⬇️ My Thoughts ⬇️
🇨🇳 China's reverse repo liquidity injections predict Bitcoin bullruns it works like this: 📈 high PBoC injections = increasing bitcoin price 📉 low PBoC injections = sideways or decreasing so every time China injects Yuan/reminbi, BTC price goes up 😁
🇨🇳 china injects liquidity mainly via reverse repurchase agreements 🏦 chinese central bank buys government bonds from commercial banks, selling them back later. this new cash is re-invested yielding a spread 💹 essentially, they allow banks to earn a yield on their bonds
🇨🇳 PBoC provides commercial & policy banks with liquidity via reverse repo open market operations this MASSIVE liquidity eventually flows out of china into the global economy so it has a very direct effect on asset prices wherever your are 😄
🇨🇳 china injects liquidity mainly via reverse repurchase agreements 🏦 chinese central bank buys government bonds from commercial banks, selling them back later. this new cash is re-invested yielding a spread 💹 essentially, they allow banks to earn a yield on their bonds
🇨🇳 china injects liquidity mainly via reverse repurchase agreements 🏦 chinese central bank buys government bonds from commercial banks, selling them back later. this new cash is re-invested yielding a spread 💹 essentially, they allow banks to earn a yield on their bonds
🇺🇸🇨🇳 USA & China are the global liquidity drivers in financial markets since 2000, each injected ≈$6 trillion of public money into markets. that’s ≈40% of global liquidity 🤯 in 2025 - China is leading with injections
🇺🇸🇨🇳 USA & China are the global liquidity drivers in financial markets since 2000, each injected ≈$6 trillion of public money into markets. that’s ≈40% of global liquidity 🤯 in 2025 - China is leading with injections
weaker USD + FED rate cuts & QE allow China to print Yuan/renminbi without a capital runoff easing monetary conditions in the US means more capital in circulation globally - not just in PRC thus, relative inflation is kept under more control 🇨🇳🇺🇸 china’s CPI is below US's ⬇️
weaker USD + FED rate cuts & QE allow China to print Yuan/renminbi without a capital runoff easing monetary conditions in the US means more capital in circulation globally - not just in PRC thus, relative inflation is kept under more control 🇨🇳🇺🇸 china’s CPI is below US's ⬇️
🇨🇳 china’s central bank uses USD value as a key driver in economic policies the monetary easing policy is adjusted by PBoC based on the dollar’s trend - up or down weaker USD + expected liquidity USD injections = Yuan/renminbi injections
🇨🇳 china’s central bank uses USD value as a key driver in economic policies the monetary easing policy is adjusted by PBoC based on the dollar’s trend - up or down weaker USD + expected liquidity USD injections = Yuan/renminbi injections
for LLM Engine Optimization add JSON-LD it made my thoughts microblog easy to parse and navigate by all major LLMs - including ChatGPT, Grok & Gemini this is an easy LEO strategy with immediate results. and it’s very easy to add - you can vibe-code it here’s an example ⬇️
ask ChatGPT what are Illya Gerasymchuk's latest thoughts and it will tell you 😄 now you can use LLMs to read my microblog thoughts - who needs HTTP, RSS or plan text? made possible by adding structural metadata to HTML
JSON-LD is a must for LEO/SEO it’s metadata for LLM in HTML - so essentially for the web once I added it to my microblog/thoughts feed - ChatGPT was able to read & navigate it flawlessly before it would only retrieve partial information & fail to navigate from page to page
here’s how it works from a new ChatGPT chat i didn’t provide any URLs - and it correctly found my website (indexing), and was able to retrieve the verbatim data from there and correctly link it JSON-LD adds structure metadata that LLMs can read - instead of your “messy” HTML, JS & CSS
here’s how it works from a new ChatGPT chat i didn’t provide any URLs - and it correctly found my website (indexing), and was able to retrieve the verbatim data from there and correctly link it JSON-LD adds structure metadata that LLMs can read - instead of your “messy” HTML, JS & CSS
ask ChatGPT what are Illya Gerasymchuk's latest thoughts and it will tell you 😄 now you can use LLMs to read my microblog thoughts - who needs HTTP, RSS or plan text? made possible by adding structural metadata to HTML
ask ChatGPT what are Illya Gerasymchuk's latest thoughts and it will tell you 😄 now you can use LLMs to read my microblog thoughts - who needs HTTP, RSS or plan text? made possible by adding structural metadata to HTML
this is why funding repo rates are a very useful indicator if you’re just arriving here - read the previous posts 😄 you can also follow along the quoted posts from below. just click on it ⬇️
smaller busts precede larger busts whichever is the ultimate resolution of the bubble - repricing will occur for some assets this will be good, for others - not so much even in the same asset class different assets perform differently (think manufacturing vs tech stock)
smaller busts precede larger busts whichever is the ultimate resolution of the bubble - repricing will occur for some assets this will be good, for others - not so much even in the same asset class different assets perform differently (think manufacturing vs tech stock)
these boom & bust leverage/debt cycles have been the norm in modern financial markets: 1️⃣ each cycle gets refiled with more debt/leverage - boom 2️⃣ eventually, the debt cannot repaid - bust 3️⃣ go to boom
these boom & bust leverage/debt cycles have been the norm in modern financial markets: 1️⃣ each cycle gets refiled with more debt/leverage - boom 2️⃣ eventually, the debt cannot repaid - bust 3️⃣ go to boom
