👋 Hi! I'm Illya Gerasymchuk
💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭
🏠 Homepage: https://illya.sh
🧠 Thoughts: https://illya.sh/thoughts/
📝 Blog: https://illya.sh/blog/
💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭💭


⏰ 2025-06-22 14:34

now it’s official 😄

ethereum price fell to $2180 📉

interestingly, the majority sentiment of large following X accounts seemed to be bullish

please note, I wrote the original post more than a week ago - back then the market sentiment was extremely bullish

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-13 16:55:
┌─ While Ethereum has built a strong-ish support in the current area, it currently looks more likely to fall towards the ≈$2180 monthly support
│ 
│ Do not underestimate what the new all time highs in gold are telling you
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-22 14:20

UN’s Model Double Taxation Convention has a clear key benefit over OCED’s

since UN’s model gives more taxing rights for the source state - it’s the one that makes sense for developing economies

imagine a developed nation benefiting from cheaper labor in the source state - who created the workforce in the first place, and having their tax base eroded in favor of resident state

so the resident state would get double benefit:

1️⃣ cheaper labor
2️⃣ higher tax income for the government 

on the other hand you could argue for OCED’s model favoring a higher volume of investment, thus effectively distributing more wages throughout the economy. this channels the funds more directly to the consumers, which would end up increasing their purchasing power more than if it had to go through the government first

but then again, you must remember the global market is NOT a free market economy. existing legislation overall favors more developed countries, so protective measures for developing countries in the international tax law may make a lot of sense

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-22 12:10

btw here I’m looking at PAXG (Paxos Gold) token

essentially, a 1:1 gold-backed ERC-20 token

there is also XAUT from Tether

whenever TradFi markets are closed - it’s your go-to for alpha insights

can’t believe that in 2025 there is still such a thing as market closure 🤯

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-22 12:08:
┌─ gold's behavior during the current “bullrun” has been consistently to flip previous week's resistance to new support
│ 
│ in the chart - the green vertical lines are weekly levels
│ 
│ gold's current price action suggests it's flipping another resistance for support
│ 
│ Road to $3500 🚀
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-22 12:08

gold's behavior during the current “bullrun” has been consistently to flip previous week's resistance to new support

in the chart - the green vertical lines are weekly levels

gold's current price action suggests it's flipping another resistance for support

Road to $3500 🚀

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-22 10:08:
┌─ all eyes on gold futures 👀
│ 
│ COMEX gold futures trading open in 13h
│ 
│ markets are closed now, but blockchain never sleeps
│ 
│ on-chain gold-backed token futures may give you a heads-up - they’re up ≈1.3% from yesterday
│ 
│ interesting to see gold moves after open
│ 
│ spoiler: higher price
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-22 11:16

i warned about ethereum's price downfall towards the monthly support over a week ago - back when everyone was still bullish

now, another large liquidation price zone is approaching ≈$2240

what do you think will be the price action after monthly level rebound? trend up or down?

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-22 11:13

i warned about ethereum's price fall towards the monthly support over a week ago - back when everyone was still bullish

now, another large liquidation price zone is approaching ≈$2240

what do you think will be the price action after monthly level rebound? trend up or down?

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-13 16:55:
┌─ While Ethereum has built a strong-ish support in the current area, it currently looks more likely to fall towards the ≈$2180 monthly support
│ 
│ Do not underestimate what the new all time highs in gold are telling you
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-22 10:45

here's some ethereum alpha for the next hours ⬇️

ETH is approaching a large liquidation area at ≈2240 USD

the closer we get to the price - the more long closures & liquidations

first price down due the selling pressure, then expect a rebound up & I already wrote what's next

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-13 16:55:
┌─ While Ethereum has built a strong-ish support in the current area, it currently looks more likely to fall towards the ≈$2180 monthly support
│ 
│ Do not underestimate what the new all time highs in gold are telling you
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-22 10:08

all eyes on gold futures 👀

COMEX gold futures trading open in 13h

markets are closed now, but blockchain never sleeps

on-chain gold-backed token futures may give you a heads-up - they’re up ≈1.3% from yesterday

interesting to see gold moves after open

spoiler: higher price

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-21 18:42:
┌─ soooo… new gold ATH next week?
│ 
│ look at gold's price chart with weekly candles - it’s unbelievable 🤯
│ 
│ gold is going up like a risky asset - but it in fact is a reflection of risk
│ 
│ now it looks like a breakout from another consolidation phase 📈
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-22 09:34

money market funds yield close to the risk free rate (think of FED funds rate in the US, or ECB deposit rate in the EU), while offering less risk due to shorter maturity

essentially, you provide a collateral (highly liquid - usually sovereign debt) and get a loan against it

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-22 09:27:
┌─ record $7 trillion USD in money market funds (mmf)
│ 
│ this risk-averse liquidity is bound to flow into into other financial assets at some point
│ 
│ mmf consists of short-term collateralized loans - credit that is NOT captured by M2
│ 
│ last two outflows coincided with bitcoin bullrun
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-22 09:27

record $7 trillion USD in money market funds (mmf)

this risk-averse liquidity is bound to flow into into other financial assets at some point

mmf consists of short-term collateralized loans - credit that is NOT captured by M2

last two outflows coincided with bitcoin bullrun

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-22 09:07

NotebookLM explains International Tax Law to a Software Engineer

okay, from now on I'm referring to soft law as API spec 😂

although if you think about it - with AI/LLMs you can program APIs in natural languages (e.g. English)

brb dumping OECD MTC to Gemini for smart contracts

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-22 00:20

and ethereum's downtrend continues on…

towards the monthly support area

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-22 00:05:
┌─ okay looks like it started before I could finish typing 😂
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-22 00:05

okay looks like it started before I could finish typing 😂

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-22 00:03:
┌─ look at that buy pressure exhaustion 😫
│ 
│ ethereum's about to go back into red (or yellow, in my chart)
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-22 00:03

look at that buy pressure exhaustion 😫

ethereum's about to go back into red (or yellow, in my chart)

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-21 23:36:
┌─ ethereum's resumed downfall towards monthly ≈$2180 support may be resumed in the next hour
│ 
│ this is a 5 minute-candle chart - but contextualize my argument within the greater trend
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-21 23:36

ethereum's resumed downfall towards monthly ≈$2180 support may be resumed in the next hour

this is a 5 minute-candle chart - but contextualize my argument within the greater trend

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-21 22:56:
┌─ ethereum's price will very likely retrace upwards once it reaches the core monthly support area
│ 
│ the buying pressure there would be immense
│ 
│ the same is true for bitcoin's support
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-21 22:56

ethereum's price will very likely retrace upwards once it reaches the core monthly support area

the buying pressure there would be immense

the same is true for bitcoin's support

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-21 22:44:
┌─ and a week later Ethereum indeed falls sharply towards the monthly support 😄
│ 
│ read up my other posts for more detail - if you’re interested in the rationale behind this move
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-21 22:44

and a week later Ethereum indeed falls sharply towards the monthly support 😄

read up my other posts for more detail - if you’re interested in the rationale behind this move

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-13 16:55:
┌─ While Ethereum has built a strong-ish support in the current area, it currently looks more likely to fall towards the ≈$2180 monthly support
│ 
│ Do not underestimate what the new all time highs in gold are telling you
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-21 22:14

silver was another spot-on prediction ✅

2.5 months later the price is up ≈25%

silver's price uptrend will continue

when silver's price increase is in the magnitude of risky assets - it's clearly telling you something

listen to it 🦻

📖 Quoting from 2025-04-04 20:54:
┌─ Silver back to August 2020 price
│ 
│ After a tariffs-induced pullback of 15% today, silver is now at start of COVID prices
│ 
│  So much inflation that still isn’t priced in 
│ 
│ It will recover. And a lot!
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-21 18:52

both, gold & crude oil are finishing their consolidation before a further upside

bookmark this one for later 💾

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-16 13:41:
┌─ “The market is never wrong”
│ 
│ A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything & prices accordingly - even before the official news
│ 
│ Okay.
│ 
│ Now wait & watch crude oil & gold raise up even more in price very soon
│ 
│ This isn’t a joke
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-21 18:48

hello hello looks like there wasn’t much momentum behind ethereum's pullback

the selling pressure is strong

price downside towards $2180 incoming

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-20 19:23:
┌─ 🎯 Ethereum heading down towards $2180
│ 
│ exactly as I’ve been writing for several days
│ 
│ so many accounts with huge following were promising you an immediate bull run
│ 
│ now you know which ones you can mute 😄
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-21 18:42

soooo… new gold ATH next week?

look at gold's price chart with weekly candles - it’s unbelievable 🤯

gold is going up like a risky asset - but it in fact is a reflection of risk

now it looks like a breakout from another consolidation phase 📈

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-13 16:29:
┌─ 🤯 Gold may just go straight to $3500 in the next few hours
│ 
│ Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-21 17:51

although gold already did a lot since this post - this is just the beginning ✨

persistent high inflation is here to stay

FIAT currencies will continue to devalue, specially with the massive government debit refinancing & further interest rate cuts

📖 Quoting from 2025-05-26 15:56:
┌─ All time high for gold incoming…
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-21 17:28

ChatGPT reaffirms its preference for .txt over .html ✅

if your webpage/landing page is loaded with pretty effects and CSS - remember that that is just a layer of obscurity for the LLM

host a plain text version as well - it's simple & effective

≈something akin to llms.txt

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-21 17:13:
┌─ grok confirms what I said regarding .txt format ✅
│ 
│ LLM AI models would LOVE if you website provided the key content in plain text
│ 
│ the good news is that you can vibe-code that feature
│ 
│ text is the universal medium of information, for both, humans and large language models
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-21 17:13

grok confirms what I said regarding .txt format ✅

LLM AI models would LOVE if you website provided the key content in plain text

the good news is that you can vibe-code that feature

text is the universal medium of information, for both, humans and large language models

