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Illya Gerasymchuk
Entrepreneur / Engineer

⬇️ My Thoughts ⬇️

User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-10 13:09

IMF's guidelines mandate for the data to be either reported in Excel spreadsheet or SDMX IMF pls update the specs to require publishing in HTML - i will happily provide you with XML to HTML scripts πŸ˜„

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and yes, to get this data i had to download an excel file from Russian Central Bank's website. that's a norm in banks's international balance sheet reporting HTML hasn't been discovered there yet πŸ˜„

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-10 13:03

and yes, to get this data i had to download an excel file from Russian Central Bank's website. that's a norm in banks's international balance sheet reporting HTML hasn't been discovered there yet πŸ˜„

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a clarification: the table is CBR's gold holdings in USD - so the value goes up if price of gold goes up and gold stock remains at least unchanged troy ounce holdings are released in an IMF-templated PDF report, but with a lag CBR's latest data is 79.4 M troy ounces of gold

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-10 12:57

a clarification: the table is CBR's gold holdings in USD - so the value goes up if price of gold goes up and gold stock remains at least unchanged troy ounce holdings are released in an IMF-templated PDF report, but with a lag CBR's latest data is 79.4 M troy ounces of gold

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both Russia & China increased their gold holdings since I wrote this πŸ˜„ indeed - central banks are continuing to buy the gold dips

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-10 12:00

China will win the AI race, but not because they're releasing better & more efficient models and are ahead of other sovereigns in terms of practical AI infrastructure and systems. These are side-effects AI/ML is about maths - and Asia dominates in that regard

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-09 18:40

regarding the IPO/privatization of Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac i wrote a thread explaining the role, function and use during QE of those GSE also their history and how they were used to lower mortgage rates after the 2008 GFC you can read it it here ⬇️ https://illya.sh/threads/@1754148538-1.html

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-09 15:44

stablecoin issuers would get this new credit, purchase treasury bonds and increase the supply of their stablecoin a new direct line from newly issued credit into treasuries πŸ˜„

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stablecoin issuers could intermediate the issuance process, so you don't need to get all credit institutions on-chain from the start non-algorithmic stablecoin issuance already happens off-chain and presumes trust in a third party this would just be faster. more liquidity

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-09 15:37

stablecoin issuers could intermediate the issuance process, so you don't need to get all credit institutions on-chain from the start non-algorithmic stablecoin issuance already happens off-chain and presumes trust in a third party this would just be faster. more liquidity

User

now imagine when credit institutions can tokenize new credit and allow automated stablecoin issuance backed by that credit in practice it's code in smart contract that wraps one token with another i created a similar project on an Ethereum hackathon ⬇️ https://github.com/iluxonchik/eth-lisbon-hackathon-23

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-09 15:30

now imagine when credit institutions can tokenize new credit and allow automated stablecoin issuance backed by that credit in practice it's code in smart contract that wraps one token with another i created a similar project on an Ethereum hackathon ⬇️ https://github.com/iluxonchik/eth-lisbon-hackathon-23

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-09 00:41

i wrote a thread about the rumored tariffs on gold and what that means for the gold price also what's coming next you can read the thread here ⬇️ https://illya.sh/threads/@1754662712-1.html

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-08 19:59

new all time high for gold is near πŸ˜„

User

this just adds further validity towards the consolidation before further upside for gold i've shared these gold charts since the beginning, while incorporating new trends as they emerge the price action has supported this throughout. notice the strong multi-trend support

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-08 19:58

this just adds further validity towards the consolidation before further upside for gold i've shared these gold charts since the beginning, while incorporating new trends as they emerge the price action has supported this throughout. notice the strong multi-trend support

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gold tariffs put further upside pressure for gold towards a new all time high on spot this is in addition to the global monetary, geopolitical and fiscal positive price pressures a significant part of the markets will be closed for the weekend. there could be a gap on reopen

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-08 19:53

gold tariffs put further upside pressure for gold towards a new all time high on spot this is in addition to the global monetary, geopolitical and fiscal positive price pressures a significant part of the markets will be closed for the weekend. there could be a gap on reopen

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πŸš€ gold futures NEW all time high above $3500 futures price is usually above spot. today's increase was caused by tariffs on gold used in COMEX & CME. i wrote a thread about that today i will keep this thread active at least until the spot price reaches a new ATH πŸ˜„

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-08 19:42

πŸš€ gold futures NEW all time high above $3500 futures price is usually above spot. today's increase was caused by tariffs on gold used in COMEX & CME. i wrote a thread about that today i will keep this thread active at least until the spot price reaches a new ATH πŸ˜„

