Illya Gerasymchuk profile photo
Illya Gerasymchuk
Financial & Software Engineer

Threads / Articles

Long-form writing on macro, market structure, commodities, Bitcoin, crypto markets, machine learning, and AI systems.

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lower interest rates means less attractive repo and deposit rates, thus expect more capital movement into assets, as the yields on MMF/deposits become less attractive
Started: 2025-09-21 Updated: 2025-09-21 1 thoughts
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$4000/oz gold by the end of 2025? yes, very much possible, but also beware of consolidation ranges which may extend for months
Started: 2025-09-20 Updated: 2025-09-20 1 thoughts
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watch the Fed's projection dot plot, not the Fed Funds rate
Started: 2025-09-17 Updated: 2025-09-20 8 thoughts
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reducing the cost of capital by 25bps wouldn't affect mortgage that much - as it doesn't eliminate the existing risk in the market (i.e. existing mortgages)
Started: 2025-09-19 Updated: 2025-09-19 12 thoughts
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there will NOT be a 50 bps rate cut
Started: 2025-09-17 Updated: 2025-09-17 2 thoughts
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it's not just the Fed, the ECB is also lowering rates into higher inflation
Started: 2025-09-17 Updated: 2025-09-17 3 thoughts
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🤯 Gold may just go straight to $3500 in the next few hours #7
Started: 2025-06-13 Updated: 2025-09-16 18 thoughts
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ECB's legal framework forbids the use of gold revaluation proceeds to pay expenses or operating losses
Started: 2025-09-16 Updated: 2025-09-16 5 thoughts
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🇪🇺 ECB gained €10.5B on gold from 2023 to 2024
Started: 2025-09-15 Updated: 2025-09-15 2 thoughts
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gold is a great asset to hold for the next 5 years
Started: 2025-09-14 Updated: 2025-09-15 5 thoughts
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🇪🇺 The best countermeasure that EU can take is swapping US securities for Gold
Started: 2025-04-03 Updated: 2025-09-14 2 thoughts
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real estate is a great asset because banks lend ≈75% of its value
Started: 2025-09-12 Updated: 2025-09-13 8 thoughts
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EU real estate prices will continue to increase
Started: 2025-09-07 Updated: 2025-09-07 3 thoughts
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gold revaluation will NOT solve the US debt problem
Started: 2025-09-04 Updated: 2025-09-06 21 thoughts
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91% of central banks are working on CBDCs, but not on a public blockchain
Started: 2025-08-28 Updated: 2025-08-28 5 thoughts
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wholesale CBDC vs retail CBDC - what's the difference?
Started: 2025-08-27 Updated: 2025-08-27 5 thoughts
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ECB plans to limit the amount of digital Euro CBDC a wallet can hold
Started: 2025-08-25 Updated: 2025-08-26 2 thoughts
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finance has A LOT to learn from engineering - especially in terms or standardization 😭
Started: 2025-08-24 Updated: 2025-08-24 2 thoughts
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repo rates increase and borrowing decreases in quarter-ends
Started: 2025-08-22 Updated: 2025-08-23 6 thoughts
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when a bank buys an asset from a non-bank it creates broad money
Started: 2025-08-22 Updated: 2025-08-22 11 thoughts
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it's NOT yet the top of the cycle for equities, cryptocurrencies and other risk assets. here’s why
Started: 2025-08-20 Updated: 2025-08-20 12 thoughts
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here's what yield spreads are saying about Bitcoin
Started: 2025-08-19 Updated: 2025-08-19 12 thoughts
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there should be more blockchains running over mesh technologies like LoRA
Started: 2025-08-19 Updated: 2025-08-19 4 thoughts
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yield spreads between US Treasuries and riskier bonds mirror the price of Bitcoin
Started: 2025-08-18 Updated: 2025-08-18 6 thoughts
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market makers and other dealers are also subject to regulatory balance sheet constraints
Started: 2025-08-17 Updated: 2025-08-17 4 thoughts