Silver price, volatility & gold ratio analysis
Short-form views on silver price moves, gold/silver ratio shifts and industrial demand trends.
Russia will buy Silver as a strategic reserve until 2027
I'm not speculating on anything, this comes directly from the Russian legislation, namely the Federal Law № 419-ФЗ (in Russian/cyrilic: Федеральный закон от 30 ноября 2024 г. № 419-ФЗ) whose budget tables for 2025–2027 allocate ≈51.5 billion rubles (≈$640M) per year as budget for the "acquisition of state reserves of precious metals and precious stones".
Silver falls explicitly under the definition of "precious metals". More specifically, under Russian framework law № 41-ФЗ the term "precious metals" ("драгоценные металлы") is explicitly defined as gold, silver, platinum and the metals of the platinum group.
In addition to the above, in the official explanatory note (пояснительная записка) to the draft of Federal Law № 419-ФЗ the Russian Ministry of Finance explicitly states that the plan is to acquire refined gold, refined silver, refined platinum and refined palladium for strategic goals. More specifically, the aim is to increase the share of "highly liquid valuables" in the State Fund of Precious Metals and Precious Stones of the Russian Federation (Госфонд России).
As I've written earlier today, Silver will encounter corrections
These are all buying opportunities - as is the whole price range within current larger pullback. The price bottoms I written about remain unchanged. The uptrend will resume
The same is true for gold
My prediction on Silver's bottom was correct: ≈$43-45 ✅
The uptrend goes on. The price will encounter more corrections along the way, but the bottoms I described previously remain valid.
Like for gold, I would re-analyze critically all sources that were claiming that the bullrun for silver is over.
My prediction on Silver's bottom was correct: ≈$43-45 ✅
The uptrend goes on. The price will encounter more corrections along the way, but the bottoms I described previously remain valid.
Like for gold, I would re-analyze critically all sources that were claiming that the bullrun for silver is over.
silver could pullback to ≈$40 before continuing its uptrend
this represents a ≈27% correction from the top
this is the lowest possible bottom for this move - it probably won't go this low. if it does, the move will happen fast, so have your buy limit orders ready. next week is FOMC interest rate decision. the Fed will cut the rates by another 25bps, and other things equal - it's positive price pressure for silver
if the price breaks below $47, it will likely fall closer to $45. expect a stronger support in the $43-45 area
overall, any prices in the vicinity of September 15th 2025 prices is a GREAT buying opportunity
* keep in mind the total 75 bps interest rate cut by the Fed this year is already in progress of being priced in - the market doesn't wait for the official announcement. this is one of the reasons why you had so much upside price volatility in the last month
My prediction on gold's bottom was correct: ≈$3900 ✅
You can direct anyone who is saying that gold and silver have topped to my posts.
If you think that gold and silver have topped - I'm really curious to hear your thesis. I've laid mine out extensively in prior writings.
GOLD: look for rejection at ≈$4155
if gold's price get rejected at that price level again - you'll likely see the fall to ≈$3900 target I described in my previous post
it's a good idea to have the limit buy orders ready 😄
My article on how all reserve currencies started on a gold and/or silver standard: https://illya.sh/threads/all-reserve-currencies-achieved-reserve-status-under-gold-or
My article on Gold vs Bitcoin, and how Bitcoin needs Gold, but Gold doesn't need Bitcoin: https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-needs-gold-gold-doesnt-need-bitcoin.html
and gold is up over 50% since January 20th 😄
silver is up over 60%
2025 is a fun year!
