Russia & ruble macro updates
Regular insights on RUB moves, CBR policy, sanctions, reserves and broader Russian macro developments.
In my post ranking gold as a percentage of central bank balance sheet size I wrote renminbi/yen, when I meant renminbi/yuan
Yen is, of course, the Japanese, not PRC's local currency. I will correct this under threads & thoughts on my website, but it will remain with this typo on X (you can't update the post after 1 hour)
Russia will buy Silver as a strategic reserve until 2027
I'm not speculating on anything, this comes directly from the Russian legislation, namely the Federal Law № 419-ФЗ (in Russian/cyrilic: Федеральный закон от 30 ноября 2024 г. № 419-ФЗ) whose budget tables for 2025–2027 allocate ≈51.5 billion rubles (≈$640M) per year as budget for the "acquisition of state reserves of precious metals and precious stones".
Silver falls explicitly under the definition of "precious metals". More specifically, under Russian framework law № 41-ФЗ the term "precious metals" ("драгоценные металлы") is explicitly defined as gold, silver, platinum and the metals of the platinum group.
In addition to the above, in the official explanatory note (пояснительная записка) to the draft of Federal Law № 419-ФЗ the Russian Ministry of Finance explicitly states that the plan is to acquire refined gold, refined silver, refined platinum and refined palladium for strategic goals. More specifically, the aim is to increase the share of "highly liquid valuables" in the State Fund of Precious Metals and Precious Stones of the Russian Federation (Госфонд России).
Gold as a percentage of balance sheet size in Central Banks (ranked):
🇯🇵 Japan (MoF + BoJ): ≈2.4%
🇨🇳 China (PBoC): ≈4.5%
🇺🇸 U.S. (Fed gold certificates): ≈15.9%
🇪🇺 European Union (ECB + Eurosystem): ≈19.4%
🇷🇺 Russia (BoR): ≈36.1%
All of the above will expand their balance sheets, but it's mostly China & Russia actively buying more gold.
Conclusions you can take from here:
➖ China's gold holdings are relatively small when compared to their Central Bank's balance sheet size, and given their efforts to promote renminbi as the invoice currency worldwide, you can expect PBoC to continue their gold purchases for the medium-long term. The gold share must at least double to come close to the current reserve currency - the U.S. dollar. All reserve currencies started on a gold and/or silver standard - and the pressure towards this direction won't be different for renminbi/yuan. When the USD became the world reserve currency with the Bretton-Woods agreement - gold certificates accounted for ≈40% of the Fed's balance sheet.
➖ Russia has built up a massive balance sheet capacity for the future. Once the international trade markets with Russia re-open, there will be a plenty of reserves to back-up a massive wave of Ruble credit. Expect Russian capital markets to rally then.
➖ European Union has a healthy relative position. Given that the Euro is currently the closest alternative to the U.S. Dollar - it's a good idea to both, expand gold reserves and promote capital markets. The latter is an explicit goal via the Capital Markets Union (CMU). Given that EU will further expand the balance sheet, it's necessary to increase the gold reserves - repricing won't be enough. Gold will make Euro more attractive, and with it the FX holdings of Euro by sovereigns.
a kind reminder that higher oil prices benefit Russia and Ruble
U.S. puts sanctions on Russia --> Oil price increases --> Ruble price increases
This is driven by how Russia's National Wealth Fund (NWF) operates, plus the fact that both NWF and Russia's Central Bank have almost no exposure to USD
🇷🇺 oil up is GOOD news for Russia & Ruble
every surplus above $60/barrel of Urals oil increases FX reserves in NWF (Yuan or gold) - an interplay between MoF and CBR
exporters pay taxes in Ruble - so higher buying pressure
mark my words:
👉 you'll see USD/RUB exchange rate fall
in Russia, besides the Bank of Russia there's also the National Wealth Fund (NWF), which is operated by the Ministry of Finance
in China, there's policy banks, such as China Development Bank which are supported by PBoC's facilities
this collateral (US Treasury bonds) can then be used on wholesale debt markets to issue more credit
moreover, this collateral can be leveraged/rehypothecated, thus increasing liquidity
still, in the USA the Fed continues to dominate in importance
so did Russia really buy more gold?
