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<rss xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" version="2.0"><channel><title>Illya Gerasymchuk | Threads on Macro, Market Structure, Bitcoin &amp; Commodities</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/feed.xml</link><description>Articles on finance, monetary policy, liquidity plumbing, financial market structure, commodities, Bitcoin, crypto markets, machine larning, and agentic AI systems.</description><atom:link href="https://illya.sh/threads/feed.xml" rel="self"/><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><docs>http://www.rssboard.org/rss-specification</docs><generator>ASCII Thoughts Threads RSS Generator</generator><image><url>https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/favicon.png</url><title>Illya Gerasymchuk | Threads on Macro, Market Structure, Bitcoin &amp; Commodities</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/</link></image><language>en</language><lastBuildDate>Wed, 11 Mar 2026 18:04:57 +0000</lastBuildDate><managingEditor>hello@illya.sh</managingEditor><webMaster>hello@illya.sh</webMaster><item><title>🚀 The Bitcoin Ordinal Protocol Explained: an innovation which allows for tracking, trading, and collecting digital assets on the Bitcoin network!</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/the-bitcoin-ordinal-protocol-explained-an-innovation-which</link><description>⚡️Powers BRC20 &amp; SBC20  💥 Let's dive into this fascinating protocol and explore its significance Blockchain Crypto   (a thread 🧵)</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;⚡️Powers BRC20 &amp;amp; SBC20&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;💥 Let&amp;#x27;s dive into this fascinating protocol and explore its significance Blockchain Crypto &lt;br/&gt; (a thread 🧵)&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-bitcoin-ordinal-protocol-explained-an-innovation-which.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-bitcoin-ordinal-protocol-explained-an-innovation-which" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-10 16:31&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🤔 What is Ordinal Theory? It&amp;#x27;s a protocol for assigning serial numbers to satoshis, the smallest unit of a bitcoin, and tracking their transactions. Imagine giving each satoshi a unique identity, like a collectible item! 💎🔗&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/what-is-ordinal-theory-its-a-protocol-for-assigning-serial" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-10 16:31&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🛠 Does Ordinal Theory require a side chain, separate token, or changes to Bitcoin? NO! It works right now with only bitcoin as the token, making it a seamless addition to the ecosystem.🌱🔄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/what-is-ordinal-theory-its-a-protocol-for-assigning-serial" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-10 16:31&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🔑 The power of Ordinal Theory: Collecting, trading, and scheming!🤝 By assigning identities to satoshis, they become individually trackable and tradable for numismatic value. Plus, it enables inscriptions: a protocol to attach content to satoshis! 🎨🔐&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-power-of-ordinal-theory-collecting-trading-and-scheming" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-10 16:31&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🧩 How does it work? Ordinal numbers are assigned to satoshis as they&amp;#x27;re mined. A simple algorithm is used to determine how satoshis move from inputs to outputs in transactions, maintaining their unique identities. 💹🔀&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/how-does-it-work-ordinal-numbers-are-assigned-to-satoshis-as" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-10 16:31&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;⚠️ The key differences between Ordinal Theory&amp;#x27;s inscriptions and Ethereum NFTs:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;- Inscriptions are always immutable🔏&lt;br/&gt;- Content is always on-chain💾&lt;br/&gt;- Inscriptions are simpler and more secure🛡️&lt;br/&gt;- They&amp;#x27;re scarcer, unlocking new markets💰&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-key-differences-between-ordinal-theorys-inscriptions-and" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-10 16:31&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🧪 Comparisons to other platforms: Ordinal Protocol has been designed specifically for digital artifacts, offering a simpler and more polished user experience compared to second-layer asset protocols like RGB and Taro. 🖼️🌟&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/comparisons-to-other-platforms-ordinal-protocol-has-been" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-10 16:31&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;👩‍🎨 Why inscriptions matter for artists: They&amp;#x27;re on Bitcoin (high status), have cheaper on-chain storage, unlock new liquidity, and are designed specifically for digital artifacts. This offers unique advantages compared to other NFT platforms. 🎭🚀&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/why-inscriptions-matter-for-artists-theyre-on-bitcoin-high" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-10 16:31&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🌍 In conclusion, the Ordinal Protocol on Bitcoin opens up new possibilities for tracking, trading, and collecting satoshis, as well as creating digital artifacts. It&amp;#x27;s a valuable addition to the blockchain ecosystem! 🌟🌊&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/in-conclusion-the-ordinal-protocol-on-bitcoin-opens-up-new" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-10 16:31&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/the-bitcoin-ordinal-protocol-explained-an-innovation-which" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/the-bitcoin-ordinal-protocol-explained-an-innovation-which</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 10 May 2023 15:31:15 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>What if I told you that Bitcoin is not just about money, but it can also store arbitrary data?</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/what-if-i-told-you-that-bitcoin-is-not-just-about-money-but</link><description>In this thread I will explain in detail the fascinating world of Ordinals  and Inscriptions, where individual satoshis become more than just digital currency</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;In this thread I will explain in detail the fascinating world of Ordinals  and Inscriptions, where individual satoshis become more than just digital currency&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/what-if-i-told-you-that-bitcoin-is-not-just-about-money-but.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/what-if-i-told-you-that-bitcoin-is-not-just-about-money-but" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-17 19:39&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🧠 Ordinal Theory assigns serial numbers to satoshis, the smallest unit of Bitcoin. These ordinal numbers are assigned in the order satoshis are mined, giving each a unique identity and opening the door to a world of possibilities&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ordinal-theory-assigns-serial-numbers-to-satoshis-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-17 19:39&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;📝 An inscription is an arbitrary piece of data attached to an individual satoshi, transforming it into a Bitcoin-native digital artifact. It&amp;#x27;s like a digital signature, representing something unique and valuable&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/an-inscription-is-an-arbitrary-piece-of-data-attached-to-an" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-17 19:39&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🔍 We can track a single satoshi using these inscriptions. This allows us to trace its journey across transactions, from one taproot address to another. The first satoshi of the first output becomes the vessel for the inscription&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/we-can-track-a-single-satoshi-using-these-inscriptions-this" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-17 19:39&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🌱 Taproot addresses play a crucial role in enabling inscriptions. They leverage the power of the Taproot upgrade on the Bitcoin blockchain, providing the necessary flexibility to store arbitrary content within a transaction&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/taproot-addresses-play-a-crucial-role-in-enabling" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-17 19:39&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🗂️ So, how does arbitrary data get stored on the Bitcoin blockchain using ordinals? Inscription content is serialized and included in the input of a reveal transaction, giving life to new forms of digital artifacts&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/taproot-addresses-play-a-crucial-role-in-enabling" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-17 19:39&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🔒 When an address becomes the owner of an inscription on the Bitcoin blockchain, it gains the ability to transfer that inscription. This ownership is secured and verified by the Bitcoin network itself&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/when-an-address-becomes-the-owner-of-an-inscription-on-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-17 19:39&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🛠️ Meet the ord tool! It serves as an index, block explorer, and wallet for exploring the world of inscriptions. With ord, you can generate, manage, and interact with your own inscriptions on the Bitcoin blockchain&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/meet-the-ord-tool-it-serves-as-an-index-block-explorer-and" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-17 19:39&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🖼️ Inscriptions demonstrate the versatility of the Bitcoin blockchain, enabling storage of arbitrary data. From artwork to text, the possibilities are endless. Ordinal Theory opens new avenues for creativity and innovation on the blockchain.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/inscriptions-demonstrate-the-versatility-of-the-bitcoin" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-17 19:39&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🎯 Keep in mind that transaction fees and the size of the inscription can affect costs. As the inscription size increases, so does the transaction size, potentially impacting fees required for inclusion in a block&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/keep-in-mind-that-transaction-fees-and-the-size-of-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-17 19:39&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/what-if-i-told-you-that-bitcoin-is-not-just-about-money-but" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/what-if-i-told-you-that-bitcoin-is-not-just-about-money-but</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 17 May 2023 18:39:45 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🚀 Debunking a common misconception in the Crypto world: BRC-20 superiority over ERC-20</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/debunking-a-common-misconception-in-the-crypto-world-brc-20</link><description>If you've heard BRC-20 is better, let's dive into some facts that might make you rethink that claim</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;If you&amp;#x27;ve heard BRC-20 is better, let&amp;#x27;s dive into some facts that might make you rethink that claim&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/debunking-a-common-misconception-in-the-crypto-world-brc-20.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/debunking-a-common-misconception-in-the-crypto-world-brc-20" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-17 23:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🤔 It&amp;#x27;s crucial to understand what these tokens are. BRC-20 is essentially a piece of text, whereas ERC-20 is a computer program. BRC-20&amp;#x27;s capabilities are limited to inscription on the blockchain. ERC-20, on the other hand, allows encoding of any execution logic&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/its-crucial-to-understand-what-these-tokens-are-brc-20-is" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-17 23:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;📝 With BRC-20, there are no numeric balances. Instead, you need to parse everything from the text. In contrast, ERC-20 gives each address an integer balance, simplifying and enforcing the proper handling of assets&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/with-brc-20-there-are-no-numeric-balances-instead-you-need" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-17 23:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🪙 BRC-20 doesn&amp;#x27;t limit the minting of tokens. There is no way of knowing wether a token has been fully minted without parsing every “mint” text record. Conversely, ERC-20 ensures that only a predetermined amount of a token can exist, providing a more controlled ecosystem.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/with-brc-20-there-are-no-numeric-balances-instead-you-need" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-17 23:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚧 Contrary to popular belief, BRC-20 isn&amp;#x27;t fully on the Bitcoin blockchain. Yes, the text is stored as part of Taproot Bitcoin transactions, but Bitcoin isn&amp;#x27;t aware of BRC-20s. You need an external, off-chain tool to parse and calculate balances&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/contrary-to-popular-belief-brc-20-isnt-fully-on-the-bitcoin" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-17 23:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🛠️ Any DeFi ecosystem built around BRC-20 will need off-chain tools. This requirement brings in a level of centralization and potential vulnerability. On the other hand, with ERC-20, everything is fully stored and operated on the blockchain&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/any-defi-ecosystem-built-around-brc-20-will-need-off-chain" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-17 23:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚀 BRC-20 is also less efficient than ERC-20. Any mildly complex system built around BRC-20 heavily relies on caching. In contrast, ERC-20 is extremely efficient, cryptographically protected, and operates seamlessly on the blockchain&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/brc-20-is-also-less-efficient-than-erc-20-any-mildly-complex" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-17 23:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;📚 A detailed explanation of what BRC-20 are and how they work can be found on this thread: &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/@1684348771-1.html" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/@1684348771-1.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;BRC20 Ordinals Inscriptions Bitcoin&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/brc-20-is-also-less-efficient-than-erc-20-any-mildly-complex" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-17 23:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🌐 In conclusion, it&amp;#x27;s essential to understand the technical and operational differences between BRC-20 and ERC-20. While the ecosystem around BRC-20 will continue to evolve, it is unlikely that it will supersede smart-contract based DeFi&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/in-conclusion-its-essential-to-understand-the-technical-and" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-05-17 23:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/debunking-a-common-misconception-in-the-crypto-world-brc-20" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/debunking-a-common-misconception-in-the-crypto-world-brc-20</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 17 May 2023 22:43:46 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>zkSNARKs &amp; zkSTARKs: Disrupting Verifiable Computation</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/zksnarks-zkstarks-disrupting-verifiable-computation</link><description> Explore how these #ZeroKnowledge protocols SURPASS the #EVM's model, opening a world of possibilities for #Web3 applications   Deep dive ARTICLE      Let's unravel the key insights</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt; Explore how these #ZeroKnowledge protocols SURPASS the #EVM&amp;#x27;s model, opening a world of possibilities for #Web3 applications&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt; Deep dive ARTICLE &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt; Let&amp;#x27;s unravel the key insights&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/zksnarks-zkstarks-disrupting-verifiable-computation" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-13 18:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🤔 What makes a computation VERIFIABLE?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;✅ In zkSNARKs &amp;amp; zkSTARKs, provers generate proofs of computations, while verifiers check their correctness&lt;br/&gt;🔒 This model supports PRIVATE inputs, unlike the EVM&lt;br/&gt;🌍 It&amp;#x27;s not limited to blockchain - zkLocus showcases off-chain use cases&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/zksnarks-zkstarks-disrupting-verifiable-computation" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-13 18:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚀 zkSNARKs &amp;amp; zkSTARKs offer a Constant Verifiable Computational Model (CVCM)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;⚡ Verification time is CONSTANT - O(1), regardless of computation complexity&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;💡 Contrast this with the EVM&amp;#x27;s Linear VCM (LVCM), where verification grows LINEARLY with instructions - O(n)&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/zksnarks-zkstarks-offer-a-constant-verifiable-computational.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/zksnarks-zkstarks-offer-a-constant-verifiable-computational" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-13 18:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🤯 The implications are MASSIVE!&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🧪 Mina Protocol blockchain and it&amp;#x27;s native token $MINA operate on this architecture&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;📍zkLocus leverages this technology to turn geolocation into a RWA, by enabling private, verifiable and programmable geolocation sharing&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-implications-are-massive.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-implications-are-massive" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-13 18:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;♾️ The recursive nature of zkSNARKs &amp;amp; zkSTARKs enables INFINITE SCALABILITY&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🌿 Imagine compressing 1000s of computations into a SINGLE proof&lt;br/&gt;⏰ Verification time remains ~CONSTANT&lt;br/&gt;💰 Gas costs are DRASTICALLY reduced&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🔥 This is the power of ZKP! 🔥&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Mina Protocol blockchain aces it 💪&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-implications-are-massive" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-13 18:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🔍 Let&amp;#x27;s examine how zkLocus leverages Mina&amp;#x27;s zkSNARK-based architecture&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🌍 Geolocation data becomes a trustless, programmable Real World Asset (RWA)&lt;br/&gt;🌉 zkLocus proofs can be used cross-chain or even off-chain&lt;br/&gt;🎯 It&amp;#x27;s an &amp;quot;app-specific rollup&amp;quot; on Mina, focusing on its own logic&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/lets-examine-how-zklocus-leverages-minas-zksnark-based" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-13 18:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;⏳ Time complexity comparison: EVM vs. zkSNARKs/zkSTARKs&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🧮 Execution: EVM is faster due to simple VM emulation&lt;br/&gt;🔍 Verification: ZK proofs shine with constant O(1) vs. EVM&amp;#x27;s linear O(n)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;💡 This is why ZK L2 solutions are BOOMING on Ethereum!&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/lets-examine-how-zklocus-leverages-minas-zksnark-based" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-13 18:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🌍 But the potential of zkSNARKs &amp;amp; zkSTARKs goes BEYOND blockchain!&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🏥 zkSafeZones: Safeguarding civilians in warzones:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;⚖️ Automated on-chain legal compliance&lt;br/&gt;👁️ Privacy-preserving AI surveillance&lt;br/&gt;🧪 Built on zkLocus + Mina Protocol blockchain &lt;br/&gt;⛑️ Proposing to UN and ICRC&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/but-the-potential-of-zksnarks-zkstarks-goes-beyond" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-13 18:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🔐 The era of PRIVATE, VERIFIABLE, PROGRAMMABLE and TRUSTLESS computation is upon us! 👇&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/blog/posts/zksnark-zkstark-verifiable-computation-model-blockchain/" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/blog/posts/zksnark-zkstark-verifiable-computation-model-blockchain/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-era-of-private-verifiable-programmable-and-trustless" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-13 18:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🧠 Adapting to the ZK mindset takes time, but the rewards are IMMENSE&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;💡 As I discovered building zkLocus, every challenge sparks innovation&lt;br/&gt;🌟 Soon, you&amp;#x27;ll be engineering groundbreaking solutions effortlessly&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🚀 The future of Web3 is BRIGHT with ZeroKnowledge! 🔐🌐💻&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-era-of-private-verifiable-programmable-and-trustless" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-13 18:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/zksnarks-zkstarks-disrupting-verifiable-computation" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/zksnarks-zkstarks-disrupting-verifiable-computation</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 13 Apr 2024 17:28:19 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Ever wondered how zkSNARKs &amp; zkSTARKs ACTUALLY work under the hood? 🤔</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/ever-wondered-how-zksnarks-zkstarks-actually-work-under-the</link><description>🔐 These ZeroKnowledge protocols offer a novel way to PROVE computations without revealing the computation itself! 🤯  ⛓️ Native match with blockchain   (a thread 🧵)</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🔐 These ZeroKnowledge protocols offer a novel way to PROVE computations without revealing the computation itself! 🤯&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;⛓️ Native match with blockchain&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt; (a thread 🧵)&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ever-wondered-how-zksnarks-zkstarks-actually-work-under-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-14 13:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🎯 At their core, zkSNARKs &amp;amp; zkSTARKs provide a cryptographic OBSERVATION of a computation 🔍&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🕵️ The PROVER generates the PROOF&lt;br/&gt;⚖️ The VERIFIER checks the PROOF&lt;br/&gt;🔒 The PROOF itself encapsulates the computation, inputs &amp;amp; outputs&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🤯 It&amp;#x27;s like a mathematical witness!&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/at-their-core-zksnarks-zkstarks-provide-a-cryptographic" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-14 13:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;✅ Generating the proof = Executing the computation&lt;br/&gt;🔍 Verifying the proof = Checking the computation&amp;#x27;s correctness&lt;br/&gt;⏰ Verification is ~CONSTANT time, regardless of computation complexity&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🚀 How do you think this affects SCALABILITY? 💫&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/generating-the-proof-executing-the-computation" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-14 13:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🌿 Thanks to their RECURSIVE properties, zkSNARKs &amp;amp; zkSTARKs enable INFINITE SCALABILITY ♾️&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🧩 You can COMPRESS 1000s of proofs into a SINGLE one&lt;br/&gt;⏳ Verification time remains ~CONSTANT&lt;br/&gt;💰 Gas costs are SLASHED&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🔥 This is the power of ZKP! 🔥&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/generating-the-proof-executing-the-computation" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-14 13:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🕰️ Compared to the Ethereum EVM&amp;#x27;s Linear Verifiable Computational Model (LVCM), zkSNARKs &amp;amp; zkSTARKs offer a Constant one (CVCM)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;⚡ Verification time: O(1) vs. O(n)&lt;br/&gt;🌪️ Scalability: ♾️ vs. 📈&lt;br/&gt;⛓️ Interoperability: 🌉 vs. 🚧&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🌟 The implications of ZK are PROFOUND!&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/compared-to-the-ethereum-evms-linear-verifiable" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-14 13:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;💡 When combined with the blockchain, zkSNARKs &amp;amp; zkSTARKs are disruptive:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🌍 zkLocus: geolocation RWA&lt;br/&gt;🏥 zkSafeZones: Safeguarding civilians in warzones. Proposing to UN and ICRC&lt;br/&gt;⚖️ Automated legal compliance on-chain&lt;br/&gt;🕵️ Privacy-preserving AI systems&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🛠️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/when-combined-with-the-blockchain-zksnarks-zkstarks-are" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-14 13:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🔗 Deep dive into ZKP protocols of zkSNARK/zkSTARK and how combined with the blockchain they enable a new Verifiable Computation model by providing a cryptographic observation of a computation👇&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/blog/posts/zksnark-zkstark-verifiable-computation-model-blockchain/" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/blog/posts/zksnark-zkstark-verifiable-computation-model-blockchain/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/when-combined-with-the-blockchain-zksnarks-zkstarks-are" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-14 13:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/ever-wondered-how-zksnarks-zkstarks-actually-work-under-the" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/ever-wondered-how-zksnarks-zkstarks-actually-work-under-the</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 14 Apr 2024 12:28:39 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🎲 Introducing RandoMina - a protocol for provable random number generation on the Mina Protocol blockchain  blockchain! 🔢🔐</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/introducing-randomina-a-protocol-for-provable-random-number</link><description>🌟 Developed as part of zkLocus, RandoMina is now open-source and ready for you to explore! 🚀  🔗 GitHub: https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina  🧵 Let's dive in! 👇</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🌟 Developed as part of zkLocus, RandoMina is now open-source and ready for you to explore! 🚀&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🔗 GitHub: &lt;a href="https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina" target="_blank"&gt;https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🧵 Let&amp;#x27;s dive in! 👇&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/introducing-randomina-a-protocol-for-provable-random-number" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 18:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🔒 RandoMina leverages the power of Zero-Knowledge (ZK) proofs to ensure random numbers are:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;✅ Provable&lt;br/&gt;✅ Secure&lt;br/&gt;✅ Trustless&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🌐 Built on Mina Protocol blockchain, RandoMina is tamper-proof and transparent! 🙌&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/introducing-randomina-a-protocol-for-provable-random-number" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 18:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;⚡ Key Features:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🔀 Provable pseudo-randomness: VRF&lt;br/&gt;🔒 Fresh &amp;amp; Tamper-proof: ZK and Mina Protocol blockchain&lt;br/&gt;⚡ Efficient &amp;amp; scalable: zkSNARKs&lt;br/&gt;🌐 Decentralized &amp;amp; trustless: $MINA&lt;br/&gt;🔭 Transparent &amp;amp; auditable: OpenSource&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/key-features" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 18:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;💡 RandoMina is designed for dApps requiring secure randomness! 🎲&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🎰 Lotteries&lt;br/&gt;🎲 Gaming&lt;br/&gt;💰 DeFi&lt;br/&gt;🔐 And more!&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Native on Mina Protocol blockchain and bridgeable to other blockchains like Ethereum&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/key-features" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 18:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🧩 How does it work?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🌐 RandoMina cryptographically combines:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ Network State&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Sender-Specific Nonce&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ Local Seed/Nonce&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🔢 This ensures fresh, unique &amp;amp; unpredictable random numbers for each user! 🎉&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/how-does-it-work" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 18:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🎲 RandoMina is designed as a SmartContract in O1JS, making it easy to integrate with your zkApps &amp;amp; dApps! 🛠️&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🚀 Deploy it as a standalone contract or incorporate it into your custom solution 💫&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🔗 &lt;a href="https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina" target="_blank"&gt;https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/randomina-is-designed-as-a-smartcontract-in-o1js-making-it" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 18:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;👨‍💻 For developers eager to dive in, the &lt;a href="https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina" target="_blank"&gt;https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina&lt;/a&gt; on the GitHub repo has all the juicy details! 📚&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;💻 Example usage&lt;br/&gt;🛠️ Building instructions&lt;br/&gt;🧪 Testing guide&lt;br/&gt;📊 Coverage reports&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🔗 Dive in here: &lt;a href="https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina" target="_blank"&gt;https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/randomina-is-designed-as-a-smartcontract-in-o1js-making-it" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 18:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🙌 RandoMina is an open-source effort to empower the $MINA community with secure, provable randomness! 💪&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🤝 I welcome your feedback, contributions &amp;amp; ideas to iterate on this MVP! 🌟&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🐦 Give zkLocus a shoutout - let&amp;#x27;s build together! 🚀&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;ZK ZKP Web3 Blockchain Mina&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/randomina-is-an-open-source-effort-to-empower-the-mina" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 18:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/introducing-randomina-a-protocol-for-provable-random-number" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/introducing-randomina-a-protocol-for-provable-random-number</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 15 Apr 2024 17:58:36 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🧵 Let's dive into the technical details of RandoMina: a protocol for provable random number generation on  Mina Protocol blockchain blockchain written in 01JS! 🔢🔐</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/lets-dive-into-the-technical-details-of-randomina-a-protocol</link><description>💡 Powering zkLocus  🔗 GitHub: https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina/</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;💡 Powering zkLocus&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🔗 GitHub: &lt;a href="https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina/" target="_blank"&gt;https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/lets-dive-into-the-technical-details-of-randomina-a-protocol" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 20:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;1️⃣ RandoMina uses Zero-Knowledge proofs to ensure random numbers are provable, fresh, and trustless. It combines:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;- Network State 🌐&lt;br/&gt;- Sender-Specific Nonce 🔒&lt;br/&gt;- Local Seed/Nonce 🌱&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/lets-dive-into-the-technical-details-of-randomina-a-protocol" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 20:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;2️⃣ To ensure freshness, RandoMina leverages $Mina&amp;#x27;s VRF (Verifiable Random Function) values, specifically `stakingEpochData.seed.value`. 🔐&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This value is updated with each new staking epoch, providing a unique seed for each epoch. 📅&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/2-to-ensure-freshness-randomina-leverages-minas-vrf" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 20:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;3️⃣ Using `stakingEpochData.seed.value` as part of the PRNG seed ensures that random numbers are tied to the current epoch, preventing manipulation and guaranteeing freshness. 🌿&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/2-to-ensure-freshness-randomina-leverages-minas-vrf" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 20:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;4️⃣ The Sender-Specific Nonce is derived from the sender&amp;#x27;s public key, ensuring unique (pseudo)random numbers across the network. 🌍&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;It&amp;#x27;s computed by Poseidon-hashing the public key, adding a global uniqueness component. 🔑&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/4-the-sender-specific-nonce-is-derived-from-the-senders" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 20:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;5️⃣ The Local Seed/Nonce allows generating multiple random numbers per epoch for each sender. 🎲&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;By varying this private nonce, an infinite number of pseudo-random numbers can be generated within a single epoch. ♾️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/4-the-sender-specific-nonce-is-derived-from-the-senders" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 20:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;6️⃣ RandoMina&amp;#x27;s smart contract, `RandoMinaContract`, verifies the computation and ensures the claimed network state matches the current epoch. ✅&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;It&amp;#x27;s designed to be used or integrated by other contracts needing secure randomness. 🧩&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/6-randominas-smart-contract-randominacontract-verifies-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 20:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;7️⃣ Here&amp;#x27;s how RandoMina ensures unique random numbers! 🕵️&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;- Two identities (public keys) will always generate different random numbers 🔑&lt;br/&gt;- Same identity with different local seeds produces unique numbers 🌱&lt;br/&gt;- Same identity across different epochs generates distinct numbers 📅&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/7-heres-how-randomina-ensures-unique-random-numbers" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 20:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;8️⃣ When two identities generate random numbers using RandoMina:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;✅ Sender-Specific Nonce is unique due to different public keys&lt;br/&gt;✅ Combining unique Sender-Specific Nonce with Network State and Local Seed/Nonce&lt;br/&gt;➡️ Always results in different random numbers for each identity! 🎉&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/7-heres-how-randomina-ensures-unique-random-numbers" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 20:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;9️⃣ For the same identity, using different Local Seed/Nonce values:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🔄 Varying the Local Seed/Nonce&lt;br/&gt;🔗 While keeping the Sender-Specific Nonce and Network State constant&lt;br/&gt;➡️ Produces unique random numbers for the same identity within an epoch! 🪄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/9-for-the-same-identity-using-different-local-seed-nonce" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 20:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🔟 Across different epochs, the same identity generates distinct random numbers:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🌐 Network State changes with each new epoch&lt;br/&gt;🆕 Updated Network State is combined with Sender-Specific Nonce and Local Seed/Nonce&lt;br/&gt;➡️ Guarantees diff numbers for the same identity across epochs! ⏰&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/9-for-the-same-identity-using-different-local-seed-nonce" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 20:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;1️⃣1️⃣ Generating a random number involves:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1. Preparing public (Network State, Sender) and private (Nonce) inputs&lt;br/&gt;2. Generating a proof using `RandomNumberObservationCircuit`&lt;br/&gt;3. Verifying the proof and network state with `RandoMinaContract`&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Code &amp;amp; Tests: &lt;a href="https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina" target="_blank"&gt;https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/11-generating-a-random-number-involves" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 20:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;1️⃣2️⃣ In summary, RandoMina leverages ZK proofs, $Mina&amp;#x27;s VRF `stakingEpochData.seed.value`, and a combination of network state, sender info, and local nonces to provide secure, verifiable, and infinite randomness for dAppss 🌟&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/11-generating-a-random-number-involves" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 20:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;That&amp;#x27;s it for technical deep dive into RandoMina and its 01JS implementation on Mina Protocol blockchain ! 🤿&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;For more details, check out the source code and tests on GitHub. ⭐️&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Feel free to ask any questions or share your thoughts! 💬&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🔗 &lt;a href="https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina" target="_blank"&gt;https://github.com/iluxonchik/randomina&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/thats-it-for-technical-deep-dive-into-randomina-and-its-01js" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-15 20:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/lets-dive-into-the-technical-details-of-randomina-a-protocol" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/lets-dive-into-the-technical-details-of-randomina-a-protocol</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 15 Apr 2024 19:24:29 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🚀 BRICS Digital Currency: Cryptocurrency on a Public Blockchain 🪙</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/brics-digital-currency-cryptocurrency-on-a-public-blockchain</link><description>In this article, we explore how the BRICS currency can be implemented on a public blockchain and challenge the claims made in "Digital Money Options for the BRICS" for Web3</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;In this article, we explore how the BRICS currency can be implemented on a public blockchain and challenge the claims made in &amp;quot;Digital Money Options for the BRICS&amp;quot; for Web3&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/brics-digital-currency-cryptocurrency-on-a-public-blockchain" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-28 19:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🌍 The BRICS digital currency aims to integrate with existing monetary systems, creating a unified economic area for member nations 🤝&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Its value is algorithmically derived from various economic factors of the participating countries 📈&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-brics-digital-currency-aims-to-integrate-with-existing" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-28 19:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;💡 While the original paper suggests the impossibility of realizing the BRICS currency as a cryptocurrency, we&amp;#x27;ll challenge it 🤔&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;A public blockchain with SmartContracts, combined with Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP), provides a natural fit for the implementation 🧩&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-brics-digital-currency-aims-to-integrate-with-existing" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-28 19:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🔍 Let&amp;#x27;s explore how the BRICS currency can leverage these technologies:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;✅ Dynamic supply mechanism via smart contracts&lt;br/&gt;✅ Legal compliance on-chain using ZKPs&lt;br/&gt;✅ Integration with DeFi and zkLocus for authenticated private geolocation&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;👉 A cryptocurrency for Web3&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/lets-explore-how-the-brics-currency-can-leverage-these" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-28 19:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;💸 The dynamic supply of the BRICS currency is defined by a formula:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;M = ForT + FDI + PI + ForEx + G&amp;amp;EX + InterSec + Der + ForDeposit + EuroCurrency + MTransfer + Etc.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This can be automated using smart contracts on the blockchain 🤖&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Like Algorithmic stablecoins and Uniswap&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/lets-explore-how-the-brics-currency-can-leverage-these" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-28 19:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/brics-digital-currency-cryptocurrency-on-a-public-blockchain" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/brics-digital-currency-cryptocurrency-on-a-public-blockchain</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 28 Apr 2024 18:28:06 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🌍 Integrating zkLocus allows associating geolocation data with each BRICS transaction while preserving user privacy 🔒</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/integrating-zklocus-allows-associating-geolocation-data-with</link><description>zkLocus turns geolocation into a programmable real-world asset (RWA), enabling location-based fees and taxation📍  ✨ Native on MinaProtocol</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;zkLocus turns geolocation into a programmable real-world asset (RWA), enabling location-based fees and taxation📍&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;✨ Native on MinaProtocol&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/integrating-zklocus-allows-associating-geolocation-data-with" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-28 19:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🧩 Implementing the BRICS currency on a public blockchain reduces cost &amp;amp; complexity&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The dynamic supply is controlled by smart contracts, while ZKPs bridge data from arbitrary sources 🌉&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Demand is driven by incentives for participating in the BRICS economic network 💰&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/implementing-the-brics-currency-on-a-public-blockchain" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-28 19:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🌟 By embracing public blockchains and ZeroKnowledge technologies, the BRICS digital currency can pioneer a new era of finance🔮&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;A more efficient, interoperable, decentralized, and inclusive financial system aligned with Web3 principles 🌍&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/by-embracing-public-blockchains-and-zeroknowledge" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-28 19:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Read the full article to dive deeper into how the BRICS digital currency can be realized as a cryptocurrency on a public blockchain. 📖&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🔗 &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/blog/posts/brics-cryptocurrency-blockchain/" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/blog/posts/brics-cryptocurrency-blockchain/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Let&amp;#x27;s discuss! Share your thoughts below🗣️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/read-the-full-article-to-dive-deeper-into-how-the-brics" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-04-28 19:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/integrating-zklocus-allows-associating-geolocation-data-with" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/integrating-zklocus-allows-associating-geolocation-data-with</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 28 Apr 2024 18:28:13 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🚨 PRIVACY IS A MYTH! 🕵️‍♂️</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/privacy-is-a-myth</link><description>Digital privacy is fundamentally unfeasible, unless we rely on verifiable computation constructs like Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP) 🔐  A thread 🧵 on why ZKPs are the key to true digital privacy 👇…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Digital privacy is fundamentally unfeasible, unless we rely on verifiable computation constructs like Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP) 🔐&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;A thread 🧵 on why ZKPs are the key to true digital privacy 👇&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/blog/posts/privacy-is-a-myth-without-zero-knowledge-proofs/" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/blog/posts/privacy-is-a-myth-without-zero-knowledge-proofs/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Privacy ZeroKnowledge Web3&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/privacy-is-a-myth" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-26 13:01&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;💡 The problem with digital privacy lies not in how data is stored &amp;amp; shared, but what data is shared 🤔&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Even with encryption, once sensitive data leaves your device, it&amp;#x27;s compromised 😱&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;But what if we could share data in an inherently private manner? 🤯&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-problem-with-digital-privacy-lies-not-in-how-data-is.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-problem-with-digital-privacy-lies-not-in-how-data-is" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-26 13:01&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;💡 Zero-Knowledge Proofs fix digital privacy 🌅&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Instead of protecting sensitive data after sharing, ZKPs enable sharing data in an inherently private manner 🔐&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;By turning data into computation, ZKPs abstract it to preserve privacy 🧩&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/zero-knowledge-proofs-fix-digital-privacy.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/zero-knowledge-proofs-fix-digital-privacy" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-26 13:01&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🔍 Solutions like zkLocus, zkSafeZones, zkML, and zkVM leverage ZKPs for privacy🛡️&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;- zkLocus: Private geolocation sharing on Mina Protocol blockchain 📍&lt;br/&gt;- zkSafeZones: Civilian protection in warzones 🏥&lt;br/&gt;- zkML: Private machine learning 🤖&lt;br/&gt;- zkVM: Verifiable computation 💻&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/solutions-like-zklocus-zksafezones-zkml-and-zkvm-leverage" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-26 13:01&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🔐 How does Mina Protocol blockchain fit into this? 🤔&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;$MINA serves as the foundation for ZKP apps, thanks to its programmable zkApps 🚀&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;It uses recursive zkSNARKs to create proofs of arbitrary computations, thus serving as the foundation of privacy solutions 💪&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt; It&amp;#x27;s proof of everything&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/solutions-like-zklocus-zksafezones-zkml-and-zkvm-leverage" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-26 13:01&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🌿 Merkle Trees, MPC, and homomorphic encryption complement ZKPs. 🍃&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;- Merkle Trees: Efficient &amp;amp; private data storage 📚&lt;br/&gt;- MPC: Secure multi-party computation 🤝&lt;br/&gt;- Homomorphic Encryption: Computation on encrypted data 🔒&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/merkle-trees-mpc-and-homomorphic-encryption-complement-zkps" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-26 13:01&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🔐 ZKPs remove the need to trust third parties for privacy. 🙅‍♂️&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Instead, we rely on mathematical guarantees 🧮&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This allows us to retain full custody &amp;amp; control over our data while enjoying digital services 😌&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/zkps-remove-the-need-to-trust-third-parties-for-privacy" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-26 13:01&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🌍 With ZKPs, we can build privacy-preserving: 🏗️&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;- Search engines 🔍&lt;br/&gt;- Social networks 👥&lt;br/&gt;- E-commerce platforms 🛒&lt;br/&gt;- Even 24/7 global video surveillance! 📹&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;All without compromising functionality, business or individual privacy 💪&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/with-zkps-we-can-build-privacy-preserving" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-26 13:01&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🔍 Imagine a search engine that never sees your raw queries, or a social network that keeps your connections hidden 😲&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;With ZKP, it&amp;#x27;s not just possible, but practical! 🎉&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;zkLocus, powered by Mina Protocol blockchain, is turning private geolocation into reality 📍&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/imagine-a-search-engine-that-never-sees-your-raw-queries-or.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/imagine-a-search-engine-that-never-sees-your-raw-queries-or" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-26 13:01&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;📹 Even 24/7 global video surveillance can be privacy-preserving with ZKP! 🌍&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;By combining zkML and verifiable computation, cameras can detect suspicious activity without storing private data 🕵️‍♀️&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;No, it&amp;#x27;s not magic. It&amp;#x27;s mathematics 🔐&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/even-24-7-global-video-surveillance-can-be-privacy" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-26 13:01&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🗣️ Privacy is a fundamental human right, and digital privacy is not an exception 📜&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;With Mina Protocol blockchain and ZKP solutions like zkLocus, we can build a future where privacy is the default 🙌&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;As the Web3 community, this is our mission &amp;amp; responsibility 💪&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/privacy-is-a-fundamental-human-right-and-digital-privacy-is.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/privacy-is-a-fundamental-human-right-and-digital-privacy-is" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-26 13:01&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;👉 Learn more about ZKPs &amp;amp; privacy:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;- zkLocus: &lt;a href="https://zklocus.dev/" target="_blank"&gt;https://zklocus.dev/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;- zkSafeZones: &lt;a href="https://zklocus.dev/zkSafeZones/" target="_blank"&gt;https://zklocus.dev/zkSafeZones/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;- Full article: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/blog/posts/privacy-is-a-myth-without-zero-knowledge-proofs/" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/blog/posts/privacy-is-a-myth-without-zero-knowledge-proofs/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Let&amp;#x27;s make privacy the default, not an afterthought 🌟&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/learn-more-about-zkps-privacy" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-26 13:02&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/privacy-is-a-myth" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/privacy-is-a-myth</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 26 May 2024 12:02:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🌍 Imagine 24/7 global video surveillance that doesn't compromise privacy</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/imagine-24-7-global-video-surveillance-that-doesnt</link><description>🤯 Sounds impossible?  😎 Zero-Knowledge Proofs disagree  Here's why 🧵👇</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🤯 Sounds impossible?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;😎 Zero-Knowledge Proofs disagree&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Here&amp;#x27;s why 🧵👇&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/imagine-24-7-global-video-surveillance-that-doesnt.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/imagine-24-7-global-video-surveillance-that-doesnt" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-30 18:57&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;📹 Imagine a global network of video cameras, monitoring every corner, every alley, even inside your home 🏠&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Sounds like a privacy nightmare, right? 😨&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Not necessarily! 😮&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;With ZKP, we can mathematically guarantee that private data is never stored or shared! 🔐&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/imagine-a-global-network-of-video-cameras-monitoring-every" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-30 18:57&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🔍 The key lies in the verifiable computation model of Zero-Knowledge Proofs 🔑&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Instead of trusting third-parties not to misuse data, we rely on cryptographic proofs to ensure privacy 💪&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;It&amp;#x27;s not about faith, but rather mathematical certainty 🧮&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🔗 &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/blog/posts/zksnark-zkstark-verifiable-computation-model-blockchain/" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/blog/posts/zksnark-zkstark-verifiable-computation-model-blockchain/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/imagine-a-global-network-of-video-cameras-monitoring-every" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-30 18:57&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🧩 Here&amp;#x27;s how a ZKP-powered surveillance system works:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ Cameras feed live video into a zkML model&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ The model labels data as &amp;quot;suspicious&amp;quot; or &amp;quot;non-suspicious&amp;quot;&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ Only &amp;quot;suspicious&amp;quot; footage is stored &amp;amp; reported&lt;br/&gt;4️⃣ The zkML model is public, ensuring transparency&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/heres-how-a-zkp-powered-surveillance-system-works" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-30 18:57&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🔐 zkSNARKs/zkSTARKs can be used to create ZK proofs that attest to the correct execution of the camera&amp;#x27;s code 📸&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;👮‍♀️ These proofs, representing an observation of a computation, ensure that non-suspicious video is  discarded, thus preserving privacy&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;👉 Do not trust, verify 👈&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/zksnarks-zkstarks-can-be-used-to-create-zk-proofs-that" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-30 18:57&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🟣 Mina Protocol can implement the foundational layer 🚀&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Verification keys that attest to the correct execution of the camera&amp;#x27;s code can be stored on $MINA 🔑&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;In practice, this involves commitments and ZKP circuits to the zkML model, thus ensuring the right one is used 🧠&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/mina-protocol-can-implement-the-foundational-layer" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-30 18:57&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;📋 Here&amp;#x27;s how Mina Protocol blockchain fits into the picture:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ zkSNARK circuits verifying camera code execution are stored on Mina&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Commitments &amp;amp; ZKP circuits to the zkML model are also stored on the blockchain&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ All proofs from cameras are submitted &amp;amp; verified against them&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/heres-how-mina-protocol-blockchain-fits-into-the-picture" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-30 18:57&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚨 By using Mina Protocol as a public layer for computation proofs, we create an auditable &amp;amp; transparent system 🕵️‍♀️&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Anyone can verify that the cameras are operating as promised, without misusing the video data 🔍&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/heres-how-mina-protocol-blockchain-fits-into-the-picture" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-30 18:57&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🪄 This is just one example of what is possible with ZeroKnowledge Proofs&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;📚 It was taken from my article &amp;quot;Privacy Is A Myth. Unless You&amp;#x27;re Using Zero-Knowledge Proofs&amp;quot; 👇&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/blog/posts/privacy-is-a-myth-without-zero-knowledge-proofs/" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/blog/posts/privacy-is-a-myth-without-zero-knowledge-proofs/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-is-just-one-example-of-what-is-possible-with" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-30 18:57&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;😳 ZKP will redefine what you know about computation and privacy&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;📍 This is what we are doing at zkLocus, by turning geolocation into a RWA &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🔗 To learn more, visit &lt;a href="https://zklocus.dev/" target="_blank"&gt;https://zklocus.dev/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-is-just-one-example-of-what-is-possible-with" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-05-30 18:57&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/imagine-24-7-global-video-surveillance-that-doesnt" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/imagine-24-7-global-video-surveillance-that-doesnt</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 30 May 2024 17:57:17 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🛒 E-commerce &amp; Privacy - Myth or Reality? 🔐</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/e-commerce-privacy-myth-or-reality</link><description>💻 Online shopping without revealing your personal data?  🚀 Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP), zkLocus and Mina Protocol blockchain enable just that…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;💻 Online shopping without revealing your personal data?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🚀 Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP), zkLocus and Mina Protocol blockchain enable just that&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/blog/posts/privacy-is-a-myth-without-zero-knowledge-proofs/" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/blog/posts/privacy-is-a-myth-without-zero-knowledge-proofs/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Here&amp;#x27;s how 🧵👇&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/e-commerce-privacy-myth-or-reality" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-06-01 11:26&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🔍 The challenge with e-commerce privacy lies in two main areas:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ Keeping search queries private 🔒&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Protecting personal info like name and address 🙅‍♂️&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Traditional platforms require us to trust them with this data&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-challenge-with-e-commerce-privacy-lies-in-two-main-areas" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-06-01 11:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;💰 Wether you are online shopping on Amazon, eBay, AliExpress or any other e-commerce platform, you are sharing your personal data with them.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🤔 But does it have to be this way?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;✨ Is a fully private online shopping experience possible?&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-challenge-with-e-commerce-privacy-lies-in-two-main-areas" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-06-01 11:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;❗️Yes, and Zero-Knowledge Proofs are the answer❗️&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;📜 Instead of sharing raw data, ZKP allow us to share proofs about our data&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🤯 Now, you can search for products to buy without revealing your exact queries!&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/yes-and-zero-knowledge-proofs-are-the-answer.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/yes-and-zero-knowledge-proofs-are-the-answer" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-06-01 11:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🧩 Here&amp;#x27;s how private search queries work:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ User runs a zkML computation to abstract their query&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ The abstracted query is sent to the e-commerce platform&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ Platform returns relevant results, which are filtered locally by the user&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/yes-and-zero-knowledge-proofs-are-the-answer" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-06-01 11:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🕵️‍♀️ Such an approach allows us to search for data with a centralized provider without revealing our exact search queries&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🔎 In the end, the provider has enough information to provide us with relevant results, without being able to track us&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/such-an-approach-allows-us-to-search-for-data-with-a" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-06-01 11:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;👀 Private search quries are great, but can we go a step further?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🪪 Is it possible to shop online without revealing any of your identity and shipping data to the e-commerce platform?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🤯 The answer is YES!&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/private-search-quries-are-great-but-can-we-go-a-step-further" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-06-01 11:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🔐 How can we conceal personal info like name and address?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;📍This is where zkLocus comes in! &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🌍 zkLocus allows users to prove they&amp;#x27;re in a certain area without revealing exact coordinates &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🏠 It&amp;#x27;s like saying &amp;quot;I&amp;#x27;m somewhere in New York&amp;quot; without revealing your exact address&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/private-search-quries-are-great-but-can-we-go-a-step-further" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-06-01 11:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🎁 Here&amp;#x27;s how zkLocus enables private shipping:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ You creates a zkLocus proof of their location&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Proof is associated with encrypted name &amp;amp; address&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ E-commerce platform gets general area, but not exact info&lt;br/&gt;4️⃣ Package is sent to a processing center in the general area&lt;br/&gt;5️⃣👇&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/heres-how-zklocus-enables-private-shipping" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-06-01 11:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;5️⃣ You provide the decryption key to the center to reveal address&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;📦 The package then gets shipped &amp;amp; delivered to the user&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/heres-how-zklocus-enables-private-shipping" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-06-01 11:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🔐 Throughout this process, your name and address remain hidden from the e-commerce platform. 😌&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🌍 The platform only knows a broad area, not your specific location&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🪪 The processing center only gets your exact info when you choose to reveal it&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/throughout-this-process-your-name-and-address-remain-hidden" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-06-01 11:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🟣 This entire solution can be implemented on Mina Protocol blockchain! 💪&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;💻 $MINA&amp;#x27;s zkApps enable efficient, scalable and verifiable computation powered by zkSNARKs &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;📍 Combined with zkLocus for geolocation proofs, we have all of the necessary components&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/throughout-this-process-your-name-and-address-remain-hidden" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-06-01 11:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🔗 The process leverages several ZKP building blocks:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;⚙️ zkSNARKs for succinct, verifiable proofs&lt;br/&gt;🌿 Merkle Trees for efficient data storage&lt;br/&gt;🔐 Cyrptographic Commitments for data integrity&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-process-leverages-several-zkp-building-blocks" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-06-01 11:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🛡️ The result is an e-commerce platform that respects end-user privacy without sacrificing functionality 🎉&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;❌ There is no need to trade personal data for convenience&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🙌 ZKP, Mina Protocol blockchain and zkLocus  enable us to have both!&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-result-is-an-e-commerce-platform-that-respects-end-user" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-06-01 11:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;👉 Learn more about Zero-Knowledge Proofs, their applications, and how they redefine privacy:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;📍 zkLocus: &lt;a href="https://zklocus.dev/" target="_blank"&gt;https://zklocus.dev/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;📖 Full article: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/blog/posts/privacy-is-a-myth-without-zero-knowledge-proofs/" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/blog/posts/privacy-is-a-myth-without-zero-knowledge-proofs/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;💜 Let&amp;#x27;s build a Web3 future where privacy is the default, not an afterthought&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/learn-more-about-zero-knowledge-proofs-their-applications" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-06-01 11:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/e-commerce-privacy-myth-or-reality" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/e-commerce-privacy-myth-or-reality</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 01 Jun 2024 10:27:09 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🚀 Exploring Tokenized Liquid Futures Contracts</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/exploring-tokenized-liquid-futures-contracts</link><description>A deep dive into how they can be implemented on Mina Protocol blockchain without oracles or trusted intermediaries  Covering technical aspects, use cases, and innovations of this DeFi derivative…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;A deep dive into how they can be implemented on Mina Protocol blockchain without oracles or trusted intermediaries&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Covering technical aspects, use cases, and innovations of this DeFi derivative over TradFi solutions&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/exploring-tokenized-liquid-futures-contracts.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/exploring-tokenized-liquid-futures-contracts" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-07-01 22:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Futures contracts serve crucial roles in finance:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ Hedging against price volatility&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Speculation on future asset prices&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ Price discovery for underlying assets&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Smart contracts on the blockchain will disrupt this  $1T+ market. Here&amp;#x27;s how ⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/futures-contracts-serve-crucial-roles-in-finance" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-07-01 22:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🏦 Traditional futures require centralized clearing houses&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;On the blockchain, smart contracts eliminate intermediaries, enabling decentralized peer-to-peer agreements&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Example: A contract to trade 1000 $MINA for 2000 $USDC in 1 year, regardless of future $MINA price 📊&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/traditional-futures-require-centralized-clearing-houses" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-07-01 22:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Futures pricing is deterministic, and its main goal is to prevent arbitrage:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;💰 Futures Price = Spot Price * e^(rT)&lt;br/&gt;- r: risk-free rate (e.g., $MINA staking yield)&lt;br/&gt;- T: time to maturity&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This formula approximates pricing at maturity in both TradFi and DeFi  🧮&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/traditional-futures-require-centralized-clearing-houses" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-07-01 22:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🔐 Smart contracts on the blockchain enable full tokenization of futures contracts&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;📈 Both long and short positions become tokens, representing a &amp;quot;promise of future asset or money&amp;quot;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This allows partial selling of positions, increasing liquidity, flexibility and reducing risk 💧&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/smart-contracts-on-the-blockchain-enable-full-tokenization" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-07-01 22:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Each position (long and short) is subdivided into several fungible tokens, which can be traded independently&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The native token support of Mina Protocol blockchain means that a smart contract encodes both: the futures agreement, and its tokenization 🪙&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/each-position-long-and-short-is-subdivided-into-several" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-07-01 22:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;The DeFi margin for futures contracts differs from TradFi margins, by:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ Gradually increasing over time&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Ensuring full collateralization by maturity&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ Delaying full payment&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;TradFi margin&amp;#x27;s main goal is to cover daily settlement gains/losses of the futures position&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/each-position-long-and-short-is-subdivided-into-several" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-07-01 22:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;📈 The margin requirements increase algorithmically over the contract&amp;#x27;s lifespan&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This ensurer both parties deposit their obligation in full by maturity, while allowing for partial collaterization&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Thus leveraging the time value of money, without the need for a trusted party&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-margin-requirements-increase-algorithmically-over-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-07-01 22:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Example of gradually increasing margin:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;- Day 1: 10% deposit required&lt;br/&gt;- Month 1: 25% required&lt;br/&gt;- Month 2: 50% required&lt;br/&gt;- Month 3 (Maturity): 100% required&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This flexibility allows parties to structure payments based on future cash flows 💰&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-margin-requirements-increase-algorithmically-over-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-07-01 22:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;The margin in DeFi futures acts as:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ Traditional margin, as in TradFi&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Collateral hedging the counterparty risk&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ Under-collateralized assurance for a futures contract delivery&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Daily/periodic settlement can be incorporated into the dynamic margin requirements&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-margin-in-defi-futures-acts-as" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-07-01 22:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Smart contract on the blockchain tracks:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ Deposited amounts for each party&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Required deposits at each checkpoint&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ Maturity date&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;It uses this data to automatically enforce the increasing margin schedule 🔐&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/smart-contract-on-the-blockchain-tracks" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-07-01 22:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;If a party fails to meet margin requirements, the smart contract:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ Terminates the agreement&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Transfers deposited assets to the compliant party&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ Applies penalties to the defaulting party&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This liquidation process is executed automatically on-chain 🤖&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/smart-contract-on-the-blockchain-tracks" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-07-01 22:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🛟 The liquidation logic makes the initial required margin a collateral for all of the parties&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Failure to meet the obligations means a loss of the deposited margin/collateral, either in full or in part&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-liquidation-logic-makes-the-initial-required-margin-a" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-07-01 22:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🕑 The later this default occurs, the higher this loss is to the offending party&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This aligns with the principle of the time value of money&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-liquidation-logic-makes-the-initial-required-margin-a" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-07-01 22:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;The tokenization of the long and the short positions of the futures contact allows for trading of the positions in a fully decentralized manner, without the need for need for a clearing house&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This means no trusted entity or oracles are required, ensuring full decentralization&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-tokenization-of-the-long-and-the-short-positions-of-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-07-01 22:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;The smart contract automates risk management on-chain by:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ Enforcing margin requirements&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Handling liquidations&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ Ensuring contract settlement&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Removing the need for trusted third parties and ensuring transparency 🛡️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-tokenization-of-the-long-and-the-short-positions-of-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-07-01 22:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;In summary, blockchain-based Tokenized Liquid Futures:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;- Eliminate intermediaries&lt;br/&gt;- Increase transparency&lt;br/&gt;- Enhance liquidity&lt;br/&gt;- Automate risk management&lt;br/&gt;- Provide flexible capital deployment&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Thus enabling a disruptive #DeFi use-case over its #TradFi equivalent&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/in-summary-blockchain-based-tokenized-liquid-futures" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-07-01 22:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/exploring-tokenized-liquid-futures-contracts" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/exploring-tokenized-liquid-futures-contracts</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 01 Jul 2024 21:00:36 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🇯🇵 How does Japan protect bank deposits when banks fail?</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/how-does-japan-protect-bank-deposits-when-banks-fail</link><description>🤯 Their deposit insurance system handled 180+ financial institution failures, including the massive 90's banking crisis  👉 Here's how Japan's ¥10M deposit guarantee scheme works:…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🤯 Their deposit insurance system handled 180+ financial institution failures, including the massive 90&amp;#x27;s banking crisis&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;👉 Here&amp;#x27;s how Japan&amp;#x27;s ¥10M deposit guarantee scheme works: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/blog/posts/deposit-guarantee-scheme-japan-dia-dicj/" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/blog/posts/deposit-guarantee-scheme-japan-dia-dicj/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🧵&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/how-does-japan-protect-bank-deposits-when-banks-fail" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-10-27 15:50&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🏦 The Deposit Insurance Corporation of Japan (DICJ), provisioned in the Deposit Insurance Act  (DIA) defines as its goals:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;• Deposit insurance&lt;br/&gt;• Financial system stability&lt;br/&gt;• Troubled financial institution resolution&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Deposits guarantee is just one of responsibilities&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-deposit-insurance-corporation-of-japan-dicj-provisioned.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-deposit-insurance-corporation-of-japan-dicj-provisioned" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-10-27 15:50&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;💴 Coverage limits:&lt;br/&gt;• Regular deposits: Up to ¥10M (~$65k/€60k)&lt;br/&gt;• Payment &amp;amp; settlement accounts: 100% covered&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;💡Fun fact: During the 90s crisis, ALL deposits were fully protected. Japan gradually reduced this to ¥10M by 2005&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/coverage-limits.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/coverage-limits" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-10-27 15:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚀 How fast do you get your deposits back?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The Incubator Bank case (2010) shows DICJ timeline in practice:&lt;br/&gt;• Bank failed on Friday&lt;br/&gt;• Deposits returned by Monday&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;3 days/by next working day to have insured deposits available 🤝&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/how-fast-do-you-get-your-deposits-back.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/how-fast-do-you-get-your-deposits-back" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-10-27 15:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;💰 DICJ&amp;#x27;s funding comes from:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;• Self-issued bonds &lt;br/&gt;• Insurance premiums paid by banks&lt;br/&gt;• Borrowed funds from financial institutions &amp;amp; public&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;In practice, operation financing is heavily relied on debt, making it risky long-term 📈&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/dicjs-funding-comes-from.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/dicjs-funding-comes-from" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-10-27 15:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇯🇵🆚🇪🇺 &lt;br/&gt;Japan&amp;#x27;s &amp;amp; EU&amp;#x27;s deposit guarantee schemes differ⬇️&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🇯🇵 DICJ: Active crisis manager (Act 34 of 1971)&lt;br/&gt;🇪🇺 DGS: Mainly deposit protection (Directive 2014/49/EU)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Japan&amp;#x27;s approach = more intervention power &amp;amp; broader mandate&lt;br/&gt;EU&amp;#x27;s approach = more focused mandate&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/post-1730044269.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/post-1730044269" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-10-27 15:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚨 The system faced its biggest test during the 90s banking crisis:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;• 110 financial institutions resolved&lt;br/&gt;• Full deposit protection implemented&lt;br/&gt;• Massive debt-based interventions&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;DICJ has met its insurance obligations, but at what cost? 🤔&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-system-faced-its-biggest-test-during-the-90s-banking" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-10-27 15:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇯🇵⚠️ Current risks:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;• Heavy reliance on debt &lt;br/&gt;• Large US Dollar &amp;amp; Securities exposure&lt;br/&gt;• Currency devaluation, leading to inflation&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;These could trigger a 90s-style crisis 2.0 📉&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/current-risks" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-10-27 15:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🎌 While Japan has been successful in resolving hundreds of financial institution failures, the debt-heavy approach can only be only effective if the value created by credit is larger than the principal&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Otherwise, there&amp;#x27;s another bubble building up 🫧&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/while-japan-has-been-successful-in-resolving-hundreds-of.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/while-japan-has-been-successful-in-resolving-hundreds-of" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-10-27 15:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇯🇵🧠 For a deeper dive into Japan&amp;#x27;s deposit insurance system, read or listen my article at &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/blog/posts/deposit-guarantee-scheme-japan-dia-dicj/" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/blog/posts/deposit-guarantee-scheme-japan-dia-dicj/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;It covers Japan&amp;#x27;s deposit insurance&amp;#x27;s:&lt;br/&gt;• Legal framework&lt;br/&gt;• Historical cases&lt;br/&gt;• Risk analysis&lt;br/&gt;• EU comparison&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Got questions? Ask me! 👇&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/for-a-deeper-dive-into-japans-deposit-insurance-system-read" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-10-27 15:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/how-does-japan-protect-bank-deposits-when-banks-fail" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/how-does-japan-protect-bank-deposits-when-banks-fail</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 27 Oct 2024 15:51:15 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>If USD/EUR falls below the pink trend line, it's a fall to ≈0.8785</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/if-usd-eur-falls-below-the-pink-trend-line-its-a-fall-to-0</link><description>From here the downtrend towards ≈0.8689 (monthly level) is setup to be resumed &amp; likely under a tighter channel (up: pink, bottom: green) - so a faster downfall of USD against EUR  Stay tuned 📻</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;From here the downtrend towards ≈0.8689 (monthly level) is setup to be resumed &amp;amp; likely under a tighter channel (up: pink, bottom: green) - so a faster downfall of USD against EUR&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Stay tuned 📻&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/if-usd-eur-falls-below-the-pink-trend-line-its-a-fall-to-0.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/if-usd-eur-falls-below-the-pink-trend-line-its-a-fall-to-0" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-05-30 18:11&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;USD/EUR price action is developing exactly as described 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Once price went below the pink trend support line it fell through to 0.8785 exactly, before resuming a steeper downtrend after a failed breakout&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/usd-eur-price-action-is-developing-exactly-as-described.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/usd-eur-price-action-is-developing-exactly-as-described" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-02 16:15&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/if-usd-eur-falls-below-the-pink-trend-line-its-a-fall-to-0" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/if-usd-eur-falls-below-the-pink-trend-line-its-a-fall-to-0</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 02 Jun 2025 15:15:33 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Observe</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/observe</link><description>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/observe.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/observe" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-06 21:13&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;There you go 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/there-you-go.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/there-you-go" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-06 21:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/observe" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/observe</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 06 Jun 2025 20:54:35 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🚨 Ruble is up 30% on USD 2025 YTD</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/ruble-is-up-30-on-usd-2025-ytd</link><description>82-68 is a strong support - including pre-Ukraine war liquidity  A small pullback is very likely to happen, but in the medium-long term it's heading towards the 68  Once sanctions are dropped by US…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;82-68 is a strong support - including pre-Ukraine war liquidity&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;A small pullback is very likely to happen, but in the medium-long term it&amp;#x27;s heading towards the 68&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Once sanctions are dropped by US &amp;amp; EU - RUB will skyrocket&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/ruble-is-up-30-on-usd-2025-ytd.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ruble-is-up-30-on-usd-2025-ytd" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-04-14 10:21&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;The Ruble thesis remains valid&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Up ≈13% on the USD in the past quarter&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-ruble-thesis-remains-valid.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-ruble-thesis-remains-valid" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-10 19:38&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/ruble-is-up-30-on-usd-2025-ytd" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/ruble-is-up-30-on-usd-2025-ytd</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 10 Jun 2025 18:38:19 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🚀 Are you ready?</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/are-you-ready</link><description>New all time high for gold is just around the corner  And there will already be a strong resistance in the ≈$3300 area, due to the recent accumulation  Low(er) interest rates + high(er) CPI will…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;New all time high for gold is just around the corner&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;And there will already be a strong resistance in the ≈$3300 area, due to the recent accumulation&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Low(er) interest rates + high(er) CPI will then push it up even further&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/are-you-ready.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/are-you-ready" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-12 00:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;I hope you used the earlier advice to prepare for a new gold ATH&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The turn around the corner has begun&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/i-hope-you-used-the-earlier-advice-to-prepare-for-a-new-gold.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/i-hope-you-used-the-earlier-advice-to-prepare-for-a-new-gold" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-13 02:06&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/are-you-ready" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/are-you-ready</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 13 Jun 2025 01:06:43 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🇺🇸 USD index bearish/in a downtrend</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/usd-index-bearish-in-a-downtrend</link><description>5Y timeframe weekly chart shows lower highs &amp; lows  Ever since Trump took office, every $DXY weekly candle has been red  Greatest USD economy in history 🫠</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;5Y timeframe weekly chart shows lower highs &amp;amp; lows&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Ever since Trump took office, every $DXY weekly candle has been red&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Greatest USD economy in history 🫠&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/usd-index-bearish-in-a-downtrend.