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-21 16:56:
┌─ although google clearly isn't a fan of plain text 😭
│ 
│ maybe it is:
│ - 0️⃣ performance
│ - 0️⃣ accessibility
│ - 0️⃣ best practices
│ - 0️⃣ SEO
│ 
│ but it still is:
│ - 💯 accessibility
│ 
│ i mean... you can access a text file from literally anywhere
│ 
│ + your favorite LLM will thank you 🥰
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-21 16:56

although google clearly isn't a fan of plain text 😭

maybe it is:
- 0️⃣ performance
- 0️⃣ accessibility
- 0️⃣ best practices
- 0️⃣ SEO

but it still is:
- 💯 accessibility

i mean... you can access a text file from literally anywhere

+ your favorite LLM will thank you 🥰

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-21 16:28:
┌─ 💡FYI there is plain text version of my X posts:
│ https://illya.sh/thoughts/thoughts.txt
│ 
│ a .txt file which you can access on any device - including smart watch & IoT
│ 
│ no need for JavaScript, CSS or HTML rendering - saves electricity 😄🔋⚡️
│ 
│ text is an LLM-native format - so AI models can easily access, index & reason
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-21 16:46

that's something that I intend to open-source, but the repo needs a bit of a cleanup

i've been using it on production, while actively adding new feature for a few months now

it's build so you can customize & evolve for your needs fully with AI

LLM-driven creativity era ✨

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-21 16:41:
┌─ this was fully vibe-coded
│ 
│ i wanted to have a place to backup my X posts - own them under my own domain & be SEO/LLM discovery friendly by having all of content generated statically
│ 
│ it's written in Python & comes with Cursor rules so you can add features without writing code
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-21 16:41

this was fully vibe-coded

i wanted to have a place to backup my X posts - own them under my own domain & be SEO/LLM discovery friendly by having all of content generated statically

it's written in Python & comes with Cursor rules so you can add features without writing code

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-21 16:28:
┌─ 💡FYI there is plain text version of my X posts:
│ https://illya.sh/thoughts/thoughts.txt
│ 
│ a .txt file which you can access on any device - including smart watch & IoT
│ 
│ no need for JavaScript, CSS or HTML rendering - saves electricity 😄🔋⚡️
│ 
│ text is an LLM-native format - so AI models can easily access, index & reason
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-21 16:28

💡FYI there is plain text version of my X posts:
https://illya.sh/thoughts/thoughts.txt

a .txt file which you can access on any device - including smart watch & IoT

no need for JavaScript, CSS or HTML rendering - saves electricity 😄🔋⚡️

text is an LLM-native format - so AI models can easily access, index & reason

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-20 19:29

always important to remember that gold isn’t crypto and volatility is a lot more conservative there 😄

you’re talking central banks balance sheet assets - not so much speculative, hedging or portfolio management

yet, $3500 gold is just around the corner

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-13 16:29:
┌─ 🤯 Gold may just go straight to $3500 in the next few hours
│ 
│ Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-20 19:23

🎯 Ethereum heading down towards $2180

exactly as I’ve been writing for several days

so many accounts with huge following were promising you an immediate bull run

now you know which ones you can mute 😄

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-18 13:48:
┌─ 🎯 Ethereum fell below $2500
│ 
│ first part of my thesis has already played out - a retracement instead of a breakout
│ 
│ weekly candles show constant rejection
│ 
│ now await for what comes next ⏰
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-19 17:20

🛢️crude oil back above $75

 just like I’ve been warning these past few days

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-18 13:51

watch. the. move. 🚀

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-18 13:49

FYI the new BRICS banknote that has been circulating on social media today is NOT real

it’s merely symbolic - NOT legal tender

before a joint currency, there will still be more bilateral trade in local currencies

unless those notes were to tokenize gold

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-18 13:48

🎯 Ethereum fell below $2500

first part of my thesis has already played out - a retracement instead of a breakout

weekly candles show constant rejection

now await for what comes next ⏰

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-18 01:21

everybody has been so focused on oil price, that they largely ignored the decrease in US bond yields across the curve

this trend has been consistent throughout the month

interpretation 🧠: 

short-term sign of run to safety, specially when combined with gold price

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-17 17:20

🛢️ Crude oil back above $72 per barrel

Just as I wrote yesterday

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-16 23:52:
┌─ Oil & Gold back on the rise
│ 
│ Just as I wrote earlier today
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-16 23:52

Oil & Gold back on the rise

Just as I wrote earlier today

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-16 13:41:
┌─ “The market is never wrong”
│ 
│ A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything & prices accordingly - even before the official news
│ 
│ Okay.
│ 
│ Now wait & watch crude oil & gold raise up even more in price very soon
│ 
│ This isn’t a joke
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-16 19:27

Contract-as-product approach

That's an interesting way to name it!

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-16 17:39

aaand crude oil futures are back above $70

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-16 13:41:
┌─ “The market is never wrong”
│ 
│ A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything & prices accordingly - even before the official news
│ 
│ Okay.
│ 
│ Now wait & watch crude oil & gold raise up even more in price very soon
│ 
│ This isn’t a joke
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-16 16:33

BTW I soon realized this wasn’t an actual ATH for gold yet - but it is coming

The historical chart is showing closing prices, not maximum

So I inadvertently compared current price with closing historical price

Good news - more time for you to accumulate gold before new ATH 😄

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-13 14:38:
┌─ 🚀📈 NEW Gold ATH is in - $3440 per oz
│ 
│ I’ve been warning about this for a while
│ 
│ You had a little over a month since my original post to load up
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-16 13:49

💾⏰ Just like with my post about the price of gold a few months ago - feel free to save & set a reminder for this one

The prediction will be correct once again

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-16 13:41:
┌─ “The market is never wrong”
│ 
│ A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything & prices accordingly - even before the official news
│ 
│ Okay.
│ 
│ Now wait & watch crude oil & gold raise up even more in price very soon
│ 
│ This isn’t a joke
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-16 13:47

Shekel is headed down - to sub 4₪/€

Inflation will be a huge problem soon as well

There’s always gold 🤷‍♀️

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-16 13:41

“The market is never wrong”

A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything & prices accordingly - even before the official news

Okay.

Now wait & watch crude oil & gold raise up even more in price very soon

This isn’t a joke

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-13 16:55

While Ethereum has built a strong-ish support in the current area, it currently looks more likely to fall towards the ≈$2180 monthly support

Do not underestimate what the new all time highs in gold are telling you

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-13 16:44

Falling US Dollar index played out exactly as expected

2 months later and it’s down another full point

📖 Quoting from 2025-04-19 12:47:
┌─ 🇺🇸 USD index bearish/in a downtrend
│ 
│ 5Y timeframe weekly chart shows lower highs & lows
│ 
│ Ever since Trump took office, every $DXY weekly candle has been red
│ 
│ Greatest USD economy in history 🫠
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-13 16:39

Interestingly, the yields on US bonds are up across the yield curve - for both, short & long-term maturities

The market - understandably - associated gold, rather than government debt with safety

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-13 16:29

🤯 Gold may just go straight to $3500 in the next few hours

Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-13 14:38

🚀📈 NEW Gold ATH is in - $3440 per oz

I’ve been warning about this for a while

You had a little over a month since my original post to load up

📖 Quoting from 2025-04-25 11:00:
┌─ Now that gold is down & below $3.3K, it’s a good time to say this:
│ 
│ 🎉  New ATH coming very soon 🎉
│ 
│ In the time of political, civil & economic ambiguity - there is only one recourse - Au
│ 
│ Lower interest rates & QE are coming soon - FIAT down, gold up
│ 
│ 💾 Save this & check back
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-13 02:06

I hope you used the earlier advice to prepare for a new gold ATH

The turn around the corner has begun

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-12 00:24:
┌─ 🚀 Are you ready? 
│ 
│ New all time high for gold is just around the corner
│ 
│ And there will already be a strong resistance in the ≈$3300 area, due to the recent accumulation
│ 
│ Low(er) interest rates + high(er) CPI will then push it up even further
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-13 01:57

As expected - 3 months was all that crude oil needed to spike back up

Other commodities like gold, silver & others are up since as well

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-13 01:52

While Gold & Oil are up, Ethereum and Bitcoin are down

As expected. A practical reminder that BTC, ETH & altcoins are NOT reserve assets

I am big believer in crypto & DeFi - but it’s important to remain rational, even if you are entertained

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-12 00:24

🚀 Are you ready? 

New all time high for gold is just around the corner

And there will already be a strong resistance in the ≈$3300 area, due to the recent accumulation

Low(er) interest rates + high(er) CPI will then push it up even further

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-12 00:06

Risk-free rate returns with quant trading strategies may be fairly easy to achieve even with parameter-optimized Bollinger Bands

Not surprising, but unless the return can beat the mid/long-term bond yields - it’s also not very useful 😄

Unless… leverage, of course

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-10 19:38

The Ruble thesis remains valid

Up ≈13% on the USD in the past quarter

📖 Quoting from 2025-04-14 10:21:
┌─ 🚨 Ruble is up 30% on USD 2025 YTD
│ 
│ 82-68 is a strong support - including pre-Ukraine war liquidity
│ 
│ A small pullback is very likely to happen, but in the medium-long term it’s heading towards the 68
│ 
│ Once sanctions are dropped by US & EU - RUB will skyrocket
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-10 17:10

🤯👉 Quant trading secrets they don’t want you to know

On the bright side - the Sharpe Ratio may soon underflow, thus turning it very positive

Still counts, right? 😂

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-06 21:54

There you go 😄

📖 Quoting from 2025-06-06 21:13:
┌─ Observe
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-06 21:13

Observe

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-02 16:15

USD/EUR price action is developing exactly as described 😄

Once price went below the pink trend support line it fell through to 0.8785 exactly, before resuming a steeper downtrend after a failed breakout

📖 Quoting from 2025-05-30 18:11:
┌─ If USD/EUR falls below the pink trend line, it's a fall to ≈0.8785
│ 
│ From here the downtrend towards ≈0.8689 (monthly level) is setup to be resumed & likely under a tighter channel (up: pink, bottom: green) - so a faster downfall of USD against EUR
│ 
│ Stay tuned 📻
└─

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-06-01 19:31

🚀 .txt mirror for my X tweets/posts: 
https://illya.sh/thoughts/thoughts.txt

TL;DR:
👉 plaintext version of my thoughts/tweets
👉 accessible on every device - even smart watch & IoT
👉 LLM-friendly format
👉 UTF-8 encoded text with emojis

UI looks like this:

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-30 18:11

If USD/EUR falls below the pink trend line, it's a fall to ≈0.8785

From here the downtrend towards ≈0.8689 (monthly level) is setup to be resumed & likely under a tighter channel (up: pink, bottom: green) - so a faster downfall of USD against EUR

Stay tuned 📻

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-29 02:38

🇺🇸 Cancelled tariffs means refunds, which means a larger budget deficit

Rising bond yields means that deficit is (even) more expensive to refinance

The FED will soon need inject liquidity via QE + lower interest rates

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-27 15:22

90% of all newly issued debt is for refinancing of existing debt, not new debt/financing

