🇺🇸🇨🇳This makes no sense: 1️⃣ USA gets themselves into a net importer, 130% debt to GDP & higher refinancing costs 2️⃣ 🇺🇸 became so dependent on China, that 🇺🇸 economy can’t survive with the tariffs 3️⃣ Now, the (not so good) student is lecturing the teacher? Why would 🇨🇳 listen?

🇺🇸 2Y bond up 3% percent to a 4% yield 😳 10Y yield also up & approaching 4.5% At least USD index is back above 100 for now

⚡️You can now create GOLD from lead⚡️ 1g gold = two quintillion dollars ($2 × 10¹⁸) 1 gold ring contains x170 billion more gold that LHC produced over 4 years Oh, and that newly minted Au fragments into other particles almost immediately 😁

🇷🇺 Russia announced that they will cover their 2025 budget deficit not through the issuance of debt via government bonds, but via the National Reserve Fund - funded by natural resource surpluses 👉 Good news for the Ruble, of course 👉 Bond yields went down - 10Y is down ≈-3%

How does the Russian government get the oil & gas revenue? 👉 Heavy taxation 👈 So no matter if you’re public or private - you pay for per extracted unit of natural resource This income is directly tied to the budget & NWF - which is then debited or credited, base on target

🇷🇺 TIL Russia has a National Wealth Fund Excess oil & gas profits are credited to NWF NWF funds are used to finance government deficit, instead of relying on debt issuance of Ruble (government bonds). Inflation-free deficit financing 🇪🇺 We need this in the EU for Euro

Note: the actual raising of the flag happened on April 30th, but May 9th is the day of celebration of Red Army's WW II victory It’s celebrated today throughout slavic & ex-Soviet countries

⭐️ May 9th 1945: The Red Army, lead by Zhukov, raises the Soviet flag over Reichstag Nazi Germany has been defeated ≈73 million Soviets were killed or injured for the world’s freedom. Today, we celebrate their lives С Днём Победы! 🥳 🇷🇺🇺🇦🇧🇾🇺🇿🇰🇿🇬🇪🇦🇿🇱🇹🇲🇩🇱🇻🇰🇬🇹🇯🇦🇲🇹🇲🇪🇪

🇪🇺👩‍⚖️ EU Securitisation TL;DR Securitisation of subprime loans was a key factor in 2007-11 financial crisis EU Regulation 2017/2402 aims to address that by detailing how risk should be managed mathematically & how to distribute it among the parties in securitisation operations

WOW US 10 Year bond yields are up 2.24% today

Google + Zero Knowledge Proofs = ❤️🔐 ZKPs will allow you to prove your age to other apps via Google Wallet - e.g. a proof that you are >18 AFAIK you’ll upload your ID, Google BE verifies & signs it Integrate with @MinaProtocol schemes & Android goes on the 22KB blockchain 😳

⚠️It's important not to interpret the net notional futures positions simply as short - bearish, long - bullish There are several reasons why futures may be short & the sentiment is still bullish - e.g. basis trade, funding fee (for perpetual futures). Same for long/bearish

I've said this before, but I'm still amazed daily by how much LLMs have augmented the learning process A much more efficient way of information retrieval. Don't overthink the prompts - type or dictate your question, however unclear it is - neural networks will figure it out 🧠

Covered bonds are issued by a financial institution (e.g. bank) & include a claim on both issuer's assets & an additional collateral in the form of a pool of assets Investor has double recourse on issuer's default event: 1️⃣ Issuer's assets 2️⃣ Collateral pool

🚨🇺🇸 USD Index UPDATE - it’s down: As expected - USD index is back down - falling sharply below 98

🚨Gold UP - exactly as expected 😁 Today's uptrend continues

Catastrophe bonds (cat bonds) work by having an investor pool deposit 100% of collateral and earn ≈risk free rate + premium paid by the insured If the covered event occurs, investors lose a proportionate part of their principal, as the insured gets repaid from the collateral

Basis/carry yield in expiring futures ≈ funding rate in perpetual futures Both converge futures price with spot via an arbitrage incentive - long undervalued, short overvalued Profits are realized once at expiry for basis, and periodically for funding rate (e.g. every 8h)

⏰ Reminder to do a deep dive into funding rates, if you still haven't You can earn a yield on futures though delta neutral positions

Promissory notes are very simple legal documents, generally 1 page Unlike bonds, it has no coverants, no trustee & no collateral Financial markets are defined by legal documents with math formulas/values Promissory notes are very simple legal documents. It looks like this ⬇️

Commercial paper is unsecured short-term debt issued by large, creditworthy companies In practice, it’s a short-term promissory note - so something a company would use for short-term financing, perhaps for meeting working capital needs

🚨 ETH & BTC shorts update: Short positions on Bitcoin & Ethereum are gradually reducing Institutional net position on cryptocurrencies is still short, but only a half from the start of the year

I asked ChatGPT o3 what will happen to the economy of the US, if USD index goes down & Treasury bond yields go up It correctly pointed out that for a heavily indebted net importer - these are not good news However, the risk is far beyond than just stagflation ⬇️

CME publishes daily data on physical settlement on gold futures The problem is that it’s PDFs with numbers Some interesting alpha factors can be extracted from this 💡 Maybe making a website to visualize, interpret & combine that data would be useful 👀

Many boast about US’s higher GDP than EU without looking at the bigger picture US/EU balance: 🇺🇸 is a net importer from the 🇪🇺 World: 🇪🇺: Net exporter 🇺🇸: Net importer Debt to GDP: 🇪🇺: 81% 🇺🇸: 123% Exports as % of GDP: 🇪🇺: 52% 🇺🇸 : 11% 👉 You must always contextualize GDP 👈