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/usd-index-bearish-in-a-downtrend" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-04-19 12:47&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Falling US Dollar index played out exactly as expected&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;2 months later and it&amp;#x27;s down another full point&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/falling-us-dollar-index-played-out-exactly-as-expected.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/falling-us-dollar-index-played-out-exactly-as-expected" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-13 16:44&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/usd-index-bearish-in-a-downtrend" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/usd-index-bearish-in-a-downtrend</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 13 Jun 2025 15:44:45 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>'The market is never wrong' #1</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-1</link><description>A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything &amp; prices accordingly - even before the official news  Okay.  Now wait &amp; watch crude oil &amp; gold raise up even more in price very…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything &amp;amp; prices accordingly - even before the official news&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Okay.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Now wait &amp;amp; watch crude oil &amp;amp; gold raise up even more in price very soon&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This isn&amp;#x27;t a joke&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-market-is-never-wrong.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-market-is-never-wrong" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-16 13:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;💾⏰ Just like with my post about the price of gold a few months ago - feel free to save &amp;amp; set a reminder for this one&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The prediction will be correct once again&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/just-like-with-my-post-about-the-price-of-gold-a-few-months" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-16 13:49&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-1" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-1</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 16 Jun 2025 12:49:56 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Now that gold is down &amp; below $3.3K, it's a good time to say this:</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/now-that-gold-is-down-below-3-3k-its-a-good-time-to-say-this</link><description>🎉  New ATH coming very soon 🎉  In the time of political, civil &amp; economic ambiguity - there is only one recourse - Au  Lower interest rates &amp; QE are coming soon - FIAT down, gold up  💾 Save this &amp;…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🎉  New ATH coming very soon 🎉&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;In the time of political, civil &amp;amp; economic ambiguity - there is only one recourse - Au&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Lower interest rates &amp;amp; QE are coming soon - FIAT down, gold up&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;💾 Save this &amp;amp; check back&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/now-that-gold-is-down-below-3-3k-its-a-good-time-to-say-this.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/now-that-gold-is-down-below-3-3k-its-a-good-time-to-say-this" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-04-25 11:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚀📈 NEW Gold ATH is in - $3440 per oz&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I&amp;#x27;ve been warning about this for a while&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;You had a little over a month since my original post to load up&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/new-gold-ath-is-in-3440-per-oz.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/new-gold-ath-is-in-3440-per-oz" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-13 14:38&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;BTW I soon realized this wasn&amp;#x27;t an actual ATH for gold yet - but it is coming&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The historical chart is showing closing prices, not maximum&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So I inadvertently compared current price with closing historical price&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Good news - more time for you to accumulate gold before new ATH 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/btw-i-soon-realized-this-wasnt-an-actual-ath-for-gold-yet" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-16 16:33&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/now-that-gold-is-down-below-3-3k-its-a-good-time-to-say-this" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/now-that-gold-is-down-below-3-3k-its-a-good-time-to-say-this</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 16 Jun 2025 15:33:24 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>'The market is never wrong' #2</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-2</link><description>A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything &amp; prices accordingly - even before the official news  Okay.  Now wait &amp; watch crude oil &amp; gold raise up even more in price very…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything &amp;amp; prices accordingly - even before the official news&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Okay.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Now wait &amp;amp; watch crude oil &amp;amp; gold raise up even more in price very soon&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This isn&amp;#x27;t a joke&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-market-is-never-wrong.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-market-is-never-wrong" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-16 13:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;aaand crude oil futures are back above $70&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/aaand-crude-oil-futures-are-back-above-70.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/aaand-crude-oil-futures-are-back-above-70" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-16 17:39&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-2" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-2</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 16 Jun 2025 16:39:42 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>'The market is never wrong' #3</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-3</link><description>A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything &amp; prices accordingly - even before the official news  Okay.  Now wait &amp; watch crude oil &amp; gold raise up even more in price very…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything &amp;amp; prices accordingly - even before the official news&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Okay.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Now wait &amp;amp; watch crude oil &amp;amp; gold raise up even more in price very soon&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This isn&amp;#x27;t a joke&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-market-is-never-wrong.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-market-is-never-wrong" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-16 13:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Oil &amp;amp; Gold back on the rise&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Just as I wrote earlier today&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/oil-gold-back-on-the-rise.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/oil-gold-back-on-the-rise" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-16 23:52&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🛢️ Crude oil back above $72 per barrel&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Just as I wrote yesterday&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/crude-oil-back-above-72-per-barrel.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/crude-oil-back-above-72-per-barrel" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-17 17:20&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-3" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-3</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 17 Jun 2025 16:20:44 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🤯 Gold may just go straight to $3500 in the next few hours #1</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-1</link><description>Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-13 16:29&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;always important to remember that gold isn&amp;#x27;t crypto and volatility is a lot more conservative there 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you&amp;#x27;re talking central banks balance sheet assets - not so much speculative, hedging or portfolio management&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;yet, $3500 gold is just around the corner&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/always-important-to-remember-that-gold-isnt-crypto-and" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-20 19:29&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-1" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-1</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 20 Jun 2025 18:29:44 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>💡FYI there is plain text version of my X posts: #1</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/fyi-there-is-plain-text-version-of-my-x-posts-1</link><description>https://illya.sh/thoughts/thoughts.txt  a .txt file which you can access on any device - including smart watch &amp; IoT  no need for JavaScript, CSS or HTML rendering - saves electricity 😄🔋⚡️  text is…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/thoughts.txt" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/thoughts/thoughts.txt&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;a .txt file which you can access on any device - including smart watch &amp;amp; IoT&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;no need for JavaScript, CSS or HTML rendering - saves electricity 😄🔋⚡️&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;text is an LLM-native format - so AI models can easily access, index &amp;amp; reason&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/fyi-there-is-plain-text-version-of-my-x-posts.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/fyi-there-is-plain-text-version-of-my-x-posts" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-21 16:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this was fully vibe-coded&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i wanted to have a place to backup my X posts - own them under my own domain &amp;amp; be SEO/LLM discovery friendly by having all of content generated statically&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it&amp;#x27;s written in Python &amp;amp; comes with Cursor rules so you can add features without writing code&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/this-was-fully-vibe-coded.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-was-fully-vibe-coded" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-21 16:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;that&amp;#x27;s something that I intend to open-source, but the repo needs a bit of a cleanup&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i&amp;#x27;ve been using it on production, while actively adding new feature for a few months now&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it&amp;#x27;s build so you can customize &amp;amp; evolve for your needs fully with AI&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;LLM-driven creativity era ✨&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/thats-something-that-i-intend-to-open-source-but-the-repo" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-21 16:46&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/fyi-there-is-plain-text-version-of-my-x-posts-1" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/fyi-there-is-plain-text-version-of-my-x-posts-1</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 21 Jun 2025 15:46:46 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>💡FYI there is plain text version of my X posts: #2</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/fyi-there-is-plain-text-version-of-my-x-posts-2</link><description>https://illya.sh/thoughts/thoughts.txt  a .txt file which you can access on any device - including smart watch &amp; IoT  no need for JavaScript, CSS or HTML rendering - saves electricity 😄🔋⚡️  text is…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/thoughts.txt" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/thoughts/thoughts.txt&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;a .txt file which you can access on any device - including smart watch &amp;amp; IoT&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;no need for JavaScript, CSS or HTML rendering - saves electricity 😄🔋⚡️&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;text is an LLM-native format - so AI models can easily access, index &amp;amp; reason&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/fyi-there-is-plain-text-version-of-my-x-posts.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/fyi-there-is-plain-text-version-of-my-x-posts" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-21 16:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;although google clearly isn&amp;#x27;t a fan of plain text 😭&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;maybe it is:&lt;br/&gt;- 0️⃣ performance&lt;br/&gt;- 0️⃣ accessibility&lt;br/&gt;- 0️⃣ best practices&lt;br/&gt;- 0️⃣ SEO&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;but it still is:&lt;br/&gt;- 💯 accessibility&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i mean... you can access a text file from literally anywhere&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;+ your favorite LLM will thank you 🥰&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/although-google-clearly-isnt-a-fan-of-plain-text.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/although-google-clearly-isnt-a-fan-of-plain-text" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-21 16:56&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;grok confirms what I said regarding .txt format ✅&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;LLM AI models would LOVE if you website provided the key content in plain text&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the good news is that you can vibe-code that feature&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;text is the universal medium of information, for both, humans and large language models&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/grok-confirms-what-i-said-regarding-txt-format.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/grok-confirms-what-i-said-regarding-txt-format" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-21 17:13&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;ChatGPT reaffirms its preference for .txt over .html ✅&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if your webpage/landing page is loaded with pretty effects and CSS - remember that that is just a layer of obscurity for the LLM&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;host a plain text version as well - it&amp;#x27;s simple &amp;amp; effective&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;≈something akin to llms.txt&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/chatgpt-reaffirms-its-preference-for-txt-over-html.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/chatgpt-reaffirms-its-preference-for-txt-over-html" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-21 17:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/fyi-there-is-plain-text-version-of-my-x-posts-2" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/fyi-there-is-plain-text-version-of-my-x-posts-2</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 21 Jun 2025 16:28:08 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🎯 Ethereum fell below $2500</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/ethereum-fell-below-2500</link><description>first part of my thesis has already played out - a retracement instead of a breakout  weekly candles show constant rejection  now await for what comes next ⏰</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;first part of my thesis has already played out - a retracement instead of a breakout&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;weekly candles show constant rejection&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;now await for what comes next ⏰&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/ethereum-fell-below-2500.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ethereum-fell-below-2500" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-18 13:48&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🎯 Ethereum heading down towards $2180&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;exactly as I&amp;#x27;ve been writing for several days&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so many accounts with huge following were promising you an immediate bull run&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;now you know which ones you can mute 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/ethereum-heading-down-towards-2180.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ethereum-heading-down-towards-2180" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-20 19:23&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;hello hello looks like there wasn&amp;#x27;t much momentum behind ethereum&amp;#x27;s pullback&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the selling pressure is strong&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;price downside towards $2180 incoming&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/hello-hello-looks-like-there-wasnt-much-momentum-behind.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/hello-hello-looks-like-there-wasnt-much-momentum-behind" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-21 18:48&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/ethereum-fell-below-2500" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/ethereum-fell-below-2500</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 21 Jun 2025 17:48:24 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>'The market is never wrong' #4</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-4</link><description>A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything &amp; prices accordingly - even before the official news  Okay.  Now wait &amp; watch crude oil &amp; gold raise up even more in price very…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything &amp;amp; prices accordingly - even before the official news&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Okay.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Now wait &amp;amp; watch crude oil &amp;amp; gold raise up even more in price very soon&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This isn&amp;#x27;t a joke&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-market-is-never-wrong.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-market-is-never-wrong" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-16 13:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;both, gold &amp;amp; crude oil are finishing their consolidation before a further upside&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;bookmark this one for later 💾&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/both-gold-crude-oil-are-finishing-their-consolidation-before.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/both-gold-crude-oil-are-finishing-their-consolidation-before" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-21 18:52&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-4" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-4</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 21 Jun 2025 17:52:15 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Silver back to August 2020 price #1</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/silver-back-to-august-2020-price-1</link><description>After a tariffs-induced pullback of 15% today, silver is now at start of COVID prices   So much inflation that still isn't priced in   It will recover. And a lot!</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;After a tariffs-induced pullback of 15% today, silver is now at start of COVID prices&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt; So much inflation that still isn&amp;#x27;t priced in &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;It will recover. And a lot!&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/silver-back-to-august-2020-price.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/silver-back-to-august-2020-price" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-04-04 20:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;silver was another spot-on prediction ✅&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;2.5 months later the price is up ≈25%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;silver&amp;#x27;s price uptrend will continue&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;when silver&amp;#x27;s price increase is in the magnitude of risky assets - it&amp;#x27;s clearly telling you something&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;listen to it 🦻&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/silver-was-another-spot-on-prediction.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/silver-was-another-spot-on-prediction" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-21 22:14&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/silver-back-to-august-2020-price-1" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/silver-back-to-august-2020-price-1</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 21 Jun 2025 21:14:40 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>While Ethereum has built a strong-ish support in the current area, it currently looks more likely to fall towards the ≈$2180 monthly support #1</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/while-ethereum-has-built-a-strong-ish-support-in-the-current</link><description>Do not underestimate what the new all time highs in gold are telling you</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Do not underestimate what the new all time highs in gold are telling you&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/while-ethereum-has-built-a-strong-ish-support-in-the-current.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/while-ethereum-has-built-a-strong-ish-support-in-the-current" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-13 16:55&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;and a week later Ethereum indeed falls sharply towards the monthly support 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;read up my other posts for more detail - if you&amp;#x27;re interested in the rationale behind this move&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/and-a-week-later-ethereum-indeed-falls-sharply-towards-the.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/and-a-week-later-ethereum-indeed-falls-sharply-towards-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-21 22:44&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;ethereum&amp;#x27;s price will very likely retrace upwards once it reaches the core monthly support area&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the buying pressure there would be immense&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the same is true for bitcoin&amp;#x27;s support&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ethereums-price-will-very-likely-retrace-upwards-once-it" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-21 22:56&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;ethereum&amp;#x27;s resumed downfall towards monthly ≈$2180 support may be resumed in the next hour&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is a 5 minute-candle chart - but contextualize my argument within the greater trend&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/ethereums-resumed-downfall-towards-monthly-2180-support-may.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ethereums-resumed-downfall-towards-monthly-2180-support-may" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-21 23:36&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;look at that buy pressure exhaustion 😫&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;ethereum&amp;#x27;s about to go back into red (or yellow, in my chart)&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/look-at-that-buy-pressure-exhaustion.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/look-at-that-buy-pressure-exhaustion" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 00:03&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;okay looks like it started before I could finish typing 😂&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/okay-looks-like-it-started-before-i-could-finish-typing.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/okay-looks-like-it-started-before-i-could-finish-typing" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 00:05&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;and ethereum&amp;#x27;s downtrend continues on…&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;towards the monthly support area&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/and-ethereums-downtrend-continues-on.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/and-ethereums-downtrend-continues-on" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 00:20&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/while-ethereum-has-built-a-strong-ish-support-in-the-current" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/while-ethereum-has-built-a-strong-ish-support-in-the-current</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 21 Jun 2025 23:20:41 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>record $7 trillion USD in money market funds (mmf)</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/record-7-trillion-usd-in-money-market-funds-mmf</link><description>this risk-averse liquidity is bound to flow into into other financial assets at some point  mmf consists of short-term collateralized loans - credit that is NOT captured by M2  last two outflows…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this risk-averse liquidity is bound to flow into into other financial assets at some point&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;mmf consists of short-term collateralized loans - credit that is NOT captured by M2&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;last two outflows coincided with bitcoin bullrun&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/record-7-trillion-usd-in-money-market-funds-mmf.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/record-7-trillion-usd-in-money-market-funds-mmf" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 09:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;money market funds yield close to the risk free rate (think of FED funds rate in the US, or ECB deposit rate in the EU), while offering less risk due to shorter maturity&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;essentially, you provide a collateral (highly liquid - usually sovereign debt) and get a loan against it&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/money-market-funds-yield-close-to-the-risk-free-rate-think" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 09:34&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/record-7-trillion-usd-in-money-market-funds-mmf" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/record-7-trillion-usd-in-money-market-funds-mmf</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 22 Jun 2025 08:34:22 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>While Ethereum has built a strong-ish support in the current area, it currently looks more likely to fall towards the ≈$2180 monthly support #2</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/while-ethereum-has-built-a-strong-ish-support-in-the-current-2</link><description>Do not underestimate what the new all time highs in gold are telling you</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Do not underestimate what the new all time highs in gold are telling you&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/while-ethereum-has-built-a-strong-ish-support-in-the-current.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/while-ethereum-has-built-a-strong-ish-support-in-the-current" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-13 16:55&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;here&amp;#x27;s some ethereum alpha for the next hours ⬇️&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;ETH is approaching a large liquidation area at ≈2240 USD&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the closer we get to the price - the more long closures &amp;amp; liquidations&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;first price down due the selling pressure, then expect a rebound up &amp;amp; I already wrote what&amp;#x27;s next&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/heres-some-ethereum-alpha-for-the-next-hours.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/heres-some-ethereum-alpha-for-the-next-hours" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 10:45&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/while-ethereum-has-built-a-strong-ish-support-in-the-current-2" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/while-ethereum-has-built-a-strong-ish-support-in-the-current-2</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 22 Jun 2025 09:45:46 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>While Ethereum has built a strong-ish support in the current area, it currently looks more likely to fall towards the ≈$2180 monthly support #3</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/while-ethereum-has-built-a-strong-ish-support-in-the-current-3</link><description>Do not underestimate what the new all time highs in gold are telling you</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Do not underestimate what the new all time highs in gold are telling you&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/while-ethereum-has-built-a-strong-ish-support-in-the-current.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/while-ethereum-has-built-a-strong-ish-support-in-the-current" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-13 16:55&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;i warned about ethereum&amp;#x27;s price fall towards the monthly support over a week ago - back when everyone was still bullish&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;now, another large liquidation price zone is approaching ≈$2240&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;what do you think will be the price action after monthly level rebound? trend up or down?&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/i-warned-about-ethereums-price-fall-towards-the-monthly" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 11:13&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/while-ethereum-has-built-a-strong-ish-support-in-the-current-3" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/while-ethereum-has-built-a-strong-ish-support-in-the-current-3</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 22 Jun 2025 10:13:38 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🤯 Gold may just go straight to $3500 in the next few hours #2</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-2</link><description>Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-13 16:29&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;soooo… new gold ATH next week?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;look at gold&amp;#x27;s price chart with weekly candles - it&amp;#x27;s unbelievable 🤯&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold is going up like a risky asset - but it in fact is a reflection of risk&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;now it looks like a breakout from another consolidation phase 📈&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/soooo-new-gold-ath-next-week.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/soooo-new-gold-ath-next-week" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-21 18:42&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;all eyes on gold futures 👀&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;COMEX gold futures trading open in 13h&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;markets are closed now, but blockchain never sleeps&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;on-chain gold-backed token futures may give you a heads-up - they&amp;#x27;re up ≈1.3% from yesterday&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;interesting to see gold moves after open&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;spoiler: higher price&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/all-eyes-on-gold-futures.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/all-eyes-on-gold-futures" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 10:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold&amp;#x27;s behavior during the current &amp;#x27;bullrun&amp;#x27; has been consistently to flip previous week&amp;#x27;s resistance to new support&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in the chart - the green vertical lines are weekly levels&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold&amp;#x27;s current price action suggests it&amp;#x27;s flipping another resistance for support&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Road to $3500 🚀&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/golds-behavior-during-the-current-bullrun-has-been.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/golds-behavior-during-the-current-bullrun-has-been" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 12:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;btw here I&amp;#x27;m looking at PAXG (Paxos Gold) token&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;essentially, a 1:1 gold-backed ERC-20 token&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;there is also XAUT from Tether&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;whenever TradFi markets are closed - it&amp;#x27;s your go-to for alpha insights&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;can&amp;#x27;t believe that in 2025 there is still such a thing as market closure 🤯&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/btw-here-im-looking-at-paxg-paxos-gold-token" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 12:10&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-2" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-2</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 22 Jun 2025 11:10:58 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>UN's Model Double Taxation Convention has a clear key benefit over OCED's</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/uns-model-double-taxation-convention-has-a-clear-key-benefit</link><description>since UN's model gives more taxing rights for the source state - it's the one that makes sense for developing economies  imagine a developed nation benefiting from cheaper labor in the source state…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;since UN&amp;#x27;s model gives more taxing rights for the source state - it&amp;#x27;s the one that makes sense for developing economies&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;imagine a developed nation benefiting from cheaper labor in the source state - who created the workforce in the first place, and having their tax base eroded in favor of resident state&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so the resident state would get double benefit:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ cheaper labor&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ higher tax income for the government &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;on the other hand you could argue for OCED&amp;#x27;s model favoring a higher volume of investment, thus effectively distributing more wages throughout the economy. this channels the funds more directly to the consumers, which would end up increasing their purchasing power more than if it had to go through the government first&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;but then again, you must remember the global market is NOT a free market economy. existing legislation overall favors more developed countries, so protective measures for developing countries in the international tax law may make a lot of sense&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/uns-model-double-taxation-convention-has-a-clear-key-benefit.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/uns-model-double-taxation-convention-has-a-clear-key-benefit" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 14:20&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/uns-model-double-taxation-convention-has-a-clear-key-benefit" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/uns-model-double-taxation-convention-has-a-clear-key-benefit</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 22 Jun 2025 13:20:50 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>While Ethereum has built a strong-ish support in the current area, it currently looks more likely to fall towards the ≈$2180 monthly support #4</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/while-ethereum-has-built-a-strong-ish-support-in-the-current-4</link><description>Do not underestimate what the new all time highs in gold are telling you</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Do not underestimate what the new all time highs in gold are telling you&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/while-ethereum-has-built-a-strong-ish-support-in-the-current.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/while-ethereum-has-built-a-strong-ish-support-in-the-current" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-13 16:55&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;now it&amp;#x27;s official 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;ethereum price fell to $2180 📉&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;interestingly, the majority sentiment of large following X accounts seemed to be bullish&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;please note, I wrote the original post more than a week ago - back then the market sentiment was extremely bullish&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/now-its-official.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/now-its-official" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 14:34&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/while-ethereum-has-built-a-strong-ish-support-in-the-current-4" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/while-ethereum-has-built-a-strong-ish-support-in-the-current-4</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 22 Jun 2025 13:34:49 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🤯 Gold may just go straight to $3500 in the next few hours #8</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-8</link><description>Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-13 16:29&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;soooo… new gold ATH next week?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;look at gold&amp;#x27;s price chart with weekly candles - it&amp;#x27;s unbelievable 🤯&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold is going up like a risky asset - but it in fact is a reflection of risk&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;now it looks like a breakout from another consolidation phase 📈&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/soooo-new-gold-ath-next-week.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/soooo-new-gold-ath-next-week" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-21 18:42&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold futures market opens in 2 mins!!&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;are you ready?&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-futures-market-opens-in-2-mins" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 22:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;and this is how the gold market opened&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;green candle straight to $3400 🚀&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/and-this-is-how-the-gold-market-opened" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 23:07&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-8" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-8</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 22 Jun 2025 22:07:18 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>'The market is never wrong' #5</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-5</link><description>A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything &amp; prices accordingly - even before the official news  Okay.  Now wait &amp; watch crude oil &amp; gold raise up even more in price very…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything &amp;amp; prices accordingly - even before the official news&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Okay.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Now wait &amp;amp; watch crude oil &amp;amp; gold raise up even more in price very soon&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This isn&amp;#x27;t a joke&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-market-is-never-wrong.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-market-is-never-wrong" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-16 13:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;initial raise, now followed by a pullback&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;large geopolitical events do such moves, however don&amp;#x27;t you for a minute think that the thesis is now invalidated 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;both of these commodities will continue their uptrend&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/initial-raise-now-followed-by-a-pullback" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-25 13:15&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-5" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-5</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 25 Jun 2025 12:15:55 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🚨US Dollar Index going to ≈98.3</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/us-dollar-index-going-to-98-3</link><description>Current price is a strong monthly level  The next destination is low 98's</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Current price is a strong monthly level&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The next destination is low 98&amp;#x27;s&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/us-dollar-index-going-to-98-3.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/us-dollar-index-going-to-98-3" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-04-17 15:22&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;USD decline prediction was spot-on ✅&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;2 months later and US dollar index just bounced off from 97&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the past 6 months have been a downtrend for $DXY&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/usd-decline-prediction-was-spot-on.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/usd-decline-prediction-was-spot-on" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-26 14:25&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/us-dollar-index-going-to-98-3" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/us-dollar-index-going-to-98-3</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 26 Jun 2025 13:25:34 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>If you only understood how cheap gold is now. To put it in perspective, its current FIAT price only reflects inflation prior to 2011 🤯</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/if-you-only-understood-how-cheap-gold-is-now-to-put-it-in</link><description>Any direct or indirect inflation following that time period has not yet been accounted for  You don't have to trust me. Trust the price action</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Any direct or indirect inflation following that time period has not yet been accounted for&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;You don&amp;#x27;t have to trust me. Trust the price action&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/if-you-only-understood-how-cheap-gold-is-now-to-put-it-in.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/if-you-only-understood-how-cheap-gold-is-now-to-put-it-in" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2023-12-11 23:23&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;expected? yes ✅&lt;br/&gt;normal? no ❌&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold shouldn&amp;#x27;t be up 50% in a year&lt;br/&gt;and you shouldn&amp;#x27;t ignore what that means&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i wrote this back in 2013. as the current highs are consolidated - it will move up further&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;maybe when you&amp;#x27;re reading this the above has already played out 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/expected-yes" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-26 17:32&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/if-you-only-understood-how-cheap-gold-is-now-to-put-it-in" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/if-you-only-understood-how-cheap-gold-is-now-to-put-it-in</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 26 Jun 2025 16:32:13 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>central banks will continue to buy gold #1</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/central-banks-will-continue-to-buy-gold-1</link><description>you'll be able to confirm that in their upcoming balance sheets reports. pay special attention to China &amp; Russia  enjoy the dip, because smart money is!</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;you&amp;#x27;ll be able to confirm that in their upcoming balance sheets reports. pay special attention to China &amp;amp; Russia&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;enjoy the dip, because smart money is!&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/central-banks-will-continue-to-buy-gold.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/central-banks-will-continue-to-buy-gold" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-26 15:52&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;central bank balance sheets are an underrated resource for understanding the global liquidity moves&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if you&amp;#x27;re following my posts - you already know that&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;rising US bond yields, ruble &amp;amp; gold&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;falling USD&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i&amp;#x27;ve been warning about it for months&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;90&amp;#x27;s style data = massive alpha 😂⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/central-bank-balance-sheets-are-an-underrated-resource-for.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/central-bank-balance-sheets-are-an-underrated-resource-for" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-26 19:55&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/central-banks-will-continue-to-buy-gold-1" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/central-banks-will-continue-to-buy-gold-1</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 26 Jun 2025 18:55:40 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🚀 added stateless comments on posts</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/added-stateless-comments-on-posts</link><description>i wanted to add comments to my statically-generated thoughts site, but didn't want to depend on storage or server-side logic  solution: send comments via e-mail, X/twitter or telegram  demo in reply…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;i wanted to add comments to my statically-generated thoughts site, but didn&amp;#x27;t want to depend on storage or server-side logic&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;solution: send comments via e-mail, X/twitter or telegram&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;demo in reply ⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/added-stateless-comments-on-posts.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/added-stateless-comments-on-posts" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-28 09:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;💬 each comment is automatically saved&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;with a 7-day expiration - all locally in user storage&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so essentially an automatic draft&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;try it yourself: go to one of my posts/thoughts, press/click comment emoji, write the comment, close the tab. the comment will be there on re-open&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/each-comment-is-automatically-saved.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/each-comment-is-automatically-saved" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-29 11:01&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/added-stateless-comments-on-posts" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/added-stateless-comments-on-posts</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 29 Jun 2025 10:01:24 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>💧FED swap lines = infinite liquidity pool</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/fed-swap-lines-infinite-liquidity-pool</link><description>👉 here's how:  1️⃣ central banks exchange their foreign currency for USD, 7-80 days later, they reverse the exchange at the same rate + fee  2️⃣ central banks then lend these new USD to commercial…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;👉 here&amp;#x27;s how:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ central banks exchange their foreign currency for USD, 7-80 days later, they reverse the exchange at the same rate + fee&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ central banks then lend these new USD to commercial banks&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;thus, USD demand is met&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/fed-swap-lines-infinite-liquidity-pool.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/fed-swap-lines-infinite-liquidity-pool" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-29 13:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;FED swap line operations reach ≈$600 bn&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;while the swaps are closed/repaid in less than a year, ≈80% of the repayment comes from newly issued wholesale debt&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;thus, ≈80% of the swap volume eventually becomes new currency in circulation&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;and then you wonder about inflation 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/fed-swap-line-operations-reach-600-bn" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-29 13:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;new currency in circulation is just one of the side-effects&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;and that transition is neither direct, nor instant&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;before these funds effectively become new currency, they flow into financial markets - that&amp;#x27;s why you see the stock market going up first&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the same for risky assets&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/new-currency-in-circulation-is-just-one-of-the-side-effects" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-29 13:57&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;check the correlation between FED swap line volumes and Bitcoin price&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;large spikes in swap volume trigger an uptrend in Bitcoin&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;understanding these global liquidity flows helps to visualize them as a part of the larger system and understand where it&amp;#x27;s likely to move next&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/check-the-correlation-between-fed-swap-line-volumes-and" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-29 14:05&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/fed-swap-lines-infinite-liquidity-pool" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/fed-swap-lines-infinite-liquidity-pool</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 29 Jun 2025 13:05:59 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🚨🏦 claims that gold is a Tier 1 asset under Basel III are FALSE: #1</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/claims-that-gold-is-a-tier-1-asset-under-basel-iii-are-false-2</link><description>1. gold is NOT a Tier capital under Basel - it's on the liability, not asset side  2. gold had 0% risk weight since Basel I (no haircut)  3. gold is still NOT considered a high quality liquid asset…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;1. gold is NOT a Tier capital under Basel - it&amp;#x27;s on the liability, not asset side&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;2. gold had 0% risk weight since Basel I (no haircut)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;3. gold is still NOT considered a high quality liquid asset (HQLA)&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/claims-that-gold-is-a-tier-1-asset-under-basel-iii-are-false" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-02 20:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🏦 under Basel III  gold is subject additional funding requirements&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;there&amp;#x27;s a 85% required stable funding (RSF) factor on gold under net stable funding ratio (NSFR)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so for every $1B of gold that a bank holds - $850M must be funded with longer term retail or wholesale funding&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/under-basel-iii-gold-is-subject-additional-funding.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/under-basel-iii-gold-is-subject-additional-funding" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-02 20:53&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/claims-that-gold-is-a-tier-1-asset-under-basel-iii-are-false-2" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/claims-that-gold-is-a-tier-1-asset-under-basel-iii-are-false-2</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 02 Jul 2025 19:53:31 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🚨🏦 claims that gold is a Tier 1 asset under Basel III are FALSE: #2</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/claims-that-gold-is-a-tier-1-asset-under-basel-iii-are-false</link><description>1. gold is NOT a Tier capital under Basel - it's on the liability, not asset side  2. gold had 0% risk weight since Basel I (no haircut)  3. gold is still NOT considered a high quality liquid asset…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;1. gold is NOT a Tier capital under Basel - it&amp;#x27;s on the liability, not asset side&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;2. gold had 0% risk weight since Basel I (no haircut)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;3. gold is still NOT considered a high quality liquid asset (HQLA)&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/claims-that-gold-is-a-tier-1-asset-under-basel-iii-are-false" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-02 20:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Basel framework treats &amp;quot;capital&amp;quot; as a funding source that can absorb losses, rather than an owned asset&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;assets are funded by liabilities and equity, so assets are not a funding source&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Tier 1 capital is the first-line of losses absorption for a bank&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so gold can&amp;#x27;t be in &amp;quot;Tier&amp;quot;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/basel-framework-treats-capital-as-a-funding-source-that-can" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-02 21:13&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/claims-that-gold-is-a-tier-1-asset-under-basel-iii-are-false" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/claims-that-gold-is-a-tier-1-asset-under-basel-iii-are-false</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 02 Jul 2025 20:13:02 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>repurchase agreements are almost always over-collateralized #1</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/repurchase-agreements-are-almost-always-over-collateralized-2</link><description>the borrower undervalues the collateral by a percentage (haircut) - this is a buffer against price volatility  the purchase and repurchase price are computed over the post-haircut value</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the borrower undervalues the collateral by a percentage (haircut) - this is a buffer against price volatility&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the purchase and repurchase price are computed over the post-haircut value&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/repurchase-agreements-are-almost-always-over-collateralized" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-03 17:44&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so if you have a UST bond worth $100:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;lender applies a haircut (e.g. 2%) - 100*(1-0.02)=$98&lt;br/&gt;lender sets a repurchase price (e.g. $98.013)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so you use your $100 bond to get a $98 loan, for which you must repay with a fee (interest) $98.013&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-if-you-have-a-ust-bond-worth-100" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-03 17:44&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;in the end, you get your UST bond back&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;and it makes sense for you to repurchase the bond (collateral) even if the price falls&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;as long as the price fall is &amp;lt; ≈haircut (2% in our case)&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/in-the-end-you-get-your-ust-bond-back" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-03 17:44&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;repo markets are HUGE - about the size of USD M2!&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;they underpin the global financial system&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;however, there&amp;#x27;s not many DeFi protocols addressing this part of the market&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i may pick it up in the near future&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if you&amp;#x27;re working on something similar - hit me up!&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/repo-markets-are-huge-about-the-size-of-usd-m2" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-03 17:46&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;overall blockchain DeFi lacks development for short-term lending markets&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;short-term market volumes are larger than M2 &amp;amp; Co.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;yes, you can lend on AAVE, but rates vary greatly&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/overall-blockchain-defi-lacks-development-for-short-term" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-03 17:48&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/repurchase-agreements-are-almost-always-over-collateralized-2" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/repurchase-agreements-are-almost-always-over-collateralized-2</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 03 Jul 2025 16:48:28 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>repurchase agreements are almost always over-collateralized #2</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/repurchase-agreements-are-almost-always-over-collateralized</link><description>the borrower undervalues the collateral by a percentage (haircut) - this is a buffer against price volatility  the purchase and repurchase price are computed over the post-haircut value</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the borrower undervalues the collateral by a percentage (haircut) - this is a buffer against price volatility&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the purchase and repurchase price are computed over the post-haircut value&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/repurchase-agreements-are-almost-always-over-collateralized" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-03 17:44&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so if you have a UST bond worth $100:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;lender applies a haircut (e.g. 2%) - 100*(1-0.02)=$98&lt;br/&gt;lender sets a repurchase price (e.g. $98.013)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so you use your $100 bond to get a $98 loan, for which you must repay with a fee (interest) $98.013&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-if-you-have-a-ust-bond-worth-100" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-03 17:44&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;in the end, you get your UST bond back&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;and it makes sense for you to repurchase the bond (collateral) even if the price falls&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;as long as the price fall is &amp;lt; ≈haircut (2% in our case)&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/in-the-end-you-get-your-ust-bond-back" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-03 17:44&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;repo markets are HUGE - about the size of USD M2!&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;they underpin the global financial system&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;however, there&amp;#x27;s not many DeFi protocols addressing this part of the market&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i may pick it up in the near future&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if you&amp;#x27;re working on something similar - hit me up!&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/repo-markets-are-huge-about-the-size-of-usd-m2" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-03 17:46&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;remember those HUGE repo markets that I talked about?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;US bonds/treasuries are the favorite collateral for those transactions&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;and that&amp;#x27;s why they&amp;#x27;re not going away anytime soon&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;but of course, the financial system is slowly diversifying&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/remember-those-huge-repo-markets-that-i-talked-about" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-03 17:49&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/repurchase-agreements-are-almost-always-over-collateralized" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/repurchase-agreements-are-almost-always-over-collateralized</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 03 Jul 2025 16:49:16 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>90% of all newly issued debt is for refinancing of existing debt, not new debt/financing</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/90-of-all-newly-issued-debt-is-for-refinancing-of-existing</link><description>Thus, new debt is extremely inflationary &amp; asset bubble-nurturing  The financial system is extremely leveraged at a high risk  We need to fix this. DeFi is the tool</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Thus, new debt is extremely inflationary &amp;amp; asset bubble-nurturing&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The financial system is extremely leveraged at a high risk&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;We need to fix this. DeFi is the tool&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/90-of-all-newly-issued-debt-is-for-refinancing-of-existing.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/90-of-all-newly-issued-debt-is-for-refinancing-of-existing" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-05-27 15:22&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;most of debt is issued for re-financing of existing debt, not for new debt&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;repo markets are the backbone of that. and since they&amp;#x27;re collateralized loans - there is a huge demand for collateral/safe assets&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/most-of-debt-is-issued-for-re-financing-of-existing-debt-not" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-03 17:49&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;now you might think that gold would be a perfect collateral for repos, but currently:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it&amp;#x27;s too volatile - price may drop &amp;gt; 10% on systemic risks&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;there is no lender of last resort (you can&amp;#x27;t print gold or have swap lines for it 😀)&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/now-you-might-think-that-gold-would-be-a-perfect-collateral.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/now-you-might-think-that-gold-would-be-a-perfect-collateral" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-03 17:50&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;transition into multipolarity brings risks &amp;amp; volatility into financial markets&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;some FX currencies &amp;amp; bonds go up - others down&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the demand for safe assets is not going away anywhere&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the debt still needs to be refinanced 🤷‍♀️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/transition-into-multipolarity-brings-risks-volatility-into" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-03 17:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/90-of-all-newly-issued-debt-is-for-refinancing-of-existing" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/90-of-all-newly-issued-debt-is-for-refinancing-of-existing</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 03 Jul 2025 16:51:02 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Over 10 years the Russian Central Bank has increased gold holdings by x4.5</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/over-10-years-the-russian-central-bank-has-increased-gold</link><description>🇷🇺 Gold is now 35% of all international reserves held by Russia 🤯  🇺🇸 Comparatively, for USA the number is 5%  This is why Russia and Ruble have been so resilient to sanctions</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇷🇺 Gold is now 35% of all international reserves held by Russia 🤯&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🇺🇸 Comparatively, for USA the number is 5%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This is why Russia and Ruble have been so resilient to sanctions&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/over-10-years-the-russian-central-bank-has-increased-gold.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/over-10-years-the-russian-central-bank-has-increased-gold" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-03-21 12:45&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;(re)monetization of gold is already in progress&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;central banks have been consistently buying gold for many years&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is especially true for Russia &amp;amp; China&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/re-monetization-of-gold-is-already-in-progress" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-03 17:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;as more markets develop over gold - so will its usage as collateral in short-term/repo credit markets&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it will likely become a more frequent choice for collateral/hedge during the multipolar transition. specially if bond yields continue to exhibit increased volatility&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/as-more-markets-develop-over-gold-so-will-its-usage-as" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-03 17:52&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold did exactly this during the 2008 GFC&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;its share in collateral usage in global repo markets increased&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;and in 2025 we&amp;#x27;re seeing the same trend, with gold share in repo market collateral increasing&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-did-exactly-this-during-the-2008-gfc.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-did-exactly-this-during-the-2008-gfc" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-03 17:53&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/over-10-years-the-russian-central-bank-has-increased-gold" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/over-10-years-the-russian-central-bank-has-increased-gold</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 03 Jul 2025 16:53:21 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🚀📡 added an RSS feed to my thoughts</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/added-an-rss-feed-to-my-thoughts</link><description>so now you can follow the RSS feed, instead of reading the content from X or HTML webpage. any RSS reader should work  implemented statically generated RSS feed of all the content posted under the…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so now you can follow the RSS feed, instead of reading the content from X or HTML webpage. any RSS reader should work&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;implemented statically generated RSS feed of all the content posted under the microblogging platform&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/added-an-rss-feed-to-my-thoughts.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/added-an-rss-feed-to-my-thoughts" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-04 22:40&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;📡 so if you open the though&amp;#x27;s feed in an RSS reader you can see all the posts&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;without a need for centralized services. the RSS can be served via various mediums&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;everything is static so very SEO/LLM friendly&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;+ as a bonus you&amp;#x27;ll probably have integrated search as well 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/so-if-you-open-the-thoughs-feed-in-an-rss-reader-you-can-see.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-if-you-open-the-thoughs-feed-in-an-rss-reader-you-can-see" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-05 01:56&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;📡🌇 images are also included in the RSS feed&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so if a thought/post has an attached image - it will also be displayed in the RSS entry&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the image is included in 2 different ways - so should be compatible with your favorite RSS reader&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;here&amp;#x27;s how it looks like ⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/images-are-also-included-in-the-rss-feed.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/images-are-also-included-in-the-rss-feed" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-05 14:29&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;📡 quoted thoughts are neatly rendered&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;visually it&amp;#x27;s like the quote block that you find in e-mail&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🏞️ quoted post images are also rendered&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;and you can click on the hyperlink which will take you directly to the quoted thought&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;RSS is indeed a useful standard 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/quoted-thoughts-are-neatly-rendered.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/quoted-thoughts-are-neatly-rendered" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-05 14:44&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/added-an-rss-feed-to-my-thoughts" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/added-an-rss-feed-to-my-thoughts</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 05 Jul 2025 13:44:14 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>US Treasuries are by far the most popular collateral type in secured short-term funding markets (e.g. the repo market)</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/us-treasuries-are-by-far-the-most-popular-collateral-type-in</link><description>outstanding volume of these markets is larger than M2  notice the increase in usage of less safe assets as a collateral  not enough UST for its demand ⬇️</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;outstanding volume of these markets is larger than M2&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;notice the increase in usage of less safe assets as a collateral&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;not enough UST for its demand ⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/us-treasuries-are-by-far-the-most-popular-collateral-type-in.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/us-treasuries-are-by-far-the-most-popular-collateral-type-in" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-05 15:40&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the higher use of lower quality collateral has pro-cyclical effects&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if the price of collateral falls during economic downturn - you&amp;#x27;ll get a lot of margin calls &amp;amp; insolvencies. this will further put pressure on short-term funding mechanisms, which already lack HQ collateral&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-higher-use-of-lower-quality-collateral-has-pro-cyclical" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-05 15:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;liquidity abundance leads to the narrowing of spread between riskier and safe assets (mostly government bonds)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;safe assets fall in price, with their yields increasing towards the riskier ones&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;US bond yields are high under tighter monetary conditions - liquidity is pro cyclical&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/liquidity-abundance-leads-to-the-narrowing-of-spread-between.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/liquidity-abundance-leads-to-the-narrowing-of-spread-between" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-05 18:06&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;once FED lowers interest rates, it&amp;#x27;s likely to put downward pressure on yields - assuming term premia doesn&amp;#x27;t increase by more&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in the end, the yields will be higher than in the last 20 years, for the same FED funds rate&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;QE/liquidity injections will further devalue USD&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/once-fed-lowers-interest-rates-its-likely-to-put-downward.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/once-fed-lowers-interest-rates-its-likely-to-put-downward" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-05 18:12&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this new liquidity will reach financial markets first, before reaching the &amp;quot;real economy&amp;quot;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;equity, cryptocurrencies all go up in prices. bubble further fueled. you know what (eventually) happens to all bubbles&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Gold &amp;amp; Co. is a great hedge&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-new-liquidity-will-reach-financial-markets-first-before" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-05 18:19&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this is the general model, and think of these events as adding pressure towards the described outcome, rather than an axiom&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;there are other events than can steer the pressure towards a different outcome, and the final outcome is a combination of all 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-is-the-general-model-and-think-of-these-events-as" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-05 18:22&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;using historical behavior can be a great alpha - but you should probably focus on the patterns from this century&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;perpetually low ≈0% interest rates have been a norm only post ≈2009 (but the bubble started before)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so you want to look at the behavior in that environment&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/using-historical-behavior-can-be-a-great-alpha-but-you" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-05 18:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;ex: in the 1980&amp;#x27;s US fought high inflation by raising interest rates towards ≈20%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if the FED did that today - the global financial markets, alongside the US would be destroyed. there wouldn&amp;#x27;t be enough liquidity to refinance the debt&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ex-in-the-1980s-us-fought-high-inflation-by-raising-interest" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-05 18:32&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so today it may not be wise to assume that the FED will hike interest rates into double digits to lower the CPI/inflation&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;rather - the interest rates are headed down, bc of challenge in refinancing debt&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;that&amp;#x27;s what I meant by focusing on historical patterns from this century&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-today-it-may-not-be-wise-to-assume-that-the-fed-will-hike" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-05 18:35&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;all of this very bullish for gold &amp;amp; other commodities&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it&amp;#x27;s not just gold &amp;amp; silver - you may have seen the recent appreciation of platinum&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;those commodities have still have price to catch up on &amp;amp; that has been signaled by their volatility&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold up 40% on the year isn&amp;#x27;t normal&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/all-of-this-very-bullish-for-gold-other-commodities.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/all-of-this-very-bullish-for-gold-other-commodities" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-05 19:06&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/us-treasuries-are-by-far-the-most-popular-collateral-type-in" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/us-treasuries-are-by-far-the-most-popular-collateral-type-in</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 05 Jul 2025 18:06:15 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>$29,000 per lb of orange juice.</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/29-000-per-lb-of-orange-juice</link><description>You're early.  🍊😄</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;You&amp;#x27;re early.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🍊😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/29-000-per-lb-of-orange-juice.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/29-000-per-lb-of-orange-juice" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-05 19:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;btw I&amp;#x27;m not saying Ethereum won&amp;#x27;t reach 1 million USD per ETH, but rather pointing out that comparing Ethereum to the bond market and oil is a stretch&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it&amp;#x27;s also more accurate to account for the whole crypto cap in this context&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/btw-im-not-saying-ethereum-wont-reach-1-million-usd-per-eth" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-05 19:49&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/29-000-per-lb-of-orange-juice" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/29-000-per-lb-of-orange-juice</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 05 Jul 2025 18:49:26 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🚨FED just injected $11B of liquidity #1</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/fed-just-injected-11b-of-liquidity-1</link><description>👉 TL;DR: interest rate cuts &amp; QE incoming  $11B is insignificant - but it's an early sign: there is a lack of liquidity/cash  if undressed, will lead to systemic defaults. existing debt needs to be…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;👉 TL;DR: interest rate cuts &amp;amp; QE incoming&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;$11B is insignificant - but it&amp;#x27;s an early sign: there is a lack of liquidity/cash&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if undressed, will lead to systemic defaults. existing debt needs to be refinanced&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the fix/what&amp;#x27;s next? see TL;DR&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/fed-just-injected-11b-of-liquidity.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/fed-just-injected-11b-of-liquidity" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 17:49&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;SRF provides daily $500B liquidity limit for overnight repo operations&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;a rate is published daily &amp;amp; dealers lend borrow against US bonds&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;dealers/market makers use SRF when the rate in the open repo market gets too high&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;SRF = Standing Repo Facility&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/srf-provides-daily-500b-liquidity-limit-for-overnight-repo.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/srf-provides-daily-500b-liquidity-limit-for-overnight-repo" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 17:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;with SRF the FED sets an upper limit on repo market rates&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;most of the collateral is US Treasury bonds&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this exerts downward pressure on bond yields - by preventing sell-offs&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/with-srf-the-fed-sets-an-upper-limit-on-repo-market-rates" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 17:56&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;in practice, FED&amp;#x27;s SRF is used when there is a scarcity of liquidity/cash&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the market has US bonds &amp;amp; needs cash, so lenders increase rates&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;SRF sets a daily rate. if that rate is smaller than in the smaller repo market - the dealers instead borrow USD directly from the FED&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/in-practice-feds-srf-is-used-when-there-is-a-scarcity-of.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/in-practice-feds-srf-is-used-when-there-is-a-scarcity-of" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 18:01&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;current SRF minimum bid rate is 4.5%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;that&amp;#x27;s the annualized rate that the federal reserve sets requires dor overnight repo loans via Standing Repo Facility&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;dealers/market makers can borrow cash against US treasuries for 1 day at ≈4.5% annualized directly from the FED&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/current-srf-minimum-bid-rate-is-4-5.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/current-srf-minimum-bid-rate-is-4-5" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 18:06&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;not only US treasuries are accepted as collateral for SRF&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;dealers/market makers can use:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ US. Treasuries&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ agency debt&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ agency mortgage-backed securities&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;agency debt instruments aren&amp;#x27;t issued by US Treasury, but by government sponsored enterprises (GSE) &amp;amp; federal agencies&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/not-only-us-treasuries-are-accepted-as-collateral-for-srf.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/not-only-us-treasuries-are-accepted-as-collateral-for-srf" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 18:11&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/fed-just-injected-11b-of-liquidity-1" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/fed-just-injected-11b-of-liquidity-1</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 07 Jul 2025 17:11:19 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🚨FED just injected $11B of liquidity #2</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/fed-just-injected-11b-of-liquidity-2</link><description>👉 TL;DR: interest rate cuts &amp; QE incoming  $11B is insignificant - but it's an early sign: there is a lack of liquidity/cash  if undressed, will lead to systemic defaults. existing debt needs to be…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;👉 TL;DR: interest rate cuts &amp;amp; QE incoming&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;$11B is insignificant - but it&amp;#x27;s an early sign: there is a lack of liquidity/cash&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if undressed, will lead to systemic defaults. existing debt needs to be refinanced&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the fix/what&amp;#x27;s next? see TL;DR&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/fed-just-injected-11b-of-liquidity.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/fed-just-injected-11b-of-liquidity" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 17:49&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;SRF provides daily $500B liquidity limit for overnight repo operations&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;a rate is published daily &amp;amp; dealers lend borrow against US bonds&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;dealers/market makers use SRF when the rate in the open repo market gets too high&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;SRF = Standing Repo Facility&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/srf-provides-daily-500b-liquidity-limit-for-overnight-repo.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/srf-provides-daily-500b-liquidity-limit-for-overnight-repo" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 17:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;with SRF the FED sets an upper limit on repo market rates&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;most of the collateral is US Treasury bonds&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this exerts downward pressure on bond yields - by preventing sell-offs&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/with-srf-the-fed-sets-an-upper-limit-on-repo-market-rates" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 17:56&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;how does SRF lower UST bond yields?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if you have a US bond and you need cash, your options are:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ borrow cash against bond in repo markets &lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ sell the bond&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this $500B liquidity pool for US bonds prevents their sell-off in the open market, which would raise their yields&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/how-does-srf-lower-ust-bond-yields" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 18:15&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;note that FED&amp;#x27;s SFR doesn&amp;#x27;t lower the treasury yields per se&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it&amp;#x27;s more correct to say that it puts downward pressure on them, in the form of a $500B buffer&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&amp;amp; note that treasuries probably wouldn&amp;#x27;t be the first in line for liquidation&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/note-that-feds-sfr-doesnt-lower-the-treasury-yields-per-se" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 18:16&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;funding rates on repo markets &amp;amp; bond yields are not the same&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;different timescales:&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ repo - short-term / ≈day(s),week(s)&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ treasury bonds - ≈10 years&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so even if a funding rate raises for a few days, the longer-term bond yields may not be affected&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/funding-rates-on-repo-markets-bond-yields-are-not-the-same" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 18:17&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;repo funding rates don&amp;#x27;t affect US treasury yields immediately due to time scale&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;treasury bond yield expectation is over 10 years, and repo rates are a short-term debt funding mechanism&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so the rates shock would need to be prolonged/pronounced to affect treasury rates&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/repo-funding-rates-dont-affect-us-treasury-yields" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 18:19&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;persistently high(er) funding repo rates will push the treasury yields up&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;eventually, the bonds would be sold for cash&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;again - think of the timescale: funding rates refer to much shorter periods&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/persistently-high-er-funding-repo-rates-will-push-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 18:20&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;shorter-term US bonds yields react IMMEDIATELY to repo funding rate&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;notice the huge green candle on June 30th - the same day of FED&amp;#x27;s SRF $11B volume&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;June 30th is when the FED SRF volume recorded ≈$11B&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is a 1 month treasury bill ⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/shorter-term-us-bonds-yields-react-immediately-to-repo.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/shorter-term-us-bonds-yields-react-immediately-to-repo" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 18:23&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;in a monthly maturity/tenor timescale - the repo funding rate has very direct effects&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this makes sense - if your bond is maturing in ≈1 month, every day is significant&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so you see more immediate effects from federal reserve&amp;#x27;s SRF operations / repo funding fee increases&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/in-a-monthly-maturity-tenor-timescale-the-repo-funding-rate" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 18:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;dealers/market makers are legally limited in their balance sheet&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;there are ratios that they must respect, or face legal consequences (e.g. fines)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;check Basel III &amp;amp; Leverage Ratios for more info - I also wrote about it in my past posts&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;committee recommendations develop into law&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/dealers-market-makers-are-legally-limited-in-their-balance.