Illya Gerasymchuk
Entrepreneur / Engineer
a cut larger than 25bp is highly unlikely, since the current CME's 30 Day Federal Funds Futures price strongly implies a 4.0%-4.25% target rate this is 25bp/0.25% below the current target rate of 4.25%-4.5%
based on the current Fed policy guidance available since June 2025, by the end of 2025 the Fed Funds rate should be ≈3.9% current one is 4.25%-4.50%, so we either get a larger than 25bp cut or several rate cuts this year