Thus, new debt is extremely inflationary & asset bubble-nurturing

The financial system is extremely leveraged at a high risk

We need to fix this. DeFi is the tool

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-27 14:55

Michael Saylor doesn't need to expose MSRT's wallets for a proof of reserves

All you need is Zero Knowledge Proof attesting that MicroStrategy has access to private key(s) holding a total of X BTC  

With ZKPs - no Bitcoin addresses are exposed ✨

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-26 15:56

All time high for gold incoming…

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-25 21:34

Sustained high bond yields combined with QE will lead to an inflation of equity and risk asset prices

Here's how 👇

1️⃣ High yields = high required base return
2️⃣ Inflow of QE funds into equities & crypto
3️⃣ Equities & cryptocurrency prices increase

Further fuel for the bubble

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-25 20:51

⚡️ US Bond yields directly affect USD liquidity

Here's how 👇

1️⃣ Repo + reverse repo market provides $5 trillion of liquidity
2️⃣ US bonds represent ≈70% of collateral
3️⃣ Lower bond prices means smaller loans, leading to a liquidity squeeze

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-25 18:04

🏦 Quantitative Easing (QE) by a Central Bank (CB) increase both - its assets & liabilities

👇
QE = CB buys securities from commercial banks
👆

This involves:
1️⃣ Transfer of securities to CB (asset UP)
2️⃣ Credit  the bank's reserve account (liability UP)

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-25 16:40

👉 M2 Supply ≠ Liquidity 👈

M2 is only a part of the total liquidity

🔎 Here's an example:
Repurchase agreements market adds ≈$17T in the form of security-backed short-term credit, thus increasing available currency

M2 does not account for the repo market

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-23 21:03

⚡️ Crypto market cap down 2.6% today

Explains the overall pullback across prices. Some went into gold & bonds (yields are down today)

Could head a little lower - but definitely temporary. Expect inflows/increase soon

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-22 19:14

🚀📚 Learn ANYTHING with AI fast:

1️⃣ Screenshot what you don’t understand (e.g. book page)

2️⃣ Open ChatGPT*, attach screenshot & dictate your question - no matter how vague/unclear it is

3️⃣ Recurse & iterate until you understand

Always validate your understanding

* any LLM

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-22 13:06

Gold is having its “calm before the storm” moment 😄

New all time high is coming very soon to all markets close to you

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-22 12:52

Of course - context is always needed

In 2002 Fed Funds Rate was x3 smaller

At that time, rates were higher overall

To find rates as small as in 2002, you’d need to go back to the 1960's 😳

For 15 years now, US had effectively been under QE financing - cheap debt 

🏦🫧

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-22 12:44

🤯 The year is 2002…

US bond yields are at the same high levels as they were in 2002… That’s 23 years ago

In 2002 US national debt was x6 SMALLER than now

5.1% now is not the same as 5.1% before - it’s worse. Much more debt to refinance & pay interest

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-21 22:14

Who’s ready for a new gold ATH? 🙋

You don’t have to guess - just look at the systemic raising bond yields across all maturities & multiple sovereigns

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-21 20:20

🇨🇭Not all European bonds are crashing

The yields on the 10 year Swiss bond is actually down ≈40% over the past 3 months, although up ≈12% over 6 months

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-21 20:12

🚨🇺🇸 30Y bond yield is up 132 bp in 1h

30 year US bond is not only trading above 5%, but had its price fall by ≈1.34% in the short span of 60 minutes

And you thought crypto & meme coins were volatile 😂

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-21 12:48

A month ago me and Gemini 2.5 Pro Deep Research had a disagreement

🇯🇵 Gemini said Japan will continue with QT, while I think they will be back to QE soon

With Japanese bond yields at ATHs - which one of the scenarios do you find more likely? 😁

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-21 11:58

🇺🇸 US bond yields are at their ≈2006 levels

🏦 Current FED Funds rate is about the same as it was in '06

💰 The US Dollar Index is significantly higher today than in '06

High volatility in the bond market became a norm. Volatility & risk go hand-in-hand

Concerning!

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-20 19:21

🚀 Updated My Thoughts Section

Now, each thought has:
👉 A unique shareable page/link
👉 OpenGraph images with the exact text of the thought

So you don’t even need to open the page when reading the thought - it’s in the link's preview

Example:

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-20 14:31

🇺🇸 Good morning,

It’s another green day for US bond yields

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-20 13:06

🇷🇺 Russian Bond Yield Curve Is Inverted

An inverted yield curve is usually a bad sign (e.g. recession)

However, 🇷🇺's fundamentals are healthy

Why inverted? 🇷🇺 Central Bank's 21% key interest rate, or rather the expectation of it going down, is what’s pushing this shape

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-19 13:20

Here's why bond yields skyrocketing worldwide ⬇️

Countries own a lot of US debt (bonds)
Moody's downgraded the US credit rating

Now, countries are at a higher risk of default, because the US debt they own is now less valuable = higher chance of country's default

(simplified)

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-19 12:58

Btw I've since learned that gold is only ≈10% of total reserves of the Portuguese Central bank - that's low

It's 80% of their international reserves - those are basically regulation-defined ratios that banks must maintain (look into BASEL rules if curious)

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-19 12:52

It's very okay to leverage, as long as you are sufficiently hedging the risk. In practice this means that you are explicitly quantifying & accepting a certain percentage of risk in exchange for a certain return/alpha

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-19 12:41

Ever since I wrote this about Japan's easing monetary policy - the yields on 🇯🇵 30 year bonds are up more than x2

Japan heavily relies on debt. Today, Japan has to pay 123% more for that debt than they did 2 years ago

Solutions:
1️⃣ Default
2️⃣ Inflate Yen

Hello inflation 👋

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-19 12:07

Regarding global skyrocketing bond yields - it depends where you’re looking 😄

Sovereign bond yields up: 🇺🇸🇯🇵🇬🇧🇪🇺
Sovereign bond yields down: 🇷🇺🇨🇳

I’ve been posting numerous explanations for of this - all very expected

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-19 09:49

The 5 year gold char is wild 📈

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-19 09:46

30Y US bond yield just crossed 5% 😳

Scraping the ≈5.22% from 2023

👉(Soon) highest yield in >17 years!

Last time yields were consistently this high was 2007. But a lot of QE policies came in force after the 2007-2011 crisis, so rates were naturally higher back then

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-18 18:15

There is also ex-ante Information Ratio, i.e. the expected future IR, based on:

1️⃣ How accurate your forecasts are (IC)
2️⃣ Num independent investments (BR)
3️⃣ How effectively your strategy can be executed(TC)

👉 Allows you to model risk-adjusted prediction of investment returns

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-17 15:00

Information Ratio is a risk-adjusted measure of how good your portfolio performs against the market average/benchmark

📈 Risk=how much your portfolio return deviates from benchmark
💡IR=1: for every 1% of risk there is 1% return
👉Look for IR>1

🔑 metric in quantitative finance

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-12 18:47

🤯 Of course temporary, but still - Gold down 3% today

Outflows into equities

However, some gold-linked currencies like Ruble are up 2.5%

Volatility is a measure of risk. Gold volatility is an expression of the baseline systemic risk

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-12 15:46

It’s a mystery why US bond yields are skyrocketing

Higher yield = higher risk, BUT the US has been doing nothing, but irradiating confidence, respect & cooperation 🤯

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-12 15:40

🇷🇺 Russian Central Bank currently has interest rates at 21%

Yet the yield on a 10Y bond is 15.6%

I’ve previously written that the market is both, pricing in upcoming low(er) rates & paying a premium to stay in Ruble

Today, I found the targets for 2025 & 2026

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-12 15:32

🇷🇺 Budget deficit financing through the National Reserve Fund instead of bond issuance is one of the reasons why Ruble and the Russian bond yields have been doing so good

🇺🇸 $DXY is up - but not against $RUB 🇷🇺

Fundamentals speak louder than words

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-12 15:20

🇺🇸🇨🇳This makes no sense:

1️⃣ USA gets themselves into a net importer, 130% debt to GDP & higher refinancing costs

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 became so dependent on China, that 🇺🇸 economy can’t survive with the tariffs

3️⃣ Now, the (not so good) student is lecturing the teacher?

Why would 🇨🇳 listen?

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-12 14:40

🇺🇸 2Y bond up 3% percent to a 4% yield 😳

10Y yield also up & approaching 4.5%

At least USD index is back above 100 for now

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-10 15:00

⚡️You can now create GOLD from lead⚡️

1g gold = two quintillion dollars ($2 × 10¹⁸)

1 gold ring contains x170 billion more gold that LHC produced over 4 years

Oh, and that newly minted Au fragments into other particles almost immediately 😁

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-09 22:13

🇷🇺 Russia announced that they will cover their 2025 budget deficit not through the issuance of debt via government bonds, but via the National Reserve Fund - funded by natural resource surpluses

👉 Good news for the Ruble, of course

👉 Bond yields went down - 10Y is down ≈-3%

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-09 15:38

How does the Russian government get the oil & gas revenue?

👉 Heavy taxation 👈

So no matter if you’re public or private - you pay for per extracted unit of natural resource

This income is directly tied to the budget & NWF - which is then debited or credited, base on target

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-09 14:40

🇷🇺 TIL Russia has a National Wealth Fund

Excess oil & gas profits are credited to NWF

NWF funds are used to finance government deficit, instead of relying on debt issuance of Ruble (government bonds). Inflation-free deficit financing

🇪🇺 We need this in the EU for Euro

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-09 01:00

Note: the actual raising of the flag happened on April 30th, but May 9th is the day of celebration of Red Army's WW II victory

It’s celebrated today throughout slavic & ex-Soviet countries

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-09 00:58

⭐️ May 9th 1945: The Red Army, lead by Zhukov, raises the Soviet flag over Reichstag

Nazi Germany has been defeated

≈73 million Soviets were killed or injured for the world’s freedom. Today, we celebrate their lives

С Днём Победы! 🥳

🇷🇺🇺🇦🇧🇾🇺🇿🇰🇿🇬🇪🇦🇿🇱🇹🇲🇩🇱🇻🇰🇬🇹🇯🇦🇲🇹🇲🇪🇪

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-02 16:32

🇪🇺👩‍⚖️ EU Securitisation TL;DR

Securitisation of subprime loans was a key factor in 2007-11 financial crisis

EU Regulation 2017/2402 aims to address that by detailing how risk should be managed mathematically & how to distribute it among the parties in securitisation operations

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-02 16:20

WOW

US 10 Year bond yields are up 2.24% today

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-02 13:18

Google + Zero Knowledge Proofs = ❤️🔐

ZKPs will allow you to prove your age to other apps via Google Wallet - e.g. a proof that you are >18

AFAIK you’ll upload your ID, Google BE verifies & signs it

Integrate with @MinaProtocol schemes & Android goes on the 22KB blockchain 😳

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-01 20:56

⚠️It's important not to interpret the net notional futures positions simply as short - bearish, long - bullish

There are several reasons why futures may be short & the sentiment is still bullish - e.g. basis trade, funding fee (for perpetual futures). Same for long/bearish

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-01 20:47

I've said this before, but I'm still amazed daily by how much LLMs have augmented the learning process

A much more efficient way of information retrieval.
Don't overthink the prompts - type or dictate your question, however unclear it is - neural networks will figure it out 🧠

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-05-01 20:29

Covered bonds are issued by a financial institution (e.g. bank) & include a claim on both issuer's assets & an additional collateral in the form of a pool of assets

Investor has double recourse on issuer's default event:
1️⃣ Issuer's assets 
2️⃣ Collateral pool

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-28 21:17

🚨🇺🇸 USD Index UPDATE - it’s down:

As expected - USD index is back down - falling sharply below 98

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-28 16:34

🚨Gold UP - exactly as expected 😁

Today's uptrend continues

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-28 11:05

Catastrophe bonds (cat bonds) work by having an investor pool deposit 100% of collateral and earn ≈risk free rate + premium paid by the insured

If the covered event occurs, investors lose a proportionate part of their principal, as the insured gets repaid from the collateral

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-28 00:51

Basis/carry yield in expiring futures ≈ funding rate in perpetual futures

Both converge futures price with spot via an arbitrage incentive - long undervalued, short overvalued

Profits are realized once at expiry for basis, and periodically for funding rate (e.g. every 8h)

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-27 22:47

⏰ Reminder to do a deep dive into funding rates, if you still haven't

You can earn a yield on futures though delta neutral positions

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-27 21:03

Promissory notes are very simple legal documents, generally 1 page

Unlike bonds, it has no coverants, no trustee & no collateral

Financial markets are defined by legal documents with math formulas/values

Promissory notes are very simple legal documents. It looks like this ⬇️

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-27 20:56

Commercial paper is unsecured short-term debt issued by large, creditworthy companies

In practice, it’s a short-term promissory note - so something a company would use for short-term financing, perhaps for meeting working capital needs

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-27 15:52

🚨 ETH & BTC shorts update:

Short positions on Bitcoin & Ethereum are gradually reducing

Institutional net position on cryptocurrencies is still short, but only a half from the start of the year

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-27 13:36

I asked ChatGPT o3 what will happen to the economy of the US, if USD index goes down & Treasury bond yields go up

It correctly pointed out that for a heavily indebted net importer - these are not good news

However, the risk is far beyond than just stagflation ⬇️

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-27 13:25

CME publishes daily data on physical settlement on gold futures

The problem is that it’s PDFs with numbers

Some interesting alpha factors can be extracted from this 💡

Maybe making a website to visualize, interpret & combine that data would be useful 👀

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-26 15:02

Many boast about US’s higher GDP than EU without looking at the bigger picture

US/EU balance:
🇺🇸 is a net importer from the 🇪🇺

World:
🇪🇺: Net exporter
🇺🇸: Net importer

Debt to GDP:
🇪🇺: 81%
🇺🇸: 123%

Exports as % of GDP:
🇪🇺: 52%
🇺🇸 : 11%

👉 You must always contextualize GDP 👈

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-26 14:48

🚨GDP is a useless metric…

…unless you combine it with additional context

If $1 billion is credited into an economy, a significant portion of that will make it into GDP, thus increasing it. That debt may be low quality/default

You need Debt to GDP, exports to GDP, etc

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-26 10:29

Rest of April was relatively uneventful 😴

≈50% of all gold physical delivery notices were filed on March 28th

I’ve learned that these are typical proportions for 1st notice day

Last intent/notice day is on April 29th

📆 YTD April is the 2nd largest month in terms of volume

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-26 10:15

⚠️ Regarding CME COMEX 100 Gold Futures:

👉 Notice period begins 2 business days before the first day of the contract month

📅 So these are YTD values are starting from March 28th, not April 1st (DLV665-T)

The core idea remains the same - this is just a technicality of TradFi

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-25 14:39

Let’s see how China's US bond holdings evolve from hereon 🇨🇳🇺🇸

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-25 11:30

Regarding the 1492 “gold top” & 533 years breakeven - the information is misleading

These price extrapolations made a lot of assumptions & simplifications

Perhaps most importantly, pre-1700’s gold prices were fixed by the government - not a trade/free market derived price

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-25 11:00

Now that gold is down & below $3.3K, it’s a good time to say this:

🎉  New ATH coming very soon 🎉

In the time of political, civil & economic ambiguity - there is only one recourse - Au

Lower interest rates & QE are coming soon - FIAT down, gold up

💾 Save this & check back

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-24 12:08

Correlation between Ruble & Gold 🇷🇺🥇:

Gold up ➡️ Ruble up
Gold down ➡️ Ruble down
Gold sideways ➡️ Ruble sideways

Russia could make RUB gold-backed, make RUB convertible to gold on demand & position RUB as a “trustless”/money-backed currency

Already halfway through there

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-23 22:45

🇷🇺 Ruble is correlating with gold

This also explains the recent fall in price. Gold went down against USD & so did RUB

Such a retracement after multiple consecutive ATHs is expected

Fundamentals are still on the side of gold

🧠 Remember: gold is 35% of Russia's int'l reserves

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-23 20:08

🇷🇺 Ruble outflows into USD 🇺🇸

A lot of liquidity moved from RUB back into USD. This is also telling by the rebounded USD index

But gold will appreciate further. Russian Central Bank’s massive gold reserves will pay off

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-23 13:05

Upwards retracements for US Dollar Index are normal

$DXY fell to ≈98.3 as I previously predicted

That whole area is a monthly support level, thus a source & trigger for massive amounts of liquidity

It’s not only FOREX, but also the world reserve currency

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-23 12:19

🇺🇸🇨🇳Here's why trade war with China will hurt the US

The economic relationship between US & China is:
1️⃣US pays USD for Chinese goods
2️⃣China re-invests USD back into US bonds

Thus, the same USD comes back to US!

Tariffs = less imports = less US bond investment = higher yield

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-23 12:02

🇨🇳China has been increasing their gold reserves YTD

Gold price keeps going up - major central banks continue to load up

Gold is a hedge against USD. Tariffs are a medium of USD weaponization

👉 Expect US securities sell-off for gold by People's Bank of China

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-23 11:47

🇯🇵Article 13 of Accounting Rules of the BOJ defines special valuation rules for securities:

1️⃣ Yen bonds at amortized cost
2️⃣ Foreign currency bonds at market value
3️⃣ Stocks, ETFs, J-REITs at MA cost

Since gold is not a security, it falls under Article 3 - book value

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-23 11:40

Generally accepted principles of corporate accounting are:

- Historical cost - asset value is recorded at book/acquisition value
- Prudence/Conservatism - decrease the asset value in the balance sheet if it has fallen in value. Unrealized gains are ignored

🇯🇵BOJ abides by them

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-23 11:34

🇯🇵Article 3 of Accounting Rules of the Bank of Japan states that "generally accepted principles of corporate accounting" shall be used for BOJ's accounting

This defines the framework of how assets and liabilities are values in the central bank's balance sheet

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-23 11:30

🇯🇵 BOJ's gold holdings have been constant for 10 years

But gold value has skyrocketed - does that mean Japan has been selling gold?

No. Articles 3 & 13 of Accounting Rules of BOJ imply that gold holdings are recorded at book value/purchase value, rather than market/spot price

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-23 11:13

🇯🇵 Gemini 2.5 Pro Deep Research says Bank of Japan will continue with QT

I say they will switch (back) to QE soon

By QE I mean expansion of balance sheet, combined with low/negative key interest rates

Let's see who's right

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-23 11:04

🇯🇵Bank of Japan just released their 10 day account/balance sheet statements

💰2025 YTD:

- Gold holdings stable
- Foreign currencies down
- Cash up
- JGB down
- Total assets down

Signs of QT, but it won't last. Soon, the balance sheet will expand again. High exposure to USD.

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-23 10:29

A moment of appreciation for how the US Treasury reports the major sovereign holders of securities in this plain HTML table

Clear, lightweight and works on every device

There's also a plain text version, but it's not as neatly formatted

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-22 23:21

🚨 Short-term USD risk is up

Premium/yield is a measure a risk

Imagine you’re purchasing a stock of a company. The CEO of that company makes hostile comments towards its financial division

Does the required return to cover the risk of that company increase or decrease?

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-22 20:29

🚀 Updated https://illya.sh/thoughts/

- Dark/Light mode automatic + toggleable (click on profile image)
- More compact design
- Large image preview (on click) fixed on mobile

My latest X posts are now also live

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-22 17:42

🚀 Pushed an update to my homepage at https://illya.sh/

Added a link to https://illya.sh/thoughts/ to which I have been exporting a lot of my tweets

Making “My Thoughts” button exactly like I wanted took a few iterations and custom contexting with Gemini 2.5 Pro

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-21 15:15

🇷🇺 Russian Central Bank key interest rate is at 21%

3Y Russian Federation bonds are at ≈16.5% yield

The market is pricing in upcoming rate cuts

@AskPerplexity and @grok will tell you that Ruble & Russian economy are in a bad state. The reality is different

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-21 08:06

🚨UPDATE: Gold has now reached $3400

All time highs, followed by more all time highs

Remember: gold is not increasing in value, but rather the underlying currencies are falling in value

Expect this trend to continue

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-21 05:52

🇺🇸UPDATE: USD Index in fact did NOT enjoy this

#DXY down over 1% today, currently at 98.3

It's almost like aggressively weaponizing the currency erodes the trust in it. Who knew!

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-21 04:03

3 days later… and $DXY is at ≈98.3 😁

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-21 00:32

The US Dollar index will not enjoy this 😬

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-20 11:16

🇷🇴 National Bank of Romania's gold reserves are ≈13% of their international reserves as of March 2025

I like how they added the paragraph in red 😁

Gold reserves unchanged - value raising. Get used to this trend

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-20 11:08

🇷🇴 I like how Romania's Central Bank has this image breaking down their international reserves on their homepage

However, I didn’t understand why it links to November 2024 data, when March 2025 data is already available 😁

Gold reserves are ≈12% here

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-19 22:39

Christ is risen!

Happy Easter!

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-19 22:35

Ford F-150 sold 2285 units in China 🇨🇳 

Great Wall Cannon (长城炮) - 80K

Unlike the US or most of the world - China has effective factories & supply chains - offering them a myriad of domestic alternatives

China doesn’t need Ford. Ford needs China due to imported parts

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-19 13:26

🇷🇺 Russian residents are net creditors to the world

In Balance of Payments, financial account tracks transactions involving financial assets and liabilities

Positive value = more capital leaving country than entering

Sanctions make it almost impossible to invest in Russia

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-19 12:47

🇺🇸 USD index bearish/in a downtrend

5Y timeframe weekly chart shows lower highs & lows

Ever since Trump took office, every $DXY weekly candle has been red

Greatest USD economy in history 🫠

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-19 02:33

🇷🇺 Russian government gets a lot of revenue from natural resource exports, such as oil and gas

This means the government has a lot of Rubles to deposit at the Central Bank

👉A big help towards the CBR maintaining negative net claims on the government

Result = strong Ruble 📈

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-19 02:12

🇷🇺 Another reason for a strong Ruble is the consistent negative net claims on general government on the balance sheet of Russian Central Bank

Russian government deposited more in the central bank than borrowed from it - meaning NO monetary financing of budget deficit

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-19 01:21

🇷🇺 Ruble correlates with gold, becoming a hedge against USD

USD falls against both, Ruble & gold

Russian Central Bank has been continuously increasing their gold holdings, which are currently more than 1/2 the size of their foreign currency reserves & 35% of int'l reserves

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-19 01:08

I’ve referred to gold being 35% of Russian Central Bank's foreign currency reserves, when I in fact meant international reserves

The core idea is unchanged - this is a technicality. Central Bank of Russia reports:

International Reserves = Foreign Exchange Reserves + Gold

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-18 09:09

🇺🇸🇷🇺 USD is TANKING against Ruble

… on a daily basis 😳

It’s only partially tariffs. This has been a trend even prior to them

Russia loaded up on Gold & sold off their US securities. Trade with US is negligible 

Russia self-administered an immunity shot

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-18 08:52

🇵🇹 Portugal's Central Bank is LOADED with gold

👉 Gold reserves are >80% of total assets

Props to @bancodeportugal for a healthy balance sheet ratio

From now on - only gold-sprinkled pastéis de nata!

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-17 21:09

🇺🇸🇷🇺 USD/RUB dipped under 82 😳

Combine that with $DXY downtrend & a concerning picture for USD emerges

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-17 15:22

🚨US Dollar Index going to ≈98.3

Current price is a strong monthly level

The next destination is low 98's

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-17 13:47

Grok summarized US tariffs effect very well

As well as what will happen to the US economy, and by extension, US Dollar - the most important currency in the world

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-17 11:01

🚨68-82 is the next range for USD/RUB

A lot of liquidity in that area & expect selling pressure. But there is also selling pressure on the USD

RUB is already up 30% YTD, so expect some pullbacks in the white box region

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-17 10:56

🚨 Ruble falls below 82 against USD

I’ve been writing for a long time about Ruble & the Russian economy, but it’s still crazy to watch it play out live

REMEMBER: Russia is still under heavy sanctions, and it’s virtually impossible to purchase RUB. Once they’re dropped: 📈

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-16 20:48

🥱 Gold hitting another ATH

At this point it’s boring lol

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-16 19:19

Nice catch!

Indeed, the adjusted March deficit is higher. It also means the adjusted February's deficit is lower 

By “adjusted” I mean had the payments not been shifted due to March 1st falling on a Saturday

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-16 18:11

Pushed updates to https://illya.sh/thoughts/ 

The images now lazy load & fixed several issues on desktop

Also updated/synced the content

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-16 16:58

🚨BREAKING: Gold….

Actually, gold has been reaching new ATHs every other day

Not BREAKING anymore - the new normal 🤷‍♀️

Heading for $3.4K now

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-14 12:14

🇪🇺🇷🇺 So how can you buy Russian securities in the EU?

Since 2022 it's unfeasible. IBKR & KIT Finance suspended trading

Deep researching with LLMs now, but it hasn’t been very fruitful so far 🤔

Once the sanctions are lifted you’ll see the prices explode

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-14 10:58

2Y US Bond is a good factor/signal of FED funds rate, but there’s an even better one!

CME's 30-day FED Funds futures is a derivative for this exact purpose. The market prices them according to the expectations of upcoming FED Funds Rates

🔗

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-14 10:27

This is definitely good news short-term for the USD!

Today, short-term funding got 1.25% cheaper for the US government, and once the FED lowers the interest rates, the yields will fall more. Now ofc this will lead to inflation & devaluation of USD, but that’s a a different story

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-14 10:24

Look at that liquidity moving from short-term Chinese bonds(CN01Y), to short-term US bonds(US02Y) 👀

The market liked the removal of tariffs, however, you can’t undo the massive volatility over the past 2 weeks

Moreover, US Dollar index is still below 100

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-14 10:21

🚨 Ruble is up 30% on USD 2025 YTD

82-68 is a strong support - including pre-Ukraine war liquidity

A small pullback is very likely to happen, but in the medium-long term it’s heading towards the 68

Once sanctions are dropped by US & EU - RUB will skyrocket

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-14 10:05

ChatGPT states that a higher interest rate means bad currency & economy

Lower interest rates on the other hand - a flourishing economy

What GPT-o1 failed to mention is that higher interest rates promote savings - a non-inflationary demand

Keynesian economics in its training 🤷‍♀️

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-13 23:33

🚨US 10 Year Bond yield spikes above 4.5% at open

I previously posted about the move of liquidity towards the Chinese bonds

The USD is facing an increased perceived risk, which in addition to the public debt puts questions on its role as the reserve currency

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-13 13:00

Yuan downside party really didn’t last 😳

It went up just as fast as it went down

Yuan up + falling yields on Chinese bonds builds a positive outlook for renminbi

The hinted US securities liquidation/purchase pause by Chinese banks also contributed to this

All expected 🤷‍♀️

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-13 12:53

🚨 Chinese 1 year bond prices are up ≈6%

Two extremes:
🇺🇸Massive selling pressure on US Treasury securities
🇨🇳Massibe buying pressure on MoF Chinese securities

USD-denominated debt is being swapped for Yuan-denominated debt

Tariffs mainly hurt the US (unsurprisingly)

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-13 09:05

Not everything is as it seems 👀

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-12 22:33

1. It will NOT happen
2. What 😂

Imagine swapping a part of the peg of the US Dollar - the world reserve currency - from gold to a highly volatile asset

The US Bond market would crash at record numbers. Same for US Dollar index

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-12 15:31

🇩🇪 Germany's GDP is 1/4 of EU's GDP

There are 27 countries in the European Union. 26 of them combined represent 3/4 of EU's GDP

Germany, France & Italy represent 52% of EU's GDP

You have to be very specific when talking about EU economy 🇪🇺

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-12 07:54

Regarding the bond market collapse ⬇️

US Treasury Securities are the main collateral used in repurchase agreements. Given that these are short-term, the yield spike is unlikely to lead to defaults

However, the fall in bond prices will reduce credit, adding to liquidity crunch

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-12 07:47

Another important fact to mention regarding Russia, is that on top of sell-off of US securities & loading up on gold in record numbers, throughout 2025 Central Bank of Russia has kept interest rates at 21% 🤯

Result = massive savings

However, if EU or US did the same - their economies would collapse overnight

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-12 07:29

Lower USD Index =  USD Devaluation = Higher premium for USD loans = Lower bond prices = Higher bond yields

It’s all connected

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-12 01:28

Looks like “lowest renminbi/Yuan since 2008” didn’t last long 🤷‍♀️

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-11 19:55

🇺🇸 US Treasury bond yields are acting as a risky asset

Over 2% daily moves is something you see in crypto 👀

And I don’t believe the FED will be raising rates - so it’s a market-driven US debt premium increase

Lower rates incoming, but sovereign premium will still increase

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-11 17:25

I think now you understand 😁

Gold hitting ATH after ATH 🎉

Very concerning for USD

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-11 17:00

Here’s a visual of how it looks like

A timeline of thoughts/short-form content/microblog ⬇️

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-11 16:54

Just launched 

I’ll use for short-form posts. Think Twitter/X, but self-hosted under my domain

It’s an MVP and for now contains a subset of X posts. Later I’ll make it real-timish and cross-post some of my content from here

Coded using Gemini 2.5 Pro

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-11 11:34

US Dollar Index $DXY fell below 100 😳

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-11 00:58

To clarify - here you’re stating with US Dollar and then buying either Ruble or Gold. It’s in this scenario that both investments have a similar yield

If you start with EUR, Ruble actually yields more than Gold - 9.3 vs 11% (in the past 3 months)

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-11 00:03

And Ruble is up on Gold since January 🤯

All while Gold is at ATH & it’s extremely difficult to buy ruble or any Russia-issued financial instruments due to sanctions

Loading up foreign reserves with gold & selling US Treasury securities worked ✅

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-10 23:56

It gets crazier 🤯

In the past 3 months, amids the tariff madness - at the time of rush into safe assets - Ruble & Gold head-to-head

You could’ve either bought gold or Ruble & gained 18% in both cases

And buying ruble isn’t easy due to sanctions. Imagine when it opens up

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-10 23:37

Ruble is a gold success story ✨

Sanctions, tariffs, raising M2 - it doesn’t care

Central Bank Of Russia sold off their US bonds & loaded up on gold

⬇️ US bond prices are down
⬆️ Gold is up
⬆️ Ruble is up against USD

Expect this playbook to be repeated by others

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-10 23:30

🚨Financial Stress Index Keeps Going Up

It has now reached COVID-levels

Combine they with the bond sell off, the falling dollar index & you get a worrying picture

The stock market will rebounce/inflate, but that will increase the premium for debt refinancing over time

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-10 21:47

Regulated equities market, which is supposed to be low-risk became as volatile as crypto

Just look at NASDAQ, S&P500 & Co

Every time I open TradingView it’s a +-5%

Maybe more regulations will solve this? 😁

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-08 12:02

🇷🇺 Russia is immune to US tariffs 

Russia's foreign reserves are as follows:
- 0.007% US Treasury bonds
- 35% Gold

Russia exports <1% to the US. Russia is a net exporter

This makes them protected from US sovereign risk (USD devaluation) & trade risk

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-07 23:15

🇪🇺🇺🇸US tariffs present a unique opportunity for EU's capital markets

Billions of $ are flowing out of US markets. Let that liquidity be parked in the EU. All that’s needed is inviting conditions

It can start with a small, less-regulated market subsection to allow seamless foreign funds flow

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-07 23:03

Of course, this also gives China leverage - if The People Bank's of China (China's Central Bank) dumps their US Securities in the market, it will skyrocket bond yields, by reducing their prices

Who will lend to the US then, and at what premium? And at 125% debt to GDP 😬

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-07 22:38

China is the 2nd largest holder of US Treasury bonds - a staggering 23% of their foreign exchange reserves

This makes China extremely exposed to US systemic risk. Which is why tariffs will hit them double hard - at exports and at renminbi/Yuan due to falling #DXY

Not saying they can’t sustain it though

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-07 21:05

For net BTC/ETH futures positions by hedge funds, you can check:

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-07 21:04

Sure, if you:

 Put tariffs
 Lower interest rates
 Remove tariffs

the maket will skyrocket 

But that also means increased:
 Asset bubble
 Inflation
 Public debt/deficit

Tariff income won’t offset it

Monitor the hedge fund's shorts on risky assets, and when the

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-07 20:57

One of the core ideas behind the tariffs is to solve US's the trade deficit by incentivizing other countries to import from the US - I’m deriving this from the “tariff” formula

So by importing more from US - you get lower/no tariffs

That won’t work. Over the medium term the

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-07 18:31

Ruble is up 2.3% on the USD

No tariffs + little US exposure + gold works well

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-07 17:51

edgartools on GitHub

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-07 17:48

Do not browse insider trading SEC filings on EDGAR directly

There’s a Python library called edgartools - much better, cleaner & you can directly extract the data

Now go find alpha factors that you can use next time worldwide tariffs are set

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-07 17:21

TIL that you can pay taxes on vested securities/equities directly with that security

Code F on Form 4

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-07 17:15

Insider Trading Before Tariffs

If you’re curious about how insiders were buying/selling their equity positions, head over to @SECGov's EDGAR & check for Form 4 & 3 filings

Here’s the latest one from $AAPL

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-07 01:28

Silver is down almost 20%

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-07 01:15

Gold is down 6% from its ATH

Still better than equities, crypto & silver

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-06 23:54

🚨BREAKING: S&P 500 Fell to 2021 Prices

#SPX futures / #US500 is down almost 5% since open

≈4 years of gains have been lost

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-06 21:43

Tariffs are just a distraction from the fact that orange juice futures are down over 50% 🍊

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-06 17:34

🇷🇺 #MOEX down 22% since Feb

Expect it to bounce back very soon - as capital is moved away from USA & USD into alt currencies, which includes Ruble

Once the sanctions against Russia are dropped - that’s where Moscow Exchange Index will skyrocket 📈 http

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-06 17:22

🚨 US Yield Curve UPDATE

Despite the falling $DXY, the yield curve is better (less inverted) than a 1y ago, but worse than 1 month ago

Expect a steeper inversion soon

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-06 17:04

This tariffs-induced volatility is the dream of every trader

Clearing houses are banking from fees & comissions

Finally, risky-assets/DeFi/crypto volatility coming to your favorite regulated exchange

What’s even the point of all the regulations in TradFi?

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-06 16:54

🇮🇳 Indian Rupee's M2 supply makes it even worse

Net importer + currency inflation is a recipe for depreciation and external dependence

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-06 15:59

🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 BRICS & Tariffs

Amid the collective chaos there is a group of nations set to benefit from President Trump's tariffs

HINT: it's not the USA ❌🇺🇸

BRICS got geopolitical justification for their existence

Tariff-free zone + local currency trade acts as insurance http

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-06 01:04

🇮🇳 India has accumulated a massive trade deficit

India imports from China, Russia & then exports to USA & UAE. The imports are also similar to exports & a lot of it is re-exports

This deficit isn’t sustainable of course https://t.co

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-05 19:32

$VIX is a measure of expected volatility

It’s computed from option prices. The price of the option is the insurance/premium that the option seller/short charges

So higher option price = protection against more volatility

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-05 18:50

Tbh $VIX isn’t that high (yet )

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-05 18:13

Institutional longs were just reaching 2022 levels at Q2 2024

How do you think Q2 2025 will look like?

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-05 17:05

Hedge Funds & High-Risk Loans

Leveraged loans are loans issued to high debt/risk entities - akin to subprime loans

Tariffs will hurt solvency. Only way out is FED lowering interest rates, so the debt can be refinanced cheaper

Otherwise the house of cards falls

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-05 15:23

Financial Stress Index (FSI) UPDATE

 as expected, the risk is increasing

Sustained volatility will drive the rest up

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-05 14:33

PHYSICAL GOLD RUSH

 It’s not just Central Banks anymore

 In the first 4 days of April 2025, over 52K COMEX 100 Gold Futures contracts have been requested for physical delivery

Only 4 days in & it’s already x2 of January interest

 Physical gold in high demand

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-05 13:43

Source:

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-05 13:43

Silver Physcial Delivery Demand HIGH

 CME's COMEX & NYMEX Metal Delivery Notices show a MASSIVE demand for physical silver

 16.1K futures contract for delivery/physical settlement, up x3 from a year ago

A.K.A. tariffs effect on silver

Investors are HOARDING silver

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-05 00:22

Switzerland 2 year bond yield went negative

Swiss Frank appreciates against major currencies like #EUR & #USD, so investors accept lower (sometimes even negative!) yields

Massive demand for #CHF

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-04 21:31

Russian Ruble vs Euro 

Past 6 months #RUB up against #EUR by 13%

 Ruble is up 34% on Euro since January 2025 (YTD)

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-04 20:54

Silver back to August 2020 price

After a tariffs-induced pullback of 15% today, silver is now at start of COVID prices

 So much inflation that still isn’t priced in 

It will recover. And a lot!

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-04 20:19

🤖 I asked Grok 3 why silver is down today

DeepSearch said that this is likely due to a stronger USD

But #DXY is also down 😂

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-04 20:07

Who’s selling silver? 😭

📉 CDFs are down 15% on the day 🤯

I guess it’s a tariffs freebie 🤷‍♀️

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-04 11:48

🇨🇳China: announces tariffs on 5% of US exports

Bitcoin 🫠:

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-04 11:35

If you think 🇺🇸USD M2 is bad, look at 🇷🇺Russia's

In 3 years, Ruble DOUBLED in supply. Up by a 100%

How come despite this, Ruble maintained its value in FOREX?

The answer is GOLD, more specifically its expansion in the balance sheet of Central Bank of Russia

It works 🤷‍♀️

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-04 11:19

🚨🇺🇸USD M2 Money Supply

⬆️ 790 days to increase M2 by $6.3T
⬇️ 550 days to decrease M2 by $1.1T
⬆️ 500 days to increase M2 by $1.1T

⏯️ QE never stopped, it merely paused

When inflation is blamed on tariffs, keep this in mind

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-04 11:05

🚨🇺🇸 USD M2 Money Supply is almost back at pre-interest rate increase levels

That QT didn’t last after all 🤷‍♀️

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-03 19:08

Remember: FIAT currencies come & go

✨ Only Gold remains ✨ http

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-03 18:33

🚨 Financial Stress Index Tariffs Update

Trump/US tariffs so far:
⬇️ Equity valuation down
⬆️ Volatility up
⬆️ Safe assets up
⬆️ Credit spread up

📈 A perfect setup for the increase of OFR's Financial Stress Index

Let’s see - it’s updated with a 2 day delay

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-03 17:28

🇪🇺 The best countermeasure that EU can take is swapping US securities for Gold

Gold is inversely correlated with USD. Such a decision can be done today and it will:

1️⃣be a response to the US
2️⃣increase value of EUR
3️⃣minimize consumer impact

Anything else will hurt the economy

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-03 13:31

🤯 USD/EUR down 3 cents overnight

🇺🇸 An immediate response to Trump/USA import tariffs

This is Bitcoin-level volatility in FOREX

Volatility is a measure of risk. What does this mean for the US Dollar?

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-02 23:49

🚨 Bitcoin Reacts To US Tariffs:

As expected, a massive BTC sell-off post Trump's tariffs announcement

The price peaked during the speech, and then dumped down more than 6% so far + US dollar index is down

A move away from riskier assets & USD into Gold & foreign currencies https://

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-02 23:04

🚨 🇷🇺🇨🇳🇪🇺🇯🇵 reacting to US tariffs

The initial FOREX response to tariffs is a net outflow from #USD

US dollar fell against major currencies. The Euro fell against both the Chinese Yuan/renminbi & the Russian Ruble

Interesting, but expected having #RUB & #Yuan gain from this https://

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-02 21:56

🔴 $BTC, $DXY & $XAU during Trump's tariffs speech

Interesting to observe the negative correlation between Bitcoin & US Dollar Index

Gold wasn’t clearly correlated with either. This makes sense - the tariffs lead to uncertainty regarding the reserve currency & central bank… https://t.co

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-04-02 18:00

🚨 JUST IN: $87K Bitcoin

This is just a pre-tariffs announcements pump that will sell off once Trump speaks in a few hours, right? 😁

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-31 15:34

🚨Trump’s Tariffs Update - 🇨🇳, 🇯🇵, 🇰🇷

Not only tariffs are tanking the US economy, but their strongest partners are looking elsewhere

Unsurprisingly, Asia will find other buyers for their products - they have the upper hand, not 🇺🇸 or 🇪🇺 - a result of perpetual import deficits…

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-29 00:42

🚨Update on Ethereum shorts:

Latest data shows that institutional investors reduced their short exposure by ≈60%

Not necessarily bullish - a lot of it is taking profits from the record net short positions

+ $1900 is a key weekly support level for #ETH, so a rebound is normal

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-27 16:18

📉 S&P 500, Motor Industry, NASDAQ, Bitcoin - all down 

🥇Meanwhile gold hitting ATHs: http

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-27 15:29

🇺🇸 So the car tariffs are also inflationary

USA cars get credit incentives, by making interest payments tax deductible

So this means more expensive cars + more credit availability for them

You can’t make this up 😳

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-26 22:36

🎉 Congratulations to the American consumer who now has 2 options:

1. Pay 25% more for the car they want
2. Pay <25% more for a lower-quality domestically produced car

+ The income tax is here to stay ✌️

And you thought the Biden administration was doing questionable moves 😂  htt

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-26 21:30

Architecting your balance sheet around highly speculative & volatile instruments is a good idea, until it isn’t 💖

Although with 0% coupon the burden here is mostly on the investor 🤷‍♀️

The stock market is starting to resemble a casino more every day….  http

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-26 21:01

✅ It’s confirmed

You can now fully automate niche meme pages

With carefully crafted prompts and context it can generate a lot traffic and organic engagement

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-26 20:45

Today, I asked GPT-4o to create a meme about vibe coding

But you may need to be an AI language model to understand it 😳

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-26 20:25

The new GPT-4o image generator is cool, but who else thinks that in the next week or so some open-source Chinese model will it to dust? 😂🇨🇳

You can probably already find something close to it on huggingface

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-26 03:45

🤯 GPT-4o new image gen is surprisingly good at generating comics & memes

Here’s an xkcd style webcomic about vibe coding ⬇️ http

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-25 21:13

Do you face the same philosophical issues with your cat?