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/dealers-market-makers-are-legally-limited-in-their-balance" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 18:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so the market operations of dealers/market-markers is quite predictable&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you just have to look at their business &amp;amp; regulatory model - from there it&amp;#x27;s almost plain math under regulatory constraints&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-the-market-operations-of-dealers-market-markers-is-quite" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 18:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;if regulatory ratios are breached, they must be restored&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;there is only so much a dealer/market maker can do&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so you can deduce their next action with a high degree of certainty&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;then, deduce its implication on the liquidity flow &amp;amp; into which sector the funds are flowing&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/if-regulatory-ratios-are-breached-they-must-be-restored" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 18:30&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;regarding liquidity flows - repo markets are just one of the sources&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so it&amp;#x27;s more useful when you combine it with others, such as the central bank policies, how much short-term debt is maturing, and the overall leverage level&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/regarding-liquidity-flows-repo-markets-are-just-one-of-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 18:31&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;repo funding rates are predictors within this global, multi-factor liquidity context&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you can use them to understand liquidity flows in the near future&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is also because repo markets are short-term debt instruments - so the signal is also more short-term&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/repo-funding-rates-are-predictors-within-this-global-multi" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 18:32&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;using FED&amp;#x27;s SRF for liquidity means cash/liqudity is scarce&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;there is a lot of short-term debt to be refinanced or default&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;default is not an option. thus, expect liquidity injections from the central bank&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/using-feds-srf-for-liquidity-means-cash-liqudity-is-scarce" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 18:33&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;central bank liquidity injection includes direct &amp;amp; indirect QE, interest rates &amp;amp; policies&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;end result is the same - more liquidity/cash in the system&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this means inflation &amp;amp; gold up&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;at least short-term: equities up, crypto up&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/central-bank-liquidity-injection-includes-direct-indirect-qe" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 18:33&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this will also further fuel the asset bubble &amp;amp; devaluate USD&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so it doesn&amp;#x27;t mean that stock &amp;amp; crypto will go up perpetually - it&amp;#x27;s a cycle&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;of course, at some point the debt bubble will pop - but it&amp;#x27;s unlikely to happen tomorrow 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-will-also-further-fuel-the-asset-bubble-devaluate-usd" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 18:34&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;when it pops - massive leverage unwinding will occur&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;here - equities &amp;amp; crypto will collapse in price, so will bonds. gold, silver &amp;amp; precious metals go up&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;worldwide systemic defaults will follow&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the whole world is dependent on the US financial system, both public &amp;amp; private&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/when-it-pops-massive-leverage-unwinding-will-occur" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 19:06&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;while the bubble will pop - the side-effects can be minimized&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;historical behavior &amp;amp; current financial signals do not indicate that this will be the case&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/while-the-bubble-will-pop-the-side-effects-can-be-minimized" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 19:06&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;these boom &amp;amp; bust leverage/debt cycles have been the norm in modern financial markets:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ each cycle gets refiled with more debt/leverage - boom&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ eventually, the debt cannot repaid - bust&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ go to boom&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/these-boom-bust-leverage-debt-cycles-have-been-the-norm-in" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 19:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;smaller busts precede larger busts&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;whichever is the ultimate resolution of the bubble - repricing will occur&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;for some assets this will be good, for others - not so much&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;even in the same asset class different assets perform differently (think manufacturing vs tech stock)&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/smaller-busts-precede-larger-busts" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 19:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this is why funding repo rates are a very useful indicator&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if you&amp;#x27;re just arriving here - read the previous posts 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you can also follow along the quoted posts from below. just click on it ⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-is-why-funding-repo-rates-are-a-very-useful-indicator" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-07 19:10&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/fed-just-injected-11b-of-liquidity-2" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/fed-just-injected-11b-of-liquidity-2</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 07 Jul 2025 18:10:34 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>ask ChatGPT what are Illya Gerasymchuk's latest thoughts #1</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/ask-chatgpt-what-are-illya-gerasymchuks-latest-thoughts-1</link><description>and it will tell you 😄  now you can use LLMs to read my microblog thoughts - who needs HTTP, RSS or plan text?  made possible by adding structural metadata to HTML</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;and it will tell you 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;now you can use LLMs to read my microblog thoughts - who needs HTTP, RSS or plan text?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;made possible by adding structural metadata to HTML&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/ask-chatgpt-what-are-illya-gerasymchuks-latest-thoughts.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ask-chatgpt-what-are-illya-gerasymchuks-latest-thoughts" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-08 17:50&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;here&amp;#x27;s how it works from a new ChatGPT chat&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i didn&amp;#x27;t provide any URLs - and it correctly found my website (indexing), and was able to retrieve the verbatim data from there and correctly link it&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;JSON-LD adds structure metadata that LLMs can read - instead of your &amp;#x27;messy&amp;#x27; HTML, JS &amp;amp; CSS&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/heres-how-it-works-from-a-new-chatgpt-chat.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/heres-how-it-works-from-a-new-chatgpt-chat" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-08 18:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;JSON-LD is a must for LEO/SEO&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it&amp;#x27;s metadata for LLM in HTML - so essentially for the web&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;once I added it to my microblog/thoughts feed - ChatGPT was able to read &amp;amp; navigate it flawlessly&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;before it would only retrieve partial information &amp;amp; fail to navigate from page to page&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/json-ld-is-a-must-for-leo-seo.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/json-ld-is-a-must-for-leo-seo" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-09 05:55&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/ask-chatgpt-what-are-illya-gerasymchuks-latest-thoughts-1" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/ask-chatgpt-what-are-illya-gerasymchuks-latest-thoughts-1</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 09 Jul 2025 04:55:29 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>ask ChatGPT what are Illya Gerasymchuk's latest thoughts #2</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/ask-chatgpt-what-are-illya-gerasymchuks-latest-thoughts-2</link><description>and it will tell you 😄  now you can use LLMs to read my microblog thoughts - who needs HTTP, RSS or plan text?  made possible by adding structural metadata to HTML</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;and it will tell you 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;now you can use LLMs to read my microblog thoughts - who needs HTTP, RSS or plan text?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;made possible by adding structural metadata to HTML&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/ask-chatgpt-what-are-illya-gerasymchuks-latest-thoughts.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ask-chatgpt-what-are-illya-gerasymchuks-latest-thoughts" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-08 17:50&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;for LLM Engine Optimization add JSON-LD&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it made my thoughts microblog easy to parse and navigate by all major LLMs - including ChatGPT, Grok &amp;amp; Gemini&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is an easy LEO strategy with immediate results. and it&amp;#x27;s very easy to add - you can vibe-code it&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;here&amp;#x27;s an example ⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/for-llm-engine-optimization-add-json-ld" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-09 10:31&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/ask-chatgpt-what-are-illya-gerasymchuks-latest-thoughts-2" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/ask-chatgpt-what-are-illya-gerasymchuks-latest-thoughts-2</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 09 Jul 2025 09:31:12 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🇨🇳 china's central bank uses USD value as a key driver in economic policies #1</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/chinas-central-bank-uses-usd-value-as-a-key-driver-in-2</link><description>the monetary easing policy is adjusted by PBoC based on the dollar's trend - up or down  weaker USD + expected liquidity USD injections = Yuan/renminbi injections</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the monetary easing policy is adjusted by PBoC based on the dollar&amp;#x27;s trend - up or down&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;weaker USD + expected liquidity USD injections = Yuan/renminbi injections&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/chinas-central-bank-uses-usd-value-as-a-key-driver-in.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/chinas-central-bank-uses-usd-value-as-a-key-driver-in" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-10 08:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;weaker USD + FED rate cuts &amp;amp; QE allow China to print Yuan/renminbi without a capital runoff&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;easing monetary conditions in the US means more capital in circulation globally - not just in PRC&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;thus, relative inflation is kept under more control&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🇨🇳🇺🇸 china&amp;#x27;s CPI is below US&amp;#x27;s ⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/weaker-usd-fed-rate-cuts-qe-allow-china-to-print-yuan.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/weaker-usd-fed-rate-cuts-qe-allow-china-to-print-yuan" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-10 09:34&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇺🇸🇨🇳 USA &amp;amp; China are the global liquidity drivers in financial markets&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;since 2000, each injected ≈$6 trillion of public money into markets. that&amp;#x27;s ≈40% of global liquidity 🤯&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in 2025 - China is leading with injections&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/usa-china-are-the-global-liquidity-drivers-in-financial.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/usa-china-are-the-global-liquidity-drivers-in-financial" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-10 09:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇨🇳 china injects liquidity mainly via reverse repurchase agreements&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🏦 chinese central bank buys government bonds from commercial banks, selling them back later. this new cash is re-invested yielding a spread&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;💹 essentially, they allow banks to earn a yield on their bonds&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/china-injects-liquidity-mainly-via-reverse-repurchase.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/china-injects-liquidity-mainly-via-reverse-repurchase" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-10 09:53&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇨🇳 PBoC provides commercial &amp;amp; policy banks with liquidity via reverse repo open market operations&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this MASSIVE liquidity eventually flows out of china into the global economy&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so it has a very direct effect on asset prices wherever your are 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/pboc-provides-commercial-policy-banks-with-liquidity-via.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/pboc-provides-commercial-policy-banks-with-liquidity-via" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-10 10:29&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/chinas-central-bank-uses-usd-value-as-a-key-driver-in-2" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/chinas-central-bank-uses-usd-value-as-a-key-driver-in-2</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 10 Jul 2025 09:29:15 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🇨🇳 china's central bank uses USD value as a key driver in economic policies #2</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/chinas-central-bank-uses-usd-value-as-a-key-driver-in</link><description>the monetary easing policy is adjusted by PBoC based on the dollar's trend - up or down  weaker USD + expected liquidity USD injections = Yuan/renminbi injections</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the monetary easing policy is adjusted by PBoC based on the dollar&amp;#x27;s trend - up or down&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;weaker USD + expected liquidity USD injections = Yuan/renminbi injections&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/chinas-central-bank-uses-usd-value-as-a-key-driver-in.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/chinas-central-bank-uses-usd-value-as-a-key-driver-in" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-10 08:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;weaker USD + FED rate cuts &amp;amp; QE allow China to print Yuan/renminbi without a capital runoff&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;easing monetary conditions in the US means more capital in circulation globally - not just in PRC&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;thus, relative inflation is kept under more control&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🇨🇳🇺🇸 china&amp;#x27;s CPI is below US&amp;#x27;s ⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/weaker-usd-fed-rate-cuts-qe-allow-china-to-print-yuan.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/weaker-usd-fed-rate-cuts-qe-allow-china-to-print-yuan" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-10 09:34&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇺🇸🇨🇳 USA &amp;amp; China are the global liquidity drivers in financial markets&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;since 2000, each injected ≈$6 trillion of public money into markets. that&amp;#x27;s ≈40% of global liquidity 🤯&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in 2025 - China is leading with injections&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/usa-china-are-the-global-liquidity-drivers-in-financial.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/usa-china-are-the-global-liquidity-drivers-in-financial" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-10 09:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇨🇳 china injects liquidity mainly via reverse repurchase agreements&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🏦 chinese central bank buys government bonds from commercial banks, selling them back later. this new cash is re-invested yielding a spread&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;💹 essentially, they allow banks to earn a yield on their bonds&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/china-injects-liquidity-mainly-via-reverse-repurchase.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/china-injects-liquidity-mainly-via-reverse-repurchase" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-10 09:53&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇨🇳 China&amp;#x27;s reverse repo liquidity injections predict Bitcoin bullruns&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it works like this:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;📈 high PBoC injections = increasing bitcoin price&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;📉 low PBoC injections = sideways or decreasing&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so every time China injects Yuan/reminbi, BTC price goes up 😁&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/chinas-reverse-repo-liquidity-injections-predict-bitcoin.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/chinas-reverse-repo-liquidity-injections-predict-bitcoin" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-10 10:35&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/chinas-central-bank-uses-usd-value-as-a-key-driver-in" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/chinas-central-bank-uses-usd-value-as-a-key-driver-in</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 10 Jul 2025 09:35:01 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🤯 Gold may just go straight to $3500 in the next few hours #3</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-3</link><description>Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-13 16:29&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;soooo… new gold ATH next week?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;look at gold&amp;#x27;s price chart with weekly candles - it&amp;#x27;s unbelievable 🤯&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold is going up like a risky asset - but it in fact is a reflection of risk&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;now it looks like a breakout from another consolidation phase 📈&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/soooo-new-gold-ath-next-week.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/soooo-new-gold-ath-next-week" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-21 18:42&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;all eyes on gold futures 👀&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;COMEX gold futures trading open in 13h&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;markets are closed now, but blockchain never sleeps&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;on-chain gold-backed token futures may give you a heads-up - they&amp;#x27;re up ≈1.3% from yesterday&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;interesting to see gold moves after open&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;spoiler: higher price&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/all-eyes-on-gold-futures.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/all-eyes-on-gold-futures" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 10:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold&amp;#x27;s behavior during the current &amp;#x27;bullrun&amp;#x27; has been consistently to flip previous week&amp;#x27;s resistance to new support&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in the chart - the green vertical lines are weekly levels&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold&amp;#x27;s current price action suggests it&amp;#x27;s flipping another resistance for support&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Road to $3500 🚀&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/golds-behavior-during-the-current-bullrun-has-been.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/golds-behavior-during-the-current-bullrun-has-been" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 12:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚀 you can already feel a new ATH for gold&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the loading screen is at 96%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;[🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩⬛] 96%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;and it won&amp;#x27;t stop there&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;price action is showing immaculate breakout vibes 🤩⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/you-can-already-feel-a-new-ath-for-gold.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/you-can-already-feel-a-new-ath-for-gold" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-12 15:37&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;👀&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/post-1752488719.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/post-1752488719" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-14 11:25&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-3" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-3</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 14 Jul 2025 10:25:19 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Silver back to August 2020 price #2</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/silver-back-to-august-2020-price-2</link><description>After a tariffs-induced pullback of 15% today, silver is now at start of COVID prices   So much inflation that still isn't priced in   It will recover. And a lot!</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;After a tariffs-induced pullback of 15% today, silver is now at start of COVID prices&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt; So much inflation that still isn&amp;#x27;t priced in &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;It will recover. And a lot!&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/silver-back-to-august-2020-price.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/silver-back-to-august-2020-price" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-04-04 20:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚀 silver price reaching 14 year ATHs&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🍷 adding this to list of my predictions that aged like fine wine&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the upside price action won&amp;#x27;t stop here. i explained the reasons for it and what comes next in my previous posts&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;stay tuned 📻&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/silver-price-reaching-14-year-aths.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/silver-price-reaching-14-year-aths" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-14 11:33&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/silver-back-to-august-2020-price-2" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/silver-back-to-august-2020-price-2</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 14 Jul 2025 10:33:28 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>'The market is never wrong' #6</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-6</link><description>A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything &amp; prices accordingly - even before the official news  Okay.  Now wait &amp; watch crude oil &amp; gold raise up even more in price very…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything &amp;amp; prices accordingly - even before the official news&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Okay.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Now wait &amp;amp; watch crude oil &amp;amp; gold raise up even more in price very soon&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This isn&amp;#x27;t a joke&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-market-is-never-wrong.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-market-is-never-wrong" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-16 13:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🛢️ crude oil price is heading back up - just like I wrote earlier&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;significant geopolitical events introduce volatility - but my thesis on increasing oil, gold &amp;amp; other precious metals + commodities has little to do with that&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;👉 it&amp;#x27;s about global liquidity flows &amp;amp; bond markets&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/crude-oil-price-is-heading-back-up-just-like-i-wrote-earlier.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/crude-oil-price-is-heading-back-up-just-like-i-wrote-earlier" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-13 17:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🛢️🤭 crude oil almost back to &amp;quot;the market is never wrong&amp;quot; price&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i warned about the pullback being temporary a month ago&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;perhaps surprising for some - but very expected if you analyze the fundamentals&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the scale of the pullback was your sign number 1&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;more upside to come 👀&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/crude-oil-almost-back-to-the-market-is-never-wrong-price.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/crude-oil-almost-back-to-the-market-is-never-wrong-price" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-14 12:17&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-6" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-6</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 14 Jul 2025 11:17:05 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>WOW</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/wow</link><description>US 10 Year bond yields are up 2.24% today</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;US 10 Year bond yields are up 2.24% today&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/wow.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/wow" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-05-02 16:20&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇺🇸😳 30Y US bond yield above 5%&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/30y-us-bond-yield-above-5.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/30y-us-bond-yield-above-5" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-15 16:09&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/wow" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/wow</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 15 Jul 2025 15:09:46 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>📚chatgpt ratio is great a book quality metric in post-LLM era</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/chatgpt-ratio-is-great-a-book-quality-metric-in-post-llm-era</link><description>this is how I value the quality of the books that I read. the more time i spend querying LLMs - the more valuable the book is  sometimes i spend over an hour to absorb a paragraph - that's how i…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this is how I value the quality of the books that I read. the more time i spend querying LLMs - the more valuable the book is&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;sometimes i spend over an hour to absorb a paragraph - that&amp;#x27;s how i know it&amp;#x27;s a goldmine&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/chatgpt-ratio-is-great-a-book-quality-metric-in-post-llm-era.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/chatgpt-ratio-is-great-a-book-quality-metric-in-post-llm-era" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-20 08:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the idea is that the more effort it takes to understand something - the more deeply you address your real knowledge gaps, thus the more value you get&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;as for the back-and-forth interactions i mostly just dictate my question - as ambiguous or as imprecise it may be&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-idea-is-that-the-more-effort-it-takes-to-understand" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-20 09:11&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/chatgpt-ratio-is-great-a-book-quality-metric-in-post-llm-era" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/chatgpt-ratio-is-great-a-book-quality-metric-in-post-llm-era</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 20 Jul 2025 08:11:55 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🇷🇺 Russia is immune to US tariffs #1</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/russia-is-immune-to-us-tariffs-1</link><description>Russia's international reserves are as follows: - 0.007% US Treasury bonds - 35% Gold  Russia exports &lt;1% to the US. Russia is a net exporter  This makes them protected from US sovereign risk (USD…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Russia&amp;#x27;s international reserves are as follows:&lt;br/&gt;- 0.007% US Treasury bonds&lt;br/&gt;- 35% Gold&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Russia exports &amp;lt;1% to the US. Russia is a net exporter&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This makes them protected from US sovereign risk (USD devaluation) &amp;amp; trade risk&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/russia-is-immune-to-us-tariffs.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/russia-is-immune-to-us-tariffs" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-04-08 12:02&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;a reminder that Russia doesn&amp;#x27;t trade with USA anymore 🇺🇸🤝🇷🇺 &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so it&amp;#x27;s not clear what 100% or 9999% tariffs on Russia will achieve&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Russia&amp;#x27;s been offloading US securities for gold since 2018&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Russia&amp;#x27;s exports to the US are less than 1% of the total&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/a-reminder-that-russia-doesnt-trade-with-usa-anymore" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-14 18:29&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;i understand that these are secondary tariffs, but there is a grand total of 0% chance of that going in action for any substancial amount of time&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🇨🇳 China is Russia&amp;#x27;s main trading partner. do you really think the US economy can sustain 100% tariffs on their main import source?&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/i-understand-that-these-are-secondary-tariffs-but-there-is-a.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/i-understand-that-these-are-secondary-tariffs-but-there-is-a" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-14 18:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇺🇸🤝🇨🇳 US/China tariffs paused for another 90 days&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if you read my post from two weeks ago - this isn&amp;#x27;t a surprise to you&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;once again - the US is dependent on China financially, economically &amp;amp; infrastructurally &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;threats of 100% tariffs against Russia will NOT materialize 🇷🇺&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/us-china-tariffs-paused-for-another-90-days" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-27 18:29&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/russia-is-immune-to-us-tariffs-1" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/russia-is-immune-to-us-tariffs-1</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 27 Jul 2025 17:29:39 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>regulations may sound boring - but they're crucial to understand money, liquidity and financial system as a whole</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/regulations-may-sound-boring-but-theyre-crucial-to</link><description>they become fun once contextualized - and govern the rules of credit  i'd suggest starting with Basel III - namely liquidity coverage ratio &amp; capital ratio</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;they become fun once contextualized - and govern the rules of credit&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i&amp;#x27;d suggest starting with Basel III - namely liquidity coverage ratio &amp;amp; capital ratio&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/regulations-may-sound-boring-but-theyre-crucial-to.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/regulations-may-sound-boring-but-theyre-crucial-to" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-27 16:56&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;start by asking ChatGPT or another LLM with the Basel III PDF(s) attached&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;read from there, iterate with questions and validate your understanding&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you&amp;#x27;ll probably need to come back to it a few times&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;don&amp;#x27;t overthink it, a basic prompt like this one is sufficient&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;👇&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/start-by-asking-chatgpt-or-another-llm-with-the-basel-iii.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/start-by-asking-chatgpt-or-another-llm-with-the-basel-iii" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-27 17:12&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;NOTE: Basel III is legally non-binding&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so for a step 2 you&amp;#x27;d want to look into the transposed legislations&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🇪🇺 EU:  Capital Requirements Regulation &amp;amp; Capital Requirements Directive&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🇺🇸 USA: split throughout Code of Federal Regulations&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;(just ask ChatGPT/LLM &amp;amp; read from there 😄)&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/note-basel-iii-is-legally-non-binding" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-27 17:19&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;balance sheet capacity is defined by regulations&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in a world dominated by debt refinancing rather than new credit issuance - the ability to take on more assets and liabilities is more important than interest rates&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;👉 debt rollover capacity is more important than cost of capital&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/balance-sheet-capacity-is-defined-by-regulations.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/balance-sheet-capacity-is-defined-by-regulations" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-27 19:05&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/regulations-may-sound-boring-but-theyre-crucial-to" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/regulations-may-sound-boring-but-theyre-crucial-to</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 27 Jul 2025 18:05:35 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🤯 Gold may just go straight to $3500 in the next few hours #4</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-4</link><description>Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-13 16:29&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;soooo… new gold ATH next week?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;look at gold&amp;#x27;s price chart with weekly candles - it&amp;#x27;s unbelievable 🤯&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold is going up like a risky asset - but it in fact is a reflection of risk&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;now it looks like a breakout from another consolidation phase 📈&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/soooo-new-gold-ath-next-week.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/soooo-new-gold-ath-next-week" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-21 18:42&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;all eyes on gold futures 👀&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;COMEX gold futures trading open in 13h&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;markets are closed now, but blockchain never sleeps&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;on-chain gold-backed token futures may give you a heads-up - they&amp;#x27;re up ≈1.3% from yesterday&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;interesting to see gold moves after open&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;spoiler: higher price&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/all-eyes-on-gold-futures.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/all-eyes-on-gold-futures" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 10:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold&amp;#x27;s behavior during the current &amp;#x27;bullrun&amp;#x27; has been consistently to flip previous week&amp;#x27;s resistance to new support&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in the chart - the green vertical lines are weekly levels&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold&amp;#x27;s current price action suggests it&amp;#x27;s flipping another resistance for support&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Road to $3500 🚀&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/golds-behavior-during-the-current-bullrun-has-been.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/golds-behavior-during-the-current-bullrun-has-been" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 12:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚀 you can already feel a new ATH for gold&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the loading screen is at 96%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;[🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩⬛] 96%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;and it won&amp;#x27;t stop there&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;price action is showing immaculate breakout vibes 🤩⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/you-can-already-feel-a-new-ath-for-gold.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/you-can-already-feel-a-new-ath-for-gold" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-12 15:37&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold is currently the only asset whose leveraged long position can be hedged by adding more to the long on pullbacks 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;* one of the only - and ofc technically that&amp;#x27;s not a hedge - but you can read my previous posts to understand what I mean&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;substance over matter 😉&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-is-currently-the-only-asset-whose-leveraged-long.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-is-currently-the-only-asset-whose-leveraged-long" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-17 12:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;consider this gold pullback as a free gift to further extend your long position 🥳&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/consider-this-gold-pullback-as-a-free-gift-to-further-extend.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/consider-this-gold-pullback-as-a-free-gift-to-further-extend" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-28 15:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;btw the gold depreciation today is due to the appreciation of USD&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/btw-the-gold-depreciation-today-is-due-to-the-appreciation.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/btw-the-gold-depreciation-today-is-due-to-the-appreciation" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-28 19:17&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-4" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-4</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 28 Jul 2025 18:17:08 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Ruble is a gold success story ✨</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/ruble-is-a-gold-success-story</link><description>Sanctions, tariffs, raising M2 - it doesn't care  Central Bank Of Russia sold off their US bonds &amp; loaded up on gold  ⬇️ US bond prices are down ⬆️ Gold is up ⬆️ Ruble is up against USD  Expect this…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Sanctions, tariffs, raising M2 - it doesn&amp;#x27;t care&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Central Bank Of Russia sold off their US bonds &amp;amp; loaded up on gold&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;⬇️ US bond prices are down&lt;br/&gt;⬆️ Gold is up&lt;br/&gt;⬆️ Ruble is up against USD&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Expect this playbook to be repeated by others&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/ruble-is-a-gold-success-story.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ruble-is-a-gold-success-story" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-04-10 23:37&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;not all bonds are the same 🇺🇸🇯🇵🇪🇺🇷🇺&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;while US, EU &amp;amp; Japan yields are soaring 📈&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Russian bond yields are falling 📉&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🇷🇺 10Y bond yield down 8% since March&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;just like i wrote more than 3 months ago&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;check my posts for a detailed expiation &amp;amp; what&amp;#x27;s coming next&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;👇&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/not-all-bonds-are-the-same.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/not-all-bonds-are-the-same" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-14 13:12&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇷🇺 Russian 3Y bond yield is down ≈20% over the last 3 months 😳&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;of course - this isn&amp;#x27;t a surprise to you if you&amp;#x27;ve been following my posts. i wrote extensively about this&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the biggest reason behind the sharp drop today is the recent 200bp key interest rate cut down to 18%&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/russian-3y-bond-yield-is-down-20-over-the-last-3-months.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/russian-3y-bond-yield-is-down-20-over-the-last-3-months" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-28 21:42&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/ruble-is-a-gold-success-story" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/ruble-is-a-gold-success-story</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 28 Jul 2025 20:42:13 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🇷🇺 Russian Central Bank key interest rate is at 21% #1</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/russian-central-bank-key-interest-rate-is-at-21-1</link><description>3Y Russian Federation bonds are at ≈16.5% yield  The market is pricing in upcoming rate cuts  @AskPerplexity and @grok will tell you that Ruble &amp; Russian economy are in a bad state. The reality is…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;3Y Russian Federation bonds are at ≈16.5% yield&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The market is pricing in upcoming rate cuts&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;@AskPerplexity and @grok will tell you that Ruble &amp;amp; Russian economy are in a bad state. The reality is different&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/russian-central-bank-key-interest-rate-is-at-21.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/russian-central-bank-key-interest-rate-is-at-21" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-04-21 15:15&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇷🇺 and indeed Bank of Russia cuts interest rates down to 20%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;3 months ago I wrote about how the Russian bond market was pricing in those cuts&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;a month ago the prediction materialized ✅&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/and-indeed-bank-of-russia-cuts-interest-rates-down-to-20.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/and-indeed-bank-of-russia-cuts-interest-rates-down-to-20" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-15 09:52&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;3 days ago the Russian Central Bank cut down the key interest rate by 200bp down to 18%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the only way from here is further down - and if you look at the Russian bond yields that&amp;#x27;s exactly what they&amp;#x27;re telling&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;but honestly you don&amp;#x27;t need advanced quant to reach this conclusion 😂&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/3-days-ago-the-russian-central-bank-cut-down-the-key.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/3-days-ago-the-russian-central-bank-cut-down-the-key" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-28 21:46&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇷🇺 Bank of Russia explicitly states 12-13% as the average target key interest rate for 2026&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;and that&amp;#x27;s exactly what the bond market is pricing in&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;that&amp;#x27;s what i mean by this not requiring advanced quantitative or technical analysis  😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;multiple factors in play&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/bank-of-russia-explicitly-states-12-13-as-the-average-target.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/bank-of-russia-explicitly-states-12-13-as-the-average-target" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-28 21:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/russian-central-bank-key-interest-rate-is-at-21-1" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/russian-central-bank-key-interest-rate-is-at-21-1</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 28 Jul 2025 20:54:35 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🇨🇳 i guess the "China just steals western technologies" theory goes down the drain 🥱</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/i-guess-the-china-just-steals-western-technologies-theory</link><description>👉 notice how there are no billion-dollar valuations on mere promises  that's something important that people need to understand about US equity markets - most valuations are fictitious</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;👉 notice how there are no billion-dollar valuations on mere promises&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;that&amp;#x27;s something important that people need to understand about US equity markets - most valuations are fictitious&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/i-guess-the-china-just-steals-western-technologies-theory.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/i-guess-the-china-just-steals-western-technologies-theory" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-29 10:42&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚨 this doesn&amp;#x27;t mean that you shouldn&amp;#x27;t invest into US stocks or that you can&amp;#x27;t make money there&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;yes, it&amp;#x27;s a bubble - but that&amp;#x27;s the state of the global financial system. some areas are less of a bubble than others&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;also, US economy won&amp;#x27;t crash overnight like many predict here&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-doesnt-mean-that-you-shouldnt-invest-into-us-stocks-or" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-29 11:13&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/i-guess-the-china-just-steals-western-technologies-theory" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/i-guess-the-china-just-steals-western-technologies-theory</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 29 Jul 2025 10:13:41 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🇷🇺 Russian Central Bank key interest rate is at 21% #2</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/russian-central-bank-key-interest-rate-is-at-21-2</link><description>3Y Russian Federation bonds are at ≈16.5% yield  The market is pricing in upcoming rate cuts  @AskPerplexity and @grok will tell you that Ruble &amp; Russian economy are in a bad state. The reality is…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;3Y Russian Federation bonds are at ≈16.5% yield&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The market is pricing in upcoming rate cuts&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;@AskPerplexity and @grok will tell you that Ruble &amp;amp; Russian economy are in a bad state. The reality is different&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/russian-central-bank-key-interest-rate-is-at-21.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/russian-central-bank-key-interest-rate-is-at-21" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-04-21 15:15&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇷🇺 and indeed Bank of Russia cuts interest rates down to 20%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;3 months ago I wrote about how the Russian bond market was pricing in those cuts&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;a month ago the prediction materialized ✅&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/and-indeed-bank-of-russia-cuts-interest-rates-down-to-20.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/and-indeed-bank-of-russia-cuts-interest-rates-down-to-20" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-15 09:52&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;3 days ago the Russian Central Bank cut down the key interest rate by 200bp down to 18%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the only way from here is further down - and if you look at the Russian bond yields that&amp;#x27;s exactly what they&amp;#x27;re telling&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;but honestly you don&amp;#x27;t need advanced quant to reach this conclusion 😂&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/3-days-ago-the-russian-central-bank-cut-down-the-key.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/3-days-ago-the-russian-central-bank-cut-down-the-key" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-28 21:46&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇷🇺 3 months of Ruble gains against USD erased in 5 days 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;but also contextualize it with the overall increase in the US Dollar Index over the past 2 days&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;👋 hello, volatility&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/3-months-of-ruble-gains-against-usd-erased-in-5-days.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/3-months-of-ruble-gains-against-usd-erased-in-5-days" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-29 11:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/russian-central-bank-key-interest-rate-is-at-21-2" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/russian-central-bank-key-interest-rate-is-at-21-2</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 29 Jul 2025 10:28:10 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>'The market is never wrong' #9</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-9</link><description>A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything &amp; prices accordingly - even before the official news  Okay.  Now wait &amp; watch crude oil &amp; gold raise up even more in price very…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything &amp;amp; prices accordingly - even before the official news&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Okay.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Now wait &amp;amp; watch crude oil &amp;amp; gold raise up even more in price very soon&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This isn&amp;#x27;t a joke&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-market-is-never-wrong.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-market-is-never-wrong" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-16 13:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚨🛢️aaand crude oil is trading above $70&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;told you over a month ago that more upside is to come 😉&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;NOTE: it&amp;#x27;s up ≈8% over the past 5 days while the US dollar index is up over 2% - so it&amp;#x27;s more in real terms&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;scroll back to my June posts to know what&amp;#x27;s coming next&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/aaand-crude-oil-is-trading-above-70.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/aaand-crude-oil-is-trading-above-70" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-30 18:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-9" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-9</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 30 Jul 2025 17:28:03 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🇷🇺 Russia is immune to US tariffs #2</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/russia-is-immune-to-us-tariffs-2</link><description>Russia's international reserves are as follows: - 0.007% US Treasury bonds - 35% Gold  Russia exports &lt;1% to the US. Russia is a net exporter  This makes them protected from US sovereign risk (USD…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Russia&amp;#x27;s international reserves are as follows:&lt;br/&gt;- 0.007% US Treasury bonds&lt;br/&gt;- 35% Gold&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Russia exports &amp;lt;1% to the US. Russia is a net exporter&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This makes them protected from US sovereign risk (USD devaluation) &amp;amp; trade risk&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/russia-is-immune-to-us-tariffs.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/russia-is-immune-to-us-tariffs" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-04-08 12:02&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;a reminder that Russia doesn&amp;#x27;t trade with USA anymore 🇺🇸🤝🇷🇺 &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so it&amp;#x27;s not clear what 100% or 9999% tariffs on Russia will achieve&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Russia&amp;#x27;s been offloading US securities for gold since 2018&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Russia&amp;#x27;s exports to the US are less than 1% of the total&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/a-reminder-that-russia-doesnt-trade-with-usa-anymore" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-14 18:29&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;i understand that these are secondary tariffs, but there is a grand total of 0% chance of that going in action for any substancial amount of time&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🇨🇳 China is Russia&amp;#x27;s main trading partner. do you really think the US economy can sustain 100% tariffs on their main import source?&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/i-understand-that-these-are-secondary-tariffs-but-there-is-a.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/i-understand-that-these-are-secondary-tariffs-but-there-is-a" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-14 18:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇺🇸🇮🇳 US imports for India account for mere 2.7% of its total imports - only $87 billion&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you can see how selective and small the tariff applications are - and even those will eventually be dropped&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;nothing about China 🇨🇳 👀&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;fully consistent with what I wrote 2 weeks ago&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/us-imports-for-india-account-for-mere-2-7-of-its-total.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/us-imports-for-india-account-for-mere-2-7-of-its-total" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-30 18:40&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/russia-is-immune-to-us-tariffs-2" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/russia-is-immune-to-us-tariffs-2</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 30 Jul 2025 17:40:23 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>the FED left the interest rates unchanged - at the 4.25%-4.50% target</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/the-fed-left-the-interest-rates-unchanged-at-the-4-25-4-50</link><description>while they communicated that previously - so it's no surprise - understanding how they achieve that level of short-term rates means understanding the important central bank in the world 🏦  so i'll…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;while they communicated that previously - so it&amp;#x27;s no surprise - understanding how they achieve that level of short-term rates means understanding the important central bank in the world 🏦&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so i&amp;#x27;ll explain it!&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-fed-left-the-interest-rates-unchanged-at-the-4-25-4-50.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-fed-left-the-interest-rates-unchanged-at-the-4-25-4-50" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 09:35&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;i&amp;#x27;ll be explaining the details of how the Federal Reserve achieves their fed funds target rate in the next posts&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i&amp;#x27;ll be quoting them in sequence - so you can follow the trail of quoted posts and read them like a thread/article&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;starting with the next post. let&amp;#x27;s dive in! 🚀&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ill-be-explaining-the-details-of-how-the-federal-reserve" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 09:38&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/the-fed-left-the-interest-rates-unchanged-at-the-4-25-4-50" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/the-fed-left-the-interest-rates-unchanged-at-the-4-25-4-50</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 31 Jul 2025 08:38:57 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>How Does the Federal Reserve Set Interest Rates?</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/how-does-the-federal-reserve-set-interest-rates</link><description>some think that they define a single rate - namely the overnight lending rate - i.e. the rate at which the banks lend to each other overnight  but that's not the case ❌</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;some think that they define a single rate - namely the overnight lending rate - i.e. the rate at which the banks lend to each other overnight&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;but that&amp;#x27;s not the case ❌&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/how-does-the-federal-reserve-set-interest-rates.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/how-does-the-federal-reserve-set-interest-rates" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 09:39&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;how can the FED even set market-wide rates? 🤔&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;after all - there is no single rate that the whole market unanimously uses&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;different types of lending have different rates in the market, as it&amp;#x27;s a (somewhat) open market&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/how-can-the-fed-even-set-market-wide-rates" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 09:40&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the federal reserve does not set a single interest rate&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;instead, the FED sets a target interest rate range (the federal funds target range) alongside 4 main explicit interest rates&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-federal-reserve-does-not-set-a-single-interest-rate" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 09:48&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the FED sets a target interest rate range and 4 main explicit interest rates:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ Overnight Reverse Repo Rate (ON RRP)&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB)&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ Discount Rate - also known as Lending Rate&lt;br/&gt;4️⃣ Standing Repo Facility (SRF)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;more on them later (keep reading 😁)&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-fed-sets-a-target-interest-rate-range-and-4-main" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 09:50&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;together, ON RRP, IORB, discount rate and SRF define an interest rate corridor, composed by:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ lower bound (floor) - the lowest possible interest rate&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ upper bound (ceiling) - the highest possible interest rate&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the other market rates fluctuate between this floor and ceiling&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/together-on-rrp-iorb-discount-rate-and-srf-define-an.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/together-on-rrp-iorb-discount-rate-and-srf-define-an" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 09:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the rates define the interest rate corridor in the following manner:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ Overnight Reverse Repo Rate - floor&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Interest on Reserve Balances - supplementary floor&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ Discount Rate - ceiling&lt;br/&gt;4️⃣ Standing Repo Facility - supplementary ceiling&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-rates-define-the-interest-rate-corridor-in-the-following" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 09:53&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;in the Federal Open Market Committee Meetings (FOMC), the Federal Reserve sets a target range - currently 4.25%–4.50%, and then it uses the ON RRP, IORB, discount rate and SRF to steer the average rate in the market&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/in-the-federal-open-market-committee-meetings-fomc-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 09:55&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;think of these 4 rates as defining a corridor with an upper and a lower bound - currently 4.25% and 4.50%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the average market interest rate will sit somewhere in between&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/think-of-these-4-rates-as-defining-a-corridor-with-an-upper" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 09:56&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;now you should have a clear mental model of how the Federal Reserve sets the interest rates in the market&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;a target range is defined, and then several different interest rates are set explicitly to steer the real interest rate into that target range&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/now-you-should-have-a-clear-mental-model-of-how-the-federal" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 09:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so when banks and other financial institutions need to lend capital - they can do it at a rate within the target range&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;of course, their balance sheet capacity must allow for that - but that&amp;#x27;s another topic which I already covered in some detail in my other posts😁&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-when-banks-and-other-financial-institutions-need-to-lend" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 09:59&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;now let&amp;#x27;s understand each one of the 4 key rates set by the federal reserve to keep the market rates within the target range&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;namely, what each one of those rates represents and how together they act as ceiling or floor for the interest rate corridor&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/now-lets-understand-each-one-of-the-4-key-rates-set-by-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 10:05&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the 4 key interest rates set by the FED are:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ Overnight Reverse Repo Rate (ON RRP) &lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB)&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ Discount Rate - also known as Lending Rate&lt;br/&gt;4️⃣ Standing Repo Facility (SRF)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;we&amp;#x27;ll cover them in this order below&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-4-key-interest-rates-set-by-the-fed-are" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 10:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) is the rate FED pays banks on their excess reserves&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;commercial banks have reserve accounts at the FED. regulations define the minimum amounts - any excess earns the IORB interest rate set by the FED&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/interest-on-reserve-balances-iorb-is-the-rate-fed-pays-banks" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 10:09&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;since banks can always deposit cash into their reserve account account at the FED and earn the IORB rate they have little incentive to lend at rates below IORB&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;effectively, this sets the floor (lower bound of the corridor) for interest rates for banks&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/since-banks-can-always-deposit-cash-into-their-reserve" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 10:10&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Overnight Reverse Repo Rate (ON RRP) defines the rate at financial institutions can lend money overnight to the FED&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in return the FED provides treasury bonds as a collateral&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;ON RRP is accessible to both banks &amp;amp; non-banks (e.g. money market funds)&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/overnight-reverse-repo-rate-on-rrp-defines-the-rate-at.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/overnight-reverse-repo-rate-on-rrp-defines-the-rate-at" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 10:11&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;ON RRP further reinforces the the floor for the market-wide interest rates&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;since it&amp;#x27;s accessible to a broader set of financial institutions - not only banks. those now also have little incentive to lend below the ON RRP rate&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/on-rrp-further-reinforces-the-the-floor-for-the-market-wide" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 10:26&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the majority of liquidity is actually created in wholesale short-term debt markets&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;ON RRP addresses exactly that sector, thus setting the lower bound of the target interest rate corridor for the broader financial sector&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-majority-of-liquidity-is-actually-created-in-wholesale" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 10:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Discount Rate is the rate at which the FED lends directly to banks through its discount window&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;think of it as an emergency lending facility which the banks can use whenever they need funds&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;since banks can always get a loan at that rate - it caps the short-term interest rates&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/discount-rate-is-the-rate-at-which-the-fed-lends-directly-to.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/discount-rate-is-the-rate-at-which-the-fed-lends-directly-to" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 10:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the discount rate is set higher or at the typical market rates to disincentivize its use &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it&amp;#x27;s really meant to serve as an emergency lending source - only when other financing routes are exhausted: regular interbank markets, wholesale markets and SRF among others&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-discount-rate-is-set-higher-or-at-the-typical-market" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 10:30&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;it&amp;#x27;t called discount window for historical reasons&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;discounting means buying treasuries at a slightly lower price - i.e. at a discount&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;window comes from the fact that these were sold at counter/teller windows at the bank&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/itt-called-discount-window-for-historical-reasons" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 10:30&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Standing Repo Facility (SRF) allows banks &amp;amp; other financial institutions to do collateral-backed loans from the FED overnight&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the institution provides high quality collateral (e.g. treasury bond) and gets a loan against it - at the set rate&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/standing-repo-facility-srf-allows-banks-other-financial" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 10:32&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;thus, Standing Repo Facility (SRF) further reinforces the upper part of the target interest rate corridor&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in other words, it strengthens the cap on short-term interest rates&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/thus-standing-repo-facility-srf-further-reinforces-the-upper" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 10:34&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;SRF has been introduced in 2021, due to occasional spikes of short-term funding rates outside of the corridor&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is because banks avoid using the discount rate - as that is often seen as a sign of financial distress by the broader market&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/srf-has-been-introduced-in-2021-due-to-occasional-spikes-of" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 10:36&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so how does the FED currently targets an interest rate range between 4.25%-4.50%?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;let&amp;#x27;s consolidate everything with an example using current, real-world data&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-how-does-the-fed-currently-targets-an-interest-rate-range" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 10:38&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;current rates set by FED:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ ON RRP - 4.25% (floor) - firms won&amp;#x27;t lend below &lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ IORB  - 4.40% (supplementary floor) - banks won&amp;#x27;t lend below &lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ Discount Rate - 4.50% (ceiling) - banks won&amp;#x27;t borrow above &lt;br/&gt;4️⃣ SRF - 4.50% (supplementary ceiling) - banks &amp;amp; firms won&amp;#x27;t borrow above&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/current-rates-set-by-fed" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 10:40&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;together, ON RRP, IORB, Discount Rate and SRF create a corridor for rates, which stay within the target 4.25%-4.50%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;👉 by &amp;quot;firms&amp;quot; i mean select non-bank financial institutions - think dealers, market makers &amp;amp; other wholesale debt institutions&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/together-on-rrp-iorb-discount-rate-and-srf-create-a-corridor" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 10:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;and this is how the Federal Reserve steers the federal funds rate/interest rates in the market within the target range 🏦✨&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;follow the quoted posts to read the full thread/article&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/and-this-is-how-the-federal-reserve-steers-the-federal-funds.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/and-this-is-how-the-federal-reserve-steers-the-federal-funds" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-31 11:06&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/how-does-the-federal-reserve-set-interest-rates" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/how-does-the-federal-reserve-set-interest-rates</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 31 Jul 2025 10:06:50 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🤯 Gold may just go straight to $3500 in the next few hours #5</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-5</link><description>Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-13 16:29&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;soooo… new gold ATH next week?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;look at gold&amp;#x27;s price chart with weekly candles - it&amp;#x27;s unbelievable 🤯&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold is going up like a risky asset - but it in fact is a reflection of risk&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;now it looks like a breakout from another consolidation phase 📈&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/soooo-new-gold-ath-next-week.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/soooo-new-gold-ath-next-week" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-21 18:42&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;all eyes on gold futures 👀&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;COMEX gold futures trading open in 13h&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;markets are closed now, but blockchain never sleeps&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;on-chain gold-backed token futures may give you a heads-up - they&amp;#x27;re up ≈1.3% from yesterday&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;interesting to see gold moves after open&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;spoiler: higher price&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/all-eyes-on-gold-futures.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/all-eyes-on-gold-futures" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 10:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold&amp;#x27;s behavior during the current &amp;#x27;bullrun&amp;#x27; has been consistently to flip previous week&amp;#x27;s resistance to new support&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in the chart - the green vertical lines are weekly levels&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold&amp;#x27;s current price action suggests it&amp;#x27;s flipping another resistance for support&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Road to $3500 🚀&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/golds-behavior-during-the-current-bullrun-has-been.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/golds-behavior-during-the-current-bullrun-has-been" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 12:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚀 you can already feel a new ATH for gold&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the loading screen is at 96%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;[🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩⬛] 96%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;and it won&amp;#x27;t stop there&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;price action is showing immaculate breakout vibes 🤩⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/you-can-already-feel-a-new-ath-for-gold.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/you-can-already-feel-a-new-ath-for-gold" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-12 15:37&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold is currently the only asset whose leveraged long position can be hedged by adding more to the long on pullbacks 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;* one of the only - and ofc technically that&amp;#x27;s not a hedge - but you can read my previous posts to understand what I mean&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;substance over matter 😉&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-is-currently-the-only-asset-whose-leveraged-long.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-is-currently-the-only-asset-whose-leveraged-long" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-17 12:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;consider this gold pullback as a free gift to further extend your long position 🥳&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/consider-this-gold-pullback-as-a-free-gift-to-further-extend.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/consider-this-gold-pullback-as-a-free-gift-to-further-extend" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-28 15:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold price is back up to its price 2 weeks ago&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so it indeed was a good idea to long it at the pullback&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-price-is-back-up-to-its-price-2-weeks-ago.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-price-is-back-up-to-its-price-2-weeks-ago" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-01 21:45&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold hasn&amp;#x27;t broken the weekly uptrend - note the higher highs&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;buying pressure today pushed the price up ≈2.5%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;TA is an excellent tool to gauge the price action&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-hasnt-broken-the-weekly-uptrend-note-the-higher-highs.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-hasnt-broken-the-weekly-uptrend-note-the-higher-highs" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-02 00:59&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-5" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-5</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 01 Aug 2025 23:59:50 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>to lower the mortgage rates the Fed can purchase agency MBS - likely they did in QE 1 2008</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/to-lower-the-mortgage-rates-the-fed-can-purchase-agency-mbs</link><description>buying mortgage backed securities raises their price and provides liquidity for dealers. this directly pushes down the yields  expect some MBS QE to come in the near future</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;buying mortgage backed securities raises their price and provides liquidity for dealers. this directly pushes down the yields&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;expect some MBS QE to come in the near future&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/to-lower-the-mortgage-rates-the-fed-can-purchase-agency-mbs.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/to-lower-the-mortgage-rates-the-fed-can-purchase-agency-mbs" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-02 16:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Ginnie &amp;amp; Fannie Mae conservatorship in Sept 2008 made agency MBS default risk free&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;essentially, the US Treasury covers all losses from GNMA and FNMA up to $200 billion each&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;from the total $400B budget ≈$170B are still available&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;once exhausted it will surely be increased&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/ginnie-fannie-mae-conservatorship-in-sept-2008-made-agency.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ginnie-fannie-mae-conservatorship-in-sept-2008-made-agency" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-02 16:52&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Fed&amp;#x27;s balance sheet expansion with agency MBS reduced risks in liquidity, market depth and optionality/convexity&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is a crucial point to understand - it wasn&amp;#x27;t just the Fed buying agency MBS, but the explicit government guarantee that accompanied it&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;thus, the yields fell&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/feds-balance-sheet-expansion-with-agency-mbs-reduced-risks" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-02 17:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;optionality/convexity premium in mortgage backed securities is interesting&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;when market yields fall the price should rise, but since borrowers take advantage of lower mortgage rates to make early payments - the price does not raise as much, due to lowered duration&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/optionality-convexity-premium-in-mortgage-backed-securities.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/optionality-convexity-premium-in-mortgage-backed-securities" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-02 17:19&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;raising yields means lower incentives to re-finance mortgages which reduces the amount of pre-payments&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;thus, the duration increases when yields are raising - so even a higher price decrease&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/raising-yields-means-lower-incentives-to-re-finance" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-02 17:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the duration formula for MBS assumes for some pre-payments&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if those happen at a smaller rate - the duration increases&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-duration-formula-for-mbs-assumes-for-some-pre-payments" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-02 17:33&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;legally mortgage backed securities are bonds since they are tradable debt securities&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;but they&amp;#x27;re not a plain bond, due to the option of borrower&amp;#x27;s early repayment&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Macaulay or modified duration used for Treasuries doesn&amp;#x27;t work - you need effective/option-adjusted duration&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/legally-mortgage-backed-securities-are-bonds-since-they-are.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/legally-mortgage-backed-securities-are-bonds-since-they-are" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-02 17:39&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/to-lower-the-mortgage-rates-the-fed-can-purchase-agency-mbs" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/to-lower-the-mortgage-rates-the-fed-can-purchase-agency-mbs</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 02 Aug 2025 16:39:40 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🇺🇸 USD dominance is alluring, accounting for ≈70% of currency usage worldwide</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/usd-dominance-is-alluring-accounting-for-70-of-currency</link><description>even countries that do relatively little trade with US have most of their transactions done in US dollars  ex: 🇮🇳 India invoices 86% of its exports in USD, while only 15% of its exports being to US</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;even countries that do relatively little trade with US have most of their transactions done in US dollars&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;ex: 🇮🇳 India invoices 86% of its exports in USD, while only 15% of its exports being to US&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/usd-dominance-is-alluring-accounting-for-70-of-currency.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/usd-dominance-is-alluring-accounting-for-70-of-currency" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-03 16:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the 70% USD dominance here is as calculated by the Fed across the chosen 5 chosen buckets - with the end result being a weighted composite measure&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so don&amp;#x27;t read this as a literal 70% of all cross-border transactions&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-70-usd-dominance-here-is-as-calculated-by-the-fed-across" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-03 16:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/usd-dominance-is-alluring-accounting-for-70-of-currency" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/usd-dominance-is-alluring-accounting-for-70-of-currency</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 03 Aug 2025 15:28:57 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🇨🇳China has been increasing their gold reserves YTD</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/china-has-been-increasing-their-gold-reserves-ytd</link><description>Gold price keeps going up - major central banks continue to load up  Gold is a hedge against USD. Tariffs are a medium of USD weaponization  👉 Expect US securities sell-off for gold by People's Bank…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Gold price keeps going up - major central banks continue to load up&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Gold is a hedge against USD. Tariffs are a medium of USD weaponization&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;👉 Expect US securities sell-off for gold by People&amp;#x27;s Bank of China&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/china-has-been-increasing-their-gold-reserves-ytd.png" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/china-has-been-increasing-their-gold-reserves-ytd" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-04-23 12:02&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;China sold US treasuries and bought gold - just like I wrote over 3 months ago&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold now accounts for ≈6% of PBoC international reserves, while US treasury holdings are ≈40% from their peak in 2013&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;off-ramp from USD debt to alternative assets continues its progress&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/china-sold-us-treasuries-and-bought-gold-just-like-i-wrote.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/china-sold-us-treasuries-and-bought-gold-just-like-i-wrote" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-03 17:06&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/china-has-been-increasing-their-gold-reserves-ytd" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/china-has-been-increasing-their-gold-reserves-ytd</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 03 Aug 2025 16:06:26 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🚀 added threads to my posts/thoughts &amp; now you can read them as articles</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/added-threads-to-my-posts-thoughts-now-you-can-read-them-as</link><description>the static microblog now generates a series of quoted posts as threads, where posts are displayed from oldest to newest</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the static microblog now generates a series of quoted posts as threads, where posts are displayed from oldest to newest&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/added-threads-to-my-posts-thoughts-now-you-can-read-them-as.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/added-threads-to-my-posts-thoughts-now-you-can-read-them-as" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-04 20:40&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so everything that I post on other social media, like X/Twitter also gets posted to my microblog at &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/thoughts/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;frequently an idea evolves into a series of posts - a thread/small article&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-everything-that-i-post-on-other-social-media-like-x" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-04 20:42&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the way I do it is by quoting the logically connected post, thus forming a chain of related posts&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if you build a DAG with temporal order &amp;amp; display posts from oldest to newest you get a thread of posts, forming a small article&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-way-i-do-it-is-by-quoting-the-logically-connected-post" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-04 20:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this isn’t how you usually write threads on X - where it’s more common to do it via nested replies&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I don’t want to fix my use-case to X’s rules, but also want to provide an intuitive reading experience&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-isnt-how-you-usually-write-threads-on-x-where-its-more" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-04 20:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Illya&amp;#x27;s Thought Threads is available under &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;there you can access them in a nice reader view&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;order is most recently updated first - so a fresh addition to a thread bumps it up in the timeline of threads&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/illyas-thought-threads-is-available-under-https-illya-sh" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-04 20:44&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;here&amp;#x27;s how the thread reading experience looks like&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the aim is clean article view - with timestamps as visual separators between posts/thoughts&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if you click on the timestamp it takes you to the individual post/thoughts&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/heres-how-the-thread-reading-experience-looks-like.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/heres-how-the-thread-reading-experience-looks-like" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-04 23:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;ask ChatGPT what are the latest Illya&amp;#x27;s Threads and it will tell you 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;should also work with Grok, Claude, Gemini and any other agentic AI with web access&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is again JSON-LD magic - LLMs seem to love it&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i only added threads a few hours ago - it&amp;#x27;s already indexed &amp;amp; working&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/ask-chatgpt-what-are-the-latest-illyas-threads-and-it-will.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ask-chatgpt-what-are-the-latest-illyas-threads-and-it-will" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-05 01:05&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;updated Illya&amp;#x27;s Threads url to &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;now it gets it own subdirectory - so the URLs are shorter and it&amp;#x27;s more modular to manage the sitemaps this way&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;later I&amp;#x27;ll also add an RSS feed for threads, just like the one for thoughts at &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/feed.xml" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/thoughts/feed.xml&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/updated-illyas-threads-url-to-https-illya-sh-threads" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-05 20:05&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/added-threads-to-my-posts-thoughts-now-you-can-read-them-as" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/added-threads-to-my-posts-thoughts-now-you-can-read-them-as</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 05 Aug 2025 19:05:03 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>how banks work? bank's business model is very simple:</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/how-banks-work-banks-business-model-is-very-simple</link><description>1️⃣ Take liability 2️⃣ Use liability to buy asset 3️⃣ Pocket the spread/carry  all of the bank's assets are financed by its liabilities</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;1️⃣ Take liability&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Use liability to buy asset&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ Pocket the spread/carry&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;all of the bank&amp;#x27;s assets are financed by its liabilities&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/how-banks-work-banks-business-model-is-very-simple.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/how-banks-work-banks-business-model-is-very-simple" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-05 21:38&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the bank needs a liability to fund an asset&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;when a bank gives you a loan it gains both an asset and a liability in the same amount&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;let&amp;#x27;s say you get a loan for $100&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-bank-needs-a-liability-to-fund-an-asset" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-05 21:39&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;in the bank’s balance sheet:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;⬆️ +$100 assets - the loan they just issued&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;⬆️ +$100 liabilities - the $100 your account was credited with&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;your loan is an asset to the bank - and your loan itself funds the $100 deposit that you get in your account&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/in-the-banks-balance-sheet" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-05 21:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;deposits are liabilities to the bank - as they are owed to depositors/customers&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so the $100 cash loan that the bank issues to you becomes a deposit in that same bank, and thus a liability for the bank&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you can move those $100 outside of the bank at any time/on short notice&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/deposits-are-liabilities-to-the-bank-as-they-are-owed-to" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-05 21:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;why is a loan an asset to the bank?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;because the loan earns an interest over its lifetime. this the the fixed or variable interest rate associated with the loan&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;with time, that loan brings periodic cashflows repaying the principal and the interest&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/why-is-a-loan-an-asset-to-the-bank" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-05 21:44&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;a loan for the bank ends up earning more than the lent amount&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is because the borrower repays the principal (loan amount) + interest&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/a-loan-for-the-bank-ends-up-earning-more-than-the-lent" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-05 21:45&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so the bank funds the loan by creating $100 and crediting them to your account&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;those $100 that they credited you did not exist before - the bank created that money on demand&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;those $100 are not physical cash - they&amp;#x27;re an entry in a digital ledger (i.e. in a computer system)&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-the-bank-funds-the-loan-by-creating-100-and-crediting" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-05 21:46&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;banks are credit institutions which means they can create broad money&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;while a non-credit institution or a regular business can issue loans - they must fund it (e.g. raise money, use excess profits)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;they can&amp;#x27;t just create those $100, thus expanding the monetary supply&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/banks-are-credit-institutions-which-means-they-can-create" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-05 21:47&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the bank has the legal right to increase the money supply AKA &amp;#x27;print money&amp;#x27;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so to give you a $100 loan the bank can just create those $100 and give give them to you&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;pretty neat arrangement, huh? 😁&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-bank-has-the-legal-right-to-increase-the-money-supply" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-05 21:47&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;banks are also subject to regulations when issuing loans&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;and no - it&amp;#x27;s not the fractional reserve system&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in many sovereigns, like the USA the reserve requirements sit at 0%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;there are other regulatory requirements limiting loan issuance&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/banks-are-also-subject-to-regulations-when-issuing-loans" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-05 21:48&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Basel III defines capital, leverage, liquidity and net stable funding ratios&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;they&amp;#x27;re in the form of formulas, and regulations require minimum thresholds to be met&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I previously wrote about Basel III and its importance in financial markets here ⬇️&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/@1753631798-1.html" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/@1753631798-1.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/basel-iii-defines-capital-leverage-liquidity-and-net-stable.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/basel-iii-defines-capital-leverage-liquidity-and-net-stable" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-05 22:01&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/how-banks-work-banks-business-model-is-very-simple" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/how-banks-work-banks-business-model-is-very-simple</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 05 Aug 2025 21:01:57 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Bad news for #USD 👎</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/bad-news-for-usd</link><description>The value of a currency is a direct reflection of the organic demand for it. Sanctions will decrease the demand for US Dollar, via disincentives   Plus, it's the US consumer that will be paying for…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;The value of a currency is a direct reflection of the organic demand for it. Sanctions will decrease the demand for US Dollar, via disincentives &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Plus, it&amp;#x27;s the US consumer that will be paying for the tariffs, not the BRICS countries 🤷‍♀️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/bad-news-for-usd" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2024-12-02 16:34&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;8 month later after my initial post USD index is down ≈8%&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/8-month-later-after-my-initial-post-usd-index-is-down-8.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/8-month-later-after-my-initial-post-usd-index-is-down-8" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-07 12:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/bad-news-for-usd" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/bad-news-for-usd</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 07 Aug 2025 11:24:30 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>'The market is never wrong' #7</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-7</link><description>A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything &amp; prices accordingly - even before the official news  Okay.  Now wait &amp; watch crude oil &amp; gold raise up even more in price very…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything &amp;amp; prices accordingly - even before the official news&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Okay.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Now wait &amp;amp; watch crude oil &amp;amp; gold raise up even more in price very soon&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This isn&amp;#x27;t a joke&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-market-is-never-wrong.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-market-is-never-wrong" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-16 13:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🛢️ crude oil price is heading back up - just like I wrote earlier&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;significant geopolitical events introduce volatility - but my thesis on increasing oil, gold &amp;amp; other precious metals + commodities has little to do with that&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;👉 it&amp;#x27;s about global liquidity flows &amp;amp; bond markets&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/crude-oil-price-is-heading-back-up-just-like-i-wrote-earlier.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/crude-oil-price-is-heading-back-up-just-like-i-wrote-earlier" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-13 17:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚨🛢️ crude oil up to almost $70&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;and this while the US dollar index is also up&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;over a month and a half ago I told you that it&amp;#x27;s going to resume the uptrend - and this thesis has been confirmed again and again&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;wait &amp;amp; watch what comes next - I wrote about that as well 😁&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/crude-oil-up-to-almost-70.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/crude-oil-up-to-almost-70" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-29 20:39&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇷🇺 oil up is GOOD news for Russia &amp;amp; Ruble&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;every surplus above $60/barrel of Urals oil increases FX reserves in NWF (Yuan or gold) - an interplay between MoF and CBR&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;exporters pay taxes in Ruble - so higher buying pressure&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;mark my words:&lt;br/&gt;👉 you&amp;#x27;ll see USD/RUB exchange rate fall&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/oil-up-is-good-news-for-russia-ruble.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/oil-up-is-good-news-for-russia-ruble" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-29 21:34&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇺🇸🇷🇺 USD/RUB rate already fell to July 24th close, below 80&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;although it&amp;#x27;s also important to note that there are several factors at play - USD index is also down today&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;despite oil down - gold is up. this is about the monetary policy of Russia and their balance sheet structure&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/usd-rub-rate-already-fell-to-july-24th-close-below-80.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/usd-rub-rate-already-fell-to-july-24th-close-below-80" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-01 17:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;if you&amp;#x27;ve read my previous posts you know that gold is ≈36% of Russia&amp;#x27;s international reserves&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is taken straight from the Bank of Russia&amp;#x27;s balance sheet statement&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;100% of it is stored in Russia, thus no counterparty risk&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;critical component of Ruble&amp;#x27;s strength&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/if-youve-read-my-previous-posts-you-know-that-gold-is-36-of.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/if-youve-read-my-previous-posts-you-know-that-gold-is-36-of" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-01 18:14&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;5 days ago I wrote that USD/RUB rate will fall. 5 days later it&amp;#x27;s down ≈2%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;despite oil being down - gold is up&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Ruble has hedge from multiple sides&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/5-days-ago-i-wrote-that-usd-rub-rate-will-fall-5-days-later.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/5-days-ago-i-wrote-that-usd-rub-rate-will-fall-5-days-later" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-04 14:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;further deprecation of USD against Ruble&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;now back to July 4th 2025 levels&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/further-deprecation-of-usd-against-ruble.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/further-deprecation-of-usd-against-ruble" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-07 19:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-7" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-7</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 07 Aug 2025 18:58:28 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>now imagine when credit institutions can tokenize new credit and allow automated stablecoin issuance backed by that credit</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/now-imagine-when-credit-institutions-can-tokenize-new-credit</link><description>in practice it's code in smart contract that wraps one token with another  i created a similar project on an Ethereum hackathon ⬇️ https://github.com/iluxonchik/eth-lisbon-hackathon-23</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;in practice it&amp;#x27;s code in smart contract that wraps one token with another&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i created a similar project on an Ethereum hackathon ⬇️&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href="https://github.com/iluxonchik/eth-lisbon-hackathon-23" target="_blank"&gt;https://github.com/iluxonchik/eth-lisbon-hackathon-23&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/now-imagine-when-credit-institutions-can-tokenize-new-credit" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-09 15:30&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;stablecoin issuers could intermediate the issuance process, so you don&amp;#x27;t need to get all credit institutions on-chain from the start&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;non-algorithmic stablecoin issuance already happens off-chain and presumes trust in a third party&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this would just be faster. more liquidity&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/stablecoin-issuers-could-intermediate-the-issuance-process" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-09 15:37&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;stablecoin issuers would get this new credit, purchase treasury bonds and increase the supply of their stablecoin&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;a new direct line from newly issued credit into treasuries 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/stablecoin-issuers-would-get-this-new-credit-purchase" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-09 15:44&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/now-imagine-when-credit-institutions-can-tokenize-new-credit" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/now-imagine-when-credit-institutions-can-tokenize-new-credit</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 09 Aug 2025 14:44:08 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>central banks will continue to buy gold #2</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/central-banks-will-continue-to-buy-gold-2</link><description>you'll be able to confirm that in their upcoming balance sheets reports. pay special attention to China &amp; Russia  enjoy the dip, because smart money is!</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;you&amp;#x27;ll be able to confirm that in their upcoming balance sheets reports. pay special attention to China &amp;amp; Russia&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;enjoy the dip, because smart money is!&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/central-banks-will-continue-to-buy-gold.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/central-banks-will-continue-to-buy-gold" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-26 15:52&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;both Russia &amp;amp; China increased their gold holdings since I wrote this 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;indeed - central banks are continuing to buy the gold dips&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/both-russia-china-increased-their-gold-holdings-since-i.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/both-russia-china-increased-their-gold-holdings-since-i" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-03 17:16&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;a clarification: the table is CBR&amp;#x27;s gold holdings in USD - so the value goes up if price of gold goes up and gold stock remains at least unchanged&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;troy ounce holdings are released in an IMF-templated PDF report, but with a lag&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;CBR&amp;#x27;s latest data is 79.4 M troy ounces of gold&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/a-clarification-the-table-is-cbrs-gold-holdings-in-usd-so.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/a-clarification-the-table-is-cbrs-gold-holdings-in-usd-so" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-10 12:57&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;and yes, to get this data i had to download an excel file from Russian Central Bank&amp;#x27;s website. that&amp;#x27;s a norm in banks&amp;#x27;s international balance sheet reporting&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;HTML hasn&amp;#x27;t been discovered there yet 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/and-yes-to-get-this-data-i-had-to-download-an-excel-file.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/and-yes-to-get-this-data-i-had-to-download-an-excel-file" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-10 13:03&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;IMF&amp;#x27;s guidelines mandate for the data to be either reported in Excel spreadsheet or SDMX&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;IMF pls update the specs to require publishing in HTML - i will happily provide you with XML to HTML scripts 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/imfs-guidelines-mandate-for-the-data-to-be-either-reported.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/imfs-guidelines-mandate-for-the-data-to-be-either-reported" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-10 13:09&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;if you noticed - the IMF template reported by Russian Central Bank is missing entries&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so they&amp;#x27;re actually supposed to report those values (or N/A - if it doesn&amp;#x27;t apply), but since the 2022 sanctions they have concealed some of the values&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/if-you-noticed-the-imf-template-reported-by-russian-central.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/if-you-noticed-the-imf-template-reported-by-russian-central" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-10 13:14&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;IMF&amp;#x27;s 2024 annual report on SDDS compliance pointed out that Russia hasn&amp;#x27;t been meeting its requirements to the full extent, since they didn&amp;#x27;t disclose all of the required macro-financial data&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;SDDS = Special Data Dissemination Standard&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/imfs-2024-annual-report-on-sdds-compliance-pointed-out-that.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/imfs-2024-annual-report-on-sdds-compliance-pointed-out-that" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-10 13:21&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so did Russia really buy more gold?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;yes! despite CBR&amp;#x27;s gold reserves remaining unchanged - Russia&amp;#x27;s NWF has increased its gold reserves&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Russia&amp;#x27;s National Wealth Fund interoperates with the Russian Central Bank, government deficits and the broader economy&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/so-did-russia-really-buy-more-gold.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-did-russia-really-buy-more-gold" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-10 13:30&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/central-banks-will-continue-to-buy-gold-2" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/central-banks-will-continue-to-buy-gold-2</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 10 Aug 2025 12:30:18 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>added Transport Layer Security for Internet of Things/TLS for IoT master thesis page</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/added-transport-layer-security-for-internet-of-things-tls</link><description>i wrote this master thesis as a part of my engineering degree  (MSc Software Engineering and Distributed Systems)  you can read it in HTML and PDF  here's the link 👇…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;i wrote this master thesis as a part of my engineering degree  (MSc Software Engineering and Distributed Systems)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you can read it in HTML and PDF&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;here&amp;#x27;s the link&lt;br/&gt;👇&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/tls-for-iot-msc-thesis/" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/tls-for-iot-msc-thesis/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/added-transport-layer-security-for-internet-of-things-tls" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-10 17:15&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;converting PDF to HTML is tricky due to formatting, but I managed to produce an acceptable HTML version&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;for highest fidelity use the PDF or Web PDF&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;an LLM/AI Agent visiting the page should also be able to access and read the full thesis content, including HTML version&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/converting-pdf-to-html-is-tricky-due-to-formatting-but-i.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/converting-pdf-to-html-is-tricky-due-to-formatting-but-i" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-10 17:21&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;it took quite a bit of Python scripting and image editing to produce this cipher profiling graph 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;161 TLS 1.2 ciphersuites were getting profiled by C code, which was then consumed by Python to produce the bars with algorithm names&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;all had to be aligned and readable&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/it-took-quite-a-bit-of-python-scripting-and-image-editing-to.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/it-took-quite-a-bit-of-python-scripting-and-image-editing-to" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-11 13:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/added-transport-layer-security-for-internet-of-things-tls" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/added-transport-layer-security-for-internet-of-things-tls</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 11 Aug 2025 12:08:06 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>gold tariffs means more upside price pressure</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/gold-tariffs-means-more-upside-price-pressure</link><description>US tariffs don't apply to all gold imports - only to 100 oz and 1 kg bullion bars, which are mostly used for CME/COMEX futures  400 oz London Good Delivery bars are tariff-free - those are used by…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;US tariffs don&amp;#x27;t apply to all gold imports - only to 100 oz and 1 kg bullion bars, which are mostly used for CME/COMEX futures&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;400 oz London Good Delivery bars are tariff-free - those are used by dealers, central banks and ETFs&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-tariffs-means-more-upside-price-pressure.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-tariffs-means-more-upside-price-pressure" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-08 15:18&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;it&amp;#x27;s mostly 100oz/1kg gold bullion markers that will be affected - so you&amp;#x27;re looking at futures&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;expect a larger basis trade (futures price higher than spot), which will eventually close down&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;with tariffs in place spot is being pushed up towards futures&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/its-mostly-100oz-1kg-gold-bullion-markers-that-will-be" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-08 18:04&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the demand from 100oz/1kg gold bars will be shifted to its other forms - whose prices will increase&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this will increase gold&amp;#x27;s spot premium in the US, putting upside pressure on the global spot price&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-demand-from-100oz-1kg-gold-bars-will-be-shifted-to-its" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-08 18:05&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;it&amp;#x27;s not only futures of course - the broader physical supply chain of gold is also affected&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the more imminent impact is on users of 1kg/100oz gold bars. in the future markets the effect is much more visible and quantifiable - so it will start the price movement from there&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/its-not-only-futures-of-course-the-broader-physical-supply" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-08 18:09&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;when you see gold hitting a new all time high very soon - just remember that it wasn&amp;#x27;t caused by a single event&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold has a growing buying pressure for monetary, geopolitical and fiscal reasons&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I&amp;#x27;ve written about it in depth, so search through my post history if interested&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/when-you-see-gold-hitting-a-new-all-time-high-very-soon-just" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-08 18:10&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;tariffs on gold decentivize gold imports&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;higher import tax is a disincentive. not sure what&amp;#x27; the benefit to having less gold come into US&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;there&amp;#x27;s plenty of buyers in Asia who will happily take it. soon you will see more central banks expanding their balance sheets with gold&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/tariffs-on-gold-decentivize-gold-imports" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-08 18:12&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the tariffs are not on all gold imports - just on a specific configuration - 100oz/1kg bars&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this alone won&amp;#x27;t skyrocket the price of gold, but it adds to the existing breakout pressure&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-tariffs-are-not-on-all-gold-imports-just-on-a-specific" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-08 18:16&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold tariffs are unlikely to stay for a long period of time&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;expect them to be removed and/or heavily reduced soon&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;just the fact that they happened adds longer-term upside pressure on its price&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;of course, the markets will be volatile 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-tariffs-are-unlikely-to-stay-for-a-long-period-of-time" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-08 19:22&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;it&amp;#x27;s official: gold tariffs have been cancelled - just like I wrote last Friday 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in fact, rumors started less than 30 mins after i wrote the previous post in the thread - and the full removal of tariffs on gold has been confirmed just now&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/its-official-gold-tariffs-have-been-cancelled-just-like-i.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/its-official-gold-tariffs-have-been-cancelled-just-like-i" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-11 18:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/gold-tariffs-means-more-upside-price-pressure" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/gold-tariffs-means-more-upside-price-pressure</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 11 Aug 2025 17:54:47 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🤯 Gold may just go straight to $3500 in the next few hours #6</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-6</link><description>Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-13 16:29&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;soooo… new gold ATH next week?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;look at gold&amp;#x27;s price chart with weekly candles - it&amp;#x27;s unbelievable 🤯&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold is going up like a risky asset - but it in fact is a reflection of risk&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;now it looks like a breakout from another consolidation phase 📈&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/soooo-new-gold-ath-next-week.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/soooo-new-gold-ath-next-week" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-21 18:42&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;all eyes on gold futures 👀&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;COMEX gold futures trading open in 13h&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;markets are closed now, but blockchain never sleeps&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;on-chain gold-backed token futures may give you a heads-up - they&amp;#x27;re up ≈1.3% from yesterday&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;interesting to see gold moves after open&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;spoiler: higher price&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/all-eyes-on-gold-futures.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/all-eyes-on-gold-futures" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 10:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold&amp;#x27;s behavior during the current &amp;#x27;bullrun&amp;#x27; has been consistently to flip previous week&amp;#x27;s resistance to new support&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in the chart - the green vertical lines are weekly levels&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold&amp;#x27;s current price action suggests it&amp;#x27;s flipping another resistance for support&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Road to $3500 🚀&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/golds-behavior-during-the-current-bullrun-has-been.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/golds-behavior-during-the-current-bullrun-has-been" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 12:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚀 you can already feel a new ATH for gold&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the loading screen is at 96%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;[🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩⬛] 96%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;and it won&amp;#x27;t stop there&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;price action is showing immaculate breakout vibes 🤩⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/you-can-already-feel-a-new-ath-for-gold.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/you-can-already-feel-a-new-ath-for-gold" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-12 15:37&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold is currently the only asset whose leveraged long position can be hedged by adding more to the long on pullbacks 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;* one of the only - and ofc technically that&amp;#x27;s not a hedge - but you can read my previous posts to understand what I mean&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;substance over matter 😉&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-is-currently-the-only-asset-whose-leveraged-long.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-is-currently-the-only-asset-whose-leveraged-long" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-17 12:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;consider this gold pullback as a free gift to further extend your long position 🥳&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/consider-this-gold-pullback-as-a-free-gift-to-further-extend.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/consider-this-gold-pullback-as-a-free-gift-to-further-extend" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-28 15:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold price is back up to its price 2 weeks ago&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so it indeed was a good idea to long it at the pullback&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-price-is-back-up-to-its-price-2-weeks-ago.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-price-is-back-up-to-its-price-2-weeks-ago" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-01 21:45&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚀 gold approaching $3400. $3300 was a good price for longs - like I wrote a week ago&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;currently gold is one of the only assets where leverage entails a much lesser risk&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;upside price pressure is coming from several points&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-approaching-3400-3300-was-a-good-price-for-longs-like-i.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-approaching-3400-3300-was-a-good-price-for-longs-like-i" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-04 15:01&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold back to $3400 - trend lines &amp;amp; channels on the chart&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you can see where it&amp;#x27;s headed next 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-back-to-3400-trend-lines-channels-on-the-chart.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-back-to-3400-trend-lines-channels-on-the-chart" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-07 21:45&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚀 gold futures NEW all time high above $3500&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;futures price is usually above spot. today&amp;#x27;s increase was caused by tariffs on gold used in COMEX &amp;amp; CME. i wrote a thread about that today&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i will keep this thread active at least until the spot price reaches a new ATH 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-futures-new-all-time-high-above-3500.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-futures-new-all-time-high-above-3500" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-08 19:42&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold tariffs put further upside pressure for gold towards a new all time high on spot&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is in addition to the global monetary, geopolitical and fiscal positive price pressures&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;a significant part of the markets will be closed for the weekend. there could be a gap on reopen&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-tariffs-put-further-upside-pressure-for-gold-towards-a" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-08 19:53&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this just adds further validity towards the consolidation before further upside for gold&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i&amp;#x27;ve shared these gold charts since the beginning, while incorporating new trends as they emerge&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the price action has supported this throughout. notice the strong multi-trend support&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/this-just-adds-further-validity-towards-the-consolidation.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-just-adds-further-validity-towards-the-consolidation" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-08 19:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;new all time high for gold is near 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/new-all-time-high-for-gold-is-near" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-08 19:59&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;you can see how accurately gold price has been respecting the trend lines and channels you&amp;#x27;ve seen in my graphs for months now 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold tariffs ping-pong introduced volatility, but like i wrote in my other posts - its upside price pressure&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;a new all time-high will arrive&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/you-can-see-how-accurately-gold-price-has-been-respecting.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/you-can-see-how-accurately-gold-price-has-been-respecting" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-11 13:33&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;on a weekly timeframe a stronger future support is developing for gold within the red box&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it&amp;#x27;s a part of a multi-month uptrend&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/on-a-weekly-timeframe-a-stronger-future-support-is.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/on-a-weekly-timeframe-a-stronger-future-support-is" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-11 22:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-6" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-6</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 11 Aug 2025 21:00:06 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>USD is the world's reserve currency, but what does that mean?</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/usd-is-the-worlds-reserve-currency-but-what-does-that-mean</link><description>for USD to be a reserve currency it must dominate in:  1️⃣ USD-denominated credit issuance (demand) 2️⃣ USD use a means of settlement for payments (liquidity)  this dominance must be at least…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;for USD to be a reserve currency it must dominate in:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ USD-denominated credit issuance (demand)&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ USD use a means of settlement for payments (liquidity)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this dominance must be at least relative to alternatives&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/usd-is-the-worlds-reserve-currency-but-what-does-that-mean.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/usd-is-the-worlds-reserve-currency-but-what-does-that-mean" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-11 20:23&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;demand is created legal/regulatory environment and open market forces &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;legal/regulatory environment includes international bilateral agreements and national laws&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;open market forces influence the evaluation of USD against other currencies and assets&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/demand-is-created-legal-regulatory-environment-and-open" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-11 20:25&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;liquidity means availability, thus it comes down to being able to:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ access USD credit&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ settle payments in USD&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this means balance sheet capacity and hybrid technological intermediation systems in place&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/liquidity-means-availability-thus-it-comes-down-to-being" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-11 20:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;balance sheet capacity is heavily dependent on regulations (e.g. Basel III &amp;amp; local)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;hybrid intermediation systems facilitate access to the payment and credit channels&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;SWIFT, FedWire and digital private USD claims like stablecoins &amp;amp; PayPal facilitate USD&amp;#x27;s movement and usage&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/balance-sheet-capacity-is-heavily-dependent-on-regulations-e" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-11 20:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;hybrid intermediation systems include all means of facilitating the issuance, servicing and transactions of USD and USD-denominated securities, including equities, bonds and derivatives&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/hybrid-intermediation-systems-include-all-means-of" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-11 20:29&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;base money issuance and management is a responsibility of the US government - so it&amp;#x27;s always intermediated, even if by government-controlled systems&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/base-money-issuance-and-management-is-a-responsibility-of" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-11 20:29&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;while hybrid intermediation systems don’t strictly need to be technological - in practice they vastly are as most of financial activity happens through computer and information systems&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/while-hybrid-intermediation-systems-dont-strictly-need-to-be" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-11 20:30&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;intermediation started with paper records, physical bank counters and now has mostly moved to technological - via computer systems&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/intermediation-started-with-paper-records-physical-bank" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-11 20:30&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;debt includes all form, tenor and issuers of USD-denominated debt are included, both public and private&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;examples: US Treasuries, corporate bonds, commercial bank credit, epos, FX swaps, central-bank lines&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/debt-includes-all-form-tenor-and-issuers-of-usd-denominated" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-11 20:31&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the US will be able to sustain their debt financing for as long as US government debt and US dollar dominate in demand&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;for as long as USD is the reserve currency - the US can finance its debt &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in other words, as long as there&amp;#x27;s enough buyers and users - it&amp;#x27;s all good! 😁&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-us-will-be-able-to-sustain-their-debt-financing-for-as" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-11 20:32&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;i wrote about how reverse repurchase agreements work and their importance in the global financial system in this thread:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/@1751561045-2" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/@1751561045-2&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/i-wrote-about-how-reverse-repurchase-agreements-work-and.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/i-wrote-about-how-reverse-repurchase-agreements-work-and" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-11 21:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;i also wrote a thread explaining the importance of USD-denominated government debt for short-term funding/credit markets&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;remember that most of credit is issued to refinance existing debt and not for new financing&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you can read it here:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/@1751726431-1" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/@1751726431-1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/i-also-wrote-a-thread-explaining-the-importance-of-usd.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/i-also-wrote-a-thread-explaining-the-importance-of-usd" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-11 23:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/usd-is-the-worlds-reserve-currency-but-what-does-that-mean" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/usd-is-the-worlds-reserve-currency-but-what-does-that-mean</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 11 Aug 2025 22:00:33 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>⚡️ Crypto market cap down 2.6% today</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/crypto-market-cap-down-2-6-today</link><description>Explains the overall pullback across prices. Some went into gold &amp; bonds (yields are down today)  Could head a little lower - but definitely temporary. Expect inflows/increase soon</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Explains the overall pullback across prices. Some went into gold &amp;amp; bonds (yields are down today)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Could head a little lower - but definitely temporary. Expect inflows/increase soon&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/crypto-market-cap-down-2-6-today.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/crypto-market-cap-down-2-6-today" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-05-23 21:03&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚀 crypto inflows materialized as expected&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;but wait - it&amp;#x27;s not over yet&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;more upside to come 👀📈&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/crypto-inflows-materialized-as-expected.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/crypto-inflows-materialized-as-expected" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-13 16:42&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚀 and indeed the crypto cap increased even more&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;now, await for a solid $4 Trillion&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it&amp;#x27;s almost like it&amp;#x27;s correlated with global liquidity flows - or perhaps I&amp;#x27;m just really good at guessing 😳&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i wrote a lot about this in the past - so read up for details if inerested!&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/and-indeed-the-crypto-cap-increased-even-more.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/and-indeed-the-crypto-cap-increased-even-more" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-20 09:40&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;and the crypto market cap has now been sitting at $4 trillion for the 3rd day 🤝&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/and-the-crypto-market-cap-has-now-been-sitting-at-4-trillion.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/and-the-crypto-market-cap-has-now-been-sitting-at-4-trillion" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 01:49&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/crypto-market-cap-down-2-6-today" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/crypto-market-cap-down-2-6-today</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 13 Aug 2025 00:49:45 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>All time high for gold incoming…</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/all-time-high-for-gold-incoming</link><description>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/all-time-high-for-gold-incoming.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/all-time-high-for-gold-incoming" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-05-26 15:56&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;although gold already did a lot since this post - this is just the beginning ✨&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;persistent high inflation is here to stay&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;FIAT currencies will continue to devalue, specially with the massive government debit refinancing &amp;amp; further interest rate cuts&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/although-gold-already-did-a-lot-since-this-post-this-is-just" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-21 17:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;re-iterating on the 1.5 month old thread 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;inflation is still here to stay and gold is still yet to do something - but it sure will&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/re-iterating-on-the-1-5-month-old-thread.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/re-iterating-on-the-1-5-month-old-thread" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-12 22:52&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold is in the same price range as when the US dollar index was ≈97.7 on July 25th 2025&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if DXY hits ≈97.1 - expect gold to retest ≈$3440. this time with a stronger support build up by price action&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this could definitely be what pushes gold to a new all time high&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-is-in-the-same-price-range-as-when-the-us-dollar-index.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-is-in-the-same-price-range-as-when-the-us-dollar-index" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 17:34&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/all-time-high-for-gold-incoming" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/all-time-high-for-gold-incoming</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 13 Aug 2025 16:34:42 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>duration matching protects solvency and liquidity when yields shift</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/duration-matching-protects-solvency-and-liquidity-when</link><description>assets are financed by liabilities and equity. financial institutions like banks usually have small equity - so liabilities finance assets</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;assets are financed by liabilities and equity. financial institutions like banks usually have small equity - so liabilities finance assets&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/duration-matching-protects-solvency-and-liquidity-when.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/duration-matching-protects-solvency-and-liquidity-when" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-12 23:56&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;when liabilities become due you must ensure that assets can cover them&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this means ensuring that cashflow and asset monetization provides enough liquidity to settle the debt, plus a desired spread&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/when-liabilities-become-due-you-must-ensure-that-assets-can" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-12 23:57&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;most of financial institution&amp;#x27;s assets have an expiration date&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;these assets are mostly composed of loans, debt securities and money market instruments&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;still, all come with an expiration date&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/most-of-financial-institutions-assets-have-an-expiration" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-12 23:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;a bank may buy a US Treasury bond (UST) and hold it as an asset. at some point, that bond matures, thus terminating its existence&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/a-bank-may-buy-a-us-treasury-bond-ust-and-hold-it-as-an" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 00:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this newly acquired UST bond was financed with some liability of the bank&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;let&amp;#x27;s say the bank itself issued bonds with a smaller coupon than UST’s&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;thus, the bank used a liability to finance and asset and earns a spread&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-newly-acquired-ust-bond-was-financed-with-some" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 00:02&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;let&amp;#x27;s develop on this simple bank example&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;assume a brand-new bank with an empty balance sheet, no revenue, no deposits, no cashflow and no regulations&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the bank is about to finance its first asset - a UST bond with a liability - bonds issued by the bank&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/lets-develop-on-this-simple-bank-example" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 00:10&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;let&amp;#x27;s say the bank issued bonds (liability) at 3% and acquired UST bonds (asset) with a 4% yield&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;both assets and liabilities have a transaction amount of $100 million&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the bank uses the loan (issued bond) to purchase higher yield UST bonds, thus profiting a ≈1% spread&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/lets-say-the-bank-issued-bonds-liability-at-3-and-acquired" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 00:18&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;assume that both start simultaneously and mature in 1 year without any periodic payments&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this means that today the bank borrows $100M at 3% APY and invests it at 4%&lt;br/&gt; &lt;br/&gt;in exactly 1 year the bank receives $104M from the UST bond, repays $103M to bondholders and keeps $1M profit&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/assume-that-both-start-simultaneously-and-mature-in-1-year" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 00:18&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;what would happen if the bank issued bonds with a semi-annual coupon instead?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;semi-anual coupon means that bondholders get 2 ≈1.5% interest payments in the year: at 6 months, and maturity&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;remember: the UST bond only has one payment - at maturity in 1 year (think zero-coupon)&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/what-would-happen-if-the-bank-issued-bonds-with-a-semi" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 00:20&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;now the bank has an issue - the 1.5% liability payment is in 6 months, while 4% yield from the asset financed by that liability only gets paid in 1 year&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;while the bank will have the money to pay in the future - it doesn&amp;#x27;t have it now&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/now-the-bank-has-an-issue-the-1-5-liability-payment-is-in-6" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 00:22&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the bank&amp;#x27;s only option now is to sell the UST bond they hold at the market price, and use the proceeds to settle the 1.5% semiannual coupon liability&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-banks-only-option-now-is-to-sell-the-ust-bond-they-hold" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 00:22&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;that&amp;#x27;s a problem because the market price of the bond may have fallen significantly and the rest of the bond payment - 1.5% coupon + principal needs to be re-financed at potentially unfavorable rates&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/thats-a-problem-because-the-market-price-of-the-bond-may" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 00:23&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;modified duration quantifies how much a bond’s price will change for a 1% change in bond yields&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;while the bond pays fix sums - its market value/price varies, so its yield is not fixed&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/modified-duration-quantifies-how-much-a-bonds-price-will" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 00:23&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;larger modified duration value means that the bond&amp;#x27;s price is more sensitive to changes in bond yields&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this makes sense. the longer the time to maturity - the longer the risk and term premia comes into play&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/larger-modified-duration-value-means-that-the-bonds-price-is" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 00:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the longer the bond&amp;#x27;s time to maturity - the more compounding of unfavorable yields the bond&amp;#x27;s price must incorporate&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the more technical term is discounting, but compounding of unfavorable yields may help in bulging the mental model for what happens&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-longer-the-bonds-time-to-maturity-the-more-compounding" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 00:25&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;regarding 1 year vs 30 year bond - imagine yields rise by 2%:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ the price of the bond maturing in 1 year declines by discounting those 2% from 1 year of cashflows&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ a 30 year bond discounts for 30 years of cashflows&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/regarding-1-year-vs-30-year-bond-imagine-yields-rise-by-2" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 00:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;since a 30 year bond discounts 30 years of cashflows and those cashflows directly incorporate this compounding yield - its price moves more with yields than a comparable, shorter time to maturity bond&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/since-a-30-year-bond-discounts-30-years-of-cashflows-and" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 00:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;duration matching protects liquidity and solvency by modulating yield shift effects on the value of assets and liabilities&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/duration-matching-protects-liquidity-and-solvency-by" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 00:29&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;duration matching protects:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ liquidity via cashflow modulation, by helping liability cashflows match asset cashflows&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ solvency via asset and liability value modulation, by reducing asset value loss when yields fall and reducing liability value loss when yields raise&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/duration-matching-protects" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 00:30&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this is why duration matching is key for financial institutions&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is also the reason why it&amp;#x27;s generally not a good idea for governments to refinance long-term debt with short-term debt&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this shortens the duration of both - government liabilities and market&amp;#x27;s assets&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-is-why-duration-matching-is-key-for-financial" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 02:02&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the US treasury is doing exactly that - issuing short-term debt to retire/repurchased long-term debt&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;that&amp;#x27;s effectively refinancing longer-term debt with shorter-term debt. this shorter-term debt will also need to be refinanced, but now much sooner&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-us-treasury-is-doing-exactly-that-issuing-short-term.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-us-treasury-is-doing-exactly-that-issuing-short-term" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 20:50&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/duration-matching-protects-solvency-and-liquidity-when" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/duration-matching-protects-solvency-and-liquidity-when</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 13 Aug 2025 19:50:30 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Bitcoin is still in a weekly uptrend it must either go up or down to ≈$109500 - a strong weekly support</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-is-still-in-a-weekly-uptrend-it-must-either-go-up-or</link><description>two factors in play here:  1️⃣ USD index - inverse correlation 2️⃣ Global liquidity- correlation  keep watching central bank's open market operations &amp; balance sheets</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;two factors in play here:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ USD index - inverse correlation&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Global liquidity- correlation&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;keep watching central bank&amp;#x27;s open market operations &amp;amp; balance sheets&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/bitcoin-is-still-in-a-weekly-uptrend-it-must-either-go-up-or.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/bitcoin-is-still-in-a-weekly-uptrend-it-must-either-go-up-or" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-04 18:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;bitcoin went up 6% from the weekly support line&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;until the end of this month, bitcoin will either see a new all time high or retest the ≈$0.1095M support&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is the daily timescale of the same chart - the blue and red lines are weekly, green is daily&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;just a quick check-up&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/bitcoin-went-up-6-from-the-weekly-support-line.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/bitcoin-went-up-6-from-the-weekly-support-line" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-11 22:34&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;and there you go, Bitcoin reached a new all time high 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;notice how precisely it respect the trend lines&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/and-there-you-go-bitcoin-reached-a-new-all-time-high.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/and-there-you-go-bitcoin-reached-a-new-all-time-high" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 23:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;and soon the Eurozone will join the new BTC all time high party 🇪🇺🥳&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Bitcoin still hasn&amp;#x27;t seen a new high in EUR since January 2025&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this happened to due the relative appreciation apprtetiation of Euro against US dollar&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/and-soon-the-eurozone-will-join-the-new-btc-all-time-high.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/and-soon-the-eurozone-will-join-the-new-btc-all-time-high" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-13 23:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;and there it is - a new BTC all time high in Euro 🇪🇺🥳&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/and-there-it-is-a-new-btc-all-time-high-in-euro.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/and-there-it-is-a-new-btc-all-time-high-in-euro" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-14 11:23&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-is-still-in-a-weekly-uptrend-it-must-either-go-up-or" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-is-still-in-a-weekly-uptrend-it-must-either-go-up-or</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 14 Aug 2025 10:23:27 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🇯🇵 Yen's exchange rate stabilization is a responsibility of the Minister of Finance (MoF)</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/yens-exchange-rate-stabilization-is-a-responsibility-of-the</link><description>MoF is also the holder of Japan's international reserves - not the Bank of Japan  so in Japan the government has significant responsibility for USD/JPY</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;MoF is also the holder of Japan&amp;#x27;s international reserves - not the Bank of Japan&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so in Japan the government has significant responsibility for USD/JPY&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/yens-exchange-rate-stabilization-is-a-responsibility-of-the.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/yens-exchange-rate-stabilization-is-a-responsibility-of-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-14 20:21&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this is nothing unusual though - many governments do this, and it&amp;#x27;s mostly towards stabilizing the exchange rate with USD&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;to a large extent this is a result US dollar&amp;#x27;s reserve currency status and its dominance in use for all sorts of financial transactions&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-is-nothing-unusual-though-many-governments-do-this-and" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-14 20:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;i wrote a thread about what it means for the US dollar to be the reserve currency from the perspective of demand and liquidity&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you can read it here:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/@1754940239-1.html" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/@1754940239-1.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/i-wrote-a-thread-about-what-it-means-for-the-us-dollar-to-be.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/i-wrote-a-thread-about-what-it-means-for-the-us-dollar-to-be" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-15 00:11&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/yens-exchange-rate-stabilization-is-a-responsibility-of-the" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/yens-exchange-rate-stabilization-is-a-responsibility-of-the</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 14 Aug 2025 23:11:25 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>ECB recorded an €8 billion loss in 2024 - what happens in that case?</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/ecb-recorded-an-8-billion-loss-in-2024-what-happens-in-that</link><description>that's a balance sheet question. to understand what happens we need to look into the operational or "business" model of the European Central Bank</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;that&amp;#x27;s a balance sheet question. to understand what happens we need to look into the operational or &amp;quot;business&amp;quot; model of the European Central Bank&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/ecb-recorded-an-8-billion-loss-in-2024-what-happens-in-that.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ecb-recorded-an-8-billion-loss-in-2024-what-happens-in-that" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-14 20:53&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇪🇺 ECB&amp;#x27;s &amp;quot;business model&amp;quot; is as follows:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➕ income: ECB creates money and invests it into financial assets (e.g.: FX, bonds, funds)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖expenses, such as operational expanses (e.g. staff), facility and open market operation expenses (e.g. TARGET)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;profit/loss = income - expenses&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ecbs-business-model-is-as-follows" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-14 20:55&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;ECB says that the loss will remain on the balance sheet and will be offset by future profits&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the loss happened because ECB spent more than earned. they did so by using cash, selling assets or increasing liabilities&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the net effect is the same: reduction in equity&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/ecb-says-that-the-loss-will-remain-on-the-balance-sheet-and.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ecb-says-that-the-loss-will-remain-on-the-balance-sheet-and" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-14 20:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;equity is the residual claim on assets after all liabilities are paid&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;equity = assets - liabilities&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so the ECB just covers the loss with their equity. this equity reduction is carried forward to be offset by future profits&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/equity-is-the-residual-claim-on-assets-after-all-liabilities" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-14 21:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;offsetting losses with future profits is explicitly allowed under Article 33 of Statute of ESCB &amp;amp; ECB&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;ESCB = ECB + EU National Central Banks (NCBs)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so this applies to both, the European Central Bank, and all EU National Central Banks&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/offsetting-losses-with-future-profits-is-explicitly-allowed.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/offsetting-losses-with-future-profits-is-explicitly-allowed" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-15 00:25&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/ecb-recorded-an-8-billion-loss-in-2024-what-happens-in-that" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/ecb-recorded-an-8-billion-loss-in-2024-what-happens-in-that</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 14 Aug 2025 23:25:54 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>weaker US dollar means more USD credit issuance abroad - here's why</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/weaker-us-dollar-means-more-usd-credit-issuance-abroad-heres</link><description>foreign banks frequently borrow USD through wholesale markets with a local currency denominated collateral  when USD depreciates against a local currency, offshore USD credit now has a reduced debt…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;foreign banks frequently borrow USD through wholesale markets with a local currency denominated collateral&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;when USD depreciates against a local currency, offshore USD credit now has a reduced debt service&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/weaker-us-dollar-means-more-usd-credit-issuance-abroad-heres.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/weaker-us-dollar-means-more-usd-credit-issuance-abroad-heres" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-15 01:05&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;bank&amp;#x27;s leverage ratios improve due to collateral appreciation, thus allowing them to borrow more USD&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;collateral here is the non-USD local currency, such as Yuan&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/banks-leverage-ratios-improve-due-to-collateral-appreciation" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-15 01:09&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so a weaker US dollar tends to increase global USD liquidity&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in the SVAR, one standard deviation of US dollar&amp;#x27;s appreciation leads to a fall in cross-border USD lending. it reaches its bottom after 6 months and then eventually recovers after 2.5 years if no new shocks arrive&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/so-a-weaker-us-dollar-tends-to-increase-global-usd-liquidity.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-a-weaker-us-dollar-tends-to-increase-global-usd-liquidity" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-15 14:45&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/weaker-us-dollar-means-more-usd-credit-issuance-abroad-heres" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/weaker-us-dollar-means-more-usd-credit-issuance-abroad-heres</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 15 Aug 2025 13:45:15 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>outstanding cross-border bank credit reached a record of $34.7 trillion</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/outstanding-cross-border-bank-credit-reached-a-record-of-34</link><description>the latest increase was driven by increased lending to non-bank financial institutions (NBIFs), with most of the credit being issued in USD or EUR</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the latest increase was driven by increased lending to non-bank financial institutions (NBIFs), with most of the credit being issued in USD or EUR&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/outstanding-cross-border-bank-credit-reached-a-record-of-34.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/outstanding-cross-border-bank-credit-reached-a-record-of-34" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-15 21:35&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;bank credit continues to grow, and it will continue to grow&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it will almost certainly break the 7% annual growth resistance&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;central banks will expand balance sheets and lower interest rates to refinance the existing public and private debt&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;data source: BIS&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/bank-credit-continues-to-grow-and-it-will-continue-to-grow.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/bank-credit-continues-to-grow-and-it-will-continue-to-grow" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-15 21:39&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/outstanding-cross-border-bank-credit-reached-a-record-of-34" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/outstanding-cross-border-bank-credit-reached-a-record-of-34</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 15 Aug 2025 20:39:15 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>by "central bank" I'm frequently referring to the broader set of the legal framework behind the macro monetary policy</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/by-central-bank-im-frequently-referring-to-the-broader-set</link><description>in most countries central banks plays a key role, but they frequently co-exist in a larger network of institutions</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;in most countries central banks plays a key role, but they frequently co-exist in a larger network of institutions&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/by-central-bank-im-frequently-referring-to-the-broader-set.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/by-central-bank-im-frequently-referring-to-the-broader-set" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-16 11:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so it may not only be central bank setting the rates and affecting liquidity&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;for example, when US Treasury auctions bonds, they&amp;#x27;re both, temporarily reducing the effective amount of USD in circulation and providing more high-quanlity collateral&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-it-may-not-only-be-central-bank-setting-the-rates-and" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-16 11:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this collateral (US Treasury bonds) can then be used on wholesale debt markets to issue more credit&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;moreover, this collateral can be leveraged/rehypothecated, thus increasing liquidity&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;still, in the USA the Fed continues to dominate in importance&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-collateral-us-treasury-bonds-can-then-be-used-on" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-16 11:44&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;in Russia, besides the Bank of Russia there&amp;#x27;s also the National Wealth Fund (NWF), which is operated by the Ministry of Finance&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in China, there&amp;#x27;s policy banks, such as China Development Bank which are supported by PBoC&amp;#x27;s facilities&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/in-russia-besides-the-bank-of-russia-theres-also-the.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/in-russia-besides-the-bank-of-russia-theres-also-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-16 12:30&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/by-central-bank-im-frequently-referring-to-the-broader-set" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/by-central-bank-im-frequently-referring-to-the-broader-set</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 16 Aug 2025 11:30:06 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>credit continues to expand in the non-financial sector as well</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/credit-continues-to-expand-in-the-non-financial-sector-as</link><description>the attached graph also shows a turning point in 2008 - that's how the GFC was handled - by issuing more credit 😁  you can also see a steeper increase during COVID</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the attached graph also shows a turning point in 2008 - that&amp;#x27;s how the GFC was handled - by issuing more credit 😁&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you can also see a steeper increase during COVID&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/credit-continues-to-expand-in-the-non-financial-sector-as.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/credit-continues-to-expand-in-the-non-financial-sector-as" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-16 12:44&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;it&amp;#x27;s not just the governments and financial institutions who are dependent on debt refinancing - the private non-financial sector as well&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;remember than more than 70% of credit issuance is for servicing/refinancing of existing debt&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/its-not-just-the-governments-and-financial-institutions-who" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-16 12:44&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/credit-continues-to-expand-in-the-non-financial-sector-as" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/credit-continues-to-expand-in-the-non-financial-sector-as</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 16 Aug 2025 11:44:57 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>USD cross-border bank credit grew by $800 billion in Q1 2025</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/usd-cross-border-bank-credit-grew-by-800-billion-in-q1-2025</link><description>expect further increases for Q2 2025, due to the weak US dollar</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;expect further increases for Q2 2025, due to the weak US dollar&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/usd-cross-border-bank-credit-grew-by-800-billion-in-q1-2025.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/usd-cross-border-bank-credit-grew-by-800-billion-in-q1-2025" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-16 12:42&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;i wrote a thread explaining why weaker USD means more credit/loans issued in USD, thus driving up global liquidity&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you can read it here: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/@1755216337-1.html" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/@1755216337-1.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/i-wrote-a-thread-explaining-why-weaker-usd-means-more-credit.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/i-wrote-a-thread-explaining-why-weaker-usd-means-more-credit" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-16 13:01&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/usd-cross-border-bank-credit-grew-by-800-billion-in-q1-2025" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/usd-cross-border-bank-credit-grew-by-800-billion-in-q1-2025</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 16 Aug 2025 12:01:21 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>stablecoin inflows lower 3M Treasury bill yields, while outflows raise yields by a larger amount</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/stablecoin-inflows-lower-3m-treasury-bill-yields-while</link><description>LP-IV estimates: ⏩ $3.5B inflows lower yields by ≈3 bp ⏪ $3.5B outflows raise the yields by ≈8 bp  inflow = mint outflow = redemption/burn</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;LP-IV estimates:&lt;br/&gt;⏩ $3.5B inflows lower yields by ≈3 bp&lt;br/&gt;⏪ $3.5B outflows raise the yields by ≈8 bp&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;inflow = mint&lt;br/&gt;outflow = redemption/burn&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/stablecoin-inflows-lower-3m-treasury-bill-yields-while.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/stablecoin-inflows-lower-3m-treasury-bill-yields-while" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-16 22:14&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this is because a stablecoin mint/creation on-chain is the proxy for a T-bill purchase by the company issuing that stablecoin (e.g. Circle, Tether)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so stablecoin inflows proxy T-bill purchases, which raises their price and lowers the yield&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/this-is-because-a-stablecoin-mint-creation-on-chain-is-the.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-is-because-a-stablecoin-mint-creation-on-chain-is-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-17 15:34&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;stablecoin outflows proxy T-bill sales or reduced rolling&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;redemption/burn requires the stablecoin issuer to sell NOW, so large volumes means dealers/market makers will require a yield concession to warehouse those T-bills, as they are subject to balance sheet constraints&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/stablecoin-outflows-proxy-t-bill-sales-or-reduced-rolling.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/stablecoin-outflows-proxy-t-bill-sales-or-reduced-rolling" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-17 16:05&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;essentially many T-bill sales flood the market at once, so their price falls, thus causing a yield increase&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;selling T-bills is more urgent than buying - the stablecoin issuer cannot split it across auctions &amp;amp; dealers as easily, so the market yield change is larger on outflows&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/essentially-many-t-bill-sales-flood-the-market-at-once-so" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-17 16:14&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/stablecoin-inflows-lower-3m-treasury-bill-yields-while" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/stablecoin-inflows-lower-3m-treasury-bill-yields-while</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 17 Aug 2025 15:14:32 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>market makers and other dealers are also subject to regulatory balance sheet constraints</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/market-makers-and-other-dealers-are-also-subject-to</link><description>many of them are banks, so frameworks like Basel III apply. non-bank dealers have similar regulations  this means dealers are also subject to HQLA, haircuts, leverage limits and alike</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;many of them are banks, so frameworks like Basel III apply. non-bank dealers have similar regulations&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this means dealers are also subject to HQLA, haircuts, leverage limits and alike&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/market-makers-and-other-dealers-are-also-subject-to.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/market-makers-and-other-dealers-are-also-subject-to" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-17 16:42&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;bank dealers are subject to Basel III, non-bank dealers to other similar regulations&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;non-bank dealers don&amp;#x27;t have HQLA or leverage ratio (Basel), but they have net capital haircuts and other leverage/margin requirements&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so all dealers are subject to a similar set of regulations&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/bank-dealers-are-subject-to-basel-iii-non-bank-dealers-to" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-17 16:52&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;since all dealers are subject to functionally similar regulatory constraints, they&amp;#x27;re also subject to functionally similar set of balance sheet constraints&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is important to remember in the context of global liquidity, especially in terms of pro-cyclical effects&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/since-all-dealers-are-subject-to-functionally-similar" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-17 16:56&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;these regulatory constraints are synchronized to a significant degree across all jurisdictions&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this means that the financial regulations in EU &amp;amp; USA will have an analogous functional effect (although not the same!). so you can expect similar frameworks across several countries&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/these-regulatory-constraints-are-synchronized-to-a" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-17 17:26&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/market-makers-and-other-dealers-are-also-subject-to" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/market-makers-and-other-dealers-are-also-subject-to</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 17 Aug 2025 16:26:19 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>yield spreads between US Treasuries and riskier bonds mirror the price of Bitcoin</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/yield-spreads-between-us-treasuries-and-riskier-bonds-mirror</link><description>in practice, there is a correlation between them:  📈 yield spreads up = ⬇️ BTC down 📉 yield spreads down = ⬆️ BTC up  why? because those spreads are proxy for market's risk appetite</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;in practice, there is a correlation between them:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;📈 yield spreads up = ⬇️ BTC down&lt;br/&gt;📉 yield spreads down = ⬆️ BTC up&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;why? because those spreads are proxy for market&amp;#x27;s risk appetite&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/yield-spreads-between-us-treasuries-and-riskier-bonds-mirror.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/yield-spreads-between-us-treasuries-and-riskier-bonds-mirror" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-18 21:04&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;yield spread between a safe asset and a riskier one is an expression of the required return per unit of risk&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;higher yield spreads, means risker bonds are significantly cheaper than US Treasury bonds, thus the market is valuing safe assets with a premium - a &amp;quot;risk-off&amp;quot; signal&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/yield-spread-between-a-safe-asset-and-a-riskier-one-is-an" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-18 21:07&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;a lower yield spread means that the market requires less return per unit of risk&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;lower yield spreads means that US Treasuries have a small premium over riskier bonds, thus the market is attributing a smaller premium to safe assets - a &amp;quot;risk-on&amp;quot; signal&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/a-lower-yield-spread-means-that-the-market-requires-less" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-18 21:09&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;thus, you interpret yield spreads between US Treasuries and riskier bonds as:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;📈 increasing/high yield spread = risk-off&lt;br/&gt;📉 lowering/low yield spread = risk-on&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/thus-you-interpret-yield-spreads-between-us-treasuries-and" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-18 21:12&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;if you overlay Bitcoin&amp;#x27;s price history over those yield spreads, you will notice a significant level of correlation&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;⬆️ Bitcoin appreciates when spreads are lowering and/or low&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;⬇️ Bitcoin depreciates when spreads are increasing and/or high&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;makes sense - Bitcoin is a risk asset&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/if-you-overlay-bitcoins-price-history-over-those-yield" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-18 21:14&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so when market signals a higher risk appetite - Bitcoin tends to see inflows&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;when market is more risk-averse - bitcoin tends to see outflows, alongside other risk assets&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you can use the US Treasury/riskier bonds yield spreads to understand BTC&amp;#x27;s trend direction. it&amp;#x27;s an alpha&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-when-market-signals-a-higher-risk-appetite-bitcoin-tends" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-18 21:20&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/yield-spreads-between-us-treasuries-and-riskier-bonds-mirror" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/yield-spreads-between-us-treasuries-and-riskier-bonds-mirror</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 18 Aug 2025 20:20:17 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>there should be more blockchains running over mesh technologies like LoRA</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/there-should-be-more-blockchains-running-over-mesh</link><description>this way you can keep the consensus and payments running even when internet is down  polynomial commitments (ZK) can be used to store-and-forward transactions</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this way you can keep the consensus and payments running even when internet is down&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;polynomial commitments (ZK) can be used to store-and-forward transactions&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/there-should-be-more-blockchains-running-over-mesh.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/there-should-be-more-blockchains-running-over-mesh" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-19 08:52&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;you can use something like meshtastic to easily setup a network of end nodes and relays&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this also enables additional use-cases, like verifiable geolocation/proximity, and locale-restricted access&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/you-can-use-something-like-meshtastic-to-easily-setup-a" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-19 08:52&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;electromagnetic waves propagate at a ≈constant speed (speed of light), which means that you can estimate the distance between two communicating end nodes, or between a node and a relay&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;similar approaches are used mitigate against range extender attacks for remote car unlocking&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/electromagnetic-waves-propagate-at-a-constant-speed-speed-of" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-19 08:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;i just ran across meshtastic now, so cannot attest to the feasibility of implementing LoRA networks with it - but from the documentation it looks straightforward&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you can even write your code in Python! 🐍&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/i-just-ran-across-meshtastic-now-so-cannot-attest-to-the.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/i-just-ran-across-meshtastic-now-so-cannot-attest-to-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-19 08:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/there-should-be-more-blockchains-running-over-mesh" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/there-should-be-more-blockchains-running-over-mesh</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 19 Aug 2025 07:54:57 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>here's what yield spreads are saying about Bitcoin</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/heres-what-yield-spreads-are-saying-about-bitcoin</link><description>≈3-3.40 is an important historical band which served as support bottom several times, including during COVID, and partly during the 2008 GFC  so far it looks like a trend-reversal in the short-term,…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;≈3-3.40 is an important historical band which served as support bottom several times, including during COVID, and partly during the 2008 GFC&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so far it looks like a trend-reversal in the short-term, with the spreads heading up&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/heres-what-yield-spreads-are-saying-about-bitcoin.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/heres-what-yield-spreads-are-saying-about-bitcoin" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-19 10:25&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the yield spreads may also start an almost vertical uptrend on a monthly timescale - this usually means a financial crisis to some degree&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;that&amp;#x27;s probably not happening in the next 3 months though, as you can expect Federal Reserve to decrease interest rates and/or employ QE&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-yield-spreads-may-also-start-an-almost-vertical-uptrend" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-19 10:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;in the short-term, lower rates and/or QE means easier funding conditions, so more positions will get to be refinanced&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/in-the-short-term-lower-rates-and-or-qe-means-easier-funding" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-19 10:30&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;however, eventually yield spreads will raise with high velocity. this is the larger financial crisis part of the cycle. there you will also see lower rates and more QE&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/however-eventually-yield-spreads-will-raise-with-high" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-19 10:30&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;QE also removes safe collateral from the market, mainly US Treasury bills, notes and bonds. this safe collateral is the backbone of wholesale debt markets, where financial institutions, including commercial and central banks finance and re-finance their positions&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/qe-also-removes-safe-collateral-from-the-market-mainly-us" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-19 10:36&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the global financial system depends on the abundance of this collateral, otherwise - defaults, margin calls, etc&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i wrote a thread/article explaining how US Treasuries are the dominant collateral in short-term wholesale debt markets (e.g. repo). read here: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/@1751726431-1.html" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/@1751726431-1.