⬇️ My Thoughts ⬇️
Basel framework treats "capital" as a funding source that can absorb losses, rather than an owned asset
assets are funded by liabilities and equity, so assets are not a funding source
Tier 1 capital is the first-line of losses absorption for a bank
so gold can't be in "Tier"
🚨🏦 claims that gold is a Tier 1 asset under Basel III are FALSE:
1. gold is NOT a Tier capital under Basel - it's on the liability, not asset side
2. gold had 0% risk weight since Basel I (no haircut)
3. gold is still NOT considered a high quality liquid asset (HQLA)
🏦 under Basel III gold is subject additional funding requirements
there's a 85% required stable funding (RSF) factor on gold under net stable funding ratio (NSFR)
so for every $1B of gold that a bank holds - $850M must be funded with longer term retail or wholesale funding
🚨🏦 claims that gold is a Tier 1 asset under Basel III are FALSE:
1. gold is NOT a Tier capital under Basel - it's on the liability, not asset side
2. gold had 0% risk weight since Basel I (no haircut)
3. gold is still NOT considered a high quality liquid asset (HQLA)
🚨🏦 claims that gold is a Tier 1 asset under Basel III are FALSE:
1. gold is NOT a Tier capital under Basel - it's on the liability, not asset side
2. gold had 0% risk weight since Basel I (no haircut)
3. gold is still NOT considered a high quality liquid asset (HQLA)
volatility is at best - a part of a the risk
an increase in volatility doesn't necessarily mean an increase in risk
e.g.:
shortages in global liquidity put mismatched liabilities at a loss. safe assets raise in price
the high risk already existed while there was low volatility
pre-market tesla is already down to a weekly support back from July 2023
the narrative that equities price is mainly linked with EBIDTA or other revenue/profit metrics is false
it's all about where the credit flows
check the correlation between FED swap line volumes and Bitcoin price
large spikes in swap volume trigger an uptrend in Bitcoin
understanding these global liquidity flows helps to visualize them as a part of the larger system and understand where it's likely to move next
new currency in circulation is just one of the side-effects
and that transition is neither direct, nor instant
before these funds effectively become new currency, they flow into financial markets - that's why you see the stock market going up first
the same for risky assets
new currency in circulation is just one of the side-effects
and that transition is neither direct, nor instant
before these funds effectively become new currency, they flow into financial markets - that's why you see the stock market going up first
the same for risky assets
FED swap line operations reach ≈$600 bn
while the swaps are closed/repaid in less than a year, ≈80% of the repayment comes from newly issued wholesale debt
thus, ≈80% of the swap volume eventually becomes new currency in circulation
and then you wonder about inflation 😄
FED swap line operations reach ≈$600 bn
while the swaps are closed/repaid in less than a year, ≈80% of the repayment comes from newly issued wholesale debt
thus, ≈80% of the swap volume eventually becomes new currency in circulation
and then you wonder about inflation 😄
💧FED swap lines = infinite liquidity pool
👉 here's how:
1️⃣ central banks exchange their foreign currency for USD, 7-80 days later, they reverse the exchange at the same rate + fee
2️⃣ central banks then lend these new USD to commercial banks
thus, USD demand is met
💧FED swap lines = infinite liquidity pool
👉 here's how:
1️⃣ central banks exchange their foreign currency for USD, 7-80 days later, they reverse the exchange at the same rate + fee
2️⃣ central banks then lend these new USD to commercial banks
thus, USD demand is met
💬 each comment is automatically saved
with a 7-day expiration - all locally in user storage
so essentially an automatic draft
try it yourself: go to one of my posts/thoughts, press/click comment emoji, write the comment, close the tab. the comment will be there on re-open
🚀 added stateless comments on posts
i wanted to add comments to my statically-generated thoughts site, but didn't want to depend on storage or server-side logic
solution: send comments via e-mail, X/twitter or telegram
demo in reply ⬇️
🚀 added stateless comments on posts
i wanted to add comments to my statically-generated thoughts site, but didn't want to depend on storage or server-side logic
solution: send comments via e-mail, X/twitter or telegram
demo in reply ⬇️
central bank balance sheets are an underrated resource for understanding the global liquidity moves
if you're following my posts - you already know that
rising US bond yields, ruble & gold
falling USD
i've been warning about it for months
90's style data = massive alpha 😂⬇️
central banks will continue to buy gold
you'll be able to confirm that in their upcoming balance sheets reports. pay special attention to China & Russia
enjoy the dip, because smart money is!
