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Illya Gerasymchuk
Entrepreneur / Engineer

⬇️ My Thoughts ⬇️

User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-05 17:05

Hedge Funds & High-Risk Loans Leveraged loans are loans issued to high debt/risk entities - akin to subprime loans Tariffs will hurt solvency. Only way out is FED lowering interest rates, so the debt can be refinanced cheaper Otherwise the house of cards falls

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-05 15:23

Financial Stress Index (FSI) UPDATE as expected, the risk is increasing Sustained volatility will drive the rest up

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-05 14:33

PHYSICAL GOLD RUSH It’s not just Central Banks anymore In the first 4 days of April 2025, over 52K COMEX 100 Gold Futures contracts have been requested for physical delivery Only 4 days in & it’s already x2 of January interest Physical gold in high demand

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-05 13:43

Source:

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-05 13:43

Silver Physcial Delivery Demand HIGH CME's COMEX & NYMEX Metal Delivery Notices show a MASSIVE demand for physical silver 16.1K futures contract for delivery/physical settlement, up x3 from a year ago A.K.A. tariffs effect on silver Investors are HOARDING silver

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-05 00:22

Switzerland 2 year bond yield went negative Swiss Frank appreciates against major currencies like #EUR & #USD, so investors accept lower (sometimes even negative!) yields Massive demand for #CHF

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-04 21:31

Russian Ruble vs Euro Past 6 months #RUB up against #EUR by 13% Ruble is up 34% on Euro since January 2025 (YTD)

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-04 20:54

Silver back to August 2020 price After a tariffs-induced pullback of 15% today, silver is now at start of COVID prices So much inflation that still isn’t priced in It will recover. And a lot!

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-04 20:19

🤖 I asked Grok 3 why silver is down today DeepSearch said that this is likely due to a stronger USD But #DXY is also down 😂

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-04 20:07

Who’s selling silver? 😭 📉 CDFs are down 15% on the day 🤯 I guess it’s a tariffs freebie 🤷‍♀️

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-04 11:48

🇨🇳China: announces tariffs on 5% of US exports Bitcoin 🫠:

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-04 11:35

If you think 🇺🇸USD M2 is bad, look at 🇷🇺Russia's In 3 years, Ruble DOUBLED in supply. Up by a 100% How come despite this, Ruble maintained its value in FOREX? The answer is GOLD, more specifically its expansion in the balance sheet of Central Bank of Russia It works 🤷‍♀️

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-04 11:19

🚨🇺🇸USD M2 Money Supply ⬆️ 790 days to increase M2 by $6.3T ⬇️ 550 days to decrease M2 by $1.1T ⬆️ 500 days to increase M2 by $1.1T ⏯️ QE never stopped, it merely paused When inflation is blamed on tariffs, keep this in mind

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-04 11:05

🚨🇺🇸 USD M2 Money Supply is almost back at pre-interest rate increase levels That QT didn’t last after all 🤷‍♀️

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-03 19:08

Remember: FIAT currencies come & go ✨ Only Gold remains ✨ http

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-03 18:33

🚨 Financial Stress Index Tariffs Update Trump/US tariffs so far: ⬇️ Equity valuation down ⬆️ Volatility up ⬆️ Safe assets up ⬆️ Credit spread up 📈 A perfect setup for the increase of OFR's Financial Stress Index Let’s see - it’s updated with a 2 day delay

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-03 17:28

🇪🇺 The best countermeasure that EU can take is swapping US securities for Gold Gold is inversely correlated with USD. Such a decision can be done today and it will: 1️⃣be a response to the US 2️⃣increase value of EUR 3️⃣minimize consumer impact Anything else will hurt the economy

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-03 13:31

🤯 USD/EUR down 3 cents overnight 🇺🇸 An immediate response to Trump/USA import tariffs This is Bitcoin-level volatility in FOREX Volatility is a measure of risk. What does this mean for the US Dollar?

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-02 23:49

🚨 Bitcoin Reacts To US Tariffs: As expected, a massive BTC sell-off post Trump's tariffs announcement The price peaked during the speech, and then dumped down more than 6% so far + US dollar index is down A move away from riskier assets & USD into Gold & foreign currencies https://

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-02 23:04

🚨 🇷🇺🇨🇳🇪🇺🇯🇵 reacting to US tariffs The initial FOREX response to tariffs is a net outflow from #USD US dollar fell against major currencies. The Euro fell against both the Chinese Yuan/renminbi & the Russian Ruble Interesting, but expected having #RUB & #Yuan gain from this https://

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-02 21:56

🔴 $BTC, $DXY & $XAU during Trump's tariffs speech Interesting to observe the negative correlation between Bitcoin & US Dollar Index Gold wasn’t clearly correlated with either. This makes sense - the tariffs lead to uncertainty regarding the reserve currency & central bank… https://t.co

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-02 18:00

🚨 JUST IN: $87K Bitcoin This is just a pre-tariffs announcements pump that will sell off once Trump speaks in a few hours, right? 😁

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-03-31 15:34

🚨Trump’s Tariffs Update - 🇨🇳, 🇯🇵, 🇰🇷 Not only tariffs are tanking the US economy, but their strongest partners are looking elsewhere Unsurprisingly, Asia will find other buyers for their products - they have the upper hand, not 🇺🇸 or 🇪🇺 - a result of perpetual import deficits…

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-03-29 00:42

🚨Update on Ethereum shorts: Latest data shows that institutional investors reduced their short exposure by ≈60% Not necessarily bullish - a lot of it is taking profits from the record net short positions + $1900 is a key weekly support level for #ETH, so a rebound is normal

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-03-27 16:18

📉 S&P 500, Motor Industry, NASDAQ, Bitcoin - all down 🥇Meanwhile gold hitting ATHs: http

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