gold and silver miners
gold and silver miners
gold and silver miners
gold and silver miners
gold and silver miners
gold and silver miners
gold and silver miners
don't forget to set your limit buy orders
maximum bottom is around early September 2025 prices
it's getting closer
silver could pullback to ≈$40 before continuing its uptrend
this represents a ≈27% correction from the top
this is the lowest possible bottom for this move - it probably won't go this low. if it does, the move will happen fast, so have your buy limit orders ready. next week is FOMC interest rate decision. the Fed will cut the rates by another 25bps, and other things equal - it's positive price pressure for silver
if the price breaks below $47, it will likely fall closer to $45. expect a stronger support in the $43-45 area
overall, any prices in the vicinity of September 15th 2025 prices is a GREAT buying opportunity
* keep in mind the total 75 bps interest rate cut by the Fed this year is already in progress of being priced in - the market doesn't wait for the official announcement. this is one of the reasons why you had so much upside price volatility in the last month
1 month ago I wrote that silver could extend its current move to ≈60% from the ≈$34.5 price level
silver topped exactly there at ≈$54.5
now my next notes:
treat the pullback and any price consolidation action as a buying opportunity
during the next 6 months long positions entered in this area will be in profit. likely sooner, but 180 days provides a higher confidence timeline
1 month ago I wrote that silver could extend its current move to ≈60% from the ≈$34.5 price level
silver topped exactly there at ≈$54.5
now my next notes:
treat the pullback and any price consolidation action as a buying opportunity
during the next 6 months long positions entered in this area will be in profit. likely sooner, but 180 days provides a higher confidence timeline
silver's current move is already up >25%. it's better to have a pullback somewhere around the current level
it can move up even further, extending the total move to ≈60%, but then you’ll get a larger and longer lasting pull back
when silver moves in smaller increments, it has shorter-lasting consolidations/pullbacks. so this is what i mean by "better"
the promised gold & silver sale is here
if you didn't set your limit buy orders for silver, gold & miners - it's not too late yet
currently in late-September price ranges for many. it's also a good idea to position some buy targets below the current price levels
keep watching the gold price - it's the main driver for all
FOMC meeting is next week
⏰ don't forget to setup your buy limit orders for gold, silver and their miners
⏰ don't forget to setup your buy limit orders for gold, silver and their miners
hope you enjoyed Friday's gold, silver & miners sell-off
now await for the markets to re-open
it begins in a few hours 👀
hope you enjoyed Friday's gold, silver & miners sell-off
now await for the markets to re-open
it begins in a few hours 👀
now crypto twitter seems to think that gold & silver have topped 😂
i don't think CT understands what gold & silver are
we are approaching a local top for silver and gold according to my market vibe meter
usually i'd write a longer post with an explanation & technicals, but today i'm writing of off vibes 😄
my twitter/x feed has been filled with so much euphoria regarding silver & gold that it starts to resemble those accounts which constantly promote Bitcoin
you also have to contextualize how extended gold and silver's moves have been. the graph shows monthly candles
this isn't a bearish post on gold though - still expecting $4000/oz in November 2025 😄
no, "The West" is not manipulating gold and silver prices
silver and gold had retracements many times before, but I guess when it falls on Chinese holidays it becomes "western manipulation"?
≈32% of global gold demand in 2025 comes from China (estimate for jewelry + bar & coin). China is a major buyer of gold - so a lot of demand there
a more reasonable explanation is a demand dip, due to the holiday in PRC. also the US government shutdown. although I agree the idea of a magic red button saying DUMP GOLD located somewhere in the west is more exciting 😄
it's also not clear what would be the purpose of manipulating the price of gold down, as that would be benefiting China - they can buy it cheaper!
PBoC has been buying gold for years, and they will continue to do so. PBoC doesn't announce targets publicly - and they're flexible on their purchases, so again, lowering the gold price would likely allow them to buy it at a cheaper price
and there you go 😄
once the short-term suport line was broken, silver's price fell down to another support
silver's current short-term support line is in green
it will be touched soon
watch it closely!
silver's current short-term support line is in green
it will be touched soon
watch it closely!
even if silver goes down to $30/oz it will still be in an uptrend 🤯
(weekly chart)
in a 6 months timeline, gold's current price dip is a buying opportunity
(silver) a breakdown below the bottom orange line will likely push the price further down, at least to ≈$43.35
so now, watch the orange trend line/triangle 👀
1h candles
silver's key short-term trend support is the green light from the chart
we can only talk about potential pullbacks or consolidations once it's broken
watch it closely 👀
silver and gold move differently, which why I generally refrain from referring to these commodities in conjunction, even though a lot of what I write about gold also applies to silver
both, gold and silver are currently great investments, but they exhibit a different risk profile
silver is a lot more volatile, meaning its moves are amplified in both directions
if you’re planning to hold in the treasury/balance sheet it can play a big difference, as you’ll generally be less liquid with your silver holdings - in the sense that you may find it in a significant pullback from a previous high if you try to liquidate it ad-hoc, especially short-term
silver's key short-term trend support is the green light from the chart
we can only talk about potential pullbacks or consolidations once it's broken
watch it closely 👀
expect silver to correct down by ≈18%
if the correction starts at the current level, that would bring the price down to ≈$36.22
but you may want to place orders above if you want to enter, somewhere from $37.5
silver's current move is already up >25%. it's better to have a pullback somewhere around the current level
it can move up even further, extending the total move to ≈60%, but then you’ll get a larger and longer lasting pull back
when silver moves in smaller increments, it has shorter-lasting consolidations/pullbacks. so this is what i mean by "better"
≈$39.6 is a great area to long silver during the pullback
similar to gold, there is also a strong support below, which will further fuel buying pressure
adapt the exact price to your ticker/derivative. chart below shows how to identify it (dashed line)
