⬇️ My Thoughts ⬇️
the FED left the interest rates unchanged - at the 4.25%-4.50% target while they communicated that previously - so it's no surprise - understanding how they achieve that level of short-term rates means understanding the important central bank in the world 🏦 so i'll explain it!
if you can actually take a loan of €10m - just get a bunch of properties in Portugal (I see the flag 🇵🇹😄) and rent them out you'll be able to comfortably get ≈50 properties - yielding you around €50K MRR plus all of the equity and appreciation that you're earning
🇺🇸🇮🇳 US imports for India account for mere 2.7% of its total imports - only $87 billion you can see how selective and small the tariff applications are - and even those will eventually be dropped nothing about China 🇨🇳 👀 fully consistent with what I wrote 2 weeks ago
i understand that these are secondary tariffs, but there is a grand total of 0% chance of that going in action for any substancial amount of time 🇨🇳 China is Russia's main trading partner. do you really think the US economy can sustain 100% tariffs on their main import source?
🚨🛢️aaand crude oil is trading above $70 told you over a month ago that more upside is to come 😉 NOTE: it's up ≈8% over the past 5 days while the US dollar index is up over 2% - so it's more in real terms scroll back to my June posts to know what's coming next
'The market is never wrong' A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything & prices accordingly - even before the official news Okay. Now wait & watch crude oil & gold raise up even more in price very soon This isn't a joke
don't learn to code - there is AI don't learn to drive - there is AI don't learn to read - there is AI don't learn to write - there is AI don't learn to speak - there is AI … don't learn - there is AI follow me for more terrible advice 😂
🇷🇺 oil up is GOOD news for Russia & Ruble every surplus above $60/barrel of Urals oil increases FX reserves in NWF (Yuan or gold) - an interplay between MoF and CBR exporters pay taxes in Ruble - so higher buying pressure mark my words: 👉 you'll see USD/RUB exchange rate fall
🚨🛢️ crude oil up to almost $70 and this while the US dollar index is also up over a month and a half ago I told you that it's going to resume the uptrend - and this thesis has been confirmed again and again wait & watch what comes next - I wrote about that as well 😁
🚨🛢️ crude oil up to almost $70 and this while the US dollar index is also up over a month and a half ago I told you that it's going to resume the uptrend - and this thesis has been confirmed again and again wait & watch what comes next - I wrote about that as well 😁
🛢️ crude oil price is heading back up - just like I wrote earlier significant geopolitical events introduce volatility - but my thesis on increasing oil, gold & other precious metals + commodities has little to do with that 👉 it's about global liquidity flows & bond markets
you can imagine how much I'm excited to read this chapter 🤩 Michael Howell (@crossbordercap) really cooked with this one 🔥 highly technical, quantitative and focused on data interpretation, not politics (not sure about copyright so blurred the image)
Trump administration is China's best friend 🇺🇸❤️🇨🇳 not only China gets to accumulate gold, attract global market share, but also massively benefit from the crypto bubble China has HUGE exposure (and control) to Bitcoin. US does the work, while China benefits. sounds familiar🤷♀️
🇷🇺 3 months of Ruble gains against USD erased in 5 days 😄 but also contextualize it with the overall increase in the US Dollar Index over the past 2 days 👋 hello, volatility
3 days ago the Russian Central Bank cut down the key interest rate by 200bp down to 18% the only way from here is further down - and if you look at the Russian bond yields that's exactly what they're telling but honestly you don't need advanced quant to reach this conclusion 😂
🚨 this doesn't mean that you shouldn't invest into US stocks or that you can't make money there yes, it's a bubble - but that's the state of the global financial system. some areas are less of a bubble than others also, US economy won't crash overnight like many predict here
🇨🇳 i guess the "China just steals western technologies" theory goes down the drain 🥱 👉 notice how there are no billion-dollar valuations on mere promises that's something important that people need to understand about US equity markets - most valuations are fictitious
🇨🇳 i guess the "China just steals western technologies" theory goes down the drain 🥱 👉 notice how there are no billion-dollar valuations on mere promises that's something important that people need to understand about US equity markets - most valuations are fictitious
🇪🇺 in the EU, Bitcoin still hasn't reached a new all time high but a little bit more depreciation of EUR against USD can finally bring the FIAT party to the Europeans as well 😂 although in these cases being late to the party is better