beware that a lot of accounts with massive leverage trades are paid advertisements
wether it's by the exchange or larger parts of the industry. don't forget that smart money needs a counterparty 😉
a lot of them, specially the larger are definitely hedging behind the scenes
expected? yes ✅
normal? no ❌
gold shouldn't be up 50% in a year
and you shouldn't ignore what that means
i wrote this back in 2013. as the current highs are consolidated - it will move up further
maybe when you're reading this the above has already played out 😄
If you only understood how cheap gold is now. To put it in perspective, its current FIAT price only reflects inflation prior to 2011 🤯
Any direct or indirect inflation following that time period has not yet been accounted for
You don't have to trust me. Trust the price action
central banks will continue to buy gold
you'll be able to confirm that in their upcoming balance sheets reports. pay special attention to China & Russia
enjoy the dip, because smart money is!
USD decline prediction was spot-on ✅
2 months later and US dollar index just bounced off from 97
the past 6 months have been a downtrend for $DXY
🚨US Dollar Index going to ≈98.3
Current price is a strong monthly level
The next destination is low 98's
🚀 added a share action to every post
so now you can press to open the share dialog
it only shares the url, but the preview image of the URL contains the post/thought text
definitely plan to open-source this at some point (the repo just needs some cleanup)
example in reply ⬇️
reverse repurchase agreement is just the other side (seller) side of a repurchase agreement (buyer)
repurchaser provides collateral and receives a loan
reverse repurchaser receives the collateral and issues a loan
at maturity the repurchaser repurchases the collateral
initial raise, now followed by a pullback
large geopolitical events do such moves, however don't you for a minute think that the thesis is now invalidated 😄
both of these commodities will continue their uptrend
'The market is never wrong'
A lot of big accounts posting about how the market knows everything & prices accordingly - even before the official news
Okay.
Now wait & watch crude oil & gold raise up even more in price very soon
This isn't a joke
and this is how the gold market opened
green candle straight to $3400 🚀
gold futures market opens in 2 mins!!
are you ready?
gold futures market opens in 2 mins!!
are you ready?
soooo… new gold ATH next week?
look at gold's price chart with weekly candles - it's unbelievable 🤯
gold is going up like a risky asset - but it in fact is a reflection of risk
now it looks like a breakout from another consolidation phase 📈
now it's official 😄
ethereum price fell to $2180 📉
interestingly, the majority sentiment of large following X accounts seemed to be bullish
please note, I wrote the original post more than a week ago - back then the market sentiment was extremely bullish
While Ethereum has built a strong-ish support in the current area, it currently looks more likely to fall towards the ≈$2180 monthly support
Do not underestimate what the new all time highs in gold are telling you
UN's Model Double Taxation Convention has a clear key benefit over OCED's
since UN's model gives more taxing rights for the source state - it's the one that makes sense for developing economies
imagine a developed nation benefiting from cheaper labor in the source state - who created the workforce in the first place, and having their tax base eroded in favor of resident state
so the resident state would get double benefit:
1️⃣ cheaper labor
2️⃣ higher tax income for the government
on the other hand you could argue for OCED's model favoring a higher volume of investment, thus effectively distributing more wages throughout the economy. this channels the funds more directly to the consumers, which would end up increasing their purchasing power more than if it had to go through the government first
but then again, you must remember the global market is NOT a free market economy. existing legislation overall favors more developed countries, so protective measures for developing countries in the international tax law may make a lot of sense
btw here I'm looking at PAXG (Paxos Gold) token
essentially, a 1:1 gold-backed ERC-20 token
there is also XAUT from Tether
whenever TradFi markets are closed - it's your go-to for alpha insights
can't believe that in 2025 there is still such a thing as market closure 🤯
gold's behavior during the current 'bullrun' has been consistently to flip previous week's resistance to new support
in the chart - the green vertical lines are weekly levels
gold's current price action suggests it's flipping another resistance for support
Road to $3500 🚀
gold's behavior during the current 'bullrun' has been consistently to flip previous week's resistance to new support
in the chart - the green vertical lines are weekly levels
gold's current price action suggests it's flipping another resistance for support
Road to $3500 🚀
all eyes on gold futures 👀
COMEX gold futures trading open in 13h
markets are closed now, but blockchain never sleeps
on-chain gold-backed token futures may give you a heads-up - they're up ≈1.3% from yesterday
interesting to see gold moves after open
spoiler: higher price