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-global-financial-system-depends-on-the-abundance-of-this" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-19 10:40&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the US Treasury may also issue more debt to increase the supply of safe assets, thus offsetting the compression shock&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;end result: more safe assets/prime collateral provided to markets. remember that the newly issued treasuries are likely to be rehypothecated several times&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-us-treasury-may-also-issue-more-debt-to-increase-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-19 10:44&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;initially QE may only increase base money supply - as commercial banks reserve balances get credited by the Central Bank&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if the Central Bank purchases assets from non-bank financial institutions, then broad money increases directly as well, as deposits increase&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/initially-qe-may-only-increase-base-money-supply-as" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-19 10:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;even if it doesn&amp;#x27;t happen directly at the start - eventually QE also increases broad money, due to reduced balance sheet constraints and an increase in cash reserves, which needs to be invested ASAP. this leads to more lending and asset purchases&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/even-if-it-doesnt-happen-directly-at-the-start-eventually-qe" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-19 11:11&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;US Treasury debt is likely to be among the assets purchased by those same banks that received QE funds from the central bank. so central bank&amp;#x27;s QE injection may be used to purchase US Treasury debt at auctions, thus effectively monetizing the government debt 😁&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/us-treasury-debt-is-likely-to-be-among-the-assets-purchased" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-19 11:14&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;eventually this carry trade unwinds, and yield spreads soar. balance sheet constrains, existing positions get too expensive too roll-over/re-finance that’s where you get the big(er) financial crisis&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;and then you get more QE/lower rates to address that&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/eventually-this-carry-trade-unwinds-and-yield-spreads-soar" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-19 11:17&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;cryptocurrency prices perform well when yield spreads are low/decreasing and bad when yield spreads are high/increasing&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is specifically true when you analyze it at a higher timeframe - think monthly timescale instead of daily one. and the larger the spike/change&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/cryptocurrency-prices-perform-well-when-yield-spreads-are.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/cryptocurrency-prices-perform-well-when-yield-spreads-are" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-19 11:18&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/heres-what-yield-spreads-are-saying-about-bitcoin" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/heres-what-yield-spreads-are-saying-about-bitcoin</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 19 Aug 2025 10:18:29 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>it's NOT yet the top of the cycle for equities, cryptocurrencies and other risk assets. here’s why</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/its-not-yet-the-top-of-the-cycle-for-equities</link><description>1️⃣ US Treasury is issuing more debt  2️⃣ in the next months I expect the Fed to cut rates and/or introduce some form of QE  3️⃣ weaker USD means more cross-border USD credit</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;1️⃣ US Treasury is issuing more debt&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ in the next months I expect the Fed to cut rates and/or introduce some form of QE&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ weaker USD means more cross-border USD credit&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/its-not-yet-the-top-of-the-cycle-for-equities.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/its-not-yet-the-top-of-the-cycle-for-equities" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-20 20:29&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;a lot of these US treasury purchases will be financed with short-term rolling debt (e.g. repo)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the newly issued Treasuries themselves will be used as collateral to borrow cash, many times over via rehypothecation&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/a-lot-of-these-us-treasury-purchases-will-be-financed-with" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-20 20:33&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;once Fed cuts interest rates, more borrowing will occur, thus expanding broad money&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it will also lower T-bill yields short-term, as the prices are bid up due to a lower risk-free rate&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/once-fed-cuts-interest-rates-more-borrowing-will-occur-thus" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-20 20:34&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;once Fed does QE, reserve account balances increase, thus directly increasing base money&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;broad money either increases indirectly or directly if the Fed credits a non-bank institution&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/once-fed-does-qe-reserve-account-balances-increase-thus" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-20 20:35&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;i covered more this aspect of QE in my thread about how to use yield spreads to reason about future Bitcoin price and cycles&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you can read it here: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/@1755595543-1.html" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/@1755595543-1.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/i-covered-more-this-aspect-of-qe-in-my-thread-about-how-to" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-20 20:35&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;weaker USD, means appreciation of FX currencies and since many cross-border bank loans are collateralized with a local currency - solvency ratios improve, thus increasing balance sheet capacity for more USD credit&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this means an increase in broad money&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/weaker-usd-means-appreciation-of-fx-currencies-and-since" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-20 20:35&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;i explained how weaker US dollar increases cross-border USD liquidity in this thread: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/@1755216337-1.html" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/@1755216337-1.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/i-explained-how-weaker-us-dollar-increases-cross-border-usd" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-20 20:35&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;in conjunction, this creates an upward pressure in the global liquidity for the near future&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;of course, this also builds up on leverage in the form of market-wide carry trades, and duration mismatching in the form of rolling over of debt by the Treasury&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/in-conjunction-this-creates-an-upward-pressure-in-the-global" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-20 20:36&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;eventually, the carry will unwind and debt needs to be refinanced&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;more QE-like measures will be taken, but eventually it won&amp;#x27;t be enough to prevent deleveraging/burst. this means defaults, margin calls, etc. the latter will likely be addressed by another form of QE&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/eventually-the-carry-will-unwind-and-debt-needs-to-be" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-20 20:36&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;still, at some point QE&amp;#x27;s won&amp;#x27;t be able to prevent a prolonged negative impact on the market - the top of the cycle or close to it&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;we&amp;#x27;re not there yet&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/still-at-some-point-qes-wont-be-able-to-prevent-a-prolonged" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-20 20:42&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the next burst in global liquidity/larger financial crisis will only happen after several more rounds of QE&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the next round of QE is close, but hasn’t even started yet and rates were not cut. however, the next big debt refinancing is underway&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-next-burst-in-global-liquidity-larger-financial-crisis" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-20 20:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the specific QE policies will vary, but it will probably include an MBS-style QE like in QE1 2008. this will lower mortgage rates short-term&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I explained why in this thread: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/@1754148538-1.html" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/@1754148538-1.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-specific-qe-policies-will-vary-but-it-will-probably" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-20 20:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/its-not-yet-the-top-of-the-cycle-for-equities" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/its-not-yet-the-top-of-the-cycle-for-equities</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 20 Aug 2025 19:43:57 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>when a bank buys an asset from a non-bank it creates broad money</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/when-a-bank-buys-an-asset-from-a-non-bank-it-creates-broad</link><description>if a commercial bank buys a US Treasury bill from you, it will pay you by create a new deposit into your account  so effectively the bank pays you by creating new digital currency and crediting it…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;if a commercial bank buys a US Treasury bill from you, it will pay you by create a new deposit into your account&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so effectively the bank pays you by creating new digital currency and crediting it into your account&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/when-a-bank-buys-an-asset-from-a-non-bank-it-creates-broad.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/when-a-bank-buys-an-asset-from-a-non-bank-it-creates-broad" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-22 12:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the bank doesn&amp;#x27;t need to have the money to pay you for the T-bill,  as that money will be created and deposited into your account&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;on the bank&amp;#x27;s sheet side it works: its assets and liabilities increase in the same amount&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-bank-doesnt-need-to-have-the-money-to-pay-you-for-the-t" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-22 13:03&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;here, the bank&amp;#x27;s assets increase by the value of the T-bill and liabilities increase by the amount that they paid you for it. in the balance sheet the T-bill will have the same value as what the bank paid you/deposited into your account&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/here-the-banks-assets-increase-by-the-value-of-the-t-bill" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-22 13:04&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;let&amp;#x27;s say the bank bought a T-bill from you for $1000. for this, they &amp;quot;created $1000&amp;quot; and deposited them into your account. bank’s balance sheet:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ Assets: +$1000 (the T-bill)&lt;br/&gt;➖ Liabilities: +$1000 (the deposit/payment to you)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the key here is that you are a NON-bank&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/lets-say-the-bank-bought-a-t-bill-from-you-for-1000-for-this" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-22 13:06&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;when banks buy assets from other banks - new deposits do not get created, as the payment happens by moving funds between the commercial bank&amp;#x27;s reserve accounts at the central bank&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;thus, it&amp;#x27;s base money movements/reallocation, not creation&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/when-banks-buy-assets-from-other-banks-new-deposits-do-not" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-22 13:06&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;if it&amp;#x27;s the central bank buying assets from other banks, such as in QE - then the central bank also creates the deposit &amp;quot;out of thin air&amp;quot;, thus effectively paying for the assets to the commercial bank with a newly created deposit into their reserve account. base money increases&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/if-its-the-central-bank-buying-assets-from-other-banks-such" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-22 13:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;also note that it&amp;#x27;s not just commercial banks that have accounts at the central bank. it varies by jurisdiction, but other entities also have accounts at the central bank&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;for example, in the US the Treasury has an account at the Fed - the Treasury General Account (TGA)&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/also-note-that-its-not-just-commercial-banks-that-have" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-22 13:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;reserve accounts at the central bank are important to understand the mechanics of how asset purchase happens. generally speaking, if an institution has an account at the central bank - reserve or other deposit account, they will use it whenever possible to settle payment&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/reserve-accounts-at-the-central-bank-are-important-to" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-22 13:18&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;effectively this means that if both parties involved in the transaction have an account at the central bank, they will will use it to settle payments&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/effectively-this-means-that-if-both-parties-involved-in-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-22 13:19&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;generally speaking:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ transaction between central bank accounts = base money reallocated, decreased or increased&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ transaction between non-central bank accounts = broad money reallocated, decreased or increased&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/generally-speaking" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-22 13:25&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this is also why commercial banks purchasing government debt securities, such as Treasury bills may be effectively monetizing that debt&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-is-also-why-commercial-banks-purchasing-government-debt" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-22 13:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/when-a-bank-buys-an-asset-from-a-non-bank-it-creates-broad" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/when-a-bank-buys-an-asset-from-a-non-bank-it-creates-broad</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 22 Aug 2025 12:27:09 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>repo rates increase and borrowing decreases in quarter-ends</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/repo-rates-increase-and-borrowing-decreases-in-quarter-ends</link><description>this includes the upcoming month of September. in addition, September 15th the corporate tax limit in the US  this reduces global liquidity, so asset prices tend to fall</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this includes the upcoming month of September. in addition, September 15th the corporate tax limit in the US&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this reduces global liquidity, so asset prices tend to fall&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/repo-rates-increase-and-borrowing-decreases-in-quarter-ends.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/repo-rates-increase-and-borrowing-decreases-in-quarter-ends" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-22 13:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this is one of the reasons why September is historically a bad month for Bitcoin&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/this-is-one-of-the-reasons-why-september-is-historically-a.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-is-one-of-the-reasons-why-september-is-historically-a" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-22 13:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;moreover, currently the US Treasury is issuing debt and cash at ON RRP is running low. MMF, dealers and banks purchase those T-bills. if they do not have cash in ON RRP, it will be financed by outflows from bank reserve accounts into TGA&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/moreover-currently-the-us-treasury-is-issuing-debt-and-cash" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-22 13:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the funding could also come from Fed’s facilities, like the SRF or OMO&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;however, current SRF rate is 4.5%, which is above the yield on T-bills, and Fed is still officially in QT, so no large-scale, longer-term liquidity injections via open market operations&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-funding-could-also-come-from-feds-facilities-like-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-22 14:02&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Standing Repo Facility (SRF) is a policy rate set by the Fed, according to the target rate. so unless the target rate is decreased, SRF rate is unlikely to be reduced&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this situation is putting pressure on the Fed to decrease interest rates and start QE soon&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/standing-repo-facility-srf-is-a-policy-rate-set-by-the-fed" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-22 14:04&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;TGA fluctuations must be offset by another asset or liability from Fed&amp;#x27;s balance sheet&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;⬆️ TGA increase = liability down or asset up&lt;br/&gt;⬇️ TGA decrease = liability up or asset down&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;found this balance sheet model in Fed&amp;#x27;s notes, and it&amp;#x27;s a good visual aid to this thread&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/tga-fluctuations-must-be-offset-by-another-asset-or.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/tga-fluctuations-must-be-offset-by-another-asset-or" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-23 13:47&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/repo-rates-increase-and-borrowing-decreases-in-quarter-ends" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/repo-rates-increase-and-borrowing-decreases-in-quarter-ends</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 23 Aug 2025 12:47:30 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>finance has A LOT to learn from engineering - especially in terms or standardization 😭</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/finance-has-a-lot-to-learn-from-engineering-especially-in</link><description>e.g. you're reading a british author, you may find "high street banks". it makes you think that there are also low street banks, or at least middle street banks, but noooo</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;e.g. you&amp;#x27;re reading a british author, you may find &amp;quot;high street banks&amp;quot;. it makes you think that there are also low street banks, or at least middle street banks, but noooo&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/finance-has-a-lot-to-learn-from-engineering-especially-in.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/finance-has-a-lot-to-learn-from-engineering-especially-in" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-24 13:53&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;same for wall street, main street, hawkish, dovish, bull, bear, cat bounce - whattt ?????&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is neither about civil engineering nor wildlife reserve 🤨&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/same-for-wall-street-main-street-hawkish-dovish-bull-bear" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-24 13:59&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/finance-has-a-lot-to-learn-from-engineering-especially-in" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/finance-has-a-lot-to-learn-from-engineering-especially-in</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 24 Aug 2025 12:59:51 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>ECB plans to limit the amount of digital Euro CBDC a wallet can hold</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/ecb-plans-to-limit-the-amount-of-digital-euro-cbdc-a-wallet</link><description>this means you will be limited the amount of digital EUR you can own  this applies only to retail European Central Bank CBDC, not wholesale. the idea is to prevent excessive outflows of deposits…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this means you will be limited the amount of digital EUR you can own&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this applies only to retail European Central Bank CBDC, not wholesale. the idea is to prevent excessive outflows of deposits from banks&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/ecb-plans-to-limit-the-amount-of-digital-euro-cbdc-a-wallet.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ecb-plans-to-limit-the-amount-of-digital-euro-cbdc-a-wallet" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-25 23:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;retail CBDC is central bank money, so converting bank deposits into digital Euro changes the composition of the monetary base - fewer commercial bank reserves at the central bank, more central bank CBDC liabilities&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;retail CBDC conversions settle in reserves&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/retail-cbdc-is-central-bank-money-so-converting-bank" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-26 01:56&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/ecb-plans-to-limit-the-amount-of-digital-euro-cbdc-a-wallet" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/ecb-plans-to-limit-the-amount-of-digital-euro-cbdc-a-wallet</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 26 Aug 2025 00:56:39 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>wholesale CBDC vs retail CBDC - what's the difference?</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/wholesale-cbdc-vs-retail-cbdc-whats-the-difference</link><description>there's two types of central bank digital currencies (CBDC): retail CBDC and wholesale CBDC  ➖ retail CBDC = used for ordinary transactions. digital version of the cash  ➖ wholesale CBDC = used for…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;there&amp;#x27;s two types of central bank digital currencies (CBDC): retail CBDC and wholesale CBDC&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ retail CBDC = used for ordinary transactions. digital version of the cash&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ wholesale CBDC = used for interbank/financial institution settlement. tokenized central bank reserves&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/wholesale-cbdc-vs-retail-cbdc-whats-the-difference.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/wholesale-cbdc-vs-retail-cbdc-whats-the-difference" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-27 22:07&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;retail CBDC will be used for day-to-day payments, similar to the ones you do with with a credit card. this is the type of CBDC you can use for business and consumer transactions, such as paying for a supermarket purchase&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/retail-cbdc-will-be-used-for-day-to-day-payments-similar-to" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-27 22:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;retail CBDC is the digital version of currency - a liability of the central bank in the balance sheet&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/retail-cbdc-is-the-digital-version-of-currency-a-liability.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/retail-cbdc-is-the-digital-version-of-currency-a-liability" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-27 22:11&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;wholesale CBDC will be used by financial institutions only, such as commercial and central banks for interbank and market settlement&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;wholesale CBDC will only be transacted between select financial institutions - it&amp;#x27;s not something you&amp;#x27;d use as a regular business or consumer&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/wholesale-cbdc-will-be-used-by-financial-institutions-only" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-27 22:12&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;thus, wholesale CBDC is a tokenized/digital version of central bank reserves used by the financial market infrastructure (FMI) and banks&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it also lives on the liability side of the central bank&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/thus-wholesale-cbdc-is-a-tokenized-digital-version-of" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-27 22:17&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/wholesale-cbdc-vs-retail-cbdc-whats-the-difference" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/wholesale-cbdc-vs-retail-cbdc-whats-the-difference</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 27 Aug 2025 21:17:19 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>91% of central banks are working on CBDCs, but not on a public blockchain</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/91-of-central-banks-are-working-on-cbdcs-but-not-on-a-public</link><description>85 out of 93 central banks (≈94% of global economic output) are engaged in some form of CBDC work  however, don't expect CBDCs to be implemented on permissionless blockchains like Ethereum</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;85 out of 93 central banks (≈94% of global economic output) are engaged in some form of CBDC work&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;however, don&amp;#x27;t expect CBDCs to be implemented on permissionless blockchains like Ethereum&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/91-of-central-banks-are-working-on-cbdcs-but-not-on-a-public.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/91-of-central-banks-are-working-on-cbdcs-but-not-on-a-public" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-28 00:11&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;only 6% of advanced economies (AE) central banks and 40% of emerging economies (EM) central banks are considering distributed ledger technology (DLT) as an implementation layer for retail CBDCs&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;here, consider DLT = blockchain&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/only-6-of-advanced-economies-ae-central-banks-and-40-of.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/only-6-of-advanced-economies-ae-central-banks-and-40-of" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-28 09:05&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;&amp;gt;50% of central banks in both, advanced and emerging economies are considering using DLT for wholesale CBDCs&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this means that wholesale CBDC is likely to be implemented using some form of blockchain technology - much more likely than the retail CBDC&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/50-of-central-banks-in-both-advanced-and-emerging-economies.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/50-of-central-banks-in-both-advanced-and-emerging-economies" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-28 09:07&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;however, even if CBDCs are implemented using blockchain - it&amp;#x27;s unlikely to be a public, permissionless blockchain like Ethereum&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/however-even-if-cbdcs-are-implemented-using-blockchain-its" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-28 09:12&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;&amp;gt;80% of central banks plan to operate the DLT/blockchain for wholesale CBDCs themselves, hinting an in-house blockchain solution, and not a public and permissionless ledger&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/80-of-central-banks-plan-to-operate-the-dlt-blockchain-for" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-28 09:13&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/91-of-central-banks-are-working-on-cbdcs-but-not-on-a-public" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/91-of-central-banks-are-working-on-cbdcs-but-not-on-a-public</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 28 Aug 2025 08:13:34 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>gold revaluation will NOT solve the US debt problem</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/gold-revaluation-will-not-solve-the-us-debt-problem</link><description>the gain would cover less than 3% (≈1 trillion USD) of the outstanding national debt  most recently it took ≈9 months for the US government to accumulate $1T in new debt  previously, $1T in new debt…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the gain would cover less than 3% (≈1 trillion USD) of the outstanding national debt&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;most recently it took ≈9 months for the US government to accumulate $1T in new debt&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;previously, $1T in new debt was added in ≈100 days&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-revaluation-will-not-solve-the-us-debt-problem.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-revaluation-will-not-solve-the-us-debt-problem" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-04 23:16&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold revaluation proceeds are not necessarily used to cover sovereign debt&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;central banks of Italy, Germany, Lebanon, South Africa &amp;amp; Curaçao and Sint Maarten reevaluated gold in the past, with some using the proceeds to finance the government, while others the central bank&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-revaluation-proceeds-are-not-necessarily-used-to-cover.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-revaluation-proceeds-are-not-necessarily-used-to-cover" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-04 23:29&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;assuming all of the gold revaluation gains get credited to the Treasury&amp;#x27;s general account to retire government debt (e.g. by re-purchasing US Treasury bonds from the market) - that would cover a mere ≈3% of outstanding US government debt&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/assuming-all-of-the-gold-revaluation-gains-get-credited-to" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-05 00:30&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;persistent deficits &amp;amp; refinancing needs will add $1 trillion of new debt in less than a year&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so gold revaluation is insignificant for US federal government&amp;#x27;s debt problem&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/persistent-deficits-refinancing-needs-will-add-1-trillion-of" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-05 00:34&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;retiring debt with gold revaluation would change the composition of liquidity:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ less US government bonds (safe collateral)&lt;br/&gt;➕ more base money (reserves) and/or broad money (deposits)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so the end result is more base and/or broad money, but less prime/repo-eligible collateral&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/retiring-debt-with-gold-revaluation-would-change-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-05 00:38&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;collateral gets reused/rehypothecated, reserves don&amp;#x27;t&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;dealers re-pledge/re-use Treasuries, e.g. through repo and reverse repo. thus, the financing capacity of Treasury bills, notes and bonds exceeds their market value&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/collateral-gets-reused-rehypothecated-reserves-dont" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-05 00:40&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;to estimate the maximum liquidity that can be added by a bond divide the market value by its haircut (e.g. effective repo haircut on that bond)&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/to-estimate-the-maximum-liquidity-that-can-be-added-by-a" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-05 00:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;maximum liquidity added by bond = market value/haircut &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so a Treasury security worth $1000 with a haircut of 2%, can create up to $50000 in new credit/liquidity&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;computed using the formula above: 1000/0.02=50000&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/maximum-liquidity-added-by-bond-market-value-haircut" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-05 00:47&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;thus, a 30 year Treasury bond trading at par (i.e. market value = face value = $1000) can create up to $50K of new liquidity/credit!&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you cannot leverage as much with reserve money. so a $1000 bond can create more liquidity than $1000 cash/reserves&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/thus-a-30-year-treasury-bond-trading-at-par-i-e-market-value.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/thus-a-30-year-treasury-bond-trading-at-par-i-e-market-value" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-05 00:50&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;current tri-party repo haircut average for Treasury collateral is 2%, supervisory is 4% (Capital Adequacy Requirements) &lt;br/&gt; &lt;br/&gt;with a 2% haircut the collateral funding multiplier is 50x, with a 4% haircut - 25x&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the smaller the haircut - the larger the maximum rehypothecated credit&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/current-tri-party-repo-haircut-average-for-treasury.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/current-tri-party-repo-haircut-average-for-treasury" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-05 13:40&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;in non-centrally cleared bilateral repos (NCCBR) the Treasury haircut is mostly 0%, and a significant portion has negative haircuts - meaning that more money is lent in the repo that the market value of the Treasury collateral&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/in-non-centrally-cleared-bilateral-repos-nccbr-the-treasury.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/in-non-centrally-cleared-bilateral-repos-nccbr-the-treasury" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-05 23:59&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;NCCBR are essentially bilateral OTC agreements - no central counterparty or tri-party custodian&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/nccbr-are-essentially-bilateral-otc-agreements-no-central" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-06 00:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;NCCBR users are mostly institutions part of the financial market infrastructure - such as dealers and hedge funds&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;they use NCCBR to manage their balance sheets and regulatory obligations. so a high need for Treasury collateral may drive the the haircuts negative&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/nccbr-users-are-mostly-institutions-part-of-the-financial" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-06 00:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;NCCBR participants are generally subject to regulations and balance sheet constraints - so don&amp;#x27;t think that null/negative haircuts means the collateral can be rehypothecated infinitely&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;these bilateral arrangements is where financial institutions manage their liquidity needs&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/nccbr-participants-are-generally-subject-to-regulations-and" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-06 00:02&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so if the US Treasury revaluated gold and used all those proceeds to repurchase/retire debt it will likely have an initial negative effect on the liquidity, due to contraction in safe collateral&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-if-the-us-treasury-revaluated-gold-and-used-all-those" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-06 00:03&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;while the haircut may also fall (upward pressure on liquidity), the volume reduction (downward pressure on liquidity) is likely to have more weight, due to global refinancing/liquidity needs&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/while-the-haircut-may-also-fall-upward-pressure-on-liquidity" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-06 00:05&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so assuming no sanitization - an initial reduction of liquidity may occur&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-assuming-no-sanitization-an-initial-reduction-of" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-06 00:06&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;in practice, some level of sanitization (direct or indirect) will occur, and that Treasury debt/safe collateral would likely be reintroduced back via Treasury issuance and/or Fed facilities within a year&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/in-practice-some-level-of-sanitization-direct-or-indirect" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-06 00:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;soon i&amp;#x27;ll write a thread on how central banks/governments reevaluate gold and how the monetary gains can be used to cover central bank and/or government debt&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i&amp;#x27;ll add a link to it in this thread once it’s ready&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/soon-ill-write-a-thread-on-how-central-banks-governments" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-06 00:10&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;in order to understand the mechanics of gold revaluation - it&amp;#x27;s important to understand the unique legal position of banks to issue broad money, and that their mode of operation differs greatly from non-credit issuance businesses&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/in-order-to-understand-the-mechanics-of-gold-revaluation-its" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-06 00:11&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;i wrote a thread explaining the business model of banks here: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/@1755863018-1.html" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/@1755863018-1.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the information in it is important to understand the balance sheet dynamics of gold reevaluation&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/i-wrote-a-thread-explaining-the-business-model-of-banks-here.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/i-wrote-a-thread-explaining-the-business-model-of-banks-here" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-06 00:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/gold-revaluation-will-not-solve-the-us-debt-problem" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/gold-revaluation-will-not-solve-the-us-debt-problem</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 05 Sep 2025 23:24:29 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>EU real estate prices will continue to increase</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/eu-real-estate-prices-will-continue-to-increase</link><description>with investment capital moving away from US to the EU, a significant portion of it will will flow into housing, thus pushing sale and rent prices up  specially true for high-demand areas, like…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;with investment capital moving away from US to the EU, a significant portion of it will will flow into housing, thus pushing sale and rent prices up&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;specially true for high-demand areas, like coastal &amp;amp; large cities&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/eu-real-estate-prices-will-continue-to-increase.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/eu-real-estate-prices-will-continue-to-increase" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-07 19:39&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this increase will be more accentuated in lower per-capita GDP countries - as cross-border capital flows in to fill the price gap&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;lower GDP + highly desired location is the recipe for higher yields 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you can observe this in countries like Portugal in the table below&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/this-increase-will-be-more-accentuated-in-lower-per-capita.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-increase-will-be-more-accentuated-in-lower-per-capita" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-07 19:46&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;remember that real estate runs on credit - and in the most basic approach - the bank happily finances 75% of the value of the property. this is true even if you&amp;#x27;re just starting&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;as you accumulate collateral/properties it becomes easier and easier, as you can cross-collateralize&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/remember-that-real-estate-runs-on-credit-and-in-the-most" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-07 19:49&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/eu-real-estate-prices-will-continue-to-increase" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/eu-real-estate-prices-will-continue-to-increase</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 07 Sep 2025 18:49:58 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>real estate is a great asset because banks lend ≈75% of its value</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/real-estate-is-a-great-asset-because-banks-lend-75-of-its</link><description>so if your property is worth $100K, you can borrow $75K against it at a low rate  the immovable property is used as collateral</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so if your property is worth $100K, you can borrow $75K against it at a low rate&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the immovable property is used as collateral&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/real-estate-is-a-great-asset-because-banks-lend-75-of-its.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/real-estate-is-a-great-asset-because-banks-lend-75-of-its" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-12 00:19&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;≈80% of lending in financial markets is collateral-based&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;financial institutions use government bonds as collateral for short-term loans&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you&amp;#x27;re using immovable property as collateral for a generally longer term-loan&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/80-of-lending-in-financial-markets-is-collateral-based" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-13 13:45&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;collateralized lending comes with smaller interest rates/financing cost because it&amp;#x27;s low risk for the lender&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if you default - the lender keeps your collateral &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;haircuts and spread are set sufficiently high to cover liquidity, term and market risks&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/collateralized-lending-comes-with-smaller-interest-rates" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-13 14:12&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this is why a 7 day Treasury bill-backed repo agreement may have 2% haircut and a 0.1% spread, while a 20 year immovable property collateralized loan a 25% haircut and a 2% spread&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the T-bill is more liquid, less volatile and the loan term is much shorter&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-is-why-a-7-day-treasury-bill-backed-repo-agreement-may" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-13 14:37&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so by using real estate as collateral you&amp;#x27;re just tapping into the existing low interest liquidity/credit line&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;at the same time the property earns a yield (e.g. via rents) and generally appreciates&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-by-using-real-estate-as-collateral-youre-just-tapping" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-13 14:38&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;as the immovable property appreciates, so do your assets and financing capacity. with a more valuable collateral asset - the bank will give a larger loan&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;increasing real estate purchase prices push rent prices up as well. so may increased interest rates, since it&amp;#x27;s harder to buy&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/as-the-immovable-property-appreciates-so-do-your-assets-and" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-13 14:40&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;given that housing is a core necessity for most combined with the willingness of banks to finance against immovable property creates a high persistent demand for real estate&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/given-that-housing-is-a-core-necessity-for-most-combined" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-13 14:55&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this makes immovable property a good hedge against inflation and economic downturn&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;price adjusts to value &amp;amp; while the composition of demand may change (e.g. shift towards smaller/cheaper units) - the demand for property will inherently remain high&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-makes-immovable-property-a-good-hedge-against-inflation" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-13 15:01&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/real-estate-is-a-great-asset-because-banks-lend-75-of-its" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/real-estate-is-a-great-asset-because-banks-lend-75-of-its</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 13 Sep 2025 14:01:32 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🇪🇺 The best countermeasure that EU can take is swapping US securities for Gold</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/the-best-countermeasure-that-eu-can-take-is-swapping-us</link><description>Gold is inversely correlated with USD. Such a decision can be done today and it will:  1️⃣be a response to the US 2️⃣increase value of EUR 3️⃣minimize consumer impact  Anything else will hurt the…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Gold is inversely correlated with USD. Such a decision can be done today and it will:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣be a response to the US&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣increase value of EUR&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣minimize consumer impact&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Anything else will hurt the economy&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-best-countermeasure-that-eu-can-take-is-swapping-us" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-04-03 17:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;since i&amp;#x27;ve written this, gold is up ≈16%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;≈25% if you count from the tariffs announcements on April 7th&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i will re-iterate that in order to protect the EUR the ECB should increase their onshore gold holdings&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/since-ive-written-this-gold-is-up-16.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/since-ive-written-this-gold-is-up-16" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-14 14:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/the-best-countermeasure-that-eu-can-take-is-swapping-us" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/the-best-countermeasure-that-eu-can-take-is-swapping-us</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 14 Sep 2025 13:28:36 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>gold is a great asset to hold for the next 5 years</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/gold-is-a-great-asset-to-hold-for-the-next-5-years</link><description>it's a hedge against the credit &amp; refinancing bubble of the US equity markets + government debt  but not only against USD - all FIAT &amp; risk assets including crypto</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;it&amp;#x27;s a hedge against the credit &amp;amp; refinancing bubble of the US equity markets + government debt&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;but not only against USD - all FIAT &amp;amp; risk assets including crypto&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-is-a-great-asset-to-hold-for-the-next-5-years" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-14 22:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the financial system infrastructure, including monetary policies of the central banks are correlated&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;they&amp;#x27;re heavily exposed to the same set of assets - a lot of which are USD-denominated&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is of course extremely pro-cyclical&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-financial-system-infrastructure-including-monetary" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-14 22:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;in addition to being a store of value, gold is also acting as an investment&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it&amp;#x27;s up ≈40% YTD&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is gold catching up to inflation and accumulated leverage&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/in-addition-to-being-a-store-of-value-gold-is-also-acting-as" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-14 22:52&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the financial system is heavily dependent on refinancing&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is true for both, governments and the public sector - especially the financial institutions&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;≈70% of all new credit is used for refinancing/repaying of existing maturing debt rather than novel financing&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-financial-system-is-heavily-dependent-on-refinancing" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-15 00:32&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;leverage and the carry trades eventually unwind&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;at some point there isn&amp;#x27;t enough on-demand liquidity and mass defaults, losses and insolvency occur&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is when the cycle tops/bubble pops&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/leverage-and-the-carry-trades-eventually-unwind" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-15 00:33&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/gold-is-a-great-asset-to-hold-for-the-next-5-years" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/gold-is-a-great-asset-to-hold-for-the-next-5-years</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 14 Sep 2025 23:33:30 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🇪🇺 ECB gained €10.5B on gold from 2023 to 2024</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/ecb-gained-10-5b-on-gold-from-2023-to-2024</link><description>2025 YTD running gains add another net positive ≈€10B &amp; likely to be higher by the year end's gold revaluation  that's an implied ≈8% yield on gold appreciation - much more than the ECB earned from…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;2025 YTD running gains add another net positive ≈€10B &amp;amp; likely to be higher by the year end&amp;#x27;s gold revaluation&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;that&amp;#x27;s an implied ≈8% yield on gold appreciation - much more than the ECB earned from other asset buckets&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/ecb-gained-10-5b-on-gold-from-2023-to-2024.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ecb-gained-10-5b-on-gold-from-2023-to-2024" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-15 20:52&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;to clarify: European Central Bank didn&amp;#x27;t increase its gold holdings, but the gold that ECB already owns (≈506 tonnes) increased in value, since gold&amp;#x27;s market price increased&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;ECB reevaluates gold at the end of every year and credits or debits the revelation account accordingly&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/to-clarify-european-central-bank-didnt-increase-its-gold" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-15 21:09&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/ecb-gained-10-5b-on-gold-from-2023-to-2024" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/ecb-gained-10-5b-on-gold-from-2023-to-2024</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 15 Sep 2025 20:09:33 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>ECB's legal framework forbids the use of gold revaluation proceeds to pay expenses or operating losses</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/ecbs-legal-framework-forbids-the-use-of-gold-revaluation</link><description>unrealized gains are not recognized as income and are instead credited to the revaluation account  revaluation account is under liability/equity on the ECB's balance sheet</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;unrealized gains are not recognized as income and are instead credited to the revaluation account&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;revaluation account is under liability/equity on the ECB&amp;#x27;s balance sheet&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/ecbs-legal-framework-forbids-the-use-of-gold-revaluation.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ecbs-legal-framework-forbids-the-use-of-gold-revaluation" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-16 12:49&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;moreover, as per Eurosystem&amp;#x27;s accounting framework unrealized gains are non-distributable and may only offset future unrealized losses on the same item&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/moreover-as-per-eurosystems-accounting-framework-unrealized.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/moreover-as-per-eurosystems-accounting-framework-unrealized" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-16 12:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this means the ECB can only use unrealized gold gains to cover/offset future unrealized losses on gold&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;these unrealized gains can neither offset an operational, nor a loss in another security bucket, such as FX&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-means-the-ecb-can-only-use-unrealized-gold-gains-to" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-16 12:52&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;thus, unrealized gold gains accumulate on the ECB&amp;#x27;s liability side, under the revaluation account, and the only way they can be debited (e.g. to cover expenses, or credit an NCB&amp;#x27;s reserve account) is:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ when the ECB sells the gold, thus turning an unrealized gain into a realized one&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ offset future losses in the gold bucket&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/thus-unrealized-gold-gains-accumulate-on-the-ecbs-liability.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/thus-unrealized-gold-gains-accumulate-on-the-ecbs-liability" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-16 12:55&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;after ECB&amp;#x27;s realized gains are booked to PnL, the ECB splits up the net profit as:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ up to 20% to the general reserve fund, which can be used to offset future PnL losses&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ the rest distributed to the NCB&amp;#x27;s, proportional to the National Central Bank&amp;#x27;s paid-up shares&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/after-ecbs-realized-gains-are-booked-to-pnl-the-ecb-splits.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/after-ecbs-realized-gains-are-booked-to-pnl-the-ecb-splits" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-16 12:57&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/ecbs-legal-framework-forbids-the-use-of-gold-revaluation" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/ecbs-legal-framework-forbids-the-use-of-gold-revaluation</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 16 Sep 2025 11:57:22 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>🤯 Gold may just go straight to $3500 in the next few hours #7</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-7</link><description>Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-13 16:29&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;soooo… new gold ATH next week?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;look at gold&amp;#x27;s price chart with weekly candles - it&amp;#x27;s unbelievable 🤯&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold is going up like a risky asset - but it in fact is a reflection of risk&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;now it looks like a breakout from another consolidation phase 📈&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/soooo-new-gold-ath-next-week.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/soooo-new-gold-ath-next-week" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-21 18:42&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;all eyes on gold futures 👀&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;COMEX gold futures trading open in 13h&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;markets are closed now, but blockchain never sleeps&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;on-chain gold-backed token futures may give you a heads-up - they&amp;#x27;re up ≈1.3% from yesterday&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;interesting to see gold moves after open&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;spoiler: higher price&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/all-eyes-on-gold-futures.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/all-eyes-on-gold-futures" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 10:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold&amp;#x27;s behavior during the current &amp;#x27;bullrun&amp;#x27; has been consistently to flip previous week&amp;#x27;s resistance to new support&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in the chart - the green vertical lines are weekly levels&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold&amp;#x27;s current price action suggests it&amp;#x27;s flipping another resistance for support&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Road to $3500 🚀&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/golds-behavior-during-the-current-bullrun-has-been.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/golds-behavior-during-the-current-bullrun-has-been" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-22 12:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚀 you can already feel a new ATH for gold&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the loading screen is at 96%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;[🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩⬛] 96%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;and it won&amp;#x27;t stop there&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;price action is showing immaculate breakout vibes 🤩⬇️&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/you-can-already-feel-a-new-ath-for-gold.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/you-can-already-feel-a-new-ath-for-gold" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-12 15:37&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold is currently the only asset whose leveraged long position can be hedged by adding more to the long on pullbacks 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;* one of the only - and ofc technically that&amp;#x27;s not a hedge - but you can read my previous posts to understand what I mean&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;substance over matter 😉&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-is-currently-the-only-asset-whose-leveraged-long.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-is-currently-the-only-asset-whose-leveraged-long" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-17 12:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;consider this gold pullback as a free gift to further extend your long position 🥳&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/consider-this-gold-pullback-as-a-free-gift-to-further-extend.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/consider-this-gold-pullback-as-a-free-gift-to-further-extend" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-28 15:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold price is back up to its price 2 weeks ago&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so it indeed was a good idea to long it at the pullback&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-price-is-back-up-to-its-price-2-weeks-ago.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-price-is-back-up-to-its-price-2-weeks-ago" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-01 21:45&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚀 gold approaching $3400. $3300 was a good price for longs - like I wrote a week ago&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;currently gold is one of the only assets where leverage entails a much lesser risk&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;upside price pressure is coming from several points&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-approaching-3400-3300-was-a-good-price-for-longs-like-i.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-approaching-3400-3300-was-a-good-price-for-longs-like-i" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-04 15:01&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold back to $3400 - trend lines &amp;amp; channels on the chart&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you can see where it&amp;#x27;s headed next 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-back-to-3400-trend-lines-channels-on-the-chart.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-back-to-3400-trend-lines-channels-on-the-chart" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-07 21:45&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚀 gold futures NEW all time high above $3500&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;futures price is usually above spot. today&amp;#x27;s increase was caused by tariffs on gold used in COMEX &amp;amp; CME. i wrote a thread about that today&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i will keep this thread active at least until the spot price reaches a new ATH 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-futures-new-all-time-high-above-3500.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-futures-new-all-time-high-above-3500" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-08 19:42&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold tariffs put further upside pressure for gold towards a new all time high on spot&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is in addition to the global monetary, geopolitical and fiscal positive price pressures&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;a significant part of the markets will be closed for the weekend. there could be a gap on reopen&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-tariffs-put-further-upside-pressure-for-gold-towards-a" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-08 19:53&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;quick update on gold:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;everything according to the plan - the thesis remains valid. now just wait and let the price action unfold 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;use these trend lines as a guide&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/quick-update-on-gold.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/quick-update-on-gold" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-22 18:21&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold continues its uptrend towards the new $3500 all time high&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i&amp;#x27;ve previously written how gold&amp;#x27;s price action suggests a consolidation before the next ATH&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the last main resistance is the upper yellow trend line. once it&amp;#x27;s claimed as support expect gold to shoot to new highs&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-continues-its-uptrend-towards-the-new-3500-all-time.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-continues-its-uptrend-towards-the-new-3500-all-time" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-08-28 23:47&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold reached $3500 new all time high 🥳&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;indeed once the yellow resistance trend line was broken - we saw a new all time high&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the extended consolidation built up a strong future support&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-reached-3500-new-all-time-high.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-reached-3500-new-all-time-high" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-02 15:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;now everyone is talking about gold 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i&amp;#x27;ve been writing about an imminent new all time high and uptrend continuation for 3 months now - you can check back up on this thread&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;every long call in this thread has been accurate&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold is a very special asset this cycle&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/now-everyone-is-talking-about-gold.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/now-everyone-is-talking-about-gold" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-04 14:07&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;just as charted: with the yellow line resistance broken gold has risen over 6%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this thread covers the whole consolidation move, where i explained how it&amp;#x27;s a bullish precursor&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the original goal of this thread was to follow gold until it breaks $3.5K, and now we&amp;#x27;re 0.15K above 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/just-as-charted-with-the-yellow-line-resistance-broken-gold.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/just-as-charted-with-the-yellow-line-resistance-broken-gold" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-08 14:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;👋 hello, $3700 gold&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/hello-3700-gold.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/hello-3700-gold" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-16 14:26&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-7" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/gold-may-just-go-straight-to-3500-in-the-next-few-hours-7</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 16 Sep 2025 13:26:42 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>it's not just the Fed, the ECB is also lowering rates into higher inflation</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/its-not-just-the-fed-the-ecb-is-also-lowering-rates-into</link><description>this puts upwards pressure on both, real estate purchase and rent prices  so you can expect both - house prices and rents - to increase throughout the next 2 years</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this puts upwards pressure on both, real estate purchase and rent prices&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so you can expect both - house prices and rents - to increase throughout the next 2 years&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/its-not-just-the-fed-the-ecb-is-also-lowering-rates-into.png" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/its-not-just-the-fed-the-ecb-is-also-lowering-rates-into" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-17 12:10&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;i&amp;#x27;ve previously written an article about what makes real estate so special in terms of funding/re-funding capacity&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;banks finance ≈75% LTV on real estate purchases, and you can use existing properties as additional collateral&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🧵read it here: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/@1757632740-1.html" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/@1757632740-1.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ive-previously-written-an-article-about-what-makes-real" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-17 12:11&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;these dynamics create an incentive for further upward price pressure:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ purchase prices raise due to low rates and ample financing&lt;br/&gt;➖rent prices raise because purchase prices become too high&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/these-dynamics-create-an-incentive-for-further-upward-price" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-17 12:12&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/its-not-just-the-fed-the-ecb-is-also-lowering-rates-into" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/its-not-just-the-fed-the-ecb-is-also-lowering-rates-into</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 17 Sep 2025 11:12:48 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>there will NOT be a 50 bps rate cut</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/there-will-not-be-a-50-bps-rate-cut</link><description>there is nothing to predict or speculate:  1. open FedWatch 2. observe  that's where institutions are hedging  30 day FedFunds futures implied target rate will NOT be wrong  you'll see in a bit 😉</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;there is nothing to predict or speculate:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1. open FedWatch&lt;br/&gt;2. observe&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;that&amp;#x27;s where institutions are hedging&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;30 day FedFunds futures implied target rate will NOT be wrong&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you&amp;#x27;ll see in a bit 😉&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/there-will-not-be-a-50-bps-rate-cut.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/there-will-not-be-a-50-bps-rate-cut" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-17 17:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;and there you go - the Fed cut the rates by 25 bps&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/and-there-you-go-the-fed-cut-the-rates-by-25-bps" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-17 19:07&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/there-will-not-be-a-50-bps-rate-cut" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/there-will-not-be-a-50-bps-rate-cut</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 17 Sep 2025 18:07:38 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>reducing the cost of capital by 25bps wouldn't affect mortgage that much - as it doesn't eliminate the existing risk in the market (i.e. existing mortgages)</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/reducing-the-cost-of-capital-by-25bps-wouldnt-affect</link><description>to lower mortgage rates the Fed will likely do a mortgage-targeted QE, like with MBS in 2008 QE1</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;to lower mortgage rates the Fed will likely do a mortgage-targeted QE, like with MBS in 2008 QE1&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/reducing-the-cost-of-capital-by-25bps-wouldnt-affect" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-19 20:42&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;in fact, mortgage rates in the US have been on a downtrend for a while - way before the rate cut&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the markets have also gradually priced-in the September for a while, as you could observe in FedFunds futures  &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;current area is also a monthly support, upwards pressure is expected&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/in-fact-mortgage-rates-in-the-us-have-been-on-a-downtrend.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/in-fact-mortgage-rates-in-the-us-have-been-on-a-downtrend" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-19 20:50&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;in the longer-term mortgage rates in the US will likely increase, but not because of interest rate cuts&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/in-the-longer-term-mortgage-rates-in-the-us-will-likely" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-19 21:55&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;in the US, there&amp;#x27;s been a real estate bubble in the building since 1990&amp;#x27;s (pun intended). it was about to burst/de-leverage several times, but it was refueled via QE and government guarantees among others, thus delaying it&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/in-the-us-theres-been-a-real-estate-bubble-in-the-building" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-19 21:56&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so expect a 2008 QE-1 style balance sheet expansion by the Fed targeting mortgage securities via OMO&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;there will also likely be additional government policies and programs, such as increasing the scope and volume of explicit government guarantees on mortgage securities&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-expect-a-2008-qe-1-style-balance-sheet-expansion-by-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-19 22:04&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;mortgage-rates targeted QE, such as the  mass purchase of mortgage backed securities (MBS) by the Fed will drive the mortgage yields down short-term, but also further leverage that market sector in the process&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/mortgage-rates-targeted-qe-such-as-the-mass-purchase-of" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-19 22:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the same is true for government policies or programs - those are also likely to push mortgage rates lower short-term&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;at the very least, extended government guarantees synthetically reduce the risk - the US government is a more trusted backer than the issuer of the MBS&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-same-is-true-for-government-policies-or-programs-those" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-19 22:11&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;of course, that doesn&amp;#x27;t resolve the underlying supply/demand imbalance at the risk level implied by the leverage&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so the bubble is still there, and eventually it will eventually pop&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/of-course-that-doesnt-resolve-the-underlying-supply-demand" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-19 22:18&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the US mortgage bubble will likely pop alongside other bubbles, due to a high degree of interdependence and correlation within the financial sector&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the mortgage bubble can both, trigger and be triggered by burst of other bubbles&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so you&amp;#x27;ll see a cross-border systemic downturn&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-us-mortgage-bubble-will-likely-pop-alongside-other" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-19 22:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so as a takeaway: expect volatility within the mortgage rates in the US&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ upwards pressure: financial downturns in other sectors, organic de-leveraging&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ downwards pressure: QE, Fed facilities, government policies&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-as-a-takeaway-expect-volatility-within-the-mortgage-rates" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-19 22:31&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;while the mortgage will eventually bubble pop/de-leverage to a significantly lower level, it&amp;#x27;s unlikely to happen within the next year or two, as many seem to suggest&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;as I&amp;#x27;ve written here - there are still many tools that can push mortgage rates down shorter-term&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/while-the-mortgage-will-eventually-bubble-pop-de-leverage-to" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-19 22:35&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;but definitely expect volatility 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/but-definitely-expect-volatility" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-19 22:36&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/reducing-the-cost-of-capital-by-25bps-wouldnt-affect" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/reducing-the-cost-of-capital-by-25bps-wouldnt-affect</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 19 Sep 2025 21:36:02 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>watch the Fed's projection dot plot, not the Fed Funds rate</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/watch-the-feds-projection-dot-plot-not-the-fed-funds-rate</link><description>the 25bp/0.25% cut on September 17th 2025 will happen, and it's mostly priced in  it's the future interest rate policy guidance that can amplify a market move either way</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the 25bp/0.25% cut on September 17th 2025 will happen, and it&amp;#x27;s mostly priced in&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it&amp;#x27;s the future interest rate policy guidance that can amplify a market move either way&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/watch-the-feds-projection-dot-plot-not-the-fed-funds-rate.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/watch-the-feds-projection-dot-plot-not-the-fed-funds-rate" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-17 08:57&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;based on the current Fed policy guidance available since June 2025, by the end of 2025 the Fed Funds rate should be ≈3.9%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;current one is 4.25%-4.50%, so we either get a larger than 25bp cut or several rate cuts this year&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/based-on-the-current-fed-policy-guidance-available-since" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-17 08:57&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;a cut larger than 25bp is highly unlikely, since the current CME&amp;#x27;s 30 Day Federal Funds Futures price strongly implies a 4.0%-4.25% target rate&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is 25bp/0.25% below the current target rate of 4.25%-4.5%&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/a-cut-larger-than-25bp-is-highly-unlikely-since-the-current.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/a-cut-larger-than-25bp-is-highly-unlikely-since-the-current" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-17 08:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so the most likely outcome is a 25bp/0.25% rate cut on September 17th 2025, and then at least one more cut in 2025&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-the-most-likely-outcome-is-a-25bp-0-25-rate-cut-on" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-17 08:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;during the Sept 17th 2025 FOMC meeting, the Fed will publish a new dot plot with the suggested interest rates for 2025, 2026, 2027 and longer-term&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/during-the-sept-17th-2025-fomc-meeting-the-fed-will-publish" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-17 09:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;how will asset prices react to Fed&amp;#x27;s interest rate decision?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if the FOMC members suggest rates lower than in the June 2025 - expect an upwards rally in assets&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if the FOMC members suggest higher or non-decreasing near future rates - expect a downward rally/profit taking in assets&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/how-will-asset-prices-react-to-feds-interest-rate-decision.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/how-will-asset-prices-react-to-feds-interest-rate-decision" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-17 09:10&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;September 2025 FOMC dot plot suggests lower rates than in June 2025&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the new implied median for end of 2025 is ≈3.6%, which is lower than the ≈3.9% June figure&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this means you should expect the Fed to cut another 50 bps/0.5% in the next 3 months - likely in two 25bps iterations&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/september-2025-fomc-dot-plot-suggests-lower-rates-than-in.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/september-2025-fomc-dot-plot-suggests-lower-rates-than-in" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-20 14:05&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the market reacted exactly as I anticipated in a prior post&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;a lower median in the FOMC dot plot indeed pushed asset prices up. and you had plenty of time after the Fed&amp;#x27;s dot plot was published to enter into that leg &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;look at gold, silver and S&amp;amp;P500 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-market-reacted-exactly-as-i-anticipated-in-a-prior-post.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-market-reacted-exactly-as-i-anticipated-in-a-prior-post" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-20 14:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/watch-the-feds-projection-dot-plot-not-the-fed-funds-rate" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/watch-the-feds-projection-dot-plot-not-the-fed-funds-rate</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 20 Sep 2025 13:24:16 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>$4000/oz gold by the end of 2025? yes, very much possible, but also beware of consolidation ranges which may extend for months</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/4000-oz-gold-by-the-end-of-2025-yes-very-much-possible-but</link><description>the remaining ≈50bps of rate cuts this year are very much in the process of being priced-in  moreover the USD isn't likely to strengthen significantly over the next 3 months  and additional…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the remaining ≈50bps of rate cuts this year are very much in the process of being priced-in&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;moreover the USD isn&amp;#x27;t likely to strengthen significantly over the next 3 months&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;and additional liquidity will be injected from US, China, EU, Japan &amp;amp; others&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;all positive price pressure on gold&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the question isn&amp;#x27;t wether gold will hit $4000 (it will!), but wether it will reach that price in the next 3 months. it could also settle in a consolidation range with the top just below $4K&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;remember that December is the tax year end pretty much worldwide, so balance sheets will be re-organized. US Treasury will also be running auctions on notes and bills every month until the end of 2025. and that collateral is needed by the wholesale debt markets/money market funds, so it will be bought up. these two could put downward pressure on the price of gold within the next 3 months&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;within the next 8 months gold will almost certainly reach $4000. so if it doesn&amp;#x27;t happen by December 31st 2025, it will be soon after&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i&amp;#x27;we written out my gold price thesis extensively in my previous posts, and closely followed the previous consolidation. you can read that to understand how to interpret data from price pressure, global liquidity and technical analysis standpoint&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i will eventually cover these points in more detail, so stay tuned to future posts&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/4000-oz-gold-by-the-end-of-2025-yes-very-much-possible-but" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-20 18:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/4000-oz-gold-by-the-end-of-2025-yes-very-much-possible-but" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/4000-oz-gold-by-the-end-of-2025-yes-very-much-possible-but</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 20 Sep 2025 17:00:17 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>lower interest rates means less attractive repo and deposit rates, thus expect more capital movement into assets, as the yields on MMF/deposits become less attractive</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/lower-interest-rates-means-less-attractive-repo-and-deposit</link><description>overall positive pressure on asset prices  for the next 3 years - gold, silver  and real estate (real estate is more region specific) are great assets to hold  i'd be wary of US equities  while it's…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;overall positive pressure on asset prices&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;for the next 3 years - gold, silver  and real estate (real estate is more region specific) are great assets to hold&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i&amp;#x27;d be wary of US equities&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;while it&amp;#x27;s not the top yet and they&amp;#x27;ll still move higher - you need to be on the lookout the cycle top, which will manifest in some form in the medium long-term&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in the next two years it&amp;#x27;s reasonable to expect a significant downturn in US equities, which may or may not be longer-lasting. it largely depends on the specific QE &amp;amp; other government policies taken to modulate liquidity and yields&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so if you&amp;#x27;re heavily exposed to US equities, it&amp;#x27;s a good idea to monitor it closely, as there&amp;#x27;s a risk of a significant downturn&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the biggest downside risk to US equities comes from FX, namely from the value and dominance of the US dollar:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ while a weaker USD is positive for cross-border USD credit/liquidity, it also makes imports more expensive for the US - and US is a net importer. increased import prices will put negative pressure on the whole economy, including publicly-traded companies&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ less dominance/demand of USD will not only lead to less total USD abroad available to invest into the US equities, but also lead to the further development of non-USD financial markets because the capital that moves away from USD will need to get invested somewhere. China is the most obvious candidate to benefit from these developments, especially when it comes to equities and renminbi demand. i believe the EU is in a unique position to attract a lot of that USD-exiling demand, but that would require opening-up the markets and regulatory adaptations in that direction&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/lower-interest-rates-means-less-attractive-repo-and-deposit" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-21 17:12&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/lower-interest-rates-means-less-attractive-repo-and-deposit" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/lower-interest-rates-means-less-attractive-repo-and-deposit</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 21 Sep 2025 16:12:59 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>gold moves up by ≈13% on breakouts, thus ≈$4000/oz gold in November 2025</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/gold-moves-up-by-13-on-breakouts-thus-4000-oz-gold-in</link><description>this means that the current move would bring the gold price up to ≈$3978, which should happen at the start of November, around November 4th 2025  so far, gold has completed ≈6% of the current move -…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;this means that the current move would bring the gold price up to ≈$3978, which should happen at the start of November, around November 4th 2025&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so far, gold has completed ≈6% of the current move - which means there&amp;#x27;s another ≈7% to move up from the current gold price of ≈$3715&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this makes ≈$4000 the top of the next consolidation range. once that price is approached - expect a larger pullback, and potentially a longer consolidation phase, which could last ≈90 days. this means that after the top of the current move is hit (≈$4000) you may have to wait for another ≈3 months before a new all time high&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it&amp;#x27;s important to note that the top of the target range is close to $4000, so gold may not cross $4K before the aforementioned pullback. this means that it may take gold another 4 months before gold firmly sits over $4000/oz&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-moves-up-by-13-on-breakouts-thus-4000-oz-gold-in.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-moves-up-by-13-on-breakouts-thus-4000-oz-gold-in" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-23 09:36&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/gold-moves-up-by-13-on-breakouts-thus-4000-oz-gold-in" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/gold-moves-up-by-13-on-breakouts-thus-4000-oz-gold-in</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 23 Sep 2025 08:36:15 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>silver and gold move differently, which why I generally refrain from referring to these commodities in conjunction, even though a lot of what I write about gold also applies to silver</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/silver-and-gold-move-differently-which-why-i-generally</link><description>both, gold and silver are currently great investments, but they exhibit a different risk profile  silver is a lot more volatile, meaning its moves are amplified in both directions  if you’re…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;both, gold and silver are currently great investments, but they exhibit a different risk profile&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;silver is a lot more volatile, meaning its moves are amplified in both directions&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if you’re planning to hold in the treasury/balance sheet it can play a big difference, as you’ll generally be less liquid with your silver holdings - in the sense that you may find it in a significant pullback from a previous high if you try to liquidate it ad-hoc, especially short-term&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/silver-and-gold-move-differently-which-why-i-generally" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-24 12:44&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/silver-and-gold-move-differently-which-why-i-generally" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/silver-and-gold-move-differently-which-why-i-generally</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 24 Sep 2025 11:44:03 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>silver's key short-term trend support is the green light from the chart</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/silvers-key-short-term-trend-support-is-the-green-light-from</link><description>we can only talk about potential pullbacks or consolidations once it's broken  watch it closely 👀</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;we can only talk about potential pullbacks or consolidations once it&amp;#x27;s broken&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;watch it closely 👀&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/silvers-key-short-term-trend-support-is-the-green-light-from.