Silver price, volatility & gold ratio analysis
Short-form views on silver price moves, gold/silver ratio shifts and industrial demand trends.
So silver didn't top for the cycle, 2011 didn't repeat and instead less than 2 weeks later it hit another all time high
Imagine my surprise π
More all time highs are coming and, as I've written before, you can safely ignore any calls for long-term top.
You can't find a top on chart without understanding what drives the price on that chart in the first place. Luckily for you - I've written a lot of explanations on that when it comes to gold and silver
Silver didn't even break its 4 hour trend support on the pullback and many are already calling that it has topped for the cycle π
The same X accounts that were telling you to buy the Bitcoin dip on October 1st 2025, are now telling you to sell Silver on December 31st 2025
Since October 1st:
βBitcoin down β40%
βSilver up β80%
Their silver top calls will age as well, as the Bitcoin dip calls earlier this year π
The markets gave you an early 2026 present in the form of a systemic commodity price correction - and it's up to you to take it or not
Happy 2026 π₯³
Silver didn't even break its 4 hour trend support on the pullback and many are already calling that it has topped for the cycle π
Silver is up β193% in 2025, but it only takes a β16% pullback for large finance accounts on X to suggest it has topped π
No, it's not the top for Silver yet and it's not hitting $50 this week
The current pullback in the price of silver & silver miners is a buying opportunity
Today's gold, silver and their miners sell-off is a buying opportunity
Treat it as an early new year's gift for 2026 π₯³
Russia will buy Silver as a strategic reserve until 2027
I'm not speculating on anything, this comes directly from the Russian legislation, namely the Federal Law β 419-Π€Π (in Russian/cyrilic: Π€Π΅Π΄Π΅ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΉ Π·Π°ΠΊΠΎΠ½ ΠΎΡ 30 Π½ΠΎΡΠ±ΡΡ 2024 Π³. β 419-Π€Π) whose budget tables for 2025β2027 allocate β51.5 billion rubles (β$640M) per year as budget for the "acquisition of state reserves of precious metals and precious stones".
Silver falls explicitly under the definition of "precious metals". More specifically, under Russian framework law β 41-Π€Π the term "precious metals" ("Π΄ΡΠ°Π³ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΠ΅ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠ°Π»Π»Ρ") is explicitly defined as gold, silver, platinum and the metals of the platinum group.
In addition to the above, in the official explanatory note (ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ½ΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½Π°Ρ Π·Π°ΠΏΠΈΡΠΊΠ°) to the draft of Federal Law β 419-Π€Π the Russian Ministry of Finance explicitly states that the plan is to acquire refined gold, refined silver, refined platinum and refined palladium for strategic goals. More specifically, the aim is to increase the share of "highly liquid valuables" in the State Fund of Precious Metals and Precious Stones of the Russian Federation (ΠΠΎΡΡΠΎΠ½Π΄ Π ΠΎΡΡΠΈΠΈ).
As I've written earlier today, Silver will encounter corrections
These are all buying opportunities - as is the whole price range within current larger pullback. The price bottoms I written about remain unchanged. The uptrend will resume
The same is true for gold
My prediction on Silver's bottom was correct: β$43-45 β
The uptrend goes on. The price will encounter more corrections along the way, but the bottoms I described previously remain valid.
Like for gold, I would re-analyze critically all sources that were claiming that the bullrun for silver is over.
My prediction on Silver's bottom was correct: β$43-45 β
The uptrend goes on. The price will encounter more corrections along the way, but the bottoms I described previously remain valid.
Like for gold, I would re-analyze critically all sources that were claiming that the bullrun for silver is over.
silver could pullback to β$40 before continuing its uptrend
this represents a β27% correction from the top
this is the lowest possible bottom for this move - it probably won't go this low. if it does, the move will happen fast, so have your buy limit orders ready. next week is FOMC interest rate decision. the Fed will cut the rates by another 25bps, and other things equal - it's positive price pressure for silver
if the price breaks below $47, it will likely fall closer to $45. expect a stronger support in the $43-45 area
overall, any prices in the vicinity of September 15th 2025 prices is a GREAT buying opportunity
* keep in mind the total 75 bps interest rate cut by the Fed this year is already in progress of being priced in - the market doesn't wait for the official announcement. this is one of the reasons why you had so much upside price volatility in the last month
My prediction on gold's bottom was correct: β$3900 β
You can direct anyone who is saying that gold and silver have topped to my posts.
If you think that gold and silver have topped - I'm really curious to hear your thesis. I've laid mine out extensively in prior writings.
GOLD: look for rejection at β$4155
if gold's price get rejected at that price level again - you'll likely see the fall to β$3900 target I described in my previous post
it's a good idea to have the limit buy orders ready π
My article on how all reserve currencies started on a gold and/or silver standard: https://illya.sh/threads/all-reserve-currencies-achieved-reserve-status-under-gold-or
My article on Gold vs Bitcoin, and how Bitcoin needs Gold, but Gold doesn't need Bitcoin: https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-needs-gold-gold-doesnt-need-bitcoin.html
and gold is up over 50% since January 20th π
silver is up over 60%
2025 is a fun year!
gold and silver miners
gold and silver miners
gold and silver miners
gold and silver miners
gold and silver miners
gold and silver miners
gold and silver miners
don't forget to set your limit buy orders
maximum bottom is around early September 2025 prices
it's getting closer
silver could pullback to β$40 before continuing its uptrend
this represents a β27% correction from the top
this is the lowest possible bottom for this move - it probably won't go this low. if it does, the move will happen fast, so have your buy limit orders ready. next week is FOMC interest rate decision. the Fed will cut the rates by another 25bps, and other things equal - it's positive price pressure for silver
if the price breaks below $47, it will likely fall closer to $45. expect a stronger support in the $43-45 area
overall, any prices in the vicinity of September 15th 2025 prices is a GREAT buying opportunity
* keep in mind the total 75 bps interest rate cut by the Fed this year is already in progress of being priced in - the market doesn't wait for the official announcement. this is one of the reasons why you had so much upside price volatility in the last month
1 month ago I wrote that silver could extend its current move to β60% from the β$34.5 price level
silver topped exactly there at β$54.5
now my next notes:
treat the pullback and any price consolidation action as a buying opportunity
during the next 6 months long positions entered in this area will be in profit. likely sooner, but 180 days provides a higher confidence timeline
1 month ago I wrote that silver could extend its current move to β60% from the β$34.5 price level
silver topped exactly there at β$54.5
now my next notes:
treat the pullback and any price consolidation action as a buying opportunity
during the next 6 months long positions entered in this area will be in profit. likely sooner, but 180 days provides a higher confidence timeline
silver's current move is already up >25%. it's better to have a pullback somewhere around the current level
it can move up even further, extending the total move to β60%, but then youβll get a larger and longer lasting pull back
when silver moves in smaller increments, it has shorter-lasting consolidations/pullbacks. so this is what i mean by "better"
the promised gold & silver sale is here
if you didn't set your limit buy orders for silver, gold & miners - it's not too late yet
currently in late-September price ranges for many. it's also a good idea to position some buy targets below the current price levels
keep watching the gold price - it's the main driver for all
FOMC meeting is next week
β° don't forget to setup your buy limit orders for gold, silver and their miners
β° don't forget to setup your buy limit orders for gold, silver and their miners
hope you enjoyed Friday's gold, silver & miners sell-off
now await for the markets to re-open
it begins in a few hours π
hope you enjoyed Friday's gold, silver & miners sell-off
now await for the markets to re-open
it begins in a few hours π
now crypto twitter seems to think that gold & silver have topped π
i don't think CT understands what gold & silver are
we are approaching a local top for silver and gold according to my market vibe meter
usually i'd write a longer post with an explanation & technicals, but today i'm writing of off vibes π
my twitter/x feed has been filled with so much euphoria regarding silver & gold that it starts to resemble those accounts which constantly promote Bitcoin
you also have to contextualize how extended gold and silver's moves have been. the graph shows monthly candles
this isn't a bearish post on gold though - still expecting $4000/oz in November 2025 π
no, "The West" is not manipulating gold and silver prices
silver and gold had retracements many times before, but I guess when it falls on Chinese holidays it becomes "western manipulation"?
β32% of global gold demand in 2025 comes from China (estimate for jewelry + bar & coin). China is a major buyer of gold - so a lot of demand there
a more reasonable explanation is a demand dip, due to the holiday in PRC. also the US government shutdown. although I agree the idea of a magic red button saying DUMP GOLD located somewhere in the west is more exciting π
it's also not clear what would be the purpose of manipulating the price of gold down, as that would be benefiting China - they can buy it cheaper!
PBoC has been buying gold for years, and they will continue to do so. PBoC doesn't announce targets publicly - and they're flexible on their purchases, so again, lowering the gold price would likely allow them to buy it at a cheaper price
and there you go π
once the short-term suport line was broken, silver's price fell down to another support
silver's current short-term support line is in green
it will be touched soon
watch it closely!
silver's current short-term support line is in green
it will be touched soon
watch it closely!
even if silver goes down to $30/oz it will still be in an uptrend π€―
(weekly chart)
in a 6 months timeline, gold's current price dip is a buying opportunity
(silver) a breakdown below the bottom orange line will likely push the price further down, at least to β$43.35
so now, watch the orange trend line/triangle π
1h candles
silver's key short-term trend support is the green light from the chart
we can only talk about potential pullbacks or consolidations once it's broken
watch it closely π
