⬇️ My Thoughts ⬇️
a reminder that Russia doesn't trade with USA anymore 🇺🇸🤝🇷🇺
so it's not clear what 100% or 9999% tariffs on Russia will achieve
Russia's been offloading US securities for gold since 2018
Russia's exports to the US are less than 1% of the total
🇷🇺 Russia is immune to US tariffs
Russia's international reserves are as follows:
- 0.007% US Treasury bonds
- 35% Gold
Russia exports <1% to the US. Russia is a net exporter
This makes them protected from US sovereign risk (USD devaluation) & trade risk
not all bonds are the same 🇺🇸🇯🇵🇪🇺🇷🇺
while US, EU & Japan yields are soaring 📈
Russian bond yields are falling 📉
🇷🇺 10Y bond yield down 8% since March
just like i wrote more than 3 months ago
check my posts for a detailed expiation & what's coming next
👇
Ruble is a gold success story ✨
Sanctions, tariffs, raising M2 - it doesn't care
Central Bank Of Russia sold off their US bonds & loaded up on gold
⬇️ US bond prices are down
⬆️ Gold is up
⬆️ Ruble is up against USD
Expect this playbook to be repeated by others
🛢️🤭 crude oil almost back to "the market is never wrong" price
i warned about the pullback being temporary a month ago
perhaps surprising for some - but very expected if you analyze the fundamentals
the scale of the pullback was your sign number 1
more upside to come 👀
🛢️ crude oil price is heading back up - just like I wrote earlier
significant geopolitical events introduce volatility - but my thesis on increasing oil, gold & other precious metals + commodities has little to do with that
👉 it's about global liquidity flows & bond markets
🚀 silver price reaching 14 year ATHs
🍷 adding this to list of my predictions that aged like fine wine
the upside price action won't stop here. i explained the reasons for it and what comes next in my previous posts
stay tuned 📻
Silver back to August 2020 price
After a tariffs-induced pullback of 15% today, silver is now at start of COVID prices
So much inflation that still isn't priced in
It will recover. And a lot!
👀
🚀 you can already feel a new ATH for gold
the loading screen is at 96%
[🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩⬛] 96%
and it won't stop there
price action is showing immaculate breakout vibes 🤩⬇️
🛢️ crude oil price is heading back up - just like I wrote earlier
significant geopolitical events introduce volatility - but my thesis on increasing oil, gold & other precious metals + commodities has little to do with that
👉 it's about global liquidity flows & bond markets
'The market is never wrong'
A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything & prices accordingly - even before the official news
Okay.
Now wait & watch crude oil & gold raise up even more in price very soon
This isn't a joke
🚀 crypto inflows materialized as expected
but wait - it's not over yet
more upside to come 👀📈
⚡️ Crypto market cap down 2.6% today
Explains the overall pullback across prices. Some went into gold & bonds (yields are down today)
Could head a little lower - but definitely temporary. Expect inflows/increase soon
🚀 you can already feel a new ATH for gold
the loading screen is at 96%
[🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩⬛] 96%
and it won't stop there
price action is showing immaculate breakout vibes 🤩⬇️
gold's behavior during the current 'bullrun' has been consistently to flip previous week's resistance to new support
in the chart - the green vertical lines are weekly levels
gold's current price action suggests it's flipping another resistance for support
Road to $3500 🚀
Bitcoin all time high in the EU is delayed ⏱️
but that's actually a good sign for 🇪🇺😄
🇩🇪😱 Germany lost $2.75 billion on Bitcoin
ok, let's look at the numbers:
1️⃣ German's yearly public budget spending is ≈$2 trillion
2️⃣ $2.75 billion is 0.138% of $2 trillion
3️⃣ okay then 🤷♀️
*this is also assuming they didn't invest that money into something productive
🇨🇳 China's reverse repo liquidity injections predict Bitcoin bullruns
it works like this:
📈 high PBoC injections = increasing bitcoin price
📉 low PBoC injections = sideways or decreasing
so every time China injects Yuan/reminbi, BTC price goes up 😁
🇨🇳 china injects liquidity mainly via reverse repurchase agreements
🏦 chinese central bank buys government bonds from commercial banks, selling them back later. this new cash is re-invested yielding a spread
💹 essentially, they allow banks to earn a yield on their bonds
🇨🇳 PBoC provides commercial & policy banks with liquidity via reverse repo open market operations
this MASSIVE liquidity eventually flows out of china into the global economy
so it has a very direct effect on asset prices wherever your are 😄
🇨🇳 china injects liquidity mainly via reverse repurchase agreements
🏦 chinese central bank buys government bonds from commercial banks, selling them back later. this new cash is re-invested yielding a spread
💹 essentially, they allow banks to earn a yield on their bonds
🇨🇳 china injects liquidity mainly via reverse repurchase agreements
🏦 chinese central bank buys government bonds from commercial banks, selling them back later. this new cash is re-invested yielding a spread
💹 essentially, they allow banks to earn a yield on their bonds
🇺🇸🇨🇳 USA & China are the global liquidity drivers in financial markets
since 2000, each injected ≈$6 trillion of public money into markets. that's ≈40% of global liquidity 🤯
