Hedge Funds & High-Risk Loans Leveraged loans are loans issued to high debt/risk entities - akin to subprime loans Tariffs will hurt solvency. Only way out is FED lowering interest rates, so the debt can be refinanced cheaper Otherwise the house of cards falls
Financial Stress Index (FSI) UPDATE as expected, the risk is increasing Sustained volatility will drive the rest up
PHYSICAL GOLD RUSH It’s not just Central Banks anymore In the first 4 days of April 2025, over 52K COMEX 100 Gold Futures contracts have been requested for physical delivery Only 4 days in & it’s already x2 of January interest Physical gold in high demand
Silver Physcial Delivery Demand HIGH CME's COMEX & NYMEX Metal Delivery Notices show a MASSIVE demand for physical silver 16.1K futures contract for delivery/physical settlement, up x3 from a year ago A.K.A. tariffs effect on silver Investors are HOARDING silver
Switzerland 2 year bond yield went negative Swiss Frank appreciates against major currencies like #EUR & #USD, so investors accept lower (sometimes even negative!) yields Massive demand for #CHF
Russian Ruble vs Euro Past 6 months #RUB up against #EUR by 13% Ruble is up 34% on Euro since January 2025 (YTD)
Silver back to August 2020 price After a tariffs-induced pullback of 15% today, silver is now at start of COVID prices So much inflation that still isn’t priced in It will recover. And a lot!
🤖 I asked Grok 3 why silver is down today DeepSearch said that this is likely due to a stronger USD But #DXY is also down 😂
If you think 🇺🇸USD M2 is bad, look at 🇷🇺Russia's In 3 years, Ruble DOUBLED in supply. Up by a 100% How come despite this, Ruble maintained its value in FOREX? The answer is GOLD, more specifically its expansion in the balance sheet of Central Bank of Russia It works 🤷♀️
🚨🇺🇸USD M2 Money Supply ⬆️ 790 days to increase M2 by $6.3T ⬇️ 550 days to decrease M2 by $1.1T ⬆️ 500 days to increase M2 by $1.1T ⏯️ QE never stopped, it merely paused When inflation is blamed on tariffs, keep this in mind
🚨🇺🇸 USD M2 Money Supply is almost back at pre-interest rate increase levels That QT didn’t last after all 🤷♀️
🚨 Financial Stress Index Tariffs Update Trump/US tariffs so far: ⬇️ Equity valuation down ⬆️ Volatility up ⬆️ Safe assets up ⬆️ Credit spread up 📈 A perfect setup for the increase of OFR's Financial Stress Index Let’s see - it’s updated with a 2 day delay
🇪🇺 The best countermeasure that EU can take is swapping US securities for Gold Gold is inversely correlated with USD. Such a decision can be done today and it will: 1️⃣be a response to the US 2️⃣increase value of EUR 3️⃣minimize consumer impact Anything else will hurt the economy
🤯 USD/EUR down 3 cents overnight 🇺🇸 An immediate response to Trump/USA import tariffs This is Bitcoin-level volatility in FOREX Volatility is a measure of risk. What does this mean for the US Dollar?
🚨 Bitcoin Reacts To US Tariffs: As expected, a massive BTC sell-off post Trump's tariffs announcement The price peaked during the speech, and then dumped down more than 6% so far + US dollar index is down A move away from riskier assets & USD into Gold & foreign currencies https://
🚨 🇷🇺🇨🇳🇪🇺🇯🇵 reacting to US tariffs The initial FOREX response to tariffs is a net outflow from #USD US dollar fell against major currencies. The Euro fell against both the Chinese Yuan/renminbi & the Russian Ruble Interesting, but expected having #RUB & #Yuan gain from this https://
🔴 $BTC, $DXY & $XAU during Trump's tariffs speech Interesting to observe the negative correlation between Bitcoin & US Dollar Index Gold wasn’t clearly correlated with either. This makes sense - the tariffs lead to uncertainty regarding the reserve currency & central bank… https://t.co
🚨 JUST IN: $87K Bitcoin This is just a pre-tariffs announcements pump that will sell off once Trump speaks in a few hours, right? 😁
🚨Trump’s Tariffs Update - 🇨🇳, 🇯🇵, 🇰🇷 Not only tariffs are tanking the US economy, but their strongest partners are looking elsewhere Unsurprisingly, Asia will find other buyers for their products - they have the upper hand, not 🇺🇸 or 🇪🇺 - a result of perpetual import deficits…
🚨Update on Ethereum shorts: Latest data shows that institutional investors reduced their short exposure by ≈60% Not necessarily bullish - a lot of it is taking profits from the record net short positions + $1900 is a key weekly support level for #ETH, so a rebound is normal