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/silvers-key-short-term-trend-support-is-the-green-light-from" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-24 00:45&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;(silver) a breakdown below the bottom orange line will likely push the price further down, at least to ≈$43.35&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so now, watch the orange trend line/triangle 👀&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1h candles&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/silver-a-breakdown-below-the-bottom-orange-line-will-likely.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/silver-a-breakdown-below-the-bottom-orange-line-will-likely" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-24 14:46&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/silvers-key-short-term-trend-support-is-the-green-light-from" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/silvers-key-short-term-trend-support-is-the-green-light-from</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 24 Sep 2025 13:46:23 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>added RSS feed to illya's threads/articles: https://illya.sh/threads/feed.xml</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/added-rss-feed-to-illyas-threads-articles-https-illya-sh</link><description>so now you can subscribe my longer-form articles directly in your RSS reader</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so now you can subscribe my longer-form articles directly in your RSS reader&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/added-rss-feed-to-illyas-threads-articles-https-illya-sh.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/added-rss-feed-to-illyas-threads-articles-https-illya-sh" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-24 19:25&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;previously, there was only a web version at &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;now there is also RSS, just like for illya&amp;#x27;s thoughts&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/previously-there-was-only-a-web-version-at-https-illya-sh.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/previously-there-was-only-a-web-version-at-https-illya-sh" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-24 20:09&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/added-rss-feed-to-illyas-threads-articles-https-illya-sh" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/added-rss-feed-to-illyas-threads-articles-https-illya-sh</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 24 Sep 2025 19:09:43 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>my article on repo rates and BTC price was referenced on bitcoin.com</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/my-article-on-repo-rates-and-btc-price-was-referenced-on</link><description>apparently it's been there for a month, but i only noticed now  it's a short read - and explains the negative price pressure that quarter-ends, and  especially September bring on the price of…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;apparently it&amp;#x27;s been there for a month, but i only noticed now&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it&amp;#x27;s a short read - and explains the negative price pressure that quarter-ends, and  especially September bring on the price of liquidity sensitive assets like Bitcoin&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it give you a concrete perspective on the current cryptocurrency price dump, even with decreasing funding rates&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/my-article-on-repo-rates-and-btc-price-was-referenced-on.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/my-article-on-repo-rates-and-btc-price-was-referenced-on" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-25 20:12&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;you can read the full article/thread explaining why September is generally a bad month for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies here: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/@1755867104-1.html" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/@1755867104-1.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/you-can-read-the-full-article-thread-explaining-why.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/you-can-read-the-full-article-thread-explaining-why" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-25 20:20&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/my-article-on-repo-rates-and-btc-price-was-referenced-on" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/my-article-on-repo-rates-and-btc-price-was-referenced-on</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 25 Sep 2025 19:20:06 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>How Banks Create Money When Purchasing Assets</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/how-banks-create-money-when-purchasing-assets</link><description>I have previously written about the unique legal powers given to commercial banks and credit institutions in general, that allow them to create new currency, thus increasing its supply. For banks,…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;I have previously written about the unique legal powers given to commercial banks and credit institutions in general, that allow them to create new currency, thus increasing its supply. For banks, this also extends to their open market operations, such as when they buy securities and other assets from the open market. If the bank’s counterparty happens to be a non-bank, or more generally an entity without an account at the central bank, then the bank will create new currency to pay for that transaction. I described this in my thread/article titled &amp;quot;when a bank buys an asset from a non-bank it creates broad money&amp;quot;: &lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/@1755863018-1.html" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/@1755863018-1.html&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I received a question about it via e-mail, so I’m writing a follow-up with clarifications.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The flow that I was describing the thread linked above is what happens when a bank buys an asset from a non-bank. Let’s assume the bank ABC wants to buy an asset from you. Let’s forget about US government bonds for now, let’s say the bank wants to buy 100 shares of Tesla from you. The current market price for 1 Tesla share is ≈$450, so the ABC bank would pay you $45000 and you will give the bank the 100 shares. Let’s also assume you have an account in that bank (this is not mandatory!)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Let’s say that right before the bank makes a purchase from you (a microsecond before that transaction/sale happens) there is a total of $1 million ($1000000) of US dollars in circulation. The moment right after the transaction is made, and the bank crediting your account with $45000, the total money in circulation would become $1 000 000 +  $45000 = $1 045 000. The main point here is that those  $45000 didn’t exist in circulation before. They were not taken from someone else’s account, nor from internal bank reserves. Those  $45000 were created “out of thin air”, and that money was credited into your account. I say “credited” because it’s from the point of view of the bank - your deposit account at the bank is a liability to the bank - it sits on the liabilities side of the balance sheet - a credit increases liabilities.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Now, I referred to “money in circulation”, but I actually meant Broad Money. There is another form of money - called Broad Money. There is a great paper from the Bank of England that describes them, alongside how commercial banks create money: &lt;a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy.pdf" target="_blank"&gt;https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy.pdf&lt;/a&gt; . But in short, Broad Money is the money available for use by the larger economy (individuals, companies, etc), while Base Money is physical currency and currency held in reserve accounts at  the central bank - the reserve accounts portion doesn’t touch the broader economy directly.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;If instead a bank ABC purchases an asset from another bank DEF - then the total money does not change. The bank ABC would just debit their reserve account at the central bank and credit the reserve account of the bank DEF. So money moves accounts, but total quantity does not change.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;In the same manner, when a commercial bank buys bonds directly from the government, there is no creation of “new money” - the money moves within the central bank’s reserve accounts. The general rule is: if the transacting entities have reserve accounts in the central bank the transaction is made within the central bank’s reserve accounts.  Commercial banks, governments and sometimes select financial institutions (like in the US) have reserve accounts at the central bank, so transactions within them move Base Money  &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The following article on how commercial banks work will be very helpful to understand how they operate and create money: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/@1754426330-1" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/@1754426330-1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/how-banks-create-money-when-purchasing-assets.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/how-banks-create-money-when-purchasing-assets" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-26 20:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/how-banks-create-money-when-purchasing-assets" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/how-banks-create-money-when-purchasing-assets</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 26 Sep 2025 19:41:54 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>virtually every corporation that accepts Ethereum/Bitcoin for payments doesn't actually process the payment in crypto</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/virtually-every-corporation-that-accepts-ethereum-bitcoin</link><description>they immediately covert it to USD or another FIAT, and not actually hold the BTC, ETH, etc  the convertion is generally done via an intermediary, so the company you're buying never even touch or…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;they immediately covert it to USD or another FIAT, and not actually hold the BTC, ETH, etc&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the convertion is generally done via an intermediary, so the company you&amp;#x27;re buying never even touch or care about the crypto asset. they want the same government-backed currencies that we use now&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the intermediary will also generally charge a fee, around ≈1% of the transaction value. so buying directly with crypto is likely to be more expensive than directly with FIAT. if you just sell the crypto for FIAT and pay directly in USD, EUR, etc it will likely be cheaper. so what&amp;#x27;s the point of paying more?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;don&amp;#x27;t be fooled by headlines or articles that suggest otherwise&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/virtually-every-corporation-that-accepts-ethereum-bitcoin.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/virtually-every-corporation-that-accepts-ethereum-bitcoin" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-28 15:40&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/virtually-every-corporation-that-accepts-ethereum-bitcoin" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/virtually-every-corporation-that-accepts-ethereum-bitcoin</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 28 Sep 2025 14:40:39 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>central banks have rejected holding Bitcoin in their reserves including Fed, ECB, PBoC and many others</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/central-banks-have-rejected-holding-bitcoin-in-their</link><description>what would even be the purpose of a central bank holding BTC on their balance sheet? so that they can stabilize the value of the currency against Bitcoin? what would be the practical benefit from it…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;what would even be the purpose of a central bank holding BTC on their balance sheet? so that they can stabilize the value of the currency against Bitcoin? what would be the practical benefit from it now?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;cross-border crypto trade in non-stablecoins is negligible. Bitcoin is extremely volatile, which would make central-bank issued currency more volatile - this goes exactly against the direct mandate of most central banks - price stability.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;a more volatile currency will also lead to a more volatile bond market, which will make government funding more volatile, and thus a high risk/uncertain economy&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;and i&amp;#x27;m not even going to touch on the security risks. okay, maybe briefly 😄:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ governments are one of the only entities that can realistically perform a successful 51% attack on Bitcoin. well, with central banks owning BTC will make such attacks much more attractive - including at the geopolitical level. the same goes for denial of service family of attacks&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ what if the central bank&amp;#x27;s wallets get hacked/compromised? i&amp;#x27;m not talking about quantum computers breaking RSA, but operational level mistake or compromise&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so for the next 10 years, I view central banks holding Bitcoin on their balance sheet as a negative sign for their currency. of course, the protocol and the bitcoin network will evolve/change over time, and with so may my stance&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i believe cryptocurrencies, and more specifically distributed layer technologies/blockchain architectures can bring immense value to our financial system as a whole, but that doesn&amp;#x27;t mean that we should have central banks speculating on that today. it makes much more sense to increase gold reserves instead&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/central-banks-have-rejected-holding-bitcoin-in-their.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/central-banks-have-rejected-holding-bitcoin-in-their" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-28 17:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/central-banks-have-rejected-holding-bitcoin-in-their" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/central-banks-have-rejected-holding-bitcoin-in-their</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 28 Sep 2025 16:43:20 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>if you buy a car with Bitcoin, you're still subject to capital gains tax</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/if-you-buy-a-car-with-bitcoin-youre-still-subject-to-capital</link><description>under the US law cryptocurrencies are property - so you're taxed on the USD value of the car at the time of purchase minus the cost of your original crypto purchase (so you're only taxed on the…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;under the US law cryptocurrencies are property - so you&amp;#x27;re taxed on the USD value of the car at the time of purchase minus the cost of your original crypto purchase (so you&amp;#x27;re only taxed on the gain/profit)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so if the processing fee of a payment with Ethereum is larger than it would be by selling Ethereum for USD first (e.g. transfer ETH to an exchange --&amp;gt; sell --&amp;gt; transfer to your bank account), then you end up paying more with Ethereum than you would with USD. it make sense, because you&amp;#x27;d be removing an intermediary (i.e. you sell ETH for USD yourself)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in either case, the seller receives USD for the car, not ETH or BTC. the intermediary most likely doesn&amp;#x27;t keep ETH/BTC on their balance sheet either, they just proxy your order to the market and charge a spread&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/if-you-buy-a-car-with-bitcoin-youre-still-subject-to-capital.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/if-you-buy-a-car-with-bitcoin-youre-still-subject-to-capital" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-28 18:07&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/if-you-buy-a-car-with-bitcoin-youre-still-subject-to-capital" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/if-you-buy-a-car-with-bitcoin-youre-still-subject-to-capital</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 28 Sep 2025 17:07:07 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>portugal golden visa real estate investments are less than 3% of total housing transactions</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/portugal-golden-visa-real-estate-investments-are-less-than-3</link><description>portuguese real estate market volume is ≈30B€/year, golden visa purchases accounted for ≈556M€/year  3% of total volume of the housing market is unlikely to be the primary driver of the national…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;portuguese real estate market volume is ≈30B€/year, golden visa purchases accounted for ≈556M€/year&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;3% of total volume of the housing market is unlikely to be the primary driver of the national median prices increase&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so next time someone tells you that one of the main drivers behind increasing Portuguese real estate prices are golden visa investments - their argument is likely to lack substance&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/portugal-golden-visa-real-estate-investments-are-less-than-3.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/portugal-golden-visa-real-estate-investments-are-less-than-3" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-27 11:19&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the majority of real estate purchases in Portugal are done with credit. moreover, each property itself can be used  as a collateral to get more credit - at least 75% of the property&amp;#x27;s value. so not only you can purchase the property, earn a yield via rents, but also get a credit/loan for 75% of value of the property&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in Portugal, ≈90% of all credit/loans against real estate, go into investing into more real estate. so each collateraized property, can contribute ≈2x of its value as buying pressure for the real estate market as a whole (1x when the property is first purchased, and 0.75x-1x when the property is used as collateral to get a loan against it)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so effectively real estate itself is driving real estate prices up. banks happily finance real estate acquisitions, and lend against real estate collateral. then, most of that credit goes into purchasing more real estate, thus pushing the prices up&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so the main drivers behind increasing real estate prices in Portugal are:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the real estate itself, i.e. the property itself&lt;br/&gt;funding rate/cost of credit (highly influenced by ECB policy rates)&lt;br/&gt;low relative transaction volume/market cap, making it easier to move the median&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the first two points are generally universal across the globe. i&amp;#x27;ve previously written an article about what makes real estate such a special asset from the point of view of financing. you can read it here: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/@1757632740-1.html" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/@1757632740-1.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the relatively low total transactional volume, which has increased almost x3 in the past decade - makes it &amp;quot;easier&amp;quot; for buying pressure to push the housing prices up&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;of course, other factors contribute as well. Portugal is highly demanded area for cultural and geographical reasons - i.e. locals are welcoming and Portugal has a huge coastal area. there is also high inflation, regulatory challenges and supply chain limitations&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the bottom line is that real estate purchase and rent prices in Portugal will continue to increase over medium-long term&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-majority-of-real-estate-purchases-in-portugal-are-done" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-29 09:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/portugal-golden-visa-real-estate-investments-are-less-than-3" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/portugal-golden-visa-real-estate-investments-are-less-than-3</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 29 Sep 2025 08:54:31 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>silver's current short-term support line is in green</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/silvers-current-short-term-support-line-is-in-green</link><description>it will be touched soon  watch it closely!</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;it will be touched soon&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;watch it closely!&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/silvers-current-short-term-support-line-is-in-green.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/silvers-current-short-term-support-line-is-in-green" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-30 00:19&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;and there you go 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;once the short-term suport line was broken, silver&amp;#x27;s price fell down to another support&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/and-there-you-go.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/and-there-you-go" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-30 10:23&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/silvers-current-short-term-support-line-is-in-green" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/silvers-current-short-term-support-line-is-in-green</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2025 09:23:42 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Bitcoin is not a good collateral for a loan, here's why:</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-is-not-a-good-collateral-for-a-loan-heres-why</link><description>1️⃣ You can only get ≈50% LVT credit 2️⃣ You pay higher interest than on mortgages/real estate-backed loans 3️⃣ You get liquidated from ≈80% LVT  So if your strategy is to purchase assets and use…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;1️⃣ You can only get ≈50% LVT credit&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ You pay higher interest than on mortgages/real estate-backed loans&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ You get liquidated from ≈80% LVT&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So if your strategy is to purchase assets and use them as collateral for loans, you may be better off with real estate:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ You can get more than 75% LTV credit&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ You&amp;#x27;ll pay lower interest for a mortgage/real estate-collateralized loan than for a BTC collateralized loan&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ No liquidations when real estate is collateral. If property (collateral value) falls, you may be requested a cure, but forced sales must go though courts.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/bitcoin-is-not-a-good-collateral-for-a-loan-heres-why" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-30 10:57&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-is-not-a-good-collateral-for-a-loan-heres-why" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-is-not-a-good-collateral-for-a-loan-heres-why</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2025 09:57:11 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>no, "The West" is not manipulating gold and silver prices</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/no-the-west-is-not-manipulating-gold-and-silver-prices</link><description>silver and gold had retracements many times before, but I guess when it falls on Chinese holidays it becomes "western manipulation"?  ≈32% of global gold demand in 2025 comes from China (estimate…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;silver and gold had retracements many times before, but I guess when it falls on Chinese holidays it becomes &amp;quot;western manipulation&amp;quot;?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;≈32% of global gold demand in 2025 comes from China (estimate for jewelry + bar &amp;amp; coin). China is a major buyer of gold - so a lot of demand there&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;a more reasonable explanation is a demand dip, due to the holiday in PRC. also the US government shutdown. although I agree the idea of a magic red button saying DUMP GOLD located somewhere in the west is more exciting 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it&amp;#x27;s also not clear what would be the purpose of manipulating the price of gold down, as that would be benefiting China - they can buy it cheaper!&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;PBoC has been buying gold for years, and they will continue to do so. PBoC doesn&amp;#x27;t announce targets publicly - and they&amp;#x27;re flexible on their purchases, so again, lowering the gold price would likely allow them to buy it at a cheaper price&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/no-the-west-is-not-manipulating-gold-and-silver-prices.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/no-the-west-is-not-manipulating-gold-and-silver-prices" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-01 11:18&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/no-the-west-is-not-manipulating-gold-and-silver-prices" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/no-the-west-is-not-manipulating-gold-and-silver-prices</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 01 Oct 2025 10:18:24 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>we are approaching a local top for silver and gold according to my market vibe meter</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/we-are-approaching-a-local-top-for-silver-and-gold-according</link><description>usually i'd write a longer post with an explanation &amp; technicals, but today i'm writing of off vibes 😄  my twitter/x feed has been filled with so much euphoria regarding silver &amp; gold that it starts…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;usually i&amp;#x27;d write a longer post with an explanation &amp;amp; technicals, but today i&amp;#x27;m writing of off vibes 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;my twitter/x feed has been filled with so much euphoria regarding silver &amp;amp; gold that it starts to resemble those accounts which constantly promote Bitcoin&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you also have to contextualize how extended gold and silver&amp;#x27;s moves have been. the graph shows monthly candles&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this isn&amp;#x27;t a bearish post on gold though - still expecting $4000/oz in November 2025 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/we-are-approaching-a-local-top-for-silver-and-gold-according.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/we-are-approaching-a-local-top-for-silver-and-gold-according" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-03 19:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/we-are-approaching-a-local-top-for-silver-and-gold-according" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/we-are-approaching-a-local-top-for-silver-and-gold-according</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 03 Oct 2025 18:58:08 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>decentralized digital Euro will not work, because the ECB needs to have full control over it</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/decentralized-digital-euro-will-not-work-because-the-ecb</link><description>retail CBDCs are direct central bank liabilities on the balance sheet. so "neutral market infrastructure" would not work, because the ECB needs to have full control over it. you can also imagine how…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;retail CBDCs are direct central bank liabilities on the balance sheet. so &amp;quot;neutral market infrastructure&amp;quot; would not work, because the ECB needs to have full control over it. you can also imagine how many regulations need to be accounted for by the implementation&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it most likely won&amp;#x27;t use a public blockchain for base implementation, and it&amp;#x27;s definitely not like stablecoins 😄 &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;digital euro also needs to support offline payments, which isn&amp;#x27;t currently widely supported in DeFi. Zero Knowledge Proofs enable some potential solutions for this, but I don&amp;#x27;t believe that that&amp;#x27;s with what the ECB is going with now&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/decentralized-digital-euro-will-not-work-because-the-ecb.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/decentralized-digital-euro-will-not-work-because-the-ecb" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-04 13:40&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/decentralized-digital-euro-will-not-work-because-the-ecb" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/decentralized-digital-euro-will-not-work-because-the-ecb</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 04 Oct 2025 12:40:25 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>people are calling Christine Lagarde ignorant on Bitcoin, but don't explain how</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/people-are-calling-christine-lagarde-ignorant-on-bitcoin-but</link><description>how exactly are her statements on Bitcoin ignorant? it's not nice to insult someone, and it certainly doesn't explain how Bitcoin has the same amount and class of intrinsic value as gold - a…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;how exactly are her statements on Bitcoin ignorant? it&amp;#x27;s not nice to insult someone, and it certainly doesn&amp;#x27;t explain how Bitcoin has the same amount and class of intrinsic value as gold - a commodity that has been money for over 5K years&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;what is even the purpose of a central bank holding BTC in their balance sheet today? speculative investments are not a part of their mandates and moving in that direction would be contradictory to their legally established goals&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;commercial banking is not the same as central banking&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/people-are-calling-christine-lagarde-ignorant-on-bitcoin-but.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/people-are-calling-christine-lagarde-ignorant-on-bitcoin-but" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-08 16:31&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/people-are-calling-christine-lagarde-ignorant-on-bitcoin-but" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/people-are-calling-christine-lagarde-ignorant-on-bitcoin-but</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 08 Oct 2025 15:31:18 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>neither supply nor demand are static</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/neither-supply-nor-demand-are-static</link><description>if you renew a building in a high demand area you're removing an abandoned/old property from an area, which makes the area "nicer", thus it becomes more attractive = more demand  you're also…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;if you renew a building in a high demand area you&amp;#x27;re removing an abandoned/old property from an area, which makes the area &amp;quot;nicer&amp;quot;, thus it becomes more attractive = more demand&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you&amp;#x27;re also probably will be renting more than the area average (it&amp;#x27;s a new construction now)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;imagine doing this in an almost central part of a high demand city&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so renting a building can actually bring prices in the area up instead of down&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;still - more building is better!! it does put downwards pressure on the real estate prices - but you&amp;#x27;re looking in the wrong place. you should be looking at credit instead. i wrote an article to get you started here: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/@1757632740-1.html" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/@1757632740-1.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/neither-supply-nor-demand-are-static" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-08 21:18&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/neither-supply-nor-demand-are-static" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/neither-supply-nor-demand-are-static</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 08 Oct 2025 20:18:22 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>no, permissioned assets running on blockchains are NOT sheep in wolves' clothing</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/no-permissioned-assets-running-on-blockchains-are-not-sheep</link><description>blockchains need to integrate with our existing legal systems - and the permissioned aspect is often required by law  i'm currently looking into implementing a real estate European Long Term…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;blockchains need to integrate with our existing legal systems - and the permissioned aspect is often required by law&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i&amp;#x27;m currently looking into implementing a real estate European Long Term Investment Fund (ELTIF) on-chain with smart contracts&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;the EU regulations governing such funds explicitly require a permissioned control. for example, an ELTIF must be managed by an Alternative Investment Fund Manager (AIFM), as per Directive 2011/61/EU (AIFMD). so there must always be an AIFM behind the token/smart contacts. it can&amp;#x27;t just be &amp;quot;ownerless&amp;quot; decentralized contracts. by design that someone also bears legal responsibility&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;you&amp;#x27;re also legally not allowed to allow retail investments into the fund without KYC, which is also a permissioned component&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in order to be able to have the unit&amp;#x27;s funds tradable on-chain without qualifying as a trading venue under MiFID II (so you don&amp;#x27;t need additional licenses), you may want to use ELTIF RTS, which under certain conditions exempt your ELTIF smart contracts from being classified as a multilateral system. to qualify for this exception, the law requires the manager to operate windows, decide on execution prices, etc - i.e. the fund&amp;#x27;s units get traded in a permissioned manner&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;these are just some of practical examples. as you see, there are many reasons for using a permissioned design in your blockchain assets&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;permissionless is great, but practical value is more important. we need more solutions that work with the existing legal and financial system infrastructure&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/no-permissioned-assets-running-on-blockchains-are-not-sheep.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/no-permissioned-assets-running-on-blockchains-are-not-sheep" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-10 02:15&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/no-permissioned-assets-running-on-blockchains-are-not-sheep" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/no-permissioned-assets-running-on-blockchains-are-not-sheep</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 10 Oct 2025 01:15:55 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>FYI you can ask the bank to lend you ≈75%LTV of the future property before restoration works start</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/fyi-you-can-ask-the-bank-to-lend-you-75-ltv-of-the-future</link><description>so assuming you have a real estate project for restoration - the bank estimates the future value (after the immovable property is restored) and lends ≈75% of that expected future value. if you lease…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;so assuming you have a real estate project for restoration - the bank estimates the future value (after the immovable property is restored) and lends ≈75% of that expected future value. if you lease the property instead of buying - banks can generally finance 100%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;in restoration projects the bank may also agree for a lower installment payment schedule while the works are ongoing/the property business is being setup - e.g. for the first two years of the loan you&amp;#x27;re only paying interest installment portion without amortizing the outstanding principal amount&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;otherwise you&amp;#x27;ll need another way to finance the restoration costs, and I doubt the contracting company will agree to only receive payment once your loan gets approved&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/fyi-you-can-ask-the-bank-to-lend-you-75-ltv-of-the-future" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-12 17:15&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/fyi-you-can-ask-the-bank-to-lend-you-75-ltv-of-the-future" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/fyi-you-can-ask-the-bank-to-lend-you-75-ltv-of-the-future</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 12 Oct 2025 16:15:05 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>1. Bitcoin is not money. Calling it money won't make it money</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/1-bitcoin-is-not-money-calling-it-money-wont-make-it-money</link><description>2. Digital currency designs existed before bitcoin - and double spending wasn't an unsolvable problem  3. Again, bitcoin is not money and all it takes is for your government to declare it illicit to…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;2. Digital currency designs existed before bitcoin - and double spending wasn&amp;#x27;t an unsolvable problem&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;3. Again, bitcoin is not money and all it takes is for your government to declare it illicit to censor it. Bitcoin is not private - you will be tracked if needed &amp;amp; in many ways it&amp;#x27;s much easier than with banks&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I&amp;#x27;m a big fan of Bitcoin, DeFi &amp;amp; crypto in general, but that doesn&amp;#x27;t mean reality should be skewed&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Remember that lot of accounts posting non-stop pro-BTC/crypto content are paid for it - directly or indirectly. Another large portion of  them are automated/bots.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Keep it real 😎&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/1-bitcoin-is-not-money-calling-it-money-wont-make-it-money" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-18 11:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/1-bitcoin-is-not-money-calling-it-money-wont-make-it-money" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/1-bitcoin-is-not-money-calling-it-money-wont-make-it-money</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 18 Oct 2025 10:28:02 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>BTC went from $0.004 to $110,000 USD in 16 years, but gold was never this cheap in over 5000 years</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/btc-went-from-0-004-to-110-000-usd-in-16-years-but-gold-was</link><description>Going back to the start of recorded price systems - gold's starting price per gram is ≈100 days of labor! This was in 2112 BCE, which was ≈4K years ago  So using earliest records of starting price -…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Going back to the start of recorded price systems - gold&amp;#x27;s starting price per gram is ≈100 days of labor! This was in 2112 BCE, which was ≈4K years ago&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So using earliest records of starting price - 1g of gold would cost ≈25K$ is today&amp;#x27;s USD 🤯 NOTE: this is an imprecise estimation - but it&amp;#x27;s useful to bring the gold vs bitcoin price increase argument in perspective. During most of gold&amp;#x27;s USD history its price has been fixed by the government/law.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Will Bitcoin be here in 5K years? No - not in its current form. Gold (Au) hasn&amp;#x27;t changed in 13 billion years&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Bitcoin promo accounts love to compare BTC to gold, and they frequently cite that BTC is up much more than gold over the last 16 years. The number is big - from its inception Bitcoin is up millionth of percent&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;What the pro-crypto accounts fail to point out is that mathematically their conclusions are misleading. They almost always use USD as the base currency for comparison, but ignore the fact that gold was used as money several millennia before U.S. was even conceived. As such, such comparisons fail short&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;They also seem to selectively omit the massive volatility - gold doesn&amp;#x27;t go down 80% every other day/cycle top&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The gold prices here I computed are estimates - don&amp;#x27;t take them as hard quantitive data. Read this in the context of comparing the price of gold and Bitcoin. If someone&amp;#x27;s argument is that Bitcoin is better than gold because it had a higher percentual return in 16 years - it likely lacks substance&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/btc-went-from-0-004-to-110-000-usd-in-16-years-but-gold-was.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/btc-went-from-0-004-to-110-000-usd-in-16-years-but-gold-was" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-18 13:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/btc-went-from-0-004-to-110-000-usd-in-16-years-but-gold-was" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/btc-went-from-0-004-to-110-000-usd-in-16-years-but-gold-was</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 18 Oct 2025 12:28:03 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>my vibe meter on Bitcoin is off the charts 📈*</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/my-vibe-meter-on-bitcoin-is-off-the-charts</link><description>the algorithm on X has been pushing a lot of pro-BTC content over the past month, and it's becoming more and more irrational:   accounts with millions of followers recycling 2024 news about "new"…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the algorithm on X has been pushing a lot of pro-BTC content over the past month, and it&amp;#x27;s becoming more and more irrational: &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;accounts with millions of followers recycling 2024 news about &amp;quot;new&amp;quot; gold reserves in China, false news about China legalizing Bitcoin and calls for gold going down to $2000&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;every pro-Bitcoin account seems to be calling a long-term gold top (LOL!) and heavy rotation into Bitcoin. actually a lot of BTC shill content is about BTC being better than gold - and the arguments for it aren&amp;#x27;t very sound. i&amp;#x27;ve written several posts explaining this. BTC crowd seems very obsessed about gold - especially when it comes to showing how it&amp;#x27;s inferior to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not gold - and it will never be gold - they&amp;#x27;re very different assets. that doesn&amp;#x27;t mean that BTC ownership is a bad idea - but it&amp;#x27;s important important to approach it rationally &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;a large part of this seems coordinated/paid campaigns. liquidity always needs an exit&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;so Bitcoin should continue with some more downside in the near future&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;* this sentiment is based on vibes, but it&amp;#x27;s backed by technicals &amp;amp; fundamentals at its base. you can find in-depth explanations in my past posts and threads&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/my-vibe-meter-on-bitcoin-is-off-the-charts.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/my-vibe-meter-on-bitcoin-is-off-the-charts" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-19 14:12&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/my-vibe-meter-on-bitcoin-is-off-the-charts" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/my-vibe-meter-on-bitcoin-is-off-the-charts</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 19 Oct 2025 13:12:43 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>it's not about lowering gold</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/its-not-about-lowering-gold</link><description>and nobody is panicking  pro-crypto shill is about gold now because gold has has been the most notable asset post-interest rate cuts by the Fed  not long ago it was about dumping ETH for BTC, and by…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;and nobody is panicking&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;pro-crypto shill is about gold now because gold has has been the most notable asset post-interest rate cuts by the Fed&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;not long ago it was about dumping ETH for BTC, and by default it&amp;#x27;s about inflation/currency debasement&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold has been impressive. but this is very expected. during gold&amp;#x27;s last consolidation i&amp;#x27;ve written extensively about how it&amp;#x27;s setting up very strong support and will make the uptrend continuation even more decisive. every dip was indeed a buying opportunity&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/its-not-about-lowering-gold" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-19 23:52&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/its-not-about-lowering-gold" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/its-not-about-lowering-gold</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 19 Oct 2025 22:52:10 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Bitcoin isn't private - at best it's anonymous</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-isnt-private-at-best-its-anonymous</link><description>and this is by design. it's just cryptography/math - not much to argue about  but gold transactions aren't private either. most of the time they're not even anonymous. you must have some level of…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;and this is by design. it&amp;#x27;s just cryptography/math - not much to argue about&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;but gold transactions aren&amp;#x27;t private either. most of the time they&amp;#x27;re not even anonymous. you must have some level of trust with the counterparty - either directly or via intermediary. a lot of the times this is required by law&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;at retail level, there is much more privacy and anonymity with Bitcoin that with gold&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold has clearly more intrinsic value than bitcoin, but bitcoin is one of the most significant advancements in money. although bitcoin isn&amp;#x27;t money 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/bitcoin-isnt-private-at-best-its-anonymous.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/bitcoin-isnt-private-at-best-its-anonymous" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-20 00:43&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-isnt-private-at-best-its-anonymous" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-isnt-private-at-best-its-anonymous</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 19 Oct 2025 23:43:45 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>hope you enjoyed Friday's gold, silver &amp; miners sell-off</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/hope-you-enjoyed-fridays-gold-silver-miners-sell-off</link><description>now await for the markets to re-open  it begins in a few hours 👀</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;now await for the markets to re-open&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it begins in a few hours 👀&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/hope-you-enjoyed-fridays-gold-silver-miners-sell-off.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/hope-you-enjoyed-fridays-gold-silver-miners-sell-off" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-19 19:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;⏰ don&amp;#x27;t forget to setup your buy limit orders for gold, silver and their miners&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/dont-forget-to-setup-your-buy-limit-orders-for-gold-silver" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-20 01:44&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the promised gold &amp;amp; silver sale is here&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if you didn&amp;#x27;t set your limit buy orders for silver, gold &amp;amp; miners - it&amp;#x27;s not too late yet&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;currently in late-September price ranges for many. it&amp;#x27;s also a good idea to position some buy targets below the current price levels&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;keep watching the gold price - it&amp;#x27;s the main driver for all&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;FOMC meeting is next week&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-promised-gold-silver-sale-is-here.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-promised-gold-silver-sale-is-here" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-21 12:20&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;gold has formed a double top on the 4H chart 📈 &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;that&amp;#x27;s why I wrote that buy orders below the current prices are a good idea&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;i&amp;#x27;d prioritize buying opportunities in silver + gold &amp;amp; silver miners on this pullback&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;gold is also a great idea, but you&amp;#x27;ll get more volatility/relative upside in others&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-has-formed-a-double-top-on-the-4h-chart.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-has-formed-a-double-top-on-the-4h-chart" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-21 14:31&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/hope-you-enjoyed-fridays-gold-silver-miners-sell-off" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/hope-you-enjoyed-fridays-gold-silver-miners-sell-off</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 21 Oct 2025 13:31:30 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Bitcoin needs gold. Gold doesn't need Bitcoin</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-needs-gold-gold-doesnt-need-bitcoin</link><description>TL;DR: Bitcoin is a protocol that runs on computers. Computers rely heavily on electronics. Gold is widely used in electronics. Bitcoin depends on gold.  Bitcoin quite literally runs on gold. ≈99%…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;TL;DR: Bitcoin is a protocol that runs on computers. Computers rely heavily on electronics. Gold is widely used in electronics. Bitcoin depends on gold.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Bitcoin quite literally runs on gold. ≈99% of physical machines hosting Bitcoin nodes contain at least trace amounts of gold. The same is true for the overall electric grid infrastructure that delivers electricity to Bitcoin nodes. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;While gold isn&amp;#x27;t strictly required for electronics, it&amp;#x27;s widely used to due to organic demand. Gold&amp;#x27;s ROI in signal connectors is very strong, because you need little gold to mitigate a large amount of failure risk. All of this is due to the unique chemical nature of gold, which alongside its scarcity is at the base of gold&amp;#x27;s intrinsic value.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Gold is a chemical element in the periodic table - its atomic symbol is Au. Physical gold is essentially Au atoms connected to other Au atoms in a cubic pattern. This structure is very stable, and at the same time soft/malleable. Gold is used in electronics because it provides stable, low and predictable contact resistance and corrosion immunity at low currents/voltages, including under vibration.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Electronics is of course just one of the use-cases of gold. Among others, it has been used as money for more than 5000 years. Even if Bitcoin does become money in the future, it won&amp;#x27;t be the only form of money (plus, you can always tokenize gold!). And especially not for the near long-term future. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Digital currencies are at their infancy, and they almost always depend on stable electrical grid and network connection to function properly. This includes Bitcoin. Gold doesn&amp;#x27;t have this risk. It was used as money before electricity and networks existed, and it can continue to be used alongside them&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This is not to say that Bitcoin is a bad idea, but gold has a higher intrinsic value by definition&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/bitcoin-needs-gold-gold-doesnt-need-bitcoin.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/bitcoin-needs-gold-gold-doesnt-need-bitcoin" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-22 09:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-needs-gold-gold-doesnt-need-bitcoin" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-needs-gold-gold-doesnt-need-bitcoin</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 22 Oct 2025 08:41:30 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>if you think they crypto will replace banks, you don't understand what banks are and how they work</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/if-you-think-they-crypto-will-replace-banks-you-dont</link><description>banks are credit institutions. it doesn't matter if they process transactions in COBOL, Bitcoin or Solidity  DLTs can and will save on costs, but that will also open opportunities for banks to…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;banks are credit institutions. it doesn&amp;#x27;t matter if they process transactions in COBOL, Bitcoin or Solidity&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;DLTs can and will save on costs, but that will also open opportunities for banks to expand further&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it&amp;#x27;s not about the underlying technology - the credit can be issued on-chain via tokens, but there will still be heavy regulations and authorization requirements&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;DLTs/blockchains won&amp;#x27;t magically replace banks&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/if-you-think-they-crypto-will-replace-banks-you-dont.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/if-you-think-they-crypto-will-replace-banks-you-dont" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-23 10:14&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/if-you-think-they-crypto-will-replace-banks-you-dont" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/if-you-think-they-crypto-will-replace-banks-you-dont</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 23 Oct 2025 09:14:56 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>'The market is never wrong' #8</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-8</link><description>A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything &amp; prices accordingly - even before the official news  Okay.  Now wait &amp; watch crude oil &amp; gold raise up even more in price very…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything &amp;amp; prices accordingly - even before the official news&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Okay.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Now wait &amp;amp; watch crude oil &amp;amp; gold raise up even more in price very soon&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This isn&amp;#x27;t a joke&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-market-is-never-wrong.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-market-is-never-wrong" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-06-16 13:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🛢️ crude oil price is heading back up - just like I wrote earlier&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;significant geopolitical events introduce volatility - but my thesis on increasing oil, gold &amp;amp; other precious metals + commodities has little to do with that&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;👉 it&amp;#x27;s about global liquidity flows &amp;amp; bond markets&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/crude-oil-price-is-heading-back-up-just-like-i-wrote-earlier.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/crude-oil-price-is-heading-back-up-just-like-i-wrote-earlier" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-13 17:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🚨🛢️ crude oil up to almost $70&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;and this while the US dollar index is also up&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;over a month and a half ago I told you that it&amp;#x27;s going to resume the uptrend - and this thesis has been confirmed again and again&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;wait &amp;amp; watch what comes next - I wrote about that as well 😁&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/crude-oil-up-to-almost-70.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/crude-oil-up-to-almost-70" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-29 20:39&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇷🇺 oil up is GOOD news for Russia &amp;amp; Ruble&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;every surplus above $60/barrel of Urals oil increases FX reserves in NWF (Yuan or gold) - an interplay between MoF and CBR&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;exporters pay taxes in Ruble - so higher buying pressure&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;mark my words:&lt;br/&gt;👉 you&amp;#x27;ll see USD/RUB exchange rate fall&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/oil-up-is-good-news-for-russia-ruble.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/oil-up-is-good-news-for-russia-ruble" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-07-29 21:34&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;a kind reminder that higher oil prices benefit Russia and Ruble&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;U.S. puts sanctions on Russia --&amp;gt; Oil price increases --&amp;gt; Ruble price increases&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This is driven by how Russia&amp;#x27;s National Wealth Fund (NWF) operates, plus the fact that both NWF and Russia&amp;#x27;s Central Bank have almost no exposure to USD&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/a-kind-reminder-that-higher-oil-prices-benefit-russia-and.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/a-kind-reminder-that-higher-oil-prices-benefit-russia-and" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-24 22:47&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-8" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/the-market-is-never-wrong-8</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 24 Oct 2025 21:47:07 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>All reserve currencies achieved reserve status under gold or silver standards</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/all-reserve-currencies-achieved-reserve-status-under-gold-or</link><description>And some still think that Bitcoin will be the next reserve currency. Judging by the actions of the sovereigns positioning their local monetary units for reserve currency position that is highly…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;And some still think that Bitcoin will be the next reserve currency. Judging by the actions of the sovereigns positioning their local monetary units for reserve currency position that is highly unlikely 😁&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;More specifically, China &amp;amp; BRICS are heavily buying gold, and they have openly discussed partly gold-backed currencies several times. In the EU, the ECB is very clear on their stance against adding Bitcoin to their reserves.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Bitcoin doesn&amp;#x27;t exhibit the characteristics necessary for a reserve currency. If you believe that it does, then you need to start by explaining how it would integrate into the current financial system. Do not forget to consider Central Banks, wholesale debt markets and refinancing cycles. A potential role that Bitcoin may take is as collateral, for example in money markets. The problem is, that you will be inadvertently running into very large haircuts and low LTVs. So unless Bitcoin concisely keeps yielding higher highs, you&amp;#x27;d be better off by using higher-quality collateral, such as government bonds or even equities.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Another point comes down to risk. The more Bitcoin is used the more risky it becomes. Sure, you can say that the network also growth with usage, but in case Central Banks start holding Bitcoin - it becomes a geopolitical liability. It will become a matter of time before disruptive attack and compromise of private keys. Also, &amp;gt;90% of the buy volume of Bitcoin is in USD or its derivatives, such as USD-pegged stablecoins. So it&amp;#x27;s USD that&amp;#x27;s mostly invested there, not euros, renminbi or others. This makes Bitcoin extremely exposed to USD currency risk.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Gold and silver have a much more modest exposure to the risks above. You don’t have to believe me - just look at the history. Since 500 BCE it&amp;#x27;s mostly been gold and/or silver - and Bitcoin doesn&amp;#x27;t change that.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Accounts on X that relentlessly promote the idea of Bitcoin being money, and better money than gold fail to address these points.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/all-reserve-currencies-achieved-reserve-status-under-gold-or.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/all-reserve-currencies-achieved-reserve-status-under-gold-or" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-25 07:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/all-reserve-currencies-achieved-reserve-status-under-gold-or" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/all-reserve-currencies-achieved-reserve-status-under-gold-or</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 25 Oct 2025 06:54:38 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>So the Fed will fully resume Treasury purchasing, as a part of their balance sheet expansion starting December 1st 2025</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/so-the-fed-will-fully-resume-treasury-purchasing-as-a-part</link><description>Not only all maturing Treasuries will be rolled over at auctions, but also all Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) principal will be reinvested into Treasury bills (&lt;1 year duration)  This will lower…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Not only all maturing Treasuries will be rolled over at auctions, but also all Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) principal will be reinvested into Treasury bills (&amp;lt;1 year duration)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This will lower the duration of the assets on the Fed&amp;#x27;s balance sheet and contribute to debt monetization&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;But that&amp;#x27;s not a surprise. 3 months ago I explained why interest rate cuts and the end of QT/start of QE is imminent&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/so-the-fed-will-fully-resume-treasury-purchasing-as-a-part.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-the-fed-will-fully-resume-treasury-purchasing-as-a-part" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-29 19:21&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/so-the-fed-will-fully-resume-treasury-purchasing-as-a-part" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/so-the-fed-will-fully-resume-treasury-purchasing-as-a-part</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 29 Oct 2025 19:21:58 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Tokenizing European Long-Term Investment Funds (ELTIF 2.0) on a Public Blockchain</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/tokenizing-european-long-term-investment-funds-eltif-2-0-on</link><description>Currently I'm working on a practical framework for tokenizing European Long Term Investment Fund (ELTIF) instruments on a smart contract-enabled public blockchain like Ethereum. While there have…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Currently I&amp;#x27;m working on a practical framework for tokenizing European Long Term Investment Fund (ELTIF) instruments on a smart contract-enabled public blockchain like Ethereum. While there have been some ELTIF tokenization initiatives by some funds in the EU - they all used non-public (e.g. in-house) distributed ledger technology (DLT) solutions, with scarce public information on the implementation details.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The idea of fully on-chain ELTIF is attractive for several reasons:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ It taps into trillions of USD of readily available on-chain liquidity&lt;br/&gt;➖ It reduces processing, compliance, distribution and infrastructure costs&lt;br/&gt;➖It&amp;#x27;s fully compliant with the existing EU legislation&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;In terms of DeFi, bridging the real world financial system on-chain enables investment vehicles, which are fully compliant with the legal systems in the EU, and by extension most jurisdictions. This increases the value of the whole DeFi ecosystem, by making it more attractive for institutional and retail investment.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;To date, there isn&amp;#x27;t a clear and practical framework for operating an ELTIF fund on a public, permissionless DLT. Such a framework must encapsulate not only the legal aspects (those already exist - the relevant regulations themselves!), but also the technical details of operating the ELTIF fund via smart contracts, while remaining fully compliant with the EU legislation. This is the gap that I’m aiming to address.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I’ll be focusing on real-estate based ELTIFs - where the fund pools money from investors, invests it into real estate and collects yield from rents and appreciation, as it goes inline with my current area of work.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/tokenizing-european-long-term-investment-funds-eltif-2-0-on.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/tokenizing-european-long-term-investment-funds-eltif-2-0-on" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-30 11:30&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/tokenizing-european-long-term-investment-funds-eltif-2-0-on" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/tokenizing-european-long-term-investment-funds-eltif-2-0-on</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 30 Oct 2025 11:30:14 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Is the rotation from Gold to Bitcoin in the room with us? 😉</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/is-the-rotation-from-gold-to-bitcoin-in-the-room-with-us</link><description>Over the past 2 weeks hundreds of X accounts with large following have been posting about an imminent rotation from gold to Bitcoin, once gold reaches a correction level.  Their main argument seemed…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Over the past 2 weeks hundreds of X accounts with large following have been posting about an imminent rotation from gold to Bitcoin, once gold reaches a correction level.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Their main argument seemed to be based on Bitcoin&amp;#x27;s historic price correlation - essentially &amp;quot;here are some select occurrences from the past where this happened, so it will happen now&amp;quot;. Many of them went as far as claiming that gold has topped in this cycle (it hasn&amp;#x27;t).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Local top for gold was reached, but rotation didn&amp;#x27;t happen. As I&amp;#x27;ve been alluding to over this same timeframe - the reality in financial market is seldom this simplistic.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;In general, you should be very wary of market thesis that are too abstract, or fail to consider the macro picture.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/is-the-rotation-from-gold-to-bitcoin-in-the-room-with-us.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/is-the-rotation-from-gold-to-bitcoin-in-the-room-with-us" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-30 21:42&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/is-the-rotation-from-gold-to-bitcoin-in-the-room-with-us" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/is-the-rotation-from-gold-to-bitcoin-in-the-room-with-us</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 30 Oct 2025 21:42:20 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Why would a Central Bank hold Bitcoin in reserves?</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/why-would-a-central-bank-hold-bitcoin-in-reserves</link><description>1. Even assuming that Bitcoin is an inflation hedge - it still doesn't mean that Central Banks should hold it. What would be the purpose of that? Central Banks are not commercial institutions - they…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;1. Even assuming that Bitcoin is an inflation hedge - it still doesn&amp;#x27;t mean that Central Banks should hold it. What would be the purpose of that? Central Banks are not commercial institutions - they hold assets for very specific reasons (e.g. FX rate stabilization).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;2. You may have misunderstood me. I said that Bitcoin isn&amp;#x27;t money - but that by itself doesn&amp;#x27;t mean that Central Banks shouldn&amp;#x27;t hold it. FIAT currencies aren&amp;#x27;t money either. Neither are government bonds. BUT - those bonds or currencies generally don&amp;#x27;t crash &amp;gt;50% on cycle tops. So it&amp;#x27;s the fact that it&amp;#x27;s not money, combined with the other points I mentioned here and in the article that i linked&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;3. Kaspa isn&amp;#x27;t money. It certainly hasn&amp;#x27;t been long enough to be classified as money, nor it has enough intrinsic value. It carries the same set of technology risks as other cryptocurrencies- and even without looking at the chart - I can tell you that it&amp;#x27;s correlated to the rest of the crypto market. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I am a big fan of crypto, but we need to keep it real 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Thousands of accounts on X with large following shill Bitcoin/Crypto non-stop, with little reasoning behind it. They either do it for pay, engagement or a mix of both.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;You don&amp;#x27;t have to look far - usually just search for &amp;quot;gold&amp;quot; on their profile and you&amp;#x27;ll find something like this (see screenshot).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;If you want to understand how Bitcoin is not gold, it will never be gold, and it will never replace gold - read this article: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-needs-gold-gold-doesnt-need-bitcoin.html" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-needs-gold-gold-doesnt-need-bitcoin.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/why-would-a-central-bank-hold-bitcoin-in-reserves.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/why-would-a-central-bank-hold-bitcoin-in-reserves" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-01 12:13&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/why-would-a-central-bank-hold-bitcoin-in-reserves" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/why-would-a-central-bank-hold-bitcoin-in-reserves</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 01 Nov 2025 12:13:02 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Multiple governments have seized Bitcoin</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/multiple-governments-have-seized-bitcoin</link><description>In fact, more Bitcoin has been seized than gold in the U.S. It's really not hard to google this, but here are some examples:  - Silk Road takedown (2013–2015) - ≈175K BTC - "Individual X" Silk Road…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;In fact, more Bitcoin has been seized than gold in the U.S. It&amp;#x27;s really not hard to google this, but here are some examples:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;- Silk Road takedown (2013–2015) - ≈175K BTC&lt;br/&gt;- &amp;quot;Individual X&amp;quot; Silk Road stash (2020) - ≈75K BTC&lt;br/&gt;- Bitfinex-hack recovery (2022) - &amp;gt;94K BTC&lt;br/&gt;- Movie2K piracy case - ≈50K BTC&lt;br/&gt;- Finland Customs seizures - ≈2K BTC&lt;br/&gt;- Netherlands money-laundering case - ≈2.5K BTC&lt;br/&gt;- China PlusToken crackdown ≈200K BTC&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Regarding gold - yes, it was seized in the past in the US, but it was at a much smaller scale than you imagine.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The publicly documented, conservative floor for government-seized BTC is ≈700K BTC (≈$77B today), which is already above the $58–110B value range for U.S. public gold coin surrendered in 1933–34.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;If your argument is that Bitcoin is better than gold, because it&amp;#x27;s more private/seizure resistant - you are wrong.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;If you think that by holding Bitcoin you&amp;#x27;re immune to U.S. government policies you&amp;#x27;re also wrong, as more than 90% of all Bitcoin buying volume comes from USD or USD derivatives (including stablecoins).&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/multiple-governments-have-seized-bitcoin.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/multiple-governments-have-seized-bitcoin" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-01 15:24&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/multiple-governments-have-seized-bitcoin" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/multiple-governments-have-seized-bitcoin</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 01 Nov 2025 15:24:21 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Coffee outperformed Gold in the last 5 years</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/coffee-outperformed-gold-in-the-last-5-years</link><description>Would it be sound to conclude that coffee beans are better money and investment than gold, and that Central Banks should hold coffee &amp; its derivatives in reserve assets?  Bitcoin has less than 20…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Would it be sound to conclude that coffee beans are better money and investment than gold, and that Central Banks should hold coffee &amp;amp; its derivatives in reserve assets?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Bitcoin has less than 20 years of price action, and it started trading at a negligent price. Gold has been money for over 5000 years and its earliest recorded price per ounce is of ≈100 days of labor&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;A better question is whether Bitcoin will continue to consistently outperform gold over the next 20 years. *Consistency* is key - it must be at least a store of value, including shorter-term. If you get caught in the typical &amp;gt;50% price drops - you may pay a high opportunity cost.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;It&amp;#x27;s not just whether Bitcoin will increase more in price than gold in the next 20 years, but also how severe and long-lasting Bitcoin&amp;#x27;s corrections are.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Imagine you buy Bitcoin today and it goes into a bear market with a significant value loss in the next 4 years. In those 4 years - many investment opportunities may arise, such as in real estate, equities, commodities or bonds. If your capital is locked in Bitcoin throughout that period - that&amp;#x27;s an opportunity cost.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Gold doesn&amp;#x27;t come with those shortcomings. There is a reason why all world reserve currencies started on a gold and/or silver standards.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;There is no free lunch in the markets. Higher return is almost unanimously correlated with higher risk. Quantitatively Bitcoin is high risk- it&amp;#x27;s not a matter of opinion.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This doesn&amp;#x27;t mean that Bitcoin is a bad idea, but it also doesn&amp;#x27;t mean that Bitcoin is a better idea than gold. It does, however mean, that Bitcoin isn&amp;#x27;t a replacement for gold.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;And now you understand what makes gold so special. You don&amp;#x27;t have to believe me - believe centuries of price action and human history.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/coffee-outperformed-gold-in-the-last-5-years.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/coffee-outperformed-gold-in-the-last-5-years" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-03 20:30&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/coffee-outperformed-gold-in-the-last-5-years" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/coffee-outperformed-gold-in-the-last-5-years</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 03 Nov 2025 20:30:57 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Illya's Threads and Thoughts Now Uses Slugs In URLs</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/illyas-threads-and-thoughts-now-uses-slugs-in-urls</link><description>I've extended my static site with short (thoughts) and longer-form (threads) posts to have their URLs structured in the form of a slug.  Before, each individual thought’s and thread's HTML page name…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;I&amp;#x27;ve extended my static site with short (thoughts) and longer-form (threads) posts to have their URLs structured in the form of a slug.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Before, each individual thought’s and thread&amp;#x27;s HTML page name (and by extension, its URL) was based on the timestamp of the post. Now, it’s based on the first line of the post.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So now the URLs are nicer looking, more human readable, and much more SEO and LLM friendly.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;For example &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/@1761122490-0" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/@1761122490-0&lt;/a&gt; becomes &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-needs-gold-gold-doesnt-need-bitcoin" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-needs-gold-gold-doesnt-need-bitcoin&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;You will notice that the former URL still functions via a redirect to the new slug-based URL. This is because there were already thousands of pages indexed in search engines, and a smaller amount of third-party links (mostly other platforms, comments, direct shares and intra-links).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This was on the future TODO list since pretty much the start of the project, but it was purposefully delayed until the amount of content justified it. Also ChatGPT kept bugging me to update to slugs for a better SEO&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;From an architectural perspective everything is still fully static, automated and straightforward:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ The slug is constructed by getting the first line of the post, sanitizing it and adding dashes. It can have up to 60 characters in length&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ The redirects are static. There is a Python list with hardcoded IDs for all previously generated threads and thoughts&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/illyas-threads-and-thoughts-now-uses-slugs-in-urls.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/illyas-threads-and-thoughts-now-uses-slugs-in-urls" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-04 20:07&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/illyas-threads-and-thoughts-now-uses-slugs-in-urls" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/illyas-threads-and-thoughts-now-uses-slugs-in-urls</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 04 Nov 2025 20:07:44 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>European Investment Funds Explained: UCITS, AIFs, AIFMD and the ELTIF Regime</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/european-investment-funds-explained-ucits-aifs-aifmd-and-the</link><description>As I’ve previously written, I am working on a framework for tokenizing European Long Term Investment Fund operation (ELTIF 2.0) on a public, smart-contract enabled blockchain like Ethereum. You can…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;As I’ve previously written, I am working on a framework for tokenizing European Long Term Investment Fund operation (ELTIF 2.0) on a public, smart-contract enabled blockchain like Ethereum. You can read more about it here: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/tokenizing-european-long-term-investment-funds-eltif-2-0-on" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/tokenizing-european-long-term-investment-funds-eltif-2-0-on&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This is financial markets legislation heavy topic, and it involves several regulations and directives, each one meticulously outlining rules and exceptions which together form a framework for operating various investment funds in the European Union.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I come across many negative commentaries regarding EU regulations in general, but not so many explaining those regulations. In general, there is not much information covering this topic on the internet, and if you ask ChatGPT to explain it - it will likely take you several iterations and back-and-forth to understand it.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Since this falls under my current area of work - I thought that it would be useful to share the knowledge, and provide a clear and concise starting point for anyone looking into investment funds legislation and practical application in the European Union.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So first of all let’s start with the definition of a “fund”. EU law doesn’t have a unanimous definition for what constitutes a fund. Instead, it defines rules for two collective investment schemes:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ Undertakings for Collective Investment In Transferable Securities (UCITS) defined in Directive 2009/65/EC&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs) defined in AIFMD Directive 2011/61/EU&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;UCITS is defined as an undertaking whose sole purpose is collective investment in transferable securities and other liquid financial assets, with the holders of UCITS units/shares being able to redeem/repurchase them on demand out of UCITS’s assets/holdings. The strict list of eligible assets is defined in Article 50 of Directive 2009/65/EC and it includes:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ Transferable securities, which are securities that are negotiable/tradable on capital markets, such as shares/equities and bonds.&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Money market instruments&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ Deposits with credit institutions&lt;br/&gt;4️⃣ Certain financial derivatives&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;As per Article 5, a UCITS must be managed by “management company”, which is defined as a company whose regular business is to manage UCITS (Article 2(1)(b)), or set up as a self-managed investment company under Articles 29-31. As per Article 6(1) this management company must be authorized. Before a UCITS is authorized its’s management company must be authorized.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Alternative Investment Fund (AIF) is defined in Directive on Alternative Investment Fund Managers (AIFMD) to encompass all undertakings that raise capital from investors, invest according to a clearly defined investment policy for the benefit of the investors, and do not require UCITS authorization. In this sense, AIF is a functional classification, and it explicitly captures other collective investments that do not fall under the UCITS definition, as per Directive 2009/65/EC.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;As a general rule, anything that’s a collective investment undertaking, but not a UCITS is an AIF. That definition comes directly from AIFMD Article 4.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;An AIF must always be managed by an Alternative Investment Fund Manager (AIFM). Under Article 4(1)(b) of AIFMD, an AIFM is defined as “legal persons whose regular business is managing one or more AIFs”. Article 5 from AIFMD further reinforces this idea by requiring every AIF to have a single AIFM legally responsible for its compliance. This management entity can either be external (external AIFM) or the AIF may be managed internally with the AIF itself obtaining AIFM authorization. Article 6(1) mandates that no entity may manage an AIF, unless they are authorized as an AIFM (i.e. the managing entity must be authorized). The AIFM in an AIF is equivalent to the “management company” in UCITS.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;European Long Term Investment Fund (ELTIF), defined in  Regulation (EU) 2015/760, and later amended by Regulation (EU) 2023/606 , is a type of Alternative Investment Fund (AIF). All ELTIF are AIF, but in order for an AIF to be ELTIF, it must meet the requirements outlined in the regulation and is subject for authorization.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;As such, under the EU law, ELTIF is not a distinct class of funds/collective investment schemes, but rather a legal label that an AIF can apply for. Since an ELTIF is an AIF, it is also managed by an AIFM.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So what distinguishes an ELTIF from a “regular” AIF? In short, it’s the type of assets that the collective investment undertaking holds. Among others, an ELTIF must invest ≥55% of its capital into eligible assets, which include real assets (e.g. real estate) and STS securitizations. Moreover, an ELTIF cannot invest into commodities, the use of financial derivatives is only allowed for hedging and there are limits on borrowing/leverage.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So why would one bother with the ELTIF label? Well, having the ELTIF label means your collective investment undertaking product is available to retail (i.e. to non-professional investors) EU-wide. An ELTIF allows you to offer illiquid investments to retail in the whole European Union&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;In conclusion -  EU law defines a fund as a collective investment undertaking, and it can be of two types: UCITS or AIF. An ELTIF is a type of AIF, which comes with retail EU passport benefits.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This article doesn’t aim to be exhaustive, but rather to be used as the basis for forming a mental model on the legal structure of funds in the European Union, and how the ELTIF fits into the framework.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/european-investment-funds-explained-ucits-aifs-aifmd-and-the.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/european-investment-funds-explained-ucits-aifs-aifmd-and-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-05 20:10&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/european-investment-funds-explained-ucits-aifs-aifmd-and-the" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/european-investment-funds-explained-ucits-aifs-aifmd-and-the</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 05 Nov 2025 20:10:41 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Gold is within the fabric of money, not just Central Banks</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/gold-is-within-the-fabric-of-money-not-just-central-banks</link><description>A lot of posts on X frame Central Banks as malevolent institutions, and by some form of conspiracy they hold gold in their reserve accounts. And apparently not holding gold is a step towards…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;A lot of posts on X frame Central Banks as malevolent institutions, and by some form of conspiracy they hold gold in their reserve accounts. And apparently not holding gold is a step towards monetary freedom - even more if you forego an atomic element (Au) for a cryptographic computer algorithm (Bitcoin).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;A more productive approach is asking why do Central Banks chose gold over all other commodities and assets. Every single world reserve currency, without exception, started on a gold and/or silver standard. Gold has been used as money for over 5000 years.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I&amp;#x27;ve written several articles on what makes gold so special and how Bitcoin is not a replacement for gold. I&amp;#x27;ll leave them linked below&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-is-within-the-fabric-of-money-not-just-central-banks.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-is-within-the-fabric-of-money-not-just-central-banks" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-02 14:59&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;My article on Gold vs Bitcoin, and how Bitcoin needs Gold, but Gold doesn&amp;#x27;t need Bitcoin: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-needs-gold-gold-doesnt-need-bitcoin.html" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-needs-gold-gold-doesnt-need-bitcoin.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/my-article-on-gold-vs-bitcoin-and-how-bitcoin-needs-gold-but.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/my-article-on-gold-vs-bitcoin-and-how-bitcoin-needs-gold-but" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-05 21:14&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;My article on how all reserve currencies started on a gold and/or silver standard: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/all-reserve-currencies-achieved-reserve-status-under-gold-or" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/all-reserve-currencies-achieved-reserve-status-under-gold-or&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/my-article-on-how-all-reserve-currencies-started-on-a-gold.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/my-article-on-how-all-reserve-currencies-started-on-a-gold" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-05 21:25&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/gold-is-within-the-fabric-of-money-not-just-central-banks" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/gold-is-within-the-fabric-of-money-not-just-central-banks</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 05 Nov 2025 21:25:05 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Bitcoin is not just for speculative gambling</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-is-not-just-for-speculative-gambling</link><description>Nation state-linked companies are already settling their transactions in Bitcoin. Sure, they're using Bitcoin only as an intermediary, not as the end settlement unit of account, but this takes…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Nation state-linked companies are already settling their transactions in Bitcoin. Sure, they&amp;#x27;re using Bitcoin only as an intermediary, not as the end settlement unit of account, but this takes Bitcoin&amp;#x27;s utility far beyond gambling.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Just because Bitcoin isn&amp;#x27;t replacing gold as money, doesn&amp;#x27;t mean that it&amp;#x27;s a failure. Just because Bitcoin bitcoin collapsed below 100K, doesn&amp;#x27;t mean it won&amp;#x27;t come back higher (liquidity cycles suggest it will).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Extremes are better for engagement, but reality is very inclusive.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/bitcoin-is-not-just-for-speculative-gambling.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/bitcoin-is-not-just-for-speculative-gambling" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-06 15:07&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-is-not-just-for-speculative-gambling" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-is-not-just-for-speculative-gambling</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 06 Nov 2025 15:07:45 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Gold as a percentage of balance sheet size in Central Banks (ranked):</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/gold-as-a-percentage-of-balance-sheet-size-in-central-banks</link><description>🇯🇵 Japan (MoF + BoJ): ≈2.4% 🇨🇳 China (PBoC): ≈4.5% 🇺🇸 U.S. (Fed gold certificates): ≈15.9% 🇪🇺 European Union (ECB + Eurosystem): ≈19.4% 🇷🇺 Russia (BoR): ≈36.1%  All of the above will expand their…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇯🇵 Japan (MoF + BoJ): ≈2.4%&lt;br/&gt;🇨🇳 China (PBoC): ≈4.5%&lt;br/&gt;🇺🇸 U.S. (Fed gold certificates): ≈15.9%&lt;br/&gt;🇪🇺 European Union (ECB + Eurosystem): ≈19.4%&lt;br/&gt;🇷🇺 Russia (BoR): ≈36.1%&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;All of the above will expand their balance sheets, but it&amp;#x27;s mostly China &amp;amp; Russia actively buying more gold.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Conclusions you can take from here:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ China&amp;#x27;s gold holdings are relatively small when compared to their Central Bank&amp;#x27;s balance sheet size, and given their efforts to promote renminbi as the invoice currency worldwide, you can expect PBoC to continue their gold purchases for the medium-long term. The gold share must at least double to come close to the current reserve currency - the U.S. dollar. All reserve currencies started on a gold and/or silver standard - and the pressure towards this direction won&amp;#x27;t be different for renminbi/yuan. When the USD became the world reserve currency with the Bretton-Woods agreement - gold certificates accounted for ≈40% of the Fed&amp;#x27;s balance sheet.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ Russia has built up a massive balance sheet capacity for the future. Once the international trade markets with Russia re-open, there will be a plenty of reserves to back-up a massive wave of Ruble credit. Expect Russian capital markets to rally then.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ European Union has a healthy relative position. Given that the Euro is currently the closest alternative to the U.S. Dollar - it&amp;#x27;s a good idea to both, expand gold reserves and promote capital markets. The latter is an explicit goal via the Capital Markets Union (CMU). Given that EU will further expand the balance sheet, it&amp;#x27;s necessary to increase the gold reserves - repricing won&amp;#x27;t be enough. Gold will make Euro more attractive, and with it the FX holdings of Euro by sovereigns.