Unsurprisingly, the deadline for Iran attack had been extended
Unsurprisingly, the deadline for Iran attack had been extended
I explained why a few hours before the ceasefire was officially announced. The market was very clear on this one.
While as whole the market may appear noisy, if you correctly isolate the right signals you can frequently derive a useful model for the future.
For this case, you could focus on the following 3 asset class prices under the current regime: gold, US Treasury debt yield and oil prices. If the escalation were to happen today we wouldn't see gold up, oil down and bond yields down like we did prior to the trading day close. Instead, if an escalation were indeed to occur in the next hours, you'd see something like gold down, oil up and bond yields up (short-term, the yields may be pushed down due to collateral demand, but increased future costs would soon push the term premia higher).
This was one of the times where the market signal was extremely congruent with an upcoming reduction of military escalations.
The Iran attack deadline will be extended
To me, the market is clear on this one
You wouldn't see oil down, gold up and government debt yields down. In case an attack would occur in the next few hours, gold would be down, oil up, yields likely up as well
Next few hours will confirm this
