean had the payments not been shifted due to March 1st falling on a Saturday ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-16 18:11 Pushed updates to https://illya.sh/thoughts/ The images now lazy load & fixed several issues on desktop Also updated/synced the content ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-16 16:58 🚨BREAKING: Gold…. Actually, gold has been reaching new ATHs every other day Not BREAKING anymore - the new normal 🤷‍♀️ Heading for $3.4K now ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-14 12:14 🇪🇺🇷🇺 So how can you buy Russian securities in the EU? Since 2022 it's unfeasible. IBKR & KIT Finance suspended trading Deep researching with LLMs now, but it hasn't been very fruitful so far 🤔 Once the sanctions are lifted you'll see the prices explode ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-14 10:58 2Y US Bond is a good factor/signal of FED funds rate, but there's an even better one! CME's 30-day FED Funds futures is a derivative for this exact purpose. The market prices them according to the expectations of upcoming FED Funds Rates 🔗 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-14 10:27 This is definitely good news short-term for the USD! Today, short-term funding got 1.25% cheaper for the US government, and once the FED lowers the interest rates, the yields will fall more. Now ofc this will lead to inflation & devaluation of USD, but that's a a different story ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-14 10:24 Look at that liquidity moving from short-term Chinese bonds(CN01Y), to short-term US bonds(US02Y) 👀 The market liked the removal of tariffs, however, you can't undo the massive volatility over the past 2 weeks Moreover, US Dollar index is still below 100 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-14 10:21 🚨 Ruble is up 30% on USD 2025 YTD 82-68 is a strong support - including pre-Ukraine war liquidity A small pullback is very likely to happen, but in the medium-long term it's heading towards the 68 Once sanctions are dropped by US & EU - RUB will skyrocket ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-14 10:05 ChatGPT states that a higher interest rate means bad currency & economy Lower interest rates on the other hand - a flourishing economy What GPT-o1 failed to mention is that higher interest rates promote savings - a non-inflationary demand Keynesian economics in its training 🤷‍♀️ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-13 23:33 🚨US 10 Year Bond yield spikes above 4.5% at open I previously posted about the move of liquidity towards the Chinese bonds The USD is facing an increased perceived risk, which in addition to the public debt puts questions on its role as the reserve currency ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-13 13:00 Yuan downside party really didn't last 😳 It went up just as fast as it went down Yuan up + falling yields on Chinese bonds builds a positive outlook for renminbi The hinted US securities liquidation/purchase pause by Chinese banks also contributed to this All expected 🤷‍♀️ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-13 12:53 🚨 Chinese 1 year bond prices are up ≈6% Two extremes: 🇺🇸Massive selling pressure on US Treasury securities 🇨🇳Massibe buying pressure on MoF Chinese securities USD-denominated debt is being swapped for Yuan-denominated debt Tariffs mainly hurt the US (unsurprisingly) ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-13 09:05 Not everything is as it seems 👀 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-12 22:33 1. It will NOT happen 2. What 😂 Imagine swapping a part of the peg of the US Dollar - the world reserve currency - from gold to a highly volatile asset The US Bond market would crash at record numbers. Same for US Dollar index ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-12 15:31 🇩🇪 Germany's GDP is 1/4 of EU's GDP There are 27 countries in the European Union. 26 of them combined represent 3/4 of EU's GDP Germany, France & Italy represent 52% of EU's GDP You have to be very specific when talking about EU economy 🇪🇺 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-12 07:54 Regarding the bond market collapse ⬇️ US Treasury Securities are the main collateral used in repurchase agreements. Given that these are short-term, the yield spike is unlikely to lead to defaults However, the fall in bond prices will reduce credit, adding to liquidity crunch ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-12 07:47 Another important fact to mention regarding Russia, is that on top of sell-off of US securities & loading up on gold in record numbers, throughout 2025 Central Bank of Russia has kept interest rates at 21% 🤯 Result = massive savings However, if EU or US did the same - their economies would collapse overnight ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-12 07:29 Lower USD Index = USD Devaluation = Higher premium for USD loans = Lower bond prices = Higher bond yields It's all connected ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-12 01:28 Looks like 'lowest renminbi/Yuan since 2008' didn't last long 🤷‍♀️ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-11 19:55 🇺🇸 US Treasury bond yields are acting as a risky asset Over 2% daily moves is something you see in crypto 👀 And I don't believe the FED will be raising rates - so it's a market-driven US debt premium increase Lower rates incoming, but sovereign premium will still increase ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-11 17:25 I think now you understand 😁 Gold hitting ATH after ATH 🎉 Very concerning for USD ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-11 17:00 Here's a visual of how it looks like A timeline of thoughts/short-form content/microblog ⬇️ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-11 16:54 Just launched I'll use for short-form posts. Think Twitter/X, but self-hosted under my domain It's an MVP and for now contains a subset of X posts. Later I'll make it real-timish and cross-post some of my content from here Coded using Gemini 2.5 Pro ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-11 11:34 US Dollar Index $DXY fell below 100 😳 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-11 00:58 To clarify - here you're stating with US Dollar and then buying either Ruble or Gold. It's in this scenario that both investments have a similar yield If you start with EUR, Ruble actually yields more than Gold - 9.3 vs 11% (in the past 3 months) ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-11 00:03 And Ruble is up on Gold since January 🤯 All while Gold is at ATH & it's extremely difficult to buy ruble or any Russia-issued financial instruments due to sanctions Loading up foreign reserves with gold & selling US Treasury securities worked ✅ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-10 23:56 It gets crazier 🤯 In the past 3 months, amids the tariff madness - at the time of rush into safe assets - Ruble & Gold head-to-head You could've either bought gold or Ruble & gained 18% in both cases And buying ruble isn't easy due to sanctions. Imagine when it opens up ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-10 23:37 Ruble is a gold success story ✨ Sanctions, tariffs, raising M2 - it doesn't care Central Bank Of Russia sold off their US bonds & loaded up on gold ⬇️ US bond prices are down ⬆️ Gold is up ⬆️ Ruble is up against USD Expect this playbook to be repeated by others ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-10 23:30 🚨Financial Stress Index Keeps Going Up It has now reached COVID-levels Combine they with the bond sell off, the falling dollar index & you get a worrying picture The stock market will rebounce/inflate, but that will increase the premium for debt refinancing over time ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-10 21:47 Regulated equities market, which is supposed to be low-risk became as volatile as crypto Just look at NASDAQ, S&P500 & Co Every time I open TradingView it's a +-5% Maybe more regulations will solve this? 😁 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-08 12:02 🇷🇺 Russia is immune to US tariffs Russia's international reserves are as follows: - 0.007% US Treasury bonds - 35% Gold Russia exports <1% to the US. Russia is a net exporter This makes them protected from US sovereign risk (USD devaluation) & trade risk ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-07 23:15 🇪🇺🇺🇸US tariffs present a unique opportunity for EU's capital markets Billions of $ are flowing out of US markets. Let that liquidity be parked in the EU. All that's needed is inviting conditions It can start with a small, less-regulated market subsection to allow seamless foreign funds flow ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-07 23:03 Of course, this also gives China leverage - if The People Bank's of China (China's Central Bank) dumps their US Securities in the market, it will skyrocket bond yields, by reducing their prices Who will lend to the US then, and at what premium? And at 125% debt to GDP 😬 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-07 22:38 China is the 2nd largest holder of US Treasury bonds - a staggering 23% of their foreign exchange reserves This makes China extremely exposed to US systemic risk. Which is why tariffs will hit them double hard - at exports and at renminbi/Yuan due to falling #DXY Not saying they can't sustain it though ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-07 21:05 For net BTC/ETH futures positions by hedge funds, you can check: ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-07 21:04 Sure, if you: Put tariffs Lower interest rates Remove tariffs the maket will skyrocket But that also means increased: Asset bubble Inflation Public debt/deficit Tariff income won't offset it Monitor the hedge fund's shorts on risky assets, and when the ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-07 20:57 One of the core ideas behind the tariffs is to solve US's the trade deficit by incentivizing other countries to import from the US - I'm deriving this from the 'tariff' formula So by importing more from US - you get lower/no tariffs That won't work. Over the medium term the ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-07 18:31 Ruble is up 2.3% on the USD No tariffs + little US exposure + gold works well ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-07 17:51 edgartools on GitHub ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-07 17:48 Do not browse insider trading SEC filings on EDGAR directly There's a Python library called edgartools - much better, cleaner & you can directly extract the data Now go find alpha factors that you can use next time worldwide tariffs are set ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-07 17:21 TIL that you can pay taxes on vested securities/equities directly with that security Code F on Form 4 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-07 17:15 Insider Trading Before Tariffs If you're curious about how insiders were buying/selling their equity positions, head over to @SECGov's EDGAR & check for Form 4 & 3 filings Here's the latest one from $AAPL ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-07 01:28 Silver is down almost 20% ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-07 01:15 Gold is down 6% from its ATH Still better than equities, crypto & silver ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-06 23:54 🚨BREAKING: S&P 500 Fell to 2021 Prices #SPX futures / #US500 is down almost 5% since open ≈4 years of gains have been lost ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-06 21:43 Tariffs are just a distraction from the fact that orange juice futures are down over 50% 🍊 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-06 17:34 🇷🇺 #MOEX down 22% since Feb Expect it to bounce back very soon - as capital is moved away from USA & USD into alt currencies, which includes Ruble Once the sanctions against Russia are dropped - that's where Moscow Exchange Index will skyrocket 📈 http ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-06 17:22 🚨 US Yield Curve UPDATE Despite the falling $DXY, the yield curve is better (less inverted) than a 1y ago, but worse than 1 month ago Expect a steeper inversion soon ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-06 17:04 This tariffs-induced volatility is the dream of every trader Clearing houses are banking from fees & comissions Finally, risky-assets/DeFi/crypto volatility coming to your favorite regulated exchange What's even the point of all the regulations in TradFi? ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-06 16:54 🇮🇳 Indian Rupee's M2 supply makes it even worse Net importer + currency inflation is a recipe for depreciation and external dependence ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-06 15:59 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 BRICS & Tariffs Amid the collective chaos there is a group of nations set to benefit from President Trump's tariffs HINT: it's not the USA ❌🇺🇸 BRICS got geopolitical justification for their existence Tariff-free zone + local currency trade acts as insurance http ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-06 01:04 🇮🇳 India has accumulated a massive trade deficit India imports from China, Russia & then exports to USA & UAE. The imports are also similar to exports & a lot of it is re-exports This deficit isn't sustainable of course https://t.co ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-05 19:32 $VIX is a measure of expected volatility It's computed from option prices. The price of the option is the insurance/premium that the option seller/short charges So higher option price = protection against more volatility ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-05 18:50 Tbh $VIX isn't that high (yet ) ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-05 18:13 Institutional longs were just reaching 2022 levels at Q2 2024 How do you think Q2 2025 will look like? ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-05 17:05 Hedge Funds & High-Risk Loans Leveraged loans are loans issued to high debt/risk entities - akin to subprime loans Tariffs will hurt solvency. Only way out is FED lowering interest rates, so the debt can be refinanced cheaper Otherwise the house of cards falls ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-05 15:23 Financial Stress Index (FSI) UPDATE as expected, the risk is increasing Sustained volatility will drive the rest up ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-05 14:33 PHYSICAL GOLD RUSH It's not just Central Banks anymore In the first 4 days of April 2025, over 52K COMEX 100 Gold Futures contracts have been requested for physical delivery Only 4 days in & it's already x2 of January interest Physical gold in high demand ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-05 13:43 Source: ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-05 13:43 Silver Physcial Delivery Demand HIGH CME's COMEX & NYMEX Metal Delivery Notices show a MASSIVE demand for physical silver 16.1K futures contract for delivery/physical settlement, up x3 from a year ago A.K.A. tariffs effect on silver Investors are HOARDING silver ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-05 00:22 Switzerland 2 year bond yield went negative Swiss Frank appreciates against major currencies like #EUR & #USD, so investors accept lower (sometimes even negative!) yields Massive demand for #CHF ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-04 21:31 Russian Ruble vs Euro Past 6 months #RUB up against #EUR by 13% Ruble is up 34% on Euro since January 2025 (YTD) ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-04 20:54 Silver back to August 2020 price After a tariffs-induced pullback of 15% today, silver is now at start of COVID prices So much inflation that still isn't priced in It will recover. And a lot! ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-04 20:19 🤖 I asked Grok 3 why silver is down today DeepSearch said that this is likely due to a stronger USD But #DXY is also down 😂 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-04 20:07 Who's selling silver? 😭 📉 CDFs are down 15% on the day 🤯 I guess it's a tariffs freebie 🤷‍♀️ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-04 11:48 🇨🇳China: announces tariffs on 5% of US exports Bitcoin 🫠: ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-04 11:35 If you think 🇺🇸USD M2 is bad, look at 🇷🇺Russia's In 3 years, Ruble DOUBLED in supply. Up by a 100% How come despite this, Ruble maintained its value in FOREX? The answer is GOLD, more specifically its expansion in the balance sheet of Central Bank of Russia It works 🤷‍♀️ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-04 11:19 🚨🇺🇸USD M2 Money Supply ⬆️ 790 days to increase M2 by $6.3T ⬇️ 550 days to decrease M2 by $1.1T ⬆️ 500 days to increase M2 by $1.1T ⏯️ QE never stopped, it merely paused When inflation is blamed on tariffs, keep this in mind ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-04 11:05 🚨🇺🇸 USD M2 Money Supply is almost back at pre-interest rate increase levels That QT didn't last after all 🤷‍♀️ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-03 19:08 Remember: FIAT currencies come & go ✨ Only Gold remains ✨ http ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-03 18:33 🚨 Financial Stress Index Tariffs Update Trump/US tariffs so far: ⬇️ Equity valuation down ⬆️ Volatility up ⬆️ Safe assets up ⬆️ Credit spread up 📈 A perfect setup for the increase of OFR's Financial Stress Index Let's see - it's updated with a 2 day delay ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-03 17:28 🇪🇺 The best countermeasure that EU can take is swapping US securities for Gold Gold is inversely correlated with USD. Such a decision can be done today and it will: 1️⃣be a response to the US 2️⃣increase value of EUR 3️⃣minimize consumer impact Anything else will hurt the economy ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-03 13:31 🤯 USD/EUR down 3 cents overnight 🇺🇸 An immediate response to Trump/USA import tariffs This is Bitcoin-level volatility in FOREX Volatility is a measure of risk. What does this mean for the US Dollar? ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-02 23:49 🚨 Bitcoin Reacts To US Tariffs: As expected, a massive BTC sell-off post Trump's tariffs announcement The price peaked during the speech, and then dumped down more than 6% so far + US dollar index is down A move away from riskier assets & USD into Gold & foreign currencies https:// ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-02 23:04 🚨 🇷🇺🇨🇳🇪🇺🇯🇵 reacting to US tariffs The initial FOREX response to tariffs is a net outflow from #USD US dollar fell against major currencies. The Euro fell against both the Chinese Yuan/renminbi & the Russian Ruble Interesting, but expected having #RUB & #Yuan gain from this https:// ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-02 21:56 🔴 $BTC, $DXY & $XAU during Trump's tariffs speech Interesting to observe the negative correlation between Bitcoin & US Dollar Index Gold wasn't clearly correlated with either. This makes sense - the tariffs lead to uncertainty regarding the reserve currency & central bank… https://t.co ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-04-02 18:00 🚨 JUST IN: $87K Bitcoin This is just a pre-tariffs announcements pump that will sell off once Trump speaks in a few hours, right? 😁 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-31 15:34 🚨Trump's Tariffs Update - 🇨🇳, 🇯🇵, 🇰🇷 Not only tariffs are tanking the US economy, but their strongest partners are looking elsewhere Unsurprisingly, Asia will find other buyers for their products - they have the upper hand, not 🇺🇸 or 🇪🇺 - a result of perpetual import deficits… ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-29 00:42 🚨Update on Ethereum shorts: Latest data shows that institutional investors reduced their short exposure by ≈60% Not necessarily bullish - a lot of it is taking profits from the record net short positions + $1900 is a key weekly support level for #ETH, so a rebound is normal ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-27 16:18 📉 S&P 500, Motor Industry, NASDAQ, Bitcoin - all down 🥇Meanwhile gold hitting ATHs: http ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-27 15:29 🇺🇸 So the car tariffs are also inflationary USA cars get credit incentives, by making interest payments tax deductible So this means more expensive cars + more credit availability for them You can't make this up 😳 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-26 22:36 🎉 Congratulations to the American consumer who now has 2 options: 1. Pay 25% more for the car they want 2. Pay <25% more for a lower-quality domestically produced car + The income tax is here to stay ✌️ And you thought the Biden administration was doing questionable moves 😂 htt ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-26 21:30 Architecting your balance sheet around highly speculative & volatile instruments is a good idea, until it isn't 💖 Although with 0% coupon the burden here is mostly on the investor 🤷‍♀️ The stock market is starting to resemble a casino more every day…. http ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-26 21:01 ✅ It's confirmed You can now fully automate niche meme pages With carefully crafted prompts and context it can generate a lot traffic and organic engagement ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-26 20:45 Today, I asked GPT-4o to create a meme about vibe coding But you may need to be an AI language model to understand it 😳 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-26 20:25 The new GPT-4o image generator is cool, but who else thinks that in the next week or so some open-source Chinese model will it to dust? 😂🇨🇳 You can probably already find something close to it on huggingface ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-26 03:45 🤯 GPT-4o new image gen is surprisingly good at generating comics & memes Here's an xkcd style webcomic about vibe coding ⬇️ http ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-25 21:13 Do you face the same philosophical issues with your cat? I don't think she sees the irony 😡 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-25 20:50 2nd attempt was much better 😁 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-25 20:49 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-25 20:48 The new GPT 4o is also quite good as an image editor It's able to fairly accurately replicate & alter subjects But maybe they should increase their training set on the anatomy of cats 😂 (expand the image) http ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-25 20:23 The new GPT 4o image generator is impressive! You can ask ChatGPT to generate a UI design, and then pass it to Cursor/Claude/V0 for implementation Character accuracy makes a big difference ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-25 16:30 Microcontrollers fostered IoT - Internet of Things Vibe coding is fostering IoV - Internet of Vulnerabilities But IoT is already IoV 😁 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-25 13:41 🫧 Debt bubble about to pop Borrowing is increasing & collateralization is decreasing These are symptoms of a highly leveraged economy Lowest (over)collateralization rate in 10 years. Surely a lot of that is caused by the huge amount of cheap credit issued during COVID, which… http ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-25 13:27 📈 Institutional investors have increased their reverse purchase agreements exposure ever since the central bank interest rates spiked Repos are shorter-term loans, meaning they present a shorter commitment, thus less risk Another message is clear: institutions are expecting… ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-25 10:10 Hedge funds are shorting $ETH in record numbers 😳 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-21 15:01 With the inflation trend… not impossible 🤣🤣 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-21 12:45 Over 10 years the Russian Central Bank has increased gold holdings by x4.5 🇷🇺 Gold is now 35% of all international reserves held by Russia 🤯 🇺🇸 Comparatively, for USA the number is 5% This is why Russia and Ruble have been so resilient to sanctions ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-16 16:49 Just found GUN, already prototyping It enables a decentralized, reactive, real-time, shared graph layer allowing you to build dApps right in the browser Every visitor/user of your web app becomes a peer in the network of your application. The peers can communicate events &… ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-03-09 21:42 Oh btw, this was also about option pricing These bonds acted as synthetic call options, which were priced below the market value of calls on $MSTR at the time ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-02-27 17:43 Yeah crypto & stocks is fun, but have you tried orange juice futures? 😂 Almost 50% down since December 🤨 http ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-02-12 13:29 I'm working on an Agent and was debugging why the responses from the LLM come as null/empty Turns out function calling is currently broken on DeepSeek ☹️ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-02-03 13:09 🤯 Think about all of those US market outflows due to DeepSeek, Qwen & Co. $NVDA's & other AI-related stock crash wasn't just about cheaper AI-compute. The outflow also represents funds that may be potentially invested in the Chinese market This point is often omitted 🤫 https:// ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2025-01-22 16:46 Running LLM models locally really makes you appreciate the 'unlimited' bandwidth, which is a standard offering in most EU countries ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-12-31 15:12 Are you building DeFi in the EU? Here's what you need to know ⬇️ At the time of conceptualizing this 'liquid futures protocol' I didn't even know where to start with regard to its legal compliance A few days ago I finalized a paper exploring how one can legally launch on-chain… ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-12-25 16:44 🇪🇺 The future of Web3 & DeFi in the EU 🇪🇺 Legal compliance is fundamental for wide adoption of Web3 & DeFi. While security audits of DeFi protocols are a common practice, the same is not true for regulatory compliance audits All investment services in the EU, including those… https:// ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-12-14 16:29 🚨JUST IN: Quantum Computer Hacked #Bitcoin Satoshi Nakamoto has been suspiciously quiet since the news broke out 🤫 According to experts on social media, the recent advancements in quantum computing have just made Bitcoin obsolete. Of course, neither the market, nor… ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-12-02 16:34 Bad news for #USD 👎 The value of a currency is a direct reflection of the organic demand for it. Sanctions will decrease the demand for US Dollar, via disincentives Plus, it's the US consumer that will be paying for the tariffs, not the BRICS countries 🤷‍♀️ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-11-24 15:06 👉 Sold at par 👉 0% coupon 👉 Unsecured debt 👉 Option to convert to equity at $672/share For the loan of the principal you're getting an option to buy $MSTR stock at $672 in 2029 - 60% higher than the current share price of ≈ $420 Why not just buy $BTC directly? 🤷‍♀️ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-11-21 12:27 Very interesting alternative USD market Usual flow: 🇺🇸 buys oil from 🇸🇦, 🇸🇦 reinvest excess back into UST New flow: 🇸🇦 reinvests excess into 🇨🇳-issued USD bonds Result: USD flows to 🇨🇳, instead of 🇺🇸, as the USD-denominated debt (bonds) are issued directly by 🇨🇳 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-11-15 10:15 Part of Bitcoin's value derives from the total electricity cost of maintaining a decentralized, trustless, immutable ledger of transactions for >15 years 20% of GDP is spent on financial services. Blockchains remove intermediaries & improve efficiency It's apples to oranges 🤷‍♀️ https:/ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-11-05 21:36 🚀🎧 Podcast covering #BRICS Currency on the blockchain is out! 🔗🔈: 🤖 Smart contracts & #DeFi are an ideal match for #BRICSPay showcased at #BRICS2024 summit. Podcast & article exply why 🎤 AI Audio created with NotebookLM https:// ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-10-27 17:40 🇯🇵🎧 Added an audio version of the article It's an AI-generated podcast of the article using NotebookLM audio overview with custom sources & instructions 🔗 http ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-10-27 15:51 🇯🇵🧠 For a deeper dive into Japan's deposit insurance system, read or listen my article at https://illya.sh/blog/posts/deposit-guarantee-scheme-japan-dia-dicj/ It covers Japan's deposit insurance's: • Legal framework • Historical cases • Risk analysis • EU comparison Got questions? Ask me! 👇 📖 Quoting from 2024-10-27 15:51: ┌─ 🎌 While Japan has been successful in resolving hundreds of financial institution failures, the debt-heavy approach can only be only effective if the value created by credit is larger than the principal │ │ Otherwise, there's another bubble building up 🫧 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-10-27 15:51 🎌 While Japan has been successful in resolving hundreds of financial institution failures, the debt-heavy approach can only be only effective if the value created by credit is larger than the principal Otherwise, there's another bubble building up 🫧 📖 Quoting from 2024-10-27 15:51: ┌─ 🇯🇵⚠️ Current risks: │ │ • Heavy reliance on debt │ • Large US Dollar & Securities exposure │ • Currency devaluation, leading to inflation │ │ These could trigger a 90s-style crisis 2.0 📉 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-10-27 15:51 🇯🇵⚠️ Current risks: • Heavy reliance on debt • Large US Dollar & Securities exposure • Currency devaluation, leading to inflation These could trigger a 90s-style crisis 2.0 📉 📖 Quoting from 2024-10-27 15:51: ┌─ 🚨 The system faced its biggest test during the 90s banking crisis: │ │ • 110 financial institutions resolved │ • Full deposit protection implemented │ • Massive debt-based interventions │ │ DICJ has met its insurance obligations, but at what cost? 🤔 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-10-27 15:51 🚨 The system faced its biggest test during the 90s banking crisis: • 110 financial institutions resolved • Full deposit protection implemented • Massive debt-based interventions DICJ has met its insurance obligations, but at what cost? 