Don't Overthink Commodity Miners Investments

I'm now coming across several large finance accounts on X, which are sharing the results of their miner equity picks from 2025 made available to groups/newsletters/communities with paid access. The results from their buy calls from just a few months ago look impressive - price more than doubling isn't uncommon. The keywords here are *isn't uncommon*. A 2x gain in the mining sector since November 2025 isn't impressive. When evaluating the quality of the calls, it's important that you establish the correct baseline.

One examples of such buy calls was shared by Peter Schiff, who posted his investment suggestion from November 2025 on Nexa Resources S.A. (NYSE: NEXA), which is a miner/producer of zinc, copper, silver and some gold. Since November 2025, its stock price has more than doubled. This was shared as a part of a paid newsletter, whose November 2025 issue was made available to the public. While a >100% price increase may seem impressive, you could've been better off by just investing in a larger, well established miners like Hecla, which are subjects to a smaller set of risks.

Speaking numbers, you could've achieved a similar x2 gain since November 2025 by acquiring Hecla Mining Company stock (NYSE: HL) instead. Hecla is a well-established gold, silver, zinc and other metals miner with more than 60 years of price action dating back to 1964. In contrast, Nexa's price action dates back only by less than a decade - to 2017. As such, you can achieve the result at the cost of a smaller risk. I've shared Hecla Mining several times in my lists on my website throughout 2025 at no cost. I probably also shared others, but Hecla is the one that first comes to mind.

Here's what's important to understand:

There's a global liquidity inflow into the commodities sector, which includes miners, producers & Co equities. The alpha comes from identifying outperformers relative to the index, conditional to risk. Well-established, long running companies generally come with a lower risk profiles, compared to less well established or juniors.

The question isn't whether you can get more upside gain with smaller cap miners/juniors, the question is whether that extra potential gain justifies the extra risk and cost. Frequently the most obvious choices are the best ones. Investing into several miner/producer indexes, alongside a few individual well established, large-cap picks may be all that you need.