🇷🇺 Russia is immune to US tariffs Russia's foreign reserves are as follows: - 0.007% US Treasury bonds - 35% Gold Russia exports <1% to the US. Russia is a net exporter This makes them protected from US sovereign risk (USD devaluation) & trade risk

🇪🇺🇺🇸US tariffs present a unique opportunity for EU's capital markets Billions of $ are flowing out of US markets. Let that liquidity be parked in the EU. All that’s needed is inviting conditions It can start with a small, less-regulated market subsection to allow seamless foreign funds flow

Of course, this also gives China leverage - if The People Bank's of China (China's Central Bank) dumps their US Securities in the market, it will skyrocket bond yields, by reducing their prices Who will lend to the US then, and at what premium? And at 125% debt to GDP 😬

China is the 2nd largest holder of US Treasury bonds - a staggering 23% of their foreign exchange reserves This makes China extremely exposed to US systemic risk. Which is why tariffs will hit them double hard - at exports and at renminbi/Yuan due to falling #DXY Not saying they can’t sustain it though

For net BTC/ETH futures positions by hedge funds, you can check:

Sure, if you: Put tariffs Lower interest rates Remove tariffs the maket will skyrocket But that also means increased: Asset bubble Inflation Public debt/deficit Tariff income won’t offset it Monitor the hedge fund's shorts on risky assets, and when the

One of the core ideas behind the tariffs is to solve US's the trade deficit by incentivizing other countries to import from the US - I’m deriving this from the “tariff” formula So by importing more from US - you get lower/no tariffs That won’t work. Over the medium term the

Ruble is up 2.3% on the USD No tariffs + little US exposure + gold works well

edgartools on GitHub

Do not browse insider trading SEC filings on EDGAR directly There’s a Python library called edgartools - much better, cleaner & you can directly extract the data Now go find alpha factors that you can use next time worldwide tariffs are set

TIL that you can pay taxes on vested securities/equities directly with that security Code F on Form 4

Insider Trading Before Tariffs If you’re curious about how insiders were buying/selling their equity positions, head over to @SECGov's EDGAR & check for Form 4 & 3 filings Here’s the latest one from $AAPL

Silver is down almost 20%

Gold is down 6% from its ATH Still better than equities, crypto & silver

🚨BREAKING: S&P 500 Fell to 2021 Prices #SPX futures / #US500 is down almost 5% since open ≈4 years of gains have been lost

Tariffs are just a distraction from the fact that orange juice futures are down over 50% 🍊

🇷🇺 #MOEX down 22% since Feb Expect it to bounce back very soon - as capital is moved away from USA & USD into alt currencies, which includes Ruble Once the sanctions against Russia are dropped - that’s where Moscow Exchange Index will skyrocket 📈 http

🚨 US Yield Curve UPDATE Despite the falling $DXY, the yield curve is better (less inverted) than a 1y ago, but worse than 1 month ago Expect a steeper inversion soon

This tariffs-induced volatility is the dream of every trader Clearing houses are banking from fees & comissions Finally, risky-assets/DeFi/crypto volatility coming to your favorite regulated exchange What’s even the point of all the regulations in TradFi?

🇮🇳 Indian Rupee's M2 supply makes it even worse Net importer + currency inflation is a recipe for depreciation and external dependence

🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 BRICS & Tariffs Amid the collective chaos there is a group of nations set to benefit from President Trump's tariffs HINT: it's not the USA ❌🇺🇸 BRICS got geopolitical justification for their existence Tariff-free zone + local currency trade acts as insurance http

🇮🇳 India has accumulated a massive trade deficit India imports from China, Russia & then exports to USA & UAE. The imports are also similar to exports & a lot of it is re-exports This deficit isn’t sustainable of course https://t.co

$VIX is a measure of expected volatility It’s computed from option prices. The price of the option is the insurance/premium that the option seller/short charges So higher option price = protection against more volatility

Tbh $VIX isn’t that high (yet )

Institutional longs were just reaching 2022 levels at Q2 2024 How do you think Q2 2025 will look like?