🤔 📖 Quoting from 2024-10-27 15:51: ┌─ 🇯🇵🆚🇪🇺 │ Japan's & EU's deposit guarantee schemes differ⬇️ │ │ 🇯🇵 DICJ: Active crisis manager (Act 34 of 1971) │ 🇪🇺 DGS: Mainly deposit protection (Directive 2014/49/EU) │ │ Japan's approach = more intervention power & broader mandate │ EU's approach = more focused mandate └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-10-27 15:51 🇯🇵🆚🇪🇺 Japan's & EU's deposit guarantee schemes differ⬇️ 🇯🇵 DICJ: Active crisis manager (Act 34 of 1971) 🇪🇺 DGS: Mainly deposit protection (Directive 2014/49/EU) Japan's approach = more intervention power & broader mandate EU's approach = more focused mandate 📖 Quoting from 2024-10-27 15:51: ┌─ 💰 DICJ's funding comes from: │ │ • Self-issued bonds │ • Insurance premiums paid by banks │ • Borrowed funds from financial institutions & public │ │ In practice, operation financing is heavily relied on debt, making it risky long-term 📈 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-10-27 15:51 💰 DICJ's funding comes from: • Self-issued bonds • Insurance premiums paid by banks • Borrowed funds from financial institutions & public In practice, operation financing is heavily relied on debt, making it risky long-term 📈 📖 Quoting from 2024-10-27 15:51: ┌─ 🚀 How fast do you get your deposits back? │ │ The Incubator Bank case (2010) shows DICJ timeline in practice: │ • Bank failed on Friday │ • Deposits returned by Monday │ │ 3 days/by next working day to have insured deposits available 🤝 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-10-27 15:51 🚀 How fast do you get your deposits back? The Incubator Bank case (2010) shows DICJ timeline in practice: • Bank failed on Friday • Deposits returned by Monday 3 days/by next working day to have insured deposits available 🤝 📖 Quoting from 2024-10-27 15:51: ┌─ 💴 Coverage limits: │ • Regular deposits: Up to ¥10M (~$65k/€60k) │ • Payment & settlement accounts: 100% covered │ │ 💡Fun fact: During the 90s crisis, ALL deposits were fully protected. Japan gradually reduced this to ¥10M by 2005 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-10-27 15:51 💴 Coverage limits: • Regular deposits: Up to ¥10M (~$65k/€60k) • Payment & settlement accounts: 100% covered 💡Fun fact: During the 90s crisis, ALL deposits were fully protected. Japan gradually reduced this to ¥10M by 2005 📖 Quoting from 2024-10-27 15:50: ┌─ 🏦 The Deposit Insurance Corporation of Japan (DICJ), provisioned in the Deposit Insurance Act (DIA) defines as its goals: │ │ • Deposit insurance │ • Financial system stability │ • Troubled financial institution resolution │ │ Deposits guarantee is just one of responsibilities └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-10-27 15:50 🏦 The Deposit Insurance Corporation of Japan (DICJ), provisioned in the Deposit Insurance Act (DIA) defines as its goals: • Deposit insurance • Financial system stability • Troubled financial institution resolution Deposits guarantee is just one of responsibilities 📖 Quoting from 2024-10-27 15:50: ┌─ 🇯🇵 How does Japan protect bank deposits when banks fail? │ │ 🤯 Their deposit insurance system handled 180+ financial institution failures, including the massive 90's banking crisis │ │ 👉 Here's how Japan's ¥10M deposit guarantee scheme works: https://illya.sh/blog/posts/deposit-guarantee-scheme-japan-dia-dicj/ │ │ 🧵 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-10-27 15:50 🇯🇵 How does Japan protect bank deposits when banks fail? 🤯 Their deposit insurance system handled 180+ financial institution failures, including the massive 90's banking crisis 👉 Here's how Japan's ¥10M deposit guarantee scheme works: https://illya.sh/blog/posts/deposit-guarantee-scheme-japan-dia-dicj/ 🧵 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-10-22 09:25 Something tells me this will be an interesting session 👀 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-10-19 12:52 👀 Tried out the BRICS Pay demo. Gold/#XAU is one of the supported currencies (the only real money in the list!) 🌏 To be supported cross-border, within every member nation 💳 You can use VISA/Mastercard to load up your account 🇪🇺We urgently need an akin system in the #EU ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-07-27 00:46 proof of everything. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-07-03 15:42 Public petition to call them MinaFTs 😄 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-07-01 22:00 In summary, blockchain-based Tokenized Liquid Futures: - Eliminate intermediaries - Increase transparency - Enhance liquidity - Automate risk management - Provide flexible capital deployment Thus enabling a disruptive #DeFi use-case over its #TradFi equivalent 📖 Quoting from 2024-07-01 22:00: ┌─ The smart contract automates risk management on-chain by: │ │ 1️⃣ Enforcing margin requirements │ 2️⃣ Handling liquidations │ 3️⃣ Ensuring contract settlement │ │ Removing the need for trusted third parties and ensuring transparency 🛡️ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-07-01 22:00 The smart contract automates risk management on-chain by: 1️⃣ Enforcing margin requirements 2️⃣ Handling liquidations 3️⃣ Ensuring contract settlement Removing the need for trusted third parties and ensuring transparency 🛡️ 📖 Quoting from 2024-07-01 22:00: ┌─ The tokenization of the long and the short positions of the futures contact allows for trading of the positions in a fully decentralized manner, without the need for need for a clearing house │ │ This means no trusted entity or oracles are required, ensuring full decentralization └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-07-01 22:00 The tokenization of the long and the short positions of the futures contact allows for trading of the positions in a fully decentralized manner, without the need for need for a clearing house This means no trusted entity or oracles are required, ensuring full decentralization 📖 Quoting from 2024-07-01 22:00: ┌─ 🕑 The later this default occurs, the higher this loss is to the offending party │ │ This aligns with the principle of the time value of money └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-07-01 22:00 🕑 The later this default occurs, the higher this loss is to the offending party This aligns with the principle of the time value of money 📖 Quoting from 2024-07-01 22:00: ┌─ 🛟 The liquidation logic makes the initial required margin a collateral for all of the parties │ │ Failure to meet the obligations means a loss of the deposited margin/collateral, either in full or in part └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-07-01 22:00 🛟 The liquidation logic makes the initial required margin a collateral for all of the parties Failure to meet the obligations means a loss of the deposited margin/collateral, either in full or in part 📖 Quoting from 2024-07-01 22:00: ┌─ If a party fails to meet margin requirements, the smart contract: │ │ 1️⃣ Terminates the agreement │ 2️⃣ Transfers deposited assets to the compliant party │ 3️⃣ Applies penalties to the defaulting party │ │ This liquidation process is executed automatically on-chain 🤖 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-07-01 22:00 If a party fails to meet margin requirements, the smart contract: 1️⃣ Terminates the agreement 2️⃣ Transfers deposited assets to the compliant party 3️⃣ Applies penalties to the defaulting party This liquidation process is executed automatically on-chain 🤖 📖 Quoting from 2024-07-01 22:00: ┌─ Smart contract on the blockchain tracks: │ │ 1️⃣ Deposited amounts for each party │ 2️⃣ Required deposits at each checkpoint │ 3️⃣ Maturity date │ │ It uses this data to automatically enforce the increasing margin schedule 🔐 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-07-01 22:00 Smart contract on the blockchain tracks: 1️⃣ Deposited amounts for each party 2️⃣ Required deposits at each checkpoint 3️⃣ Maturity date It uses this data to automatically enforce the increasing margin schedule 🔐 📖 Quoting from 2024-07-01 22:00: ┌─ The margin in DeFi futures acts as: │ │ 1️⃣ Traditional margin, as in TradFi │ 2️⃣ Collateral hedging the counterparty risk │ 3️⃣ Under-collateralized assurance for a futures contract delivery │ │ Daily/periodic settlement can be incorporated into the dynamic margin requirements └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-07-01 22:00 The margin in DeFi futures acts as: 1️⃣ Traditional margin, as in TradFi 2️⃣ Collateral hedging the counterparty risk 3️⃣ Under-collateralized assurance for a futures contract delivery Daily/periodic settlement can be incorporated into the dynamic margin requirements 📖 Quoting from 2024-07-01 22:00: ┌─ Example of gradually increasing margin: │ │ - Day 1: 10% deposit required │ - Month 1: 25% required │ - Month 2: 50% required │ - Month 3 (Maturity): 100% required │ │ This flexibility allows parties to structure payments based on future cash flows 💰 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-07-01 22:00 Example of gradually increasing margin: - Day 1: 10% deposit required - Month 1: 25% required - Month 2: 50% required - Month 3 (Maturity): 100% required This flexibility allows parties to structure payments based on future cash flows 💰 📖 Quoting from 2024-07-01 22:00: ┌─ 📈 The margin requirements increase algorithmically over the contract's lifespan │ │ This ensurer both parties deposit their obligation in full by maturity, while allowing for partial collaterization │ │ Thus leveraging the time value of money, without the need for a trusted party └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-07-01 22:00 📈 The margin requirements increase algorithmically over the contract's lifespan This ensurer both parties deposit their obligation in full by maturity, while allowing for partial collaterization Thus leveraging the time value of money, without the need for a trusted party 📖 Quoting from 2024-07-01 22:00: ┌─ The DeFi margin for futures contracts differs from TradFi margins, by: │ │ 1️⃣ Gradually increasing over time │ 2️⃣ Ensuring full collateralization by maturity │ 3️⃣ Delaying full payment │ │ TradFi margin's main goal is to cover daily settlement gains/losses of the futures position └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-07-01 22:00 The DeFi margin for futures contracts differs from TradFi margins, by: 1️⃣ Gradually increasing over time 2️⃣ Ensuring full collateralization by maturity 3️⃣ Delaying full payment TradFi margin's main goal is to cover daily settlement gains/losses of the futures position 📖 Quoting from 2024-07-01 22:00: ┌─ Each position (long and short) is subdivided into several fungible tokens, which can be traded independently │ │ The native token support of Mina Protocol blockchain means that a smart contract encodes both: the futures agreement, and its tokenization 🪙 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-07-01 22:00 Each position (long and short) is subdivided into several fungible tokens, which can be traded independently The native token support of Mina Protocol blockchain means that a smart contract encodes both: the futures agreement, and its tokenization 🪙 📖 Quoting from 2024-07-01 22:00: ┌─ 🔐 Smart contracts on the blockchain enable full tokenization of futures contracts │ │ 📈 Both long and short positions become tokens, representing a "promise of future asset or money" │ │ This allows partial selling of positions, increasing liquidity, flexibility and reducing risk 💧 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-07-01 22:00 🔐 Smart contracts on the blockchain enable full tokenization of futures contracts 📈 Both long and short positions become tokens, representing a "promise of future asset or money" This allows partial selling of positions, increasing liquidity, flexibility and reducing risk 💧 📖 Quoting from 2024-07-01 22:00: ┌─ Futures pricing is deterministic, and its main goal is to prevent arbitrage: │ │ 💰 Futures Price = Spot Price * e^(rT) │ - r: risk-free rate (e.g., $MINA staking yield) │ - T: time to maturity │ │ This formula approximates pricing at maturity in both TradFi and DeFi 🧮 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-07-01 22:00 Futures pricing is deterministic, and its main goal is to prevent arbitrage: 💰 Futures Price = Spot Price * e^(rT) - r: risk-free rate (e.g., $MINA staking yield) - T: time to maturity This formula approximates pricing at maturity in both TradFi and DeFi 🧮 📖 Quoting from 2024-07-01 22:00: ┌─ 🏦 Traditional futures require centralized clearing houses │ │ On the blockchain, smart contracts eliminate intermediaries, enabling decentralized peer-to-peer agreements │ │ Example: A contract to trade 1000 $MINA for 2000 $USDC in 1 year, regardless of future $MINA price 📊 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-07-01 22:00 🏦 Traditional futures require centralized clearing houses On the blockchain, smart contracts eliminate intermediaries, enabling decentralized peer-to-peer agreements Example: A contract to trade 1000 $MINA for 2000 $USDC in 1 year, regardless of future $MINA price 📊 📖 Quoting from 2024-07-01 22:00: ┌─ Futures contracts serve crucial roles in finance: │ │ 1️⃣ Hedging against price volatility │ 2️⃣ Speculation on future asset prices │ 3️⃣ Price discovery for underlying assets │ │ Smart contracts on the blockchain will disrupt this $1T+ market. Here's how ⬇️ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-07-01 22:00 Futures contracts serve crucial roles in finance: 1️⃣ Hedging against price volatility 2️⃣ Speculation on future asset prices 3️⃣ Price discovery for underlying assets Smart contracts on the blockchain will disrupt this $1T+ market. Here's how ⬇️ 📖 Quoting from 2024-07-01 22:00: ┌─ 🚀 Exploring Tokenized Liquid Futures Contracts │ │ A deep dive into how they can be implemented on Mina Protocol blockchain without oracles or trusted intermediaries │ │ Covering technical aspects, use cases, and innovations of this DeFi derivative over TradFi solutions └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-07-01 22:00 🚀 Exploring Tokenized Liquid Futures Contracts A deep dive into how they can be implemented on Mina Protocol blockchain without oracles or trusted intermediaries Covering technical aspects, use cases, and innovations of this DeFi derivative over TradFi solutions ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-23 16:28 If you think you understand futures contracts, you must learn bond futures Besides some differences, like dynamic settlement price, you will quickly realize how much #DeFi improves over #TradFi The future of finance is on-chain Simplicity, transparency & efficiency http ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-12 18:16 📚 Learning how derivatives are priced will make you realize that all the models are based on financing with an interest rate (IR). Future value of a derivative is discounted with an IR. Where does this extra money come from? 🔎 Hint: you may see it manifest as #inflation 😉 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-10 12:08 Forward rates compute the borrowing cost of money for a future period. They're derived from the existing interest rates in the market. Useful to compare investments, arbitrage on lend/borrow positions and even predict future inflation value Here's the concept visualized 👇 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-07 10:18 And the first rate cut comes from the European Central Bank (#ECB) Federal Reserve (#FED) coming up next A few days ago I tweeted about how a rate cut is imminent, as suggested by the Treasury Bond rates falling below the overnight exchange rate👇 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-04 12:48 Reaaaaady. Let's go hardfork ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-03 20:59 Besides inflation there is also discounting, which measures the time value of money Discounting states that money today is worth more than tomorrow, since it can be invested to earn an interest You can compute today's value of future money using the formula below 👇 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-02 23:03 🔴 Every time the Treasury Bond rate (#DGS10 / #US10Y) raises above the Fed Funds Rate (#FEDFUNDS / #EFFR), the Fed Funds Rate decreases dramatically Historically, this has always been the case and this is exactly what's happening now Expect a rate cut from the #FED very soon ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-02 16:19 Treasury rates (Treasury Bills & Bonds) are risk-free, but they do not represent the risk-free rate, as they have artificial incentives. The risk-free rate must represent the true cost of borrowing money. Overnight exchange rates are a much better measure of the risk-free rate. http ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-01 11:27 👉 Learn more about Zero-Knowledge Proofs, their applications, and how they redefine privacy: 📍 zkLocus: https://zklocus.dev/ 📖 Full article: https://illya.sh/blog/posts/privacy-is-a-myth-without-zero-knowledge-proofs/ 💜 Let's build a Web3 future where privacy is the default, not an afterthought 📖 Quoting from 2024-06-01 11:27: ┌─ 🛡️ The result is an e-commerce platform that respects end-user privacy without sacrificing functionality 🎉 │ │ ❌ There is no need to trade personal data for convenience │ │ 🙌 ZKP, Mina Protocol blockchain and zkLocus enable us to have both! └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-01 11:27 🛡️ The result is an e-commerce platform that respects end-user privacy without sacrificing functionality 🎉 ❌ There is no need to trade personal data for convenience 🙌 ZKP, Mina Protocol blockchain and zkLocus enable us to have both! 