yes! despite CBR's gold reserves remaining unchanged - Russia's NWF has increased its gold reserves
Russia's National Wealth Fund interoperates with the Russian Central Bank, government deficits and the broader economy
IMF's 2024 annual report on SDDS compliance pointed out that Russia hasn't been meeting its requirements to the full extent, since they didn't disclose all of the required macro-financial data
SDDS = Special Data Dissemination Standard
if you noticed - the IMF template reported by Russian Central Bank is missing entries
so they're actually supposed to report those values (or N/A - if it doesn't apply), but since the 2022 sanctions they have concealed some of the values
IMF's guidelines mandate for the data to be either reported in Excel spreadsheet or SDMX
IMF pls update the specs to require publishing in HTML - i will happily provide you with XML to HTML scripts 😄
a clarification: the table is CBR's gold holdings in USD - so the value goes up if price of gold goes up and gold stock remains at least unchanged
troy ounce holdings are released in an IMF-templated PDF report, but with a lag
CBR's latest data is 79.4 M troy ounces of gold
both Russia & China increased their gold holdings since I wrote this 😄
indeed - central banks are continuing to buy the gold dips
further deprecation of USD against Ruble
now back to July 4th 2025 levels
5 days ago I wrote that USD/RUB rate will fall. 5 days later it's down ≈2%
despite oil being down - gold is up
Ruble has hedge from multiple sides
5 days ago I wrote that USD/RUB rate will fall. 5 days later it's down ≈2%
despite oil being down - gold is up
Ruble has hedge from multiple sides
if you've read my previous posts you know that gold is ≈36% of Russia's international reserves
this is taken straight from the Bank of Russia's balance sheet statement
100% of it is stored in Russia, thus no counterparty risk
critical component of Ruble's strength
both Russia & China increased their gold holdings since I wrote this 😄
indeed - central banks are continuing to buy the gold dips
central banks will continue to buy gold
you'll be able to confirm that in their upcoming balance sheets reports. pay special attention to China & Russia
enjoy the dip, because smart money is!
if you've read my previous posts you know that gold is ≈36% of Russia's international reserves
this is taken straight from the Bank of Russia's balance sheet statement
100% of it is stored in Russia, thus no counterparty risk
critical component of Ruble's strength
🇺🇸🇷🇺 USD/RUB rate already fell to July 24th close, below 80
although it's also important to note that there are several factors at play - USD index is also down today
despite oil down - gold is up. this is about the monetary policy of Russia and their balance sheet structure
🇺🇸🇷🇺 USD/RUB rate already fell to July 24th close, below 80
although it's also important to note that there are several factors at play - USD index is also down today
despite oil down - gold is up. this is about the monetary policy of Russia and their balance sheet structure
🇷🇺 oil up is GOOD news for Russia & Ruble
every surplus above $60/barrel of Urals oil increases FX reserves in NWF (Yuan or gold) - an interplay between MoF and CBR
exporters pay taxes in Ruble - so higher buying pressure
mark my words:
👉 you'll see USD/RUB exchange rate fall
🇷🇺 oil up is GOOD news for Russia & Ruble
every surplus above $60/barrel of Urals oil increases FX reserves in NWF (Yuan or gold) - an interplay between MoF and CBR
exporters pay taxes in Ruble - so higher buying pressure
mark my words:
👉 you'll see USD/RUB exchange rate fall
🚨🛢️ crude oil up to almost $70
and this while the US dollar index is also up
over a month and a half ago I told you that it's going to resume the uptrend - and this thesis has been confirmed again and again
wait & watch what comes next - I wrote about that as well 😁
🇷🇺 3 months of Ruble gains against USD erased in 5 days 😄