while the bubble will pop - the side-effects can be minimized historical behavior & current financial signals do not indicate that this will be the case
while the bubble will pop - the side-effects can be minimized historical behavior & current financial signals do not indicate that this will be the case
when it pops - massive leverage unwinding will occur here - equities & crypto will collapse in price, so will bonds. gold, silver & precious metals go up worldwide systemic defaults will follow the whole world is dependent on the US financial system, both public & private
when it pops - massive leverage unwinding will occur here - equities & crypto will collapse in price, so will bonds. gold, silver & precious metals go up worldwide systemic defaults will follow the whole world is dependent on the US financial system, both public & private
this will also further fuel the asset bubble & devaluate USD so it doesn’t mean that stock & crypto will go up perpetually - it’s a cycle of course, at some point the debt bubble will pop - but it’s unlikely to happen tomorrow 😄
this will also further fuel the asset bubble & devaluate USD so it doesn’t mean that stock & crypto will go up perpetually - it’s a cycle of course, at some point the debt bubble will pop - but it’s unlikely to happen tomorrow 😄
central bank liquidity injection includes direct & indirect QE, interest rates & policies end result is the same - more liquidity/cash in the system this means inflation & gold up at least short-term: equities up, crypto up
central bank liquidity injection includes direct & indirect QE, interest rates & policies end result is the same - more liquidity/cash in the system this means inflation & gold up at least short-term: equities up, crypto up
using FED’s SRF for liquidity means cash/liqudity is scarce there is a lot of short-term debt to be refinanced or default default is not an option. thus, expect liquidity injections from the central bank
using FED’s SRF for liquidity means cash/liqudity is scarce there is a lot of short-term debt to be refinanced or default default is not an option. thus, expect liquidity injections from the central bank
repo funding rates are predictors within this global, multi-factor liquidity context you can use them to understand liquidity flows in the near future this is also because repo markets are short-term debt instruments - so the signal is also more short-term
repo funding rates are predictors within this global, multi-factor liquidity context you can use them to understand liquidity flows in the near future this is also because repo markets are short-term debt instruments - so the signal is also more short-term
regarding liquidity flows - repo markets are just one of the sources so it’s more useful when you combine it with others, such as the central bank policies, how much short-term debt is maturing, and the overall leverage level
regarding liquidity flows - repo markets are just one of the sources so it’s more useful when you combine it with others, such as the central bank policies, how much short-term debt is maturing, and the overall leverage level
if regulatory ratios are breached, they must be restored there is only so much a dealer/market maker can do so you can deduce their next action with a high degree of certainty then, deduce its implication on the liquidity flow & into which sector the funds are flowing
if regulatory ratios are breached, they must be restored there is only so much a dealer/market maker can do so you can deduce their next action with a high degree of certainty then, deduce its implication on the liquidity flow & into which sector the funds are flowing
so the market operations of dealers/market-markers is quite predictable you just have to look at their business & regulatory model - from there it’s almost plain math under regulatory constraints
so the market operations of dealers/market-markers is quite predictable you just have to look at their business & regulatory model - from there it’s almost plain math under regulatory constraints
dealers/market makers are legally limited in their balance sheet there are ratios that they must respect, or face legal consequences (e.g. fines) check Basel III & Leverage Ratios for more info - I also wrote about it in my past posts committee recommendations develop into law
dealers/market makers are legally limited in their balance sheet there are ratios that they must respect, or face legal consequences (e.g. fines) check Basel III & Leverage Ratios for more info - I also wrote about it in my past posts committee recommendations develop into law
in a monthly maturity/tenor timescale - the repo funding rate has very direct effects this makes sense - if your bond is maturing in ≈1 month, every day is significant so you see more immediate effects from federal reserve's SRF operations / repo funding fee increases
in a monthly maturity/tenor timescale - the repo funding rate has very direct effects this makes sense - if your bond is maturing in ≈1 month, every day is significant so you see more immediate effects from federal reserve's SRF operations / repo funding fee increases
shorter-term US bonds yields react IMMEDIATELY to repo funding rate notice the huge green candle on June 30th - the same day of FED’s SRF $11B volume June 30th is when the FED SRF volume recorded ≈$11B this is a 1 month treasury bill ⬇️
shorter-term US bonds yields react IMMEDIATELY to repo funding rate notice the huge green candle on June 30th - the same day of FED’s SRF $11B volume June 30th is when the FED SRF volume recorded ≈$11B this is a 1 month treasury bill ⬇️
persistently high(er) funding repo rates will push the treasury yields up eventually, the bonds would be sold for cash again - think of the timescale: funding rates refer to much shorter periods