A month ago me and Gemini 2.5 Pro Deep Research had a disagreement

🇯🇵 Gemini said Japan will continue with QT, while I think they will be back to QE soon

With Japanese bond yields at ATHs - which one of the scenarios do you find more likely? 😁

8 months later, Japan's 30 year bond yield is now ≈32% higher

The yields on the 30Y Japanese bonds is approaching 4%. The yields are up across the whole tenor curve.

Soon, BoJ will have little options left but to resume QE and lower interest rates, and thus expand the Yen monetary base in an effort to reduce government refinancing costs (A.K.A. government bond yields).

I first wrote about this almost a year ago. The thesis for 2026 and onwards remains the same.