⬇️ My Thoughts ⬇️
Why would a Central Bank hold Bitcoin in reserves? 1. Even assuming that Bitcoin is an inflation hedge - it still doesn't mean that Central Banks should hold it. What would be the purpose of that? Central Banks are not commercial institutions - they hold assets for very specific reasons (e.g. FX rate stabilization). 2. You may have misunderstood me. I said that Bitcoin isn't money - but that by itself doesn't mean that Central Banks shouldn't hold it. FIAT currencies aren't money either. Neither are government bonds. BUT - those bonds or currencies generally don't crash >50% on cycle tops. So it's the fact that it's not money, combined with the other points I mentioned here and in the article that i linked 3. Kaspa isn't money. It certainly hasn't been long enough to be classified as money, nor it has enough intrinsic value. It carries the same set of technology risks as other cryptocurrencies- and even without looking at the chart - I can tell you that it's correlated to the rest of the crypto market. I am a big fan of crypto, but we need to keep it real 😄 Thousands of accounts on X with large following shill Bitcoin/Crypto non-stop, with little reasoning behind it. They either do it for pay, engagement or a mix of both. You don't have to look far - usually just search for "gold" on their profile and you'll find something like this (see screenshot). If you want to understand how Bitcoin is not gold, it will never be gold, and it will never replace gold - read this article: https://illya.sh/threads/bitcoin-needs-gold-gold-doesnt-need-bitcoin.html
Is the rotation from Gold to Bitcoin in the room with us? 😉 Over the past 2 weeks hundreds of X accounts with large following have been posting about an imminent rotation from gold to Bitcoin, once gold reaches a correction level. Their main argument seemed to be based on Bitcoin's historic price correlation - essentially "here are some select occurrences from the past where this happened, so it will happen now". Many of them went as far as claiming that gold has topped in this cycle (it hasn't). Local top for gold was reached, but rotation didn't happen. As I've been alluding to over this same timeframe - the reality in financial market is seldom this simplistic. In general, you should be very wary of market thesis that are too abstract, or fail to consider the macro picture.
Tokenizing European Long-Term Investment Funds (ELTIF 2.0) on a Public Blockchain Currently I'm working on a practical framework for tokenizing European Long Term Investment Fund (ELTIF) instruments on a smart contract-enabled public blockchain like Ethereum. While there have been some ELTIF tokenization initiatives by some funds in the EU - they all used non-public (e.g. in-house) distributed ledger technology (DLT) solutions, with scarce public information on the implementation details. The idea of fully on-chain ELTIF is attractive for several reasons: ➖ It taps into trillions of USD of readily available on-chain liquidity ➖ It reduces processing, compliance, distribution and infrastructure costs ➖It's fully compliant with the existing EU legislation In terms of DeFi, bridging the real world financial system on-chain enables investment vehicles, which are fully compliant with the legal systems in the EU, and by extension most jurisdictions. This increases the value of the whole DeFi ecosystem, by making it more attractive for institutional and retail investment. To date, there isn't a clear and practical framework for operating an ELTIF fund on a public, permissionless DLT. Such a framework must encapsulate not only the legal aspects (those already exist - the relevant regulations themselves!), but also the technical details of operating the ELTIF fund via smart contracts, while remaining fully compliant with the EU legislation. This is the gap that I’m aiming to address. I’ll be focusing on real-estate based ELTIFs - where the fund pools money from investors, invests it into real estate and collects yield from rents and appreciation, as it goes inline with my current area of work.
So the Fed will fully resume Treasury purchasing, as a part of their balance sheet expansion starting December 1st 2025 Not only all maturing Treasuries will be rolled over at auctions, but also all Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) principal will be reinvested into Treasury bills (<1 year duration) This will lower the duration of the assets on the Fed's balance sheet and contribute to debt monetization But that's not a surprise. 3 months ago I explained why interest rate cuts and the end of QT/start of QE is imminent
How exactly does Bitcoin break U.S. dollar control, when >90% of Bitcoin's buying volume is USD-derived (including stablecoins)?
IMPORTANT message from finance cat: "I hope you bought gold, silver and their miners. - October 2025"
All reserve currencies achieved reserve status under gold or silver standards And some still think that Bitcoin will be the next reserve currency. Judging by the actions of the sovereigns positioning their local monetary units for reserve currency position that is highly unlikely 😁 More specifically, China & BRICS are heavily buying gold, and they have openly discussed partly gold-backed currencies several times. In the EU, the ECB is very clear on their stance against adding Bitcoin to their reserves. Bitcoin doesn't exhibit the characteristics necessary for a reserve currency. If you believe that it does, then you need to start by explaining how it would integrate into the current financial system. Do not forget to consider Central Banks, wholesale debt markets and refinancing cycles. A potential role that Bitcoin may take is as collateral, for example in money markets. The problem is, that you will be inadvertently running into very large haircuts and low LTVs. So unless Bitcoin concisely keeps yielding higher highs, you'd be better off by using higher-quality collateral, such as government bonds or even equities. Another point comes down to risk. The more Bitcoin is used the more risky it becomes. Sure, you can say that the network also growth with usage, but in case Central Banks start holding Bitcoin - it becomes a geopolitical liability. It will become a matter of time before disruptive attack and compromise of private keys. Also, >90% of the buy volume of Bitcoin is in USD or its derivatives, such as USD-pegged stablecoins. So it's USD that's mostly invested there, not euros, renminbi or others. This makes Bitcoin extremely exposed to USD currency risk. Gold and silver have a much more modest exposure to the risks above. You don’t have to believe me - just look at the history. Since 500 BCE it's mostly been gold and/or silver - and Bitcoin doesn't change that. Accounts on X that relentlessly promote the idea of Bitcoin being money, and better money than gold fail to address these points.
a kind reminder that higher oil prices benefit Russia and Ruble U.S. puts sanctions on Russia --> Oil price increases --> Ruble price increases This is driven by how Russia's National Wealth Fund (NWF) operates, plus the fact that both NWF and Russia's Central Bank have almost no exposure to USD
🇷🇺 oil up is GOOD news for Russia & Ruble every surplus above $60/barrel of Urals oil increases FX reserves in NWF (Yuan or gold) - an interplay between MoF and CBR exporters pay taxes in Ruble - so higher buying pressure mark my words: 👉 you'll see USD/RUB exchange rate fall
GOLD: look for rejection at ≈$4155 if gold's price get rejected at that price level again - you'll likely see the fall to ≈$3900 target I described in my previous post it's a good idea to have the limit buy orders ready 😄
gold's lowest possible bottom for current correction is ≈$3900 (area) the uptrend will resume soon. given the FOMC meeting next week - if that bottom arrives it should be very soon - within the next week * this is trend analysis done in 5 mins, but likely a correct one 😄
gold's lowest possible bottom for current correction is ≈$3900 (area) the uptrend will resume soon. given the FOMC meeting next week - if that bottom arrives it should be very soon - within the next week * this is trend analysis done in 5 mins, but likely a correct one 😄