US dollar, DXY & FX market insights
High-frequency views on DXY, dollar funding, cross-currency basis and how USD trends shape global assets.
🇷🇺 oil up is GOOD news for Russia & Ruble
every surplus above $60/barrel of Urals oil increases FX reserves in NWF (Yuan or gold) - an interplay between MoF and CBR
exporters pay taxes in Ruble - so higher buying pressure
mark my words:
👉 you'll see USD/RUB exchange rate fall
🚨🛢️ crude oil up to almost $70
and this while the US dollar index is also up
over a month and a half ago I told you that it's going to resume the uptrend - and this thesis has been confirmed again and again
wait & watch what comes next - I wrote about that as well 😁
🚨🛢️ crude oil up to almost $70
and this while the US dollar index is also up
over a month and a half ago I told you that it's going to resume the uptrend - and this thesis has been confirmed again and again
wait & watch what comes next - I wrote about that as well 😁
🛢️ crude oil price is heading back up - just like I wrote earlier
significant geopolitical events introduce volatility - but my thesis on increasing oil, gold & other precious metals + commodities has little to do with that
👉 it's about global liquidity flows & bond markets
🇷🇺 3 months of Ruble gains against USD erased in 5 days 😄
but also contextualize it with the overall increase in the US Dollar Index over the past 2 days
👋 hello, volatility
3 days ago the Russian Central Bank cut down the key interest rate by 200bp down to 18%
the only way from here is further down - and if you look at the Russian bond yields that's exactly what they're telling
but honestly you don't need advanced quant to reach this conclusion 😂
🇺🇸🇨🇳 USA & China are the global liquidity drivers in financial markets
since 2000, each injected ≈$6 trillion of public money into markets. that's ≈40% of global liquidity 🤯
in 2025 - China is leading with injections
weaker USD + FED rate cuts & QE allow China to print Yuan/renminbi without a capital runoff
easing monetary conditions in the US means more capital in circulation globally - not just in PRC
thus, relative inflation is kept under more control
🇨🇳🇺🇸 china's CPI is below US's ⬇️
weaker USD + FED rate cuts & QE allow China to print Yuan/renminbi without a capital runoff
easing monetary conditions in the US means more capital in circulation globally - not just in PRC
thus, relative inflation is kept under more control
🇨🇳🇺🇸 china's CPI is below US's ⬇️
🇨🇳 china's central bank uses USD value as a key driver in economic policies
the monetary easing policy is adjusted by PBoC based on the dollar's trend - up or down
weaker USD + expected liquidity USD injections = Yuan/renminbi injections
🇨🇳 china's central bank uses USD value as a key driver in economic policies
the monetary easing policy is adjusted by PBoC based on the dollar's trend - up or down
weaker USD + expected liquidity USD injections = Yuan/renminbi injections
💧FED swap lines = infinite liquidity pool
👉 here's how:
1️⃣ central banks exchange their foreign currency for USD, 7-80 days later, they reverse the exchange at the same rate + fee
2️⃣ central banks then lend these new USD to commercial banks
thus, USD demand is met
central bank balance sheets are an underrated resource for understanding the global liquidity moves
if you're following my posts - you already know that
rising US bond yields, ruble & gold
falling USD
i've been warning about it for months
90's style data = massive alpha 😂⬇️
central banks will continue to buy gold
you'll be able to confirm that in their upcoming balance sheets reports. pay special attention to China & Russia
enjoy the dip, because smart money is!
USD decline prediction was spot-on ✅
2 months later and US dollar index just bounced off from 97
the past 6 months have been a downtrend for $DXY
🚨US Dollar Index going to ≈98.3
Current price is a strong monthly level
The next destination is low 98's
Falling US Dollar index played out exactly as expected
2 months later and it's down another full point
🇺🇸 USD index bearish/in a downtrend
5Y timeframe weekly chart shows lower highs & lows
Ever since Trump took office, every $DXY weekly candle has been red
Greatest USD economy in history 🫠
The Ruble thesis remains valid
Up ≈13% on the USD in the past quarter
🚨 Ruble is up 30% on USD 2025 YTD
82-68 is a strong support - including pre-Ukraine war liquidity
A small pullback is very likely to happen, but in the medium-long term it's heading towards the 68
Once sanctions are dropped by US & EU - RUB will skyrocket
⚡️ US Bond yields directly affect USD liquidity
Here's how 👇
1️⃣ Repo + reverse repo market provides $5 trillion of liquidity
2️⃣ US bonds represent ≈70% of collateral
3️⃣ Lower bond prices means smaller loans, leading to a liquidity squeeze
🇺🇸 US bond yields are at their ≈2006 levels
🏦 Current FED Funds rate is about the same as it was in '06
💰 The US Dollar Index is significantly higher today than in '06
High volatility in the bond market became a norm. Volatility & risk go hand-in-hand
Concerning!
🚨🇺🇸 USD Index UPDATE - it's down:
As expected - USD index is back down - falling sharply below 98
I asked ChatGPT o3 what will happen to the economy of the US, if USD index goes down & Treasury bond yields go up
It correctly pointed out that for a heavily indebted net importer - these are not good news
However, the risk is far beyond than just stagflation ⬇️
🇷🇺 Ruble outflows into USD 🇺🇸
A lot of liquidity moved from RUB back into USD. This is also telling by the rebounded USD index
But gold will appreciate further. Russian Central Bank's massive gold reserves will pay off
Upwards retracements for US Dollar Index are normal
$DXY fell to ≈98.3 as I previously predicted
That whole area is a monthly support level, thus a source & trigger for massive amounts of liquidity
It's not only FOREX, but also the world reserve currency
🇺🇸UPDATE: USD Index in fact did NOT enjoy this
#DXY down over 1% today, currently at 98.3
It's almost like aggressively weaponizing the currency erodes the trust in it. Who knew!
🇺🇸 USD index bearish/in a downtrend
5Y timeframe weekly chart shows lower highs & lows
Ever since Trump took office, every $DXY weekly candle has been red
Greatest USD economy in history 🫠
🇷🇺 Ruble correlates with gold, becoming a hedge against USD
USD falls against both, Ruble & gold
Russian Central Bank has been continuously increasing their gold holdings, which are currently more than 1/2 the size of their foreign currency reserves & 35% of int'l reserves
🇺🇸🇷🇺 USD is TANKING against Ruble
… on a daily basis 😳
It's only partially tariffs. This has been a trend even prior to them
Russia loaded up on Gold & sold off their US securities. Trade with US is negligible
Russia self-administered an immunity shot
🇺🇸🇷🇺 USD/RUB dipped under 82 😳
Combine that with $DXY downtrend & a concerning picture for USD emerges
🚨US Dollar Index going to ≈98.3
Current price is a strong monthly level
The next destination is low 98's