🇷🇺 Bank of Russia explicitly states 12-13% as the average target key interest rate for 2026 and that's exactly what the bond market is pricing in that's what i mean by this not requiring advanced quantitative or technical analysis 😄 multiple factors in play
3 days ago the Russian Central Bank cut down the key interest rate by 200bp down to 18% the only way from here is further down - and if you look at the Russian bond yields that's exactly what they're telling but honestly you don't need advanced quant to reach this conclusion 😂
3 days ago the Russian Central Bank cut down the key interest rate by 200bp down to 18% the only way from here is further down - and if you look at the Russian bond yields that's exactly what they're telling but honestly you don't need advanced quant to reach this conclusion 😂
🇷🇺 and indeed Bank of Russia cuts interest rates down to 20% 3 months ago I wrote about how the Russian bond market was pricing in those cuts a month ago the prediction materialized ✅
🇷🇺 Russian 3Y bond yield is down ≈20% over the last 3 months 😳 of course - this isn't a surprise to you if you've been following my posts. i wrote extensively about this the biggest reason behind the sharp drop today is the recent 200bp key interest rate cut down to 18%
not all bonds are the same 🇺🇸🇯🇵🇪🇺🇷🇺 while US, EU & Japan yields are soaring 📈 Russian bond yields are falling 📉 🇷🇺 10Y bond yield down 8% since March just like i wrote more than 3 months ago check my posts for a detailed expiation & what's coming next 👇
btw the gold depreciation today is due to the appreciation of USD
consider this gold pullback as a free gift to further extend your long position 🥳
when your favorite altcoin goes up in price soon remember one thing: 👉 it likely has to do more with liquidity flows than an increase in the inherent value of your preferred project rule of thumb: if everything is systemically up - it's liquidity flows 😄
consider this gold pullback as a free gift to further extend your long position 🥳
gold is currently the only asset whose leveraged long position can be hedged by adding more to the long on pullbacks 😄 * one of the only - and ofc technically that's not a hedge - but you can read my previous posts to understand what I mean substance over matter 😉
👉 Digital Money ≠ E-Money 👈 🏦 Digital Money - claim on central bank money recorded on a public ledger. A form of public money. No credit risk. Think CBDC 💳 E-Money - claim on commercial bank money. A form of private money. Has credit risk. Think PayPal balance
balance sheet capacity is defined by regulations in a world dominated by debt refinancing rather than new credit issuance - the ability to take on more assets and liabilities is more important than interest rates 👉 debt rollover capacity is more important than cost of capital
NOTE: Basel III is legally non-binding so for a step 2 you'd want to look into the transposed legislations 🇪🇺 EU: Capital Requirements Regulation & Capital Requirements Directive 🇺🇸 USA: split throughout Code of Federal Regulations (just ask ChatGPT/LLM & read from there 😄)
🇺🇸🤝🇨🇳 US/China tariffs paused for another 90 days if you read my post from two weeks ago - this isn't a surprise to you once again - the US is dependent on China financially, economically & infrastructurally threats of 100% tariffs against Russia will NOT materialize 🇷🇺
i understand that these are secondary tariffs, but there is a grand total of 0% chance of that going in action for any substancial amount of time 🇨🇳 China is Russia's main trading partner. do you really think the US economy can sustain 100% tariffs on their main import source?
NOTE: Basel III is legally non-binding so for a step 2 you'd want to look into the transposed legislations 🇪🇺 EU: Capital Requirements Regulation & Capital Requirements Directive 🇺🇸 USA: split throughout Code of Federal Regulations (just ask ChatGPT/LLM & read from there 😄)
start by asking ChatGPT or another LLM with the Basel III PDF(s) attached read from there, iterate with questions and validate your understanding you'll probably need to come back to it a few times don't overthink it, a basic prompt like this one is sufficient 👇
start by asking ChatGPT or another LLM with the Basel III PDF(s) attached read from there, iterate with questions and validate your understanding you'll probably need to come back to it a few times don't overthink it, a basic prompt like this one is sufficient 👇
regulations may sound boring - but they're crucial to understand money, liquidity and financial system as a whole they become fun once contextualized - and govern the rules of credit i'd suggest starting with Basel III - namely liquidity coverage ratio & capital ratio
regulations may sound boring - but they're crucial to understand money, liquidity and financial system as a whole they become fun once contextualized - and govern the rules of credit i'd suggest starting with Basel III - namely liquidity coverage ratio & capital ratio