⬇️ My Thoughts ⬇️
🤯👉 Quant trading secrets they don't want you to know On the bright side - the Sharpe Ratio may soon underflow, thus turning it very positive Still counts, right? 😂
USD/EUR price action is developing exactly as described 😄 Once price went below the pink trend support line it fell through to 0.8785 exactly, before resuming a steeper downtrend after a failed breakout
If USD/EUR falls below the pink trend line, it's a fall to ≈0.8785 From here the downtrend towards ≈0.8689 (monthly level) is setup to be resumed & likely under a tighter channel (up: pink, bottom: green) - so a faster downfall of USD against EUR Stay tuned 📻
🚀 .txt mirror for my X tweets/posts: https://illya.sh/thoughts/thoughts.txt TL;DR: 👉 plaintext version of my thoughts/tweets 👉 accessible on every device - even smart watch & IoT 👉 LLM-friendly format 👉 UTF-8 encoded text with emojis UI looks like this:
If USD/EUR falls below the pink trend line, it's a fall to ≈0.8785 From here the downtrend towards ≈0.8689 (monthly level) is setup to be resumed & likely under a tighter channel (up: pink, bottom: green) - so a faster downfall of USD against EUR Stay tuned 📻
🇺🇸 Cancelled tariffs means refunds, which means a larger budget deficit Rising bond yields means that deficit is (even) more expensive to refinance The FED will soon need inject liquidity via QE + lower interest rates
90% of all newly issued debt is for refinancing of existing debt, not new debt/financing Thus, new debt is extremely inflationary & asset bubble-nurturing The financial system is extremely leveraged at a high risk We need to fix this. DeFi is the tool
Michael Saylor doesn't need to expose MSRT's wallets for a proof of reserves All you need is Zero Knowledge Proof attesting that MicroStrategy has access to private key(s) holding a total of X BTC With ZKPs - no Bitcoin addresses are exposed ✨
Sustained high bond yields combined with QE will lead to an inflation of equity and risk asset prices Here's how 👇 1️⃣ High yields = high required base return 2️⃣ Inflow of QE funds into equities & crypto 3️⃣ Equities & cryptocurrency prices increase Further fuel for the bubble
⚡️ US Bond yields directly affect USD liquidity Here's how 👇 1️⃣ Repo + reverse repo market provides $5 trillion of liquidity 2️⃣ US bonds represent ≈70% of collateral 3️⃣ Lower bond prices means smaller loans, leading to a liquidity squeeze
🏦 Quantitative Easing (QE) by a Central Bank (CB) increase both - its assets & liabilities 👇 QE = CB buys securities from commercial banks 👆 This involves: 1️⃣ Transfer of securities to CB (asset UP) 2️⃣ Credit the bank's reserve account (liability UP)
👉 M2 Supply ≠ Liquidity 👈 M2 is only a part of the total liquidity 🔎 Here's an example: Repurchase agreements market adds ≈$17T in the form of security-backed short-term credit, thus increasing available currency M2 does not account for the repo market
⚡️ Crypto market cap down 2.6% today Explains the overall pullback across prices. Some went into gold & bonds (yields are down today) Could head a little lower - but definitely temporary. Expect inflows/increase soon
🚀📚 Learn ANYTHING with AI fast: 1️⃣ Screenshot what you don't understand (e.g. book page) 2️⃣ Open ChatGPT*, attach screenshot & dictate your question - no matter how vague/unclear it is 3️⃣ Recurse & iterate until you understand Always validate your understanding * any LLM
Gold is having its 'calm before the storm' moment 😄 New all time high is coming very soon to all markets close to you
Of course - context is always needed In 2002 Fed Funds Rate was x3 smaller At that time, rates were higher overall To find rates as small as in 2002, you'd need to go back to the 1960's 😳 For 15 years now, US had effectively been under QE financing - cheap debt 🏦🫧
🤯 The year is 2002… US bond yields are at the same high levels as they were in 2002… That's 23 years ago In 2002 US national debt was x6 SMALLER than now 5.1% now is not the same as 5.1% before - it's worse. Much more debt to refinance & pay interest
Who's ready for a new gold ATH? 🙋 You don't have to guess - just look at the systemic raising bond yields across all maturities & multiple sovereigns
🇨🇭Not all European bonds are crashing The yields on the 10 year Swiss bond is actually down ≈40% over the past 3 months, although up ≈12% over 6 months
🚨🇺🇸 30Y bond yield is up 132 bp in 1h 30 year US bond is not only trading above 5%, but had its price fall by ≈1.34% in the short span of 60 minutes And you thought crypto & meme coins were volatile 😂
A month ago me and Gemini 2.5 Pro Deep Research had a disagreement 🇯🇵 Gemini said Japan will continue with QT, while I think they will be back to QE soon With Japanese bond yields at ATHs - which one of the scenarios do you find more likely? 😁
🇺🇸 US bond yields are at their ≈2006 levels 🏦 Current FED Funds rate is about the same as it was in '06 💰 The US Dollar Index is significantly higher today than in '06 High volatility in the bond market became a norm. Volatility & risk go hand-in-hand Concerning!
🚀 Updated My Thoughts Section Now, each thought has: 👉 A unique shareable page/link 👉 OpenGraph images with the exact text of the thought So you don't even need to open the page when reading the thought - it's in the link's preview Example: