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Illya Gerasymchuk
Entrepreneur / Engineer

Gold: macro, inflation, miners and price

Ongoing updates on gold price action, central-bank demand, miners and macro drivers in the precious-metals market.

User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-05-21 22:14

Who's ready for a new gold ATH? 🙋

You don't have to guess - just look at the systemic raising bond yields across all maturities & multiple sovereigns

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-05-19 12:58

Btw I've since learned that gold is only ≈10% of total reserves of the Portuguese Central bank - that's low

It's 80% of their international reserves - those are basically regulation-defined ratios that banks must maintain (look into BASEL rules if curious)

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-05-12 18:47

🤯 Of course temporary, but still - Gold down 3% today

Outflows into equities

However, some gold-linked currencies like Ruble are up 2.5%

Volatility is a measure of risk. Gold volatility is an expression of the baseline systemic risk

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-05-10 15:00

⚡️You can now create GOLD from lead⚡️

1g gold = two quintillion dollars ($2 × 10¹⁸)

1 gold ring contains x170 billion more gold that LHC produced over 4 years

Oh, and that newly minted Au fragments into other particles almost immediately 😁

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-25 11:30

Regarding the 1492 'gold top' & 533 years breakeven - the information is misleading

These price extrapolations made a lot of assumptions & simplifications

Perhaps most importantly, pre-1700's gold prices were fixed by the government - not a trade/free market derived price

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-25 11:00

Now that gold is down & below $3.3K, it's a good time to say this:

🎉 New ATH coming very soon 🎉

In the time of political, civil & economic ambiguity - there is only one recourse - Au

Lower interest rates & QE are coming soon - FIAT down, gold up

💾 Save this & check back

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-24 12:08

Correlation between Ruble & Gold 🇷🇺🥇:

Gold up ➡️ Ruble up
Gold down ➡️ Ruble down
Gold sideways ➡️ Ruble sideways

Russia could make RUB gold-backed, make RUB convertible to gold on demand & position RUB as a 'trustless'/money-backed currency

Already halfway through there

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-23 22:45

🇷🇺 Ruble is correlating with gold

This also explains the recent fall in price. Gold went down against USD & so did RUB

Such a retracement after multiple consecutive ATHs is expected

Fundamentals are still on the side of gold

🧠 Remember: gold is 35% of Russia's int'l reserves

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-23 12:02

🇨🇳China has been increasing their gold reserves YTD

Gold price keeps going up - major central banks continue to load up

Gold is a hedge against USD. Tariffs are a medium of USD weaponization

👉 Expect US securities sell-off for gold by People's Bank of China

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-23 11:30

🇯🇵 BOJ's gold holdings have been constant for 10 years

But gold value has skyrocketed - does that mean Japan has been selling gold?

No. Articles 3 & 13 of Accounting Rules of BOJ imply that gold holdings are recorded at book value/purchase value, rather than market/spot price

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-21 08:06

🚨UPDATE: Gold has now reached $3400

All time highs, followed by more all time highs

Remember: gold is not increasing in value, but rather the underlying currencies are falling in value

Expect this trend to continue

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-19 01:21

🇷🇺 Ruble correlates with gold, becoming a hedge against USD

USD falls against both, Ruble & gold

Russian Central Bank has been continuously increasing their gold holdings, which are currently more than 1/2 the size of their foreign currency reserves & 35% of int'l reserves

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-19 01:08

I've referred to gold being 35% of Russian Central Bank's foreign currency reserves, when I in fact meant international reserves

The core idea is unchanged - this is a technicality. Central Bank of Russia reports:

International Reserves = Foreign Exchange Reserves + Gold

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-18 08:52

🇵🇹 Portugal's Central Bank is LOADED with gold

👉 Gold reserves are >80% of total assets

Props to @bancodeportugal for a healthy balance sheet ratio

From now on - only gold-sprinkled pastéis de nata!

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-16 20:48

🥱 Gold hitting another ATH

At this point it's boring lol

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-16 16:58

🚨BREAKING: Gold….

Actually, gold has been reaching new ATHs every other day

Not BREAKING anymore - the new normal 🤷‍♀️

Heading for $3.4K now

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-11 17:25

I think now you understand 😁

Gold hitting ATH after ATH 🎉

Very concerning for USD

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-11 00:58

To clarify - here you're stating with US Dollar and then buying either Ruble or Gold. It's in this scenario that both investments have a similar yield

If you start with EUR, Ruble actually yields more than Gold - 9.3 vs 11% (in the past 3 months)

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-11 00:03

And Ruble is up on Gold since January 🤯

All while Gold is at ATH & it's extremely difficult to buy ruble or any Russia-issued financial instruments due to sanctions

Loading up foreign reserves with gold & selling US Treasury securities worked ✅

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-07 01:15

Gold is down 6% from its ATH

Still better than equities, crypto & silver

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-05 14:33

PHYSICAL GOLD RUSH

It's not just Central Banks anymore

In the first 4 days of April 2025, over 52K COMEX 100 Gold Futures contracts have been requested for physical delivery

Only 4 days in & it's already x2 of January interest

Physical gold in high demand

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-03 17:28

🇪🇺 The best countermeasure that EU can take is swapping US securities for Gold

Gold is inversely correlated with USD. Such a decision can be done today and it will:

1️⃣be a response to the US
2️⃣increase value of EUR
3️⃣minimize consumer impact

Anything else will hurt the economy

User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-03-21 12:45

Over 10 years the Russian Central Bank has increased gold holdings by x4.5

🇷🇺 Gold is now 35% of all international reserves held by Russia 🤯

🇺🇸 Comparatively, for USA the number is 5%

This is why Russia and Ruble have been so resilient to sanctions

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2023-12-11 23:23

If you only understood how cheap gold is now. To put it in perspective, its current FIAT price only reflects inflation prior to 2011 🤯

Any direct or indirect inflation following that time period has not yet been accounted for

You don't have to trust me. Trust the price action

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2023-03-12 19:28

🚨 $PAXG is trading at an $80 premium over gold

The market sentiment is clear: there is a run from #crypto into #gold

Selling your cryptocurrency for $PAXG is a good hedge against both, #Bitcoin and $USD

You can always buy it back for a profit after

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