⬇️ My Thoughts ⬇️
duration matching protects solvency and liquidity when yields shift assets are financed by liabilities and equity. financial institutions like banks usually have small equity - so liabilities finance assets
re-iterating on the 1.5 month old thread 😄 inflation is still here to stay and gold is still yet to do something - but it sure will
although gold already did a lot since this post - this is just the beginning ✨ persistent high inflation is here to stay FIAT currencies will continue to devalue, specially with the massive government debit refinancing & further interest rate cuts
i also wrote a thread explaining the importance of USD-denominated government debt for short-term funding/credit markets remember that most of credit is issued to refinance existing debt and not for new financing you can read it here: https://illya.sh/threads/@1751726431-1
i wrote about how reverse repurchase agreements work and their importance in the global financial system in this thread: https://illya.sh/threads/@1751561045-2
bitcoin went up 6% from the weekly support line until the end of this month, bitcoin will either see a new all time high or retest the ≈$0.1095M support this is the daily timescale of the same chart - the blue and red lines are weekly, green is daily just a quick check-up
Bitcoin is still in a weekly uptrend it must either go up or down to ≈$109500 - a strong weekly support two factors in play here: 1️⃣ USD index - inverse correlation 2️⃣ Global liquidity- correlation keep watching central bank's open market operations & balance sheets
on a weekly timeframe a stronger future support is developing for gold within the red box it's a part of a multi-month uptrend
you can see how accurately gold price has been respecting the trend lines and channels you've seen in my graphs for months now 😄 gold tariffs ping-pong introduced volatility, but like i wrote in my other posts - its upside price pressure a new all time-high will arrive
i wrote about how reverse repurchase agreements work and their importance in the global financial system in this thread: https://illya.sh/threads/@1751561045-2
the US will be able to sustain their debt financing for as long as US government debt and US dollar dominate in demand for as long as USD is the reserve currency - the US can finance its debt in other words, as long as there's enough buyers and users - it's all good! 😁
the US will be able to sustain their debt financing for as long as US government debt and US dollar dominate in demand for as long as USD is the reserve currency - the US can finance its debt in other words, as long as there's enough buyers and users - it's all good! 😁
debt includes all form, tenor and issuers of USD-denominated debt are included, both public and private examples: US Treasuries, corporate bonds, commercial bank credit, epos, FX swaps, central-bank lines
debt includes all form, tenor and issuers of USD-denominated debt are included, both public and private examples: US Treasuries, corporate bonds, commercial bank credit, epos, FX swaps, central-bank lines
intermediation started with paper records, physical bank counters and now has mostly moved to technological - via computer systems
intermediation started with paper records, physical bank counters and now has mostly moved to technological - via computer systems
while hybrid intermediation systems don’t strictly need to be technological - in practice they vastly are as most of financial activity happens through computer and information systems
while hybrid intermediation systems don’t strictly need to be technological - in practice they vastly are as most of financial activity happens through computer and information systems
base money issuance and management is a responsibility of the US government - so it's always intermediated, even if by government-controlled systems
base money issuance and management is a responsibility of the US government - so it's always intermediated, even if by government-controlled systems
hybrid intermediation systems include all means of facilitating the issuance, servicing and transactions of USD and USD-denominated securities, including equities, bonds and derivatives
hybrid intermediation systems include all means of facilitating the issuance, servicing and transactions of USD and USD-denominated securities, including equities, bonds and derivatives
balance sheet capacity is heavily dependent on regulations (e.g. Basel III & local) hybrid intermediation systems facilitate access to the payment and credit channels SWIFT, FedWire and digital private USD claims like stablecoins & PayPal facilitate USD's movement and usage
balance sheet capacity is heavily dependent on regulations (e.g. Basel III & local) hybrid intermediation systems facilitate access to the payment and credit channels SWIFT, FedWire and digital private USD claims like stablecoins & PayPal facilitate USD's movement and usage
liquidity means availability, thus it comes down to being able to: 1️⃣ access USD credit 2️⃣ settle payments in USD this means balance sheet capacity and hybrid technological intermediation systems in place
