⬇️ My Thoughts ⬇️
not only US treasuries are accepted as collateral for SRF dealers/market makers can use: 1️⃣ US. Treasuries 2️⃣ agency debt 3️⃣ agency mortgage-backed securities agency debt instruments aren’t issued by US Treasury, but by government sponsored enterprises (GSE) & federal agencies
current SRF minimum bid rate is 4.5% that’s the annualized rate that the federal reserve sets requires dor overnight repo loans via Standing Repo Facility dealers/market makers can borrow cash against US treasuries for 1 day at ≈4.5% annualized directly from the FED
current SRF minimum bid rate is 4.5% that’s the annualized rate that the federal reserve sets requires dor overnight repo loans via Standing Repo Facility dealers/market makers can borrow cash against US treasuries for 1 day at ≈4.5% annualized directly from the FED
in practice, FED’s SRF is used when there is a scarcity of liquidity/cash the market has US bonds & needs cash, so lenders increase rates SRF sets a daily rate. if that rate is smaller than in the smaller repo market - the dealers instead borrow USD directly from the FED
in practice, FED’s SRF is used when there is a scarcity of liquidity/cash the market has US bonds & needs cash, so lenders increase rates SRF sets a daily rate. if that rate is smaller than in the smaller repo market - the dealers instead borrow USD directly from the FED
with SRF the FED sets an upper limit on repo market rates most of the collateral is US Treasury bonds this exerts downward pressure on bond yields - by preventing sell-offs
with SRF the FED sets an upper limit on repo market rates most of the collateral is US Treasury bonds this exerts downward pressure on bond yields - by preventing sell-offs
SRF provides daily $500B liquidity limit for overnight repo operations a rate is published daily & dealers lend borrow against US bonds dealers/market makers use SRF when the rate in the open repo market gets too high SRF = Standing Repo Facility
SRF provides daily $500B liquidity limit for overnight repo operations a rate is published daily & dealers lend borrow against US bonds dealers/market makers use SRF when the rate in the open repo market gets too high SRF = Standing Repo Facility
🚨FED just injected $11B of liquidity 👉 TL;DR: interest rate cuts & QE incoming $11B is insignificant - but it’s an early sign: there is a lack of liquidity/cash if undressed, will lead to systemic defaults. existing debt needs to be refinanced the fix/what’s next? see TL;DR
🚨FED just injected $11B of liquidity 👉 TL;DR: interest rate cuts & QE incoming $11B is insignificant - but it’s an early sign: there is a lack of liquidity/cash if undressed, will lead to systemic defaults. existing debt needs to be refinanced the fix/what’s next? see TL;DR
btw I’m not saying Ethereum won’t reach 1 million USD per ETH, but rather pointing out that comparing Ethereum to the bond market and oil is a stretch it’s also more accurate to account for the whole crypto cap in this context
$29,000 per lb of orange juice. You’re early. 🍊😄
all of this very bullish for gold & other commodities it’s not just gold & silver - you may have seen the recent appreciation of platinum those commodities have still have price to catch up on & that has been signaled by their volatility gold up 40% on the year isn’t normal
so today it may not be wise to assume that the FED will hike interest rates into double digits to lower the CPI/inflation rather - the interest rates are headed down, bc of challenge in refinancing debt that’s what I meant by focusing on historical patterns from this century
so today it may not be wise to assume that the FED will hike interest rates into double digits to lower the CPI/inflation rather - the interest rates are headed down, bc of challenge in refinancing debt that’s what I meant by focusing on historical patterns from this century
ex: in the 1980's US fought high inflation by raising interest rates towards ≈20% if the FED did that today - the global financial markets, alongside the US would be destroyed. there wouldn’t be enough liquidity to refinance the debt
ex: in the 1980's US fought high inflation by raising interest rates towards ≈20% if the FED did that today - the global financial markets, alongside the US would be destroyed. there wouldn’t be enough liquidity to refinance the debt
using historical behavior can be a great alpha - but you should probably focus on the patterns from this century perpetually low ≈0% interest rates have been a norm only post ≈2009 (but the bubble started before) so you want to look at the behavior in that environment
using historical behavior can be a great alpha - but you should probably focus on the patterns from this century perpetually low ≈0% interest rates have been a norm only post ≈2009 (but the bubble started before) so you want to look at the behavior in that environment
this is the general model, and think of these events as adding pressure towards the described outcome, rather than an axiom there are other events than can steer the pressure towards a different outcome, and the final outcome is a combination of all 😄
this is the general model, and think of these events as adding pressure towards the described outcome, rather than an axiom there are other events than can steer the pressure towards a different outcome, and the final outcome is a combination of all 😄
this new liquidity will reach financial markets first, before reaching the "real economy" equity, cryptocurrencies all go up in prices. bubble further fueled. you know what (eventually) happens to all bubbles Gold & Co. is a great hedge
this new liquidity will reach financial markets first, before reaching the "real economy" equity, cryptocurrencies all go up in prices. bubble further fueled. you know what (eventually) happens to all bubbles Gold & Co. is a great hedge
once FED lowers interest rates, it’s likely to put downward pressure on yields - assuming term premia doesn’t increase by more in the end, the yields will be higher than in the last 20 years, for the same FED funds rate QE/liquidity injections will further devalue USD
once FED lowers interest rates, it’s likely to put downward pressure on yields - assuming term premia doesn’t increase by more in the end, the yields will be higher than in the last 20 years, for the same FED funds rate QE/liquidity injections will further devalue USD
liquidity abundance leads to the narrowing of spread between riskier and safe assets (mostly government bonds) safe assets fall in price, with their yields increasing towards the riskier ones US bond yields are high under tighter monetary conditions - liquidity is pro cyclical
liquidity abundance leads to the narrowing of spread between riskier and safe assets (mostly government bonds) safe assets fall in price, with their yields increasing towards the riskier ones US bond yields are high under tighter monetary conditions - liquidity is pro cyclical
the higher use of lower quality collateral has pro-cyclical effects if the price of collateral falls during economic downturn - you’ll get a lot of margin calls & insolvencies. this will further put pressure on short-term funding mechanisms, which already lack HQ collateral
the 14 year old dormant bitcoin wallet transactions are likely OTC operations if you want to buy/sell >$1B worth of bitcoin, you’re not going to do it through coinbase 😄 i've encountered numerous alternative explanations - some very creative 🪒 remember: occam’s razor
the higher use of lower quality collateral has pro-cyclical effects if the price of collateral falls during economic downturn - you’ll get a lot of margin calls & insolvencies. this will further put pressure on short-term funding mechanisms, which already lack HQ collateral
US Treasuries are by far the most popular collateral type in secured short-term funding markets (e.g. the repo market) outstanding volume of these markets is larger than M2 notice the increase in usage of less safe assets as a collateral not enough UST for its demand ⬇️
US Treasuries are by far the most popular collateral type in secured short-term funding markets (e.g. the repo market) outstanding volume of these markets is larger than M2 notice the increase in usage of less safe assets as a collateral not enough UST for its demand ⬇️
📡 quoted thoughts are neatly rendered visually it's like the quote block that you find in e-mail 🏞️ quoted post images are also rendered and you can click on the hyperlink which will take you directly to the quoted thought RSS is indeed a useful standard 😄
📡🌇 images are also included in the RSS feed so if a thought/post has an attached image - it will also be displayed in the RSS entry the image is included in 2 different ways - so should be compatible with your favorite RSS reader here’s how it looks like ⬇️
📡🌇 images are also included in the RSS feed so if a thought/post has an attached image - it will also be displayed in the RSS entry the image is included in 2 different ways - so should be compatible with your favorite RSS reader here’s how it looks like ⬇️
📡 so if you open the though's feed in an RSS reader you can see all the posts without a need for centralized services. the RSS can be served via various mediums everything is static so very SEO/LLM friendly + as a bonus you’ll probably have integrated search as well 😄
📡 so if you open the though's feed in an RSS reader you can see all the posts without a need for centralized services. the RSS can be served via various mediums everything is static so very SEO/LLM friendly + as a bonus you’ll probably have integrated search as well 😄
🚀📡 added an RSS feed to my thoughts so now you can follow the RSS feed, instead of reading the content from X or HTML webpage. any RSS reader should work implemented statically generated RSS feed of all the content posted under the microblogging platform
🚀📡 added an RSS feed to my thoughts so now you can follow the RSS feed, instead of reading the content from X or HTML webpage. any RSS reader should work implemented statically generated RSS feed of all the content posted under the microblogging platform
gold did exactly this during the 2008 GFC its share in collateral usage in global repo markets increased and in 2025 we’re seeing the same trend, with gold share in repo market collateral increasing
as more markets develop over gold - so will its usage as collateral in short-term/repo credit markets it will likely become a more frequent choice for collateral/hedge during the multipolar transition. specially if bond yields continue to exhibit increased volatility
as more markets develop over gold - so will its usage as collateral in short-term/repo credit markets it will likely become a more frequent choice for collateral/hedge during the multipolar transition. specially if bond yields continue to exhibit increased volatility
(re)monetization of gold is already in progress central banks have been consistently buying gold for many years this is especially true for Russia & China