in 2025 - China is leading with injections
🇺🇸🇨🇳 USA & China are the global liquidity drivers in financial markets
since 2000, each injected ≈$6 trillion of public money into markets. that's ≈40% of global liquidity 🤯
in 2025 - China is leading with injections
weaker USD + FED rate cuts & QE allow China to print Yuan/renminbi without a capital runoff
easing monetary conditions in the US means more capital in circulation globally - not just in PRC
thus, relative inflation is kept under more control
🇨🇳🇺🇸 china's CPI is below US's ⬇️
weaker USD + FED rate cuts & QE allow China to print Yuan/renminbi without a capital runoff
easing monetary conditions in the US means more capital in circulation globally - not just in PRC
thus, relative inflation is kept under more control
🇨🇳🇺🇸 china's CPI is below US's ⬇️
🇨🇳 china's central bank uses USD value as a key driver in economic policies
the monetary easing policy is adjusted by PBoC based on the dollar's trend - up or down
weaker USD + expected liquidity USD injections = Yuan/renminbi injections
🇨🇳 china's central bank uses USD value as a key driver in economic policies
the monetary easing policy is adjusted by PBoC based on the dollar's trend - up or down
weaker USD + expected liquidity USD injections = Yuan/renminbi injections
for LLM Engine Optimization add JSON-LD
it made my thoughts microblog easy to parse and navigate by all major LLMs - including ChatGPT, Grok & Gemini
this is an easy LEO strategy with immediate results. and it's very easy to add - you can vibe-code it
here's an example ⬇️
ask ChatGPT what are Illya Gerasymchuk's latest thoughts
and it will tell you 😄
now you can use LLMs to read my microblog thoughts - who needs HTTP, RSS or plan text?
made possible by adding structural metadata to HTML
JSON-LD is a must for LEO/SEO
it's metadata for LLM in HTML - so essentially for the web
once I added it to my microblog/thoughts feed - ChatGPT was able to read & navigate it flawlessly
before it would only retrieve partial information & fail to navigate from page to page
here's how it works from a new ChatGPT chat
i didn't provide any URLs - and it correctly found my website (indexing), and was able to retrieve the verbatim data from there and correctly link it
JSON-LD adds structure metadata that LLMs can read - instead of your 'messy' HTML, JS & CSS
here's how it works from a new ChatGPT chat
i didn't provide any URLs - and it correctly found my website (indexing), and was able to retrieve the verbatim data from there and correctly link it
JSON-LD adds structure metadata that LLMs can read - instead of your 'messy' HTML, JS & CSS
ask ChatGPT what are Illya Gerasymchuk's latest thoughts
and it will tell you 😄
now you can use LLMs to read my microblog thoughts - who needs HTTP, RSS or plan text?
made possible by adding structural metadata to HTML
ask ChatGPT what are Illya Gerasymchuk's latest thoughts
and it will tell you 😄
now you can use LLMs to read my microblog thoughts - who needs HTTP, RSS or plan text?
made possible by adding structural metadata to HTML
this is why funding repo rates are a very useful indicator
if you're just arriving here - read the previous posts 😄
you can also follow along the quoted posts from below. just click on it ⬇️
smaller busts precede larger busts
whichever is the ultimate resolution of the bubble - repricing will occur
for some assets this will be good, for others - not so much
even in the same asset class different assets perform differently (think manufacturing vs tech stock)
smaller busts precede larger busts
whichever is the ultimate resolution of the bubble - repricing will occur
for some assets this will be good, for others - not so much
even in the same asset class different assets perform differently (think manufacturing vs tech stock)
these boom & bust leverage/debt cycles have been the norm in modern financial markets:
1️⃣ each cycle gets refiled with more debt/leverage - boom
2️⃣ eventually, the debt cannot repaid - bust
3️⃣ go to boom
these boom & bust leverage/debt cycles have been the norm in modern financial markets:
1️⃣ each cycle gets refiled with more debt/leverage - boom
2️⃣ eventually, the debt cannot repaid - bust
3️⃣ go to boom
while the bubble will pop - the side-effects can be minimized
historical behavior & current financial signals do not indicate that this will be the case
while the bubble will pop - the side-effects can be minimized
historical behavior & current financial signals do not indicate that this will be the case
when it pops - massive leverage unwinding will occur
here - equities & crypto will collapse in price, so will bonds. gold, silver & precious metals go up
worldwide systemic defaults will follow
the whole world is dependent on the US financial system, both public & private
when it pops - massive leverage unwinding will occur
here - equities & crypto will collapse in price, so will bonds. gold, silver & precious metals go up
worldwide systemic defaults will follow
the whole world is dependent on the US financial system, both public & private
this will also further fuel the asset bubble & devaluate USD
so it doesn't mean that stock & crypto will go up perpetually - it's a cycle
of course, at some point the debt bubble will pop - but it's unlikely to happen tomorrow 😄