Illya Gerasymchuk profile photo
Illya Gerasymchuk
Financial & Software Engineer

Coffee outperformed Gold in the last 5 years

Would it be sound to conclude that coffee beans are better money and investment than gold, and that Central Banks should hold coffee & its derivatives in reserve assets?

Bitcoin has less than 20 years of price action, and it started trading at a negligent price. Gold has been money for over 5000 years and its earliest recorded price per ounce is of โ‰ˆ100 days of labor

A better question is whether Bitcoin will continue to consistently outperform gold over the next 20 years. *Consistency* is key - it must be at least a store of value, including shorter-term. If you get caught in the typical >50% price drops - you may pay a high opportunity cost.

It's not just whether Bitcoin will increase more in price than gold in the next 20 years, but also how severe and long-lasting Bitcoin's corrections are.

Imagine you buy Bitcoin today and it goes into a bear market with a significant value loss in the next 4 years. In those 4 years - many investment opportunities may arise, such as in real estate, equities, commodities or bonds. If your capital is locked in Bitcoin throughout that period - that's an opportunity cost.

Gold doesn't come with those shortcomings. There is a reason why all world reserve currencies started on a gold and/or silver standards.

There is no free lunch in the markets. Higher return is almost unanimously correlated with higher risk. Quantitatively Bitcoin is high risk- it's not a matter of opinion.

This doesn't mean that Bitcoin is a bad idea, but it also doesn't mean that Bitcoin is a better idea than gold. It does, however mean, that Bitcoin isn't a replacement for gold.

And now you understand what makes gold so special. You don't have to believe me - believe centuries of price action and human history.

Would it be sound to conclude that coffee beans are better money and investment than gold, and that Central Banks should hold coffee & its d
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