โฌ๏ธ My Thoughts โฌ๏ธ
๐ท๐ด National Bank of Romania's gold reserves are โ13% of their international reserves as of March 2025 I like how they added the paragraph in red ๐ Gold reserves unchanged - value raising. Get used to this trend
๐ท๐ด I like how Romania's Central Bank has this image breaking down their international reserves on their homepage However, I didn't understand why it links to November 2024 data, when March 2025 data is already available ๐ Gold reserves are โ12% here
Ford F-150 sold 2285 units in China ๐จ๐ณ Great Wall Cannon (้ฟๅ็ฎ) - 80K Unlike the US or most of the world - China has effective factories & supply chains - offering them a myriad of domestic alternatives China doesn't need Ford. Ford needs China due to imported parts
๐ท๐บ Russian residents are net creditors to the world In Balance of Payments, financial account tracks transactions involving financial assets and liabilities Positive value = more capital leaving country than entering Sanctions make it almost impossible to invest in Russia
๐บ๐ธ USD index bearish/in a downtrend 5Y timeframe weekly chart shows lower highs & lows Ever since Trump took office, every $DXY weekly candle has been red Greatest USD economy in history ๐ซ
๐ท๐บ Russian government gets a lot of revenue from natural resource exports, such as oil and gas This means the government has a lot of Rubles to deposit at the Central Bank ๐A big help towards the CBR maintaining negative net claims on the government Result = strong Ruble ๐
๐ท๐บ Another reason for a strong Ruble is the consistent negative net claims on general government on the balance sheet of Russian Central Bank Russian government deposited more in the central bank than borrowed from it - meaning NO monetary financing of budget deficit
๐ท๐บ Ruble correlates with gold, becoming a hedge against USD USD falls against both, Ruble & gold Russian Central Bank has been continuously increasing their gold holdings, which are currently more than 1/2 the size of their foreign currency reserves & 35% of int'l reserves
I've referred to gold being 35% of Russian Central Bank's foreign currency reserves, when I in fact meant international reserves The core idea is unchanged - this is a technicality. Central Bank of Russia reports: International Reserves = Foreign Exchange Reserves + Gold
๐บ๐ธ๐ท๐บ USD is TANKING against Ruble โฆ on a daily basis ๐ณ It's only partially tariffs. This has been a trend even prior to them Russia loaded up on Gold & sold off their US securities. Trade with US is negligible Russia self-administered an immunity shot
๐ต๐น Portugal's Central Bank is LOADED with gold ๐ Gold reserves are >80% of total assets Props to @bancodeportugal for a healthy balance sheet ratio From now on - only gold-sprinkled pastรฉis de nata!
๐บ๐ธ๐ท๐บ USD/RUB dipped under 82 ๐ณ Combine that with $DXY downtrend & a concerning picture for USD emerges
๐จUS Dollar Index going to โ98.3 Current price is a strong monthly level The next destination is low 98's
Grok summarized US tariffs effect very well As well as what will happen to the US economy, and by extension, US Dollar - the most important currency in the world
๐จ68-82 is the next range for USD/RUB A lot of liquidity in that area & expect selling pressure. But there is also selling pressure on the USD RUB is already up 30% YTD, so expect some pullbacks in the white box region
๐จ Ruble falls below 82 against USD I've been writing for a long time about Ruble & the Russian economy, but it's still crazy to watch it play out live REMEMBER: Russia is still under heavy sanctions, and it's virtually impossible to purchase RUB. Once they're dropped: ๐
Nice catch! Indeed, the adjusted March deficit is higher. It also means the adjusted February's deficit is lower By 'adjusted' I mean had the payments not been shifted due to March 1st falling on a Saturday
Pushed updates to https://illya.sh/thoughts/ The images now lazy load & fixed several issues on desktop Also updated/synced the content
๐จBREAKING: Goldโฆ. Actually, gold has been reaching new ATHs every other day Not BREAKING anymore - the new normal ๐คทโโ๏ธ Heading for $3.4K now
๐ช๐บ๐ท๐บ So how can you buy Russian securities in the EU? Since 2022 it's unfeasible. IBKR & KIT Finance suspended trading Deep researching with LLMs now, but it hasn't been very fruitful so far ๐ค Once the sanctions are lifted you'll see the prices explode
2Y US Bond is a good factor/signal of FED funds rate, but there's an even better one! CME's 30-day FED Funds futures is a derivative for this exact purpose. The market prices them according to the expectations of upcoming FED Funds Rates ๐
