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Illya Gerasymchuk
Entrepreneur / Engineer

Bitcoin market, cycles & ETF flows

Timeline of BTC price action, halving-cycle milestones, ETF flows and correlations with macro liquidity.

User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-09-28 15:40

virtually every corporation that accepts Ethereum/Bitcoin for payments doesn't actually process the payment in crypto

they immediately covert it to USD or another FIAT, and not actually hold the BTC, ETH, etc

the convertion is generally done via an intermediary, so the company you're buying never even touch or care about the crypto asset. they want the same government-backed currencies that we use now

the intermediary will also generally charge a fee, around ≈1% of the transaction value. so buying directly with crypto is likely to be more expensive than directly with FIAT. if you just sell the crypto for FIAT and pay directly in USD, EUR, etc it will likely be cheaper. so what's the point of paying more?

don't be fooled by headlines or articles that suggest otherwise

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-09-27 00:08

when mega caps like gold explode by ≈50% in a year and you don't think that that's a warning sign for US equities/risk asset - you probably should look back at history 😄

Bitcoin and Intel have do have one thing in common - direct monetary intervention from the US government

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-09-25 20:20

you can read the full article/thread explaining why September is generally a bad month for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies here: https://illya.sh/threads/@1755867104-1.html

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my article on repo rates and BTC price was referenced on bitcoin.com

apparently it's been there for a month, but i only noticed now

it's a short read - and explains the negative price pressure that quarter-ends, and especially September bring on the price of liquidity sensitive assets like Bitcoin

it give you a concrete perspective on the current cryptocurrency price dump, even with decreasing funding rates

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-09-25 20:12

my article on repo rates and BTC price was referenced on bitcoin.com

apparently it's been there for a month, but i only noticed now

it's a short read - and explains the negative price pressure that quarter-ends, and especially September bring on the price of liquidity sensitive assets like Bitcoin

it give you a concrete perspective on the current cryptocurrency price dump, even with decreasing funding rates

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-22 13:58

this is one of the reasons why September is historically a bad month for Bitcoin

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repo rates increase and borrowing decreases in quarter-ends

this includes the upcoming month of September. in addition, September 15th the corporate tax limit in the US

this reduces global liquidity, so asset prices tend to fall

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