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Long-form writing on macro, market structure, commodities, Bitcoin, crypto markets, machine learning, and AI systems.
lower interest rates means less attractive repo and deposit rates, thus expect more capital movement into assets, as the yields on MMF/deposits become less attractive
$4000/oz gold by the end of 2025? yes, very much possible, but also beware of consolidation ranges which may extend for months
watch the Fed's projection dot plot, not the Fed Funds rate
reducing the cost of capital by 25bps wouldn't affect mortgage that much - as it doesn't eliminate the existing risk in the market (i.e. existing mortgages)
there will NOT be a 50 bps rate cut
it's not just the Fed, the ECB is also lowering rates into higher inflation
🤯 Gold may just go straight to $3500 in the next few hours #7
ECB's legal framework forbids the use of gold revaluation proceeds to pay expenses or operating losses
🇪🇺 ECB gained €10.5B on gold from 2023 to 2024
gold is a great asset to hold for the next 5 years
🇪🇺 The best countermeasure that EU can take is swapping US securities for Gold
real estate is a great asset because banks lend ≈75% of its value
EU real estate prices will continue to increase
gold revaluation will NOT solve the US debt problem
91% of central banks are working on CBDCs, but not on a public blockchain
wholesale CBDC vs retail CBDC - what's the difference?
ECB plans to limit the amount of digital Euro CBDC a wallet can hold
finance has A LOT to learn from engineering - especially in terms or standardization 😭
repo rates increase and borrowing decreases in quarter-ends
when a bank buys an asset from a non-bank it creates broad money
it's NOT yet the top of the cycle for equities, cryptocurrencies and other risk assets. here’s why
here's what yield spreads are saying about Bitcoin
there should be more blockchains running over mesh technologies like LoRA
yield spreads between US Treasuries and riskier bonds mirror the price of Bitcoin
market makers and other dealers are also subject to regulatory balance sheet constraints