liquidity means availability, thus it comes down to being able to: 1️⃣ access USD credit 2️⃣ settle payments in USD this means balance sheet capacity and hybrid technological intermediation systems in place
demand is created legal/regulatory environment and open market forces legal/regulatory environment includes international bilateral agreements and national laws open market forces influence the evaluation of USD against other currencies and assets
demand is created legal/regulatory environment and open market forces legal/regulatory environment includes international bilateral agreements and national laws open market forces influence the evaluation of USD against other currencies and assets
USD is the world's reserve currency, but what does that mean? for USD to be a reserve currency it must dominate in: 1️⃣ USD-denominated credit issuance (demand) 2️⃣ USD use a means of settlement for payments (liquidity) this dominance must be at least relative to alternatives
USD is the world's reserve currency, but what does that mean? for USD to be a reserve currency it must dominate in: 1️⃣ USD-denominated credit issuance (demand) 2️⃣ USD use a means of settlement for payments (liquidity) this dominance must be at least relative to alternatives
gold tariffs have been cancelled - just like I wrote in my thread on Friday (link below) you can read about the gold tariffs, their impact on the market and why they were likely to get removed here 👇 https://illya.sh/threads/@1754662712-1.html
it's official: gold tariffs have been cancelled - just like I wrote last Friday 😄 in fact, rumors started less than 30 mins after i wrote the previous post in the thread - and the full removal of tariffs on gold has been confirmed just now
gold tariffs are unlikely to stay for a long period of time expect them to be removed and/or heavily reduced soon just the fact that they happened adds longer-term upside pressure on its price of course, the markets will be volatile 😄
you can see how accurately gold price has been respecting the trend lines and channels you've seen in my graphs for months now 😄 gold tariffs ping-pong introduced volatility, but like i wrote in my other posts - its upside price pressure a new all time-high will arrive
new all time high for gold is near 😄
it took quite a bit of Python scripting and image editing to produce this cipher profiling graph 😄 161 TLS 1.2 ciphersuites were getting profiled by C code, which was then consumed by Python to produce the bars with algorithm names all had to be aligned and readable
converting PDF to HTML is tricky due to formatting, but I managed to produce an acceptable HTML version for highest fidelity use the PDF or Web PDF an LLM/AI Agent visiting the page should also be able to access and read the full thesis content, including HTML version
converting PDF to HTML is tricky due to formatting, but I managed to produce an acceptable HTML version for highest fidelity use the PDF or Web PDF an LLM/AI Agent visiting the page should also be able to access and read the full thesis content, including HTML version
added Transport Layer Security for Internet of Things/TLS for IoT master thesis page i wrote this master thesis as a part of my engineering degree (MSc Software Engineering and Distributed Systems) you can read it in HTML and PDF here's the link 👇 https://illya.sh/tls-for-iot-msc-thesis/
added Transport Layer Security for Internet of Things/TLS for IoT master thesis page i wrote this master thesis as a part of my engineering degree (MSc Software Engineering and Distributed Systems) you can read it in HTML and PDF here's the link 👇 https://illya.sh/tls-for-iot-msc-thesis/
so did Russia really buy more gold? yes! despite CBR's gold reserves remaining unchanged - Russia's NWF has increased its gold reserves Russia's National Wealth Fund interoperates with the Russian Central Bank, government deficits and the broader economy
IMF's 2024 annual report on SDDS compliance pointed out that Russia hasn't been meeting its requirements to the full extent, since they didn't disclose all of the required macro-financial data SDDS = Special Data Dissemination Standard
IMF's 2024 annual report on SDDS compliance pointed out that Russia hasn't been meeting its requirements to the full extent, since they didn't disclose all of the required macro-financial data SDDS = Special Data Dissemination Standard
if you noticed - the IMF template reported by Russian Central Bank is missing entries so they're actually supposed to report those values (or N/A - if it doesn't apply), but since the 2022 sanctions they have concealed some of the values
if you noticed - the IMF template reported by Russian Central Bank is missing entries so they're actually supposed to report those values (or N/A - if it doesn't apply), but since the 2022 sanctions they have concealed some of the values
IMF's guidelines mandate for the data to be either reported in Excel spreadsheet or SDMX IMF pls update the specs to require publishing in HTML - i will happily provide you with XML to HTML scripts 😄
