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Illya Gerasymchuk
Entrepreneur / Engineer

๐Ÿ’งFED swap lines = infinite liquidity pool

๐Ÿ‘‰ here's how:

1๏ธโƒฃ central banks exchange their foreign currency for USD, 7-80 days later, they reverse the exchange at the same rate + fee

2๏ธโƒฃ central banks then lend these new USD to commercial banks

thus, USD demand is met

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FED swap line operations reach โ‰ˆ$600 bn

while the swaps are closed/repaid in less than a year, โ‰ˆ80% of the repayment comes from newly issued wholesale debt

thus, โ‰ˆ80% of the swap volume eventually becomes new currency in circulation

and then you wonder about inflation ๐Ÿ˜„

new currency in circulation is just one of the side-effects

and that transition is neither direct, nor instant

before these funds effectively become new currency, they flow into financial markets - that's why you see the stock market going up first

the same for risky assets

check the correlation between FED swap line volumes and Bitcoin price

large spikes in swap volume trigger an uptrend in Bitcoin

understanding these global liquidity flows helps to visualize them as a part of the larger system and understand where it's likely to move next

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