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-as-a-percentage-of-balance-sheet-size-in-central-banks.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-as-a-percentage-of-balance-sheet-size-in-central-banks" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-10 16:26&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/gold-as-a-percentage-of-balance-sheet-size-in-central-banks" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/gold-as-a-percentage-of-balance-sheet-size-in-central-banks</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 10 Nov 2025 16:26:09 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>gold's lowest possible bottom for current correction is ≈$3900 (area)</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/golds-lowest-possible-bottom-for-current-correction-is-3900</link><description>the uptrend will resume soon. given the FOMC meeting next week - if that bottom arrives it should be very soon - within the next week  * this is trend analysis done in 5 mins, but likely a correct…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;the uptrend will resume soon. given the FOMC meeting next week - if that bottom arrives it should be very soon - within the next week&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;* this is trend analysis done in 5 mins, but likely a correct one 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/golds-lowest-possible-bottom-for-current-correction-is-3900.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/golds-lowest-possible-bottom-for-current-correction-is-3900" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-24 08:04&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;GOLD: look for rejection at ≈$4155&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if gold&amp;#x27;s price get rejected at that price level again - you&amp;#x27;ll likely see the fall to ≈$3900 target I described in my previous post&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;it&amp;#x27;s a good idea to have the limit buy orders ready 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-look-for-rejection-at-4155.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-look-for-rejection-at-4155" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-24 15:14&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;My prediction on gold&amp;#x27;s bottom was correct: ≈$3900 ✅&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;You can direct anyone who is saying that gold and silver have topped to my posts.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;If you think that gold and silver have topped - I&amp;#x27;m really curious to hear your thesis. I&amp;#x27;ve laid mine out extensively in prior writings.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/my-prediction-on-golds-bottom-was-correct-3900.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/my-prediction-on-golds-bottom-was-correct-3900" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-12 16:47&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/golds-lowest-possible-bottom-for-current-correction-is-3900" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/golds-lowest-possible-bottom-for-current-correction-is-3900</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 12 Nov 2025 16:47:29 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>silver's current move is already up &gt;25%. it's better to have a pullback somewhere around the current level</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/silvers-current-move-is-already-up-25-its-better-to-have-a</link><description>it can move up even further, extending the total move to ≈60%, but then you’ll get a larger and longer lasting pull back  when silver moves in smaller increments, it has shorter-lasting…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;it can move up even further, extending the total move to ≈60%, but then you’ll get a larger and longer lasting pull back&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;when silver moves in smaller increments, it has shorter-lasting consolidations/pullbacks. so this is what i mean by &amp;quot;better&amp;quot;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/silvers-current-move-is-already-up-25-its-better-to-have-a.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/silvers-current-move-is-already-up-25-its-better-to-have-a" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-09-22 20:01&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;1 month ago I wrote that silver could extend its current move to ≈60% from the ≈$34.5 price level&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;silver topped exactly there at ≈$54.5&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;now my next notes:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;treat the pullback and any price consolidation action as a buying opportunity&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;during the next 6 months long positions entered in this area will be in profit. likely sooner, but 180 days provides a higher confidence timeline&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/1-month-ago-i-wrote-that-silver-could-extend-its-current.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/1-month-ago-i-wrote-that-silver-could-extend-its-current" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-21 20:34&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;silver could pullback to ≈$40 before continuing its uptrend&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this represents a ≈27% correction from the top&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;this is the lowest possible bottom for this move - it probably won&amp;#x27;t go this low. if it does, the move will happen fast, so have your buy limit orders ready. next week is FOMC interest rate decision. the Fed will cut the rates by another 25bps, and other things equal - it&amp;#x27;s positive price pressure for silver&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;if the price breaks below $47, it will likely fall closer to $45. expect a stronger support in the $43-45 area&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;overall, any prices in the vicinity of September 15th 2025 prices is a GREAT buying opportunity&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;* keep in mind the total 75 bps interest rate cut by the Fed this year is already in progress of being priced in - the market doesn&amp;#x27;t wait for the official announcement. this is one of the reasons why you had so much upside price volatility in the last month&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/silver-could-pullback-to-40-before-continuing-its-uptrend.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/silver-could-pullback-to-40-before-continuing-its-uptrend" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-10-21 21:20&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;My prediction on Silver&amp;#x27;s bottom was correct: ≈$43-45 ✅&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The uptrend goes on. The price will encounter more corrections along the way, but the bottoms I described previously remain valid.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Like for gold, I would re-analyze critically all sources that were claiming that the bullrun for silver is over.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/my-prediction-on-silvers-bottom-was-correct-43-45.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/my-prediction-on-silvers-bottom-was-correct-43-45" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-13 11:48&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;As I&amp;#x27;ve written earlier today, Silver will encounter corrections&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;These are all buying opportunities - as is the whole price range within current larger pullback. The price bottoms I written about remain unchanged. The uptrend will resume&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The same is true for gold&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/as-ive-written-earlier-today-silver-will-encounter.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/as-ive-written-earlier-today-silver-will-encounter" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-13 23:09&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/silvers-current-move-is-already-up-25-its-better-to-have-a" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/silvers-current-move-is-already-up-25-its-better-to-have-a</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 13 Nov 2025 23:09:04 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>This is how The Soviet Union kickstarted Eurodollar markets in the 1950's</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/this-is-how-the-soviet-union-kickstarted-eurodollar-markets</link><description>Eurodollars are USD deposits held at banks outside the U.S. Originally, they were held mostly in European jurisdictions, thus the "Euro" in the name.  URSS needed U.S. dollars for international…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Eurodollars are USD deposits held at banks outside the U.S. Originally, they were held mostly in European jurisdictions, thus the &amp;quot;Euro&amp;quot; in the name.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;URSS needed U.S. dollars for international trade, but they didn&amp;#x27;t trust keeping balances directly in New York, as they feared that U.S. would freeze or seize those deposits.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So URSS placed their USD deposits in European banks, often via Soviet-linked banks. Those European banks then re-deposited or lent out those dollars to other banks and institutions.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I&amp;#x27;ve written extensively how the policies of the current U.S. administration are a negative for the USD. Asian countries have been progressively moving away from USD, and this is a sign from Europe in that direction (but don&amp;#x27;t expect heavy de-dollarization in the near future). &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Overall, I view this as a net positive for the sovereignty of EU/Europe as a whole. A more developed financial system infrastructure is crucial for attracting the use of Euro, which is already the 2nd most used currency in the world.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/this-is-how-the-soviet-union-kickstarted-eurodollar-markets.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/this-is-how-the-soviet-union-kickstarted-eurodollar-markets" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-14 14:03&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/this-is-how-the-soviet-union-kickstarted-eurodollar-markets" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/this-is-how-the-soviet-union-kickstarted-eurodollar-markets</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 14 Nov 2025 14:03:01 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>In July I wrote a primer on the mechanics by which the Fed steers the prevailing interest rates in the economy.</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/in-july-i-wrote-a-primer-on-the-mechanics-by-which-the-fed</link><description>It covers the ON RRP, IORB, Discount Rate and SRF channels, explaining how together they set a corridor with upper and lower limits for the effective rate.  Prior to today the article reading…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;It covers the ON RRP, IORB, Discount Rate and SRF channels, explaining how together they set a corridor with upper and lower limits for the effective rate.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Prior to today the article reading experience was subpar, due to the amount of supporting images - the thread is composed of several shorter posts, and each one came with an image.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I&amp;#x27;ve made it a lot more readable by removing most of the images&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/in-july-i-wrote-a-primer-on-the-mechanics-by-which-the-fed.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/in-july-i-wrote-a-primer-on-the-mechanics-by-which-the-fed" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-13 22:12&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;You can read the article here: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/how-does-the-federal-reserve-set-interest-rates" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/how-does-the-federal-reserve-set-interest-rates&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/you-can-read-the-article-here-https-illya-sh-threads-how.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/you-can-read-the-article-here-https-illya-sh-threads-how" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-14 16:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/in-july-i-wrote-a-primer-on-the-mechanics-by-which-the-fed" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/in-july-i-wrote-a-primer-on-the-mechanics-by-which-the-fed</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 14 Nov 2025 16:00:45 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Russia will buy Silver as a strategic reserve until 2027</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/russia-will-buy-silver-as-a-strategic-reserve-until-2027</link><description>I'm not speculating on anything, this comes directly from the Russian legislation, namely the Federal Law № 419-ФЗ (in Russian/cyrilic: Федеральный закон от 30 ноября 2024 г. № 419-ФЗ) whose budget…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;I&amp;#x27;m not speculating on anything, this comes directly from the Russian legislation, namely the Federal Law № 419-ФЗ (in Russian/cyrilic: Федеральный закон от 30 ноября 2024 г. № 419-ФЗ) whose budget tables for 2025–2027 allocate ≈51.5 billion rubles (≈$640M) per year as budget for the &amp;quot;acquisition of state reserves of precious metals and precious stones&amp;quot;.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Silver falls explicitly under the definition of &amp;quot;precious metals&amp;quot;. More specifically, under Russian framework law № 41-ФЗ the term &amp;quot;precious metals&amp;quot; (&amp;quot;драгоценные металлы&amp;quot;) is explicitly defined as gold, silver, platinum and the metals of the platinum group.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;In addition to the above, in the official explanatory note (пояснительная записка) to the draft of Federal Law № 419-ФЗ the Russian Ministry of Finance explicitly states that the plan is to acquire refined gold, refined silver, refined platinum and refined palladium for strategic goals. More specifically, the aim is to increase the share of &amp;quot;highly liquid valuables&amp;quot; in the State Fund of Precious Metals and Precious Stones of the Russian Federation (Госфонд России).&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/russia-will-buy-silver-as-a-strategic-reserve-until-2027.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/russia-will-buy-silver-as-a-strategic-reserve-until-2027" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-14 19:14&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/russia-will-buy-silver-as-a-strategic-reserve-until-2027" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/russia-will-buy-silver-as-a-strategic-reserve-until-2027</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 14 Nov 2025 19:14:59 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Just wait until Bitcoin hype accounts find out that Czechia has not adapted the Euro, so it's not a part of the Eurozone.</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/just-wait-until-bitcoin-hype-accounts-find-out-that-czechia</link><description>Thus, the Czech National Bank (CNB) is a part of European System of Central Banks (ESCB), but not a full Eurosystem central bank, so it's not represented in and not bound by the ECB Governing…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Thus, the Czech National Bank (CNB) is a part of European System of Central Banks (ESCB), but not a full Eurosystem central bank, so it&amp;#x27;s not represented in and not bound by the ECB Governing Council&amp;#x27;s monetary policy decisions.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;No Eurozone National Central Bank (NCB) is holding Bitcoin in their reserves, and ECB&amp;#x27;s current policy rejects the idea of BTC as a reserve asset.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Watch what they do, not what Bitcoin hype media says.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/just-wait-until-bitcoin-hype-accounts-find-out-that-czechia.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/just-wait-until-bitcoin-hype-accounts-find-out-that-czechia" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-15 17:12&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/just-wait-until-bitcoin-hype-accounts-find-out-that-czechia" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/just-wait-until-bitcoin-hype-accounts-find-out-that-czechia</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 15 Nov 2025 17:12:36 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>MicroStrategy Is Dependent On Refinancing Capacity, Not Bitcoin Price</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/microstrategy-is-dependent-on-refinancing-capacity-not</link><description>MSTR won't have to sell Bitcoin if BTC price goes down, they'll have to sell Bitcoin if they're unable to acquire funding along the maturity of their debt wall.   MicroStrategy is essentially a…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;MSTR won&amp;#x27;t have to sell Bitcoin if BTC price goes down, they&amp;#x27;ll have to sell Bitcoin if they&amp;#x27;re unable to acquire funding along the maturity of their debt wall. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;MicroStrategy is essentially a leveraged trade on Bitcoin, based on the following cycle:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ Acquire funding via debt or equity&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Buy Bitcoin&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ Repeat&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This cycle works for as long as MSTR is able to obtain funding. Once funding becomes unavailable (i.e. market isn&amp;#x27;t willing to lend at favorable interest rates), funding must come from asset liquidation (i.e. the sale of Bitcoin).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The availability of funding is mostly dependent on Bitcoin&amp;#x27;s price. As long as Bitcoin price and trend is favorable around the dates when the debt wall matures - MSTR should be able to continue their leveraged trade. MSTR share price vs Bitcoin NAV is also important. If MSTR trades a premium over Bitcoin&amp;#x27;s NAV it allows Microstrategy to short their own equity and long Bitcoin.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;However, an unfavorable Bitcoin price action environment (e.g. during a bear market) that coincides with debt repayment obligations may trigger the unwinding of this leveraged position, forcing MSTR to sell Bitcoin, thus putting further downwards price pressure on Bitcoin, which lowers Microstrategy&amp;#x27;s equity even more, which makes lender even less likely to lend. The end result is an even more degraded funding capacity, which at the limit leads to bankruptcy.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Debt starts maturing from 2028 (≈$1B), but the most significant portion of ≈70%/$5.8B matures in 2029-2030. This is where the price of Bitcoin is of great importance for Microstrategy&amp;#x27;s solvency.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So don&amp;#x27;t expect Microstrategy to have pressure to sell significant amounts of Bitcoin before at least 2027, even if the Bitcoin price stays low.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/microstrategy-is-dependent-on-refinancing-capacity-not.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/microstrategy-is-dependent-on-refinancing-capacity-not" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-16 16:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/microstrategy-is-dependent-on-refinancing-capacity-not" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/microstrategy-is-dependent-on-refinancing-capacity-not</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 16 Nov 2025 16:41:58 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>MicroStrategy Can't Repay Its Debt In Equity/Stock</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/microstrategy-cant-repay-its-debt-in-equity-stock</link><description>Most of MicroStrategy's debt is in the form of convertible bonds, meaning that by default the principal and the coupons get repaid the cash.   The "convertible" part means the bondholder can choose…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Most of MicroStrategy&amp;#x27;s debt is in the form of convertible bonds, meaning that by default the principal and the coupons get repaid the cash. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The &amp;quot;convertible&amp;quot; part means the bondholder can choose to convert the bond into shares/equity instead, and then MSTR chooses how settle the conversion of the bond&amp;#x27;s value in cash, equity or mix.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So MSTR cannot force the debt settlement/repayment in stock/equity - that&amp;#x27;s simply an option that the bondholders/investors have. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The repayment can always be in cash assuming that MSTR is solvent, as most of the debt is unsecured, meaning that there is no specific collateral pledged against that debt. In case of insolvency, unsecured debt holders are treated as general creditors of the company, and are repaid out of the remaining assets only after secured debt holders are repaid, but before equity holders.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/microstrategy-cant-repay-its-debt-in-equity-stock.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/microstrategy-cant-repay-its-debt-in-equity-stock" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-16 23:01&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/microstrategy-cant-repay-its-debt-in-equity-stock" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/microstrategy-cant-repay-its-debt-in-equity-stock</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 16 Nov 2025 23:01:12 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Europe's Gold Imports and Exports Explained</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/europes-gold-imports-and-exports-explained</link><description>Europe has gold mines in Finland, Sweden, Türkiye and Romania among others.  Together they account for &lt;2% of world output (≈70 tones of gold/year). Europe is heavily dependent on gold imports, with…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Europe has gold mines in Finland, Sweden, Türkiye and Romania among others.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Together they account for &amp;lt;2% of world output (≈70 tones of gold/year). Europe is heavily dependent on gold imports, with &amp;gt;90% of the gold for its needs being imported.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Switzerland is the world&amp;#x27;s largest gold refining and transit hub, with at least ≈50% of all of the newly minted gold passing through Swiss refineries. Refining and re-exporting is by far the largest driver of European gold imports.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Europe imports ≈3900 tones of gold per year, but only keeps 10% of it.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/europes-gold-imports-and-exports-explained.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/europes-gold-imports-and-exports-explained" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-17 12:44&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/europes-gold-imports-and-exports-explained" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/europes-gold-imports-and-exports-explained</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 17 Nov 2025 12:44:45 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Strategy (MSTR) pays interest on its debt via a mixture of capital markets, software business cashflow, existing reserves &amp; investments and Bitcoin sales.</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/strategy-mstr-pays-interest-on-its-debt-via-a-mixture-of</link><description>MSTR's annual coupon payments are not that high - ≈$40M/year. The convertible bonds that they issue come with small coupons (e.g. 0%, 0.625%, %0.875, 2.25%)  Given MSTR's software business revenue…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;MSTR&amp;#x27;s annual coupon payments are not that high - ≈$40M/year. The convertible bonds that they issue come with small coupons (e.g. 0%, 0.625%, %0.875, 2.25%)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Given MSTR&amp;#x27;s software business revenue of ≈$500M/year, but it actually operates at a ≈$60M loss after expenses are accounted for.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So effectively, strategy pays interest expenses from the same corporate funds bucket that they rase to purchase Bitcoin in capital markets.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/strategy-mstr-pays-interest-on-its-debt-via-a-mixture-of" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-18 14:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/strategy-mstr-pays-interest-on-its-debt-via-a-mixture-of" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/strategy-mstr-pays-interest-on-its-debt-via-a-mixture-of</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 18 Nov 2025 14:54:01 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>How MicroStrategy Pays Interest On Its Debt?</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/how-microstrategy-pays-interest-on-its-debt</link><description>The short answer is that MSTR finances its debt service via a mixture of:  ➖ Software business cashflow ➖ Existing reserves &amp; short-term investments ➖ Capital market instruments, such as issuing new…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;The short answer is that MSTR finances its debt service via a mixture of:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ Software business cashflow&lt;br/&gt;➖ Existing reserves &amp;amp; short-term investments&lt;br/&gt;➖ Capital market instruments, such as issuing new equity or debt&lt;br/&gt;➖ Asset liquidation (Bitcoin sales)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;MSTR&amp;#x27;s annual coupon payments sum up to ≈$34.6M/year. Currently, virtually all of MSTR&amp;#x27;s financial debt is in convertible bonds/senior notes. Those bonds come with small coupons, so relatively small interest payments.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;More specifically, here is how MicroStrategy&amp;#x27;s/Strategy&amp;#x27;s outstanding outstanding convertible bond maturity, principal, coupon rate and total yearly interest  look like:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;2028     | $1.01B   @ 0.625%   | $6.3M&lt;br/&gt;2029     | $3.0B    @ 0%            | $0M&lt;br/&gt;2030A  | $0.8B     @ 0.625%  | $5M&lt;br/&gt;2030B  | $2.0B     @ 0%           | $0M&lt;br/&gt;2031     | $0.604B @ 0.875%  | $5.3M&lt;br/&gt;2032    | $0.8B       @ 2.25%     | $18M&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;(Format: &amp;lt;year&amp;gt; | &amp;lt;principal&amp;gt; @ &amp;lt;coupon&amp;gt; | &amp;lt;anual interest&amp;gt;)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;If you sum up the interest payments you’ll get ≈$34.6M/year in total.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The yearly revenue of MSTR&amp;#x27;s software services business is almost ≈$500M/year. However, their software portion of the business actually operates at ≈60M/year loss, when using U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Strategy advertises their software portion of the business as being in profit, but they &amp;quot;manipulate&amp;quot; those numbers a little. This &amp;quot;manipulation&amp;quot; involves MSTR not counting stock-based compensation as expenses.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So when you hear Strategy advertising profit from their software business - they&amp;#x27;re not using a legally recognized and standardized measure of profit (in the U.S. it&amp;#x27;s GAAP). So they take the GAAP software profit and then add some things back at their discretion (i.e. they don&amp;#x27;t count some expenses), thus turning a negative profit (loss) into a positive one.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This means that while their software business revenue can help them with having liquidity for interest payments - it doesn&amp;#x27;t cover those costs (since they operate at loss, it actually increases the total cost!).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Thus, Strategy finances their interest rate payments with a mixture of:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ Existing reserves &amp;amp; short-term investments&lt;br/&gt;➖ Capital market instruments, such as issuing new equity or debt (main source)&lt;br/&gt;➖ Asset liquidation&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The software revenue provides significant cashflow (compared to interest rate costs), so it can help with having cash readily available to make an interest payment (liquidity), but it doesn&amp;#x27;t effectively cover them, thus requiring financing from other sources.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/how-microstrategy-pays-interest-on-its-debt.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/how-microstrategy-pays-interest-on-its-debt" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-20 08:56&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/how-microstrategy-pays-interest-on-its-debt" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/how-microstrategy-pays-interest-on-its-debt</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 20 Nov 2025 08:56:39 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>In Net Terms, Bitcoin is a Geopolitical Liability, Not an Asset</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/in-net-terms-bitcoin-is-a-geopolitical-liability-not-an</link><description>This is because Bitcoin is vulnerable to attacks targeting its consensus and network availability. A sufficiently resourceful adversary can yield the Bitcoin network inoperable and/or untrustable  A…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;This is because Bitcoin is vulnerable to attacks targeting its consensus and network availability. A sufficiently resourceful adversary can yield the Bitcoin network inoperable and/or untrustable&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;A nation state adversary can take the Bitcoin network down, at least a significant portion of it. And it doesn&amp;#x27;t require them having access to quantum computers or compromising the underlying cryptographic primitives in other manner.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This is why sovereign strategic Bitcoin reserves, including BTC as a Central Bank reserve asset is not a good idea, at least in the current state and design of the Bitcoin protocol.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/in-net-terms-bitcoin-is-a-geopolitical-liability-not-an.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/in-net-terms-bitcoin-is-a-geopolitical-liability-not-an" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-20 16:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/in-net-terms-bitcoin-is-a-geopolitical-liability-not-an" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/in-net-terms-bitcoin-is-a-geopolitical-liability-not-an</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 20 Nov 2025 16:41:33 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Strategy Invents Financial Metrics And Everybody Applauds 👏</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/strategy-invents-financial-metrics-and-everybody-applauds</link><description>MSTR's own website states that their reports do not reflect the financial reality:  "None of BTC Rating, BTC Credit, or BTC Risk are measures of financial results or liquidity, or key performance…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;MSTR&amp;#x27;s own website states that their reports do not reflect the financial reality:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&amp;quot;None of BTC Rating, BTC Credit, or BTC Risk are measures of financial results or liquidity, or key performance indicators.&amp;quot;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Strategy&amp;#x27;s software business also operates at a ≈$60M loss, but on their website and socials they decide to ignore a part of expenses and market it as profit. So they create their own non-standard accounting and credit metrics and advertise those.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Strategy has a consistent pattern of misrepresenting their financials to look more favorable in their public marketing campaigns. A lot of it is in the form of Michael Saylor&amp;#x27;s videos, podcast appearances and posts on X. A lot seem to think that just because someone says something in a video or a social media post it must be true. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Words can be deceiving, numbers not so much.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/strategy-invents-financial-metrics-and-everybody-applauds.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/strategy-invents-financial-metrics-and-everybody-applauds" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-21 14:07&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/strategy-invents-financial-metrics-and-everybody-applauds" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/strategy-invents-financial-metrics-and-everybody-applauds</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 21 Nov 2025 14:07:08 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>1 oz of Gold: Production Cost and Miner Profit</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/1-oz-of-gold-production-cost-and-miner-profit</link><description>1 oz of gold costs ≈$1500 to mine (AISC), ≈10$ to transport and refine and another ≈$400 in various other expenses.  In total, that sums to about ≈$1910 to get 1 ounce of gold from the ground to…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;1 oz of gold costs ≈$1500 to mine (AISC), ≈10$ to transport and refine and another ≈$400 in various other expenses.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;In total, that sums to about ≈$1910 to get 1 ounce of gold from the ground to bullion gold bar.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Currently, gold trades at ≈$4100/oz (when you&amp;#x27;re reading this it&amp;#x27;s probably much higher 😄). This means there is about $4100-$1910=$2190 of margin on each ounce of refined gold. Almost all of this margin on the sale of an ounce of gold is pocketed by gold miners.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Let&amp;#x27;s compute the profit per ounce of gold from the perspective of a miner. Gold miners generally sell gold to refineries at a fixed haircut over the spot price. This haircut is generally very small, ≈$10 which accounts mainly for refining and treatment costs. So with the numbers above (also see attached image), gold miners are making a profit of $4100-$(1500+400+10)=$2190 (the same number we computed above).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The larger the premium/gap of gold&amp;#x27;s spot price over its production costs, the larger is the profit for the miners. As the cost of labor and industrial production increases due to global monetary debasement, so will gold production costs. The same monetary debasement, combined with strong demand for gold will push its price further up. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;In the next 2-3 years, I expect gold price to increase by a larger proportion than gold mining costs, as gold is under several positive price pressure points (central banks, USD alternatives, monetary debasement, etc). Thus, the margin over mining costs should remain high, leading to a sustained high profit per ounce of gold for miners.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This is why gold mining stocks are currently a great investment. The same is true for other miners, such as silver.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/1-oz-of-gold-production-cost-and-miner-profit.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/1-oz-of-gold-production-cost-and-miner-profit" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-23 13:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/1-oz-of-gold-production-cost-and-miner-profit" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/1-oz-of-gold-production-cost-and-miner-profit</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 23 Nov 2025 13:58:39 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>How the 1916 Fed Act Made Treasuries Prime Collateral</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/how-the-1916-fed-act-made-treasuries-prime-collateral</link><description>Before 1916, the Fed would only lend to banks against "eligible paper", which included self-liquidating commercial loans and agricultural loans.  The Federal Reserve Act 1916 amendment expanded the…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Before 1916, the Fed would only lend to banks against &amp;quot;eligible paper&amp;quot;, which included self-liquidating commercial loans and agricultural loans.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The Federal Reserve Act 1916 amendment expanded the Fed&amp;#x27;s legal power to allow for lending to commercial banks against U.S. Treasuries (government bonds).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This effectively turned U.S. government debt into collateral backing Fed&amp;#x27;s liabilities. This paved the way for the U.S. Treasuries to become the most used form of collateral in short-term wholesale debt markets (e.g. repo/repurchase agreements) today.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/how-the-1916-fed-act-made-treasuries-prime-collateral.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/how-the-1916-fed-act-made-treasuries-prime-collateral" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-23 16:11&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/how-the-1916-fed-act-made-treasuries-prime-collateral" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/how-the-1916-fed-act-made-treasuries-prime-collateral</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 23 Nov 2025 16:11:13 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>A Primer On Strategy/MSTR Business, Financials, Liquidity and Solvency</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/a-primer-on-strategy-mstr-business-financials-liquidity-and</link><description>There's a lot of misinformation how Strategy/MicroStrategy operates, its business model and what MSTR can and can't do.  This served as a motivation for me to write 4 short, primer-style articles on…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;There&amp;#x27;s a lot of misinformation how Strategy/MicroStrategy operates, its business model and what MSTR can and can&amp;#x27;t do.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This served as a motivation for me to write 4 short, primer-style articles on MSTR:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ MSTR’s business model, describing how the company operates as a &amp;quot;Bitcoin treasury&amp;quot; and what does it mean for its solvency. You can read it here: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/microstrategy-is-dependent-on-refinancing-capacity-not" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/microstrategy-is-dependent-on-refinancing-capacity-not&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Why MicroStrategy can’t replay its debt using equity/stock. You can read it here: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/microstrategy-cant-repay-its-debt-in-equity-stock" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/microstrategy-cant-repay-its-debt-in-equity-stock&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ How Strategy pays for its interest, which currently accounts to ≈$40M/year. You can read it here:  &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/how-microstrategy-pays-interest-on-its-debt" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/how-microstrategy-pays-interest-on-its-debt&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;  &lt;br/&gt;4️⃣ How Strategy&amp;#x27;s marketing is misleading regarding MSTR’s risk, liquidity and solvency. You can read it here: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/strategy-invents-financial-metrics-and-everybody-applauds" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/strategy-invents-financial-metrics-and-everybody-applauds&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I suggest reading them in the same order as above, but they&amp;#x27;re self-isolated. It&amp;#x27;s a short read, and together they will give you a good understanding on how Strategy operates (its business model), what are its main risks, what MSTR can and cannot do regarding debt repayments, and why you probably shouldn’t trust their marketing campaigns, including the statements made by Michael Saylor on X and various podcasts/videos where he appears.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/a-primer-on-strategy-mstr-business-financials-liquidity-and.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/a-primer-on-strategy-mstr-business-financials-liquidity-and" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-11-24 15:34&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/a-primer-on-strategy-mstr-business-financials-liquidity-and" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/a-primer-on-strategy-mstr-business-financials-liquidity-and</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 24 Nov 2025 15:34:47 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Added Semantic Categorization Via Embeddings To Articles/Threads On My Website</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/added-semantic-categorization-via-embeddings-to-articles</link><description>You can now filter my articles by topic at https://illya.sh/threads/topics/  Qwen3-Embedding-0.6B is used to vectorize and embed all of the articles/threads, which are then tagged/categorized based…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;You can now filter my articles by topic at &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/topics/" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/topics/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Qwen3-Embedding-0.6B is used to vectorize and embed all of the articles/threads, which are then tagged/categorized based on natural language tags for the category.&lt;br/&gt;This allows me to define a new category by defining a new Python class with the topic/category name, description, URL path, and the query sting to embed and query against the thread embeddings. From there, all of the content is generated statically. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Everything runs 100% locally/offline. Model weights are pre-downloaded once - that&amp;#x27;s the most time-consuming part. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The motivation for implementing this has to with the content&amp;#x27;s volume. I have written over 180 articles/threads, but until now there was no categorization. So if you wanted to read an article on a particular topic, you&amp;#x27;d either have to google it, ask an LLM or go through the list manually yourself. Now, there is an index with topics, which help navigating the content semantically.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Navigate to &lt;a href="https://t.co/bXb1JWKD4d," target="_blank"&gt;https://t.co/bXb1JWKD4d,&lt;/a&gt; select a topic, and you will be presented paginated list of all threads/articles matching that topic.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/added-semantic-categorization-via-embeddings-to-articles.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/added-semantic-categorization-via-embeddings-to-articles" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-12-05 09:00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/added-semantic-categorization-via-embeddings-to-articles" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/added-semantic-categorization-via-embeddings-to-articles</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 05 Dec 2025 09:00:03 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Laptop as a Meshtastic LoRa Node Using ESP32, BLE and Python</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/laptop-as-a-meshtastic-lora-node-using-esp32-ble-and-python</link><description>Meshtastic exposes a BLE interface and comes with a nice Python library. So I connected to the ESP32 with a LoRA module over bluetooth, and was able to send and receive messages from a Python script…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Meshtastic exposes a BLE interface and comes with a nice Python library. So I connected to the ESP32 with a LoRA module over bluetooth, and was able to send and receive messages from a Python script running on a laptop.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Essentially, the laptop uses the microcontroller as a proxy for the sub-GHz antenna (EU_868/≈868 MHz in Europe), enabling it to send and receive LoRa messages via Meshtastic&amp;#x27;s firmware. So effectively Bluetooth Low Energy is used as a proxy protocol for LoRa.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;There were two nodes in the mesh - one connected to the laptop and another to a smartphone. Both nodes had the same channel name, Pre-Shared Key (PSK) and ordering (channel id) setup. The laptop node was using Python to connect to the mesh via BLE and exchange messages. The smartphone was connected to the other node, and the official Meshtastic app was used to send and receive messages.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The setup is as follows:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;💻 Laptop (Python)&lt;br/&gt;   ⇅ BLE&lt;br/&gt;📡 Node A (ESP32 + LoRa)&lt;br/&gt;   ≈≈≈ 868 MHz LoRa mesh ≈≈≈&lt;br/&gt;📡 Node B (ESP32 + LoRa)&lt;br/&gt;   ⇅ BLE&lt;br/&gt;📱 Phone (Meshtastic app)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So you don&amp;#x27;t really need to program the ESP32 to make it a &amp;quot;smart&amp;quot; LoRa node. You can program all of the logic on your usual dev machine, and use BLE as a proxy for LoRa packets over Meshtastic. This is a great approach for iterative development, prototyping, proof of concepts and even final products. Of course, you can also put the smart node code on a Raspberry Pi, Arduino or even the microcontroller itself.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/laptop-as-a-meshtastic-lora-node-using-esp32-ble-and-python.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/laptop-as-a-meshtastic-lora-node-using-esp32-ble-and-python" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-12-06 15:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/laptop-as-a-meshtastic-lora-node-using-esp32-ble-and-python" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/laptop-as-a-meshtastic-lora-node-using-esp32-ble-and-python</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 06 Dec 2025 15:51:27 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>China Is Hoarding Commodities</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/china-is-hoarding-commodities</link><description>While the U.S. is pumping a crypto &amp; AI bubble, China is pumping their commodity reserves.  Not only PRC is limiting silver exports, but they're also lowering the cost of commodity-related imports.…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;While the U.S. is pumping a crypto &amp;amp; AI bubble, China is pumping their commodity reserves.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Not only PRC is limiting silver exports, but they&amp;#x27;re also lowering the cost of commodity-related imports.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The net result will be more positive  commodity import/export ratio, i.e. more physical commodities within China, which will be used for strategic and industrial needs (China is the world&amp;#x27;s number one producer).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;It also means that there will be less commodities available outside of PRC, and since the global demand won&amp;#x27;t decrease - that&amp;#x27;s further positive price pressure on the commodity sector.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I have been writing about gold, silver and other commodities for over 2 years. The same bullish narrative remains valid. These geopolitical developments provide further confirmation.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/china-is-hoarding-commodities.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/china-is-hoarding-commodities" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-12-29 16:05&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/china-is-hoarding-commodities" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/china-is-hoarding-commodities</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 29 Dec 2025 16:05:03 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>M2 Money Supply Is A Bad Measure of Global Liquidity</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/m2-money-supply-is-a-bad-measure-of-global-liquidity</link><description>If you're using M2/M3 as a measure of global liquidity, you're under accounting for at least half of "global money supply".  Here's some USD-centric data:  ➖ U.S. M2 supply: ≈$23T ➖ U.S. Money…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;If you&amp;#x27;re using M2/M3 as a measure of global liquidity, you&amp;#x27;re under accounting for at least half of &amp;quot;global money supply&amp;quot;.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Here&amp;#x27;s some USD-centric data:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ U.S. M2 supply: ≈$23T&lt;br/&gt;➖ U.S. Money Market Funds: ≈$8T&lt;br/&gt;➖ U.S. Repo Markets: ≈$13T&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;These are USD/U.S. focused figures, so they don&amp;#x27;t account for global liquidity per se (e.g. PBoC&amp;#x27;s balance sheet is larger than Fed&amp;#x27;s), but they do show how M2 falls short of being an accurate proxy for the measure of global monetary/currency supply.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I&amp;#x27;ve written several articles on global liquidity and how to measure it. You can read them free of cost in the threads section of my website.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/m2-money-supply-is-a-bad-measure-of-global-liquidity.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/m2-money-supply-is-a-bad-measure-of-global-liquidity" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-12-29 22:50&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/m2-money-supply-is-a-bad-measure-of-global-liquidity" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/m2-money-supply-is-a-bad-measure-of-global-liquidity</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 29 Dec 2025 22:50:26 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Uranium, nuclear energy, electrical grid, lithium and copper have been added to my list</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/uranium-nuclear-energy-electrical-grid-lithium-and-copper</link><description>Electrification will continue to increase, and that requires not only the production of electricity, but also the setup of all of the electrical infrastructure. AI runs on electricity, data centers…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Electrification will continue to increase, and that requires not only the production of electricity, but also the setup of all of the electrical infrastructure. AI runs on electricity, data centers need electricity and strong demand for electric lithium-battery powered vehicles (EVs) is here to stay for at least another decade. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;You can invest in them using your favorite broker - there&amp;#x27;s plenty of ETFs, ETCs and equities.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;For Uranium and nuclear energy - there are several ETFs that give you exposure to producers, distributors and infrastructure (e.g. nuclear plant maintenance).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Electrical grid investments can be done by acquiring equity in companies that expand and maintain it.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Not recommending any particular investment instruments, but the attached image provides you with a starter list.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/uranium-nuclear-energy-electrical-grid-lithium-and-copper.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/uranium-nuclear-energy-electrical-grid-lithium-and-copper" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-12-31 15:13&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/uranium-nuclear-energy-electrical-grid-lithium-and-copper" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/uranium-nuclear-energy-electrical-grid-lithium-and-copper</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 31 Dec 2025 15:13:43 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Gold hasn't even touched its daily level uptrend support and finance accounts on X are already calling for a top</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/gold-hasnt-even-touched-its-daily-level-uptrend-support-and</link><description>I have been writing my price thesis on gold for 2 years now, and since my call in December 2023 gold's price is up ≈125%. In the last day or 2025 my call is that this uptrend will continue.…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;I have been writing my price thesis on gold for 2 years now, and since my call in December 2023 gold&amp;#x27;s price is up ≈125%. In the last day or 2025 my call is that this uptrend will continue.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Regarding local tops, it&amp;#x27;s worth noting that gold has been in one for over 2 months now.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Additionally, closes below a seemingly arbitrary 4H support line drawn on a chart does not imply any significant top or trend reversal. Gold can go down to $3900 and still be in an uptrend!&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;TA &amp;amp; charting is supportive, as it gives you hints about what the market is doing, but on its own it can&amp;#x27;t provide you with a high-confidence prediction of the future. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;If you lack the foundation on the basis of the price action of an asset, you&amp;#x27;ll find it much more challenging to distinguish a dip from a longer-term trend reversal. I&amp;#x27;ve written several articles explaining why gold&amp;#x27;s price will keep going up, in terms of currency debasement, refinancing cycles, global liquidity and geopolitical pressures. You can access those threads/articles on my website free or cost. They&amp;#x27;ll provide you with a solid basis for understanding gold, where its price headed and why.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-hasnt-even-touched-its-daily-level-uptrend-support-and.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-hasnt-even-touched-its-daily-level-uptrend-support-and" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-12-31 18:26&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/gold-hasnt-even-touched-its-daily-level-uptrend-support-and" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/gold-hasnt-even-touched-its-daily-level-uptrend-support-and</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 31 Dec 2025 18:26:29 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Bulgarian Lev has been pegged to Euro since 1999</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/bulgarian-lev-has-been-pegged-to-euro-since-1999</link><description>Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) has been operating under a currency board arrangement (CBA) regime since 1997. First, it was pegged to the Deutsche Mark, then to the Euro. They also redenominated…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) has been operating under a currency board arrangement (CBA) regime since 1997. First, it was pegged to the Deutsche Mark, then to the Euro. They also redenominated their currency from Old Bulgarian Lev (BGL) to New Bulgarian Lev (BGN).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Under CBA, BNB&amp;#x27;s monetary liabilities must be fully covered by foreign reserves. In other words, if Bulgaria&amp;#x27;s Central Bank wanted to increase the base money supply of their national currency (i.e. monetary liabilities on BNB&amp;#x27;s balance sheet), they needed to foreign reserve assets backing them up at a fixed rate of 1 EUR ≈ 1.96 BGN. In practice, ≈90% of BNB&amp;#x27;s reserves were Euro-denominated, which makes sense, since BGN is pegged to the Euro.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;For those claiming that by adopting the Euro as its official currency on January 1st 2026 Bulgaria has given up its monetary sovereignty - how exactly? BNB has been extremely limited in pursuing discretionary monetary policies since 1997.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/bulgarian-lev-has-been-pegged-to-euro-since-1999.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/bulgarian-lev-has-been-pegged-to-euro-since-1999" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-01 20:37&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/bulgarian-lev-has-been-pegged-to-euro-since-1999" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/bulgarian-lev-has-been-pegged-to-euro-since-1999</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2026 20:37:36 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>LLMs &amp; AI Agents Didn't Replace Programming - They Evolved It</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/llms-ai-agents-didnt-replace-programming-they-evolved-it</link><description>I've been programming with LLMs since 2022, implementing systems of varied complexity, both professionally and exploratory/hobby projects. And I will continue to do so in 2026. However, it's…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;I&amp;#x27;ve been programming with LLMs since 2022, implementing systems of varied complexity, both professionally and exploratory/hobby projects. And I will continue to do so in 2026. However, it&amp;#x27;s important to be aware of its limits.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Vibe/agent coding for critical systems doesn&amp;#x27;t work well (yet).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;You&amp;#x27;ll also be disappointed if you&amp;#x27;re trying to do something with financial markets (e.g. Machine-Learning based models).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Vibe coded apps also frequently come with security vulnerabilities (for many apps this may be an acceptable compromise).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I don&amp;#x27;t think you&amp;#x27;d be comfortable with driving a vehicle with all of its software vibe-coded, or with all code written by an agentic system, without thorough human investment.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;LLMs are good at solving problems that have been solved many time before, but this abstraction quickly breaks apart if you delve with them into less developed topics, which frequent tend to be more complex. Pattern matching based prediction is very powerful, but you need enough patterns to learn from, alongside the correct context.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Additionally, vibe-coding a large codebase is one thing, while maintaining that same codebase is another.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Autopilot in commercial airplanes didn&amp;#x27;t deprecate carbon-based human pilots, but it did deprecate pilots who didn&amp;#x27;t commit to learning and integrating autopilot during the flight.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So is programming really dead, or has it merely evolved? 🤔&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/llms-ai-agents-didnt-replace-programming-they-evolved-it" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-02 15:09&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/llms-ai-agents-didnt-replace-programming-they-evolved-it" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/llms-ai-agents-didnt-replace-programming-they-evolved-it</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 02 Jan 2026 15:09:45 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>The big play on precious metals mining stocks is that production costs remain (much) smaller than the metal's spot price</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/the-big-play-on-precious-metals-mining-stocks-is-that</link><description>For gold - the cost to produce/mine 1 oz is roughly $2000. Then, those same miners sell it for more than $4000. Instant &gt;$2000 profit per ounce (again, rough numbers) 😄  So from the current levels,…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;For gold - the cost to produce/mine 1 oz is roughly $2000. Then, those same miners sell it for more than $4000. Instant &amp;gt;$2000 profit per ounce (again, rough numbers) 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So from the current levels, assuming production costs increase less than the spot price of the metal - miners win big. I believe this will be the case.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I wrote a more detailed article explains gold mining costs and miner profits here: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/1-oz-of-gold-production-cost-and-miner-profit" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/1-oz-of-gold-production-cost-and-miner-profit&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-big-play-on-precious-metals-mining-stocks-is-that.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-big-play-on-precious-metals-mining-stocks-is-that" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-02 18:37&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/the-big-play-on-precious-metals-mining-stocks-is-that" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/the-big-play-on-precious-metals-mining-stocks-is-that</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 02 Jan 2026 18:37:35 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Ruble was the best performing major currency of 2025, and it's easy to understand why</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/ruble-was-the-best-performing-major-currency-of-2025-and-its</link><description>What Russia did is replace USD-denominated securities (treasuries, bonds, etc) with gold.  Gold is almost 40% of Russia's Central bank balance sheet, compare it to ≈20% for European Union, ≈16% for…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;What Russia did is replace USD-denominated securities (treasuries, bonds, etc) with gold.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Gold is almost 40% of Russia&amp;#x27;s Central bank balance sheet, compare it to ≈20% for European Union, ≈16% for U.S. and ≈5% for China. This leaves Russia&amp;#x27;s central bank with a massive balance sheet capacity for the future and supports the Ruble price.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;There&amp;#x27;s also the National Wealth Fund, which commits to buying gold when Urals oil is sold/traded above a certain price.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/ruble-was-the-best-performing-major-currency-of-2025-and-its.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ruble-was-the-best-performing-major-currency-of-2025-and-its" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-03 08:27&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/ruble-was-the-best-performing-major-currency-of-2025-and-its" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/ruble-was-the-best-performing-major-currency-of-2025-and-its</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 03 Jan 2026 08:27:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Misinformation About Venezuela's Gold Reserves Is Spreading 🇻🇪</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/misinformation-about-venezuelas-gold-reserves-is-spreading</link><description>It appears that once a large finance account on X posts misinformation about Venezuela's gold reserves, many other large-following X accounts repost it without even bothering to verify the…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;It appears that once a large finance account on X posts misinformation about Venezuela&amp;#x27;s gold reserves, many other large-following X accounts repost it without even bothering to verify the information.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV) doesn&amp;#x27;t have anywhere close to 161 tonnes of gold - those are numbers from 2017. BCV&amp;#x27;s balance sheet report, alongside the auxiliary notes released with it (specifically Note 7) from June 30th 2025 point at ≈53 tonnes of gold, which is less than a third of the claimed 161 tonnes of gold figure. I know this for a fact, because I checked that balance sheet statement myself.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;On my feed, the incorrect 161 tonnes figure  started with @KobeissiLetter  post earlier today, from there, it continues to spread throughout numerous accounts, many of which have followings in the millions.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;My goal is not to criticize or attack the accounts spreading this incorrect information, but to incentivize checking the information yourself before reposting/spreading it.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;In a follow-up post I&amp;#x27;ll do a more detailed breakdown of BCV&amp;#x27;s balance sheet, especially in terms of gold, so stay tuned.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/misinformation-about-venezuelas-gold-reserves-is-spreading.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/misinformation-about-venezuelas-gold-reserves-is-spreading" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-04 15:47&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/misinformation-about-venezuelas-gold-reserves-is-spreading" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/misinformation-about-venezuelas-gold-reserves-is-spreading</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 04 Jan 2026 15:47:43 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>It's NOT about paying the debt, but BEING ABLE to pay the debt</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/its-not-about-paying-the-debt-but-being-able-to-pay-the-debt</link><description>This is true for corporations, individuals and governments:  ➖ For corporations, debt provides a tax shield (interest payments is an accounting expense)  ➖ For individuals, it allows to front-run…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;This is true for corporations, individuals and governments:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ For corporations, debt provides a tax shield (interest payments is an accounting expense)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ For individuals, it allows to front-run price increase in a monetary debasement/inflationary economy&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖For governments, it allows for more flexibility in pursuing their macroeconomic, social, geopolitical and monetary policy goals.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Why do you think central banks have gold and foreign currencies in their balance sheet backing up their local currency? It&amp;#x27;s about having enough assets and liquidity to cover your liabilities.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/its-not-about-paying-the-debt-but-being-able-to-pay-the-debt" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-04 16:11&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/its-not-about-paying-the-debt-but-being-able-to-pay-the-debt" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/its-not-about-paying-the-debt-but-being-able-to-pay-the-debt</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 04 Jan 2026 16:11:18 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>The U.S. Violated International Law By Attacking Venezuela and Capturing Maduro</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/the-u-s-violated-international-law-by-attacking-venezuela</link><description>Both the U.S. and Venezuela are signees &amp; parties of the UN Charter, making it a legally binding treaty for both countries. This means that both of the countries are forbidden from using force…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Both the U.S. and Venezuela are signees &amp;amp; parties of the UN Charter, making it a legally binding treaty for both countries. This means that both of the countries are forbidden from using force against sovereign states, as per Article 2(4), which states:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ &amp;quot;All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.&amp;quot;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Crossing the border with military force to seize someone is clearly a &amp;quot;use of force&amp;quot; against that state, meaning it&amp;#x27;s a violation of the provision.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;There are some exceptions to Article 2(4), such as self-defense in responding to an armed attack (Article 51), prior authorization for force by the UN Security Council and . United State&amp;#x27;s actions do not fall under those exceptions. As such, USA is in violation of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, making their actions illegal under the international law. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Even if the U.S. that they are not in violation of their national laws, they would still be violating the international law. Vienna Convention on The Law of Treaties (VCLT) is the &amp;quot;treaty about treaties&amp;quot;, by outlining base rules for how treaties are made, interpreted, applied and ended. Article 27 of VCLT states:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ &amp;quot;A party may not invoke the provisions of its internal law as justification for its failure to perform a treaty.&amp;quot;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Regarding VCLT, the U.S. signed it in April 1970, but they didn&amp;#x27;t ratify it/they&amp;#x27;re not a party in it, meaning it&amp;#x27;s not a directly legally binding treaty for the U.S. However, U.S. courts often treat VCLT as an authoritative guide to customary international law of treaties.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Additionally, Article 103 of the UN Charter puts the obligations outlined in the UN Charter above any other treaty obligations, meaning that Article 2(4) must be respected:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖&amp;quot;In the event of a conflict between the obligations of the Members of the United Nations under the present Charter and their obligations under any other international agreement, their obligations under the present Charter shall prevail.&amp;quot;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;If the U.S. takes military action against Cuba, Cambodia, Denmark (Greenland) or any other sovereign in a similar manner, it would equally be a violation of the international law.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Interestingly enough, in 1945 the U.S. helped to draft the same UN Charter that it is now violating.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-u-s-violated-international-law-by-attacking-venezuela.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-u-s-violated-international-law-by-attacking-venezuela" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-05 13:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/the-u-s-violated-international-law-by-attacking-venezuela" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/the-u-s-violated-international-law-by-attacking-venezuela</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 05 Jan 2026 13:54:18 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Bulgraria has been pegged to Euro since 1999 🇧🇬</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/bulgraria-has-been-pegged-to-euro-since-1999</link><description>Bulgaria has adopted Euro as its official currency and legal tender on January 1st 2026.  As you may have expected, there is now a lot of discourse about how this is bad for Bulgaria, because Euro…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Bulgaria has adopted Euro as its official currency and legal tender on January 1st 2026.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;As you may have expected, there is now a lot of discourse about how this is bad for Bulgaria, because Euro is bad and Bulgaria has now given up their &amp;quot;monetary sovereignty&amp;quot;.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;What the ones pushing that narrative have not expected is for the Bulgarian lev (BGN) to be a proxy for Euro for almost 3 decades now. So it&amp;#x27;s not very clear which sovereignty Bulgaria gave up on January 1st 2026, when it became a full Eurozone member.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Since 1997 Bulgaria has operated under a currency board arrangement (CBA), which is an exchange rate regime where a country commits to keep its local currency to a fixed exchange rate against an anchor currency.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Under CBA, the adhering country fixes the exchange rate of its local currency to an anchor currency, its national central bank fully backs its monetary liabilities with foreign reserves (to create local currency the national central bank must have foreign currency assets to back it up, thus ensuring stable convertibility), and the country foregoes its right to adapt discretionary monetary policy (e.g. inflation rate targeting).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;On July 1st 1997, Bulgaria introduced the currency board, pegging lev (BGL) to the Deutsche Mark (DM). On January 1st 1999, Bulgaria switched the anchor currency from Deutsche Mark to Euro, with the exchange rate fixed at €1 = 1.95583 BGN (≈0.5 BGN/EUR).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) neither had the sovereignty to manage the broad and base supplies of its local currency (Bulgarian lev/BGL/BGN), nor to freely pursue monetary policies since July 1st 1997.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Given this, any discourse about how Bulgaria&amp;#x27;s entry into the Eurozone implies a dramatic change to its monetary sovereignty is likely unfounded. It didn&amp;#x27;t happen overnight - it&amp;#x27;s been an almost 30 year long process. Joining the Eurozone does, however, remove the pegging frictions for Bulgaria, and allows them to fully integrate into the monetary union.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/bulgraria-has-been-pegged-to-euro-since-1999.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/bulgraria-has-been-pegged-to-euro-since-1999" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-06 13:03&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/bulgraria-has-been-pegged-to-euro-since-1999" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/bulgraria-has-been-pegged-to-euro-since-1999</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 06 Jan 2026 13:03:18 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Venezuela's Central Bank Monetary Gold Holdings Constitute ≈20% of Their Balance Sheet</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/venezuelas-central-bank-monetary-gold-holdings-constitute-20</link><description>Gold is also ≈47% of Venezuela's international reserve assets.  This comes directly from Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV), which reports a total of ≈53 tonnes of gold worth ≈0.6 Trillion VES…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Gold is also ≈47% of Venezuela&amp;#x27;s international reserve assets.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This comes directly from Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV), which reports a total of ≈53 tonnes of gold worth ≈0.6 Trillion VES (Venezuelan Bolívar, also known as Bs), or ≈5.58 billion USD.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;In 2021, Reuters reported that ≈31 tonnes of Venezuela&amp;#x27;s Centeal Bank gold was stored in the UK, under the custody of Bank of England (BoE). A quick search didn&amp;#x27;t yield precise figures for 2026, as it appears that that information is not reported publicly in detail. The access to that gold at BoE is currently blocked, over a legal dispute regarding who has the authority/control over that gold - Maduro-appointed BCV board or Guaidó-appointed board. Thus, a significant portion of Venezuela&amp;#x27;s gold is abroad and frozen, which matters in terms of geopolitical risk.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;BNV&amp;#x27;s 20% are relatively high gold amounts against the central bank&amp;#x27;s total balance sheet size, surpassing U.S.&amp;#x27;s Fed (≈16%), China&amp;#x27;s PBoC (≈5%) and just above European Union&amp;#x27;s ECB + Eurosystem (≈19.1%), but well behind Russia&amp;#x27;s BoR (≈36%).&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/venezuelas-central-bank-monetary-gold-holdings-constitute-20.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/venezuelas-central-bank-monetary-gold-holdings-constitute-20" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-08 12:13&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/venezuelas-central-bank-monetary-gold-holdings-constitute-20" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/venezuelas-central-bank-monetary-gold-holdings-constitute-20</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 08 Jan 2026 12:13:42 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Silver didn't even break its 4 hour trend support on the pullback and many are already calling that it has topped for the cycle 😂</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/silver-didnt-even-break-its-4-hour-trend-support-on-the</link><description>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/silver-didnt-even-break-its-4-hour-trend-support-on-the.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/silver-didnt-even-break-its-4-hour-trend-support-on-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-12-30 01:40&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;So silver didn&amp;#x27;t top for the cycle, 2011 didn&amp;#x27;t repeat and instead less than 2 weeks later it hit another all time high&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Imagine my surprise 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;More all time highs are coming and, as I&amp;#x27;ve written before, you can safely ignore any calls for long-term top.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;You can&amp;#x27;t find a top on chart without understanding what drives the price on that chart in the first place. Luckily for you - I&amp;#x27;ve written a lot of explanations on that when it comes to gold and silver&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/so-silver-didnt-top-for-the-cycle-2011-didnt-repeat-and.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/so-silver-didnt-top-for-the-cycle-2011-didnt-repeat-and" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-12 17:45&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/silver-didnt-even-break-its-4-hour-trend-support-on-the" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/silver-didnt-even-break-its-4-hour-trend-support-on-the</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 12 Jan 2026 17:45:13 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>If you want to invest in copper miners, just go with the Global X Copper Miners ETF</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/if-you-want-to-invest-in-copper-miners-just-go-with-the</link><description>This is especially true if your main goal is getting exposure to the price action in the copper mining segment without spending too much time on it.  Not saying that you shouldn't invest in…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;This is especially true if your main goal is getting exposure to the price action in the copper mining segment without spending too much time on it.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Not saying that you shouldn&amp;#x27;t invest in individual equities, but don&amp;#x27;t invest in a company just because someone mentioned their ticker on the internet.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Diversifying makes all of the sense in these cases in terms of risk/reward.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This exchange-traded fund is domiciled in the U.S., but also available to retail EU investors via an equivalent UCITS product, so you should be able to find it listed by your preferred broker.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Fund information:&lt;br/&gt;➖ Ticker: COPX&lt;br/&gt;➖ U.S. ISIN: US37954Y8306&lt;br/&gt;➖ EU ISIN: IE0003Z9E2Y3&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/if-you-want-to-invest-in-copper-miners-just-go-with-the.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/if-you-want-to-invest-in-copper-miners-just-go-with-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-13 12:02&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/if-you-want-to-invest-in-copper-miners-just-go-with-the" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/if-you-want-to-invest-in-copper-miners-just-go-with-the</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 13 Jan 2026 12:02:26 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Putin Instructed Central Bank of Russia To Buy Gold In 2005</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/putin-instructed-central-bank-of-russia-to-buy-gold-in-2005</link><description>In 20 years, Russia's share of gold in their central bank's international reserves account increased by a factor of ≈12.1 times.  At the start of 2026, gold represents ≈43% of Bank of Russia's (BoR)…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;In 20 years, Russia&amp;#x27;s share of gold in their central bank&amp;#x27;s international reserves account increased by a factor of ≈12.1 times.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;At the start of 2026, gold represents ≈43% of Bank of Russia&amp;#x27;s (BoR) international reserves. Back in 2005, gold accounted for a mere ≈3.5% of the same reserves account.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The move to gold was mainly motivated by the desire to diversify away from the U.S. Dollar and the explicit goal of increasing BoR&amp;#x27;s holdings of gold relative to foreign exchange assets. On November 22nd 2005 Putin stated:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ &amp;quot;I believe it&amp;#x27;s necessary for the Central Bank to pay more attention to precious metals within the territory of the Russian Federation when forming gold and foreign-currency reserves. Those reserves are even called &amp;#x27;gold and foreign-currency&amp;#x27; reserves. There&amp;#x27;s nothing to be shy about here.&amp;quot;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Since Vladimir Putin instructed Bank of Russia to start buying more gold, gold is up ≈840%, i.e. almost 10 times. In the same period, S&amp;amp;P 500 TR increased ≈726%, or almost 9 times. This means that Putin&amp;#x27;s strategy outperformed the U.S. stock market index by ≈14%. Perhaps the president of Russia should start his own investment fund?&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/putin-instructed-central-bank-of-russia-to-buy-gold-in-2005.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/putin-instructed-central-bank-of-russia-to-buy-gold-in-2005" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-14 12:15&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/putin-instructed-central-bank-of-russia-to-buy-gold-in-2005" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/putin-instructed-central-bank-of-russia-to-buy-gold-in-2005</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 14 Jan 2026 12:15:04 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Gold miners are about to breakout</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/gold-miners-are-about-to-breakout</link><description>It looks like gold miners are about to appreciate relative to gold, as you can see on the multi-year ascending triangle on the chart. Given that I don't expect gold to have any significant…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;It looks like gold miners are about to appreciate relative to gold, as you can see on the multi-year ascending triangle on the chart. Given that I don&amp;#x27;t expect gold to have any significant medium-to-longterm pullbacks, this means that gold mining stocks are setup to appreciate more than gold.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The next significant medium to long-term resistance zone is ≈60% higher, meaning that miners have room to appreciate significantly more relative to the price of gold.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The chart is on a monthly level and it shows the ratio between the price of gold miners index and gold futures.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-miners-are-about-to-breakout.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-miners-are-about-to-breakout" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-15 14:54&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/gold-miners-are-about-to-breakout" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/gold-miners-are-about-to-breakout</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 15 Jan 2026 14:54:02 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Silver Mining Stocks Are Undervalued In 2026</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/silver-mining-stocks-are-undervalued-in-2026</link><description>*Below is my 5-minute analysis on silver miners equity prices for 2026  The price ratio of silver miners to silver is at some of its lowest levels in history, roughly at the same values as it was in…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;*Below is my 5-minute analysis on silver miners equity prices for 2026&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The price ratio of silver miners to silver is at some of its lowest levels in history, roughly at the same values as it was in the 2000’s. The ratio is currently sitting on a support from 2014-2015 inside of a multi-year upward price channel. Alongside the macroeconomic and geopolitical fundamentals, this setup’s potential upside gain justifies the limited downside risk. Unless silver experiences a large medium-to-longterm pullback, silver mining equity prices are set to increase against the price of silver. For this to happen, there are 3 high-level scenarios:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ Silver price remains above ≈$88: silver miners appreciate more than silver&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Silver price remains above ≈$83: silver falls in price, miners fall less or increase&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ Silver price remains above ≈$70: silver falls in price, miners fall less (more likely) or increase&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Given the increasing demand for physical silver combined with currency debasement driven by refinancing needs, I don’t believe silver’s spot price will experience a pullback to lower than the ≈$70 level in 2026. Pullbacks below ≈$70 are more likely to trigger a larger sell-off in silver miners, potentially even pushing the ratio further down, meaning that silver mining stocks fall in price more than silver.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Silver producers/miners, royalty and streamers can be a great source of diversification and even &amp;quot;hedging&amp;quot; of your silver investments without ever leaving the commodities sector. You can further diversify your exposure to other metals by acquiring fund units and/or equities in producers, royalty and streamers that focus on more than two metals (e.g. there are companies mining gold, silver and copper).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;A few days ago, I wrote a post about how gold miner prices are set to breakout. But silver is not gold. Silver miners will be more volatile than gold miners, but given a positive correlation between gold and silver prices, they will tend to follow the gold miner’s direction. After all, most gold mining companies mine silver and vice-versa (silver is often mined as a byproduct of other metals like gold, copper, lead and zinc). The attached chart shows the ratio between the price of Hecla Mining and Pan American Silver, so it doesn’t include all silver miners, but you’ll find a similar structure in silver equity-based indices against the spot/futures price of the metal.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;In the longer timespan (e.g. 3+ years), miners may underperform the underlying metal. This analysis is written with a focus on the current price levels with a timeframe of 1 year from now. Given that this article was written in January 2026, you can consider this as a guide for the remainder of 2026. Physical silver is not the same as silver miners. The mining sector is exposed to an array of risks distinct from the metal, with the highest one currently being the geopolitical risk in the form of armed conflict (destruction, supply chain disruption) and legal changes (sanctions, tariffs, export/import limits). Thus, even if the price of the physical metal goes up, miners price can collapse. The same risks can put upwards pressure on the metal and downward pressure on the miners simultaneously. I don&amp;#x27;t believe these risks will materialize sufficiently for miners by the end of 2026, and given the upside price pressure on commodities, miners will also ride that price wave up.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/silver-mining-stocks-are-undervalued-in-2026.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/silver-mining-stocks-are-undervalued-in-2026" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-18 14:41&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/silver-mining-stocks-are-undervalued-in-2026" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/silver-mining-stocks-are-undervalued-in-2026</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 18 Jan 2026 14:41:36 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Even As Central Banks Bought Gold, The Market Analysts Remained Bearish</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/even-as-central-banks-bought-gold-the-market-analysts</link><description>* This goes to the list of "things that are obvious in hindsight"  In 2014 Forbes published an opinion saying that increased gold buying by Central Bank of Russia (CBR) isn't an indicator of…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;* This goes to the list of &amp;quot;things that are obvious in hindsight&amp;quot;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;In 2014 Forbes published an opinion saying that increased gold buying by Central Bank of Russia (CBR) isn&amp;#x27;t an indicator of positive price pressures for gold.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Gold&amp;#x27;s price has more than quadrupled since then, going from ≈$1600/oz in November 2014 to ≈$4600/oz as of January 19th 2026.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The article frames the purchase as &amp;quot;forced&amp;quot;, when commenting the fact that CBR decided to increase the share of gold in the &amp;quot;gold and foreign exchange reserve assets&amp;quot; item in their balance sheet. It is not by chance that this central bank accounting item explicitly includes &amp;quot;gold&amp;quot; in its name.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The Forbes article also seems to assume that miner profit margins don&amp;#x27;t spread cross-border.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Another thing that the article omits is that a central bank can buy gold without expanding the base monetary base (i.e. &amp;quot;printing&amp;quot; new currency), for example by swapping FX reserves for gold via a single or multi-leg sale.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/even-as-central-banks-bought-gold-the-market-analysts.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/even-as-central-banks-bought-gold-the-market-analysts" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-19 15:38&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/even-as-central-banks-bought-gold-the-market-analysts" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/even-as-central-banks-bought-gold-the-market-analysts</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 19 Jan 2026 15:38:09 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Good For Gold, Bad For USD: US Tariffs on Europe</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/good-for-gold-bad-for-usd-us-tariffs-on-europe</link><description>The tariffs imposed by the U.S. on the European countries are detrimental to USD's position as a reserve currency. A capital outflow out of the U.S. dollar creates positive price pressure on gold…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;The tariffs imposed by the U.S. on the European countries are detrimental to USD&amp;#x27;s position as a reserve currency. A capital outflow out of the U.S. dollar creates positive price pressure on gold via increased demand. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This is true regardless of the U.S. Supreme Court&amp;#x27;s decision on whether President Trump can lawfully impose unilateral broad tariffs via executive order using the the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEAP). &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;At the high level, there&amp;#x27;s two moves for gold here:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ If the tariffs are deemed illegal and the collected tariff revenue must to refunded - which would lead to an increase of USD supply accessible to the wider economy. The refund would come either from existing reserves, thus directly increasing broad money or from newly issued debt, which may reduce broad money in the short-term, but the newly issued bonds will eventually be rehypothecated, thus effectively increasing USD credit/effective supply. This is positive price pressure on gold, at the very least due to the increase in liquidity. This is negative price pressure on USD, due to increased supply &amp;amp; public debt of the issuer.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖If the tariffs are deemed legal, and/or do not need to be refunded, the geopolitical and liquidity risk remains, which materializes in a lower incencitve to own USD. After all, why would you want to hold a currency, whose purchasing power/liqudity may be reduced every other week after the markets close on a Friday? Gold is the natural outflow path from USD, especially at sovereign/central bank level.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;If the Eurozone wants to reduce their USD exposure in the next 5 years, what can they do? The European countries may not want to start significantly increasing the share of renminbi in their FX reserves just yet. Additionally, EU could position Euro as an alternative to USD for settlements, as EUR is already the second most used currency for international trade &amp;amp; FX turnover, second only to USD. Gold presents itself as an attractive alternative to USD, even if the focus on increasing its tonnage in the reserves is transitory. At the very least, increasing the share of gold relative to the balance sheet size in the Eurozone, would increase foreign exchange rate value of Euro and/or would provide basis for monetary expansion in the future.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Many forget that the &amp;quot;gold and foreign exchange reserves&amp;quot; are a single asset-side item in central banks balance sheets. &amp;quot;Gold&amp;quot; is explicitly discriminated among all other assets/commodities, while all currencies and their derivatives (e.g. sovereign bonds) are clustered under the generic &amp;quot;FX reserves&amp;quot; name. Across all currencies, renminbi is best positioned to increase its share in reserve assets and international settlement. Unlike renminbi, gold is nobody&amp;#x27;s liability and has no counterparty risk (assuming no jurisdiction risk, which can be greatly mitigated by storing the gold bullion domestically).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Given this, I expect the European countries to increase their gold holdings, via a combination of swaps from USD-denominated assets for gold and other FX currencies like the Chinese Yen.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/good-for-gold-bad-for-usd-us-tariffs-on-europe.