Iran war escalates once again, and the market moves consistently with the framework I outlined in a prior post:
Iran war escalates once again, and the market moves consistently with the framework I outlined in a prior post:
(i) gold price down
(ii) crude oil price up
(iii) US Treasury debt yields up
As I've consistently pointed out, and in spite of contradicting claims by the U.S. Administration and mainstream media -- unfortunately, the Iran conflict is not yet over.
Keep watching the markets for developments -- they're much more accurate in their claims than third-parties.
Straight of Hormuz reopens partially and markets signal de-escalation in exactly the same manner I explained in my earlier post:
(i) US Treasury debt yields & term premia go down
(ii) Crude oil price falls significantly
(iii) Gold price continues upward towards re-testing $5000
While these market moves do not constitute a confirmation of an end to the Iran war, nor erase the potential for renewed escalations, the market is coherently signaling a material de-escalation event. However, as I have noted last week -- prepare for a lot of volatility. We'll need to wait at least until the end of Monday for a longer-term confirmation.