I don’t think she sees the irony 😡

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-25 20:50

2nd attempt was much better 😁

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-25 20:49



~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-25 20:48

The new GPT 4o is also quite good as an image editor

It’s able to fairly accurately replicate & alter subjects

But maybe they should increase their training set on the anatomy of cats 😂

(expand the image) http

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-25 20:23

The new GPT 4o image generator is impressive!

You can ask ChatGPT to generate a UI design, and then pass it to Cursor/Claude/V0 for implementation

Character accuracy makes a big difference

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-25 16:30

Microcontrollers fostered IoT - Internet of Things

Vibe coding is fostering IoV - Internet of Vulnerabilities

But IoT is already IoV 😁

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-25 13:41

🫧 Debt bubble about to pop

Borrowing is increasing & collateralization is decreasing

These are symptoms of a highly leveraged economy

Lowest (over)collateralization rate in 10 years. Surely a lot of that is caused by the huge amount of cheap credit issued during COVID, which… http

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-25 13:27

📈 Institutional investors have increased their reverse purchase agreements exposure ever since the central bank interest rates spiked

Repos are shorter-term loans, meaning they present a shorter commitment, thus less risk

Another message is clear: institutions are expecting…

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-25 10:10

Hedge funds are shorting $ETH in record numbers 😳

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-21 15:01

With the inflation trend…

not impossible 🤣🤣

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-21 12:45

Over 10 years the Russian Central Bank has increased gold holdings by x4.5

🇷🇺 Gold is now 35% of all international reserves held by Russia 🤯

🇺🇸 Comparatively, for USA the number is 5%

This is why Russia and Ruble have been so resilient to sanctions

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2025-03-16 16:49

Just found GUN, already prototyping

It enables a decentralized, reactive, real-time, shared graph layer allowing you to build dApps right in the browser

Every visitor/user of your web app becomes a peer in the network of your application. The peers can communicate events &…

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⏰ 2025-03-09 21:42

Oh btw, this was also about option pricing

These bonds acted as synthetic call options, which were priced below the market value of calls on $MSTR at the time

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⏰ 2025-02-27 17:43

Yeah crypto & stocks is fun, but have you tried orange juice futures? 😂

Almost 50% down since December 🤨 http

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⏰ 2025-02-12 13:29

I’m working on an Agent and was debugging why the responses from the LLM come as null/empty

Turns out function calling is currently broken on DeepSeek ☹️

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⏰ 2025-02-03 13:09

🤯 Think about all of those US market outflows due to DeepSeek, Qwen & Co.

$NVDA's & other AI-related stock crash wasn’t just about cheaper AI-compute. The outflow also represents funds that may be potentially invested in the Chinese market

This point is often omitted 🤫 https://

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⏰ 2025-01-22 16:46

Running LLM models locally really makes you appreciate the “unlimited” bandwidth, which is a standard offering in most EU countries

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⏰ 2024-12-31 15:12

Are you building DeFi in the EU? Here’s what you need to know ⬇️

At the time of conceptualizing this “liquid futures protocol” I didn’t even know where to start with regard to its legal compliance

A few days ago I finalized a paper exploring how one can legally launch on-chain…

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⏰ 2024-12-25 16:44

🇪🇺 The future of Web3 & DeFi in the EU 🇪🇺

Legal compliance is fundamental for wide adoption of Web3 & DeFi. While security audits of DeFi protocols are a common practice, the same is not true for regulatory compliance audits

All investment services in the EU, including those… https://

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⏰ 2024-12-14 16:29

🚨JUST IN: Quantum Computer Hacked #Bitcoin

Satoshi Nakamoto has been suspiciously quiet since the news broke out 🤫

According to experts on social media, the recent advancements in quantum computing have just made Bitcoin obsolete. Of course, neither the market, nor…

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⏰ 2024-12-02 16:34

Bad news for #USD 👎

The value of a currency is a direct reflection of the organic demand for it. Sanctions will decrease the demand for US Dollar, via disincentives 

Plus, it’s the US consumer that will be paying for the tariffs, not the BRICS countries 🤷‍♀️

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⏰ 2024-11-24 15:06

👉 Sold at par
👉 0% coupon
👉 Unsecured debt
👉 Option to convert to equity at $672/share

For the loan of the principal you’re getting an option to buy $MSRT stock at $672 in 2029 - 60% higher than the current share price of ≈ $420

Why not just buy $BTC directly? 🤷‍♀️

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⏰ 2024-11-21 12:27

Very interesting alternative USD market

Usual flow:
🇺🇸 buys oil from 🇸🇦, 🇸🇦 reinvest excess back into UST

New flow:
🇸🇦 reinvests excess into 🇨🇳-issued USD bonds

Result:
USD flows to 🇨🇳, instead of 🇺🇸, as the USD-denominated debt (bonds) are issued directly by 🇨🇳

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⏰ 2024-11-15 10:15

Part of Bitcoin's value derives from the total electricity cost of maintaining a decentralized, trustless, immutable ledger of transactions for >15 years

20% of GDP is spent on financial services. Blockchains remove intermediaries & improve efficiency

It’s apples to oranges 🤷‍♀️ https:/

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⏰ 2024-11-05 21:36

🚀🎧 Podcast covering #BRICS Currency on the blockchain is out!

🔗🔈: 

🤖 Smart contracts & #DeFi are an ideal match for #BRICSPay showcased at #BRICS2024 summit. Podcast & article exply why

🎤 AI Audio created with NotebookLM  https://

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⏰ 2024-10-27 17:40

🇯🇵🎧 Added an audio version of the article

It’s an AI-generated podcast of the article using NotebookLM audio overview with custom sources & instructions

🔗   http

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⏰ 2024-10-27 15:50

1/10 🇯🇵 Ever wondered how Japan protects deposits when banks fail?

🤯 Their deposit insurance system handled 180+ financial institution failures, including the massive 90's banking crisis

👉 Here's how Japan's ¥10M deposit guarantee scheme works: 

🧵

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⏰ 2024-10-22 09:25

Something tells me this will be an interesting session 👀

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⏰ 2024-10-19 12:52

👀 Tried out the BRICS Pay demo. Gold/#XAU is one of the supported currencies (the only real money in the list!)

🌏 To be supported cross-border, within every member nation

💳 You can use VISA/Mastercard to load up your account

🇪🇺We urgently need an akin system in the #EU

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⏰ 2024-07-27 00:46

proof of everything.

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⏰ 2024-07-03 15:42

Public petition to call them MinaFTs 😄

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⏰ 2024-06-23 16:28

If you think you understand futures contracts, you must learn bond futures

Besides some differences, like dynamic settlement price, you will quickly realize how much #DeFi improves over #TradFi

The future of finance is on-chain

Simplicity, transparency & efficiency http

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⏰ 2024-06-12 18:16

📚 Learning how derivatives are priced will make you realize that all the models are based on financing with an interest rate (IR). Future value of a derivative is discounted with an IR.

Where does this extra money come from? 

🔎 Hint: 
you may see it manifest as #inflation 😉

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⏰ 2024-06-10 12:08

Forward rates compute the borrowing cost of money for a future period. They're derived from the existing interest rates in the market. Useful to compare investments, arbitrage on lend/borrow positions and even predict future inflation value

Here’s the concept visualized 👇

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⏰ 2024-06-07 10:18

And the first rate cut comes from the European Central Bank (#ECB)

Federal Reserve (#FED) coming up next

A few days ago I tweeted about how a rate cut is imminent, as suggested by the Treasury Bond rates falling below the overnight exchange rate👇

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⏰ 2024-06-04 12:48

Reaaaaady. Let’s go hardfork

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⏰ 2024-06-03 20:59

Besides inflation there is also discounting, which measures the time value of money

Discounting states that money today is worth more than tomorrow, since it can be invested to earn an interest

You can compute today’s value of future money using the formula below 👇

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⏰ 2024-06-02 23:03

🔴 Every time the Treasury Bond rate (#DGS10 / #US10Y) raises above the Fed Funds Rate (#FEDFUNDS / #EFFR), the Fed Funds Rate decreases dramatically

Historically, this has always been the case
and this is exactly what's happening now

Expect a rate cut from the #FED very soon

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⏰ 2024-06-02 16:19

Treasury rates (Treasury Bills & Bonds) are risk-free, but they do not represent the risk-free rate, as they have artificial incentives. The risk-free rate must represent the true cost of borrowing money. Overnight exchange rates are a much better measure of the risk-free rate. http

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⏰ 2024-05-30 18:57

🌍 Imagine 24/7 global video surveillance that doesn't compromise privacy

🤯 Sounds impossible?

😎 Zero-Knowledge Proofs disagree

Here's why 🧵👇

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⏰ 2024-05-27 14:13

Linguistic vocal communication is such a wild concept 🤯

Like, I can take an abstract concept that I have in my mind, transform it into vibrations, transmit it wirelessly over air and have another individual parse it back into a similar abstract concept, now in their mind

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⏰ 2024-05-26 13:01

🚨 PRIVACY IS A MYTH! 🕵️‍♂️

Digital privacy is fundamentally unfeasible, unless we rely on verifiable computation constructs like Zero-Knowledge Proofs (#ZKP) 🔐

A thread 🧵 on why ZKPs are the key to true digital privacy 👇



#Privacy #ZeroKnowledge #Web3

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⏰ 2024-05-24 11:24

Advanced prompt injection technique for GitHub Copilot GPT-4 😆

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⏰ 2024-05-23 10:25

GPT-4 outperforms both, carbon-based financial analysts (humans) and purpose-specific ANNs

While the former is understandable, the latter is surprising. The broader context of an LLM appears to be more important than the specialized multi-dimensionality of an ANN

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⏰ 2024-05-20 15:03

🔴 GDP is a useless metric 🔴

A country may resort to debt, inject that debt into the economy, and see nominal GDP figures raise, without producing value. This is a recipe for an economic bubble

Debt-to-GDP ratio presents a much clearer picture (smaller is better)👇

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⏰ 2024-05-20 14:37

I invite you to check your country's net exports as a % of GDP and be surprised 😳

GDP comprises of numerous measures, some of which don’t have any relation to the produced value

Net exports provide a more objective measure of self-sustainability and relative value

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⏰ 2024-05-14 15:36

Mina's Got Recursion

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⏰ 2024-04-29 22:44

Additional insights from a practical perspective can be found here 👇

🔗

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⏰ 2024-04-28 19:28

🚀 BRICS Digital Currency: Cryptocurrency on a Public Blockchain 🪙

In this article, we explore how the #BRICS currency can be implemented on a public #blockchain and challenge the claims made in "Digital Money Options for the BRICS" for #Web3  🧵👇

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⏰ 2024-04-22 12:13

Get ready for June 👀

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⏰ 2024-04-14 13:28

🔍 Ever wondered how zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs ACTUALLY work under the hood? 🤔

🔐 These #ZeroKnowledge protocols offer a novel way to PROVE computations without revealing the computation itself! 🤯

⛓️ Native match with #blockchain

🧵 Let’s dive in 👇

http

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⏰ 2024-04-13 18:28

zkSNARKs & zkSTARKs: Disrupting Verifiable Computation 

 Explore how these #ZeroKnowledge protocols SURPASS the #EVM's model, opening a world of possibilities for #Web3 applications

 Deep dive ARTICLE 



 Let's unravel the key insights

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⏰ 2024-02-01 19:28

Likewise! Very fun and insightful.