📖 Quoting from 2024-06-01 11:27: ┌─ 🔗 The process leverages several ZKP building blocks: │ │ ⚙️ zkSNARKs for succinct, verifiable proofs │ 🌿 Merkle Trees for efficient data storage │ 🔐 Cyrptographic Commitments for data integrity └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-01 11:27 🔗 The process leverages several ZKP building blocks: ⚙️ zkSNARKs for succinct, verifiable proofs 🌿 Merkle Trees for efficient data storage 🔐 Cyrptographic Commitments for data integrity 📖 Quoting from 2024-06-01 11:27: ┌─ 🟣 This entire solution can be implemented on Mina Protocol blockchain! 💪 │ │ 💻 $MINA's zkApps enable efficient, scalable and verifiable computation powered by zkSNARKs │ │ 📍 Combined with zkLocus for geolocation proofs, we have all of the necessary components └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-01 11:27 🟣 This entire solution can be implemented on Mina Protocol blockchain! 💪 💻 $MINA's zkApps enable efficient, scalable and verifiable computation powered by zkSNARKs 📍 Combined with zkLocus for geolocation proofs, we have all of the necessary components 📖 Quoting from 2024-06-01 11:27: ┌─ 🔐 Throughout this process, your name and address remain hidden from the e-commerce platform. 😌 │ │ 🌍 The platform only knows a broad area, not your specific location │ │ 🪪 The processing center only gets your exact info when you choose to reveal it └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-01 11:27 🔐 Throughout this process, your name and address remain hidden from the e-commerce platform. 😌 🌍 The platform only knows a broad area, not your specific location 🪪 The processing center only gets your exact info when you choose to reveal it 📖 Quoting from 2024-06-01 11:27: ┌─ 5️⃣ You provide the decryption key to the center to reveal address │ │ 📦 The package then gets shipped & delivered to the user └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-01 11:27 5️⃣ You provide the decryption key to the center to reveal address 📦 The package then gets shipped & delivered to the user 📖 Quoting from 2024-06-01 11:27: ┌─ 🎁 Here's how zkLocus enables private shipping: │ │ 1️⃣ You creates a zkLocus proof of their location │ 2️⃣ Proof is associated with encrypted name & address │ 3️⃣ E-commerce platform gets general area, but not exact info │ 4️⃣ Package is sent to a processing center in the general area │ 5️⃣👇 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-01 11:27 🎁 Here's how zkLocus enables private shipping: 1️⃣ You creates a zkLocus proof of their location 2️⃣ Proof is associated with encrypted name & address 3️⃣ E-commerce platform gets general area, but not exact info 4️⃣ Package is sent to a processing center in the general area 5️⃣👇 📖 Quoting from 2024-06-01 11:27: ┌─ 🔐 How can we conceal personal info like name and address? │ │ 📍This is where zkLocus comes in! │ │ 🌍 zkLocus allows users to prove they're in a certain area without revealing exact coordinates │ │ 🏠 It's like saying "I'm somewhere in New York" without revealing your exact address └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-01 11:27 🔐 How can we conceal personal info like name and address? 📍This is where zkLocus comes in! 🌍 zkLocus allows users to prove they're in a certain area without revealing exact coordinates 🏠 It's like saying "I'm somewhere in New York" without revealing your exact address 📖 Quoting from 2024-06-01 11:27: ┌─ 👀 Private search quries are great, but can we go a step further? │ │ 🪪 Is it possible to shop online without revealing any of your identity and shipping data to the e-commerce platform? │ │ 🤯 The answer is YES! └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-01 11:27 👀 Private search quries are great, but can we go a step further? 🪪 Is it possible to shop online without revealing any of your identity and shipping data to the e-commerce platform? 🤯 The answer is YES! 📖 Quoting from 2024-06-01 11:27: ┌─ 🕵️‍♀️ Such an approach allows us to search for data with a centralized provider without revealing our exact search queries │ │ 🔎 In the end, the provider has enough information to provide us with relevant results, without being able to track us └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-01 11:27 🕵️‍♀️ Such an approach allows us to search for data with a centralized provider without revealing our exact search queries 🔎 In the end, the provider has enough information to provide us with relevant results, without being able to track us 📖 Quoting from 2024-06-01 11:27: ┌─ 🧩 Here's how private search queries work: │ │ 1️⃣ User runs a zkML computation to abstract their query │ 2️⃣ The abstracted query is sent to the e-commerce platform │ 3️⃣ Platform returns relevant results, which are filtered locally by the user └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-01 11:27 🧩 Here's how private search queries work: 1️⃣ User runs a zkML computation to abstract their query 2️⃣ The abstracted query is sent to the e-commerce platform 3️⃣ Platform returns relevant results, which are filtered locally by the user 📖 Quoting from 2024-06-01 11:27: ┌─ ❗️Yes, and Zero-Knowledge Proofs are the answer❗️ │ │ 📜 Instead of sharing raw data, ZKP allow us to share proofs about our data │ │ 🤯 Now, you can search for products to buy without revealing your exact queries! └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-01 11:27 ❗️Yes, and Zero-Knowledge Proofs are the answer❗️ 📜 Instead of sharing raw data, ZKP allow us to share proofs about our data 🤯 Now, you can search for products to buy without revealing your exact queries! 📖 Quoting from 2024-06-01 11:27: ┌─ 💰 Wether you are online shopping on Amazon, eBay, AliExpress or any other e-commerce platform, you are sharing your personal data with them. │ │ 🤔 But does it have to be this way? │ │ ✨ Is a fully private online shopping experience possible? └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-01 11:27 💰 Wether you are online shopping on Amazon, eBay, AliExpress or any other e-commerce platform, you are sharing your personal data with them. 🤔 But does it have to be this way? ✨ Is a fully private online shopping experience possible? 📖 Quoting from 2024-06-01 11:27: ┌─ 🔍 The challenge with e-commerce privacy lies in two main areas: │ │ 1️⃣ Keeping search queries private 🔒 │ 2️⃣ Protecting personal info like name and address 🙅‍♂️ │ │ Traditional platforms require us to trust them with this data └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-01 11:27 🔍 The challenge with e-commerce privacy lies in two main areas: 1️⃣ Keeping search queries private 🔒 2️⃣ Protecting personal info like name and address 🙅‍♂️ Traditional platforms require us to trust them with this data 📖 Quoting from 2024-06-01 11:26: ┌─ 🛒 E-commerce & Privacy - Myth or Reality? 🔐 │ │ 💻 Online shopping without revealing your personal data? │ │ 🚀 Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP), zkLocus and Mina Protocol blockchain enable just that │ │ https://illya.sh/blog/posts/privacy-is-a-myth-without-zero-knowledge-proofs/ │ │ Here's how 🧵👇 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-06-01 11:26 🛒 E-commerce & Privacy - Myth or Reality? 🔐 💻 Online shopping without revealing your personal data? 🚀 Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP), zkLocus and Mina Protocol blockchain enable just that https://illya.sh/blog/posts/privacy-is-a-myth-without-zero-knowledge-proofs/ Here's how 🧵👇 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-30 18:57 😳 ZKP will redefine what you know about computation and privacy 📍 This is what we are doing at zkLocus, by turning geolocation into a RWA 🔗 To learn more, visit https://zklocus.dev/ 📖 Quoting from 2024-05-30 18:57: ┌─ 🪄 This is just one example of what is possible with ZeroKnowledge Proofs │ │ 📚 It was taken from my article "Privacy Is A Myth. Unless You're Using Zero-Knowledge Proofs" 👇 │ │ https://illya.sh/blog/posts/privacy-is-a-myth-without-zero-knowledge-proofs/ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-30 18:57 🪄 This is just one example of what is possible with ZeroKnowledge Proofs 📚 It was taken from my article "Privacy Is A Myth. Unless You're Using Zero-Knowledge Proofs" 👇 https://illya.sh/blog/posts/privacy-is-a-myth-without-zero-knowledge-proofs/ 📖 Quoting from 2024-05-30 18:57: ┌─ 🚨 By using Mina Protocol as a public layer for computation proofs, we create an auditable & transparent system 🕵️‍♀️ │ │ Anyone can verify that the cameras are operating as promised, without misusing the video data 🔍 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-30 18:57 🚨 By using Mina Protocol as a public layer for computation proofs, we create an auditable & transparent system 🕵️‍♀️ Anyone can verify that the cameras are operating as promised, without misusing the video data 🔍 📖 Quoting from 2024-05-30 18:57: ┌─ 📋 Here's how Mina Protocol blockchain fits into the picture: │ │ 1️⃣ zkSNARK circuits verifying camera code execution are stored on Mina │ 2️⃣ Commitments & ZKP circuits to the zkML model are also stored on the blockchain │ 3️⃣ All proofs from cameras are submitted & verified against them └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-30 18:57 📋 Here's how Mina Protocol blockchain fits into the picture: 1️⃣ zkSNARK circuits verifying camera code execution are stored on Mina 2️⃣ Commitments & ZKP circuits to the zkML model are also stored on the blockchain 3️⃣ All proofs from cameras are submitted & verified against them 📖 Quoting from 2024-05-30 18:57: ┌─ 🟣 Mina Protocol can implement the foundational layer 🚀 │ │ Verification keys that attest to the correct execution of the camera's code can be stored on $MINA 🔑 │ │ In practice, this involves commitments and ZKP circuits to the zkML model, thus ensuring the right one is used 🧠 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-30 18:57 🟣 Mina Protocol can implement the foundational layer 🚀 Verification keys that attest to the correct execution of the camera's code can be stored on $MINA 🔑 In practice, this involves commitments and ZKP circuits to the zkML model, thus ensuring the right one is used 🧠 📖 Quoting from 2024-05-30 18:57: ┌─ 🔐 zkSNARKs/zkSTARKs can be used to create ZK proofs that attest to the correct execution of the camera's code 📸 │ │ 👮‍♀️ These proofs, representing an observation of a computation, ensure that non-suspicious video is discarded, thus preserving privacy │ │ 👉 Do not trust, verify 👈 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-30 18:57 🔐 zkSNARKs/zkSTARKs can be used to create ZK proofs that attest to the correct execution of the camera's code 📸 👮‍♀️ These proofs, representing an observation of a computation, ensure that non-suspicious video is discarded, thus preserving privacy 👉 Do not trust, verify 👈 📖 Quoting from 2024-05-30 18:57: ┌─ 🧩 Here's how a ZKP-powered surveillance system works: │ │ 1️⃣ Cameras feed live video into a zkML model │ 2️⃣ The model labels data as "suspicious" or "non-suspicious" │ 3️⃣ Only "suspicious" footage is stored & reported │ 4️⃣ The zkML model is public, ensuring transparency └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-30 18:57 🧩 Here's how a ZKP-powered surveillance system works: 1️⃣ Cameras feed live video into a zkML model 2️⃣ The model labels data as "suspicious" or "non-suspicious" 3️⃣ Only "suspicious" footage is stored & reported 4️⃣ The zkML model is public, ensuring transparency 📖 Quoting from 2024-05-30 18:57: ┌─ 🔍 The key lies in the verifiable computation model of Zero-Knowledge Proofs 🔑 │ │ Instead of trusting third-parties not to misuse data, we rely on cryptographic proofs to ensure privacy 💪 │ │ It's not about faith, but rather mathematical certainty 🧮 │ │ 🔗 https://illya.sh/blog/posts/zksnark-zkstark-verifiable-computation-model-blockchain/ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-30 18:57 🔍 The key lies in the verifiable computation model of Zero-Knowledge Proofs 🔑 Instead of trusting third-parties not to misuse data, we rely on cryptographic proofs to ensure privacy 💪 It's not about faith, but rather mathematical certainty 🧮 🔗 https://illya.sh/blog/posts/zksnark-zkstark-verifiable-computation-model-blockchain/ 📖 Quoting from 2024-05-30 18:57: ┌─ 📹 Imagine a global network of video cameras, monitoring every corner, every alley, even inside your home 🏠 │ │ Sounds like a privacy nightmare, right? 😨 │ │ Not necessarily! 😮 │ │ With ZKP, we can mathematically guarantee that private data is never stored or shared! 🔐 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-30 18:57 📹 Imagine a global network of video cameras, monitoring every corner, every alley, even inside your home 🏠 Sounds like a privacy nightmare, right? 😨 Not necessarily! 😮 With ZKP, we can mathematically guarantee that private data is never stored or shared! 🔐 📖 Quoting from 2024-05-30 18:57: ┌─ 🌍 Imagine 24/7 global video surveillance that doesn't compromise privacy │ │ 🤯 Sounds impossible? │ │ 😎 Zero-Knowledge Proofs disagree │ │ Here's why 🧵👇 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-30 18:57 🌍 Imagine 24/7 global video surveillance that doesn't compromise privacy 🤯 Sounds impossible? 😎 Zero-Knowledge Proofs disagree Here's why 🧵👇 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-27 14:13 Linguistic vocal communication is such a wild concept 🤯 Like, I can take an abstract concept that I have in my mind, transform it into vibrations, transmit it wirelessly over air and have another individual parse it back into a similar abstract concept, now in their mind ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-26 13:02 👉 Learn more about ZKPs & privacy: - zkLocus: https://zklocus.dev/ - zkSafeZones: https://zklocus.dev/zkSafeZones/ - Full article: https://illya.sh/blog/posts/privacy-is-a-myth-without-zero-knowledge-proofs/ Let's make privacy the default, not an afterthought 🌟 📖 Quoting from 2024-05-26 13:01: ┌─ 🗣️ Privacy is a fundamental human right, and digital privacy is not an exception 📜 │ │ With Mina Protocol blockchain and ZKP solutions like zkLocus, we can build a future where privacy is the default 🙌 │ │ As the Web3 community, this is our mission & responsibility 💪 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-26 13:01 🗣️ Privacy is a fundamental human right, and digital privacy is not an exception 📜 With Mina Protocol blockchain and ZKP solutions like zkLocus, we can build a future where privacy is the default 🙌 As the Web3 community, this is our mission & responsibility 💪 📖 Quoting from 2024-05-26 13:01: ┌─ 📹 Even 24/7 global video surveillance can be privacy-preserving with ZKP! 🌍 │ │ By combining zkML and verifiable computation, cameras can detect suspicious activity without storing private data 🕵️‍♀️ │ │ No, it's not magic. It's mathematics 🔐 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-26 13:01 📹 Even 24/7 global video surveillance can be privacy-preserving with ZKP! 🌍 By combining zkML and verifiable computation, cameras can detect suspicious activity without storing private data 🕵️‍♀️ No, it's not magic. It's mathematics 🔐 📖 Quoting from 2024-05-26 13:01: ┌─ 🔍 Imagine a search engine that never sees your raw queries, or a social network that keeps your connections hidden 😲 │ │ With ZKP, it's not just possible, but practical! 🎉 │ │ zkLocus, powered by Mina Protocol blockchain, is turning private geolocation into reality 📍 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-26 13:01 🔍 Imagine a search engine that never sees your raw queries, or a social network that keeps your connections hidden 😲 With ZKP, it's not just possible, but practical! 🎉 zkLocus, powered by Mina Protocol blockchain, is turning private geolocation into reality 📍 📖 Quoting from 2024-05-26 13:01: ┌─ 🌍 With ZKPs, we can build privacy-preserving: 🏗️ │ │ - Search engines 🔍 │ - Social networks 👥 │ - E-commerce platforms 🛒 │ - Even 24/7 global video surveillance! 📹 │ │ All without compromising functionality, business or individual privacy 💪 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-26 13:01 🌍 With ZKPs, we can build privacy-preserving: 🏗️ - Search engines 🔍 - Social networks 👥 - E-commerce platforms 🛒 - Even 24/7 global video surveillance! 📹 All without compromising functionality, business or individual privacy 💪 📖 Quoting from 2024-05-26 13:01: ┌─ 🔐 ZKPs remove the need to trust third parties for privacy. 🙅‍♂️ │ │ Instead, we rely on mathematical guarantees 🧮 │ │ This allows us to retain full custody & control over our data while enjoying digital services 😌 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-26 13:01 🔐 ZKPs remove the need to trust third parties for privacy. 🙅‍♂️ Instead, we rely on mathematical guarantees 🧮 This allows us to retain full custody & control over our data while enjoying digital services 😌 📖 Quoting from 2024-05-26 13:01: ┌─ 🌿 Merkle Trees, MPC, and homomorphic encryption complement ZKPs. 🍃 │ │ - Merkle Trees: Efficient & private data storage 📚 │ - MPC: Secure multi-party computation 🤝 │ - Homomorphic Encryption: Computation on encrypted data 🔒 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-26 13:01 🌿 Merkle Trees, MPC, and homomorphic encryption complement ZKPs. 🍃 - Merkle Trees: Efficient & private data storage 📚 - MPC: Secure multi-party computation 🤝 - Homomorphic Encryption: Computation on encrypted data 🔒 📖 Quoting from 2024-05-26 13:01: ┌─ 🔐 How does Mina Protocol blockchain fit into this? 🤔 │ │ $MINA serves as the foundation for ZKP apps, thanks to its programmable zkApps 🚀 │ │ It uses recursive zkSNARKs to create proofs of arbitrary computations, thus serving as the foundation of privacy solutions 💪 │ │ It's proof of everything └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-26 13:01 🔐 How does Mina Protocol blockchain fit into this? 🤔 $MINA serves as the foundation for ZKP apps, thanks to its programmable zkApps 🚀 It uses recursive zkSNARKs to create proofs of arbitrary computations, thus serving as the foundation of privacy solutions 💪 It's proof of everything 📖 Quoting from 2024-05-26 13:01: ┌─ 🔍 Solutions like zkLocus, zkSafeZones, zkML, and zkVM leverage ZKPs for privacy🛡️ │ │ - zkLocus: Private geolocation sharing on Mina Protocol blockchain 📍 │ - zkSafeZones: Civilian protection in warzones 🏥 │ - zkML: Private machine learning 🤖 │ - zkVM: Verifiable computation 💻 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-26 13:01 🔍 Solutions like zkLocus, zkSafeZones, zkML, and zkVM leverage ZKPs for privacy🛡️ - zkLocus: Private geolocation sharing on Mina Protocol blockchain 📍 - zkSafeZones: Civilian protection in warzones 🏥 - zkML: Private machine learning 🤖 - zkVM: Verifiable computation 💻 📖 Quoting from 2024-05-26 13:01: ┌─ 💡 Zero-Knowledge Proofs fix digital privacy 🌅 │ │ Instead of protecting sensitive data after sharing, ZKPs enable sharing data in an inherently private manner 🔐 │ │ By turning data into computation, ZKPs abstract it to preserve privacy 🧩 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-26 13:01 💡 Zero-Knowledge Proofs fix digital privacy 🌅 Instead of protecting sensitive data after sharing, ZKPs enable sharing data in an inherently private manner 🔐 By turning data into computation, ZKPs abstract it to preserve privacy 🧩 📖 Quoting from 2024-05-26 13:01: ┌─ 💡 The problem with digital privacy lies not in how data is stored & shared, but what data is shared 🤔 │ │ Even with encryption, once sensitive data leaves your device, it's compromised 😱 │ │ But what if we could share data in an inherently private manner? 🤯 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-26 13:01 💡 The problem with digital privacy lies not in how data is stored & shared, but what data is shared 🤔 Even with encryption, once sensitive data leaves your device, it's compromised 😱 But what if we could share data in an inherently private manner? 🤯 📖 Quoting from 2024-05-26 13:01: ┌─ 🚨 PRIVACY IS A MYTH! 🕵️‍♂️ │ │ Digital privacy is fundamentally unfeasible, unless we rely on verifiable computation constructs like Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP) 🔐 │ │ A thread 🧵 on why ZKPs are the key to true digital privacy 👇 │ │ https://illya.sh/blog/posts/privacy-is-a-myth-without-zero-knowledge-proofs/ │ │ Privacy ZeroKnowledge Web3 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-26 13:01 🚨 PRIVACY IS A MYTH! 🕵️‍♂️ Digital privacy is fundamentally unfeasible, unless we rely on verifiable computation constructs like Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP) 🔐 A thread 🧵 on why ZKPs are the key to true digital privacy 👇 https://illya.sh/blog/posts/privacy-is-a-myth-without-zero-knowledge-proofs/ Privacy ZeroKnowledge Web3 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-24 11:24 Advanced prompt injection technique for GitHub Copilot GPT-4 😆 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-23 10:25 GPT-4 outperforms both, carbon-based financial analysts (humans) and purpose-specific ANNs While the former is understandable, the latter is surprising. The broader context of an LLM appears to be more important than the specialized multi-dimensionality of an ANN ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-20 15:03 🔴 GDP is a useless metric 🔴 A country may resort to debt, inject that debt into the economy, and see nominal GDP figures raise, without producing value. This is a recipe for an economic bubble Debt-to-GDP ratio presents a much clearer picture (smaller is better)👇 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-20 14:37 I invite you to check your country's net exports as a % of GDP and be surprised 😳 GDP comprises of numerous measures, some of which don't have any relation to the produced value Net exports provide a more objective measure of self-sustainability and relative value ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-05-14 15:36 Mina's Got Recursion ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-29 22:44 Additional insights from a practical perspective can be found here 👇 🔗 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-28 19:28 Read the full article to dive deeper into how the BRICS digital currency can be realized as a cryptocurrency on a public blockchain. 📖 🔗 https://illya.sh/blog/posts/brics-cryptocurrency-blockchain/ Let's discuss! Share your thoughts below🗣️ 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-28 19:28: ┌─ 🌟 By embracing public blockchains and ZeroKnowledge technologies, the BRICS digital currency can pioneer a new era of finance🔮 │ │ A more efficient, interoperable, decentralized, and inclusive financial system aligned with Web3 principles 🌍 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-28 19:28 🌟 By embracing public blockchains and ZeroKnowledge technologies, the BRICS digital currency can pioneer a new era of finance🔮 A more efficient, interoperable, decentralized, and inclusive financial system aligned with Web3 principles 🌍 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-28 19:28: ┌─ 🧩 Implementing the BRICS currency on a public blockchain reduces cost & complexity │ │ The dynamic supply is controlled by smart contracts, while ZKPs bridge data from arbitrary sources 🌉 │ │ Demand is driven by incentives for participating in the BRICS economic network 💰 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-28 19:28 🧩 Implementing the BRICS currency on a public blockchain reduces cost & complexity The dynamic supply is controlled by smart contracts, while ZKPs bridge data from arbitrary sources 🌉 Demand is driven by incentives for participating in the BRICS economic network 💰 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-28 19:28: ┌─ 🌍 Integrating zkLocus allows associating geolocation data with each BRICS transaction while preserving user privacy 🔒 │ │ zkLocus turns geolocation into a programmable real-world asset (RWA), enabling location-based fees and taxation📍 │ │ ✨ Native on MinaProtocol └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-28 19:28 🌍 Integrating zkLocus allows associating geolocation data with each BRICS transaction while preserving user privacy 🔒 zkLocus turns geolocation into a programmable real-world asset (RWA), enabling location-based fees and taxation📍 ✨ Native on MinaProtocol ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-28 19:28 💸 The dynamic supply of the BRICS currency is defined by a formula: M = ForT + FDI + PI + ForEx + G&EX + InterSec + Der + ForDeposit + EuroCurrency + MTransfer + Etc. This can be automated using smart contracts on the blockchain 🤖 Like Algorithmic stablecoins and Uniswap 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-28 19:28: ┌─ 🔍 Let's explore how the BRICS currency can leverage these technologies: │ │ ✅ Dynamic supply mechanism via smart contracts │ ✅ Legal compliance on-chain using ZKPs │ ✅ Integration with DeFi and zkLocus for authenticated private geolocation │ │ 👉 A cryptocurrency for Web3 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-28 19:28 🔍 Let's explore how the BRICS currency can leverage these technologies: ✅ Dynamic supply mechanism via smart contracts ✅ Legal compliance on-chain using ZKPs ✅ Integration with DeFi and zkLocus for authenticated private geolocation 👉 A cryptocurrency for Web3 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-28 19:28: ┌─ 💡 While the original paper suggests the impossibility of realizing the BRICS currency as a cryptocurrency, we'll challenge it 🤔 │ │ A public blockchain with SmartContracts, combined with Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP), provides a natural fit for the implementation 🧩 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-28 19:28 💡 While the original paper suggests the impossibility of realizing the BRICS currency as a cryptocurrency, we'll challenge it 🤔 A public blockchain with SmartContracts, combined with Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP), provides a natural fit for the implementation 🧩 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-28 19:28: ┌─ 🌍 The BRICS digital currency aims to integrate with existing monetary systems, creating a unified economic area for member nations 🤝 │ │ Its value is algorithmically derived from various economic factors of the participating countries 📈 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-28 19:28 🌍 The BRICS digital currency aims to integrate with existing monetary systems, creating a unified economic area for member nations 🤝 Its value is algorithmically derived from various economic factors of the participating countries 📈 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-28 19:28: ┌─ 🚀 BRICS Digital Currency: Cryptocurrency on a Public Blockchain 🪙 │ │ In this article, we explore how the BRICS currency can be implemented on a public blockchain and challenge the claims made in "Digital Money Options for the BRICS" for Web3 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-28 19:28 🚀 BRICS Digital Currency: Cryptocurrency on a Public Blockchain 🪙 In this article, we explore how the BRICS currency can be implemented on a public blockchain and challenge the claims made in "Digital Money Options for the BRICS" for Web3 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-22 12:13 Get ready for June 👀 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 20:24 That's it for technical deep dive into RandoMina and its 01JS implementation on Mina Protocol blockchain ! 🤿 For more details, check out the source code and tests on GitHub. ⭐️ Feel free to ask any questions or share your thoughts! 💬 🔗 https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-15 20:24: ┌─ 1️⃣2️⃣ In summary, RandoMina leverages ZK proofs, $Mina's VRF `stakingEpochData.seed.value`, and a combination of network state, sender info, and local nonces to provide secure, verifiable, and infinite randomness for dAppss 🌟 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 20:24 1️⃣2️⃣ In summary, RandoMina leverages ZK proofs, $Mina's VRF `stakingEpochData.seed.value`, and a combination of network state, sender info, and local nonces to provide secure, verifiable, and infinite randomness for dAppss 🌟 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-15 20:24: ┌─ 1️⃣1️⃣ Generating a random number involves: │ │ 1. Preparing public (Network State, Sender) and private (Nonce) inputs │ 2. Generating a proof using `RandomNumberObservationCircuit` │ 3. Verifying the proof and network state with `RandoMinaContract` │ │ Code & Tests: https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 20:24 1️⃣1️⃣ Generating a random number involves: 1. Preparing public (Network State, Sender) and private (Nonce) inputs 2. Generating a proof using `RandomNumberObservationCircuit` 3. Verifying the proof and network state with `RandoMinaContract` Code & Tests: https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-15 20:24: ┌─ 🔟 Across different epochs, the same identity generates distinct random numbers: │ │ 🌐 Network State changes with each new epoch │ 🆕 Updated Network State is combined with Sender-Specific Nonce and Local Seed/Nonce │ ➡️ Guarantees diff numbers for the same identity across epochs! ⏰ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 20:24 🔟 Across different epochs, the same identity generates distinct random numbers: 🌐 Network State changes with each new epoch 🆕 Updated Network State is combined with Sender-Specific Nonce and Local Seed/Nonce ➡️ Guarantees diff numbers for the same identity across epochs! ⏰ 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-15 20:24: ┌─ 9️⃣ For the same identity, using different Local Seed/Nonce values: │ │ 🔄 Varying the Local Seed/Nonce │ 🔗 While keeping the Sender-Specific Nonce and Network State constant │ ➡️ Produces unique random numbers for the same identity within an epoch! 🪄 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 20:24 9️⃣ For the same identity, using different Local Seed/Nonce values: 🔄 Varying the Local Seed/Nonce 🔗 While keeping the Sender-Specific Nonce and Network State constant ➡️ Produces unique random numbers for the same identity within an epoch! 🪄 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-15 20:24: ┌─ 8️⃣ When two identities generate random numbers using RandoMina: │ │ ✅ Sender-Specific Nonce is unique due to different public keys │ ✅ Combining unique Sender-Specific Nonce with Network State and Local Seed/Nonce │ ➡️ Always results in different random numbers for each identity! 🎉 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 20:24 8️⃣ When two identities generate random numbers using RandoMina: ✅ Sender-Specific Nonce is unique due to different public keys ✅ Combining unique Sender-Specific Nonce with Network State and Local Seed/Nonce ➡️ Always results in different random numbers for each identity! 🎉 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-15 20:24: ┌─ 7️⃣ Here's how RandoMina ensures unique random numbers! 🕵️ │ │ - Two identities (public keys) will always generate different random numbers 🔑 │ - Same identity with different local seeds produces unique numbers 🌱 │ - Same identity across different epochs generates distinct numbers 📅 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 20:24 7️⃣ Here's how RandoMina ensures unique random numbers! 🕵️ - Two identities (public keys) will always generate different random numbers 🔑 - Same identity with different local seeds produces unique numbers 🌱 - Same identity across different epochs generates distinct numbers 📅 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-15 20:24: ┌─ 6️⃣ RandoMina's smart contract, `RandoMinaContract`, verifies the computation and ensures the claimed network state matches the current epoch. ✅ │ │ It's designed to be used or integrated by other contracts needing secure randomness. 🧩 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 20:24 6️⃣ RandoMina's smart contract, `RandoMinaContract`, verifies the computation and ensures the claimed network state matches the current epoch. ✅ It's designed to be used or integrated by other contracts needing secure randomness. 🧩 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-15 20:24: ┌─ 5️⃣ The Local Seed/Nonce allows generating multiple random numbers per epoch for each sender. 🎲 │ │ By varying this private nonce, an infinite number of pseudo-random numbers can be generated within a single epoch. ♾️ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 20:24 5️⃣ The Local Seed/Nonce allows generating multiple random numbers per epoch for each sender. 🎲 By varying this private nonce, an infinite number of pseudo-random numbers can be generated within a single epoch. ♾️ 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-15 20:24: ┌─ 4️⃣ The Sender-Specific Nonce is derived from the sender's public key, ensuring unique (pseudo)random numbers across the network. 🌍 │ │ It's computed by Poseidon-hashing the public key, adding a global uniqueness component. 🔑 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 20:24 4️⃣ The Sender-Specific Nonce is derived from the sender's public key, ensuring unique (pseudo)random numbers across the network. 🌍 It's computed by Poseidon-hashing the public key, adding a global uniqueness component. 🔑 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-15 20:24: ┌─ 3️⃣ Using `stakingEpochData.seed.value` as part of the PRNG seed ensures that random numbers are tied to the current epoch, preventing manipulation and guaranteeing freshness. 🌿 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 20:24 3️⃣ Using `stakingEpochData.seed.value` as part of the PRNG seed ensures that random numbers are tied to the current epoch, preventing manipulation and guaranteeing freshness. 🌿 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-15 20:24: ┌─ 2️⃣ To ensure freshness, RandoMina leverages $Mina's VRF (Verifiable Random Function) values, specifically `stakingEpochData.seed.value`. 🔐 │ │ This value is updated with each new staking epoch, providing a unique seed for each epoch. 📅 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 20:24 2️⃣ To ensure freshness, RandoMina leverages $Mina's VRF (Verifiable Random Function) values, specifically `stakingEpochData.seed.value`. 🔐 This value is updated with each new staking epoch, providing a unique seed for each epoch. 📅 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-15 20:24: ┌─ 1️⃣ RandoMina uses Zero-Knowledge proofs to ensure random numbers are provable, fresh, and trustless. It combines: │ │ - Network State 🌐 │ - Sender-Specific Nonce 🔒 │ - Local Seed/Nonce 🌱 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 20:24 1️⃣ RandoMina uses Zero-Knowledge proofs to ensure random numbers are provable, fresh, and trustless. It combines: - Network State 🌐 - Sender-Specific Nonce 🔒 - Local Seed/Nonce 🌱 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-15 20:24: ┌─ 🧵 Let's dive into the technical details of RandoMina: a protocol for provable random number generation on Mina Protocol blockchain blockchain written in 01JS! 🔢🔐 │ │ 💡 Powering zkLocus │ │ 🔗 GitHub: https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina/ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 20:24 🧵 Let's dive into the technical details of RandoMina: a protocol for provable random number generation on Mina Protocol blockchain blockchain written in 01JS! 🔢🔐 💡 Powering zkLocus 🔗 GitHub: https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina/ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 18:58 🙌 RandoMina is an open-source effort to empower the $MINA community with secure, provable randomness! 💪 🤝 I welcome your feedback, contributions & ideas to iterate on this MVP! 🌟 🐦 Give zkLocus a shoutout - let's build together! 🚀 ZK ZKP Web3 Blockchain Mina 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-15 18:58: ┌─ 👨‍💻 For developers eager to dive in, the https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina on the GitHub repo has all the juicy details! 📚 │ │ 💻 Example usage │ 🛠️ Building instructions │ 🧪 Testing guide │ 📊 Coverage reports │ │ 🔗 Dive in here: https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 18:58 👨‍💻 For developers eager to dive in, the https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina on the GitHub repo has all the juicy details! 📚 💻 Example usage 🛠️ Building instructions 🧪 Testing guide 📊 Coverage reports 🔗 Dive in here: https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-15 18:58: ┌─ 🎲 RandoMina is designed as a SmartContract in O1JS, making it easy to integrate with your zkApps & dApps! 🛠️ │ │ 🚀 Deploy it as a standalone contract or incorporate it into your custom solution 💫 │ │ 🔗 https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 18:58 🎲 RandoMina is designed as a SmartContract in O1JS, making it easy to integrate with your zkApps & dApps! 🛠️ 🚀 Deploy it as a standalone contract or incorporate it into your custom solution 💫 🔗 https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-15 18:58: ┌─ 🧩 How does it work? │ │ 🌐 RandoMina cryptographically combines: │ │ 1️⃣ Network State │ 2️⃣ Sender-Specific Nonce │ 3️⃣ Local Seed/Nonce │ │ 🔢 This ensures fresh, unique & unpredictable random numbers for each user! 🎉 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 18:58 🧩 How does it work? 🌐 RandoMina cryptographically combines: 1️⃣ Network State 2️⃣ Sender-Specific Nonce 3️⃣ Local Seed/Nonce 🔢 This ensures fresh, unique & unpredictable random numbers for each user! 🎉 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-15 18:58: ┌─ 💡 RandoMina is designed for dApps requiring secure randomness! 🎲 │ │ 🎰 Lotteries │ 🎲 Gaming │ 💰 DeFi │ 🔐 And more! │ │ Native on Mina Protocol blockchain and bridgeable to other blockchains like Ethereum └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 18:58 💡 RandoMina is designed for dApps requiring secure randomness! 🎲 🎰 Lotteries 🎲 Gaming 💰 DeFi 🔐 And more! Native on Mina Protocol blockchain and bridgeable to other blockchains like Ethereum 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-15 18:58: ┌─ ⚡ Key Features: │ │ 🔀 Provable pseudo-randomness: VRF │ 🔒 Fresh & Tamper-proof: ZK and Mina Protocol blockchain │ ⚡ Efficient & scalable: zkSNARKs │ 🌐 Decentralized & trustless: $MINA │ 🔭 Transparent & auditable: OpenSource └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 18:58 ⚡ Key Features: 🔀 Provable pseudo-randomness: VRF 🔒 Fresh & Tamper-proof: ZK and Mina Protocol blockchain ⚡ Efficient & scalable: zkSNARKs 🌐 Decentralized & trustless: $MINA 🔭 Transparent & auditable: OpenSource 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-15 18:58: ┌─ 🔒 RandoMina leverages the power of Zero-Knowledge (ZK) proofs to ensure random numbers are: │ │ ✅ Provable │ ✅ Secure │ ✅ Trustless │ │ 🌐 Built on Mina Protocol blockchain, RandoMina is tamper-proof and transparent! 🙌 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 18:58 🔒 RandoMina leverages the power of Zero-Knowledge (ZK) proofs to ensure random numbers are: ✅ Provable ✅ Secure ✅ Trustless 🌐 Built on Mina Protocol blockchain, RandoMina is tamper-proof and transparent! 🙌 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-15 18:58: ┌─ 🎲 Introducing RandoMina - a protocol for provable random number generation on the Mina Protocol blockchain blockchain! 🔢🔐 │ │ 🌟 Developed as part of zkLocus, RandoMina is now open-source and ready for you to explore! 🚀 │ │ 🔗 GitHub: https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina │ │ 🧵 Let's dive in! 👇 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-15 18:58 🎲 Introducing RandoMina - a protocol for provable random number generation on the Mina Protocol blockchain blockchain! 🔢🔐 🌟 Developed as part of zkLocus, RandoMina is now open-source and ready for you to explore! 🚀 🔗 GitHub: https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina 🧵 Let's dive in! 👇 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-14 13:28 🔗 Deep dive into ZKP protocols of zkSNARK/zkSTARK and how combined with the blockchain they enable a new Verifiable Computation model by providing a cryptographic observation of a computation👇 https://illya.sh/blog/posts/zksnark-zkstark-verifiable-computation-model-blockchain/ 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-14 13:28: ┌─ 💡 When combined with the blockchain, zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs are disruptive: │ │ 🌍 zkLocus: geolocation RWA │ 🏥 zkSafeZones: Safeguarding civilians in warzones. Proposing to UN and ICRC │ ⚖️ Automated legal compliance on-chain │ 🕵️ Privacy-preserving AI systems │ │ 🛠️ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-14 13:28 💡 When combined with the blockchain, zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs are disruptive: 🌍 zkLocus: geolocation RWA 🏥 zkSafeZones: Safeguarding civilians in warzones. Proposing to UN and ICRC ⚖️ Automated legal compliance on-chain 🕵️ Privacy-preserving AI systems 🛠️ 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-14 13:28: ┌─ 🕰️ Compared to the Ethereum EVM's Linear Verifiable Computational Model (LVCM), zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs offer a Constant one (CVCM) │ │ ⚡ Verification time: O(1) vs. O(n) │ 🌪️ Scalability: ♾️ vs. 📈 │ ⛓️ Interoperability: 🌉 vs. 🚧 │ │ 🌟 The implications of ZK are PROFOUND! └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-14 13:28 🕰️ Compared to the Ethereum EVM's Linear Verifiable Computational Model (LVCM), zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs offer a Constant one (CVCM) ⚡ Verification time: O(1) vs. O(n) 🌪️ Scalability: ♾️ vs. 📈 ⛓️ Interoperability: 🌉 vs. 🚧 🌟 The implications of ZK are PROFOUND! 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-14 13:28: ┌─ 🌿 Thanks to their RECURSIVE properties, zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs enable INFINITE SCALABILITY ♾️ │ │ 🧩 You can COMPRESS 1000s of proofs into a SINGLE one │ ⏳ Verification time remains ~CONSTANT │ 💰 Gas costs are SLASHED │ │ 🔥 This is the power of ZKP! 🔥 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-14 13:28 🌿 Thanks to their RECURSIVE properties, zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs enable INFINITE SCALABILITY ♾️ 🧩 You can COMPRESS 1000s of proofs into a SINGLE one ⏳ Verification time remains ~CONSTANT 💰 Gas costs are SLASHED 🔥 This is the power of ZKP! 🔥 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-14 13:28: ┌─ ✅ Generating the proof = Executing the computation │ 🔍 Verifying the proof = Checking the computation's correctness │ ⏰ Verification is ~CONSTANT time, regardless of computation complexity │ │ 🚀 How do you think this affects SCALABILITY? 💫 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-14 13:28 ✅ Generating the proof = Executing the computation 🔍 Verifying the proof = Checking the computation's correctness ⏰ Verification is ~CONSTANT time, regardless of computation complexity 🚀 How do you think this affects SCALABILITY? 💫 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-14 13:28: ┌─ 🎯 At their core, zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs provide a cryptographic OBSERVATION of a computation 🔍 │ │ 🕵️ The PROVER generates the PROOF │ ⚖️ The VERIFIER checks the PROOF │ 🔒 The PROOF itself encapsulates the computation, inputs & outputs │ │ 🤯 It's like a mathematical witness! └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-14 13:28 🎯 At their core, zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs provide a cryptographic OBSERVATION of a computation 🔍 🕵️ The PROVER generates the PROOF ⚖️ The VERIFIER checks the PROOF 🔒 The PROOF itself encapsulates the computation, inputs & outputs 🤯 It's like a mathematical witness! 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-14 13:28: ┌─ Ever wondered how zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs ACTUALLY work under the hood? 🤔 │ │ 🔐 These ZeroKnowledge protocols offer a novel way to PROVE computations without revealing the computation itself! 🤯 │ │ ⛓️ Native match with blockchain │ │ (a thread 🧵) └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-14 13:28 Ever wondered how zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs ACTUALLY work under the hood? 🤔 🔐 These ZeroKnowledge protocols offer a novel way to PROVE computations without revealing the computation itself! 🤯 ⛓️ Native match with blockchain (a thread 🧵) ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-13 18:28 🧠 Adapting to the ZK mindset takes time, but the rewards are IMMENSE 💡 As I discovered building zkLocus, every challenge sparks innovation 🌟 Soon, you'll be engineering groundbreaking solutions effortlessly 🚀 The future of Web3 is BRIGHT with ZeroKnowledge! 🔐🌐💻 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-13 18:28: ┌─ 🔐 The era of PRIVATE, VERIFIABLE, PROGRAMMABLE and TRUSTLESS computation is upon us! 👇 │ │ https://illya.sh/blog/posts/zksnark-zkstark-verifiable-computation-model-blockchain/ └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-13 18:28 🔐 The era of PRIVATE, VERIFIABLE, PROGRAMMABLE and TRUSTLESS computation is upon us! 👇 https://illya.sh/blog/posts/zksnark-zkstark-verifiable-computation-model-blockchain/ 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-13 18:28: ┌─ 🌍 But the potential of zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs goes BEYOND blockchain! │ │ 🏥 zkSafeZones: Safeguarding civilians in warzones: │ │ ⚖️ Automated on-chain legal compliance │ 👁️ Privacy-preserving AI surveillance │ 🧪 Built on zkLocus + Mina Protocol blockchain │ ⛑️ Proposing to UN and ICRC └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-13 18:28 🌍 But the potential of zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs goes BEYOND blockchain! 