⬇️ My Thoughts ⬇️
Falling US Dollar index played out exactly as expected 2 months later and it’s down another full point
🇺🇸 USD index bearish/in a downtrend 5Y timeframe weekly chart shows lower highs & lows Ever since Trump took office, every $DXY weekly candle has been red Greatest USD economy in history 🫠
Interestingly, the yields on US bonds are up across the yield curve - for both, short & long-term maturities The market - understandably - associated gold, rather than government debt with safety
🤯 Gold may just go straight to $3500 in the next few hours Look at this 15-minute timeframe momentum ⬇️
🚀📈 NEW Gold ATH is in - $3440 per oz I’ve been warning about this for a while You had a little over a month since my original post to load up
Now that gold is down & below $3.3K, it’s a good time to say this: 🎉 New ATH coming very soon 🎉 In the time of political, civil & economic ambiguity - there is only one recourse - Au Lower interest rates & QE are coming soon - FIAT down, gold up 💾 Save this & check back
I hope you used the earlier advice to prepare for a new gold ATH The turn around the corner has begun
🚀 Are you ready? New all time high for gold is just around the corner And there will already be a strong resistance in the ≈$3300 area, due to the recent accumulation Low(er) interest rates + high(er) CPI will then push it up even further
As expected - 3 months was all that crude oil needed to spike back up Other commodities like gold, silver & others are up since as well
While Gold & Oil are up, Ethereum and Bitcoin are down As expected. A practical reminder that BTC, ETH & altcoins are NOT reserve assets I am big believer in crypto & DeFi - but it’s important to remain rational, even if you are entertained
🚀 Are you ready? New all time high for gold is just around the corner And there will already be a strong resistance in the ≈$3300 area, due to the recent accumulation Low(er) interest rates + high(er) CPI will then push it up even further
Risk-free rate returns with quant trading strategies may be fairly easy to achieve even with parameter-optimized Bollinger Bands Not surprising, but unless the return can beat the mid/long-term bond yields - it’s also not very useful 😄 Unless… leverage, of course
The Ruble thesis remains valid Up ≈13% on the USD in the past quarter
🚨 Ruble is up 30% on USD 2025 YTD 82-68 is a strong support - including pre-Ukraine war liquidity A small pullback is very likely to happen, but in the medium-long term it’s heading towards the 68 Once sanctions are dropped by US & EU - RUB will skyrocket
🤯👉 Quant trading secrets they don’t want you to know On the bright side - the Sharpe Ratio may soon underflow, thus turning it very positive Still counts, right? 😂
USD/EUR price action is developing exactly as described 😄 Once price went below the pink trend support line it fell through to 0.8785 exactly, before resuming a steeper downtrend after a failed breakout
If USD/EUR falls below the pink trend line, it's a fall to ≈0.8785 From here the downtrend towards ≈0.8689 (monthly level) is setup to be resumed & likely under a tighter channel (up: pink, bottom: green) - so a faster downfall of USD against EUR Stay tuned 📻
🚀 .txt mirror for my X tweets/posts: https://illya.sh/thoughts/thoughts.txt TL;DR: 👉 plaintext version of my thoughts/tweets 👉 accessible on every device - even smart watch & IoT 👉 LLM-friendly format 👉 UTF-8 encoded text with emojis UI looks like this:
If USD/EUR falls below the pink trend line, it's a fall to ≈0.8785 From here the downtrend towards ≈0.8689 (monthly level) is setup to be resumed & likely under a tighter channel (up: pink, bottom: green) - so a faster downfall of USD against EUR Stay tuned 📻
🇺🇸 Cancelled tariffs means refunds, which means a larger budget deficit Rising bond yields means that deficit is (even) more expensive to refinance The FED will soon need inject liquidity via QE + lower interest rates
90% of all newly issued debt is for refinancing of existing debt, not new debt/financing Thus, new debt is extremely inflationary & asset bubble-nurturing The financial system is extremely leveraged at a high risk We need to fix this. DeFi is the tool
Michael Saylor doesn't need to expose MSRT's wallets for a proof of reserves All you need is Zero Knowledge Proof attesting that MicroStrategy has access to private key(s) holding a total of X BTC With ZKPs - no Bitcoin addresses are exposed ✨
Sustained high bond yields combined with QE will lead to an inflation of equity and risk asset prices Here's how 👇 1️⃣ High yields = high required base return 2️⃣ Inflow of QE funds into equities & crypto 3️⃣ Equities & cryptocurrency prices increase Further fuel for the bubble
⚡️ US Bond yields directly affect USD liquidity Here's how 👇 1️⃣ Repo + reverse repo market provides $5 trillion of liquidity 2️⃣ US bonds represent ≈70% of collateral 3️⃣ Lower bond prices means smaller loans, leading to a liquidity squeeze
🏦 Quantitative Easing (QE) by a Central Bank (CB) increase both - its assets & liabilities 👇 QE = CB buys securities from commercial banks 👆 This involves: 1️⃣ Transfer of securities to CB (asset UP) 2️⃣ Credit the bank's reserve account (liability UP)
👉 M2 Supply ≠ Liquidity 👈 M2 is only a part of the total liquidity 🔎 Here's an example: Repurchase agreements market adds ≈$17T in the form of security-backed short-term credit, thus increasing available currency M2 does not account for the repo market
⚡️ Crypto market cap down 2.6% today Explains the overall pullback across prices. Some went into gold & bonds (yields are down today) Could head a little lower - but definitely temporary. Expect inflows/increase soon