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⏰ 2024-01-30 14:40

Great idea! A use-case leveraging one of the unique value-propositions of the verifiable computational model offered by Zero-Knowledge Proofs and recursive zkSNARKs

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⏰ 2024-01-29 08:27

It’s easy to blame it on the devs or the ecosystem. A fair assessment compares solutions within the ecosystem. Good, innovate and disruptive solutions? Likely a dev issue. If not - the ecosystem. Remember to take the critical mass into consideration

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⏰ 2024-01-28 17:35

Individuality isn’t about opposing the majority. It’s about thinking for yourself

In product, it’s not about doing something or avoiding something. It’s about doing what increases value, and not doing what diminishes value

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⏰ 2024-01-23 17:42

Very interesting to see the #BitcoinEFT used as a liquidity exit

And only a few days ago the supply APY on most FIAT stable coins was over 20% on #AAVE You could mistake this for a bullish sign, in an apparent short of FIAT for #crypto

Always analyze the big picture

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⏰ 2024-01-13 09:55

A good software engineer follows the best practices. A great software engineer follows the best practices which are compatible with the goal, the mission, and the vision. In practice this makes suboptimal architecture acceptable in exchange for flexibility.

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⏰ 2024-01-08 21:28

The point of software is to be able to iterate fast. 100% of software can be replaced with hardware, but nobody wants to hardcode circuits (except for the #ZK crowd 😄). Iteration is its value proposition

This is why software products that take years to deliver don’t make sense

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⏰ 2024-01-07 19:22

A little trip into circular dependencies in TypeScript will make you appreciate Python's local imports even more

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⏰ 2024-01-06 13:07

Extending with a personal thank you one more time 💜

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⏰ 2024-01-06 13:07

Extending with a personal thank you 💜

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⏰ 2024-01-06 11:26

Just to re-iterate on this further: the iPhone's 0-click exploit broke the ARM processor's authentication mechanism for pointers, thus allowing the malware to perform arbitrary signatures of arbitrary pointers, thus breaking their authentication & integrity guarantees  http

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⏰ 2024-01-06 00:02

A small insight into the meticulous care that is necessary in designing #DeFi tokens with sound economic value principles ⬇️

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⏰ 2023-12-30 15:44

🟢 The first battery of tests has just been launched!

🔵 Authenticated metadata commitments are coming too. This will allow for a cryptographic association between metadata and the geolocation

🟣 Such features are infeasible without the recursive zkSNARK architecture of $MINA

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⏰ 2023-12-29 23:44

#DeFi only makes sense with private data. This is infeasible on Ethereum, but trivial on $MINA.

Zero-Knowledge will lead to mass adoption of #DeFi, enabling its Cambrian explosion.

Of course, you can also bridge $MINA to Ethereum. This is by design. 

Big things are coming.

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⏰ 2023-12-29 23:03

No Tests = No Code
No Abstracted Tests = No Tests

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⏰ 2023-12-29 21:54

The negative connotation associated with “weirdness” is a product of insecurity and fragile ego.

Always remember: your ego can be trained and developed through deliberate mental and physical effort.

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⏰ 2023-12-29 18:27

I’m not fanboying. Once you think deeply about it will all make sense

#ZKP #Web3

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⏰ 2023-12-11 23:23

If you only understood how cheap $GOLD is now. To put it in perspective, its current FIAT price only reflects inflation prior to 2011 🤯

Any direct or indirect inflation following that time period has not yet been accounted for

You don’t have to trust me. Trust the price action

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⏰ 2023-10-26 19:55

🤯 Zero-Knowledge cryptography is how the blockchain will connect to the outside world. As the ZK field matures, so will the blockchain use cases. Two computation models that were meant for each other.

#zk #blockchain #evm #crypto #mina #Bitcoin #smartcontracts

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⏰ 2023-08-16 00:18

Unlock the secret to predicting any asset's price! The 30-day federal funds rate futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is the key. Learn how to use this unique indicator for profitable trading in this video. #Trading #Investing #Cryptocurrency #Futures

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⏰ 2023-03-15 16:29

🚨📈 #Crypto DOWN‼️

Exactly as I pointed out yesterday

💡Markets are very easy to predict, you just have to listen at what they’re saying

Always remember: #DeFi on-chain data is your friend

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⏰ 2023-03-15 00:56

🚨📈 FIRST INDICATION OF #CRYPTO DOWNTREND

$ETH supply APY at 3% on #AAVE, the highest value this month

🩳The market is starting to short $ETH

💡REMINDER: Unfollow everyone saying that #Bitcoin is in a #BullMarket, as they have no idea what they are talking about

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⏰ 2023-03-13 17:57

🚨📈A bounce back into the upper part of the previous weekly rectangle is NOT a #BulMarket signal

#Bitcoin will fall back down. So will the rest of the #crypto. Lower than previously

Prepare your #shorts

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2023-03-13 17:47

🚀 #Bitcoin #BullMarket CONFIRMED 

🚨 You MUST unfollow every single person saying that Bitcoin and #crypto entered a bull market, because they have no idea what they are talking about

➡️I challenge anyone to show me a single sign of reversal. There is none #TA

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2023-03-13 04:36

🚨📈 The failure and the bailout of $SVB and $SIVB has shifted the market's sentiment towards the #FED Funds Rate

A rate hike now seems less likely

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2023-03-13 04:12

🚨 Despite the Goldman Sachs's statement regarding rate hikes and bank bailouts, currently the market is fully expecting a rate hike by 25bps

Although things may change, specially with the Biden's speech

In either case, QE is not yet back, so no bull market for #Bitcoin

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2023-03-12 20:32

Failing banks will tank price of #Bitcoin down with them, because most of money in Bitcoin are loans from those same banks

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2023-03-12 19:28

🚨 $PAXG is trading at an $80 premium over $GOLD

The market sentiment is clear: there is a run from #crypto into #gold

Selling your cryptocurrency for $PAXG is a good hedge against both, #Bitcoin and $USD

You can always buy it back for a profit after

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2023-03-12 15:54

🚨📈Bank failures will NOT drive $BTC price up

Most of crypto is financed by DEBT

As banks like SVB are failing, both the stock market and crypto prices will fall on Monday 

How to profit:
1️⃣ Short #crypto
2️⃣ Buy #gold
3️⃣ Swap crypto for gold

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2023-03-12 04:13

🚨📈 $USDT APY on #AAVE is 60%

This means that people are shorting $USDT. The  market sentiment is that $USDT is overpriced.

How to profit:
1. Short $USDT
2. Lend $USDT for a high APR. Should last until Monday
3. Do both

This happened because of the depeg of $USDC

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2023-03-11 04:02

🚨📈 $USDT liquidity on #DEX pools decreased to almost ZERO, while $USDC liquidity almost doubled

This is a result of mass swapping of $USDC for $USDT

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2023-03-11 03:48

🚨🔥 Over $1.5 billion $USDC have been burned in the last 8 hours

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2023-03-11 02:58

🚨📈 $USDC is the 2nd smart contract with the most gas usage on #Ethereum, second only to #Uniswap

$USDT is 4th,  since massive swapping from $USDC to $USDT is taking across all pools in #DEX 

Depegging of $USDC can lead to the collapse of other #stablecoins and #crypto prices

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2023-03-11 02:33

🚨📈 $USDT reserves are depleting across all #DEX pools that have $USDC. 

It’s not just the #3pool on #Curve, #SUSD pool is in the same situation.

This is a result of massive liquidation of $USDC, due to SVB's collapse.

The depegging seems to be more likely by the minute 😳

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2023-03-11 02:26

🚨📈 $USDT reserves at the $USDC / $USDT 0.01% pool on #Uniswap are depleted 😳

This indicates a massive $USDC liquidation. 

A lot of news saying that $USDC is safe despite #SVB collapse, but the market seems be saying otherwise…

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2023-03-11 02:14

🚨📈 $USDT reserves at #Curve's #3pool dropped below 3%!!

This is the reason why $BUSD is trading below $USDT at #Binance 

It’s caused by mass swap of $USDC to $USDT across the DEXes. Same happening on #Uniswap

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2023-03-11 02:02

🚨📈 Mass $USDC to $USDT swapping has caused $BUSD to fall below $USDT by more than 1%

As $USDT reserves across #DEX are depleting, it’s also affecting #CEX like #Binance 

This is a result of the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank, where $USDC has reserves

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2023-03-11 01:47

🚨 $USDT reserves at #Curve are almost depleted, with less than 4% of it remaining in the #3pool

This is another sign of massive swapping of $USDC for $USDT, due to the collapse of #SVB

$USDC depegging is on the horizon!

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2023-03-11 01:23

🚨 $USDC trading below $USD and $USDT above $USD

Looks like everyone is swapping $USDC for $USDT because of #SVB collapse

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2023-03-10 21:05

Saying that Silvergate represents crypto is like saying that you represent the US Dollar, because you have them in your wallet.

Not a single DEX collapsed for the same reasons. DeFi is building the best financial system in history.

#bitcoin #crypto #defi #dex

~ ✨ ~

⏰ 2023-03-05 22:20

Navigating the world of DeFi without a deep understanding of the economic and monetary theory is akin to navigating an unknown city without a map. Just because the buildings are made of the same material as in your hometown, doesn’t mean you’ll find your way through #DeFi #crypto 

~ ✨ ~