⬇️ My Thoughts ⬇️
Just wait until Bitcoin hype accounts find out that Czechia has not adapted the Euro, so it's not a part of the Eurozone.
Thus, the Czech National Bank (CNB) is a part of European System of Central Banks (ESCB), but not a full Eurosystem central bank, so it's not represented in and not bound by the ECB Governing Council's monetary policy decisions.
No Eurozone National Central Bank (NCB) is holding Bitcoin in their reserves, and ECB's current policy rejects the idea of BTC as a reserve asset.
Watch what they do, not what Bitcoin hype media says.
In my post ranking gold as a percentage of central bank balance sheet size I wrote renminbi/yen, when I meant renminbi/yuan
Yen is, of course, the Japanese, not PRC's local currency. I will correct this under threads & thoughts on my website, but it will remain with this typo on X (you can't update the post after 1 hour)
Russia will buy Silver as a strategic reserve until 2027
I'm not speculating on anything, this comes directly from the Russian legislation, namely the Federal Law № 419-ФЗ (in Russian/cyrilic: Федеральный закон от 30 ноября 2024 г. № 419-ФЗ) whose budget tables for 2025–2027 allocate ≈51.5 billion rubles (≈$640M) per year as budget for the "acquisition of state reserves of precious metals and precious stones".
Silver falls explicitly under the definition of "precious metals". More specifically, under Russian framework law № 41-ФЗ the term "precious metals" ("драгоценные металлы") is explicitly defined as gold, silver, platinum and the metals of the platinum group.
In addition to the above, in the official explanatory note (пояснительная записка) to the draft of Federal Law № 419-ФЗ the Russian Ministry of Finance explicitly states that the plan is to acquire refined gold, refined silver, refined platinum and refined palladium for strategic goals. More specifically, the aim is to increase the share of "highly liquid valuables" in the State Fund of Precious Metals and Precious Stones of the Russian Federation (Госфонд России).
You can read the article here: https://illya.sh/threads/how-does-the-federal-reserve-set-interest-rates
In July I wrote a primer on the mechanics by which the Fed steers the prevailing interest rates in the economy.
It covers the ON RRP, IORB, Discount Rate and SRF channels, explaining how together they set a corridor with upper and lower limits for the effective rate.
Prior to today the article reading experience was subpar, due to the amount of supporting images - the thread is composed of several shorter posts, and each one came with an image.
I've made it a lot more readable by removing most of the images
This is how The Soviet Union kickstarted Eurodollar markets in the 1950's
Eurodollars are USD deposits held at banks outside the U.S. Originally, they were held mostly in European jurisdictions, thus the "Euro" in the name.
URSS needed U.S. dollars for international trade, but they didn't trust keeping balances directly in New York, as they feared that U.S. would freeze or seize those deposits.
So URSS placed their USD deposits in European banks, often via Soviet-linked banks. Those European banks then re-deposited or lent out those dollars to other banks and institutions.
I've written extensively how the policies of the current U.S. administration are a negative for the USD. Asian countries have been progressively moving away from USD, and this is a sign from Europe in that direction (but don't expect heavy de-dollarization in the near future).
Overall, I view this as a net positive for the sovereignty of EU/Europe as a whole. A more developed financial system infrastructure is crucial for attracting the use of Euro, which is already the 2nd most used currency in the world.
As I've written earlier today, Silver will encounter corrections
These are all buying opportunities - as is the whole price range within current larger pullback. The price bottoms I written about remain unchanged. The uptrend will resume
The same is true for gold
My prediction on Silver's bottom was correct: ≈$43-45 ✅
The uptrend goes on. The price will encounter more corrections along the way, but the bottoms I described previously remain valid.
Like for gold, I would re-analyze critically all sources that were claiming that the bullrun for silver is over.
In July I wrote a primer on the mechanics by which the Fed steers the prevailing interest rates in the economy.
It covers the ON RRP, IORB, Discount Rate and SRF channels, explaining how together they set a corridor with upper and lower limits for the effective rate.
Prior to today the article reading experience was subpar, due to the amount of supporting images - the thread is composed of several shorter posts, and each one came with an image.
I've made it a lot more readable by removing most of the images