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Illya Gerasymchuk
Financial & Software Engineer

Bitcoin market, cycles & ETF flows

Timeline of BTC price action, halving-cycle milestones, ETF flows and correlations with macro liquidity.

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Illya Gerasymchuk

2025-06-21 22:14

silver was another spot-on prediction ✅

2.5 months later the price is up ≈25%

silver's price uptrend will continue

when silver's price increase is in the magnitude of risky assets - it's clearly telling you something

listen to it 🦻

silver was another spot-on prediction ✅
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Silver back to August 2020 price

After a tariffs-induced pullback of 15% today, silver is now at start of COVID prices

So much inflation that still isn't priced in

It will recover. And a lot!

Silver back to August 2020 price
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Illya Gerasymchuk

2025-06-20 19:23

🎯 Ethereum heading down towards $2180

exactly as I've been writing for several days

so many accounts with huge following were promising you an immediate bull run

now you know which ones you can mute 😄

🎯 Ethereum heading down towards $2180
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🎯 Ethereum fell below $2500

first part of my thesis has already played out - a retracement instead of a breakout

weekly candles show constant rejection

now await for what comes next ⏰

🎯 Ethereum fell below $2500
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Illya Gerasymchuk

2025-06-16 13:49

💾⏰ Just like with my post about the price of gold a few months ago - feel free to save & set a reminder for this one

The prediction will be correct once again

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'The market is never wrong'

A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything & prices accordingly - even before the official news

Okay.

Now wait & watch crude oil & gold raise up even more in price very soon

This isn't a joke

'The market is never wrong'
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Illya Gerasymchuk

2025-06-13 01:52

While Gold & Oil are up, Ethereum and Bitcoin are down

As expected. A practical reminder that BTC, ETH & altcoins are NOT reserve assets

I am big believer in crypto & DeFi - but it's important to remain rational, even if you are entertained

While Gold & Oil are up, Ethereum and Bitcoin are down
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Illya Gerasymchuk

2025-04-27 15:52

🚨 ETH & BTC shorts update:

Short positions on Bitcoin & Ethereum are gradually reducing

Institutional net position on cryptocurrencies is still short, but only a half from the start of the year

🚨 ETH & BTC shorts update:
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Illya Gerasymchuk

2025-04-02 23:49

🚨 Bitcoin Reacts To US Tariffs:

As expected, a massive BTC sell-off post Trump's tariffs announcement

The price peaked during the speech, and then dumped down more than 6% so far + US dollar index is down

A move away from riskier assets & USD into Gold & foreign currencies https://

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Illya Gerasymchuk

2025-04-02 21:56

🔴 $BTC, $DXY & $XAU during Trump's tariffs speech

Interesting to observe the negative correlation between Bitcoin & US Dollar Index

Gold wasn't clearly correlated with either. This makes sense - the tariffs lead to uncertainty regarding the reserve currency & central bank… https://t.co

🔴 $BTC, $DXY & $XAU during Trump's tariffs speech
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Illya Gerasymchuk

2025-04-02 18:00

🚨 JUST IN: $87K Bitcoin

This is just a pre-tariffs announcements pump that will sell off once Trump speaks in a few hours, right? 😁

🚨 JUST IN: $87K Bitcoin
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Illya Gerasymchuk

2024-12-14 16:29

🚨JUST IN: Quantum Computer Hacked #Bitcoin

Satoshi Nakamoto has been suspiciously quiet since the news broke out 🤫

According to experts on social media, the recent advancements in quantum computing have just made Bitcoin obsolete. Of course, neither the market, nor…

🚨JUST IN: Quantum Computer Hacked #Bitcoin
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Illya Gerasymchuk

2024-11-15 10:15

Part of Bitcoin's value derives from the total electricity cost of maintaining a decentralized, trustless, immutable ledger of transactions for >15 years

20% of GDP is spent on financial services. Blockchains remove intermediaries & improve efficiency

It's apples to oranges 🤷‍♀️ https:/

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Illya Gerasymchuk

2024-11-05 21:36

🚀🎧 Podcast covering #BRICS Currency on the blockchain is out!

🔗🔈:

🤖 Smart contracts & #DeFi are an ideal match for #BRICSPay showcased at #BRICS2024 summit. Podcast & article exply why

🎤 AI Audio created with NotebookLM https://

🚀🎧 Podcast covering #BRICS Currency on the blockchain is out!
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Illya Gerasymchuk

2024-04-28 19:28

Read the full article to dive deeper into how the BRICS digital currency can be realized as a cryptocurrency on a public blockchain. 📖

🔗 https://illya.sh/blog/posts/brics-cryptocurrency-blockchain/

Let's discuss! Share your thoughts below🗣️

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🌟 By embracing public blockchains and ZeroKnowledge technologies, the BRICS digital currency can pioneer a new era of finance🔮

A more efficient, interoperable, decentralized, and inclusive financial system aligned with Web3 principles 🌍

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Illya Gerasymchuk

2024-04-28 19:28

🌟 By embracing public blockchains and ZeroKnowledge technologies, the BRICS digital currency can pioneer a new era of finance🔮

A more efficient, interoperable, decentralized, and inclusive financial system aligned with Web3 principles 🌍

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🧩 Implementing the BRICS currency on a public blockchain reduces cost & complexity

The dynamic supply is controlled by smart contracts, while ZKPs bridge data from arbitrary sources 🌉

Demand is driven by incentives for participating in the BRICS economic network 💰

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Illya Gerasymchuk

2024-04-28 19:28

🧩 Implementing the BRICS currency on a public blockchain reduces cost & complexity

The dynamic supply is controlled by smart contracts, while ZKPs bridge data from arbitrary sources 🌉

Demand is driven by incentives for participating in the BRICS economic network 💰

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🌍 Integrating zkLocus allows associating geolocation data with each BRICS transaction while preserving user privacy 🔒

zkLocus turns geolocation into a programmable real-world asset (RWA), enabling location-based fees and taxation📍

✨ Native on MinaProtocol

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Illya Gerasymchuk

2024-04-28 19:28

🔍 Let's explore how the BRICS currency can leverage these technologies:

✅ Dynamic supply mechanism via smart contracts
✅ Legal compliance on-chain using ZKPs
✅ Integration with DeFi and zkLocus for authenticated private geolocation

👉 A cryptocurrency for Web3

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💡 While the original paper suggests the impossibility of realizing the BRICS currency as a cryptocurrency, we'll challenge it 🤔

A public blockchain with SmartContracts, combined with Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP), provides a natural fit for the implementation 🧩

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Illya Gerasymchuk

2024-04-28 19:28

🌍 The BRICS digital currency aims to integrate with existing monetary systems, creating a unified economic area for member nations 🤝

Its value is algorithmically derived from various economic factors of the participating countries 📈

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🚀 BRICS Digital Currency: Cryptocurrency on a Public Blockchain 🪙

In this article, we explore how the BRICS currency can be implemented on a public blockchain and challenge the claims made in "Digital Money Options for the BRICS" for Web3

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Illya Gerasymchuk

2024-04-28 19:28

💡 While the original paper suggests the impossibility of realizing the BRICS currency as a cryptocurrency, we'll challenge it 🤔

A public blockchain with SmartContracts, combined with Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP), provides a natural fit for the implementation 🧩

User

🌍 The BRICS digital currency aims to integrate with existing monetary systems, creating a unified economic area for member nations 🤝

Its value is algorithmically derived from various economic factors of the participating countries 📈

User
Illya Gerasymchuk

2024-04-28 19:28

🚀 BRICS Digital Currency: Cryptocurrency on a Public Blockchain 🪙

In this article, we explore how the BRICS currency can be implemented on a public blockchain and challenge the claims made in "Digital Money Options for the BRICS" for Web3

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Illya Gerasymchuk

2024-01-23 17:42

Very interesting to see the #BitcoinEFT used as a liquidity exit

And only a few days ago the supply APY on most FIAT stable coins was over 20% on #AAVE You could mistake this for a bullish sign, in an apparent short of FIAT for #crypto

Always analyze the big picture

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Illya Gerasymchuk

2023-12-11 23:23

If you only understood how cheap gold is now. To put it in perspective, its current FIAT price only reflects inflation prior to 2011 🤯

Any direct or indirect inflation following that time period has not yet been accounted for

You don't have to trust me. Trust the price action

If you only understood how cheap gold is now. To put it in perspective, its current FIAT price only reflects inflation prior to 2011 🤯
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Illya Gerasymchuk

2023-10-26 19:55

🤯 Zero-Knowledge cryptography is how the blockchain will connect to the outside world. As the ZK field matures, so will the blockchain use cases. Two computation models that were meant for each other.

#zk #blockchain #evm #crypto #mina #Bitcoin #smartcontracts

🤯 Zero-Knowledge cryptography is how the blockchain will connect to the outside world. As the ZK field matures, so will the blockchain...
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Illya Gerasymchuk

2023-05-17 23:43

📚 A detailed explanation of what BRC-20 are and how they work can be found on this thread:

https://illya.sh/threads/@1684348771-1.html

BRC20 Ordinals Inscriptions Bitcoin

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🚀 BRC-20 is also less efficient than ERC-20. Any mildly complex system built around BRC-20 heavily relies on caching. In contrast, ERC-20 is extremely efficient, cryptographically protected, and operates seamlessly on the blockchain

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Illya Gerasymchuk

2023-05-17 23:43

🚧 Contrary to popular belief, BRC-20 isn't fully on the Bitcoin blockchain. Yes, the text is stored as part of Taproot Bitcoin transactions, but Bitcoin isn't aware of BRC-20s. You need an external, off-chain tool to parse and calculate balances

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🪙 BRC-20 doesn't limit the minting of tokens. There is no way of knowing wether a token has been fully minted without parsing every “mint” text record. Conversely, ERC-20 ensures that only a predetermined amount of a token can exist, providing a more controlled ecosystem.

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Illya Gerasymchuk

2023-05-17 23:43

🚀 Debunking a common misconception in the Crypto world: BRC-20 superiority over ERC-20

If you've heard BRC-20 is better, let's dive into some facts that might make you rethink that claim

🚀 Debunking a common misconception in the Crypto world: BRC-20 superiority over ERC-20
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Illya Gerasymchuk

2023-05-17 19:39

🎯 Keep in mind that transaction fees and the size of the inscription can affect costs. As the inscription size increases, so does the transaction size, potentially impacting fees required for inclusion in a block

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🖼️ Inscriptions demonstrate the versatility of the Bitcoin blockchain, enabling storage of arbitrary data. From artwork to text, the possibilities are endless. Ordinal Theory opens new avenues for creativity and innovation on the blockchain.