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/good-for-gold-bad-for-usd-us-tariffs-on-europe" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-20 14:50&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/good-for-gold-bad-for-usd-us-tariffs-on-europe" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/good-for-gold-bad-for-usd-us-tariffs-on-europe</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 20 Jan 2026 14:50:08 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>A month ago me and Gemini 2.5 Pro Deep Research had a disagreement</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/a-month-ago-me-and-gemini-2-5-pro-deep-research-had-a</link><description>🇯🇵 Gemini said Japan will continue with QT, while I think they will be back to QE soon  With Japanese bond yields at ATHs - which one of the scenarios do you find more likely? 😁</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;🇯🇵 Gemini said Japan will continue with QT, while I think they will be back to QE soon&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;With Japanese bond yields at ATHs - which one of the scenarios do you find more likely? 😁&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/a-month-ago-me-and-gemini-2-5-pro-deep-research-had-a.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/a-month-ago-me-and-gemini-2-5-pro-deep-research-had-a" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2025-05-21 12:48&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;8 months later, Japan&amp;#x27;s 30 year bond yield is now ≈32% higher&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The yields on the 30Y Japanese bonds is approaching 4%. The yields are up across the whole tenor curve.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Soon, BoJ will have little options left but to resume QE and lower interest rates, and thus expand the Yen monetary base in an effort to reduce government refinancing costs (A.K.A. government bond yields).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I first wrote about this almost a year ago. The thesis for 2026 and onwards remains the same.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/8-months-later-japans-30-year-bond-yield-is-now-32-higher.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/8-months-later-japans-30-year-bond-yield-is-now-32-higher" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-21 06:30&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/a-month-ago-me-and-gemini-2-5-pro-deep-research-had-a" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/a-month-ago-me-and-gemini-2-5-pro-deep-research-had-a</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 21 Jan 2026 06:30:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Yesterday, I explained why silver mining stocks are undervalued in 2026</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/yesterday-i-explained-why-silver-mining-stocks-are</link><description>Today, silver miners are up almost 6% across major FX currencies 😄  Of course, it's to early to tell whether my thesis is correct, but I'll throw in another prediction: this upward price movement in…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Today, silver miners are up almost 6% across major FX currencies 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Of course, it&amp;#x27;s to early to tell whether my thesis is correct, but I&amp;#x27;ll throw in another prediction: this upward price movement in miners to continue.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/yesterday-i-explained-why-silver-mining-stocks-are.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/yesterday-i-explained-why-silver-mining-stocks-are" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-19 15:57&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Silver miners are up another ≈4% today, and more than 10% in the last 5 days 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;But this is unsurprising to you if you read my articles from a few days ago on miner/producer equity prices and why they present a great investing opportunity for this year&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/silver-miners-are-up-another-4-today-and-more-than-10-in-the.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/silver-miners-are-up-another-4-today-and-more-than-10-in-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-21 11:06&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/yesterday-i-explained-why-silver-mining-stocks-are" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/yesterday-i-explained-why-silver-mining-stocks-are</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 21 Jan 2026 11:06:17 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Copper Is A Great Investment In 2026 - Technicals &amp; Fundamentals Explained</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/copper-is-a-great-investment-in-2026-technicals-fundamentals</link><description>*A big part of this analysis also applies to copper miners, but I prefer to cover that in a separate article  From a technical standpoint, copper is currently flipping a ≈20 year old resistance for…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;*A big part of this analysis also applies to copper miners, but I prefer to cover that in a separate article&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;From a technical standpoint, copper is currently flipping a ≈20 year old resistance for support. On a monthly chart, copper is in a multi-year upwards channel, and it’s now close to the upper trend line of that channel. Copper is also at record lows when priced in terms of gold and silver.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;From a fundamental, supply/demand perspective, copper is required for electrification, data centers, new buildings, electric vehicles, and electric appliances in general.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;International Copper Study Group (ICSG) expects refined copper’s demand to surpass the available supply/production in 2026. Given that new copper mines are slow to build, increasing the supply of copper requires great investments of capital and time, and in case of continued increase of global copper demand, it may take decades for the production to meet that demand fully.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This creates a setup for a significant upwards price pressure on copper from current levels.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;It&amp;#x27;s also important to be aware of the metal&amp;#x27;s general price action. Copper is not gold - copper is significantly more volatile, but post 2021, the volatility has been more compressed to the upwards channel structure described above and shown in the chart.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Regarding the maximum drawdown from the current price levels (≈$5.90/lb), I don’t believe that copper will correct more than ≈15%, as there it will find a strong support area, and soon after the bottom support trend line from the monthly upwards channel, both of which will exert strong buying pressure. Within 6 months from now, I expect copper’s price to be above the current levels. This a risk-adjusted timeframe in which you should frame the current thesis - so it means that, for the same amount of capital, your investments in copper from today will be yield significantly more than they would in at the prevailing rate in money market funds. Realistically, I think it will happen much sooner than 6 months.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;In addition to everything above there is also monetary debasement, debt refinancing walls and negative pressures on USD dominance as a reserve currency. These 3, alongside the geopolitical tensions present an additional source of positive price pressure on the whole commodity sector. My copper price thesis is positioned within this liquidity flow into commodities. I’ve covered these points in detail in my previous posts.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/copper-is-a-great-investment-in-2026-technicals-fundamentals.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/copper-is-a-great-investment-in-2026-technicals-fundamentals" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-21 12:39&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/copper-is-a-great-investment-in-2026-technicals-fundamentals" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/copper-is-a-great-investment-in-2026-technicals-fundamentals</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 21 Jan 2026 12:39:37 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Don't Overthink Commodity Miners Investments</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/dont-overthink-commodity-miners-investments</link><description>I'm now coming across several large finance accounts on X, which are sharing the results of their miner equity picks from 2025 made available to groups/newsletters/communities with paid access. The…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;I&amp;#x27;m now coming across several large finance accounts on X, which are sharing the results of their miner equity picks from 2025 made available to groups/newsletters/communities with paid access. The results from their buy calls from just a few months ago look impressive - price more than doubling isn&amp;#x27;t uncommon. The keywords here are *isn&amp;#x27;t uncommon*. A 2x gain in the mining sector since November 2025 isn&amp;#x27;t impressive. When evaluating the quality of the calls, it&amp;#x27;s important that you establish the correct baseline.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;One examples of such buy calls was shared by Peter Schiff, who posted his investment suggestion from November 2025 on Nexa Resources S.A. (NYSE: NEXA), which is a miner/producer of zinc, copper, silver and some gold. Since November 2025, its stock price has more than doubled. This was shared as a part of a paid newsletter, whose November 2025 issue was made available to the public. While a &amp;gt;100% price increase may seem impressive, you could&amp;#x27;ve been better off by just investing in a larger, well established miners like Hecla, which are subjects to a smaller set of risks.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Speaking numbers, you could&amp;#x27;ve achieved a similar x2 gain since November 2025 by acquiring Hecla Mining Company stock (NYSE: HL) instead. Hecla is a well-established gold, silver, zinc and other metals miner with more than 60 years of price action dating back to 1964. In contrast, Nexa&amp;#x27;s price action dates back only by less than a decade - to 2017.  As such, you can achieve the result at the cost of a smaller risk. I&amp;#x27;ve shared Hecla Mining several times in my lists on my website throughout 2025 at no cost. I probably also shared others, but Hecla is the one that first comes to mind.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Here&amp;#x27;s what&amp;#x27;s important to understand:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;There&amp;#x27;s a global liquidity inflow into the commodities sector, which includes miners, producers &amp;amp; Co equities. The alpha comes from identifying outperformers relative to the index, conditional to risk. Well-established, long running companies generally come with a lower risk profiles, compared to less well established or juniors.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The question isn&amp;#x27;t whether you can get more upside gain with smaller cap miners/juniors, the question is whether that extra potential gain justifies the extra risk and cost. Frequently the most obvious choices are the best ones. Investing into several miner/producer indexes, alongside a few individual well established, large-cap picks may be all that you need.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/dont-overthink-commodity-miners-investments.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/dont-overthink-commodity-miners-investments" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-22 11:29&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/dont-overthink-commodity-miners-investments" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/dont-overthink-commodity-miners-investments</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 22 Jan 2026 11:29:29 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Silver Miners Are Up ≈12% Since My Recommendation From 4 Days Ago</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/silver-miners-are-up-12-since-my-recommendation-from-4-days</link><description>On January 18th 2026 I wrote an article explaining why silver mining stocks are undervalued, and how you should expect a price increase/breakout in the sector soon. 4 days after I published the…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;On January 18th 2026 I wrote an article explaining why silver mining stocks are undervalued, and how you should expect a price increase/breakout in the sector soon. 4 days after I published the article, the silver miners index is up more than 10%, and some individual large-cap names like Hecla Mining (whom I use for my longer-term silver miners proxy) are up more than 20%.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;You can read the article on silver miners outlook for 2026 here: &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/silver-mining-stocks-are-undervalued-in-2026" target="_blank"&gt;https://illya.sh/threads/silver-mining-stocks-are-undervalued-in-2026&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/silver-miners-are-up-12-since-my-recommendation-from-4-days.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/silver-miners-are-up-12-since-my-recommendation-from-4-days" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-22 16:09&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/silver-miners-are-up-12-since-my-recommendation-from-4-days" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/silver-miners-are-up-12-since-my-recommendation-from-4-days</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 22 Jan 2026 16:09:02 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Natural Gas Prices Are Very Volatile</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/natural-gas-prices-are-very-volatile</link><description>It's normal for natural gas prices to increase or decrease sharply. Among others, the demand for it is dependent on weather and subject to seasonality. This is very intuitive: if it's colder, there…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;It&amp;#x27;s normal for natural gas prices to increase or decrease sharply. Among others, the demand for it is dependent on weather and subject to seasonality. This is very intuitive: if it&amp;#x27;s colder, there is an increased demand for heat (fuels), and natural gas is that fuel. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The spike in natural gas prices in January 2026 can be explained by the severe cold/snow storms and their effects on supply, demand and storage across the United States and Europe.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;But you don&amp;#x27;t need to know any of that. All you have to do is open a historical price chart for natural gas.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;From 2020 to 2022, natural gas prices increased almost ≈x6.5 in price. Then, from 2022 to 2024, the prices fell by ≈84%, bottoming just ≈6% above the 2020 lows.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Thus, any sources proclaiming that &amp;quot;it is not normal&amp;quot; for NATGas to increase 70% in roughly two weeks, implying that it&amp;#x27;s a signal of a major distress in the system, are unlikely to be a reliable source on this topic.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/natural-gas-prices-are-very-volatile.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/natural-gas-prices-are-very-volatile" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-27 14:44&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/natural-gas-prices-are-very-volatile" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/natural-gas-prices-are-very-volatile</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 27 Jan 2026 14:44:59 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Today's Commodity Miners Sell-Off Is A Buying Opportunity</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/todays-commodity-miners-sell-off-is-a-buying-opportunity</link><description>I've made numerous such calls in the past, and they were correct 100% of the time. Today, I'm making one of such calls again.  Gold, silver and copper miners are down today, with indices and…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;I&amp;#x27;ve made numerous such calls in the past, and they were correct 100% of the time. Today, I&amp;#x27;m making one of such calls again.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Gold, silver and copper miners are down today, with indices and individual large caps falling by as much as ≈8%, despite the underlying metals remaining in the green. This is exactly the situation where you can leverage the increased volatility in the mining sector to increase your exposure to the underlying metals during an uptrend.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I expect the prices of gold and silver miners indices to increase by ≈30% from current levels within roughly 10 trading weeks from now. It may happen sooner than though - pay close attention to the price action.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;It&amp;#x27;s also possible for the price to dip lower than the current levels before the upwards move described above materializes. This mainly depends on the price action of the precious and industrial metals in the next few weeks, but I don&amp;#x27;t believe that either one of them has topped for the cycle, thus uptrend resumption is imminent.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I&amp;#x27;ve written several articles explaining why commodities and commodity miners are a great investment for 2026. I suggest you to read them if you haven&amp;#x27;t done so yet.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/todays-commodity-miners-sell-off-is-a-buying-opportunity.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/todays-commodity-miners-sell-off-is-a-buying-opportunity" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-27 16:33&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/todays-commodity-miners-sell-off-is-a-buying-opportunity" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/todays-commodity-miners-sell-off-is-a-buying-opportunity</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 27 Jan 2026 16:33:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Copper extends its gains to ≈9% on the day, and its appreciating more than gold and silver</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/copper-extends-its-gains-to-9-on-the-day-and-its</link><description>A week ago I wrote an article explaining why this upwards move in copper (and copper miners!) was imminent, from both fundamental and technical standpoints.  And don't be alarmed by near-term…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;A week ago I wrote an article explaining why this upwards move in copper (and copper miners!) was imminent, from both fundamental and technical standpoints.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;And don&amp;#x27;t be alarmed by near-term volatility. Keep the macro picture in mind under the lens of liquidity inflow into the commodity sector. I&amp;#x27;ve explained this extensively in my articles. You can read them all on my website for free (there is also an RSS feed you can subscribe to).&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/copper-extends-its-gains-to-9-on-the-day-and-its.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/copper-extends-its-gains-to-9-on-the-day-and-its" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-29 14:17&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/copper-extends-its-gains-to-9-on-the-day-and-its" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/copper-extends-its-gains-to-9-on-the-day-and-its</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 29 Jan 2026 14:17:35 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Palladium Is A Great Investment In 2026</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/palladium-is-a-great-investment-in-2026</link><description>Palladium already more than doubled since 2025, but its upwards move won't stop here, as it's setup to appreciate against both, USD and gold.  As I've previously explained, the current commodities…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Palladium already more than doubled since 2025, but its upwards move won&amp;#x27;t stop here, as it&amp;#x27;s setup to appreciate against both, USD and gold.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;As I&amp;#x27;ve previously explained, the current commodities supercycle will lead to a price increase across the whole set of commodities, which includes precious and industrial metals and their miners. Palladium is very well positioned for the next leg of liquidity inflow.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Against USD, palladium is currently trading at ≈$2075/oz. My 2026 target for Palladium is at least ≈$2500/oz, or up another ≈24% from current price levels. Platinum has recently rebounded from its monthly support line.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Against gold, palladium is in a similar situation, as its rebounding from a monthly support trend line. The current Palladium/Gold ratio is at ≈0.38. I expect it to rebound upwards to at least ≈0.7, meaning that palladium is setup to appreciate against gold. Even if gold retraces in the short-to-medium term, I don&amp;#x27;t expect that price drop be to neither permanent, nor long-lasting.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;There is also an ongoing deficit of palladium supply relative to its demand.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/palladium-is-a-great-investment-in-2026.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/palladium-is-a-great-investment-in-2026" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-29 14:42&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/palladium-is-a-great-investment-in-2026" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/palladium-is-a-great-investment-in-2026</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 29 Jan 2026 14:42:49 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Metropolitan Capital Bank &amp; Trust is the first US bank to fail in 2026</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/metropolitan-capital-bank-trust-is-the-first-us-bank-to-fail</link><description>January 30th 2026: Metropolitan Capital Bank &amp; Trust was closed by the Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation, appointing the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;January 30th 2026: Metropolitan Capital Bank &amp;amp; Trust was closed by the Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation, appointing the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as the receiver.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The failure is expected to cost the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) ≈$20M, but it can changed depending on the price the failed bank&amp;#x27;s assets are liquidated at.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Back in August 2019 the same bank was formally accused and investigated for unsafe and unsound banking practices by the regulators (FDIC, IDFPR). It was concluded that there were weaknesses in liquidity, solvency, management and asset quality. As a result of that, the bank was forced into a corrective action plan.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/metropolitan-capital-bank-trust-is-the-first-us-bank-to-fail.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/metropolitan-capital-bank-trust-is-the-first-us-bank-to-fail" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-01-31 10:39&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/metropolitan-capital-bank-trust-is-the-first-us-bank-to-fail" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/metropolitan-capital-bank-trust-is-the-first-us-bank-to-fail</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 31 Jan 2026 10:39:26 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>AI will follow a much more logarithmic growth than the hype may lead you to believe</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/ai-will-follow-a-much-more-logarithmic-growth-than-the-hype</link><description>We've been perpetually '6 months away from AGI', yet as amazing the SOTA generative models are - we're no where near that.  I don't believe that the current generative ML architectures will be…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;We&amp;#x27;ve been perpetually &amp;#x27;6 months away from AGI&amp;#x27;, yet as amazing the SOTA generative models are - we&amp;#x27;re no where near that.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I don&amp;#x27;t believe that the current generative ML architectures will be enough to deliver the promises even over the next decade. Generative models have their limits.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;There&amp;#x27;s also a massive AI bubble in the U.S., wit the same entities over promising on results directly benefiting from public funds, which get counted as revenue many times over. Maybe this need a new term like, rerevenuezation (like rehypothecation with bonds) 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;With that said, I don&amp;#x27;t think we&amp;#x27;re anywhere near the full benefits just from the tech we have available up to today. Agentic systems in particular.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/ai-will-follow-a-much-more-logarithmic-growth-than-the-hype" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-02-03 12:58&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/ai-will-follow-a-much-more-logarithmic-growth-than-the-hype" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/ai-will-follow-a-much-more-logarithmic-growth-than-the-hype</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 03 Feb 2026 12:58:26 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>No AGI With LLMs In Their Current Form.</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/no-agi-with-llms-in-their-current-form</link><description>Generative models are just one type of models in ML. Neither self-driving cars, nor inference about financial data primarily rely on generative models. Perhaps you can have LLM program that logic on…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Generative models are just one type of models in ML. Neither self-driving cars, nor inference about financial data primarily rely on generative models. Perhaps you can have LLM program that logic on the go, but that would require the LLM to effectively dominate those tasks (i.e. effectively become good at driving a car and being able to build sound financial models via a programming language), and given the probabilistic nature of the inference I don’t think we can have LLMs and agents fully taking over these critical areas. Regarding the probabilistic nature, I’m specifically referring the unsecured/unparameterized probability - it’s hard to modulate the potential error.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Right now, agent setups are very good at boilerplate, repeatable code - and most of the code is like that. Most of software development is already abstracted by various frameworks, and a lot of the softwares do very similar tasks and are implemented in similar ways, following specific patterns. Anecdotally, think of a generic SaaS - there are several competing products that do basically the same thing, because they solve a common problem. Agents/LLMs are already great at predicting code of which they have a lot of examples in their training set. This alone, is a massive productivity boost, especially if you are prototyping/iterating.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;To give a more concrete answer, the current tech would probably top out at multi-agent, multi-model and some form of DSL(s). So you would have multiple agents, some of them using distinct models. For example, one model for planning, another model for writing code, another model for debugging, etc. The DSLs would be used for both: customizing agents and models (input) and the model would output the code in a DSL (output). So when you ask the model to generate code, it would output it in a higher-level programming language/DSL, and then that one would either be compiled down/translated into a different target, wether that is machine code or a programming language like Python. The DSL design would be optimized for this “generative development” - in practice it will make things like math-induced security issues more difficult for LLMs to make (e.g. the DSL forces the LLM to use pre-defined cryptographic primitives, and at compilation time type metadata is associated to enforce its correct usage across schemes). So at this tech’s peak, the LLMs probably won’t be outputting their code in directly Python. I don’t mean that this is the peak for generative models or ML field as a whole, but for the current state of the tech and the approaches it uses.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Before the tech tops out, however, I think there will be a security issue at scale, followed by an increased focus on security of agents and the the inferred code. Since many products will be using the same models to generate code, the same flawed security patterns will arise in many places, and it will be “easy” to exploit them at scale. Even with detailed instructions, SOTA models still generate vulnerabilities. Even though most of the code is fine, it takes one small issue in a sensitive place to compromise the system - and if you write any non-trivial code with LLMs, you will run into them. I’ve encountered a lot of this issues myself, and in the code that I’ve reviewed from other developers who wrote their code with LLMs. Proper context helps a lot, but it doesn’t resolve the probabilistic nature of the output.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Regarding getting closer to human-like functionality, it will almost certainly require other ML schemes/approaches in addition to what we have now and further refining and combination of existing approaches. I think we will soon go into meta-models, where a model internally uses other models/sub models to produce the output (in its simplest form, think of a random forest that “choses” the most appropriate sub-model to run or the output which one of the sub-model’s outputs to use for the next step) - this can help mitigate some of the risks arising from the probabilistic nature of the inference. That would require coordinated, specialized agents, powered by meta-models.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Where I think we have a lot to still to gain with the current tech, even if its progress freezes, is education. LLMs provide a novel way to interact with digital information, you can do it in the same way that you would interact with another human - via spoken language. Being able to formulate your very specific questions, in your very specific way and usually getting a correct answer to it still amazes me to this day. If you combine generative models with VR, you get a whole new dimension of experiencing information, allowing to learn more effectively.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/no-agi-with-llms-in-their-current-form" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-02-05 17:07&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/no-agi-with-llms-in-their-current-form" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/no-agi-with-llms-in-their-current-form</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 05 Feb 2026 17:07:46 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Don't Be Fooled By Backtest Performance</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/dont-be-fooled-by-backtest-performance</link><description>I've been coming accross of posts on X from accounts showcasing 70%+ returns when backtesting their vibe-coded trading strategies. Don't be misguidaded by those numbers and claims.  Most likely it…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;I&amp;#x27;ve been coming accross of posts on X from accounts showcasing 70%+ returns when backtesting their vibe-coded trading strategies. Don&amp;#x27;t be misguidaded by those numbers and claims.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Most likely it performs well on historical data, but is random at best with new data.Agents are not that good at developing profitable trading strategies, as they tend to stick &amp;#x27;default&amp;#x27; statistical measures like RSI and hope for the best 😄 If it was that easy - everyone would do it, thus erasing any alpha&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;These vibe-coded models most likely overfitting&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/dont-be-fooled-by-backtest-performance" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-02-07 19:12&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/dont-be-fooled-by-backtest-performance" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/dont-be-fooled-by-backtest-performance</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 07 Feb 2026 19:12:58 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Scarcity Doesn't Make Bitcoin Better Than Gold</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/scarcity-doesnt-make-bitcoin-better-than-gold</link><description>Just because something is more scarce, doesn't mean it's more valuable. The number of existing Picasso paintings is much more scarce than Bitcoin - and that number won't increase.   Would you rather…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Just because something is more scarce, doesn&amp;#x27;t mean it&amp;#x27;s more valuable. The number of existing Picasso paintings is much more scarce than Bitcoin - and that number won&amp;#x27;t increase. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Would you rather have all of Picasso&amp;#x27;s paintings or all of the Bitcoin? Or maybe that&amp;#x27;s a bad example. If you own all of the Bitcoin, it&amp;#x27;s a big question what will the other market participants value it at -- definitely much below the current prices though.  &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;There&amp;#x27;s a lot more than you can do with gold than with Bitcoin. In fact, the nodes supporting Bitcoin network use gold in their connectors. Not to mention that you can take down Bitcoin, but you can&amp;#x27;t take down gold (just cut electricity and/or node subnets).  &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Moreover, saying that gold is &amp;quot;infinite&amp;quot; is wrong technically and practically. There is a big distinction in the amount of gold existent in the universe and Planet Earth, and the amount of gold that&amp;#x27;s economically viable to obtain.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;If your argument on why Bitcoin is better than gold relies heavily on the scarcity aspect - it&amp;#x27;s probably a weak argument.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/scarcity-doesnt-make-bitcoin-better-than-gold.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/scarcity-doesnt-make-bitcoin-better-than-gold" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-02-09 12:55&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/scarcity-doesnt-make-bitcoin-better-than-gold" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/scarcity-doesnt-make-bitcoin-better-than-gold</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 09 Feb 2026 12:55:11 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>My trading ML factory yielded ≈22% return on gold on a daily timeframe, which is almost a double of gold's return in the same time period (≈12%)</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/my-trading-ml-factory-yielded-22-return-on-gold-on-a-daily</link><description>This was after running in on price data of gold futures most recent drawdown from ≈$5600. The model yielded its largest returns by longing the pullbacks during the correction and closing the…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;This was after running in on price data of gold futures most recent drawdown from ≈$5600. The model yielded its largest returns by longing the pullbacks during the correction and closing the positions at the right time (the exit logic is based on deviations from price returns). This is very interesting, as it could be an indication of model&amp;#x27;s utility during drawdowns. Its largest loss was also during the same event frame, but I believe that can be greatly optimized with model parameters and thresholds (which I haven’t optimized at all yet).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The entry/exit times are imprecise, because the strategy is based on volume dollar bars sampling, which I&amp;#x27;m extracting/approximating from OCHLV data from TradingView.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Entry/exit decisions are driven by a random forest, which learns from the signals of various &amp;quot;experts”, and a tripple-barrier outcome of those signals. In practice, the experts are just Python functions which perform statistical analysis on the dollar volume feature matrix containing combined price history from various timeframes, and output a buy(1), sell(-1) or do nothing(0) signal. Then, the buy and sell signals from experts are passed to a random forest in a matrix, which then “learns” which combination of expert calls yields the most correct returns. The experts only produce position entry signals, each position is then closed based on standard deviation of price returns (intuitively: the position is closed when the price exhibits an “unusual” perceptual move, either up or down).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This trading ML factory was designed to work under significant constraints of historical price data. I limited it to the one available for export in TradingView. For example, 1 hour candle data only goes back a little over 2 years. In principle, there is little alpha to be extracted from here, but I was able to mitigate it by following a “hybrid spine” approach, where multiple timeframes are combined statistically and made available in the matrix passed to the random forest. More granular OCHLV data is scarce (e.g. the 1 minute OCHLV data that I have available for gold futures, goes back less than a month, and there are some continuity gaps in it), however it is still useful to provide some micromarket structure int terms of volume that the random forest can rely on. As such, the factory performs best on higher timeframes (4h and above).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The ML factory learns and predicts based on the prices of multiple assets (and the ratios between them). At the moment, it computes our to gold, silver and copper futures OCHLV data. But it’s designed to be dynamically extendable by adding CSVs with new asset price data.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Currently, I’m very much at the prototyping/exploratory phase with this project, so I don’t have the code publicly available yet. If you want access to the code, just reach out to me. I’m not claiming in any way that it will consistently yield &amp;gt;20% returns, and I understand that the trade count, trading data set granularity and backtesting timeframe are not sufficient for a strong statistical confidence in evaluating the quality of the model factory, but I am claiming that it provides a starting point for directing the factory’s approach. Also, trading costs, slippage, position sizing are not accounted for. Even with limited historical data, I believe that a careful selection of experts can yield profitable automated strategies.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/my-trading-ml-factory-yielded-22-return-on-gold-on-a-daily.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/my-trading-ml-factory-yielded-22-return-on-gold-on-a-daily" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-02-11 17:46&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Okay I found another source of overfitting/data leakage in my trading ML factory 😁&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The triple barrier label is computed at *position close time*, which is determined by which deviation from price returns hits first (upper bound, lower bound or timeout). The training set was including everything until a specific date, *BUT* many positions before that date close in the future - after the training cutoff date. I only got a few confirmed leaks from my run - but still overfitting.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;These series of posts I’ve been making, provide you with a small practical glance into why mere backtest performance is not an indication of absolutely NOTHING. This is also what essentially goes into constructing an automated, machine-learning driven trading strategy (or rather a factory for those!). It’s very easy to overfit.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;There are many large-following accounts on X/Twitter that post about the strategies that they discovered, with impressive performance on historical data. Usually those same accounts have ulterior motives, such as selling courses or access to trading signal groups. Be aware that their backtest results are NOT an indication that their strategy will work in a real-world scenario. As a general rule, if those pay-to-access strategies really performed that well with novel price data - the individuals running those strategies would be much better off operating on a fee-basis (i.e. they charge a percentage of returns on your capital, rather than a fixed fee.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/okay-i-found-another-source-of-overfitting-data-leakage-in.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/okay-i-found-another-source-of-overfitting-data-leakage-in" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-02-11 18:32&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/my-trading-ml-factory-yielded-22-return-on-gold-on-a-daily" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/my-trading-ml-factory-yielded-22-return-on-gold-on-a-daily</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 11 Feb 2026 18:32:21 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Fact-Check: Russia Moving Back To USD?</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/fact-check-russia-moving-back-to-usd</link><description>Today, financial news sources are flooded with information claiming that Russia is planning a return to the US dollar, as a part of wider strategic-economic partnership with Trump, but it is true?…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Today, financial news sources are flooded with information claiming that Russia is planning a return to the US dollar, as a part of wider strategic-economic partnership with Trump, but it is true?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Reportedly, Russia’s move back to USD comes packaged with other economic cooperation points, mostly around commodities (fossil fuels in particular). This is what mainstream financial media like Bloomberg, Reuters and accounts with millions followers on X have been spreading viciously today, many of which frame this as the end of BRICS and/or the successful policies of the Trump administration.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;What bothered me, is that none of them seem to clearly outline the source, mostly citing it as “Bloomberg reports”. This brings the obvious question: what sources did Bloomberg use in making this report? Well, reports regarding “Russia returning to USD settlement system” arise from an &amp;quot;internal Kremlin memo&amp;quot; that Bloomberg supposedly had access to. No further information is provided regarding the nature of this memo. No Russian state sources confirmed this information. It’s also not clear why Russia would seemingly sidestep their main strategic partner - China with this move (especially for those claiming the end of BRICS). So we are in a situation where Bloomberg claims they’ve seen X, and X gets spread as a fact, based on the claim by Bloomberg.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Major news sources are reposting this memo and framing it as Russias’s return to USD without stepping back to analyze it critically. Why would Russia, which gradually moved away from USD throughout the last 20 years, would suddenly reverse their policy to accept USD as the preferred medium of settlement? Would Russia trade in USD again — of course, I don’t believe they ever refused that.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Eventually, I fully expect Russia to be reintegrated back into international trade, and that includes trading in USD. I’ve written about that many times. What I do not expect is the Central Bank of Russia to dramatically increase USD instruments in their FX reserves. They were already sanctioned once, and that will remain a perpetual risk. Russia has successfully moved away from the U.S. Dollar, by replacing it with gold and renminbi, and they don’t have a serious dependency on US trade. If you think that you will have American companies owning Russian fossil fuel production in the near future you are mistaken.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So my take on this: claims of Russia’s return to USD settlement are overblown. This looks more like a coordinated campaign than something with real substance.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/fact-check-russia-moving-back-to-usd.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/fact-check-russia-moving-back-to-usd" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-02-12 17:10&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/fact-check-russia-moving-back-to-usd" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/fact-check-russia-moving-back-to-usd</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 12 Feb 2026 17:10:57 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Overfitting In Machine Learning Models Visualized</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/overfitting-in-machine-learning-models-visualized</link><description>I came across the visualization of 3 functions which demonstrate how a model can become overfit to noise.  So we are trying to estimate the function whose graph visualization is shown in figure A.…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;I came across the visualization of 3 functions which demonstrate how a model can become overfit to noise.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So we are trying to estimate the function whose graph visualization is shown in figure A. In A you see the true underlying function representation. Figures B and C are estimates for the true function shown in Figure A. In Figures B and C, a thin-plate spline fit is used to approximate the function shown in A. To obtain the function/model in Figure C, a smaller level of smoothness was used than in Figure B (less smoothing means more flexibility/effective degrees of freedom).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Figure B approximates the function pretty well, while Figure C fits the training data *perfectly*, with ZERO errors on the training data (in figure C you can see that all of the red points are on the yellow surface). However, you notice that the surface in figure C is a lot more variable/wiggly than in figure A - this is because in the process of constructing the function model in Figure C - we overfit on the noise in the training set!&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So by overfitting you are making your model extremely sensitive/adapted to the training data, and the model ends up learning from the noise instead of actual signals. Regarding a machine-learning approach to trading/finance - this is how you get &amp;gt;90% success rate while backtesting your model, but around random performance with novel real-world price data.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;You have to remember than beyond trivial use-cases, your models are never going to be perfect — and if they are, you are probably overfitting. You have to remember that any ML model that you construct *NEVER* perfect, due to the presence of irreducible errors, bias and variance.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/overfitting-in-machine-learning-models-visualized.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/overfitting-in-machine-learning-models-visualized" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-02-13 13:44&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/overfitting-in-machine-learning-models-visualized" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/overfitting-in-machine-learning-models-visualized</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 13 Feb 2026 13:44:06 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Central Bank of Russia Denies Return to USD Payments</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/central-bank-of-russia-denies-return-to-usd-payments</link><description>Just like I argued yesterday, claims by Bloomberg and other financial media suggesting that Russia is to return to USD settlement were misguided/wrong.  Not only those claims lacked factual basis,…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Just like I argued yesterday, claims by Bloomberg and other financial media suggesting that Russia is to return to USD settlement were misguided/wrong.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Not only those claims lacked factual basis, but also didn&amp;#x27;t make sense in terms of a macro picture.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Remember: just because a large-following news source claims something, it doesn&amp;#x27;t make it true. And do not discount for the existence of coordinated campaigns with ulterior motives. It doesn&amp;#x27;t have to be necessarily market manipulation -- just the engagement on its own can be a strong motivator.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/central-bank-of-russia-denies-return-to-usd-payments.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/central-bank-of-russia-denies-return-to-usd-payments" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-02-13 19:21&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/central-bank-of-russia-denies-return-to-usd-payments" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/central-bank-of-russia-denies-return-to-usd-payments</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 13 Feb 2026 19:21:29 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>How USA Profited 70% On Gold In 1 Year</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/how-usa-profited-70-on-gold-in-1-year</link><description>In 1933, the U.S. government purchased gold at $20.67/oz. In 1934, gold was valued at $35/oz, or ≈70% higher!  How did they do it? Easy:  1️⃣ Force public to liquidate gold at $20.67/oz 2️⃣ Raise…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;In 1933, the U.S. government purchased gold at $20.67/oz. In 1934, gold was valued at $35/oz, or ≈70% higher!&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;How did they do it? Easy:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ Force public to liquidate gold at $20.67/oz&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Raise the official gold price to $35/oz&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ Instant 70% profit 😄&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Had the United States citizens not surrendered their gold in 1933 (which would be illegal to do!), they would be 70% richer just a year later. Instead, that wealth was forcefully transferred to the government, and the people who surrendered their gold became 40% poorer just a year later.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/how-usa-profited-70-on-gold-in-1-year.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/how-usa-profited-70-on-gold-in-1-year" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-02-14 16:49&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/how-usa-profited-70-on-gold-in-1-year" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/how-usa-profited-70-on-gold-in-1-year</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sat, 14 Feb 2026 16:49:05 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Gold Outperformed Bitcoin In The Last 8 Years</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/gold-outperformed-bitcoin-in-the-last-8-years</link><description>Let's go back in time. It's December 2017. You have $1000 to invest, and you have 2 options: gold or Bitcoin. Which one would you choose?  If you bought $1000 worth of BTC at ≈$20K/BTC in December…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Let&amp;#x27;s go back in time. It&amp;#x27;s December 2017. You have $1000 to invest, and you have 2 options: gold or Bitcoin. Which one would you choose?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;If you bought $1000 worth of BTC at ≈$20K/BTC in December 2017, you&amp;#x27;d now have ≈$3500, or roughly a $2500 net profit.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;If you instead bought $1000 worth of gold at ≈$1260/oz, you&amp;#x27;d now have ≈$4000, or roughly $3000 net profit.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;And throughout those 8 years of holding, gold&amp;#x27;s price never crashed by ≈50%, like it&amp;#x27;s more or less the norm with Bitcoin &amp;amp; rest of the crypto.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Bitcoin can be a great idea for your portfolio, but if you&amp;#x27;re so determined to HODL long-term, you may be much better off with gold.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/gold-outperformed-bitcoin-in-the-last-8-years.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/gold-outperformed-bitcoin-in-the-last-8-years" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-02-15 17:03&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/gold-outperformed-bitcoin-in-the-last-8-years" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/gold-outperformed-bitcoin-in-the-last-8-years</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 15 Feb 2026 17:03:28 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>China Banned Gold &amp; Silver As Money In 1983</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/china-banned-gold-silver-as-money-in-1983</link><description>While it remained legal to hold gold as an individual in PRC, you couldn't: - Use gold/silver as money (unit of account/pricing) - Trade gold/silver privately (you could only sell it to PBoC) - Lend…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;While it remained legal to hold gold as an individual in PRC, you couldn&amp;#x27;t:&lt;br/&gt;- Use gold/silver as money (unit of account/pricing)&lt;br/&gt;- Trade gold/silver privately (you could only sell it to PBoC)&lt;br/&gt;- Lend or pledge (use as collateral) gold/silver&lt;br/&gt;- Act as a dealer of gold, unless authorized by PBoC&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So effectively, as an individual in PRC, you could only sell your gold &amp;amp; silver through the PBoC system, but it was fully lawful to own those metals. Only if you violated the rules above, authorities could force you to liquidate your gold to PBoC at a discount over the spot price.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This is a big contrast with the gold ban in the United States via Executive Order 6102 in 1933, which required all persons to surrender/liquidate their gold coins, bullion and certificates to the state. Moreover, in 1933 the U.S. government credited you $20.67 per oz gold that you surrender. About a year later, the same government that forced people to liquidate their gold at $20.67, proceeded to raise the price of gold to $35 per oz (at that time the price of the gold was fixed by the government, not determined by market price action like today). So the U.S. government made an instant ≈70% profit on the public&amp;#x27;s gold.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/china-banned-gold-silver-as-money-in-1983.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/china-banned-gold-silver-as-money-in-1983" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-02-16 11:25&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/china-banned-gold-silver-as-money-in-1983" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/china-banned-gold-silver-as-money-in-1983</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 16 Feb 2026 11:25:50 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>The random forest that guides my model factory needs refactoring</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/the-random-forest-that-guides-my-model-factory-needs</link><description>While the current architecture shows good prospects for generating profitable trading models, the random forest is currently a bit of a mess 😅 If you look at the image attached to the post, you can…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;While the current architecture shows good prospects for generating profitable trading models, the random forest is currently a bit of a mess 😅 If you look at the image attached to the post, you can see why.&lt;br/&gt; &lt;br/&gt;Since the random forest can’t extrapolate, features like the date and source segment will just make the forest learn on noise (it will train on association between those features, e.g. it’s not very useful to learn that volume in 2025 was higher than in 2024). But this was expected. The goal was to validate an architectural approach that could work. Now it’s time for optimizations and changes. Actually, changes before optimizations.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Another thing that I’ll get rid of is the hybrid spine for supporting data from multiple timeframes, as the model didn’t extract any meaningful alpha — and some of it has even confused the random forest. I’m sure there is way to make even with limited data, but I’ll be moving to testing it on dataset for which I have access to highly granular data (hello, Bitcoin!). So the logic of the data loader in the pipeline will be greatly simplified.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I’ll also make the labeler configurable, so that you can use the same set of features for different types of predictions. For example, you could have the “unconstrained” standard deviation labelling in the sense hat you can enter and exit the position at any time, to constrained logic scenarios such as the ones of Polymarket’s 5-minute price predictions on Bitcoin, where you can only enter a position at specific times, and the resolution happens at specific times (e.g. at the end of every 5th minute of the day, starting from 0).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The core logic of the ML pipeline remans the same.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-random-forest-that-guides-my-model-factory-needs.png" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-random-forest-that-guides-my-model-factory-needs" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-02-16 15:03&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/the-random-forest-that-guides-my-model-factory-needs" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/the-random-forest-that-guides-my-model-factory-needs</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 16 Feb 2026 15:03:02 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Primary Dealers Failures To Settle Implications For Risk Assets</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/primary-dealers-failures-to-settle-implications-for-risk</link><description>Security settlement failures on the dealer side are a signal of liquidity stress. In short, it signals that either collateral (securities) or USD liquidity are short. Generally, this is bearish for…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Security settlement failures on the dealer side are a signal of liquidity stress. In short, it signals that either collateral (securities) or USD liquidity are short. Generally, this is bearish for risk assets.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Dealers exercise a key liquidity role in the financial markets microstructure, so a significant stress on their operations will propagate throughout the market.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;You can anecdotally visualize this correlation in Bitcoin by noticing that the peaks of failures to receive/deliver by dealers coincide with at least short-term tops for Bitcoin prices.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This weekly set of data is made freely available by Office of Financial Research (OFR), and you can download it CSV or JSON formats. If you are incorporating this data into your machine-learning trading models, beware of the look-ahead bias, as this OFR data is released with about a week of delay.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/primary-dealers-failures-to-settle-implications-for-risk.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/primary-dealers-failures-to-settle-implications-for-risk" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-02-18 14:40&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/primary-dealers-failures-to-settle-implications-for-risk" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/primary-dealers-failures-to-settle-implications-for-risk</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2026 14:40:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Proxy Model From Polymarket's 15 Minute Bitcoin Price</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/proxy-model-from-polymarkets-15-minute-bitcoin-price</link><description>I found historical datasets for Polymarket's 15 minute up or down Bitcoin price and I think I can use this data to obtain useful signals via a proxy model. I'll start with linear regression to build…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;I found historical datasets for Polymarket&amp;#x27;s 15 minute up or down Bitcoin price and I think I can use this data to obtain useful signals via a proxy model. I&amp;#x27;ll start with linear regression to build a prediction model, to see if this transfer learning approach works here.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Yes, it will be overfitting, but for this signal generator it would be by design. The end goal is to find features that improve the random forest&amp;#x27;s split rules, thus further improving the win rate.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/proxy-model-from-polymarkets-15-minute-bitcoin-price.png" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/proxy-model-from-polymarkets-15-minute-bitcoin-price" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-02-18 16:06&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/proxy-model-from-polymarkets-15-minute-bitcoin-price" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/proxy-model-from-polymarkets-15-minute-bitcoin-price</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2026 16:06:22 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Vibe-Coding Vulnerabilities With Claude Code</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/vibe-coding-vulnerabilities-with-claude-code</link><description>A decade ago there was a joke that IoT stands for "Internet of Vulnerabilities", given how vulnerable many Internet of Things devices were and how easy it was to exploit them.  I think we will enter…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;A decade ago there was a joke that IoT stands for &amp;quot;Internet of Vulnerabilities&amp;quot;, given how vulnerable many Internet of Things devices were and how easy it was to exploit them.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I think we will enter an even bigger era of vulnerabilities with vibe-coded systems, especially with agents handling everything from feature development to deployment. You are outsourcing the security of your product/application to a probabilistic mathematical model, which hallucinates by design.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;For a sufficiently complex system, it&amp;#x27;s not a question of IF but of WHEN the LLM will make a security-compromising mistake. Unfortunately, large customer data leaks may become the norm.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;If you care about the secrecy of your data, I would advise you be very wary of products developed in such manner. Of course, for many use cases you may also not care about this, and prioritize lower cost or specific features. But you must be aware of the risks.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;You are essentially one prompt away from compromising your system and its data. We will probably even have new laws/regulations coming out to address this.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/vibe-coding-vulnerabilities-with-claude-code.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/vibe-coding-vulnerabilities-with-claude-code" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-02-18 16:19&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/vibe-coding-vulnerabilities-with-claude-code" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/vibe-coding-vulnerabilities-with-claude-code</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2026 16:19:50 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Out of Sample Permutation Feature Importance For Random Forest’s Feature Optimization</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/out-of-sample-permutation-feature-importance-for-random</link><description>After the first level of tuning of the random forest’s parameters, it came time to optimize the features on which the random forest gets trained on. I’ve already did a minor cleanup, but I didn’t…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;After the first level of tuning of the random forest’s parameters, it came time to optimize the features on which the random forest gets trained on. I’ve already did a minor cleanup, but I didn’t yet test for the predictive importance of each feature in the random forest.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;To optimize the random forest’s features, I’m using Out of Sample Permutation Feature Importance (OOS). The OOS approach consists in three core steps:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1️⃣ Train the random forest once on the training data&lt;br/&gt;2️⃣ Take out-of-sample validation data (testing data), permute the values of a single feature/values within the same column and pass them to the model trained in step 1.&lt;br/&gt;3️⃣ A feature is important for the model if the model’s predictive power reduces significantly when that feature’s values are randomly shuffled.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The “out of sample” part refers to the fact that the set of data used to train the model and evaluate it after permutations is distinct, thus reducing the contribution of noise to the evaluation metrics. By default, scikit-learn uses Gini Importance to rank features by their utility to the model. Gini is a bad metric for my data because of:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ High cardinality bias (it has an inherent bias towards continuous variables, and some of my features are discrete)&lt;br/&gt;➖ Gini importance is computed on the training data&lt;br/&gt;➖ In case of two correlated features, the random forest will randomly pick one at each split, but Gini will actually divide the importance between the two&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Additionally, the out-of-sample Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) of 0.7566 is unrealistically good for predicting 5-minute Bitcoin price moves. This value implies that if you pick a random 5-minute winning window and a 5-minute losing one, my model ranks the winner window ≈76% of the time. Either I found a model that beats virtually every financial institution in existence, or there is a lookahead bias and overfitting happening in the model. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Conclusion: my meta forest — the “seconds_to_settle” feature is basically carrying the entire model 😂 So in its current state, the random forest is training almost entirely on the time of day/time to expiration. The cleanup has started.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/out-of-sample-permutation-feature-importance-for-random.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/out-of-sample-permutation-feature-importance-for-random" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-02-20 15:08&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;As a result of the first step in optimizing/prioritizing the random forest’s features -- I&amp;#x27;ve dropped about half of them 😁&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/as-a-result-of-the-first-step-in-optimizing-prioritizing-the.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/as-a-result-of-the-first-step-in-optimizing-prioritizing-the" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-02-20 15:26&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;The random forest&amp;#x27;s features have been heavily refactored. I also replaced the polymarket feature with lookahead bias (the proxy model) with a combination of other indicators.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-random-forests-features-have-been-heavily-refactored-i.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-random-forests-features-have-been-heavily-refactored-i" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-02-20 16:51&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;The model factory has been refactored to use a DSL for configuring the pipeline -- so now you can visualize and configure the whole flow from a single place&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This also makes it easier for agents to autonomously discover and verify profitable trading strategies, but I&amp;#x27;ll cover that in more detail in another post 😁&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/the-model-factory-has-been-refactored-to-use-a-dsl-for.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/the-model-factory-has-been-refactored-to-use-a-dsl-for" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-02-24 12:55&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/out-of-sample-permutation-feature-importance-for-random" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/out-of-sample-permutation-feature-importance-for-random</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Tue, 24 Feb 2026 12:55:39 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Using Neural Networks To Find Imbalances In Limit Order Books</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/using-neural-networks-to-find-imbalances-in-limit-order</link><description>I've been working on model factory that predicts short-term asset movements. The model focuses on predicting whether the price of an asset at a future time T+c will be below or above the current…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;I&amp;#x27;ve been working on model factory that predicts short-term asset movements. The model focuses on predicting whether the price of an asset at a future time T+c will be below or above the current asset&amp;#x27;s price at time T. c is an arbitrary constant which in my model represents the number of minutes.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Currently, it&amp;#x27;s structured to match Polymarket&amp;#x27;s 5 minute BTC up or down markets, so this model can be used for trading on those markets. In this setup, the return is binary -- you either almost double or lose the whole position (assuming an entry as within a small delta of the market open). But this model can also be easily adapted to long/short futures positions with more flexibility on entry or exit times — it would require adapting the labeler and the backtest configuration (namely the cost model and position sizing).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The first version of the model factory relied on features derived from 1 minute OCHLV data for Bitcoin. I focused on setting up a multi-model pipeline, and generalize it into a configurable DSL-like experience. I also focused on avoiding a big part of overfitting/looking forward and doing the first level of parameter optimization. I was able to obtain a small edge (≈0.54 win rate), and short-run live tests showed the model to be profitable, however I’m not very sure how resilient it is to regime changes, nor I find the computed edge sufficient (the win rate is subject to the error from the models). I also wasn’t expecting to achieve a meaningful edge with just OCHLV data, so I’m integrating limit order book (LOB) data in order to extract price movement predictive patterns from the lower level dynamics that end up determining the price.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Given that the order book drives the market price, its reasonable to assume that there is a function that expresses the relationship between the current order book state, and in which direction that state is more likely to move the price in the short-term. It’s my first time working with LOB data, so I looked for papers which explore a framework for modeling price predictions based on a multi-level LOB with price and volume data for bid and ask at each level. After filtering through several options, I settled on one titled “DeepLOB: Deep Convolutional Neural Networks for Limit Order Books” by Zihao Zhang, Stefan Zohren, and Stephen Roberts. I liked it because the authors taking care in avoiding overfitting and leaking forwarding the data, by splitting the data set into one for training, one for validation and one for testing. The model is trained on the training set, the hyperparameters are optimized on the validation set, and the verification/backtesting is done on the test set. I also wanted to integrate neural networks into the pipeline, and DeepLOB model uses a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network in its construction.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The neural networks in DeepLOB works as follows. First, the raw LOB data passes through a CNN to summarize/extract patterns from the data via filters whose weights are learned by the network. The output then goes through the inception module, which is another CNN which operates with multiple convolutional filters if different sizes to capture multiple time window patterns. Then, the resulting matrix is passed to LSTM, which is a recurrent neural network, meaning it’s able to maintain “memory” of the past state when evaluating the new state. LSTM outputs a vector, which is then multiplied by a weight matrix to produce 3 raw scores (logits), which then get mapped to probability for each one of the 3 classes via Softmax: (Up, No Change, Down), which serve as a trading signal.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I’ll be incorporating something similar as signals/experts and/or features in the existing pipeline of my model factory. I’ll also extend the pipeline to add an additional split for the validation set to optimize the hyper parameters of the random forest. I’ll upload the code to GitHub soon, but note that it’s a work in progress.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/using-neural-networks-to-find-imbalances-in-limit-order.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/using-neural-networks-to-find-imbalances-in-limit-order" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-02-27 12:29&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/using-neural-networks-to-find-imbalances-in-limit-order" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/using-neural-networks-to-find-imbalances-in-limit-order</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Fri, 27 Feb 2026 12:29:38 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Why High Oil Prices Are Bad For USD (HINT: China &amp; Credit)</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/why-high-oil-prices-are-bad-for-usd-hint-china-credit</link><description>I don’t think that higher oil prices will help the value of US dollar medium to long-term this time. Higher oil prices induce higher prices for producers, which lead to higher prices for consumers.…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;I don’t think that higher oil prices will help the value of US dollar medium to long-term this time. Higher oil prices induce higher prices for producers, which lead to higher prices for consumers. The US economy is already extremely dependent on its refinancing capacity. Currently, there are liquidity stress signs across several Fed facilities, which make that refinancing/rolling-over more difficult.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Higher oil prices, means even more new financing to cover the additional costs, which will further increase the country&amp;#x27;s refinancing burden. So this would push up not only broad &amp;amp; base money, but also raise their &amp;quot;baseline&amp;quot;. The &amp;quot;baseline&amp;quot; will increase because the notional USD amount to refinance in the future will increase, meaning higher future liquidity needs.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;In the most basic sense, this will increase the domestic supply of USD. If you consider the current slow, but steady decrease of demand for US Treasury debt instruments -- that&amp;#x27;s reduced demand for USD. Increased supply, combined with a reduced demand, implies a lower price.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The most notable instance of Treasury holding reductions (including not rolling them) is by People&amp;#x27;s Republic of China -- the world&amp;#x27;s #1 largest exporter, and China&amp;#x27;s explicit goal of increasing the share of renminbi in international settlement. Although the first country to successfully move away from USD was Russia -- and they did that by effectively swapping USD-denominated assets for gold and renminbi. If you go back in history, you will find a presidential order from the Russian Federation&amp;#x27;s president instructing the Central Bank of Russia to increase their gold tonnage holdings back in 2005. Other sovereigns are likely replicate this model, at least in part.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I believe the ECB + NCBs in the EU may also soon move towards the direction of reducing the share of USD-denominated holdings in their balance sheets as well. This situation presents as a great opportunity for increasing share of EUR usage, as it&amp;#x27;s already the 2nd most used currency, following the USD. Increased bi-lateral trade agreements with China would strengthen both, Euro and renminbi via increased demand -- and there&amp;#x27;s an intrinsic incentive to do that, as there is a lot of value that can be imported, and is already being imported, from the PRC. This would of course lead to the increase of renminbi-denominated holdings across the central banks in the EU.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Due to the above, the demand for USD is facing a downward pressure, while USD liquidity is showing signs of stress, causing an upward pressure on its supply. Higher domestic prices will only push that supply further up, while leveraging the economy even further (more risk). Sure, higher oil prices means more demand for USD to buy oil in OPEC and higher export revenue, but I don&amp;#x27;t think that would be sufficient to offset the negative implications.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/why-high-oil-prices-are-bad-for-usd-hint-china-credit.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/why-high-oil-prices-are-bad-for-usd-hint-china-credit" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-03-02 15:48&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/why-high-oil-prices-are-bad-for-usd-hint-china-credit" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/why-high-oil-prices-are-bad-for-usd-hint-china-credit</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Mon, 02 Mar 2026 15:48:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Random Forest Cat: An ML Trading Factory</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/random-forest-cat-an-ml-trading-factory</link><description>I open-sourced a multi-model, machine-learning based factory for trading strategies on GitHub. It's written in Python and is highly customizable, as it exposes a framework for configuring the…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;I open-sourced a multi-model, machine-learning based factory for trading strategies on GitHub. It&amp;#x27;s written in Python and is highly customizable, as it exposes a framework for configuring the pipeline via a DSL.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Currently, it comes with two pipeline configurations: one that focuses on predicting wether the price of Bitcoin in 5 minutes will be higher or lower than now (Polymarket style), and a more generic strategy that shorts or longs Bitcoin at its own discretion.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This project also represents an experiment on enabling AI agents to discover trading strategies that will be profitable with real world, live price data. Clone the project and try asking an LLM to generate a profitable trading strategy using the framework.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;You can also just train your own model (or use mine) and use its signals for live trades. Beware that this is a work in progress. I&amp;#x27;ve already integrated an explicit split for a the validation set, but that code is not pushed yet -- I&amp;#x27;ll probably do it today. More improvements are also on the way.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;In either case, the current version of the code on GitHub works, so you can download and run it.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;GitHub Repository Link: &lt;a href="https://github.com/iluxonchik/random-forest-cat-ml-factory" target="_blank"&gt;https://github.com/iluxonchik/random-forest-cat-ml-factory&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/random-forest-cat-an-ml-trading-factory.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/random-forest-cat-an-ml-trading-factory" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-03-04 15:12&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/random-forest-cat-an-ml-trading-factory" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/random-forest-cat-an-ml-trading-factory</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:12:07 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Using DuckDB To Train A Neural Network On 500GB Of Price Data</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/using-duckdb-to-train-a-neural-network-on-500gb-of-price</link><description>I have ≈500GB of historical Bitcoin level 1 limit order book data to process and train a neural network on.  I don't want to overcomplicate the data access layer and definitely want to keep all of…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;I have ≈500GB of historical Bitcoin level 1 limit order book data to process and train a neural network on.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I don&amp;#x27;t want to overcomplicate the data access layer and definitely want to keep all of the training, validation and inference in Python. A simple file-based DuckDB setup sounds like a good solution for this, as it allows for iterative in-memory data loading within the model training code -- this is because DuckDB already implements all of those nice abstractions that allow it to load large datasets lazily/on-demand. So I&amp;#x27;ll neither need 500GB of RAM, nor a dedicated DBMS process.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The model will be trained using a walk-forward strategy, so several versions of neural network weights/trained models will be generated. This means the amount of data loaded into the memory will be limited in either case. I may rely on DuckDB for some algebraic processing when querying data, but for now I&amp;#x27;m planning to mostly filter for events within a specific time range.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I used DuckDB several times before for finance applications, but not to actively process such a large amount of data, so I will report back if something goes wrong.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/using-duckdb-to-train-a-neural-network-on-500gb-of-price.png" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/using-duckdb-to-train-a-neural-network-on-500gb-of-price" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-03-05 14:35&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/using-duckdb-to-train-a-neural-network-on-500gb-of-price" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/using-duckdb-to-train-a-neural-network-on-500gb-of-price</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Thu, 05 Mar 2026 14:35:13 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Crue Oil: United States Acts, Russia Benefits (Once Again)</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/crue-oil-united-states-acts-russia-benefits-once-again</link><description>Despite the heavy international sanctions, Russia is now selling Urals oil at a ≈$5 premium over Brent oil. Usually, Urals trades at a discount to Brent, so this is a relatively unusual situation.…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Despite the heavy international sanctions, Russia is now selling Urals oil at a ≈$5 premium over Brent oil. Usually, Urals trades at a discount to Brent, so this is a relatively unusual situation. This is, of course, caused by the U.S. military force use against a sovereign nation once again.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;While oil production and export from the Arab Gulf region has now greatly reduced, the demand for oil didn&amp;#x27;t follow that downtrend. 20% of all oil passes Straight of Hormuz, the flow through which is now heavily limited. As a result, a significant part of that demand has now shifted towards Russia, which is capitalizing on that demand by selling crude oil, not only for a higher price, but also at a premium!&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;High oil prices are also great news for Ruble. More than ≈50% of Russian oil exports are in foreign currencies, but exporters must pay their taxes in Rubles. As such, exporters must sell foreign currencies to purchase Ruble, which drives its price up. Additionally, since 2020 Russia has policies in place which cause high oil prices to usually lead to further accumulation of gold by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR): excess revenue from taxes resulting from oil sales above ≈59$/barrel are directed to the NWF for investing in precious metals (mostly gold) and FX (mostly renminbi/yuan). So instead of spending the extra revenue immediately, it gets invested.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The mechanism by which the FX &amp;amp; gold purchase happens from excess gas and oil revenues is also interesting to explore. NWF is administrated by Russia’s Ministry of Finance (MoF), and it’s effectively MoF doing those purchases on behalf of NWF. So every time revenues from oil and gas taxes exceed the benchmark price, the MoF buys foreign assets and gold from the CBR, which then immediately repurchases what it had just sold to the MoF/NWF. As a result of this sanitization mechanism, the Central Bank of Russia net holdings of gold/FX currencies remain constant, while the net asset holdings of the NWF increase — so in net terms the Russian government holds more gold and FX.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Imagine on a given period Russia recovered an extra revenue of $100M over the benchmark. Under the structure described above, the Russian government will not immediately spend those $100M, but instead invest them into gold &amp;amp; FX currencies. The step-by-step process looks something like this:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;1. MoF buys $40M worth of gold from the CBR&lt;br/&gt;2. CBR repurchases $40M worth of gold from domestic Russian market, using the proceeds from 1&lt;br/&gt;3. MoF buys $60M worth of renminbi from the CBR&lt;br/&gt;4. CBR repurchases $60M worth of renminbi from FX markets, using the proceeds from 2&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;As you can see, the combination of steps above leaves Russia with more gold and FX reserves than before.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;For the month of March 2026, the Russian Federation has paused the gold/FX purchases from excess revenue from oil and gas. However, I don’t think that this pause will remain in effect much longer, as it has been explicitly linked to lowering the Ural’s oil revenue threshold from the current ≈$59 per barrel, potentially down to $45-50 per barrel. For now, all of the excess revenue from oil and gas will be going to the federal budget, available for its immediate liquidity needs.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So whichever way you look at it — Russia massively benefits from the raise in price of commodities and precious metals, namely gas, oil, gold and silver.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/crue-oil-united-states-acts-russia-benefits-once-again.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/crue-oil-united-states-acts-russia-benefits-once-again" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-03-08 15:55&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/crue-oil-united-states-acts-russia-benefits-once-again" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/crue-oil-united-states-acts-russia-benefits-once-again</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 08 Mar 2026 15:55:12 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Crude Oil Prices Continue To Increase</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/crude-oil-prices-continue-to-increase</link><description>Over the past year, I've reiterated multiple times on the fact that that oil prices will continue to increase and that they'll soon be back up above their June 2025 prices. This happened again…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Over the past year, I&amp;#x27;ve reiterated multiple times on the fact that that oil prices will continue to increase and that they&amp;#x27;ll soon be back up above their June 2025 prices. This happened again today, with Brent Crude Oil being up more than 10% on the day.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;About 8 months ago I wrote a thread explaining and predicting an increase in oil and gold prices in the near future. Since then:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;➖ Brent Crude Oil went up ≈17%&lt;br/&gt;➖ Gold went up ≈65%&lt;br/&gt;For reference, in the same time period, S&amp;amp;P 500 went up ≈18%.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Worldwide oil trade was (and still is!) subject to great geopolitical risk, part of which is materializing now. In addition to that, monetary debasement continues its course and military conflicts have a tendency to exuberate it, via increased demand, sovereign debt and spending.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Despite that, many continue to believe that violating the International law by invading a sovereign nation and kidnapping their leader implies lower oil prices, just because that sovereign nation is in procession of that natural resource. Of course, the reality is much more complex due to factors such as the required level skill/proficiency, infrastructure, internal risk and the implications of current geopolitical events on the international trade.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;To conclude, remember: commodities are at the base of global real economy, and there will be a demand for them almost &amp;quot;no matter what&amp;quot;. Of course, not all commodities come with the same risk profile -- I will refer you to my past posts on this topic, which you can read under the &amp;quot;commodities&amp;quot; articles category on my website.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/crude-oil-prices-continue-to-increase.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/crude-oil-prices-continue-to-increase" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-03-02 14:48&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;Brent Crude Oil breaks above $90, and its headed higher!&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;You can add this to my list of correct predictions. Last time oil was this expensive was more than 2 years ago in 2023.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Perhaps it&amp;#x27;s obvious at this point -- but it won&amp;#x27;t top out at $90 😄&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/brent-crude-oil-breaks-above-90-and-its-headed-higher.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/brent-crude-oil-breaks-above-90-and-its-headed-higher" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-03-06 14:31&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;And just like that... highest oil prices since 2022 -- just a few percent shy from the heights of May 2nd 2022&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I have first warned about an incoming large increase in oil prices ≈8 months ago&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/and-just-like-that-highest-oil-prices-since-2022-just-a-few.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/and-just-like-that-highest-oil-prices-since-2022-just-a-few" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-03-08 22:33&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/crude-oil-prices-continue-to-increase" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/crude-oil-prices-continue-to-increase</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Sun, 08 Mar 2026 22:33:46 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Don't Expect $60 Oil In 2026</title><link>https://illya.sh/threads/dont-expect-60-oil-in-2026</link><description>$36 billion worth of oil will be released from strategic reserves of 32 countries, in an effort suppress the oil's price down price down. However, I don't believe those efforts will be enough.…</description><content:encoded>&lt;div style="line-height:1.4;"&gt;$36 billion worth of oil will be released from strategic reserves of 32 countries, in an effort suppress the oil&amp;#x27;s price down price down. However, I don&amp;#x27;t believe those efforts will be enough.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;International Energy Agency (IEA) has just approved the largest oil release from its member countries strategic reserves. As an emergency measure, 400 million barrels of oil will be channelled into the markets from sovereign reserves, which is more than double of the previous record of 182 million barrels in 2022. Replacing Russian oil in 2022 was mostly a supplier problem, while Straight of Hormuz is a major route for many suppliers, making the disruption of flow through it a global logistics challenge. I consider this to be objective stress signal on the oil supply market, which acts as upwards price pressure. The market seems to agree with me, at least in the short term, given that even on these news Brent Oil is still trading around ≈$90 per barrel.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;While the release of oil reserves by IEA members will exert downward pressure on the price of oil while that release lasts - there is no free lunch. Not only those reserves would need to be replenished, but it also expose the IEA countries to increased risk due to reduced domestic oil supply. This is another supply stress factor that will need to be resolved.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Geopolitical risk is perhaps the most obvious driver behind the recent oil price increase, and even in case of a de-escalation the risk will decrease to levels that are higher than at the start of 2026. The damaged oil production and logistics infrastructure will also need to be restored and other similar costs covered. As such, the geopolitical risk baseline has been elevated, and it will remain elevated at least until the end of this year.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;For these reasons, it will probably take a while for the oil prices to decrease towards the ≈$60 area. To be very specific - I don&amp;#x27;t believe oil will fall down to $60 in 2026.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style="margin-top:6px;"&gt;&lt;img src="https://illya.sh/staticthoughts/data/images/dont-expect-60-oil-in-2026.jpg" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:4px;" alt="Image"/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p style="margin:6px 0 12px 0; font-size:0.82em; color:#666;"&gt;&amp;middot; &lt;a href="https://illya.sh/thoughts/dont-expect-60-oil-in-2026" style="color:inherit; text-decoration:none;"&gt;2026-03-11 14:28&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style="margin-top:12px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://illya.sh/threads/dont-expect-60-oil-in-2026" style="text-decoration:none;"&gt;Read this thread on illya.sh&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content:encoded><author>hello@illya.sh (Illya Gerasymchuk)</author><guid isPermaLink="true">https://illya.sh/threads/dont-expect-60-oil-in-2026</guid><category>crypto</category><category>finance</category><category>law</category><category>AI</category><category>software development</category><category>economics</category><category>blockchain</category><category>markets</category><pubDate>Wed, 11 Mar 2026 14:28:16 +0000</pubDate></item></channel></rss>