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Illya Gerasymchuk
Financial & Software Engineer

After tweaking the existing set of base learner models, the random-forest driven trading model factory continues to improve

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Illya Gerasymchuk

2026-02-18 14:30

After tweaking the existing set of base learner models, the random-forest driven trading model factory continues to improve

The win rate for predicting Bitcoin's 5-minute price moves (binary) is now approaching 54%. A win rate of β‰ˆ56% should suffice to accommodate for transaction costs. Win rates over 60% is where it starts to get interesting.

After tweaking the existing set of base learner models, the random-forest driven trading model factory continues to improve
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