🏥 zkSafeZones: Safeguarding civilians in warzones: ⚖️ Automated on-chain legal compliance 👁️ Privacy-preserving AI surveillance 🧪 Built on zkLocus + Mina Protocol blockchain ⛑️ Proposing to UN and ICRC 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-13 18:28: ┌─ ⏳ Time complexity comparison: EVM vs. zkSNARKs/zkSTARKs │ │ 🧮 Execution: EVM is faster due to simple VM emulation │ 🔍 Verification: ZK proofs shine with constant O(1) vs. EVM's linear O(n) │ │ 💡 This is why ZK L2 solutions are BOOMING on Ethereum! └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-13 18:28 ⏳ Time complexity comparison: EVM vs. zkSNARKs/zkSTARKs 🧮 Execution: EVM is faster due to simple VM emulation 🔍 Verification: ZK proofs shine with constant O(1) vs. EVM's linear O(n) 💡 This is why ZK L2 solutions are BOOMING on Ethereum! 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-13 18:28: ┌─ 🔍 Let's examine how zkLocus leverages Mina's zkSNARK-based architecture │ │ 🌍 Geolocation data becomes a trustless, programmable Real World Asset (RWA) │ 🌉 zkLocus proofs can be used cross-chain or even off-chain │ 🎯 It's an "app-specific rollup" on Mina, focusing on its own logic └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-13 18:28 🔍 Let's examine how zkLocus leverages Mina's zkSNARK-based architecture 🌍 Geolocation data becomes a trustless, programmable Real World Asset (RWA) 🌉 zkLocus proofs can be used cross-chain or even off-chain 🎯 It's an "app-specific rollup" on Mina, focusing on its own logic 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-13 18:28: ┌─ ♾️ The recursive nature of zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs enables INFINITE SCALABILITY │ │ 🌿 Imagine compressing 1000s of computations into a SINGLE proof │ ⏰ Verification time remains ~CONSTANT │ 💰 Gas costs are DRASTICALLY reduced │ │ 🔥 This is the power of ZKP! 🔥 │ │ Mina Protocol blockchain aces it 💪 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-13 18:28 ♾️ The recursive nature of zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs enables INFINITE SCALABILITY 🌿 Imagine compressing 1000s of computations into a SINGLE proof ⏰ Verification time remains ~CONSTANT 💰 Gas costs are DRASTICALLY reduced 🔥 This is the power of ZKP! 🔥 Mina Protocol blockchain aces it 💪 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-13 18:28: ┌─ 🤯 The implications are MASSIVE! │ │ 🧪 Mina Protocol blockchain and it's native token $MINA operate on this architecture │ │ 📍zkLocus leverages this technology to turn geolocation into a RWA, by enabling private, verifiable and programmable geolocation sharing └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-13 18:28 🤯 The implications are MASSIVE! 🧪 Mina Protocol blockchain and it's native token $MINA operate on this architecture 📍zkLocus leverages this technology to turn geolocation into a RWA, by enabling private, verifiable and programmable geolocation sharing 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-13 18:28: ┌─ 🚀 zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs offer a Constant Verifiable Computational Model (CVCM) │ │ ⚡ Verification time is CONSTANT - O(1), regardless of computation complexity │ │ 💡 Contrast this with the EVM's Linear VCM (LVCM), where verification grows LINEARLY with instructions - O(n) └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-13 18:28 🚀 zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs offer a Constant Verifiable Computational Model (CVCM) ⚡ Verification time is CONSTANT - O(1), regardless of computation complexity 💡 Contrast this with the EVM's Linear VCM (LVCM), where verification grows LINEARLY with instructions - O(n) 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-13 18:28: ┌─ 🤔 What makes a computation VERIFIABLE? │ │ ✅ In zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs, provers generate proofs of computations, while verifiers check their correctness │ 🔒 This model supports PRIVATE inputs, unlike the EVM │ 🌍 It's not limited to blockchain - zkLocus showcases off-chain use cases └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-13 18:28 🤔 What makes a computation VERIFIABLE? ✅ In zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs, provers generate proofs of computations, while verifiers check their correctness 🔒 This model supports PRIVATE inputs, unlike the EVM 🌍 It's not limited to blockchain - zkLocus showcases off-chain use cases 📖 Quoting from 2024-04-13 18:28: ┌─ zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs: Disrupting Verifiable Computation │ │ Explore how these #ZeroKnowledge protocols SURPASS the #EVM's model, opening a world of possibilities for #Web3 applications │ │ Deep dive ARTICLE │ │ │ │ Let's unravel the key insights └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-04-13 18:28 zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs: Disrupting Verifiable Computation Explore how these #ZeroKnowledge protocols SURPASS the #EVM's model, opening a world of possibilities for #Web3 applications Deep dive ARTICLE Let's unravel the key insights ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-02-01 19:28 Likewise! Very fun and insightful. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-01-30 14:40 Great idea! A use-case leveraging one of the unique value-propositions of the verifiable computational model offered by Zero-Knowledge Proofs and recursive zkSNARKs ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-01-29 08:27 It's easy to blame it on the devs or the ecosystem. A fair assessment compares solutions within the ecosystem. Good, innovate and disruptive solutions? Likely a dev issue. If not - the ecosystem. Remember to take the critical mass into consideration ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-01-28 17:35 Individuality isn't about opposing the majority. It's about thinking for yourself In product, it's not about doing something or avoiding something. It's about doing what increases value, and not doing what diminishes value ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-01-23 17:42 Very interesting to see the #BitcoinEFT used as a liquidity exit And only a few days ago the supply APY on most FIAT stable coins was over 20% on #AAVE You could mistake this for a bullish sign, in an apparent short of FIAT for #crypto Always analyze the big picture ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-01-13 09:55 A good software engineer follows the best practices. A great software engineer follows the best practices which are compatible with the goal, the mission, and the vision. In practice this makes suboptimal architecture acceptable in exchange for flexibility. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-01-08 21:28 The point of software is to be able to iterate fast. 100% of software can be replaced with hardware, but nobody wants to hardcode circuits (except for the #ZK crowd 😄). Iteration is its value proposition This is why software products that take years to deliver don't make sense ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-01-07 19:22 A little trip into circular dependencies in TypeScript will make you appreciate Python's local imports even more ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-01-06 13:07 Extending with a personal thank you one more time 💜 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-01-06 13:07 Extending with a personal thank you 💜 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-01-06 11:26 Just to re-iterate on this further: the iPhone's 0-click exploit broke the ARM processor's authentication mechanism for pointers, thus allowing the malware to perform arbitrary signatures of arbitrary pointers, thus breaking their authentication & integrity guarantees http ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2024-01-06 00:02 A small insight into the meticulous care that is necessary in designing #DeFi tokens with sound economic value principles ⬇️ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-12-30 15:44 🟢 The first battery of tests has just been launched! 🔵 Authenticated metadata commitments are coming too. This will allow for a cryptographic association between metadata and the geolocation 🟣 Such features are infeasible without the recursive zkSNARK architecture of $MINA ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-12-29 23:44 #DeFi only makes sense with private data. This is infeasible on Ethereum, but trivial on $MINA. Zero-Knowledge will lead to mass adoption of #DeFi, enabling its Cambrian explosion. Of course, you can also bridge $MINA to Ethereum. This is by design. Big things are coming. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-12-29 23:03 No Tests = No Code No Abstracted Tests = No Tests ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-12-29 21:54 The negative connotation associated with 'weirdness' is a product of insecurity and fragile ego. Always remember: your ego can be trained and developed through deliberate mental and physical effort. ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-12-29 18:27 I'm not fanboying. Once you think deeply about it will all make sense #ZKP #Web3 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-12-11 23:23 If you only understood how cheap gold is now. To put it in perspective, its current FIAT price only reflects inflation prior to 2011 🤯 Any direct or indirect inflation following that time period has not yet been accounted for You don't have to trust me. Trust the price action ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-10-26 19:55 🤯 Zero-Knowledge cryptography is how the blockchain will connect to the outside world. As the ZK field matures, so will the blockchain use cases. Two computation models that were meant for each other. #zk #blockchain #evm #crypto #mina #Bitcoin #smartcontracts ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-08-16 00:18 Unlock the secret to predicting any asset's price! The 30-day federal funds rate futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is the key. Learn how to use this unique indicator for profitable trading in this video. #Trading #Investing #Cryptocurrency #Futures ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-17 23:43 🌐 In conclusion, it's essential to understand the technical and operational differences between BRC-20 and ERC-20. While the ecosystem around BRC-20 will continue to evolve, it is unlikely that it will supersede smart-contract based DeFi 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-17 23:43: ┌─ 📚 A detailed explanation of what BRC-20 are and how they work can be found on this thread: │ │ https://illya.sh/threads/@1684348771-1.html │ │ BRC20 Ordinals Inscriptions Bitcoin └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-17 23:43 📚 A detailed explanation of what BRC-20 are and how they work can be found on this thread: https://illya.sh/threads/@1684348771-1.html BRC20 Ordinals Inscriptions Bitcoin 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-17 23:43: ┌─ 🚀 BRC-20 is also less efficient than ERC-20. Any mildly complex system built around BRC-20 heavily relies on caching. In contrast, ERC-20 is extremely efficient, cryptographically protected, and operates seamlessly on the blockchain └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-17 23:43 🚀 BRC-20 is also less efficient than ERC-20. Any mildly complex system built around BRC-20 heavily relies on caching. In contrast, ERC-20 is extremely efficient, cryptographically protected, and operates seamlessly on the blockchain 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-17 23:43: ┌─ 🛠️ Any DeFi ecosystem built around BRC-20 will need off-chain tools. This requirement brings in a level of centralization and potential vulnerability. On the other hand, with ERC-20, everything is fully stored and operated on the blockchain └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-17 23:43 🛠️ Any DeFi ecosystem built around BRC-20 will need off-chain tools. This requirement brings in a level of centralization and potential vulnerability. On the other hand, with ERC-20, everything is fully stored and operated on the blockchain 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-17 23:43: ┌─ 🚧 Contrary to popular belief, BRC-20 isn't fully on the Bitcoin blockchain. Yes, the text is stored as part of Taproot Bitcoin transactions, but Bitcoin isn't aware of BRC-20s. You need an external, off-chain tool to parse and calculate balances └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-17 23:43 🚧 Contrary to popular belief, BRC-20 isn't fully on the Bitcoin blockchain. Yes, the text is stored as part of Taproot Bitcoin transactions, but Bitcoin isn't aware of BRC-20s. You need an external, off-chain tool to parse and calculate balances 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-17 23:43: ┌─ 🪙 BRC-20 doesn't limit the minting of tokens. There is no way of knowing wether a token has been fully minted without parsing every “mint” text record. Conversely, ERC-20 ensures that only a predetermined amount of a token can exist, providing a more controlled ecosystem. └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-17 23:43 🪙 BRC-20 doesn't limit the minting of tokens. There is no way of knowing wether a token has been fully minted without parsing every “mint” text record. Conversely, ERC-20 ensures that only a predetermined amount of a token can exist, providing a more controlled ecosystem. 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-17 23:43: ┌─ 📝 With BRC-20, there are no numeric balances. Instead, you need to parse everything from the text. In contrast, ERC-20 gives each address an integer balance, simplifying and enforcing the proper handling of assets └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-17 23:43 📝 With BRC-20, there are no numeric balances. Instead, you need to parse everything from the text. In contrast, ERC-20 gives each address an integer balance, simplifying and enforcing the proper handling of assets 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-17 23:43: ┌─ 🤔 It's crucial to understand what these tokens are. BRC-20 is essentially a piece of text, whereas ERC-20 is a computer program. BRC-20's capabilities are limited to inscription on the blockchain. ERC-20, on the other hand, allows encoding of any execution logic └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-17 23:43 🤔 It's crucial to understand what these tokens are. BRC-20 is essentially a piece of text, whereas ERC-20 is a computer program. BRC-20's capabilities are limited to inscription on the blockchain. ERC-20, on the other hand, allows encoding of any execution logic 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-17 23:43: ┌─ 🚀 Debunking a common misconception in the Crypto world: BRC-20 superiority over ERC-20 │ │ If you've heard BRC-20 is better, let's dive into some facts that might make you rethink that claim └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-17 23:43 🚀 Debunking a common misconception in the Crypto world: BRC-20 superiority over ERC-20 If you've heard BRC-20 is better, let's dive into some facts that might make you rethink that claim ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-17 19:39 📚 Remember, inscriptions are still an experimental feature, so exercise caution when working with them ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-17 19:39 🎯 Keep in mind that transaction fees and the size of the inscription can affect costs. As the inscription size increases, so does the transaction size, potentially impacting fees required for inclusion in a block 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-17 19:39: ┌─ 🖼️ Inscriptions demonstrate the versatility of the Bitcoin blockchain, enabling storage of arbitrary data. From artwork to text, the possibilities are endless. Ordinal Theory opens new avenues for creativity and innovation on the blockchain. └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-17 19:39 🖼️ Inscriptions demonstrate the versatility of the Bitcoin blockchain, enabling storage of arbitrary data. From artwork to text, the possibilities are endless. Ordinal Theory opens new avenues for creativity and innovation on the blockchain. 