using historical behavior can be a great alpha - but you should probably focus on the patterns from this century perpetually low ≈0% interest rates have been a norm only post ≈2009 (but the bubble started before) so you want to look at the behavior in that environment

Illya Gerasymchuk 2025-07-05 18:22

this is the general model, and think of these events as adding pressure towards the described outcome, rather than an axiom there are other events than can steer the pressure towards a different outcome, and the final outcome is a combination of all 😄