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Illya Gerasymchuk
Entrepreneur / Engineer

Russia & ruble macro updates

Regular insights on RUB moves, CBR policy, sanctions, reserves and broader Russian macro developments.

User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-05-09 14:40

🇷🇺 TIL Russia has a National Wealth Fund

Excess oil & gas profits are credited to NWF

NWF funds are used to finance government deficit, instead of relying on debt issuance of Ruble (government bonds). Inflation-free deficit financing

🇪🇺 We need this in the EU for Euro

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-24 12:08

Correlation between Ruble & Gold 🇷🇺🥇:

Gold up ➡️ Ruble up
Gold down ➡️ Ruble down
Gold sideways ➡️ Ruble sideways

Russia could make RUB gold-backed, make RUB convertible to gold on demand & position RUB as a 'trustless'/money-backed currency

Already halfway through there

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-23 22:45

🇷🇺 Ruble is correlating with gold

This also explains the recent fall in price. Gold went down against USD & so did RUB

Such a retracement after multiple consecutive ATHs is expected

Fundamentals are still on the side of gold

🧠 Remember: gold is 35% of Russia's int'l reserves

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-23 20:08

🇷🇺 Ruble outflows into USD 🇺🇸

A lot of liquidity moved from RUB back into USD. This is also telling by the rebounded USD index

But gold will appreciate further. Russian Central Bank's massive gold reserves will pay off

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-04-21 15:15

🇷🇺 Russian Central Bank key interest rate is at 21%

3Y Russian Federation bonds are at ≈16.5% yield

The market is pricing in upcoming rate cuts

@AskPerplexity and @grok will tell you that Ruble & Russian economy are in a bad state. The reality is different

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