This is definitely good news short-term for the USD! Today, short-term funding got 1.25% cheaper for the US government, and once the FED lowers the interest rates, the yields will fall more. Now ofc this will lead to inflation & devaluation of USD, but that’s a a different story

Look at that liquidity moving from short-term Chinese bonds(CN01Y), to short-term US bonds(US02Y) 👀 The market liked the removal of tariffs, however, you can’t undo the massive volatility over the past 2 weeks Moreover, US Dollar index is still below 100

🚨 Ruble is up 30% on USD 2025 YTD 82-68 is a strong support - including pre-Ukraine war liquidity A small pullback is very likely to happen, but in the medium-long term it’s heading towards the 68 Once sanctions are dropped by US & EU - RUB will skyrocket

ChatGPT states that a higher interest rate means bad currency & economy Lower interest rates on the other hand - a flourishing economy What GPT-o1 failed to mention is that higher interest rates promote savings - a non-inflationary demand Keynesian economics in its training 🤷‍♀️

🚨US 10 Year Bond yield spikes above 4.5% at open I previously posted about the move of liquidity towards the Chinese bonds The USD is facing an increased perceived risk, which in addition to the public debt puts questions on its role as the reserve currency

Yuan downside party really didn’t last 😳 It went up just as fast as it went down Yuan up + falling yields on Chinese bonds builds a positive outlook for renminbi The hinted US securities liquidation/purchase pause by Chinese banks also contributed to this All expected 🤷‍♀️

🚨 Chinese 1 year bond prices are up ≈6% Two extremes: 🇺🇸Massive selling pressure on US Treasury securities 🇨🇳Massibe buying pressure on MoF Chinese securities USD-denominated debt is being swapped for Yuan-denominated debt Tariffs mainly hurt the US (unsurprisingly)

Not everything is as it seems 👀

1. It will NOT happen 2. What 😂 Imagine swapping a part of the peg of the US Dollar - the world reserve currency - from gold to a highly volatile asset The US Bond market would crash at record numbers. Same for US Dollar index

🇩🇪 Germany's GDP is 1/4 of EU's GDP There are 27 countries in the European Union. 26 of them combined represent 3/4 of EU's GDP Germany, France & Italy represent 52% of EU's GDP You have to be very specific when talking about EU economy 🇪🇺

Regarding the bond market collapse ⬇️ US Treasury Securities are the main collateral used in repurchase agreements. Given that these are short-term, the yield spike is unlikely to lead to defaults However, the fall in bond prices will reduce credit, adding to liquidity crunch

Another important fact to mention regarding Russia, is that on top of sell-off of US securities & loading up on gold in record numbers, throughout 2025 Central Bank of Russia has kept interest rates at 21% 🤯 Result = massive savings However, if EU or US did the same - their economies would collapse overnight

Lower USD Index = USD Devaluation = Higher premium for USD loans = Lower bond prices = Higher bond yields It’s all connected

Looks like “lowest renminbi/Yuan since 2008” didn’t last long 🤷‍♀️

🇺🇸 US Treasury bond yields are acting as a risky asset Over 2% daily moves is something you see in crypto 👀 And I don’t believe the FED will be raising rates - so it’s a market-driven US debt premium increase Lower rates incoming, but sovereign premium will still increase

I think now you understand 😁 Gold hitting ATH after ATH 🎉 Very concerning for USD

Here’s a visual of how it looks like A timeline of thoughts/short-form content/microblog ⬇️

Just launched I’ll use for short-form posts. Think Twitter/X, but self-hosted under my domain It’s an MVP and for now contains a subset of X posts. Later I’ll make it real-timish and cross-post some of my content from here Coded using Gemini 2.5 Pro

US Dollar Index $DXY fell below 100 😳

To clarify - here you’re stating with US Dollar and then buying either Ruble or Gold. It’s in this scenario that both investments have a similar yield If you start with EUR, Ruble actually yields more than Gold - 9.3 vs 11% (in the past 3 months)

And Ruble is up on Gold since January 🤯 All while Gold is at ATH & it’s extremely difficult to buy ruble or any Russia-issued financial instruments due to sanctions Loading up foreign reserves with gold & selling US Treasury securities worked ✅

It gets crazier 🤯 In the past 3 months, amids the tariff madness - at the time of rush into safe assets - Ruble & Gold head-to-head You could’ve either bought gold or Ruble & gained 18% in both cases And buying ruble isn’t easy due to sanctions. Imagine when it opens up

Ruble is a gold success story ✨ Sanctions, tariffs, raising M2 - it doesn’t care Central Bank Of Russia sold off their US bonds & loaded up on gold ⬇️ US bond prices are down ⬆️ Gold is up ⬆️ Ruble is up against USD Expect this playbook to be repeated by others

🚨Financial Stress Index Keeps Going Up It has now reached COVID-levels Combine they with the bond sell off, the falling dollar index & you get a worrying picture The stock market will rebounce/inflate, but that will increase the premium for debt refinancing over time

Regulated equities market, which is supposed to be low-risk became as volatile as crypto Just look at NASDAQ, S&P500 & Co Every time I open TradingView it’s a +-5% Maybe more regulations will solve this? 😁