'The market is never wrong' #7

'The market is never wrong'

A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything & prices accordingly - even before the official news

Okay.

Now wait & watch crude oil & gold raise up even more in price very soon

This isn't a joke

🛢️ crude oil price is heading back up - just like I wrote earlier

significant geopolitical events introduce volatility - but my thesis on increasing oil, gold & other precious metals + commodities has little to do with that

👉 it's about global liquidity flows & bond markets

🚨🛢️ crude oil up to almost $70

and this while the US dollar index is also up

over a month and a half ago I told you that it's going to resume the uptrend - and this thesis has been confirmed again and again

wait & watch what comes next - I wrote about that as well 😁

🇷🇺 oil up is GOOD news for Russia & Ruble

every surplus above $60/barrel of Urals oil increases FX reserves in NWF (Yuan or gold) - an interplay between MoF and CBR

exporters pay taxes in Ruble - so higher buying pressure

mark my words:
👉 you'll see USD/RUB exchange rate fall

🇺🇸🇷🇺 USD/RUB rate already fell to July 24th close, below 80

although it's also important to note that there are several factors at play - USD index is also down today

despite oil down - gold is up. this is about the monetary policy of Russia and their balance sheet structure

if you've read my previous posts you know that gold is ≈36% of Russia's international reserves

this is taken straight from the Bank of Russia's balance sheet statement

100% of it is stored in Russia, thus no counterparty risk

critical component of Ruble's strength

5 days ago I wrote that USD/RUB rate will fall. 5 days later it's down ≈2%

despite oil being down - gold is up

Ruble has hedge from multiple sides

further deprecation of USD against Ruble

now back to July 4th 2025 levels