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gold back to $3400 - trend lines & channels on the chart you can see where it's headed next πŸ˜„

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-08 19:22

gold tariffs are unlikely to stay for a long period of time expect them to be removed and/or heavily reduced soon just the fact that they happened adds longer-term upside pressure on its price of course, the markets will be volatile πŸ˜„

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the tariffs are not on all gold imports - just on a specific configuration - 100oz/1kg bars this alone won't skyrocket the price of gold, but it adds to the existing breakout pressure

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-08 18:16

the tariffs are not on all gold imports - just on a specific configuration - 100oz/1kg bars this alone won't skyrocket the price of gold, but it adds to the existing breakout pressure

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tariffs on gold decentivize gold imports higher import tax is a disincentive. not sure what' the benefit to having less gold come into US there's plenty of buyers in Asia who will happily take it. soon you will see more central banks expanding their balance sheets with gold

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-08 18:12

tariffs on gold decentivize gold imports higher import tax is a disincentive. not sure what' the benefit to having less gold come into US there's plenty of buyers in Asia who will happily take it. soon you will see more central banks expanding their balance sheets with gold

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when you see gold hitting a new all time high very soon - just remember that it wasn't caused by a single event gold has a growing buying pressure for monetary, geopolitical and fiscal reasons I've written about it in depth, so search through my post history if interested

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-08 18:10

when you see gold hitting a new all time high very soon - just remember that it wasn't caused by a single event gold has a growing buying pressure for monetary, geopolitical and fiscal reasons I've written about it in depth, so search through my post history if interested

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it's not only futures of course - the broader physical supply chain of gold is also affected the more imminent impact is on users of 1kg/100oz gold bars. in the future markets the effect is much more visible and quantifiable - so it will start the price movement from there

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-08 18:09

it's not only futures of course - the broader physical supply chain of gold is also affected the more imminent impact is on users of 1kg/100oz gold bars. in the future markets the effect is much more visible and quantifiable - so it will start the price movement from there

User

the demand from 100oz/1kg gold bars will be shifted to its other forms - whose prices will increase this will increase gold's spot premium in the US, putting upside pressure on the global spot price

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-08 18:05

the demand from 100oz/1kg gold bars will be shifted to its other forms - whose prices will increase this will increase gold's spot premium in the US, putting upside pressure on the global spot price

User

it's mostly 100oz/1kg gold bullion markers that will be affected - so you're looking at futures expect a larger basis trade (futures price higher than spot), which will eventually close down with tariffs in place spot is being pushed up towards futures

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-08 18:04

it's mostly 100oz/1kg gold bullion markers that will be affected - so you're looking at futures expect a larger basis trade (futures price higher than spot), which will eventually close down with tariffs in place spot is being pushed up towards futures

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gold tariffs means more upside price pressure US tariffs don't apply to all gold imports - only to 100 oz and 1 kg bullion bars, which are mostly used for CME/COMEX futures 400 oz London Good Delivery bars are tariff-free - those are used by dealers, central banks and ETFs

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-08 15:18

gold tariffs means more upside price pressure US tariffs don't apply to all gold imports - only to 100 oz and 1 kg bullion bars, which are mostly used for CME/COMEX futures 400 oz London Good Delivery bars are tariff-free - those are used by dealers, central banks and ETFs

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-07 21:45

gold back to $3400 - trend lines & channels on the chart you can see where it's headed next πŸ˜„

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πŸš€ gold approaching $3400. $3300 was a good price for longs - like I wrote a week ago currently gold is one of the only assets where leverage entails a much lesser risk upside price pressure is coming from several points

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-07 19:58

further deprecation of USD against Ruble now back to July 4th 2025 levels

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5 days ago I wrote that USD/RUB rate will fall. 5 days later it's down β‰ˆ2% despite oil being down - gold is up Ruble has hedge from multiple sides

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-07 12:24

8 month later after my initial post USD index is down β‰ˆ8%

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Bad news for #USD πŸ‘Ž The value of a currency is a direct reflection of the organic demand for it. Sanctions will decrease the demand for US Dollar, via disincentives Plus, it's the US consumer that will be paying for the tariffs, not the BRICS countries πŸ€·β€β™€οΈ

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User Illya Gerasymchuk -

2025-08-05 22:01

Basel III defines capital, leverage, liquidity and net stable funding ratios they're in the form of formulas, and regulations require minimum thresholds to be met I previously wrote about Basel III and its importance in financial markets here ⬇️ https://illya.sh/threads/@1753631798-1.html

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banks are also subject to regulations when issuing loans and no - it's not the fractional reserve system in many sovereigns, like the USA the reserve requirements sit at 0% there are other regulatory requirements limiting loan issuance

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