so the most likely outcome is a 25bp/0.25% rate cut on September 17th 2025, and then at least one more cut in 2025

a cut larger than 25bp is highly unlikely, since the current CME's 30 Day Federal Funds Futures price strongly implies a 4.0%-4.25% target rate

this is 25bp/0.25% below the current target rate of 4.25%-4.5%