but also contextualize it with the overall increase in the US Dollar Index over the past 2 days
👋 hello, volatility
3 days ago the Russian Central Bank cut down the key interest rate by 200bp down to 18%
the only way from here is further down - and if you look at the Russian bond yields that's exactly what they're telling
but honestly you don't need advanced quant to reach this conclusion 😂
3 days ago the Russian Central Bank cut down the key interest rate by 200bp down to 18%
the only way from here is further down - and if you look at the Russian bond yields that's exactly what they're telling
but honestly you don't need advanced quant to reach this conclusion 😂
🇷🇺 and indeed Bank of Russia cuts interest rates down to 20%
3 months ago I wrote about how the Russian bond market was pricing in those cuts
a month ago the prediction materialized ✅
🇷🇺 and indeed Bank of Russia cuts interest rates down to 20%
3 months ago I wrote about how the Russian bond market was pricing in those cuts
a month ago the prediction materialized ✅
🇷🇺 Russian Central Bank key interest rate is at 21%
3Y Russian Federation bonds are at ≈16.5% yield
The market is pricing in upcoming rate cuts
@AskPerplexity and @grok will tell you that Ruble & Russian economy are in a bad state. The reality is different
a reminder that Russia doesn't trade with USA anymore 🇺🇸🤝🇷🇺
so it's not clear what 100% or 9999% tariffs on Russia will achieve
Russia's been offloading US securities for gold since 2018
Russia's exports to the US are less than 1% of the total
🇷🇺 Russia is immune to US tariffs
Russia's international reserves are as follows:
- 0.007% US Treasury bonds
- 35% Gold
Russia exports <1% to the US. Russia is a net exporter
This makes them protected from US sovereign risk (USD devaluation) & trade risk
(re)monetization of gold is already in progress
central banks have been consistently buying gold for many years
this is especially true for Russia & China
Over 10 years the Russian Central Bank has increased gold holdings by x4.5
🇷🇺 Gold is now 35% of all international reserves held by Russia 🤯
🇺🇸 Comparatively, for USA the number is 5%
This is why Russia and Ruble have been so resilient to sanctions
central bank balance sheets are an underrated resource for understanding the global liquidity moves
if you're following my posts - you already know that
rising US bond yields, ruble & gold
falling USD
i've been warning about it for months
90's style data = massive alpha 😂⬇️
central banks will continue to buy gold
you'll be able to confirm that in their upcoming balance sheets reports. pay special attention to China & Russia
enjoy the dip, because smart money is!
central banks will continue to buy gold
you'll be able to confirm that in their upcoming balance sheets reports. pay special attention to China & Russia
enjoy the dip, because smart money is!
The Ruble thesis remains valid
Up ≈13% on the USD in the past quarter
🚨 Ruble is up 30% on USD 2025 YTD
82-68 is a strong support - including pre-Ukraine war liquidity
A small pullback is very likely to happen, but in the medium-long term it's heading towards the 68
Once sanctions are dropped by US & EU - RUB will skyrocket
🇷🇺 Russian Central Bank currently has interest rates at 21%
Yet the yield on a 10Y bond is 15.6%
I've previously written that the market is both, pricing in upcoming low(er) rates & paying a premium to stay in Ruble
Today, I found the targets for 2025 & 2026
🇷🇺 Budget deficit financing through the National Reserve Fund instead of bond issuance is one of the reasons why Ruble and the Russian bond yields have been doing so good
🇺🇸 $DXY is up - but not against $RUB 🇷🇺
Fundamentals speak louder than words
🇷🇺 Russia announced that they will cover their 2025 budget deficit not through the issuance of debt via government bonds, but via the National Reserve Fund - funded by natural resource surpluses
👉 Good news for the Ruble, of course
👉 Bond yields went down - 10Y is down ≈-3%