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-17 19:39: ┌─ 🛠️ Meet the ord tool! It serves as an index, block explorer, and wallet for exploring the world of inscriptions. With ord, you can generate, manage, and interact with your own inscriptions on the Bitcoin blockchain └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-17 19:39 🛠️ Meet the ord tool! It serves as an index, block explorer, and wallet for exploring the world of inscriptions. With ord, you can generate, manage, and interact with your own inscriptions on the Bitcoin blockchain 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-17 19:39: ┌─ 🔒 When an address becomes the owner of an inscription on the Bitcoin blockchain, it gains the ability to transfer that inscription. This ownership is secured and verified by the Bitcoin network itself └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-17 19:39 🔒 When an address becomes the owner of an inscription on the Bitcoin blockchain, it gains the ability to transfer that inscription. This ownership is secured and verified by the Bitcoin network itself 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-17 19:39: ┌─ 🗂️ So, how does arbitrary data get stored on the Bitcoin blockchain using ordinals? Inscription content is serialized and included in the input of a reveal transaction, giving life to new forms of digital artifacts └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-17 19:39 🗂️ So, how does arbitrary data get stored on the Bitcoin blockchain using ordinals? Inscription content is serialized and included in the input of a reveal transaction, giving life to new forms of digital artifacts 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-17 19:39: ┌─ 🌱 Taproot addresses play a crucial role in enabling inscriptions. They leverage the power of the Taproot upgrade on the Bitcoin blockchain, providing the necessary flexibility to store arbitrary content within a transaction └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-17 19:39 🌱 Taproot addresses play a crucial role in enabling inscriptions. They leverage the power of the Taproot upgrade on the Bitcoin blockchain, providing the necessary flexibility to store arbitrary content within a transaction 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-17 19:39: ┌─ 🔍 We can track a single satoshi using these inscriptions. This allows us to trace its journey across transactions, from one taproot address to another. The first satoshi of the first output becomes the vessel for the inscription └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-17 19:39 🔍 We can track a single satoshi using these inscriptions. This allows us to trace its journey across transactions, from one taproot address to another. The first satoshi of the first output becomes the vessel for the inscription 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-17 19:39: ┌─ 📝 An inscription is an arbitrary piece of data attached to an individual satoshi, transforming it into a Bitcoin-native digital artifact. It's like a digital signature, representing something unique and valuable └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-17 19:39 📝 An inscription is an arbitrary piece of data attached to an individual satoshi, transforming it into a Bitcoin-native digital artifact. It's like a digital signature, representing something unique and valuable 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-17 19:39: ┌─ 🧠 Ordinal Theory assigns serial numbers to satoshis, the smallest unit of Bitcoin. These ordinal numbers are assigned in the order satoshis are mined, giving each a unique identity and opening the door to a world of possibilities └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-17 19:39 🧠 Ordinal Theory assigns serial numbers to satoshis, the smallest unit of Bitcoin. These ordinal numbers are assigned in the order satoshis are mined, giving each a unique identity and opening the door to a world of possibilities 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-17 19:39: ┌─ What if I told you that Bitcoin is not just about money, but it can also store arbitrary data? │ │ In this thread I will explain in detail the fascinating world of Ordinals and Inscriptions, where individual satoshis become more than just digital currency └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-17 19:39 What if I told you that Bitcoin is not just about money, but it can also store arbitrary data? In this thread I will explain in detail the fascinating world of Ordinals and Inscriptions, where individual satoshis become more than just digital currency ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-10 16:31 🌍 In conclusion, the Ordinal Protocol on Bitcoin opens up new possibilities for tracking, trading, and collecting satoshis, as well as creating digital artifacts. It's a valuable addition to the blockchain ecosystem! 🌟🌊 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-10 16:31: ┌─ 👩‍🎨 Why inscriptions matter for artists: They're on Bitcoin (high status), have cheaper on-chain storage, unlock new liquidity, and are designed specifically for digital artifacts. This offers unique advantages compared to other NFT platforms. 🎭🚀 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-10 16:31 👩‍🎨 Why inscriptions matter for artists: They're on Bitcoin (high status), have cheaper on-chain storage, unlock new liquidity, and are designed specifically for digital artifacts. This offers unique advantages compared to other NFT platforms. 🎭🚀 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-10 16:31: ┌─ 🧪 Comparisons to other platforms: Ordinal Protocol has been designed specifically for digital artifacts, offering a simpler and more polished user experience compared to second-layer asset protocols like RGB and Taro. 🖼️🌟 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-10 16:31 🧪 Comparisons to other platforms: Ordinal Protocol has been designed specifically for digital artifacts, offering a simpler and more polished user experience compared to second-layer asset protocols like RGB and Taro. 🖼️🌟 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-10 16:31: ┌─ ⚠️ The key differences between Ordinal Theory's inscriptions and Ethereum NFTs: │ │ - Inscriptions are always immutable🔏 │ - Content is always on-chain💾 │ - Inscriptions are simpler and more secure🛡️ │ - They're scarcer, unlocking new markets💰 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-10 16:31 ⚠️ The key differences between Ordinal Theory's inscriptions and Ethereum NFTs: - Inscriptions are always immutable🔏 - Content is always on-chain💾 - Inscriptions are simpler and more secure🛡️ - They're scarcer, unlocking new markets💰 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-10 16:31: ┌─ 🧩 How does it work? Ordinal numbers are assigned to satoshis as they're mined. A simple algorithm is used to determine how satoshis move from inputs to outputs in transactions, maintaining their unique identities. 💹🔀 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-10 16:31 🧩 How does it work? Ordinal numbers are assigned to satoshis as they're mined. A simple algorithm is used to determine how satoshis move from inputs to outputs in transactions, maintaining their unique identities. 💹🔀 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-10 16:31: ┌─ 🔑 The power of Ordinal Theory: Collecting, trading, and scheming!🤝 By assigning identities to satoshis, they become individually trackable and tradable for numismatic value. Plus, it enables inscriptions: a protocol to attach content to satoshis! 🎨🔐 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-10 16:31 🔑 The power of Ordinal Theory: Collecting, trading, and scheming!🤝 By assigning identities to satoshis, they become individually trackable and tradable for numismatic value. Plus, it enables inscriptions: a protocol to attach content to satoshis! 🎨🔐 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-10 16:31: ┌─ 🛠 Does Ordinal Theory require a side chain, separate token, or changes to Bitcoin? NO! It works right now with only bitcoin as the token, making it a seamless addition to the ecosystem.🌱🔄 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-10 16:31 🛠 Does Ordinal Theory require a side chain, separate token, or changes to Bitcoin? NO! It works right now with only bitcoin as the token, making it a seamless addition to the ecosystem.🌱🔄 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-10 16:31: ┌─ 🤔 What is Ordinal Theory? It's a protocol for assigning serial numbers to satoshis, the smallest unit of a bitcoin, and tracking their transactions. Imagine giving each satoshi a unique identity, like a collectible item! 💎🔗 └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-10 16:31 🤔 What is Ordinal Theory? It's a protocol for assigning serial numbers to satoshis, the smallest unit of a bitcoin, and tracking their transactions. Imagine giving each satoshi a unique identity, like a collectible item! 💎🔗 📖 Quoting from 2023-05-10 16:31: ┌─ 🚀 The Bitcoin Ordinal Protocol Explained: an innovation which allows for tracking, trading, and collecting digital assets on the Bitcoin network! │ │ ⚡️Powers BRC20 & SBC20 │ │ 💥 Let's dive into this fascinating protocol and explore its significance Blockchain Crypto │ (a thread 🧵) └─ ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-05-10 16:31 🚀 The Bitcoin Ordinal Protocol Explained: an innovation which allows for tracking, trading, and collecting digital assets on the Bitcoin network! ⚡️Powers BRC20 & SBC20 💥 Let's dive into this fascinating protocol and explore its significance Blockchain Crypto (a thread 🧵) ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-03-15 16:29 🚨📈 #Crypto DOWN‼️ Exactly as I pointed out yesterday 💡Markets are very easy to predict, you just have to listen at what they're saying Always remember: #DeFi on-chain data is your friend ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-03-15 00:56 🚨📈 FIRST INDICATION OF #CRYPTO DOWNTREND $ETH supply APY at 3% on #AAVE, the highest value this month 🩳The market is starting to short $ETH 💡REMINDER: Unfollow everyone saying that #Bitcoin is in a #BullMarket, as they have no idea what they are talking about ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-03-13 17:57 🚨📈A bounce back into the upper part of the previous weekly rectangle is NOT a #BulMarket signal #Bitcoin will fall back down. So will the rest of the #crypto. Lower than previously Prepare your #shorts ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-03-13 17:47 🚀 #Bitcoin #BullMarket CONFIRMED 🚨 You MUST unfollow every single person saying that Bitcoin and #crypto entered a bull market, because they have no idea what they are talking about ➡️I challenge anyone to show me a single sign of reversal. There is none #TA ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-03-13 04:36 🚨📈 The failure and the bailout of $SVB and $SIVB has shifted the market's sentiment towards the #FED Funds Rate A rate hike now seems less likely ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-03-13 04:12 🚨 Despite the Goldman Sachs's statement regarding rate hikes and bank bailouts, currently the market is fully expecting a rate hike by 25bps Although things may change, specially with the Biden's speech In either case, QE is not yet back, so no bull market for #Bitcoin ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-03-12 20:32 Failing banks will tank price of #Bitcoin down with them, because most of money in Bitcoin are loans from those same banks ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-03-12 19:28 🚨 $PAXG is trading at an $80 premium over gold The market sentiment is clear: there is a run from #crypto into #gold Selling your cryptocurrency for $PAXG is a good hedge against both, #Bitcoin and $USD You can always buy it back for a profit after ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-03-12 15:54 🚨📈Bank failures will NOT drive $BTC price up Most of crypto is financed by DEBT As banks like SVB are failing, both the stock market and crypto prices will fall on Monday How to profit: 1️⃣ Short #crypto 2️⃣ Buy #gold 3️⃣ Swap crypto for gold ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-03-12 04:13 🚨📈 $USDT APY on #AAVE is 60% This means that people are shorting $USDT. The market sentiment is that $USDT is overpriced. How to profit: 1. Short $USDT 2. Lend $USDT for a high APR. Should last until Monday 3. Do both This happened because of the depeg of $USDC ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-03-11 04:02 🚨📈 $USDT liquidity on #DEX pools decreased to almost ZERO, while $USDC liquidity almost doubled This is a result of mass swapping of $USDC for $USDT ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-03-11 03:48 🚨🔥 Over $1.5 billion $USDC have been burned in the last 8 hours ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-03-11 02:58 🚨📈 $USDC is the 2nd smart contract with the most gas usage on #Ethereum, second only to #Uniswap $USDT is 4th, since massive swapping from $USDC to $USDT is taking across all pools in #DEX Depegging of $USDC can lead to the collapse of other #stablecoins and #crypto prices ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-03-11 02:33 🚨📈 $USDT reserves are depleting across all #DEX pools that have $USDC. It's not just the #3pool on #Curve, #SUSD pool is in the same situation. This is a result of massive liquidation of $USDC, due to SVB's collapse. The depegging seems to be more likely by the minute 😳 ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-03-11 02:26 🚨📈 $USDT reserves at the $USDC / $USDT 0.01% pool on #Uniswap are depleted 😳 This indicates a massive $USDC liquidation. A lot of news saying that $USDC is safe despite #SVB collapse, but the market seems be saying otherwise… ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-03-11 02:14 🚨📈 $USDT reserves at #Curve's #3pool dropped below 3%!! This is the reason why $BUSD is trading below $USDT at #Binance It's caused by mass swap of $USDC to $USDT across the DEXes. Same happening on #Uniswap ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-03-11 02:02 🚨📈 Mass $USDC to $USDT swapping has caused $BUSD to fall below $USDT by more than 1% As $USDT reserves across #DEX are depleting, it's also affecting #CEX like #Binance This is a result of the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank, where $USDC has reserves ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-03-11 01:47 🚨 $USDT reserves at #Curve are almost depleted, with less than 4% of it remaining in the #3pool This is another sign of massive swapping of $USDC for $USDT, due to the collapse of #SVB $USDC depegging is on the horizon! ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-03-11 01:23 🚨 $USDC trading below $USD and $USDT above $USD Looks like everyone is swapping $USDC for $USDT because of #SVB collapse ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-03-10 21:05 Saying that Silvergate represents crypto is like saying that you represent the US Dollar, because you have them in your wallet. Not a single DEX collapsed for the same reasons. DeFi is building the best financial system in history. #bitcoin #crypto #defi #dex ~ ✨ ~ ⏰ 2023-03-05 22:20 Navigating the world of DeFi without a deep understanding of the economic and monetary theory is akin to navigating an unknown city without a map. Just because the buildings are made of the same material as in your hometown, doesn't mean you'll find your way through #DeFi #crypto ~ ✨ ~